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As this is the last column of mine that will appear before election day, Id like to tell you a tale about the cattle driver political party of the mid-19thCentury, known as the Whiggamors (Ed: umwell see where this goes)

In response to the presidency of Andrew Jackson a man of questionable ethics and beliefs even in his own time an opposition party formed after Jackson was elected president in 1828. Jackson was a populist, in that he appealed to the regular people who were put off by what Jacksonians thought of as elites and stuck up educated folks. Jacksons xenophobia and other less than admirable personality traits were so off-putting that Henry Clay, Daniel Webster and others formed a new opposition political party to battle, well, Jackson and his ideas. Taking their name from the term Whiggamors, which meant cattle drivers, the gents who founded the party called themselves Whigs. The Whigs favored a national bank, protective tariffs, modernization, and a meritocracy. They were worried about tyranny in the presidency and found support among entrepreneurs, the professional class, bankers, reformers, and what we now call the middle class.

The Whigs got several folks elected to the White House, but ultimately the party fell apart and the members were largely subsumed by the emerging Republican party, which at the time was the liberal party on the political scene.

I bring up the Whigs as a gentle reminder to my GOP friends that political parties can rise and most definitely can fall when they grow out of touch with the American people. And while I certainly have my differences with the Colorado Republican Party, I am mostly talking about the national GOP, headed by Donald Trump, who appears to be embracing the destiny of the Whigs for his recently adopted party.

Todays Republican Party has cast off any meaningful ideology and has become a party based on expediency and seems dedicated to only one principle keeping power at all costs. Hypocrisy does not trouble Trump nor his congressional enablers such as Mitch McConnell and our own Cory Gardner. For Example, the Repubs dreamed up a fake rule to keep Obama from filling a vacant seat on the Supreme Court fully 237 days before the next election, yet showed breathtaking hypocrisy by rushing a (relatively) young and inexperienced but hard-line conservative onto the Supreme Court within just a couple of weeks before another election. As a military guy with a strong sense that honor is important, I do not understand how they sleep at night, but I digress

But the most recent offensive and evil actions of the national GOP have been around the issue of voter suppression. Let me state this as clearly as I can: study after study hasproventhat voter fraud is not I say againnot a significant problem in American politics. Yet the GOP claims that to protect the vote they need to take a series of actions that (by what they would claim is an amazing coincidence) disproportionately impact groups that tend to vote more Democratic. In recent days we have seen the Texas governor a loyal Trumper mandate that no county in Texas can have more than one ballot drop off box. Now, in many rural counties with tiny populations, such a restriction does not matter too much. But such is not the case in big counties. If I told you that, say, the entire state of Rhode Island had a single ballot drop off box for the whole state, would you find that troubling? Well, the Houston area of Texas has roughly four times the population of RI yet has only one drop off box. Why? To fight voter fraud that doesnt really exist? No, it is a policy designed to reduce Democratic turnout.

How about Iowa? My grandparents had a farm there where I often spent my summers. I love Iowa. Yet we find that the GOP there has gone against the CDC recommendations ofmorepolling places (to increase social distancing and make voting safer), and has actuallyreducedthe number of places to vote especially in urban areas where Dems are more likely to be.

You do not have to go to conspiracy theories about Trump to find proof of his corruption. Recall please that he already settled a suit for having a fake university (a $25M fine) and his personal foundation paid another $2M for cheating get this achildrens charity. Yet the modern GOP still rallies around him, blissfully untroubled.

And now, in the waning days of the campaign, one party is trying to make it easier for people to exercise their most sacred duty as a citizen casting a vote and one party is trying to make it harder.

I would urge the national GOP leaders to recall the fate of the Whigs. Their party collapsed and their legacy was squandered. History often repeats itself. The choices being made by the GOP today suggest a lack of historical awareness.

Republicans, to borrow a phrase, history has its eyes on you.

Hal Bidlack is a retired professor of political science and a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who taught more than 17 years at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs.

Originally posted here:
BIDLACK | Are Republicans the next Whigs? | Opinion - coloradopolitics.com

Several weeks ago, state Rep. Jon Rosenthal, a Houston Democrat in the midst of a tough reelection bid, made what he said was a big decision for his campaign.

He would resume door-knocking amid the coronavirus pandemic but only by himself, no staffers or volunteers. He said he now hangs his campaign literature on a voters door, rings their doorbell and then sprint[s] into the middle of their front yard to ensure more than enough social distance.

It gets me a few extra steps, Rosenthal jokingly said in an interview. I call it the candidate weight-loss plan.

Rosenthal said he has gotten a positive reception on the whole, noting voters have been cooped up for months and eager to talk to anyone, even a politician they disagree with. But not all Democratic candidates have returned to door-knocking, fueling a noteworthy divide with less than two weeks left before a high-stakes Texas election.

Facing headwinds up and down the ballot in the state, Republicans believe one bright spot has been their candidates willingness to resume in-person campaigning earlier and more aggressively than their Democratic opposition. There are obvious risks as the coronavirus pandemic rages on and Democrats believe they are being more responsible but Republicans insist they are pressing a real advantage while still being mindful of a public health crisis.

The biggest mistake the Democrats made and they will rue this is when they decided to become, to virtue signal, they werent gonna go door-to-door, Dave Carney, Gov. Greg Abbotts chief political adviser, said in a recent interview. Generally the Democrats have been ahead of us until the last couple cycles of door-to-door contact, and empirically, beyond any shadow of doubt, its the most effective way to communicate to voters, to engage voters, to get their commitment.

Carney said that every GOP campaign is door-knocking in the 24 battleground state House races that Abbotts political operation is targeting. A spokesperson for the Texas GOP said the party has mobilized volunteers across the state knocking doors in target House races, and almost every campaign has supporters pounding the pavement.

On Thursday, Abbott himself made a show of visiting Benbrook, a Fort Worth suburb, to go door-knocking with state Rep. Craig Goldman in his hotly contested reelection bid. On Saturday, he joined another endangered House member, Rep. Angie Chen Button of Richardson, in her district for a block walk.

Looking someone in the eye and asking for their support is a very, very powerful thing and I think its a huge advantage for Republicans right now, state Rep. Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, said last month.

While some Democratic candidates like Rosenthal have resumed door-knocking on a limited basis in recent weeks, Democrats are holding firm on being far more cautious in general than Republicans are when it comes to in-person campaigning.

If its not safe to trick or treat, its still not safe to go knock on a strangers door and ask for their vote, Celia Israel, chairwoman of the Texas House Democratic Committee, told reporters Wednesday.

Ahead of Halloween, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has asked Americans to avoid "higher-risk activities" including "traditional trick-or-treating where treats are handed to children who go door to door." But Shelley Payne, director of the University of Texas at Austin's LaMontagne Center for Infectious Disease, said in an email that political "door knocking can be done safely, if the appropriate precautions are taken."

"The person should wear a mask and step back at least 6 feet after knocking," she wrote. "A short conversation with social distancing, particularly if the campaigner is outdoors, should not present a significant risk."

Rather than campaign in-person, Democrats have been more focused on contactless lit drop delivering flyers to voters doors without seeking an in-person interaction and calling and texting voters. They argue they are reaching more voters those ways, anyway, and they scoff that Republicans are straining for any advantage they can pitch in a tough environment.

Plus, Democrats are glad to have the broader debate over which party has been more careful in responding to the pandemic.

It is clear that Republicans have not taken COVID seriously since Day 1, and there is a clear contrast between Republicans and Democrats on the issue, said Andrew Reagan, executive director of the House Democratic Campaign Committee. Democrats are following science and looking out for the best interests of all Texans.

It is not just the state House battle where the debate over in-person campaigning is raging. Across Texas battleground U.S. House races, the way that candidates are conducting their campaigns amid the pandemic has emerged as a top issue in some cases.

In the fight for Texas 23rd Congressional District, where Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, is retiring, GOP nominee Tony Gonzales has hounded Democratic rival Gina Ortiz Jones for not stumping in-person as much as him, arguing the district will need more than a virtual representative. During a debate earlier this month, Jones said her last in-person event was in March and argued she will always prioritize the health of voters here, unlike my opponent.

The contrast has come to a head in some striking ways. Take for example the first televised debate between U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, and his Democratic opponent, Wendy Davis. Roy appeared in the TV studio in San Antonio, while Davis participated virtually from her home in Austin.

Youve probably noticed that Congressman Roy and I are not in the same location because Congressman Roy chose to appear at the debate site and I did not, Davis told viewers in her opening statement. Those choices exemplify the differences that we offer you in our ability to lead this community through the pandemic and beyond.

As for voter contact, Davis said in a recent Texas Tribune interview that her campaign is not door-knocking, but we are lit dropping all over the district.

Its a similar story in the U.S. Senate race. While Democratic nominee MJ Hegar has ramped up in-person events lately albeit small, low-key appearances not meant to draw crowds her campaigns voter contact remains virtual, with contactless lit drop. The campaign of the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, is door-knocking in partnership with the state GOP.

Still, the state House contests are where in-person campaigning is generating the most discussion.

Carney said Democrats unilaterally disarmed on [door-knocking], which I think in these House races really matters. Phelan echoed the sentiment during a Texas Tribune Festival event last month.

There is nothing more powerful than standing on someones front doorstep, looking them in the eye and asking them for their support. Nothing, Phelan said. It cannot be replaced with digital advertising, it cannot be replaced with phone calls.

One Republican candidate who has gone all in on door-knocking is Will Douglas, who is running against state Rep. Rhetta Andrews Bowers, D-Garland. Douglas social media accounts are filled with photos of him posing with groups of block walkers, often with a mask on or pulled down under his chin.

Douglas said his campaign has knocked on over 46,639 doors since Aug. 3.

As a candidate for public office, it's my duty to show up and hear directly from all Texans, Douglas said in a statement. I'm meeting with voters at the doors or at the polls every day from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and it's going to take someone willing to put in that hard work to get our state back on track."

As for Rosenthal, he said he felt strongly that the way I won this seat was by being in person in peoples neighborhoods, knocking on their doors and taking to them where they are. He acknowledged, though, that the in-person route may not be for everyone in this moment.

I think its gonna be different for different people, he said, depending on their personal level of comfort and how they feel their district would react.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

Read the rest here:
Texas Republicans turn to door-knocking as the election nears an end - The Texas Tribune

American politicians have often sought to exploit the nations racial and ethnic divides for political gain. During the Trump era, voters are not responding as expected.

The gap in presidential vote preference between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk by 16 percentage points since 2016, according to an analysis by The Upshot, as Joseph R. Biden Jr. gains among white voters and President Trump makes inroads with Black and Hispanic voters.

Mr. Trumps exploitation of resentments over immigration and race helped fuel his 2016 victory, but similar tactics this time have not had the same effect. Polls show that many white voters have been repelled by his handling of race, policing and protests.

The decrease in racial polarization defies the expectations of many analysts. It may also upset the hopes of some activists on the left who viewed an embrace of more progressive policies on race would give Democrats overwhelming support from nonwhite voters, reducing the need to cater to the more conservative white voters who backed Mr. Trump four years ago. Instead, Mr. Biden leads because of gains among those very voters.

The presidents pitch hasnt resonated even among the kinds of voters who seem likeliest to be receptive. Trish Thompson, 69, a white Republican who works as a security guard for pipeline and fracking lands in Brownsville, Texas, is switching from Mr. Trump to Mr. Biden because of what she called the presidents appalling coronavirus response and his misogynistic behavior and his inability to acknowledge his racial discrimination.

Over all, Mr. Trump leads among white voters by only five points in high-quality surveys conducted since August, compared with a 13-point advantage in the final surveys in 2016.

Mr. Biden has tended to make his largest gains in Northern states, where the president made his largest gains four years ago.

Mr. Trumps support has proved resilient in the Sun Belt, bolstered by perhaps the single most surprising demographic trend of the cycle: his gains among nonwhite voters.

In recent national polls, Mr. Biden leads by 42 points among nonwhite voters. That is a lot, but it is about nine points worse than Mrs. Clintons lead in the final 2016 surveys.

New York Times/Siena College surveys suggest that the presidents gains are particularly significant among Hispanic voters. Mr. Biden holds only an 84-7 lead among Hispanic voters who said they backed Mrs. Clinton four years ago, compared with a 93-2 lead among Black voters and a 94-3 lead among white voters.

Mr. Biden has lost almost exactly as much ground among nonwhite voters as he has gained among white voters, but because white voters vastly outnumber nonwhite voters in the most important battleground states, the trade-off favors him.

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The elections big twist: the racial gap between Republicans and Democrats is shrinking. - The New York Times

State Sen. Kevin Priola was the most bipartisan lawmaker in Colorado last year, a moderate Republican who sided with Democrats more often than any of his GOP colleagues.

He was the lone Republican senator to support state tracking of greenhouse gas emissions, and the only one to join Democrats in a failed attempt to get voters to forgo constitutionally required tax refunds to generate money for schools and roads.

At the Capitol, Democrats consider the Adams County lawmaker a genuinely good guy, a thoughtful policymaker, and a friend, even.

But this is politics. And at election time, the size of the majority in the state legislature is purely a numbers game.

Thats what puts the most moderate Republican in the Colorado legislature at the center of the most expensive legislative race in the state, one in which dark-money funded super PACs are pouring cash into both sides in a district that can swing either way.

Outside spending on the race exceeds $3.8 million, making it the most expensive legislative race in the state, a Colorado Sun analysis showed. Of that, 44% is going to TV spots, digital ads and mailers opposing Priola. The amount towers over the $49,000 spent by Priolas campaign by mid-October and the $80,000 spent by his Democratic challenger, kindergarten teacher Paula Dickerson.

Priola, 47, has been knocking on doors from morning until sundown, while political newcomer Dickerson is teaching kindergarteners by day and dropping literature on doorsteps on evenings and weekends. At least, she was until she was exposed to COVID-19 by one of her students and went on a two-week quarantine that ends this weekend.

Nasty television ads and mailers funded by a Republican super PAC are highlighting Dickersons two bankruptcies, claiming she isnt fit to spend taxpayer dollars. Democrats are attacking Priolas record on health care and efforts to restrict abortion access. Theyre also calling on Adams Countys old-school, blue-collar party loyalists who may have been turned off by the current, more liberal version of the party to stand behind a school teacher who is married to a roofer.

By all accounts, the race is intense. But for Priola, it doesnt feel that much different than four years ago, when he defeated a Democratic incumbent to take the Senate seat in a race that also ranked as one of the most expensive in the state. The Henderson resident did it by hitting the sidewalks, by knocking the same doors three or four different times until someone opened up to chat. Often, they asked him about his father or his grandfather or the family business, a flower-growing operation called Priola Greenhouses Inc, which the family sold a few years back.

The main goal this time around, though, is to keep Priola from getting swallowed by a blue wave to get voters to see him for him instead of a Republican in a county where a majority voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Adams County is one of the last swing counties left in Colorado, a split of 29.6% Democratic, 27% Republican and 41.5% unaffiliated.

Most candidates get caught up in waves, a red wave or a blue wave, said Priolas campaign manager, Ryan Lynch. But not Kevin, because Kevin actually has relationships with a large number of the voters.

Priola estimates hes talked to more people at their doors than he did four years ago because during the pandemic, people were at home instead of at soccer practice or out for dinner. They were dying to have actual human contact, he said. Its a wealth of people being willing to let me ask them what was on their minds. In the past, I could count on one out of 10. Now its five out of 10 or more.

The senator wears a glove, offers to put on a mask, and stands 10 feet away. Mostly, people want to talk about how overwhelming life is this year from job loss to managing online school from home.

Priola, a real estate developer, tries to separate himself from national politics the same way he politely explains to constituents that the legislature isnt in charge of whether schools are open or that they should call their city officials to complain about local issues. When folks gripe that he is sending them way too much mail, Priola explains that its not actually him, but the political action committees pouring money into the race.

It wasnt me, sorry, he tells them. Its just the nature of the beast.

The fact that state Democrats would rather widen their majority in the Senate than have him around is no surprise to Priola.

Im a big boy. I understand politics, he said. Its a numbers game.

For Dickerson, a political newcomer, the ugliness involved in the race has been a bit shocking. She knew she would have to explain her two bankruptcies, but didnt realize how it would feel to see the attack ads blasting her credit card debt.

Dickerson, 51, said her family dug themselves into credit card debt after years of taking care of her mother, a three-time cancer survivor who lives just down the street in a house that Dickerson inherited from her grandparents. Dickerson and her husband helped her mother with her bills, including copays for medical treatment, and when they had tapped out their funds, she said, they began charging credit cards for food and other necessities.

She is on a payment plan to pay off her debt, and is scheduled to make 100% restitution in 2022, she said.

Priola, Dickerson said, has never had to worry about money and he has never had to make tough decisions.

It definitely feels like there is a lot at stake, that they are fighting really hard to keep his seat, she said. They know this seat can be flipped to blue.

In a story thats become familiar among suburban women, Dickerson said she felt motivated after President Donald Trumps election to get into politics. She felt a sinking feeling after the 2016 election and knew we had a lot of work to do, she said. A kindergarten teacher for 25 years and active in the teachers union, Dickerson enrolled in Emerge, a program that trains Democratic women to run for office.

Her top issues are health care, gun safety and as a teacher who sometimes spends her own money on classroom supplies school funding. She has the support of Moms Demand Action, which fights for tougher laws on gun safety, and the American Federation of Teachers. Dickerson speaks often about the disparity among schools in Adams County, from Commerce City to Brighton and Thornton.

Our schools are not failing, she said, theyre starving.

I know the people of this community, said Dickerson, who lives in Thornton and works for Adams 12 Five Star Schools. Her husband is a roofing specialist for Jefferson County School District. I have taught generations of children in this community. I am your neighbor and your public school teacher.

Dickersons campaign manager, Claire Johnson, is an English language acquisition teacher, helping students understand math and chemistry when English isnt their first language. She said one of the toughest parts of the campaign has been managing their day jobs along with the campaign. From our side as educators, its been pretty tough knowing everything that is happening out of class but still being present for kids and engaged in teaching all day, Johnson said.

Democratic super PACs, including Leading Colorado Forward, have spent $1.93 million on the Adams County race, while Republican counterparts, including Unite for Colorado Action, have spent $1.8 million

Dustin Zvonek, who runs Unite for Colorado Action, said the race is a target because Adams County is shifting. The area was once a Democratic stronghold, but Democratic voters have been soured by what Zvonek called job-killing regulations, particularly in the oil and gas industry. Based on the partisan makeup of the county, a Democrat should have won in 2016, but instead it was Priola.

Democrats are spending big to take out Priola, he said, because they see an opportunity, especially in a year when blue wins are predicted. Democrats are hoping Adams County holds its trend lines favoring them. Since 2014, their margin of victory at the top of the ticket races for governor and U.S. Senate have only grown.

At the end of the day, its partisanship, Zvonek said. The Democrats who control the state Senate today would much rather have another Democrat than Kevin Priola.

Tyler Sandberg, a Republican operative who has run various GOP campaigns, said Republicans can still win in working-class Adams County, a place where old-school Democrats dont fit the Boulder-Denver identity that is increasingly taking over the Democratic Party. The union supporters and blue-collar workers of Senate District 25 dont fit in with the far left-wing of the party that doesnt mind the term Democratic socialist, he said.

If candidates and campaigns matter, then Kevin Priola is the best chance of winning his race, Sandberg said. Hes the hardest working man in show business. He fits the district really well.

Priolas maverick voting record is a selling point to voters, a good fit in a county that is a stew of all types of voters and economic classes, Sandberg said. But in 2020, when even Sandberg is predicting a Republican bloodbath, will it matter?

Is the blue tsunami so powerful that there is nothing he can do? Sandberg asked.

For Democrats, who hold a 19-16 majority in the Senate, taking out Priola is nothing personal, though some of them feel a cognitive dissonance as they square their thinking about dark-money PACs trying to boot out their GOP friend.

But in the end, picking off Priola is just a core factor of the math, Sandberg said.

This is true, Senate Majority Leader Steve Fenberg said.

I like Kevin. We work well with him. I consider him a friend, Fenberg said. But elections, even local ones, rarely happen on an island, and there is no escaping the national conversation in 2020, he said.

Fenberg said he didnt realize Priolas race would end up this hotly contested, but now the Democrats have their sights on increasing its majority. If history is a good indicator, and if there is a Democrat in the White House, the party doesnt expect to fare as well at midterm elections in 2022. The long-game strategy is to increase the majority this year in the hopes of hanging onto it in 2022. State senators serve four-year terms, so this seat wont be in contention in two years.

Its in our interest in trying to run up the scoreboard this year, Fenberg said.

He questions whether GOP attacks on Dickersons personal financial struggles will backfire, especially at a time when many families are coping with job loss and faltering businesses. Fenberg said health care is top of mind during a pandemic, and while President Trump wants to disband the Affordable Care Act, he notes that Priola typically voted with his own party on health care bills. Priola was among several Republicans to vote against the 2019 reinsurance legislation to help health insurers pay some of their highest-cost claims, for example.

Yes, Kevin Priola is the most moderate Republican in the Senate, Fenberg said. I would argue thats a relatively low bar.

Sun correspondent Sandra Fish contributed to this report.

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Why Colorado Democrats are trying to unseat the most bipartisan Republican in the legislature - The Colorado Sun

Even if President Donald Trump retains enough rural strength to hold Texas in next week's election, which many still consider the most likely outcome, the swelling voter turnout in and around the increasingly Democratic-leaning cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and Fort Worth points toward a return to political competition in the state after more than two decades of almost uninterrupted Republican ascendancy.

Just alone in Harris County, which is centered on Houston, 1.15 million people had voted through Monday evening, compared with 1.3 million total in the 2016 election. The state's other big cities and inner suburban counties are experiencing comparable increases.

"We expected a lot of turnout," Lina Hidalgo, the Harris County judge (the equivalent of a county executive) told me. "We didn't expect this level."

"If the explosive growth in the urban centers and suburbs continues [for Democrats] that will be the whole ballgame," says Richard Murray, a longtime political scientist at the University of Houston who has forecast the 1 million vote metro advantage for Biden.

While Trump and other Republicans are consolidating crushing advantages in small-town and rural communities, Murray says, the stagnant or shrinking population in those places means Republicans "just can't keep pace with this big [metro] vote."

Republicans still have many advantages in Texas -- particularly overwhelming support in its sprawling rural areas -- and most observers consider Trump something between a slight and a substantial favorite to hold it.

And the consequences of failure are almost unthinkable for them: Given the Democratic dominance of other large states -- including California, New York and Illinois -- there is no viable path for Republicans to win the White House without holding Texas and its 38 Electoral College votes.

Losing Texas -- either next week or in 2024 -- would register in Republican circles as a uniquely powerful earthquake that would rattle their confidence in the party's direction and message, many GOP insiders agree.

A return to competition

"Texas is in transition on steroids now," Matthew Dowd, a former top adviser to Republican former Texas Gov. (and later President) George W. Bush, told me in an email. Dowd, who was earlier an adviser to top Democrats in the state, says that "Republicans will not be able to consolidate [control] again. The change is already past the point of doing that. They may still have slight advantage in 2022, but that advantage will dissipate in each year ahead."

Bill Miller, a prominent Texas lobbyist and consultant who has also worked for politicians in both parties, says he believes Republicans retain an advantage in Texas for now, particularly if Biden wins nationally.

In that circumstance, he says, Republicans would benefit from less attention to Trump -- who has repelled many suburban voters in Texas, just as in other states -- and more focus on the agenda Biden will try to pass, particularly his push for higher taxes on high-income earners and corporations. That could help the GOP recapture some of the suburban White voters now rejecting Trump, he says.

But even with those potential tailwinds, Miller agrees that the days of impregnable GOP control over the state have likely ended.

"It's never going to be the way it was," Miller says. "Six years ago, Republicans looked at a seat, they won it. The only races were [the] Republican primaries: who could be the most conservative. That's over. Now it's very competitive. It's not that Republicans have all the money and good candidates and Democrats don't. Now they have money and good candidates too. It's all in."

Even if Biden doesn't win the state, a commanding showing in the metro areas could lift Democrats seriously competing for as many as half a dozen Republican congressional seats and bidding to flip enough seats in the state House of Representatives to regain control of the chamber for the first time since 2002.

The New York Times poll released Monday showed Biden leading Trump across the 12 mostly suburban Texas congressional districts considered most competitive, terrain that almost entirely overlaps with the seats Democrats are contesting in the state Legislature. The University of Texas poll likewise showed Biden leading Trump in all four of the state's major metropolitan areas.

A new era of political competition in Texas would mark a back-to-the-future trajectory for the state. Like most Southern states, Texas, which seceded to join the Confederacy, unflinchingly supported Democrats for most of the first century after the Civil War. Although Republican John Tower broke through to win a Senate seat in 1961 (replacing Lyndon Johnson when he became vice president), the GOP didn't really establish a beachhead in the state until Republican Bill Clements won the governorship in 1978.

The next 16 years offered the longest period of sustained political competition in the state's history. The two parties alternated winning the governorship in the four elections from 1978 through 1990 (starting with Clements and ending with tart-tongued Democrat Ann Richards), and while Republicans easily carried the state in each presidential election over that period, Democrats maintained control of the state Legislature and US congressional delegation.

Over this era, the Republican coalition was centered on suburbs filled mostly with White voters who had joined a "White flight" exodus from cities as minority populations grew and who remained intently hostile to taxes. Democrats relied on a big urban vote combined with support in rural areas with voters whose ancestral loyalties to the party were so great that it was said they would vote for a "yellow dog" before a Republican (at least in state races).

"Historically, this is really hard to understand, the rural areas had been the base of the Democratic Party," says Garry Mauro, a Democrat who served as the state's elected land commissioner from 1983 through 1999. "The Republicans carried Dallas and Houston and Austin."

That competitive balance collapsed in 1994. In the backlash that developed -- especially across the South -- against Bill Clinton's chaotic first two years as president, Bush ousted Richards as governor that year, even though she remained personally popular. Democrats have not elected another Texas governor since.

Mauro was part of a class of tough and salty Texas Democrats (including Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock and state Comptroller John Sharp) who held their statewide offices against the Republican tide that year. But Bush and his political consigliere Karl Rove solidified Republican dominance over the state.

In 1998, Republicans -- with candidates including Rick Perry as lieutenant governor and John Cornyn as attorney general -- swept to control all of Texas' statewide offices, including the governorship, when Bush soundly defeated Mauro, the Democratic nominee, for reelection. Democrats have not won any Texas statewide office since.

Over the next few years, Republicans gained unified control of the Texas Legislature and haven't surrendered that since either, in part because of aggressive gerrymanders. Republicans have controlled a majority as well of the state's US congressional delegation since early this century and have held both US Senate seats since 1993 (when Lloyd Bentsen resigned to serve as Clinton's treasury secretary).

Factors for change

Long-term and near-term factors have combined to scramble this equation -- and to do so, as Mauro says, "faster than I thought, and I've been preaching it."

Less visible but also critical has been the shift of the state's population, economic activity and voting totals to the state's metro areas. The so-called "Texas Triangle," which extends from Houston in the Southeast to San Antonio in the Southwest and then north through Austin and Dallas/Fort Worth, accounts for more than 7-in-10 of the state's jobs and about three-fourths of Texas' economic output.

The Texas Triangle "is where all the population growth, all the job growth, all the talent is, where all the Californians are moving," says Steven Pedigo, director of the LBJ Urban Lab at the University of Texas at Austin. "Texas is growing, but it's all in metro. It's not in rural anymore; rural population is declining. It is a metro state."

The big change came in the state's 199 non-urban counties, which have become the foundation of the Republican Party: They've fallen from about 37% of the vote in 1980 to just over 23% now.

For years the political impact of this population shift was muted because Democrats did not make gains in the Texas suburbs comparable to their breakthroughs since the early 1990s in demographically similar communities elsewhere. More college-educated suburbanites in Texas than elsewhere are conservative on both social and fiscal issues, in part because a much greater share of them than in Northern suburbs are evangelical Christians. Largely as a result, Republican presidential nominees carried the full 27-county metro area, which comprises cities and their suburbs, in every presidential election from 1968 through 2012, according to the Murray and Cross study.

Democrats' growing margins

The change is even more apparent when looking at the five core urban counties inside the burgeoning Texas Triangle: Harris (Houston), Dallas, Travis (Austin), Bexar (San Antonio) and Tarrant (Fort Worth). In 2012, Obama won all of them except Tarrant but by a modest combined margin of about 130,000 votes. Four years later, Clinton again won all of them except Tarrant, with a more robust margin of 562,000 votes. Then in 2018, O'Rourke won all five of the core urban counties by a combined total of 790,000 votes -- six times as much as Obama's advantage only six years earlier. Whereas Obama won Harris County by 1,000 votes and Clinton by 162,000, O'Rourke pushed the margin to 200,000 votes.

Early voting has exploded across all of these metro areas in 2020. Harris County has seen an especially dramatic outpouring. Hidalgo, a 29-year-old Democrat and immigrant from Colombia who ousted an older White Republican in 2018, says that in 2016, the county invested $4.1 million to run the election.

This year, the county increased that to $31 million, funding an extensive array of innovative measures that have eased access to the polls, from expanding early voting sites and keeping them open longer to allowing drive-thru voting and even holding a 24-hour voting session later this week. In the process, Harris County has become a powerful example of what voter participation might look like if governments affirmatively make voting more accessible.

"If you build it, people come, and we have lowered the barriers to entry, to safe, secure election," Hidalgo told me. "We see that when you lower the barriers, it wasn't that people were apathetic -- they were ready to participate -- but it was hard [to vote]."

With the county poised to soon surpass its total 2016 vote, Hidalgo says it's not unreasonable to ask how close it can come to the total voter registration of 2.3 million: "I don't see why, with this energy, we can't get as close as humanly possible to that full participation," she says.

Likewise, Steve Adler, the Democratic Austin mayor, told me he expects record turnout there -- in part because the county has registered an incredible 97% of its eligible voters. Enough of them may show up, he says, to push the county's total vote this year up near 700,000, possibly 200,000 more than in 2016.

"That would be historic," Adler says. "The number of people that are voting that are young is just incredible. We're talking about over 35% of people voting in the city are under 40."

Not only is turnout up in Texas' core urban counties, but most observers also expect Biden to exceed Clinton's vote share in them and to match or even surpass the elevated levels of support that O'Rourke achieved in them two years later.

As a result, Murray projects that Biden could win Harris, Travis and Dallas counties by at least 300,000 votes each -- stunning numbers. Bexar and Tarrant (which Murray expects Biden to capture) could add another 200,000 votes to his pile. That could put Biden's total lead from the five core counties at roughly 1.1-1.2 million, about double Clinton's level.

The lingering Republican tilt in many of the suburban counties around this urban core will reduce the overall Democratic advantage in the Texas metro areas, but probably not by as much as in the past; Biden is likely to win several of the big Texas suburban counties (such as Fort Bend near Houston and Williamson outside Austin) and at worst significantly reduce the traditional GOP margins in several others (particularly Collin and Denton outside Dallas).

In all, Murray expects the 27 counties in the state's four big metro regions to cast a record 70% of the total vote, and to provide Biden a margin of nearly 900,000 votes. He expects the largely Hispanic counties to add another 350,000 votes to Biden's lead.

That might be a best-case scenario for the former vice president. But even if Biden doesn't quite reach those numbers, the question will remain whether Trump can squeeze out enough votes from the remaining non-urban, mostly White counties. He won 75% of the vote in those places last time and Murray, like most observers, expects he will match or exceed that again.

What's unclear is whether those counties can keep pace with the explosive turnout in the state's urban centers. Murray thinks they won't quite and their share of the statewide vote will slip to a little over 1-in-5, allowing Biden to narrowly capture the state.

Most others still give Trump the edge. Matt Mackowiak, an Austin-based Republican consultant, says it's a mistake to assume the early vote totals guarantee the non-urban share of the vote will decline. Trump will pull out plenty of rural votes, he says.

"If you are analyzing data right now and rural voter is behind suburban and urban, I don't think it means so much," he says, since those non-urban voters are more likely to vote on Election Day than early. If anything, Mackowiak says, compared with 2018, "the rural turnout is going to be so much higher, because they connect with Trump in a way they don't connect with Cruz."

The hurdles that remain

While optimistic that Biden will post strong numbers in the metro areas, many Democrats say they would feel better about their overall Texas prospects if the former vice president's campaign invested meaningful money in turning out voters in the predominantly Hispanic communities along the Mexican border, where participation historically runs low.

I spoke with O'Rourke on Saturday morning, when he was canvassing voters in Collin County, a diversifying Dallas suburb that may tilt away from Trump and the GOP this year.

"While you have a lot of concentrated spending in the Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston metro area because of competitive congressional and state House campaigns, there is a great opportunity for the Biden campaign to invest in the Rio Grande Valley, Laredo, El Paso," he told me. "If you are looking at a neck-and-neck presidential race [in the state] that is going to be won perhaps at the margin you need a presidential campaign to spend in those [areas]."

Mauro is equally frustrated. "When people spend a billion and a half dollars and they can't find money to spend in Texas, I'm sorry, that's pure stupidity," he says.

Beyond his choice to invest only modest sums there, Biden still faces formidable hurdles to capture the state this year. Mackowiak says the deep ideological contrast visible in the presidential race, around issues from taxes to the Supreme Court, may allow Trump to regain some college-educated suburban voters who drifted away from Cruz in 2018. (While Biden may reach 60% support from college-educated Whites in states such as Pennsylvania and Colorado, the latest polls released Monday show him still stuck in Texas well below the 44% of them O'Rourke carried.)

Turnout in the Hispanic counties may not reach the level Democrats need as well -- and, while media polls often have difficulty accurately measuring Hispanic sentiment, Monday's surveys also showed Biden failing to match Hillary Clinton's margin with those voters.

But if Biden wins the presidency with or without Texas, expanding the Democrats' beachhead in the Lone Star state -- with an eye toward fully contesting the state in 2024 -- would surely rank among the party's highest political priorities.

The state's GOP leaders have pursued "a shortsighted and destructive" posture toward the cities, says Adler. "Until we start having statewide Democratic leaders, who is the foil for Republican leadership? The foil in that situation is going to be cities. It used to be just Austin, and obviously we're still bearing the brunt, but it's more than just us."

Adds Hidalgo: "The leadership of the state has made a political calculus they would rather pander to a certain extreme than deliver to these urban areas."

With their decision to frame cities as a threat to their rural and small-town base, the Texas GOP leaders are closely following Trump's tracks. And huge margins in the preponderantly White and socially conservative rural strongholds, as well as incremental improvement among Hispanics, may indeed allow Republicans to hold the state in the 2020 presidential race and maybe the governor's contest that follows in 2022.

But it's not difficult to forecast that the party's prospects will steadily dim through the 2020s if it cannot reverse its erosion in the diverse urban and inner suburban counties growing inexorably in both economic clout and voting numbers.

If that happens, the GOP hold on Texas will become the biggest casualty of the trade Trump has imposed on his party of attempting to squeeze bigger margins out of small-town and rural communities that are shrinking at the expense of provoking greater opposition among cities and inner suburbs that are growing.

"There is obviously huge risk there," says Mackowiak. "You get to a point to where the math doesn't work anymore. I don't think we're there, but you can see the light at the end of the tunnel and it's not daylight. It's a train coming to run you over."

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Why the GOP hold on Texas is loosening - CNN