Mediaboss Marketing

Two senators have come under fire for suspiciously timed stock market trades that came right as the market tumbled in February amid the deepening coronavirus crisis: Republican Sens. Richard Burr of North Carolina and Kelly Loeffler of Georgia.

Both Burr and Loeffler have been accused of insider trading, and scandals such as this can have electoral repercussions, particularly if either is forced to resign. But what are the odds this might actually harm Republican chances of holding on to the Senate in November?

The GOP holds a 53-47 edge over the Democrats in the Senate, and while Democrats have a path to a majority, it is a narrow one. Assuming Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is unable to retain his seat in deeply Republican Alabama, Democrats will need to win four seats and also win the vice presidency to take back control. GOP incumbents facing reelection in at least four states Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina (the other seat, not Burrs) look to be in some danger, so Democrats might be able to thread the needle, especially if they can also win a seat in a state like Iowa or Montana. But it would certainly help Democratic chances if more Republican-held seats came into serious contention, which is where Burr and Loeffler might come in.

Lets start with Burr. As chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, he was privy to daily briefings on the coronavirus before it seriously hit the U.S. On Feb. 13, the senator sold off a huge share of his portfolio just before the stock market crashed. The Justice Department is now investigating Burr, and last Wednesday, the FBI seized a cellphone owned by the senator. On Thursday, Burr announced he was temporarily stepping aside as chairman of the Intelligence Committee during the ongoing investigation.

The question now is, will Burr resign? Burrs seat isnt up until 2022, but he could be forced out of office because of the scandal, and if he were, the timing of his departure could definitely affect the 2020 election.

Namely, if Burr resigned before Sept. 4, there would be a special election for the seat this November, which would add another battleground contest to the Senate map. North Carolinas other seat held by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is already shaping up to be an expensive, hard-fought contest, so another special election in the Tar Heel State could mean double trouble for Republicans. Its no wonder Tillis has tried to separate himself from the embattled Burr, saying in April that Burr owes everybody an explanation for the stock sales. And public opinion is against Burr, too, at least based on polling from a couple of left-leaning firms. In two March surveys of North Carolina from Data for Progress and Public Policy Polling, half of the respondents said Burr should resign while only about a quarter said he shouldnt.

However, even if some Republicans might want him gone, it seems unlikely Burr would leave office soon enough to necessitate a special election this November, as Republicans really dont want another swing seat in play this year. But if Burrs position were to become untenable and he was forced to resign before Sept. 4, a Republican would still be appointed in his place even though North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is a Democrat. North Carolina law requires the governor to appoint a replacement from a list of three candidates named by the incumbent party. (Regardless of when a resignation occurred, Cooper would have to appoint a Republican. But if the resignation happened after Sept. 4, the seat wouldnt be up for election until 2022.)

As for Loeffler, she was already up for election in Georgia this November, so a stock trading scandal could hit her hard. Loeffler has said that third-party account managers handle her portfolio, so she had no input in the trades, but the same day she attended a classified briefing about the coronavirus, she and her husband started selling millions of dollars worth of stock and invested in companies positioned to do well during the pandemic. Loeffler hasnt said whether the FBI has contacted her, but she provided records of the stock trades to the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Senate Ethics Committee.

Loeffler already appears to be quite vulnerable in her special election, too, which will be the first time she faces voters since Republican Gov. Brian Kemp appointed her to the Senate in January. A late April GOP internal poll conducted by Cygnal found that only 20 percent of voters had a favorable view of Loeffler compared to 47 percent who had an unfavorable impression. The survey also found her with just 11 percent support, well behind Republican Rep. Doug Collinss 29 percent. (If that seems especially low, remember the special election is a jungle primary in which all candidates run regardless of party.)

Granted, the Cygnal polls sponsor is allied to Collins, but even a survey conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of a group backing Loeffler ally Kemp found her polling at only 18 percent in the special election, about tied with Collins, who had 19 percent. For his part, Collins has been only too happy to try to connect Burrs case to Loeffler and attack Loeffler over her own stock dealings.

Its unclear, though, just how much Loefflers problems would harm the GOPs chances of retaining the seat. That is, just because Loeffler may be in trouble, it doesnt mean itll be easy for Democrats to take over the seat. After all, Georgia still leans toward the GOP and although former state Rep. Stacey Abrams came close to defeating Kemp in 2018, the last time a Democrat won a statewide election was in 2006. At this point, major election handicappers still think Republicans will hold the seat.

That said, with six Republicans and eight Democrats on the ballot in the jungle primary (plus six third-party or independent candidates), its also pretty unlikely that one candidate will win an outright majority in November, which means its likely headed to a runoff in January 2021 anyway. Based on early polling, Collins may be the most likely Republican to advance to a runoff, and he might be as good a bet or a better one given Loefflers troubles for Republicans to hold on to the seat, especially as Georgia Democrats have historically struggled in general election runoffs. In fact, with eight Democrats running, theres even a chance that it will be Collins and Loeffler who advance to the runoff, ensuring continued Republican control of the seat.

Its worth noting Burr and Loeffler arent the only senators who have come under scrutiny for their stock trades. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California recently spoke with FBI investigators regarding deals made by her husband, and suspiciously timed stock moves made by Republican Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma have also received attention. However, both the California and Oklahoma seats would be very unlikely to switch parties California being very Democratic, Oklahoma being very Republican so even if Feinstein or Inhofe got into trouble, their problems would be very unlikely to affect the makeup of the Senate. Thats not necessarily the case for Burr and Loeffler especially Burr if he were to resign before Sept. 4. Nonetheless, its still a longshot that likely wont alter the Senate election math in 2020, either.

See the article here:
Are These Scandals Going To Hurt Republican Chances Of Holding On To The Senate? - FiveThirtyEight

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp will be permitted to hand-pick the state's next Supreme Court Justice after that same high court ruled last week that a special election set for Tuesday could be canceled.

Kemp and his Secretary of State, Brad Raffensberger, moved to cancel votingin the stateearlier this year after state Supreme Court Justice Keith Blackwell announced he would step down after his six-year term expires at the end of 2020.

Taking the matter of who should succeed Blackwell into his own hands will allow Kemp, a Republican, to appoint another right-wing judge to serve on the highest court in the state for at least two years. Like the U.S. Supreme Court, the nine-member Georgia Supreme Courtthough most of its member recused themselves from ruling on this caseenjoys a Republican majority.

Both the Democratic and Republican former lawmakers who were running for the seatJohn Barrow and Beth Beskinfiled lawsuits to have the election reinstated, but the state SupremeCourt sided with Kemp last week in a 6-2 vote.

Kemp narrowly won his 2018 gubernatorial race while serving asSecretary of State,a role in which he purged 53,000 mostly African-American voters from the state rolls.

On Tuesday, radio host Joe Madison called the governor's move an attempt at "rigging" another state election.

Six of the state's Supreme Court justices recused themselves from the case, forcing fivelower court judges to participate in handing down the ruling.

As Ian Millhiser explained at Vox, the Georgia state Constitution makes Kemp and Raffensberger's actionstechnically legal:

The court's decision inBarrowturns on the tension betweentwo provisions of the Georgia Constitution. The first provides that "all Justices of the Supreme Court and the Judges of the Court of Appeals shall be elected on a nonpartisan basis for a term of six years," and that the terms of these judges "shall begin the next January 1 after their election." Because this language refers to "all Justices," it suggests that an election must be held to fill Blackwell's seat, and that whoever prevails in that election shall join the state Supreme Court on the first of January.

SCROLL TO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT

Get our best delivered to your inbox.

But a separate provision of the state constitution permits the governor to temporarily fill vacancies on the state Supreme Court, and it provides that "an appointee to an elective office shall serve until a successor is duly selected and qualified and until January 1 of the year following the next general election which is more than six months after such person's appointment."

"The second provision seems to suggest that an appointed justice may serve until January 1, 2023and longer, if that justice eventually wins the 2022 election," wrote Millhiser.

Justice Brenda Holbert Trammell cast one of the dissenting votes, writing in her opinion that while she does not object to gubernatorial appointments overall, the people of Georgia should have retained their right to vote for their next state Supreme Court justice.

"In this instance, when the resignation will not result in a vacancy in the office until (originally) almost six months after the election, I cannot in good conscience agree that the election should be cancelled and the will of the people thrust aside as 'fruitless and nugatory,'" wrote Holbert Trammell.

As Daniel Nichanian, editor of The Appeal, tweeted, Kemp also recently acted to suspend a county race in order to retain a District Attorney position for the Republican Party.

When Athens-Clarke and Oconee County DA Brian Mauldin, a Democrat, announced in February that he would not seek another term, Mauldin asked the governor to appoint an interim DA "promptly" so former state lawmakerDeborah Gonzalez, who was planning to run as a progressive reformer, could run against the interim DA in November.

"Kemp, however, did no such thing," wrote Jay Willis at The Appeal last week. "By failing to act by May 3, six months before Election Day 2020, he ensured that whoever he eventually picks won't face a challenger until Election Day 2022 at the earliest. Gonzalez, the would-be reformer, will have to wait until then for a shot."

"As governor, Kemp has pivoted from hollowing out democratic elections to simply cancelling them," added Willis.

Link:
Think Trump and Republicans Wouldn't Try to Cancel an Election? Look at What GOP in Georgia Just Pulled Off - Common Dreams

Evan McMullin, who gave Trump a scare in Utah in 2016. Photo: George Frey/Getty Images

Recently I wrote about the evolution of the Never Trump Republicans those elite-heavy conservatives who could not bring themselves to accept the hostile takeover of their party by the bizarre and mendacious right-wing populist into what is effectively a faction in the Democratic Party. They do have some rank-and-file counterparts in the electorate voters who moved from R to D even as some culturally conservative economic nationalists moved from D to R and they are loosely affiliated with Democratic moderates. Thus they are reasonably happy with Joe Biden as a presidential candidate.

One of the Never Trump leaders I mentioned, Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin (remembered by many as among the most passionate supporters of Mitt Romney in 2012), clarified my conclusion with this very specific statement of self-identification:

We can happily embrace [Biden]. I would have been prepared to crawl over broken glass to vote foranyonebut Trump yes, even Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) because of my conviction that Trump is a menace to democracy and now a danger to our very lives. It would not have been a pleasant choice, and many NeverTrumpers would not have joined me. Thankfully, we were spared the Sanders-vs.-Trump match-up

[M]any people ask: Are you all big-D Democrats now? My answer is it depends. I am a Pat Moynihan Democrat, a Scoop Jackson Democrat, an Andrew Cuomo Democrat. Im not a Bernie Sanders Democrat. So where does that leave me? Where I have been for just about four years: a center-right member of the Resistance, an advocate for good governance and internationalism (including free trade and robust legal immigration) and a passionate believer in the American creed. The best answer perhaps to the partisan affiliation question is that it is a time for creative policy and civility, so we will focus on that.

I assume readers are fairly familiar with Andrew Cuomo. But as a boomer translation for younger generations, Senator Henry Scoop Jackson was a strongly pro-defense and anti-communist, labor-aligned Democrat in the Harry Truman tradition who ran for president in 1972 and 1976. The more recently active Daniel Patrick Moynihan was an intellectual associated with the early neoconservative movement who served in the Nixon and Ford administration before reverting to his Democratic heritage and becoming a generally conventional liberal senator, representing New York for 24 years. So its a rather refined sort of brew that Rubin is now imbibing. Other Never Trumpers would probably define themselves differently. But for the most part they no longer imagine some post-Trump future in which they will rejoin and dominate the GOP.

Thats for the most part. For there are apparently some bitter-enders so committed to this alternative future for their old party or unreconciled to Democrats as an alternative that they plan to haunt Trumps convention in Charlotte, according to the Post:

Conservative critics of President Trump will hold a convention of their own during the Republican National Convention, with plans to craft their own statement of principles and offer it to a post-Trump electorate

The Convention on Founding Principles is scheduled to run from Aug. 24 to Aug. 27 in Charlotte, the city hosting this years RNC. The Republicans for a New President campaign, the chief organizer of the event, is planning an online component and a backup plan for a virtual convention if the RNC is canceled.

Apparently this group grew out of a rump gathering of conservatives during the Trump-crazy CPAC confab earlier this year. And there is one quite familiar figure leading their efforts:

The Trump administration has failed, and thats provided us with an opportunity to offer an alternative vision, said Evan McMullin,who ran against Trump as an independent in 2016and has been part of multiple anti-Trump efforts since then. Well be ready in the wake of what we see as a coming Trump defeat.

McMullin, you may remember, offered himself as an independent conservative alternative to Trump in 2016, winning around 700,000 votes nationally, and doing notably well in his home state of Utah, where many fellow Mormons rallied to his banner, and in next-door Idaho. In other words: He did well in his home region and in a state where there was no serious risk that Hillary Clinton would win. So hes had no particular temptation to leave his party, and the event in Charlotte seems to be open to any conservative who doesnt like Trump, regardless of what they plan to do about it:

The August event, said McMullin, would more closely resemble an actual political convention. There will be debates and voting on a statement of the attendees principles, and a vote on whether they supported a particular candidate for president presumptive Democratic nomineeJoe Biden, or a well-known third-party candidate. (Michigan Rep. Justin Amash,who is seeking the Libertarian Partys nomination for president, has been praised by many anti-Trump conservatives.)

As Im sure McMullin & Co. know, the regular Republican Party has few if any remaining doubts about Trump or Trumpism. If some privately hope for a different party when the great demagogue has moved on, they are very definitely keeping it to themselves. Some will show their fidelity to MAGA by mocking the Never Trumpers and their event:

These Trump haters are sad, pathetic, and irrelevant, said Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtagh. President Trump has united Republicans and has unprecedented support within the party. Hes also attracting non-Republicans and making huge inroads with blacks and Latinos. He will be reelected in November.

Whether or not Trump wins (or has anything like huge inroads with blacks and Latinos), the elephants soul belongs to him for the time being. And those Never Trumpers who have looked at their options and switched parties seem to have a brighter future.

Daily news about the politics, business, and technology shaping our world.

Read more:
Never Trump Republicans to Hold Their Own Convention in Charlotte - New York Magazine

Donald W. Bohlken, Iowa View contributor Published 9:23 a.m. CT May 19, 2020

During the May 18, 2020, daily COVID-19 news conference, Gov. Reynolds announces the move to real-time reporting of testing data. Des Moines Register

The Registerpublisheda seriesof guestessays promoting two biases:(a) that undisputed science requires a continuing stay-at-home "lockdown" to fight the pandemic and (b) that only Republican leaders ignore this "science," with bad results.

There is real scientific debate about the pandemic.There are, for example, five wildly divergent models predicting coronavirus deaths, varying from 1,200 to 3,700 deaths per day, for a date when actual deaths were 2,000. The most accurate model was "loudly and publicly" criticized by epidemiologists.

One would never know from the essays that scientists have advocated for less restrictive, non-lockdown measures. Dr. Scott Atlas recommends: "Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick, andopen most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions."

The Swedish model, allowing many businesses to remain open, while practicing limited social distancing, has been praised by Dr. Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization's executive director for health emergencies.

Britain's National Institute for Health Research concluded that stay-at-home orders and closing of all non-essential businesses are ineffective anti-pandemic measures.The Woods Hole Oceangraphic Institute concluded: "Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic."

The proposition that Republicans have ignored science is preposterous.Dr. Anthony Fauci concluded Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds was doing a "very good job."He confirmed that President Donald Trump approved his two recommendations to enact and prolong strong mitigation measures.Fauci agreed that Trump's ban of travel from China and elsewhere saved lives.

Reynolds did not follow the"science" that prompted Democratic New York Gov. AndrewCuomo to order nursing homes to admit patients with the coronavirus or Democratic Michigan Gov. GretchenWhitmer to outlaw commerical lawn careand motorboating.

The primary goal of mitigation measures was to ensure that our healthcare system was not overwhelmed.It was not overwhelmed.

Trump dispatched hospital ships, set up new hospitals, distributed and increased production of ventilators and personal protective equipment. No person died because he was denied a ventilator. Cuomo and California's Gavin Newsom, another Democrat, both praised the president's actions.

As of May 14, there is no region of Iowa with less than 37% of hospital beds, 73% of ICU beds, and 76% of ventilators available. Iowa's healthcare system is not overwhelmed.

The Iowa trend of new COVID-19 cases per week has been decreasing dramatically, from 3,911 for May 1 to 7 to 2,616 for May 8 to 14.New cases per week decreased nationally, from 185,594 for May 1 to 7 to 164,081 for May 8 to 14.

The COVID-19 Rt value is trending down, according to rt.live.The value estimates how many persons an infected person is likely to infect at a given time.If the number is over 1.0, we can expect COVID-19 to spread.If it is maintained under 1.0, we can expect the epidemic to slow. Forty-eight states states now have an Rt below 1.0.Six weeks ago, only 14 states had an Rt below 1.0.Iowa's Rt score is now 0.88.Six weeks ago it was 1.21.

The policies of Republican leaders worked.

Donald W. Bohlken(Photo: Special to the Register)

Donald W. Bohlken of Indianola is an attorney and a retired administrative law judge with the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals.

Read or Share this story: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/iowa-view/2020/05/19/coronavirus-iowa-policies-republican-officials-have-worked/5214531002/

Original post:
Contrary to what you keep hearing, the COVID-19 policies of Republican officials have worked - Des Moines Register

Published 3:09pm EDT, Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Kim Healy will run for the 26th state Senate District on the Republican line in November.

Kim Healy will run for the 26th state Senate District on the Republican line in November.

Kim Healy will run for the 26th state Senate District on the Republican line in November.

Kim Healy will run for the 26th state Senate District on the Republican line in November.

Republicans choose Healy of Wilton to run in 26th District

WILTON Kim Healy of Wilton will be the Republican standard bearer in the race for the 26th District Senate seat for the Connecticut General Assembly.

Healy won the nomination to oppose Democratic incumbent Will Haskell at Monday nights virtual state convention. The 26th State Senate District is comprised of seven towns including Redding, Ridgefield, and Wilton and parts of Bethel, New Canaan, Weston and Westport.

With the right leadership, I am confident we can turn things around and restore hope in Connecticut for the next generation, Healy said in accepting the nomination.

Healy believes changing the political leadership in Hartford will prevent the enactment of harmful school regionalization policies and move Connecticut toward a more sustainable future.

She was nominated by former state Sen. Judith Freedman, who represented the district from 1987 to 2008.

Kim is a highly energized, knowledgeable candidate who will bring a lifetime of experience to the state Senate, Freedman said. I am proud to support her.

William Lalor of Wilton seconded the nomination. I am proud to offer my enthusiastic endorsement of Kim Healy. She is a breath of fresh air who offers voters the important perspectives of a mother and community volunteer who has been a business professional. She will work hard to be an authentic advocate for her constituents.

Healy is a CPA and was an auditor for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. She has more than 20 years of volunteer experience, most notably as a tax preparer through the AARP, and as treasurer of the Wilton Library.

She is also involved with her childrens schools, Minks to Sinks, and Wiltons Warrior Helpers. She previously served as treasurer of the Wilton Youth Council.

Healy has lived in Connecticut since 1994 and moved to Wilton in 2008. She four children, ages 22 to 13.

For information, visit kimhealyforct.com.

The rest is here:
Republicans choose Healy of Wilton to run in 26th District - The Wilton Bulletin