Mediaboss Marketing

Republicans have a problem. It's called governing.

For the past three elections, Republicans have rallied support to take over Congress and the White House by blaming President Barack Obama and Democrats for everything. The excuse of the Obama presidency and Democratic control of Congress is over.

Now Republicans have no one to blame but themselves. Six months into the year, not a single piece of major legislation has passed. If Republicans cannot produce and pass meaningful legislation on health care, tax reform, deficit and debt reduction, regulatory reform and strengthening the military they will answer for it at the ballot box next year.

This week, the Senate's substitute for the Affordable Care Act, the Better Care Reconciliation bill, died before ever making it to the Senate floor. Four Republican senators two conservatives, one moderate and one libertarian announced they would not support the measure. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell responded by saying he would bring to a Senate floor vote a simple repeal bill, which would not take effect for two years, giving lawmakers time to craft a replacement. Even though Senate Republicans passed a similar bill in 2015, that effort died as well when moderate senators voiced their opposition to repealing without replacing. With a two-vote majority, McConnell has little room for error.

To those of us who served in Congress during the original Obamacare debate, it is not surprising that moderate Republicans oppose repealing the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Once an entitlement program is received by the public, taking that benefit away is hard political sledding. Fiscal conservatives argued at the time that the United States could little afford a costly new program with a federal government $12 trillion in debt (today the debt is $20 trillion!).

Support for that position was found last week in a little-covered report by the trustees of the nation's largest entitlement programs. The trustees announced Social Security will be exhausted in 17 years (2034) and Medicare in 12 years (2029). Think that 2029 is far away? Does 2005 seem that long ago? Under current law, when the Social Security trust fund runs out, benefits will be slashed by 25 percent. In other non-headline-worthy news, the federal government managed to run another $90 billion in the red for the month of June even during a pretty good economy.

What should Senate Republicans do?

Split the replacement package into single-issue reforms and work to gain a consensus of 50 Republicans on each. For example, call a vote to abolish the taxes imposed by the Affordable Care Act. Call another vote to repeal, in whole or in part, Medicaid expansion. To soften the blow to states that have expanded Medicaid, consider limiting the expanded coverage to one year, much like an unemployment benefit, to encourage people back into the workforce. Call another vote to shore up the exchange to reduce premium increases. This single subject approach may garner 50 votes (with the vice president putting the measure over the top). A few moderate Democrats may even lend their support. Partial reform would be a better result than leaving the failing Affordable Care Act in place.

Having made some progress on health care, Congress could move on to the more important issue of tax reform and deficit reduction. Americans need a modern tax code that encourages business creation, hiring and expansion. The result would be more Americans working, rising wages and greater receipts by the federal Treasury to move us toward a balanced budget. The federal government is headed toward a fiscal crisis with 2 percent annual GDP growth and exploding entitlement costs (42 percent of federal spending!). The solution is for America to grow its way out.

Congressional Republicans would be wise to work through the August recess instead of heading home empty-handed. There is scant time for Republicans to post some legislative wins before next year's election cycle starts. It's time for Republicans to step up, or Americans will move them out of the way.

George LeMieux served as a Republican U.S. senator, governor's chief of staff and deputy attorney general.

LeMieux: Republicans need results or risk losing in 2018 07/20/17 [Last modified: Thursday, July 20, 2017 3:01pm] Photo reprints | Article reprints

See the original post here:
LeMieux: Republicans need results or risk losing in 2018 - Tampabay.com (blog)

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a member of the Armed Services Committee and the Judiciary Committee, responds during a TV news interview to a question about President Donald Trump's administration and ousted national security adviser Michael Flynn, Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2017, on Capitol Hill in Washington.

J. Scott Applewhite, AP

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, had a blistering message for members of his own party in a Capitol Hill press conference Thursday as he and Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, pushed their bill Thursday to grant legal status and a path to citizenship for some immigrants who came to the U.S. illegally as children.

Graham and Durbin are reviving a new version of the bill, which has been introduced in previous years in the Senate, as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program faces legal challenges in court. Graham said he appreciates the Trump administration's stated priority to prioritize deporting "bad hombres" who are in the country illegally and have committed crimes, but urged the president and fellow Republicans to treat law-abiding immigrants whose parents brought them as children "fairly."

"The question for the Republican Party is, what do we tell these people? How do we treat them? Here's my answer. We treat them fairly. We do not pull the rug out from under them," Graham said, adding those immigrants, "are no more connected with a foreign country than I am."

"So to President Trump, you're going to have to make a decision," Graham said. "The campaign is over. To the Republican Party, who are we? What do we believe? The moment of reckoning is coming. When they write the history of these times, I'm going to be with these kids."

Play Video

"If the president of the United States says something, you should probably take him at his word," Kelly said to "Face the Nation" moderator John ...

The DACA program, implemented under President Obama in 2012, protects immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. On the campaign trail, Mr. Trump said he would "immediately" end that protection, but reversed course on that hard-line stance after taking office. The Department of Homeland Security last month said DACA recipients "will continue to be eligible" for renewed status, and the president has called DACA a tough issue to decide.

Durbin said more than 780,000 people have signed up for DACA since 2012, and one million might qualify. The program has attracted the most applicants from Mexico, followed by El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, according to federal records.

The legislation Graham and Durbin are introducing requires applicants to be in the country for four years or longer, have been 17 years or younger when they arrived in the U.S., graduate from high school or obtain a GED, be employed for three years, and pass a criminal background check and English proficiency test.

Graham joked those last two requirements would eliminate many of his own relatives.

"What I've described would knock half of my family out," Graham said.

Play Video

A young woman was detained in Mississippi shortly after speaking out on immigration. Daniela Vargas, a "DREAMer" who came to the U.S. as a child,...

Graham said the Senate has an obligation to these minors, who "took President Trump up on the offer" to stay in the country.

"These DACA kids have come out of the shadows at the invitation of their government," Graham said.

Graham said he wouldn't be supporting the legislation if he didn't have confidence that the federal government will be tightening its borders to restrict illegal border crossings in the future. Mr. Trump still says he plans to build a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border, although progress on that wall is moving more slowly than initially planned.

Durbin said he's "hopeful" that even in today's "anti-immigrant climate," the Senate would be able to work together on this issue.

"I think this is the one area of immigration where we can find common ground," Durbin said.

2017 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

See the article here:
Graham tells Republicans "moment of reckoning" is coming on Dream Act - CBS News

The gender gap is making a comeback.

Doubts about Hillary Clinton among womenespecially working-class whitessuppressed her advantage with female voters during the 2016 campaign over Donald Trump, despite the widespread concerns they expressed about his character and qualifications in polls.

But without Clinton as a contrast, Trumps support among women has skidded since he took office. And, at least for now, the president is dragging down congressional Republicans with him, according to new results from a national ABC/Washington Post survey released Wednesday.

Will the 'Trump 10' Pay a Price in 2018?

Overall, the poll found Democrats holding a strong 52 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans when registered voters were asked if they preferred that the next Congress [is] controlled by the Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, or controlled by the Republicans, to support Trump's agenda.

And it found Democrats facing what has become their usual midterm dilemma: The groups that express the most opposition to Trump, and resistance to congressional Republicans, are young people and minorities who show less initial inclination than older whites to vote in a non-presidential election. The most ominous finding in the survey for Democrats is that registered voters who strongly support Trump now express more determination to vote next year than those who strongly oppose him.

But the survey also points to the opportunity for Democrats to assemble a broader coalition than they have mustered in recent congressional electionsparticularly among women voters uneasy about Trump.

Compared with the results of the national exit polls measuring voter preferences in last years election, the ABC/Washington Post survey found more erosion for Republicans among women than among men. That may reflect both doubts about Trumps performance and resistance to the GOP plans to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, which appeared to hit another dead end in the Senate this week.

The Election Day surveys found that men preferred Republican candidates for Congress by a 12-point margin, 55 percent to 43 percent. Women preferred Democratic congressional candidates by 10 points, 54 percent to 44 percent. In each case, that preference tracked closely with their vote in the presidential contest, where men gave Trump a 13-point edge and women preferred Clinton by 11 points.

In the new survey, the GOP congressional advantage has narrowed among men to a 4-point marginan 8-point decline in the partys lead since last falls vote. But Democrats recorded a gain more than twice that large among women in the survey. Compared with Democratic congressional candidates 10-point edge with female voters last November, the survey showed women now prefer a Democratic Congress by fully 28 percentage points, 59 percent to 31 percent.

The movement among voters stands out even more vividly when looking at key groups within the white electorate. (Among non-white voters overall, the poll shows very little shift since last fall: In the exit polls, they preferred Democrats for Congress by a 50-point margin, and they lean toward Democrats in the new survey by 51 percentage points.)

The ABC/Washington Post survey shows Democrats making some gains among both blue- and white-collar white men. In 2016, white men without a college educationTrumps best grouppreferred Republicans for Congress by a crushing margin of 70 percent to 27 percent. In the new survey, support for Democrats among those men has edged up to 34 percent, while backing for Republicans has dropped to 60 percent.

Among white men with a college education, Democrats have gained virtually no ground: They attracted 38 percent last fall and draw 40 percent in the new survey. But more of those voters are now undecided: Republican support with them has fallen from 60 percent in the exit poll to 47 percent in the new survey.

In both cases, white women have shifted more toward Democrats than white men with a comparable level of education.

In the 2016 exit poll, Democratic House candidates ran even with Republicans among white women holding at least a four-year college degree. That was somewhat better than the partys performance among those women in the past three congressional elections, but a disappointing result for Democrats nonetheless, given the widespread personal antipathy those women consistently expressed for Trump in polls. Though Clinton won a majority of those voters, her 51 percent support among them also underperformed expectations.

In the new survey, those women have turned decisively against Trumpand for now, against Republicans in Congress. The survey put Trumps approval rating among college-educated white women at just 31 percent, down substantially from the 44 percent of the vote he won among them in November. On the congressional ballot, fully 59 percent of them say they prefer a Democratic Congress, while just 35 percent want Republicans to maintain control. Since 1992, Democratic congressional candidates have never carried more than 52 percent of the vote among these white-collar white women.

If Democrats can sustain it, the shift among white women without a college education may be even more significant. These working-class white womensometimes called waitress momswere key to Trumps victory, particularly in the Rustbelt states that tipped the election. Thoroughly rejecting the first female nominee, they gave Trump a crushing 61 percent of their votes. Likewise, they gave congressional Republicans 63 percent of their votes, and Democrats just 35 percent, last years exit polls found.

Those results continued a long-term rightward trend among these voters. Democrats captured less than 40 percent of the vote among blue-collar white women in each of the 2010, 2012, and 2014 congressional elections, according to exit polls. Since 1996, Democrats have reached even 45 percent among them just once, during the 2006 landslide that swept them to control of the House and the Senate.

In the ABC/Washington Post survey, though, Trumps approval rating among non-college-educated white women has fallen to 42 percenta vertiginous 19-point decline relative to his 2016 vote. (Thats a bigger decline than among any of the other three quadrants of college- and non-college-educated white men and women.) The survey also found these women now prefer Democrats for Congress by a slim 45 percent to 43 percent margin. Thats a 20-point decline for Republicans relative to their actual vote just since last fall.

These ordinarily Republican-leaning women have been deeply split about the GOP health plans. Generally they are less resistant to the proposals than more affluent and better-educated white womenbut much less enthusiastic about them than their underlying partisan lean would predict.

For instance, in recent pollingconducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the American Medical Association, and across six key states in the debateopposition to the Senate bill was greatest among what the pollsters described as upper-class white women. But lower-income, working-class, and middle-class white women were also more than twice as likely to describe the Republican legislation as a bad idea than a good idea. Likewise, in the ABC/Washington Post poll, college-educated white women were especially likely to say they preferred the Affordable Care Act over the GOP alternatives, but a plurality of non-college-educated white women agreed with them.

Non-college-educated white women have a very strong feeling about the importance of protecting health care, so the cuts themselves are painful to them, said veteran Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. The health-care bill goes against all the populism that [Trump] articulated in the campaign.

If Democrats can maintain the substantial gains they register among those blue-collar white women in this and other recent surveysand even the modest improvement they tally among working-class white menthe 2018 congressional battlefield will be much wider than the well-educated suburban districts where Trump has displayed the most conspicuous weakness.

Read the original:
Where Republicans Are Losing Ground - The Atlantic

Assembly Republicans will accept Gov. Scott Walker's offer to use $200 million slated for tax cuts for road projects instead, they told the governor in a letter Thursday.

The governor made the offer Wednesday during a meeting with Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, in an effort to break an impasse between the two houses primarily over how to fund roads projects.

"The proposal that you outlined yesterday is a positive step forward in our desire to find a long-term solution and we believe the leadership that you have displayed has bridged the gap between our two houses," Assembly Republicans wrote.

Assembly Republicans have been fiercely against Walker's and Senate Republicans' proposals to borrow millions in the 2017-19 state budget without increasing revenue sources to pay for the projects. Senate Republicans put forward their own budget proposal this week that included $712 million in new bonding for roads.

Thursday's letter indicated Walker offered not to add any new borrowing for roads with finding a "sustainable way" to pay for the state's debt.

The Assembly's acceptance could be a breakthrough in the budget stalemate, which has caused a new state spending plan to be delayed by 20 days, but there was no word from Senate Republicans on whether they would agree to Walker's proposal.

Fitzgerald is reviewing the Assembly Republicans' letter and Senate Republicans are scheduled to discuss budget issues at 3:30 p.m., according to Fitzgerald spokeswoman Myranda Tanck.

Meanwhile, Joint Finance Committee co-chairman Rep. John Nygren, R-Marinette, sent a letter to co-chairwoman Sen. Alberta Darling, R-River Hills, asking that the committee resume its work writing the 2017-19 state budget as early as next week in light of Walker's offer.

Read the rest here:
Budget breakthrough? Assembly Republicans accept Scott Walker's offer for roads - Madison.com

Americans for Prosperity, the Koch group that will be most involved in the push, says it has spent nearly $1 million so far on lobbying and advertising efforts, including more than 500 meetings with lawmakers and their staff members on Capitol Hill and ads directed at Republicans on the Senate and House committees responsible for tax policy. By the time debate begins on a tax bill, expected later this year, the group will most likely have spent several million dollars more, its strategists said.

The American Action Network, another conservative policy group, expects to invest more than $20 million in an advertising campaign promoting tax changes, more than it spent pushing for the health care bill.

The American Action Network spent $15 million on health care reform since Jan. 1, said Corry Bliss, the groups executive director. Looking ahead to the tax initiative that were all waiting for, he added, $15 million from our perspective is the starting point.

Underlying this kind of spending on a policy, no less, that was once expected to be a relatively easy lift for Republicans is a rising sense of urgency. Republicans fear they could be looking at a worst-of-two-worlds scenario in which they have a historically unpopular president dogged by persistent legal and ethical questions, at the same time they remain unable to restore a semblance of functionality to Capitol Hill.

Watching efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act fall apart was more than just a setback for conservatives who disliked the law, which expanded the governments role in health care and created an expensive new entitlement program. For some, it was a demoralizing glimpse into a future in which Republicans have all the power in Washington but they are powerless to do anything with it.

Anytime a party is given this kind of opportunity, youre judged by the product you produce, said Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and former aide to Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader.

The inability to produce is especially problematic for the Republican Party, which portrays itself as more capable and efficient when it comes to running an unwieldy federal bureaucracy. Where Republicans have their biggest problem, Mr. Holmes said, is when all of a sudden they look like they dont have their hand on the wheel.

In that sense it is competence and not the accusations of corruption or collusion that have led to various investigations into the Trump campaigns ties to Russia that most worries many Republicans.

A perception of ineptitude could be especially damaging for President Trump, who portrays himself as a master problem-solver and deal maker who promised voters that the country under his leadership would be run so competently, Youre going to be so sick and tired of winning.

Many conservatives brushed aside doubts about Mr. Trumps readiness to be president and his true commitment to conservatism and voted for him because he represented their best shot at pursuing an agenda that would begin rolling back what they saw as an egregious expansion of government under President Barack Obama.

And while conservatives have much to cheer under Mr. Trumps presidency so far a decidedly conservative new Supreme Court justice, a rollback of regulations on business, and plans to withdraw from the Paris climate pact he has yet to fulfill some of his biggest campaign promises.

Planned Parenthood has retained its federal funding, despite Mr. Trumps repeated vows to cut the group off, a promise that has died, for now, with the health care bill. Just this week, Mr. Trump recertified the international agreement with Iran that curtails its nuclear program, despite having repeatedly said it was the worst deal ever and that he would renegotiate it. And construction of the wall he promised along the countrys southern border has not begun.

The governing party has to govern, said John Shadegg, a Republican former congressman from Arizona. And especially when you make the case for eight years that you can do it: Give us the House; we can fix this. Give us the Senate; we can fix this. Give us the White House and we can fix this.

You cannot make a promise for eight years, he continued, and simply say, Eh, when push came to shove, our promises turned out to be wrong or too difficult.

Mr. Trumps supporters have demonstrated a tendency to forgive. But Republican lawmakers may find voters far less sympathetic. And as conservatives digested news on Tuesday of the failed health care effort, their disgust was evident.

We may well be witnessing one of the greatest political whiffs of our time, said Rich Lowry, editor of National Review.

In an editorial on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal described the weeks events as one of the great political failures in recent U.S. history, going as far as endorsing efforts to unseat the disloyal senators. If the Obamacare Republicans now get primary opponents, they have earned them, the paper said.

As the radio host Hugh Hewitt took calls from irate listeners, he predicted political ruin for Republican senators like Dean Heller of Nevada who had opposed the bill. Boy are people mad, he said. They are mad as hell.

But banking on a tax overhaul as a springboard for a dispirited Republican Party may not be a sure thing. The issue does not have the potency and emotion of the Affordable Care Act, which also had an easily demonized antagonist in Mr. Obama. Democrats will be waiting to pounce with criticisms that the Republican plan is a big giveaway to the rich. And the conservative grass roots may find the policy lacking in populist appeal.

Either way, said Levi Russell, director of public affairs for Americans for Prosperity, Republicans need to move in unison on this issue.

Clearly thats what we lacked during the health care debate, he added. Republicans were not unified around a solution.

Read the original here:
Health Care Has GOP Down. Tax Cuts May Be the Cure. - New York Times