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Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

So far, Americans have largely supported using social distancing to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. According to a Washington Post/University of Maryland poll published this week, most Americans agree that its necessary to wear a mask, stay at home when possible, avoid gatherings and keep 6 feet away from others in public. And while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say these measures are important, sizable majorities in both parties still agree that they are necessary. But while Americans are mostly on the same page about current social distancing measures, there are also signs that they increasingly disagree about where the crisis is headed, with Democrats saying the worst is yet to come and Republicans saying the worst is behind us.

According to a CNN poll released this week, nearly three-quarters of Democrats said the worst of the crisis is still ahead of us, while only about a quarter of Republicans said the same. This marked a 15 percentage-point drop among Democrats since CNN last asked the question in April, and a 44-point drop among Republicans. A YouGov/Economist poll also found a similar divide this week; 58 percent of Democrats said the pandemic is going to get worse compared with only 20 percent of Republicans. (The pollster included a third choice, We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic, which just over 20 percent of both Democrats and Republicans chose.) And a daily tracking poll conducted by Navigator Research also found that between mid-April and early May, the share of Americans who thought the worst was yet to come declined sharply. However, that number has been ticking back up again since May 4, which may reflect increased concern that the virus will spread as more states begin to ease restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.

The polls this week also show that Americans are adjusting their expectations about when the need for social distancing is likely to end. According to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, two-thirds of Americans think that it will be at least the end of July before people can safely gather in groups of 10 or more, up from 45 percent who thought so a month ago. This months total includes 80 percent of Democrats and 54 of Republicans. And this weeks YouGov/Economist poll found that a 47 percent plurality including a third of Republicans and almost two-thirds of Democrats believe it will be at least September before it is safe to end social distancing measures.

Concerns about catching the virus have stayed fairly consistent over the month of May so far. According to FiveThirtyEights coronavirus poll tracker, the share of Americans who say they are somewhat or very concerned that they or someone they know will get sick stayed mostly steady at about 68 percent.

And the share of Americans who say theyre concerned about the viruss impact on the economy has also stayed about the same hovering at around 87 percent for the past six weeks.

The share of Americans who approve of Trumps handling of the virus response, however, has declined about 4 points over the past month, though in the shorter term his rating remains essentially unchanged, with 43.3 percent approving of the job hes doing handling the pandemic this week and 43.5 percent approving last week.

Attitudes toward Trumps handling of the crisis are, expectedly, very partisan, with a majority of Republicans approving and a majority of Democrats opposed. Feelings seem to be more mixed about leaders outside the federal government, however according to a new Pew Research poll, state and local officials, on average, continue to enjoy more bipartisan support than Trump. However, Republicans appear to be souring on local and state officials work faster than Democrats are. For instance, since March, the share of Republicans who think their local elected officeholders are doing a good or excellent job has declined by 12 points, while the share of Democrats who say the same has remained unchanged at 66 percent. Likewise, Republican approval of the job state officials were doing declined by 12 percentage points, while Democratic approval dropped by only 5 points. Additionally, Republicans, who were more likely than Democrats to rate public health officials such as those at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention favorably in March were less likely to do so now. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said health officials are doing a good or excellent job, down 16 points since March, while about three-quarters of Democrats felt health officials were doing a good job in both polls.

However, at this point, the majority of Americans are not yet frequenting public places despite growing disagreement on where the coronavirus crisis is headed next. A Morning Consult poll conducted last week asked Americans about whether theyre going to public places and socializing with others, and it didnt find much of a partisan gap in reported behavior. So for now at least, it seems like many Americans are staying put, although that might change in the coming weeks.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.0 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.4 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 51.4 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -8.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 51.4 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7.7 percentage points (48.9 percent to 41.2 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7.9 points (48.5 percent to 40.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 7.8 points (48.6 percent to 40.8 percent).

Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

CORRECTION (May 15, 2020, 10:01 a.m.): A previous version of this article reversed President Trumps job approval numbers: 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job hes doing and 52.0 percent disapprove, not the other way around.

Excerpt from:
Democrats Say The Worst Of The Coronavirus Is Yet To Come. Republicans Say The Worst Is Over. - FiveThirtyEight

Republicans appeared poised to win two congressional seats one in Wisconsin and one in California in special election races that are being watched closely as preludes to the general election in November as many states will move to mail-in voting amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In Wisconsin, the Republican Tom Tiffany notched an easy victory, in a reliably red district. In California, early results indicated the Republican Mike Garcia is on track to retake a seat that Democrats had flipped in 2018. Both seats will be up for election again in November.

The California vote was based almost entirely on mailed-in ballots, and the full results likely wont be clear for days. Officials will accept ballots postmarked by election day, even if they arrive up to three days later.

Whoever wins the California special election would fill the seat of the former US representative Katie Hill, who resigned amid scandal in late 2019. The circumstances of Hills resignation she quit amid allegations that she had an affair with a staffer, and after private photos of her had been published online without her consent had brought national attention to the race. Donald Trump, who endorsed Garcia and alleged that the election was rigged because of the opening of a new voting center in the district, also ensured that the race was closely watched, especially by Democrats who believed it would be a referendum on the president.

On Wednesday morning, Garcia, a former navy fighter pilot, was ahead of the Democratic California state legislator Christy Smith by 55.9% to 44.1%, preliminary results from the California secretary of states office said.

It is looking extremely good, Garcia said on a conference call. I wont give a victory speech tonight. Well save that for hopefully tomorrow night as the data comes in.

Smith earned the endorsements of Barack Obama and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Hills unpopularity in the district, post-scandal, had been a hurdle for her campaign. Prior to the election, the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race from lean Democratic to a tossup as the pandemic shut down traditional campaigning through door-knocking and town halls.

Regardless of the outcome, Democrats are hopeful about Smiths chances in the November election. The electorate will be very different then, said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strategist based in Los Angeles. And I still think Smith will have a strong chance.

It is wise to avoid projecting too much about the November elections based on this race, said Paul Mitchell, with the campaign research firm Political Data Inc. To do so would be like predicting the championship based on the results of two-on-two basketball game before the finals, Mitchell said.

Traditionally, older, white, and Republican voters are overrepresented in special elections, Mitchell said. Younger and minority voters, who lean Democratic, are more likely to vote in larger numbers in November.

In Wisconsin, Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by Trump, easily won a special congressional election in a heavily conservative, rural Wisconsin district. But Democrats are likely to watch his margin of victory and consider it evidence of that partys gains if Tiffanys opponent Tricia Zunker performs better than the 20-point defeat the Democrats faced in district in 2018. Preliminary results show Tiffany leading by 14 points.

For Trump to win re-election, red areas have to get redder to balance out blue areas getting bluer, said the Wisconsin Democratic party spokeswoman, Courtney Beyer.

But Tiffany dismissed the argument. Any time you lose by 14 points, I dont think thats a moral victory, he said. This is a decisive victory here.

Tiffany will replace the former reality TV star Sean Duffy, a Republican who retired in September. The district has been vacant since Duffys retirement.

Zunker, the president of the Wausau school board, was trying to become the first Native American from Wisconsin elected to Congress. She pulled in big-name endorsements including Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, but the numbers were against her. The district has been under Republican control since 2011 and was redistricted to more heavily favor Republicans.

Read more here:
Republicans appear on track to win two congressional seats - The Guardian

WASHINGTON Top Republicans are evoking concerns about the rising national debt to pump the brakes on coronavirus relief, and Democrats are crying foul.

House Democrats are eyeing a vote as early as Friday on a $3 trillion package that includes aid to state and local governments, assistance for essential workers, an extension of unemployment benefits beyond July and another round of direct payments for families.

"We're taking a look at what we've already done we've added about $3 trillion to the national debt and assessing the effectiveness of that before deciding to go forward," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters Tuesday. "If we reach a decision along with the administration to move to another phase, that'll be the time to interact with the Democrats."

He said the House bill "is not something designed to deal with reality but designed to deal with aspirations this is not a time for aspirational legislation."

Full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak

The budget deficit is projected to rise to a record $3.7 trillion in fiscal year 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office, although the U.S. continues to borrow at record low interest rates.

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Democrats say Republicans are using the issue now as a pretext to reject additional relief, arguing that they weren't concerned about the debt when they passed the $1.9 trillion tax law or other coronavirus aid measures that helped businesses.

"Well, it's interesting to see what they're saying, becoming now, renewing their fiscal hawk positions that they can barely remember. I have confidence in going big with what we do," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Monday on MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes."

"When I saw them give a $2 trillion addition to the national debt in order to give 83 percent of the benefits to the top 1 percent, that was so irresponsible in terms of it did nothing for the economy except heap mountains of debt on our children," she said.

The budget deficit fell sharply during Barack Obama's presidency amid demands from congressional Republicans. But it rose by hundreds of billions of dollars after the GOP took control in 2017 and passed tax cuts and struck deals to increase spending.

The Democrats' new legislation, which is backed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., includes nearly $1 trillion in aid to state and local governments to cover expenses related to the coronavirus and to pay health care workers and teachers. McConnell and other Republicans have used the growing debt to pour cold water on the push.

On the Senate floor Wednesday, Rick Scott, R-Fla., sounded the alarm about the fiscal situation as he railed against "bailing out" states facing budget woes during the pandemic.

"Our national debt and deficits already at unsustainable levels have skyrocketed as Congress has spent almost $3 trillion to address this crisis," Scott said. "At some point, we need to start thinking about the impact this spending will have on our country's financial future and the future of our children and grandchildren."

The battle is less partisan among governors.

"As Congress reconvenes, delivering urgent state fiscal relief must be a top priority. Each day that Congress fails to act, states are being forced to make cuts that will devastate the essential services the American people rely on and destroy the economic recovery before it even gets off the ground," Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a joint statement Wednesday. "This is not a red state or blue state crisis. This is a red white and blue pandemic. The coronavirus is apolitical."

Republicans are digging in their heels less than six months before an election that will shape the U.S. recovery from the coronavirus, foreshadowing political roadblocks that the apparent Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, would have to deal with if he is elected president. The outcome will affect whether the country pursues fiscal restraint or major stimulus efforts to recover from the coronavirus calamity.

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A task force announced Wednesday by Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., includes some figures who have downplayed the deficit in pursuit of national goals: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Stephanie Kelton, an economics and public policy professor at Stony Brook University in New York. The task force features progressives and moderates who will recommend policy to the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

Ocasio-Cortez said Democrats should ignore GOP debt warnings.

"It's absolutely a bad-faith argument," she said in an interview. "They were not concerned about the deficit when they wanted half a trillion dollars that would be leveraged into $4 trillion for Wall Street and their donor buddies. And honestly, you know what? If they are that concerned about the deficit, I'm happy to meet them halfway and roll back the $2 trillion tax cut that they passed just two years ago.

"Aside from that, they don't get to just start whining about the deficit the moment we actually get on the cusp of helping working people," she said.

Sahil Kapur is a national political reporter for NBC News.

Read more:
Democrats accuse Republicans of 'bad faith' as they invoke national debt to pause pandemic aid - NBCNews.com

WASHINGTON The congressional Democrats' latest proposal for rescuing the nation from the coronavirus economic crash looks like a series of dreams come true for New York State and the Buffalo area.

The state would get $34.4 billion over two years, and more than $1 billion would flow into Buffalo's coffers. Congress would send $517 million to Erie County, and property owners across the state would get back the cherished SALT deduction that Congress trimmed three years ago.

"This is exactly what a disaster relief bill should look like," Rep. Brian Higgins, a Buffalo Democrat, said of the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, or Heroes Act.

But to Republicans, the Democrats' $3 trillion proposal is a disaster in itself.

"Obviously, it's a partisan exercise," said Rep. Tom Reed, a Corning Republican who criticized the measure for loosening the reins on the cannabis industry, releasing federal prisoners and aiding undocumented immigrants.

In other words, then, the Heroes Act is just the opening volley in what's likely to be a longer and more difficult tussle than Congress endured in passing its first four pieces of legislation aimed at responding to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Heroes Act would refill local government accounts that have been running low because sales tax revenues have disappeared amid the Covid-19 shutdown. In the Buffalo area alone, municipalities would get $2.2 billion over two years.

"This proposal would absolutely eliminate the city's fiscal problems," said Buffalo Mayor Byron W. Brown. "I think that this proposal is very forward-thinking in that municipalities won't just need federal aid for one year, but they will need it for multiple years."

Erie County Executive Mark C. Poloncarz was equally pleased.

The bill "provides the certainty we need so that we could continue providing the services as normal for a county government without having to do drastic layoffs," Poloncarz said.

The measure would also give $171.2 million to the City of Niagara Falls and $117.7 million to the Niagara County government. The largest towns in the region would each receive tens of millions of dollars, and even the smallest municipalities would get something.

Moreover, the bill would likely limit cuts in state funding to municipalities and school districts. Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday that the state now faces a $61 billion funding gap. The Heroes Act would cover $22.3 billion of this year's shortfall and give the state $12.1 billion in 2021.

Cuomo was particularly pleased with the bill's proposed return of the federal deduction for state and local taxes. Capped at $10,000 annually in the Republican Congress' 2017 tax overhaul, that deduction would go uncapped for the next two years a move that would help high-tax states such as New York to retain residents.

"It's the single best piece of action for the State of New York," Cuomo said.

The trouble with the Heroes Act, though, is that its an entirely Democratic bill and any successful measure will have to pass muster with the Republican-led Senate and the Republican president.

And while President Trump remained silent on the measure, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had plenty to say.

"Even the media is describing it as a partisan wish list with no chance of becoming law," McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said in a statement. This is exactly the wrong approach."

Rather than starting work on a fourth major coronavirus funding bill, McConnell said he is putting together a bill aimed at protecting businesses from lawsuits if they reopen amid the Covid-19 crisis.

Meantime, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy took issue with provisions of the Heroes Act guaranteeing the right to vote by mail this fall, rescuing troubled pension funds and restoring the SALT deduction.

The problems with this 1815-page, multi-trillion dollar messaging bill are plain to see," said McCarthy, a California Republican. "Its central demands changing election laws, bailing out mismanaged pensions, and temporarily suspending the cap on SALT tax deductions for millionaires and billionaires were drafted behind closed doors, predate the crisis, and are not targeted to coronavirus."

Despite that partisan divide, Democrats and Republicans agreed there are areas where the two parties may eventually come to an agreement.

Reed has been working with Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, and Sen. Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, on a measure that would provide $500 billion to states and localities half of what the Heroes Act would deliver.

"A trillion dollars is not reasonable," Reed said.

There's also bipartisan interest in increasing funding for the National Institutes of Health. The Heroes Act would boost NIH funding by $4.75 billion just shy of the $5 billion that Higgins has been pushing for research into finding a vaccine or treatment for Covid-19.

"We have to deal with the problem at hand," Higgins said.

Congress may do that at a leisurely pace, though, partly because the Trump administration has said there's no need to pass another relief bill immediately.

"We just want to make sure that before we jump back in and spend another few trillion of taxpayers money that we do it carefully," Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin said on Fox News this week.

But Congress is already facing pressure from the nation's governors. Cuomo, the Democratic vice chair of the National Governors Association, and Gov. Larry Hogan, the group's Republican vice chair, delivered a joint statement Wednesday calling for fast action.

"With widespread bipartisan agreement on the need for this assistance, we cannot afford a partisan process that turns this urgent relief into another political football," they said.

Excerpt from:
Localities win in Democratic bill that Republicans dismiss out of hand - Buffalo News

According to a report in the New York Times, Republican officeholders in competitive districts fear Donald Trump's unpopularity particularly in light of his coronavirus failures and the subsequent collapse of the economy willswamp their chances of holding onto their seats in November.

As GOP lawmaker put it: "I'm holding on."

"It is a tricky task for lawmakers like [Rep. Fred] Upton (R-MI) in centrist districts throughout the country, who understand that their re-election prospects and any hope their party might have of taking back the House of Representatives could rise or fall based on how they address the pandemic. Already considered a politically endangered species before the novel coronavirus began ravaging the United States, these moderates are now working to counter the risk that their electoral fates could become tied to Mr. Trump's response at a time when the independent voters whose support they need areincreasingly unhappywith his performance," the report notes before adding, "The president's combative news conferences, which his own political advisers have counseled him to curtail, have made the challenge all the steeper."

"In an attempt to ensure their contests become referendums on their own responses to the virus, rather than the president's, vulnerable House Republicans are instead brandishing their own independent streaks, playing up their work with Democrats, doubling down on constituent service and hosting town-hall-style events avoiding mention of Mr. Trump whenever possible," the report continues with Rep John Katko (R-NY) admitting, "It does make it difficult at times."

According to former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) who battled with Trump and ended up losing his seat in the 2018 "blue wave" election it is not an easy task.

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"The president continues to be reckless in the context of the Covid-19 crisis," Curbelo explained. "You could see a similar dynamic where a lot of Republicans in competitive districts will just break with him in an effort to protect their own candidacies."

"Many of his former colleagues in competitive districts had hoped the severity of the crisis would give them a platform to highlight their own responses, Mr. Curbelo said. But as Mr. Trump's nightly briefings 'became more about the president and his personality' than about the disease, he added, 'Republicans have perceived a peril in that development, and certainly some of the recent polling validates that,'" the report continues.

"In some ways, the dilemma these centrist Republicans are facing is the same one they have had to navigate since Mr. Trump was elected, as they have repeatedly been called upon to answer for his more provocative statements and actions. But the pandemic has sharply raised the stakes as their constituents bear the brunt of its dire consequences," the Times reports. "At home in their districts, lawmakers have largely been able to avoid direct questions about the president's handling of the crisis, instead fielding anonslaught of requests from constituentsand reporters for basic information about when relief will reach them."

One Republican voter who voted for Trump in 2016 and will likely support him in 2020, said he understands the problems faced by GOP lawmakers who are trying to avoid the president.

"It's a tightrope," explained Gary Dixon, a retired salesman who supports Rep. John Katko (R-NY). "You've got to be on that wire where you're trying to stay in the middle, but I don't think his middle position will alienate the true Republicans."

You canread more here.

Read more from the original source:
Republicans in tight races are fleeing Trump in fear of a November election disaster: report - Salon