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Seven modern midterm contests have combined both factors: unified control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and presidential approval below 50 percent. And they paint an even more ominous picture for today's Republican majority in Congress.

In those seven midterms, the president's party lost an average of 41 House seats and 6.4 Senate seats. In four cases, control of the House flipped; in three of them, control of the Senate flipped, too.

Next November, a gain of 30 seats would give Democrats control of the House. A gain of three seats would give them control of the Senate.

President Donald Trump's Gallup approval rating now stands at 37 percent.

Using traditional prediction formulas, notes Congressional elections scholar Gary Jacobson, "no way the Republicans hold onto the House." Even if Democrats didn't win the Senate, that would roadblock Trump's legislative agenda.

But the changing political landscape has diminished the value of some old guideposts. That provides Republicans some comfort 200 days into the Trump presidency.

First, partisan voting patterns have grown more consistent as Democrats and Republicans have grown increasingly polarized in recent decades. That diminishes ability of Democrats to attract dissident Republican voters.

Second, the combination of political gerrymandering with the residential concentration of Democrats in large metropolitan areas gives Republicans the ability to win a share of House seats far outpacing their share of the overall population. So the current Democratic lead in national "generic ballot" polls a robust 9 percentage points in the current realclearpolitics.com average exaggerates the potential for Democratic gains.

Third, today's Democratic Party has grown increasingly reliant on younger voters. They traditionally turn out for midterm elections at lower rates than their elders.

In the Senate, moreover, Republicans hold a huge advantage benefit in the profile of seats up for election next November. Of 34 senators on the ballot, only nine are Republicans; of the seven considered most vulnerable, only two are Republicans.

As a result, says fivethirtyeight.com analyst David Wasserman, "the Congressional map has a record-setting bias against Democrats."

Congressional Republicans need all the help they can get. Not only is Trump historically unpopular for a president in his first year, but the all-Republican government has failed to deliver on any of its major promises to voters.

The seven-year GOP crusade repeal and replace Obamacare collapsed before the president and Congress left town for summer vacation. When they return in September, party leaders face the urgent task of convincing balky lawmakers to protect America's credit-worthiness by raising the federal debt ceiling.

The White House and Congressional Republicans vow to deliver by year-end on their pledge to cut rates and overhaul the nation's tax system. If they fail, they may not have the chance to try again soon.

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Despite Trump's low ratings, midterm election map still favors Republicans -- for now - CNBC

Robert Mueller speaks before the US Senate Judiciary Committee in 2013. (Reuters / Larry Downing)

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Backed into a corner by Robert Mueller, the indefatigable special counsel whos looking into Russiagate, the Trump familys finances, and Trumps possible efforts to obstruct justice, the president is lashing out. In the past few weeks, especially since mid-July, Trump, along with his lawyers and key conservative allies, launched a barrage of attacks aimed at discrediting Mueller, possibly as a prelude to having him fired.

But at the same time, while Mueller maintains complete radio silence, others have spoken out strongly in his defenseincluding, as it turns out, a growing number of Republicans.

In Congress, remarkably, several Republican senators have joined with their Democratic colleagues to propose legislation restricting Trumps ability to oust Mueller. One pair is made up of Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Chris Coons (D-DE), and another is from Lindsey Graham (R-DC) and Cory Booker (D-NJ). Both pieces of legislation would do essentially the same thing: Were Trump to ask the Justice Department to fire Mueller, that decision would have to be reviewed by a three-judge panel. Appearing on Fox News Sunday on August 6, Tillis was asked if his proposed bill was aimed squarely at Trump. Theres no question that it is, said Tillis. I dont believe the investigation is a witch hunt. Graham, for his part, said that it could be the beginning of the end for Trumps presidency were he to fire Mueller.

If he fires Robert Mueller, theres some significant chance that eventually Mueller will be the lead witness in his impeachment hearing. Rich Lowry, National Review

Rich Lowry, the conservative editor of National Review, appearing on the same Fox News Sunday broadcast, warned the president in the strongest possible terms that purging Mueller would not be a good idea. President Trump needs to realize, if he fires Robert Mueller, theres some significant chance that eventually Mueller will be the lead witness in his impeachment hearing, said Lowry. Those, of course, would be impeachment proceedings carried out by a Republican-led House of Representatives.

In another remarkable move, Senate Republicans united to prevent Trump from firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions and installing a replacement as a recess appointment that wouldnt require confirmation by the Senate. They did so by setting up a procedure under which the Senate would not formally recess during the August break.

Senator Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, added for good measure that there was no way that the Senate would consider confirming a new AG if Sessions were fired. Thats important, because Trump cannot fire Mueller himself but would have to ask the Justice Department to do it. Sessions has recused himself from Russiagate, thanks to his still unexplained meetings with Russias ambassador to the United States, so he cant do the firing, and Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein has pretty much said he wont do it.

Perhaps Republicans have realized that distancing themselves from Trump is their best hope of avoiding an electoral catastrophe in 2018.

It isnt certain, yet, how extensive the opposition is among the GOP in Congress and among Republicans at large to Trumps jihad against Mueller, Sessions, the FBI, and the Justice Department. But its clear that its there and that its growing. Why, exactly? Perhaps its simply that many Republicans, especially in the Senate, resent Trumps incessant attacks on Sessions, an ultraconservative former colleague. Perhaps its because the Republicans resisting Trump actually believe in that American thing called the rule of law. And perhapsbest possibility of allits because Republicans have realized that distancing themselves from Trump is their best hope of avoiding an electoral catastrophe in 2018, and that their chances of being reelected might improve if theyre not seen as having colluded with an out-of-control president hellbent on obstructing justice.

Meanwhile, perhaps having thoughts along similar lines, Trump is engaged in a full-scale effort to discredit and smear Mueller. As far back as late June, in fact, Trump began his campaign to paint him as hopelessly partisan and unfair. I can say that the people who have been hired [by Mueller] are all Hillary Clinton supporters, Trump said on Fox and Friends. He added, He [Mueller] is very good friends with [fired FBI Director] Comey, which is bothersome. As for dealing with Mueller, presumably by having him fired, Trump said, Were going to have to see.

On July 20, The New York Times headlined its story on the Trump-led counteroffensive: Trump Aides, Seeking Leverage, Investigate Muellers Investigators. The paper reported that Trumps teamwhich is led by Ty Cobb, a Washington superlawyeris scouring the professional and political backgrounds of investigators hired by Robert S. Mueller III, looking for conflicts of interest. Part of what theyre doing, said the Times, is scrutinizing donations to Democratic candidates and looking at investigators past clients. The goal, quite clearly, is to tar Mueller as running a team in thrall to the Democrats.

The very next day, Kellyanne Conway, the presidents spinmistress, began slamming Mueller for his teams alleged Democratic leanings. On July 21, appearing on Fox and Friends, Conway said that members of Muellers team clearly wanted the other person [i.e., Hillary Clinton] to win, and she questioned the political motivations of Muellers lawyers. Asked on CNN about getting to the truth behind the Russia allegations, Conway scoffed: Isnt Mr. Mueller and his band of Democratic donors doing that? Conway kept up the barrage, saying on the August 6 edition of ABCs This Week that the White House will cooperate with Bob Mueller and his investigation, even thoughmany of them are Democratic donors.

Needless to say, while some of Muellers team members did indeed make relatively small contributions to Democratic candidates, that doesnt amount to evidence of bias, nor does it discredit the work theyre doing. According to ThinkProgress, three of Muellers attorneys made donations to Democrats totaling just $56,000 over the past three decades, and nearly all of that was from just one of the investigating attorneys, while according to Business Insider, as many as seven of the 16 attorneys may have given money here and there to Democratsthough, as even Fox News reports, some of those same lawyers also donated cash to Republicans, too, while a handful of others gave about $200 to one or two Democrats.

Mueller himself, described in nearly every profile as the straightest of straight arrows, himself leans Republican, and he was appointed to the Justice Department in 1989 by George H.W. Bush and to his 10-year term as FBI director in 2001 by George W. Bush. And, as three lawyers writing for the Los Angeles Times pointed out, according to the Justice Departments own stringent rules, campaign donations do not create a conflict of interest.

A string of lawyers with strong credentials in the field of ethics each told Politico last month that Trumps critique of Mueller on grounds of political bias were utterly groundless. The arguments from the Trump camp are either cynical or further evidence for the fact that the president apparently has no ability to conceive of the difference between the professional and the personal, said Samuel Buell, a former federal prosecutor and professor of law at Duke University. To anyone who actually knows conflicts lawand Painter and I have between us spent over half a century on the subjectthe Trump teams allegations are garbage, said Norm Eisen, President Obamas ethics czar, referring to Richard Painter, the chief White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush.

Nonetheless, picking up on Kellyanne Conways lead, likely at the instigation of Trumps own legal team, the pro-Trump media echo chamber unleashed a barrage of attacks painting Muellers team as partisan. Now, this guy Mueller has staffed up with many anti-Trump, anti-Republicans. Hes got a bunch of Obama lawyers, a bunch of Hillary lawyers whove also been fundraisers, bundlers, big time donors, proclaimed Rush Limbaugh. And Breitbart News, formerly headed by Steve Bannon, Trumps senior adviser, highlighted Paul Ryan in expos fashion for his defense of Mueller against trumped-up charges of bias. Ryan, who said that Mueller is anything but [a] biased partisan, precipitated howls of outrage from Breitbarts loyal followers. Typical of the comments: Ryan is doing the work of his Globalist masters just like Mueller.

An even more scurrilous attack on Mueller came from Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, and Alan Dershowitz. Both raised the fact that the grand jury reportedly empaneled last month in Washington, DC, would be inherently biased against the president because Washington is a Democratic Party stronghold. Dershowitz went so far as to warn, in an interview with WABC, that the ethnic and racial composition of the nations capital, which is heavily African-American, would tilt likely jurors against Trump. And Gingrich chimed in, saying guess how biased the grand jury will be.

The president unleashed a Twitter barrage on July 22 trying to paint Mueller, the Justice Department, and his own attorney general as somehow doing the Democrats dirty work. Among the highlights of Trumps tweetstorm: He wondered angrily why the Special Council [sic] wasnt investigating Hillary Clintons e-mails (July 22), said Attorney General Sessions has taken a VERY weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes (July 25), accused the acting FBI chief of getting $700,000 from Clinton for his wifes political campaign (July 25), and asked why didnt Sessions replace Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe for alleged Clinton ties (July 26).

Trump has shown no sign that hes ready to recognize the reality that he cant block Mueller without doing fatal damage to his own political future. During his bizarre, rambling political rally in West Virginia last week, Trump turned repeatedly to the Russiagate affair, calling it the totally made-up Russia story. This despite having complete access to all of the top-secret information the US intelligence community has about Russias interference in the 2016 election.

Have you seen any Russians in West Virginia or Ohio or Pennsylvania? Trump asked the raucous audience. Are there any Russians here tonight? Any Russians?

That sort of bombast may win him cheers in Huntington, West Virginia. But it wont gain him support among his own party in Capitol Hill. And, needless to add, it wont stop Robert Muellers intrepid sleuths from expanding their inquest.

Originally posted here:
Why Trump's Attacks on Mueller Are Getting Some Surprising PushbackFrom Republicans - The Nation.

Republicans kicked off a monthlong respite from the drama surrounding national politics in Washington D.C. this week, only to return home to more chaos and anger from local constituents who elected them to office.

Just as Democrats faced the newly founded Tea Party protesters during the 2009 summer recess, GOP lawmakers were swarmed with major demonstrations immediately after heading back to their hometowns, mostly due to their agenda on health care.

Related: The GOP attempts to repeal Obamacare yet again after failing 70 times

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Voters flocked to the first town halls scheduled for Republican representatives since the majority left Washington Friday afternoon, demanding an end to the partys efforts torepealformer President Barack Obamas landmark health care initiative, the Affordable Care Act.

Things got ugly very quick.

One protestor attending a town hall in California with Representative Doug LaMalfawho voted in favor of replacing Obamacare with the GOPs widely opposed American Health Care Actwished for his death while holding a sign that read Lackey for the Rich!

May you die in pain!He shouted at the Republican congressman.

Others dressed as The Wizard of Ozs infamous Wicked Witch of the West to protest LaMalfas support for legislation that even President Donald Trump reportedly described as meanduring a Republican luncheon at the White House.

SenatorCory Gardneralso took a beating from his local voters in Colorado, one of whomdemanded to know why on Earththe conservative voted consistently to repeal Obamacare.

Seven years ago, when I ran for Congress, I said that I would vote to repeal and replace Obamacare, and Im going to continue to live up to the promise I made,Gardner said. The crowd responded with shouting and boos, sharply rejecting his suggestion that his party will continue to attempt to dismantle the health care bill.

In most photos from local reporters and Twitter users circulating social media during Republican town halls nationwide, protesters can be seen holding signs that read in bold letters RESIGN, One Term Onlyand other scathing messages calling forthe removal of elected officials currently holding office.

Meanwhile, videos from inside the events show locals appearing dumbfounded and frustrated by Republicans responses as to their stalled agenda six months into holding power in both houses, and their policieson issues such ashealth care and the environment.

I appreciate the enormous challenges and difficulties you face as a member of Congress,one man tells LaMalfa in a video from his town hall Monday night. However, along with many Americans and backed by scientific consensus, I am convinced that rapid climate change caused primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels is the most significant issue facing this country.

I do not buy into the idea that man-made activity, such as fossil fuels, affects climate change,the congressman responded, before being drowned out by audience members banging their heads in frustration and berating him out with boos.

Even for conservative lawmakers Republican voters, the wish to carry on from repealing Obamacare could be well warranted: Newsweek found at least 70 attempts by the GOP to repeal, diminish or otherwise reduce the legislation since it came into law in 2010.

Several Republicans who expressed uncertainty about the upcoming monthlong trip back home have yet to schedule town halls. That isnt to say the entire party is hiding behind closed doors: Georgia representativeBuddy Carterhas scheduled at least nine town hall meetings during his vacation.

Just five days into what was supposed to be the longest annual holiday for lawmakers nationwide has instead turned into hell for some. And it may only just be beginning.

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Furious Voters Wish Death and Unemployment on Republicans in Nationwide Recess Demonstrations - Newsweek

The Republican floundering in D.C. is the all-too-public machinations of a party still trying to organize and develop policy while holding the reins of power. Our president and, by default, leader of the party was elected without a developed set of policy details, leaving the GOP without a detailed bicameral governing agenda, a unified message or even a common set of priorities. The resulting chaos is painful to watch.

Why does a party that won and won decisively need to organize? Let us remember, as recently as last October, after the year-long GOP presidential primary when an outsider won, it seemed obvious that the GOP needed a reset.

Unfortunately, the need to unify Republicans remains; winning only exasperated the problem. We are a party held together by redistricting, the overreach and united opposition to the Obama administration, and a handful of policy hangovers from our time in the minority. Republicans are torn between the pragmatism of Reagan and the conservatism of Reagan both sides clinging to the realities and myths of the last president that united the GOP.

The modern GOP is scarred by primaries, litmus tests and outside groups that discourage deal making, where chairmen, senior statesmen and leaders lose elections over the mere suggestion of cutting a deal. Members are shamed if they direct federal funds to their congressional districts, yet lose in primaries for not doing enough for their constituents. We have either too many conservatives or not enough depending on where you fall on the spectrum.

The current coalition of congressional Republicans is a ragtag group, elected as individuals on a variety of platforms and priorities. The conservative revolution that saw the Republican Study Committee grow from 20 members to over 170 in a decade, fell short of 218; it then split itself in two with the birth of the Freedom Caucus.

Meanwhile, the Tuesday Group that almost disappeared reemerged as a counterpoint to the far right. Sprinkle in a handful of old bulls with decades of pragmatic seniority and parliamentary know-how and a couple of libertarians and you have the coalition that makes up the Republicans in Congress.

At the root of the post-Reagan conservative movement that grew during the late 90s and blossomed in the 2010 election, is a core belief that bad process makes bad policy. It is the anger at the process that is the root of the earmark ban, the original opposition to ObamaCare, and ultimately the Trump victory.

The process is the swamp. So stop bad process; dont repeat it. Acting as if Democrats do not exist and insisting on the use of reconciliation to take on healthcare and tax reform only highlight the divides in the GOP. Of all groups, the GOP should know a partisan process will not make good law, permanent law, or conservative law; it is the very process we ran against for the last several cycles.

Moving Republicans from a coalition in the majority to a governing majority will take time, something we may not have. However, a good first step would be to start moving regular bills in regular order. If the public has to watch our infighting, expand the debate and trust the legislative process. The tyranny of the minority needs to be tested, and should be tested on the House and Senate floor, not in primaries.

Sure, there will be losers, but it might also bring structure and unity to a majority in need of both.

Brian Wild is the policy director with Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, a law firm based in Washington, D.C. He was senior advisor to the Speaker of the House John BoehnerJohn BoehnerRepublican donor sues GOP for fraud over ObamaCare repeal failure Boehner on Trump tweets: He gets 'into a pissing match with a skunk' every day Boehner predicts GOP will 'never' repeal, replace ObamaCare MORE and served as deputy assistant for legislative affairs to Vice President Dick Cheney.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.

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How Republicans can bring order out of the GOP's chaos - The Hill (blog)

When West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice stood next to President Trump during a campaign rally in Huntington, W.Va., on Thursday to announce that he was switching parties and becoming a Republican, it was a historic moment for the GOP.

Justice's decision gives Republicans control of 34 governorships tying a record set nearly a century ago. Democrats hold just 15 governorships. (Alaska's governor is an independent). Republicans now hold so-called trifectas control of a governor's mansion and both chambers of a state legislature in 26 states (including Nebraska's non-partisan unicameral legislature which is effectively controlled by Republicans). Democrats have just six such trifectas. That's in addition to Republicans' complete control of the federal government.

And unlike their D.C. cousins, Republicans in statehouses across the country can point to conservative policy accomplishments this year, such as adding new restrictions on abortion, expanding gun rights, weakening private and public sector labor unions and expanding school voucher programs.

But a constellation of forces means that this level of Republican dominance in the states is brittle and in danger of shattering.

Large playing field, unpopular president

Perhaps the biggest reason Republicans are vulnerable is because of the extent of their past successes at the state level. Republicans are defending 27 of the 38 governors' seats that are up election between now and November 2018. And 14 of those 27 seats will be vacant including large, important states such as Florida, Michigan and Ohio mostly due to term limits.

While it's too early to tell how many races will be truly competitive, it's likely Republicans will face plenty of headwinds. State-level elections have become increasingly nationalized over the past two decades and the president's popularity can have a major impact on voter enthusiasm and turnout especially a challenge with a president as polarizing and unpopular as President Trump currently is.

Infighting and overreach

Years in power have also created problems for state-level Republicans. In Kansas, an overly ambitious plan to cut taxes orchestrated by Gov. Sam Brownback (who's been nominated to a State Department post in the Trump administration) starved the state of funds for its schools and other services. Kansas Republicans wound up bitterly divided over the issue and earlier this year, a moderate faction sided with Democrats to override Brownback's veto and rescind the tax cuts.

Similarly, a series of tax cuts in oil-dependent Oklahoma left the state poorly prepared for a downturn in energy prices. Republican lawmakers were forced to swallow their opposition and vote for tax hikes in order to keep the state solvent.

With Democrats all but vanquished in several Republican-dominated states, intra-Republican disputes have taken center stage. In Texas, Republicans are divided between a business-friendly faction that prioritizes low taxes and less regulation and social conservatives eager to pass the most conservative legislation possible, such as a bill limiting transgender access to bathrooms. Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Rick Scott was running campaign-style ads against fellow Republicans in the legislature over a dispute about economic development funds.

A combination of voters unhappy with the governing party's track record and internal party rifts that will play out in primary elections, sometimes leading to extreme or unqualified candidates, could weigh down Republican candidates up and down the ballot over the next year.

The maps and the courts

After the Republican wave election in 2010, victorious GOP state lawmakers took advantage of that year's decennial redistricting to further entrench their power, especially in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps in North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Georgia and Alabama are already in federal court because of concerns about racial gerrymandering and North Carolina has already been ordered to redraw some of its districts.

But an even greater existential threat to Republican dominance at the state level comes from one of the most important Supreme Court cases of this fall's docket. Arguments in Gill vs. Whitford could determine whether Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin were allowed to take partisanship into account when drawing legislative boundaries. The Republican maps in Wisconsin were so formidably drawn that the GOP won 60 of 99 seats in the Wisconsin House even as Democrats drew more votes statewide in 2012 and 2014.

While both parties use partisan gerrymandering to their advantage, Republicans' dominance at the state level means the GOP has far more on the line from a Supreme Court decision.

Can Democrats capitalize?

The flip side of Republicans' dominance is the weakness of state-level Democrats. Going into the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats had full control of 17 states compared to Republicans' 10 states. Democrats acknowledge they've let their state parties wither and need to focus on rebuilding.

As former President Barack Obama told NPR's Steve Inskeep after the 2016 election, "you've got a situation where there are not only entire states but also big chunks of states where, if we're not showing up, if we're not in there making an argument, then we're going to lose."

But Democrats have a long way to go. A much touted effort to recruit candidates for this year's Virginia's House of Delegates elections has substantially increased the number of districts Democrats are competing in from 39 in 2015 to 67 today but that still leaves 33 districts where the party was unable to find a candidate to run.

Still, while Democrats haven't won any of the special U.S. House elections so far this year, they've significantly improved their margins even in deeply Republican districts suggesting that Democratic voters are highly motivated.

More evidence of enthusiasm comes from the latest Quinnipiac poll that has 52 percent of voters saying they prefer that Democrats control Congress compared to 38 percent for Republicans. Given the GOP edge in congressional and state legislative districts, Democrats will probably need popular sentiment to sway far in their favor if they are to have a hope of regaining power.

It's still 15 months until Election Day 2018 and plenty can still happen. But based on the landscape, it's hard to see how Republicans can maintain their current level of dominance.

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In The States, Republicans Have Never Been So Dominant Or Vulnerable - KUNC