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When West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice stood next to President Trump during a campaign rally in Huntington, W.Va., on Thursday to announce that he was switching parties and becoming a Republican, it was a historic moment for the GOP.

Justice's decision gives Republicans control of 34 governorships tying a record set nearly a century ago. Democrats hold just 15 governorships. (Alaska's governor is an independent). Republicans now hold so-called trifectas control of a governor's mansion and both chambers of a state legislature in 26 states (including Nebraska's non-partisan unicameral legislature which is effectively controlled by Republicans). Democrats have just six such trifectas. That's in addition to Republicans' complete control of the federal government.

And unlike their D.C. cousins, Republicans in statehouses across the country can point to conservative policy accomplishments this year, such as adding new restrictions on abortion, expanding gun rights, weakening private and public sector labor unions and expanding school voucher programs.

But a constellation of forces means that this level of Republican dominance in the states is brittle and in danger of shattering.

Large playing field, unpopular president

Perhaps the biggest reason Republicans are vulnerable is because of the extent of their past successes at the state level. Republicans are defending 27 of the 38 governors' seats that are up election between now and November 2018. And 14 of those 27 seats will be vacant including large, important states such as Florida, Michigan and Ohio mostly due to term limits.

While it's too early to tell how many races will be truly competitive, it's likely Republicans will face plenty of headwinds. State-level elections have become increasingly nationalized over the past two decades and the president's popularity can have a major impact on voter enthusiasm and turnout especially a challenge with a president as polarizing and unpopular as President Trump currently is.

Infighting and overreach

Years in power have also created problems for state-level Republicans. In Kansas, an overly ambitious plan to cut taxes orchestrated by Gov. Sam Brownback (who's been nominated to a State Department post in the Trump administration) starved the state of funds for its schools and other services. Kansas Republicans wound up bitterly divided over the issue and earlier this year, a moderate faction sided with Democrats to override Brownback's veto and rescind the tax cuts.

Similarly, a series of tax cuts in oil-dependent Oklahoma left the state poorly prepared for a downturn in energy prices. Republican lawmakers were forced to swallow their opposition and vote for tax hikes in order to keep the state solvent.

With Democrats all but vanquished in several Republican-dominated states, intra-Republican disputes have taken center stage. In Texas, Republicans are divided between a business-friendly faction that prioritizes low taxes and less regulation and social conservatives eager to pass the most conservative legislation possible, such as a bill limiting transgender access to bathrooms. Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Rick Scott was running campaign-style ads against fellow Republicans in the legislature over a dispute about economic development funds.

A combination of voters unhappy with the governing party's track record and internal party rifts that will play out in primary elections, sometimes leading to extreme or unqualified candidates, could weigh down Republican candidates up and down the ballot over the next year.

The maps and the courts

After the Republican wave election in 2010, victorious GOP state lawmakers took advantage of that year's decennial redistricting to further entrench their power, especially in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps in North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Georgia and Alabama are already in federal court because of concerns about racial gerrymandering and North Carolina has already been ordered to redraw some of its districts.

But an even greater existential threat to Republican dominance at the state level comes from one of the most important Supreme Court cases of this fall's docket. Arguments in Gill vs. Whitford could determine whether Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin were allowed to take partisanship into account when drawing legislative boundaries. The Republican maps in Wisconsin were so formidably drawn that the GOP won 60 of 99 seats in the Wisconsin House even as Democrats drew more votes statewide in 2012 and 2014.

While both parties use partisan gerrymandering to their advantage, Republicans' dominance at the state level means the GOP has far more on the line from a Supreme Court decision.

Can Democrats capitalize?

The flip side of Republicans' dominance is the weakness of state-level Democrats. Going into the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats had full control of 17 states compared to Republicans' 10 states. Democrats acknowledge they've let their state parties wither and need to focus on rebuilding.

As former President Barack Obama told NPR's Steve Inskeep after the 2016 election, "you've got a situation where there are not only entire states but also big chunks of states where, if we're not showing up, if we're not in there making an argument, then we're going to lose."

But Democrats have a long way to go. A much touted effort to recruit candidates for this year's Virginia's House of Delegates elections has substantially increased the number of districts Democrats are competing in from 39 in 2015 to 67 today but that still leaves 33 districts where the party was unable to find a candidate to run.

Still, while Democrats haven't won any of the special U.S. House elections so far this year, they've significantly improved their margins even in deeply Republican districts suggesting that Democratic voters are highly motivated.

More evidence of enthusiasm comes from the latest Quinnipiac poll that has 52 percent of voters saying they prefer that Democrats control Congress compared to 38 percent for Republicans. Given the GOP edge in congressional and state legislative districts, Democrats will probably need popular sentiment to sway far in their favor if they are to have a hope of regaining power.

It's still 15 months until Election Day 2018 and plenty can still happen. But based on the landscape, it's hard to see how Republicans can maintain their current level of dominance.

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In The States, Republicans Have Never Been So Dominant Or Vulnerable - KUNC

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said Tuesday that he is unlikely to support a "clean" measure to increase the nation's debt limit.

Cole, like many other House Republicans, wants to include spending cuts or other language that would reduce government spending in any measure raising the government's borrowing limit.

"Most Republicans want to do something to lower the trajectory of the debt," Cole said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "I mean, a clean debt ceiling hike is like having a credit card and saying 'I've reached my limit, I'm just going to change the limit higher without changing any of my spending habits.'"

"That's a tough sell to Republicans," he added. "Democrats seem to be fine with that, but I think most of my colleagues aren't."

Democrats have warned that they will not accept spending cuts tied to the debt ceiling bill.

Since Democrats could filibuster a bill in the Senate, this gives the minority plenty of leverage in the upcoming fight.

Congress faces a Sept. 29 deadline for lifting the ceiling. If it does not, markets are likely to suffer and the government could shut down and risk defaulting on its debt.

Cole said that he wants a measure raising the debt ceiling to include policiesthat would aim to reform government spending and debt.

"This idea we can go on spending interminably and just simply raise the debt ceiling every time sooner or later the credit markets are going to make that impossible to do," Cole said. "So let's reassure them and show them we're serious about lowering the deficits and eventually the long-term debt."

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GOP lawmaker: House Republicans not likely to back clean debt ceiling hike - The Hill

From AP/REX/Shutterstock.

Donald Trump, despite his most recent tweets, is as unpopular as ever, even among his own supporters. After 200 days in office, the president has little to boast about, and a major F.B.I. investigation hanging over his head. And Republican lawmakers, back in their home districts for the August recess, are facing tough questions about why, with complete control of Congress, they have mostly failed to pass any meaningful legislation. This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government that weve got to get it done or else I [am] really worried our country will continue down a bad path, House Speaker Paul Ryan warned in Wisconsin this week.

With Septembers debt-ceiling vote looming over Congress, things may get worse before they get better. But for the White House, the honeymoon is already over. Senate Republicansmany of whom are not up for reelection until 2020, or even 2022are growing more defiant of the president with every passing week, with at least a half-dozen lawmakers actively thwarting his agenda. Last month, Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski both defied the administrations numerous attempts to pass a health-care bill through Congress, citing the effect repealing Obamacare would have on their constituents. I didnt come here to represent the Republican Party. I am representing my constituents and the state of Alaska, Murkowski reportedly said to Trumps face. In the final minutes of Mitch McConnells dramatic, last-ditch attempt to pass a skinny repeal bill, Senator John McCain joined them, crushing the administrations hopes with a simple thumbs-down sign.

The presidents insistence that Congress return to the drawing board have mostly fallen on deaf ears. Other admonishments have been rejected entirely. As far as Im concerned, they shot their wad on health care and thats the way it is, Utah Senator Orrin Hatchone of the chambers oldest members and third in line to the presidencyrecently told Politico. On Fox News Sunday, he groused that it would be miraculous if the administration could achieve any of the lower tax rates they are promising. And on Twitter he blasted Trump for banning transgender people from the U.S. military.

As the president finds himself increasingly isolated, several outspoken Republicans have grown bolder. Nebraskas Ben Sasse, a longtime Trump critic since before the election, frequently denounces Trumps Twitter habits and once, when asked to describe Trump in a word, could only manage current president. Jeff Flake has gone further, publishing a book calling Trumps platform free of significant thought and condemning his politics as xenophobic. Much of the grandstanding can be chalked up to early 2020 jockeying, with a handful of potential candidates preparing themselves for the possibility that Trump may not run againor may not even be president at allwhen the next election rolls around.

The path to impeachment runs through the House, still a more Trump-friendly stronghold. But if he does find himself forced out over scandal, it will be in large part because Senate Republicans decided to stop giving the president cover. Senator Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has already signaled his growing impatience with the Trump White Houses frequent delays in handing over pertinent information. (Special counsel Robert Muellers own investigation, which is running parallel to Burrs, recently impaneled a grand jury.) And then there is Senator Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and a three-decade veteran of Congress, who surprised his colleagues by ramping up his own committees efforts to investigate and subpoena the Trumpworld denizens involved in the Russia investigation, as well as the firing of former F.B.I. director James Comey. Grassley has already gone after high-profile members of Trumps inner circle, promising to summon Donald Trump Jr. and Paul Manafort to probe their connections to Russian agents. They may be new to town, but they surely recognize what Chuck Grassleys reputation is, the senator told, referring himself in the third person. And if they dont know it, theyve been told, I bet, a hundred times, he added. I think Ive got a pretty good reputation for being what I call an equal-opportunity overseer.

Even the presidents defenders seem to be distancing themselves of late. Honestly, I enjoy the fact that Congress, the Senate in particular, is charting a course and developing legislation and, lets face it, leading on all of these issues, Senator Bob Corker told CNN on Monday, When my members in the committee say, Well, we have no one here from the administration to weigh in on this, I say, Be careful what you ask for. Its pretty nice the way things are.

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Republicans Have Reached a Tipping Point with Trump - Vanity Fair

Ad will collapse in seconds CLOSE / the national interest August 7, 2017 08/07/2017 8:31 am By Jonathan Chait Share Wall Street in happier days, unburdened by Big Government regulation. Photo: New York Daily News Archive/Getty Images

This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government that weve got to get it done or else I [am] really worried our country will continue down a bad path, said Paul Ryan this weekend. This alignment of government means conservative Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the presidency. The previous two times Ryan is describing are the 1920s, when Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover presided over a Republican-controlled Congress, and the George W. Bush administration. (Ryan is omitting 19531954, when Republicans narrowly controlled both chambers, presumably because Dwight Eisenhower governed as a moderate deeply at odds with conservatives.)

The Republican government of the 1920s ended when a wave of loosely regulated stock speculation produced a crash in the financial system. The Republican government of the 2000s ended the same way. Its not clear what lessons Ryan has absorbed from these prior episodes, but he does not seem to be especially concerned about repeating those policy errors.

In possibly related news, The Wall Street Journal reports today, Penalties levied against firms and individuals by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority in the first half of 2017 were down nearly two-thirds compared with the first half of 2016putting regulators on track for the lowest annual level of fines since at least 2010.

And it is true, as President Trump now boasts on a near-daily basis, that the stock market is performing well. Weak regulations are one way to help produce higher stock values. In the short run.

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As Tillerson meets with Duterte, the Pentagon mulls opening a new front in Americas war against the (so-called) Islamic State.

Hes just the latest in a growing trend of liberal-leaning politicians and political operatives taking up podcasting.

Nobody thought Judge Roy Moore had a chance to win a special Senate election in Alabama, until his main opponents began destroying each other.

The venture capitalist was an early passenger on the Trump Train, but it looks like hes steeling himself for a derailment.

McEnany once mocked Barack Obama for having a brother who lives in a hut in Kenya, and expressed support for the birther movement.

He announced a boost on high-end income-tax rates to fund public-transit fixes and reduced-fare MetroCards.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans can probably avoid a government shutdown or a debt default. But Trumps border wall could be a deal-breaker.

The senator used an interesting term to describe the GOPs health-care defeat.

Trump wants to let coal companies pay well below market rate for the right to despoil public lands and damage the climate.

The GOPs advantage in dominating small states is giving it a permanent advantage in controlling the U.S. Senate, even in bad years for the party.

Wheres John Kelly when you need him?

This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government, says Paul Ryan. So, how did the previous two go?

The government said it was a terrorist attack, but the men claimed they were defending democracy via a legitimate rebellion.

Diplomats complain that the former Exxon CEO is a surprisingly ineffectual manager but that may be what Trump wants.

Many have tried. All have failed.

A new Times report says that some Republicans, including Pence, are quietly betting against Trump being willing or able to run for president again.

No one was injured in the Saturday-morning blast, which may have been a domestic terrorist attack.

The U.S.-drafted resolution, which received unanimous support, is the first international measure taken against Pyongyang since Trump took office.

The DOJ inserting itself into this debate would represent a dramatic break with history and prior practices.

Conservative commentator Eric Bolling is the latest Fox News staffer to be accused of lewd behavior.

Read more:
Republicans Gearing Up for Third Financial Crash in 3 Tries - New York Magazine

The upper chamber of Congress, where acreage gets more representation than actual voters.

Republicans love wide open, empty spaces. From the Oval Office to many Twitter precincts, they like to brandish maps of the 2016-presidential-election results by congressional district, or even by county, implicitly suggesting the bloody-red hues signify political dominance:

This is extremely misleading because Americans are not distributed equally by geography, of course, and acreage does not receive representation in our electoral system, right? Wrong: Theres the United States Senate.

Those who look at all the close presidential elections since 2000 and the roughly equivalent levels of party self-identification and assume the two parties have an equal shot at political power may be missing a subtle shift with profound implications: There are now far more red than blue states, and they have equal representation in the Senate.

As David Wasserman explains at FiveThirtyEight:

In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations

Republicans dont even need to win any swing states to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.

You can see this played out on the current and future Senate landscapes, where sometimes sharp partisan differences occur because only one third of the seats are up in any given cycle.

Democrats have a famously difficult landscape for 2018, defending 25 of 34 seats, with ten Democrats running in states carried by Donald Trump last year (only one GOP incumbent, Dean Heller of Nevada, is running in a state carried by Hillary Clinton).

It gets much better after 2018, right, but the red state/blue state factor limits Democratic opportunities for gains, even in theoretically favorable years.

In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats, with Democrats only defending 11 in 2020. But only two of those 2020 Republicans will be running in states carried by Clinton in 2016, and both of those were relatively close states (Colorado and Maine). In 2022, Republicans will again have to defend 22 seats. But not a single one is in a 2016 blue state.

Republicans having an advantage in the Senate carries no guarantees: At the moment, the Cook Political Report shows Democrats leading in all ten 2016 red states where they are defending Senate seats. If Democrats hold their own in the Senate next year, and particularly if they do well in the 2020 presidential contest, there is no reason they cannot gain control of the upper chamber in 2020 and hold it through 2022. But theyll be fighting a small-state bias built right into the system by the Constitution, which makes a mockery of the idea of equal representation.

As Tillerson meets with Duterte, the Pentagon mulls opening a new front in Americas war against the (so-called) Islamic State.

Hes just the latest in a growing trend of liberal-leaning politicians and political operatives taking up podcasting.

Nobody thought Judge Roy Moore had a chance to win a special Senate election in Alabama, until his main opponents began destroying each other.

The venture capitalist was an early passenger on the Trump Train, but it looks like hes steeling himself for a derailment.

McEnany once mocked Barack Obama for having a brother who lives in a hut in Kenya, and expressed support for the birther movement.

He announced a boost on high-end income-tax rates to fund public-transit fixes and reduced-fare MetroCards.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans can probably avoid a government shutdown or a debt default. But Trumps border wall could be a deal-breaker.

Trump wants to let coal companies pay well below market rate for the right to despoil public lands and damage the climate.

The GOPs advantage in dominating small states is giving it a permanent advantage in controlling the U.S. Senate, even in bad years for the party.

This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government, says Paul Ryan. So, how did the previous two go?

The government said it was a terrorist attack, but the men claimed they were defending democracy via a legitimate rebellion.

Diplomats complain that the former Exxon CEO is a surprisingly ineffectual manager but that may be what Trump wants.

Many have tried. All have failed.

A new Times report says that some Republicans, including Pence, are quietly betting against Trump being willing or able to run for president again.

No one was injured in the Saturday-morning blast, which may have been a domestic terrorist attack.

The U.S.-drafted resolution, which received unanimous support, is the first international measure taken against Pyongyang since Trump took office.

The DOJ inserting itself into this debate would represent a dramatic break with history and prior practices.

Conservative commentator Eric Bolling is the latest Fox News staffer to be accused of lewd behavior.

See original here:
Republicans Are Playing With a Stacked Deck in the Senate - New York Magazine