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The battle for the Senate in 2018 is caught between two opposing forces: math and President Trump.

Let's start with math. Senate Democrats have a heckuva challenge defending their lawmakers in the 2018 midterm election: By virtue of their 2012 victories in some swing and red-leaning states, they now have to defend 25 seats, 10 of which are in states that Trump won.

In some states, like the one Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) is trying to win reelection in, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 40 points! By comparison, Republicans only haveto defend nineseats, one or two of which could be considered vulnerable.

It's feasible that Republicans could expand their 52-seat majority, and, if they had a near-perfect run, get to the coveted filibuster-proof 60.

On the other hand, you have Trump. The party in power normally gets blowback in the first midterm election of a new president.And this president is at historically low approval ratingsthis early on, with warning signs that traditional GOP voters aren't thrilled with his and Congress's performance so far.

Here's another potential warning sign for Senate Republicans that Trump's shadow could undermine their position of strength: Some top potential Senate candidates are turning down the opportunity to challenge vulnerable Senate Democrats.

In Pennsylvania, four-term Rep. Patrick Meehan (R) was considering,then declined, to challenge Sen. Bob Casey. Meehan would have been a bigger name than the two state lawmakers and one borough councilman who have jumped in so far to try to challenge Casey.

In Indiana, a state Trump won by 19 points, Rep. Susan Brooks (R) said she wouldn't try to challenge Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). The IndyStar said Brooks would have been a potentially formidable opponent, though it reports two other GOP House lawmakers are considering a run as well: Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita.

In Wisconsin, a state Trump won by less than a percentage point, leading potential challenger Rep. Sean P. Duffy (R) said he won't run against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). This is not the right time to run for Senate, he said in a statement, pointing to his eight kids. A couple of state lawmakers, a teacher, a Marine veteran and a businessman are all considering running, which could create a messy primary.

Republicans' recruitment struggles in Montana is related to Trump but in a different way. Former representativeRyan Zinke (R) was thought to be Republicans' strongest candidate to challenge one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators, Jon Tester, in a state Trump won by 29 points. Then Trump picked Zinke to be secretary of theinterior, and it isn't clear who will challenge Tester beside a first-term state senator who recently announcedhe's in.

November 2018 is still a year and a half away, so there's no rule that Senate candidates have to get in right now. But already, several potential top-tier candidates in Trump states have thought about challenging Democrats, then decided not to. That doesn't help Republicans counter a nascent narrative, both in GOP circles and outside of it, that Trump could weigh them down in 2018.

This is all playing out in the context of Democrats flush with momentum and money from a liberal base stoked to challenge Trump. Many of these Senate Democrats reported this week that they raised a record amount of money for their states a year and a half before the election. (Though Republican Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada kept pace with them, too.)

And a closer-than-expected congressional election in a red district in Kansas and a coming one in Georgia suggest that voters in traditional Republican districts aren't thrilled with their party's performance in Washington so far.

Of course, Republicans have more opportunities to knock off Democrats than just these couple ofstates we listed. And Democrats, who only have two-ish Republican states where they can feasibly play in, don't have candidates yet either.

Butsince we're going to spend the next 574 days trying to assess which opposing force is stronger in the 2018 Senate midterms math or Trump's unpopularity let's plant an early flag and say that, so far, Trump's unpopularity appears to be weighing on Senate Republicans.

Read this article:
Do Senate Republicans have a Trump recruiting problem? - Washington Post

HOOD RIVER, Ore. Rep. Greg Walden, who helped craft the failed House GOP health-careproposal as a key committee chairman, said Tuesday that Republicans may have to wait even longerto act on it.

Walden, an Oregon Republican and chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said the GOP may have to use a future budget measure to pass itsversion of repealing and replacing Obamacare.

You could make an argument that says, Okay, we couldnt get it done now, Walden said in an interview.

Weve had people tell us: Why take this on first? You should have done infrastructure, you should have done tax reform, he added. It may be where we end up.

Walden was referring to the stalled American Health Care Act which he and other senior Republicans, including House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) attempted to pass before lawmakers left Washington for a two-week recess. Ryan ultimately did not bring that bill to the House floor after negotiations with conservatives and moderates fell apart amid bitter infighting. Trump backed the plan and lobbied members to support it. But he vowed to move on after the plans implosion and seek the passage of his other legislative priorities.

The president may have changed his mind, however. In an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday, Trump said that health care must come first before he turns to other items on his agenda, such as a tax-code rewrite anda $1 trillion infrastructure plan.

Health care is going to happen at some point, Trump told Fox. Now, if it doesnt happen fast enough, Ill start the taxes. But the tax reform and the tax cuts are better if I can do health care first.

But the AHCA failure significantly complicates things in terms of timing and process. Republicans are using special budget rules to smooth the passage of several top priorities, including a health-care and tax revamp. Those rules allow them to pass measures with a simple majority in the Senate instead of the 60 votes typically needed to enact legislation in the Senate, where they are not expected to get any Democratic support. (Republicans have 52 seats in the Senate.)

Walden noted in the interview that health care could be considered in next years budget bill. Im not saying this is going to wait until next year, but you will have another budget next year, he explained.

It is unclear whether Walden was referring to the 2018 budget bill, which Republicans had intended to use as a vehicle for the tax overhaul that Trump now says could be on hold. The president acknowledged in the interview that the failure to enact a health-care measure means that the party has not achieved the expected savings needed to pay for a reduction in tax rates.

Walden insisted that despite GOP disarray, the health plan is still alive, pointing to efforts by Vice President Pence and other White House officials to rally support on Capitol Hill.

Theres a lot of pressure at the end to get something going, he said.

Much is riding on the GOP effort to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. Many Republicans gained their seat in past elections on promises to repeal it, and the laws marketplaces are facing serious difficulties amid reduced plan offerings and hiked premiums.

Walden called it frustrating for Republicans to falter so publicly in their efforts toward that end.

Legislatings nots easy, especially on something this big that matters so much to peoples lives, and Id rather take the time to get it right, he said.

Excerpt from:
GOP House leader says there are ways Republicans can forge ahead on health care - Washington Post

(Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

Donald Trump campaigned as an outsider who would upend years of Washington orthodoxy in matters of both war and peace an approach that helped him assemble the unconventional coalition that ultimately won him the presidency.

But in recent days, the president has done an about-face and embraced many of the policy positions he once scorned as the trappings of a foolhardy establishment.

Trump voiced support for NATO, which he called obsolete during the campaign. He walked back his pledge to label China acurrency manipulator and endorsed the Export-Import Bank, which he had opposed.

These and other recent flip-flops have soothed the nerves of many Republicans who worried he was looking to upend too much of the status quo. But they could also alienate some supporters, who see Washington co-opting yet another politician elected to reform the government.

On Thursday, White House press secretary Sean Spicer argued that it wasnt Trump who had shifted.

(Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)

If you look at whats happened, its those entities or individuals in some cases, or issues, evolving towards the presidents position, Spicer said. I think you look at the presidents position, where he wanted to see NATO in particular evolve to, and its moving exactly in the direction that he said it was in terms of its goals of increasing the amount of participation from other member countries; and two, its having a greater focus on terrorism.

NATO has been moving toward greater burden-sharing for years and has long been involved in counterterrorism, particularly since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Spicer also pointedly declined to explain why Trump changed his position on a slate of other issues that had remained essentially unchanged since he was a candidate.

The administration has slow-walked moves toward renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement, despite his railing against the deal as a candidate. And the Trump administration has approved aggressive, even hawkish stances overseas on issues such as Syria, the Islamic State and North Korea, regardless of Trumps often noninterventionist stances during the campaign.

[The Daily 202: Here are eight flip-flops since Trump was inaugurated]

Among those heartened by the changes is Elliott Abrams, a former Never Trump Republican who had a change of heart but was rejected for a senior post in Trumps State Department because he was considered too much of an establishment Republican.

I would say this is looking more now like a more conventional Republican administration, said Abrams, who served as a foreign policy adviser in the Reagan and George W. Bush administrations. To me, thats a very good thing.

Trumps opposition to the Export-Import Bank a government agency that subsidizes U.S. exports endeared him to movement conservatives who labeled it corporate welfare and crony capitalism. It fit well with a campaign message in which Trump railed against the global elite conspiring against the common man.

But to the thrill of establishment Republicans, corporate leaders and some Democrats, Trump reversed course this week, solidifying a shift he first signaled in February.

Instinctively, you would say, Isnt that a ridiculous thing? ... But, actually, its a very good thing, he told the Wall Street Journal in an interview this week. It turns out that ... lots of small companies are really helped!

Almost immediately, the move drew praise from Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.), whose state gets an economic boost from the bank.

Well done, Mr. President, Graham said in a statement.

The thaw, especially among Republican hawks, seemed to begin in earnest last week when Trump, faced with his first major foreign policy test, sided with the use of military force in Syria. That decision which contradicted Trump stances dating to 2013 endeared him to members of Congress such as Graham and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who had criticized his isolationist campaign rhetoric.

[Three big ways Trump is starting to sound like Obama on the economy]

I think its a product of the fact that he didnt understand foreign affairs, presidential historian Tim Naftali said of the president. His business career didnt afford him much information on foreign affairs. Hes learning on the job.

On economic issues, some have speculated that Trumps shift has been linked to the growing influence of a group of advisers led by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, many of whom are political moderates and who came to the administration from Wall Street.

The rift between Kushner-backed aides such as National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn and Republican hard-liners in the administration especially the presidents chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon has only grown in recent weeks, raising questions about whether Trump will abandon the economic populism that got him elected in favor of a more traditional platform influenced by Wall Street.

But Trumps backers say that, from the beginning, the president assembled a Cabinet of military leaders, establishment Republicans and business leaders who would be at home in the Cabinets of more traditional Republicans. And he has pursued policies in other areas on immigration, the budget, taxes, and rolling back the Affordable Care Act that have left many conservatives content with the direction his administration is headed.

The budget hes put out is an incredible budget. Hes pushed hard to abolish Obamacare, said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform. The tax bill he put forward is Reaganite in all its forms, so Im looking at a guy who did exactly what he said he was going to do on every big issue.

Both on China and NATO, he rattled the cage and got movement in the direction that he wanted, Norquist said, and, at least as of now, NATO is behaving the way he wants it to and the Chinese might be more helpful in Korea.

[President Trump, king of flip-flops (continued)]

One former Trump aide, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said that the president is known to form initial opinions based on instinct but later to change his stance based on new information and the influence of his advisers.

He has a general reaction to something, then after he does a lot more homework on the situation, he can change his view, the former adviser said. The reason most of these voters voted on him was less because of the core issues, it was more based on the Trump decision-making, the Trump judgment.

Yet Trump promised his supporters a coalition that included larger-than-expected numbers of non-college educated, working-class voters that he would pursue populist policies that put the interests of American workers first. It remains to be seen whether these changes will be viewed as moving toward that goal.

John Weaver, a former presidential campaign aide to Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), said that so far, the dissonance between Trumps campaign pledges and his current positions havent touched on core promises, such as bringing back U.S. jobs or seeking to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

The fact that he says one thing or another about NATO has no impact on their day-to-day lives, Weaver said of Trumps supporters.

And with Trump, allies and adversaries alike are never sure he wont change his mind again.

It represents Trump is a New York City liberal returning back to form, said Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist sharply critical of Trump. People should not be surprised.

But Trump, he added, because he has a short attention span, could easily flop back.

Follow this link:
Trump as a 'conventional Republican'? That's what some in GOP ... - Washington Post

WASHINGTON In a spate of local elections last week in Illinois, Democrats picked up seats in places theyve never won before.

The city of Kankakee elected its first African-American, Democratic mayor. West Deerfield Township will be led entirely by Democrats for the first time. Elgin Township voted for a complete changeover, flipping to an all-Democratic board. Normal Township elected Democratic supervisors and trustees to run its board the first time in more than 100 years that a single Democrat has held a seat.

We had a pretty good day, said Dan Kovats, executive director of the Illinois Democratic County Chairmens Association. We won in areas we normally would win, but we also won in areas Republicans never expected us to be competitive in. They were caught flat-footed.

These may seem like relatively small victories were talking about municipal races in towns with tens of thousands of people but they fit with a broader pattern that should have Republicans on edge ahead of the 2018 elections: Progressive grassroots activism,exploding with energy since President Donald Trumps win in November, isfueling Democratic gains in GOP strongholds.

This week, a Democratic congressional candidate in Kansas nearly pulled off a shocking winin a heavily Republican district. In Georgia, 30-year-old Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff is outpacing his GOP rivals in a race to replace former Rep. Tom Price. The seat has long been Republican and was once held by former Speaker Newt Gingrich. These races come after a Democraticstate Senate candidate in Delaware, buoyed by anti-Trump activism, annihilated her GOP challengerin an election thats traditionally been close.

In the case of Illinois,a number of Democrats who just won got a boost from a program launched by Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) called Build The Bench. Its an all-day boot camp that offers nuts-and-bolts details for running a successful campaign. Bustos came up with the idea last year when she noticed a dearth of new Democratic candidates for Congress, and decided the best way to help build up her partys ranks was at the local level.

Shes held two boot camps in her district so far The Huffington Post attended one of them in March and shes already seeing tremendous payoff.Twelve Build The Bench alumni ran for local seats in this election cycle, and eight of them won. A ninth alum, Rita Ali, is currently down by one vote in her race for Peoria City Council.

I am incredibly proud that the majority of our graduates who were on the ballot in April municipal elections won their races, said Bustos. If we want to be successful in the heartland, we need to connect Democratic candidates for office at all levels with the best practices, skills and expertise needed to run winning campaigns.

Chemberly Cummings and Arlene Hosea are among the Build The Bench alumni who recently won races.They both made history by becoming the first black members of Normal Town Council and Normal Township Trustee, respectively. That is no small feat in a predominately white, Republican region of the state.

Theres this concept in Bloomington-Normal that everybody is conservative, said Cummings, a 34-year-old State Farm employee. But we are a group of people who are actually concerned about the issues in our community. I also think ... when you have the representative of a party who is negative, I think youll start to see some things change. Nobody wants to be associated with something negative. They want to be associated with the positive.

Hosea, a 57-year-old former Illinois State University employee, came out of retirement to run for her seat. She hadnt planned on going into politics, but was deeply affected by Trumps divisive tone all last year.

I am a descendent of slavery, she said. I saw and heard on the campaign trail so much awful rhetoric. My mom is still alive, shes 90, and she faced racism through all of her childhood. I thought, Arlene, you have to do more. You have to be the change that you want to see.

As someone born and raised in the area, Hosea said she takes pride in being able to give back to her towns next generation. She got choked up thinking about how far she and her family have come, recalling how her mom lived through Jim Crow in the South and once watched the Ku Klux Klan drag her uncle out of the house and almost beat him to death in front of her when she was a child.

Even if its just my seat at the table, they get to see me at that table. I have a voice, Hosea said, her voice cracking. In this community, no one has done it. So, its time.

Of course, not everyone can win their first campaign.Jodie Slothower, a Build The Bench attendee who HuffPost met in March, lost her race for Normal Township clerk. She is disappointed, of course, but shes already onto her next project: fueling the progressive momentum to oust more Republicans, like Rep. Rodney Davis (Ill.). She started a grassroots mobilization group in November, Voices of Reason, and its up to 2,000 members.

We have events planned all the way through August, Slothower said. Were going to keep up the pressure on the congressman. Were figuring out how to take what weve learned here and bring it to other communities. We have a lot of work to do.

Read more:
Democrats In Illinois Just Unseated A Whole Bunch Of Republicans - Huffington Post

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democrats are about as supportive of the strikes as they were under Obama, with 38 percent backing them in 2013 and 37 percent agreeing with them now, according to the Washington Post. Now 86 percent of Republican voters back the strikes, compared with the just 22 percent who did so in 2013.

This is a pretty stunning difference. Democratic views stayed solidly negative regardless of who was president. But Republican approval rates skyrocketed from 22 percent to 86 percent when Trump became president. This despite the fact that Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons was more extensive in 2013 than it was this year.

To be honest, I figured the data on economic views was a fluke. Now I wonder. It's difficult to make these comparisons over time because you rarely have identical circumstances to compare. Trump's Syrian bombing is unusually similar to the situation in 2013. Still, there are bound to be others. I wonder if this is a fairly consistent result? What other examples do we have of presidents of the opposite party doing extremely similar things and getting different responses from partisans?

See the article here:
Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It - Mother Jones