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Republican Ron Estes won a competitive congressional race in Kansas, marking the first special election of the year for a House seat vacated by a Republican lawmaker. (The Washington Post)

On Tuesday night, Democrat James Thompson did not win the first congressional election in the country since President Trump was elected. But he came within seven points in one of the most Republican districts in the nation. And Democrats are absolutely thrilled about what that says about their party in the era of Trump with good reason.

If we can make Republicans go into full-on freakout mode in a ruby red Kansas congressional district now, said Jim Dean, director of the progressive group Chair of Democracy for America in a statement, we have the power to rip the gavel out of Paul Ryans hands in November 2018.

Maybe. What happens in April 2017 does not mean the same thing will happen in November 2018, when the entire House of Representatives is up for reelection. But it's the best evidence we've got that right now, votersin traditionally Republican districts aren't thrilled with Trump.

As my colleague Aaron Blake wrote yesterday, it's hard to overstate just how Republican this Wichita-area congressional district has been:

On Tuesday, this district swung more than 20 points in favor of the Democrat. There were some, but not alot of race-specific factors that should have made this much of a difference.

Thompson, an Army veteran and civil rights attorney with no legislative experience and very little help from the national Democratic Party, wasn't an uber-gifted candidate who could overcome these fundamental barriers. Nor was Rep.-elect Ron Estes, the state treasurer, a particularly flawed GOP candidate. Though we'll add that the governor, Sam Brownback (R), is incredibly unpopular in the state, and Estes is a part of his administration.

Brownback's unpopularity aside, that leads us to conclude per our guide on how to pundit like a pro that there are national factors that spurred Thompson's surprisingly close loss. Specifically, this election could be a window into how voters in this deep-red congressional district feel about Trump and Republicans' leadership right now.

Especially in aspecial election, most voters aren't paying much attention to the candidates, said Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan elections analyst and columnist at The Washington Post. Which means many are voting to send a message to Washington rather than for or against a specific congressional candidate.

When they think about choices, they tend to think big choices: change versus status quo, Rothenberg said. Keep the president, or send a message of dissatisfaction to the president.

Seen through that lens, Thompson's seven-point loss should have Republicans across the country very worried. Estes performed 20 points worse than Trump did in this district just five months ago. In 2018, Republicans will be defending23 seats that Clinton won. If Democrats can net 24 seats, they would recapture the majority.

More immediately, Kansas's results willlikely rev up progressive momentum in a more high-profile special election coming up in a week outside Atlanta, where 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff is trying to win a majority of the vote against some 16 mostly Republican candidates to replace former congressman Tom Price, who is now Trump's health and human services secretary. Again, this is a traditionally Republican district, and the fact we're even talking about its competitiveness is extraordinary.

This race is as much about the next year and a half nationally as it is about district, Rothenberg said. Ossoff wins and suddenly every Republican in a swing district is going to be nervous, and they will demonstrate their independence.

If Ossoff wins, or even if he forces the race into a runoff, that could manifest an even bigger drag on Trump's historically low popularity: House Republicans become more resistant to working with their president, whichin turn makes Trump's job trying to pass big legislation with his party that much more difficult. And that in turn leaves him and a Republican Congress without many victories to call home about next November.

In the past, special election upsets were trembles of a big wave coming against the party in power.

It's still a year and a half away, but what we know right now is that Republicans can barely hang onto a districtthat Trump won by nearly 27 points.

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A Republican won in Kansas. But here's why the GOP is not celebrating. - Washington Post

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Policymakers reacted swiftly this week to the outrageous viral video of police officers forcibly removing an innocent passenger from an overbooked United Airlines flight. A new passenger bill of rights, including regulations on bumping people from flights, was announced on Tuesdayby Canada's transportation ministry.

"Their constituents are being mistreated, just like Democratic constituents."

Here in the United States, at least one party has a long history of siding with the airlines at the expense of their passengers. "It's an ongoing frustration that we haven't had good cooperation on the Republican side," says Sally Greenberg, executive director of the National Consumers League. "Their constituents are being mistreated, just like Democratic constituents. I'm disappointed and frustrated."

In 2016 alone, Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) introduced 22 different consumer-protection riders to a funding bill for the Federal Aviation Administration. Among other things, the proposals would have placed a moratorium on seat-size shrinkage, required more transparency about ticket fees and passenger complaints, promoted competition between airlines, and ensured that passengers had the right to sue airlines instead of being forced into arbitration. (See the complete list below.) None of the proposals made it through the GOP-controlled Senate.

"The degrading treatment of this [United passenger] is the latest example of a major US airline disrespecting passengers and denying them their basic rights," Blumenthal wrote to Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao on Tuesday. "Your agency must conduct a swift, sweeping investigation into United Airlines and the industry practices that led to this incident."

Congressional Republicans delayed for years the passage of the handful of consumer protections that exist for airline passengers. During the George W. Bush administration, GOP senators killed a passengers bill of rights that, among other things, would have restricted how long people could be confined to a grounded airplane without food and drinks. In 2011, the Obama administration enacted a stricter version of the rule administratively, adding requirements that airlines reimburse passengers for lost bags, disclose extra ticket fees on their websites, and compensate bumped passengers financially.

During the last election cycle, the top airline lobbying group gave almost six times as much cash to Republicans as to Democrats.

"The Republicans can be viewed as the party of big business, whereas Democrats are more for personal rights and equality," says Ranier Jenss, director of the Family Travel Association. One provision his group backed that requires airlines to let families with children sit together on flights free of charge became law last yearbut only after it attracted support from a Republican congressman who'd had a family member get separated from his kids during a flight, Jenss says.

Not all Republicans, after all, are airline industry lapdogs. On Tuesday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie asked the TSA's Chao to suspend the federal regulation permitting airlines to overbook flights and remove passengers as a result. "This conduct is abusive and outrageous," Christie said in a press release. "The ridiculous statements, now in their third version, of the CEO of United Airlines displays their callousness toward the traveling public with the permission of the federal government."

The airline industry, however, favors Republicans. In the most recent election cycle, United Continental Holdings gave them $547,000, versus $497,000 for Democratsa split that roughly mirrors the industry's spending patterns. The main airline lobbying group, Airlines for America, leans far more toward Republicans: It donated about $85,000 to Democrats in the latest cycle. It gave nearly six times that much (about $478,500) to Republicans and conservative groups, according to OpenSecrets.org. In 2015, Politico reported that House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Bill Shuster (R-Penn.) was actually dating Shelly Rubino, an Airlines for America executive. Republicans "are literally in bed with the industry!" says the National Consumers League's Greenberg.

She hopes the United scandal will convince Republicans to end their love affair with Big Air: "I think Congress is going to be under a lot of pressure to take some decisive action because of what people saw in that video." ______

Here's what Sen. Richard Blumenthal proposed last year to keep airlines in check. But not one of his amendments made it past Mitch McConnell et al.

Read more:
Airlines Treat People Like Dirt Because the Republicans in Congress Let Them - Mother Jones

And it was scary as hell.

With six weeks left on the clock, the Republican majorities elected last November to the Minnesota Legislature are rapidly passing the budget bills that will dictate the states spending for the next two years. Or its lack of spending.

Despite a $1.6 billion surplus, Republicans are still slashing budgets all over the place to pay for tax cuts: $900 million, if Senate Republicans get their way, or the titanic $1.35 billion pushed by House Republicans.

The Minnesota they envision has little in common with the one we live in now. In this time of Passover, their proposals are beginning to sound a bit like the biblical chapter Exodus. If you recall, before the Israelites made it to freedom, things got a little hairy.

1. Water into blood: Ostensibly a spending bill, the House environment bill is littered with policies that will make it easier for businesses to pollute water. Most egregious is a change in how we handle Environmental Impact Statements (EIS), worst-case scenario assessments for air, water, and soil, which are currently overseen by state agencies. The GOP wants to allow businesses to submit their own environmental paperwork. If people living by a slaughterhouse notice a rust color and an iron aftertaste to their tap water, they should stop drinking it and consider using it as the base for a soup.

2. Lice: House Republicans public safety budget would push the state to reopen a 1,600-bed prison in Appleton. Minnesota would enter into a contract with CoreCivic, a publicly traded corporation notorious for valuing its stock price more than inmate healthcare. Watch for a horde of lice, already a common problem in the joint, to descend upon its inmates. To be fair to CoreCivic, its customers complain less after theyre killed in a riot sparked by shoddy conditions.

3. Mixture of wild animals: Most of the savings Senate Republicans found on health care come from bumping debt payments from May to June. (New fiscal year, new you, Minnesota!) But the bill does include a 7 percent reduction to the Minnesota Department of Health, the agency that handles restaurant inspections in St. Paul. Evidently, Senate Republicans want their lunch breaks to have an element of mystery. Senator Benson, what kind of tacos did you get? Answer: I dont know! But I just spit out what appears to be a dog collar.

4. Boils: The House health budget is even stingier. Though costs rise each year, Rep. Matt Dean (R-Dellwood) is positively convinced the Department of Human Services (DHS) can find more than $370 million worth of savings through competitive bidding and by throwing ineligible people off programs. (Perversely, DHS is supposed to play cops-and-robbers while being underfunded to the tune of 300 employees.) If Deans cost-cutting dreams dont come true? Its up to DHS to figure out which vulnerable Minnesotans dont get medical attention. When visiting a relative in the states care, remember to bring rubbing alcohol, a lighter, and a safety pin so you can lance any bedsore infections.

5. Thunderstorms of hail: At the last minute, Republicans remembered theyd meant to give another handout to the fossil fuel industry. Language tacked to an energy bill would allow Enbridge to build an oil pipeline at its sole discretion and along its preferred route. That hands-off treatment removes state regulators in nearly identical fashion to a bill that lets Xcel Energy do what it wants with a new natural gas plant. Our policy-makers are in a state of climate science denial. Perhaps theyll be convinced when they look out their office windows to see a mile-wide microburst approaching the Capitol parking lot.

6. Darkness: The House tax plan cuts the so-called estate tax, assessed solely to the fortunes of deceased million- and billionaires. It also slashes the corporate industrial property tax, which costs businesses based on the value of land they own. Combined, just those two elements would subtract nearly $1 billion in tax revenue over the next four years. How do they account for the losses? They dont. The losses compound, and Minnesotas ability to carry out the basic functions of governing five million people gets less and less each year. Imagine how much well save when we dont even have to turn on the lights at the Capitol.

7. The loss of first-born children: Those tax cuts are just one example of how legislative Republicans absorbed corporate CEOs priorities as their own. Whos losing out? The sick and the poor, sure. But the GOP agenda is also a huge fuck you to the educated young people they and economists say are making our state great. Theyre cutting money for colleges and for preschool programs that help working people with kids. Theyre penalizing cities (read: Minneapolis and St. Paul) for trying to ban plastic bags and not rounding up immigrants. Theyre defunding city buses and declaring war on light rail. Theyre siding with oil, insurance companies, and Big Ag.

If Gov. Mark Dayton cant get Republicans to reconsider, the final plague visited upon Minnesota will be the sudden loss of all those young professionals with degrees, ideas, and expendable money, who will instead set off for the promised progressive lands of Oregon, Washington, and Colorado.

They that sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind... and they dont even know you can convert whirlwind into electricity.

More from Mike Mullen:

Read more:
The 7 plagues of the Republican budget - City Pages

Conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus have shouldered the majority of the blame for the GOPs failure to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law, but moderates may beequally if not more responsible for the impasse.

There are arguably more hard no votes (members not likely to be convinced to move to yes) for the GOP leaderships plan among moderate Republicans than there are among the members of the Freedom Caucus.

The Freedom Caucus, however, is the easier scapegoat. Many of the caucuss members vote against leaderships plans more often than members from other factions of the GOP conference. But on this issue the moderates have more to lose.

Several Republicans described health care as a deeply personal issue in their explanation forwhy its so difficult to find conference agreement over a single plan.

If you buy that rationale, it helps explain why moderates arent jumping on board with leaderships bill like they have with measures to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. They can logicallyexplain voting for compromise legislation that keeps the government open or the nation from defaulting on its debt.

But a similar rationale does not exist in the case of health care. Moderates are having trouble finding a logical reason to vote for a bill that would result in 24 million people not having health insurance.

Politically, repealing the 2010 health care law is a murky issue in many of the swing districts that moderate Republicans represent. If they vote for a repeal bill without a viable replacement to protect their constituents health care, they could face losing their 2018 re-election races.

Moderates who are supportive of the heath care bill understand the dilemma many of their colleagues face.

Theyre in states that are fairly liberal in their thought process to the role of government related to health insurance. Theyre in states that expanded Medicaid. Theyre just very different parts of the country, New York Rep. Chris Collins said last week.

Collins and his fellow New York Republicans are largelymoderates from a state that expanded Medicaid, but most of their concerns were allayed with the addition of a provision to exempt New York counties from contributions to the states Medicaid program. That addition, which Collins and Rep. John Faso helped secure, is one of the reasons Rep. Dan Donovan will likely never vote for the bill. The Collins-Faso provision does not apply to New York City, which Donovanrepresents.

Then theres New York Rep. John Katko, who promised his constituents he would not vote for a bill that repeals the health care bill unless there was an adequate replacement offered at the same time. He explained in a statement that the GOP plan does not provide adequate market-based options for insurance access nor does it address skyrocketing costs.

Two no votes among New Yorks nine GOP members is still a lot of division for astate that effectively secured an earmark to win its members support. In other delegations, the divide is even greater.

Four of five New Jersey Republicans announced they would vote no on the bill, positions which they appear to still hold. The states sole supporter of the bill is Rep. Tom MacArthur, co-chair of the moderate Tuesday Group. MacArthur has become the de facto negotiator for moderates that are willing to support the bill, whilethe groups longtime co-chair Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania remains unlikely to flip to yes.

Ill listen, but Im still a no, Dent saidlast week.

Among a list of concerns, Dent worried that continuing to shift the policy to the right will make the legislation unpassable in the Senate.

A lot of members here dont want to walk the plank for a bill that may not ever be brought up, may not ever be passed by the Senate, Dent said before the March 23 vote on the bill was postponed and then canceled.

Vice President Mike Pence and Trump administration officials madethe rounds last week among Republican caucuses, trying to whip up support for an idea they hoped would get conservatives on board without losing any moderate votes in the process. But the White House has not focused on what may happen to the bill in the Senate. Nor has it tried to win over many of the moderates who opposed the bill.

For example, those involved in negotiations frequently refer to MacArthur when speaking about talks with moderates, and sometimes the Tuesday Groups third co-chair Elise Stefanik, but never Dent. Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenry last week complimented MacArthur and Stefanik for being constructive. Asked if his omission of Dent meant that he was not being constructive, McHenry said only, Hes a colleague and friend of mine.

The negotiations with MacArthur and other moderates have focused onkeeping the yes votes on board, rather than working through the hodgepodge of concerns raised by the moderate no votes.

Instead, Pence targeted the bloc of no votes in Freedom Caucus with a pitch to allow states to seek a waiver to opt out of certain insurance regulations. The proposed waivers gave the Freedom Caucus hope that their concerns were finally being addressed, but then moderate yes votes started coming out against the idea.

That see-saw effect of negotiations shifting between Republicans on the far right and those in the center has gone onfor weeks. Most members remain optimistic theyll find the right balance, but if they dont, both sides will be to blame.

There will be some people in both groups who can never get to yes. And thats ok, MacArthur said. We can lose 20-plus votes and still have this carry.

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See more here:
Analysis: Moderate Republicans Also to Blame for Health Care Impasse - Roll Call

Americas governors want Congress to end a longstanding ban on internet gambling at least, enough of them do to warrant the National Governors Association firing off a letter to U.S. Attorney General Jeff SessionsJeff SessionsIs Trumps presidency the patriarchys last gasp? Republicans of all people should shun federal online gambling ban Sessions: Congress will fund Trump's border wall MORE.

The regulation of gaming has historically been addressed by the states, the governors explained. While individual governors have different views about offering gaming in a variety of forms within their own states, we agree that decisions at the federal level that affect state regulatory authority should not be made unilaterally without state input.

In his opening remarks during his confirmation hearing, then-Senator Sessions assured his colleagues that if confirmed to lead the agency he would respect your Constitutional duties, your oversight role, and the particularly critically important separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches. Sessions also expressed disdain for agencies that set about their own agendasfocused only on what they feel are the goals of their agency (without giving) sufficient respect to the rule of law.

Yet, during that same confirmation hearing, Sessions indicated that as attorney general he would revisit and likely overturn a 2011 opinion by the agency that restored federal gambling law to Congresss original intent and returned power to regulate intrastate gambling to the states.

Conservative split with GOP mega-donor (and casino owner) Sheldon Adelson over his efforts to block online gambling. https://t.co/3a7JHI4hpG pic.twitter.com/e3U6rmPx2r

Whats your view of Obamas administrations interpretation of the Wire Act law to allow online video poker, prompted Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey GrahamRepublicans of all people should shun federal online gambling ban McCain, Graham push Trump for 'greater military action' in Syria Tax march protesters pressure Republicans who called for Trump tax returns MORE, who has twice introduced bills to ban online gambling. I was shocked at the memorandumand criticized it, Sessions answered. Apparently, there is some justification or argument that can be made to support the Department of Justices position, but I did oppose it when it happened. When asked if he would revisit the decision, Sessions nodded. I would revisit it and make a decision about it based on careful study and I havent gone that far to give you an opinion today, he said.

The comments sent shockwaves throughout the states many of which legalized some form of Internet gambling and many others are still considering proposals to do so. The memo at issue was one issued by the Justice Departments Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) in 2011 making it clear that the Wire Act, a law enacted by Congress in 1961 to prosecute the mobs telephone sports betting rackets, only prohibits interstate sports gambling.

Though Graham and a handful of other Republicans insist that the OLCs opinion was a unilateral reinterpretation of the Wire Act, it actually restored the law to the original meaning intended by the Congress that enacted it. As I thoroughly detailed in a 2014 study for the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, there is no doubt that law was meant to assist the states in the enforcement of their laws, and not to create a blanked federal prohibition on all Internet gambling.

Opponents of state efforts to legalize online gambling have seized on Sessionss comments, claiming it is indicative of an unstable legal environment as a way to scare state legislatures that are considering proposals to legalize online gambling. Everyone is sort of waiting to hear what the DOJ has to say, Pennsylvania Rep. Aaron Kaufer told reporters. With the fluid situation in Washington, internet gambling is an unreliable and possibly nonexistent source of revenue, David Cookson warned during this months joint hearing on Internet gambling proposals before the Pennsylvania legislature. Cookson represents casino-owner Sheldon Adelsons Coalition to Stop Internet Gambling.

While a small number of Republicans want a federal online gambling ban, many other Republicans, free market organizations, and proponents of federalism have loudly opposed a ban. As he indicated in his testimony, Sessions should be on the side of letting Congress make the lawsnot the DOJ.

As a Republican, he should also favor letting people and the states that represent them make their own decisions and be very cautious about setting a dangerous anti-federalism precedent, not just for online gambling, but for any number of other politically disfavored activities. The decisions made now about online gambling will impact all sorts of issues for years to come.

Michelle Minton is a fellow specializing in consumer policy for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.

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Republicans of all people should shun federal online gambling ban - The Hill (blog)