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On Friday, there was a feeling of dj vu around the Minnesota Capitol.

After repeated delays in negotiations, the GOP leaders of the state Legislature decided to move ahead with a two-year, $46 billion state budget plan without final sign-off from DFL Gov. Mark Dayton. The Republicans said it was necessary in order to move the budget bills through the cumbersome legislative process before a constitutional deadline to adjourn session at midnight on Monday.

Its the second batch of budget bills Republicans have sent to Dayton this month without an agreement; the first round saw all the budget bills vetoed by the governor. Its also a repeat of 2015, when legislative leaders sent the governor budget bills without a final agreement. Its exactly where we were two years ago, Republican House Speaker Kurt Daudt said. We have decided to set joint budget targets that we think represent real compromise with the governor. We have moved our positions pretty significantly.

The move assures a messy finish to the 2017 legislative session, with a hurried weekend of budget work ahead and potential vetoes forthcoming from the governor. During an appearance on Twin Cities PBS Almanac show on Friday night, Dayton did not promise to veto all of the budget bills sent his way, but he said he was disappointed Republicans went ahead without him on the budget after he left meetings this afternoon to attend a funeral.

This is divided government, and they are already saying, We are going to have the budget the way we want it, Dayton said.

GOP leaders have released new budget targets that include a $660 million tax cut proposal, which is lower than the more than $1 billion tax cut they originally wanted but more than what Dayton had proposed. They also want to spend about $467 million more on education over the next two years; $200 million on higher education; and $164 million for courts and public safety. The targets also include more than $250 million in reductions to health and human services spending.

Progress was slow on a budget deal between the two sides all week. On Wednesday, Dayton offered a halfway proposal to split the surplus. But the two sides disagreed about what actually constituted the halfway point of the surplus, throwing a wrench into the negotiations. Even after a secret meeting at the governors residence Thursday evening and hushed meetings throughout the day Friday, Republican leaders and the governor still werent able to reach a global agreement.

So Republicans decided to move forward without Dayton. The Legislature has a job to do and it takes a few days, Daudt said. Weve reached that point where we have to start that process.

In 2015, the last time legislators sent Dayton a plan without his sign-off, the governor ultimately vetoed three of the budget bills, leading to a one-day special session that was nearly derailed over disagreements about spending on the environment. Republicans said they dont want that to happen this year, and plan to meet with Dayton over the weekend with the goal of drafting agreements he can sign. They have left $86 million unspent in their targets to accommodate ongoing negotiations.

This does not mean we are walking away from the table with the governor, Daudt said. In fact, its the opposite. We hope to engage with the governor over the course of the next three days and get agreement on all of these bills.

But Dayton was still concerned, not just about the numbers but about hundreds of policy measures that were tucked into the last round of budget bills Republicans sent him.

I'm not going to swallow it, Dayton said of those proposals, which include measures to block local governments from setting their own wage and labor laws; a delay on implementing waterway-buffer rules, one of Daytons signature initiatives; and changes to the makeup of the Metropolitan Council, the metro-area regional planning agency.

The way we resolved the shutdown in 2011: we took all of the policy out of the budget bills, Dayton said Friday.

Republicans said they will reduce the number of policy measures in the bill, but added that there is always some policy in budget bills. Every bill always has policy, said Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka. As far as the ones that are more volatile we will communicate with him.

If legislators dont finish their work by midnight on Monday, Dayton can immediately call them back to a special session, or they can negotiate terms over the following days and weeks. But an agreement must be struck by June 30, the final day of the fiscal year, or state government heads into automatic shutdown.

Dayton has said an important part of his legacy is in adopting a fiscally responsible two-year budget, one that doesnt leave ballooning expenses in future budgeting years. During his first session in office, in 2011, lawmakers faced a $6 billion budget deficit.

If we have any kind of economic downturn we are right in the same boat, he said, and avoiding a similar situation is a very important part of what I want to leave for my successor.

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With no deal in sight, legislative Republicans decide to move budget bills without Dayton's sign-off - MinnPost

A boy listens to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally in the Lakawanna College Student Union November 7, 2016 in Scranton, Pennsylvania. (Chip Somodevilla--Getty Images)Chip SomodevillaGetty Images

Nearly a quarter of young people who identified as Republicans in 2015 now lean towards Democrats, according to a new study.

Overall, most people who identify with a certain party tend to maintain their political affiliation. But according to a Pew Research study about party loyalty, young Republicans are far more likely to switch parties than older Republicans or Democrats of any age. The researchers found that only about half of surveyed Republicans under 30 stayed steadfastly loyal to their party from 2015 on: 21% left the party but returned by March 2017, and 23% defected to the Democrats. That was significantly higher than the number of young Democrats who defected to the Republican side (9%) or the number of older Democrats who defected (14%.)

Overall, both Republicans and Democrats have only about a 10% defection rate. But between 2015 and 2017, the data suggests that Trump has been the main reason for defection in both directions. Among Republicans who have defected from the party, 57% said they strongly disapprove of Trump, among Democrats who have defected from their party, 32% strongly approve of Trump.

Overall, people who are less politically engaged are more likely to switch sides, and Democrats had a slight edge among those voters: 15% of less engaged Republicans became Democrats, while 12% of less engaged Democrats became Republicans.

The research was conducted by the American Trends Panel at the Pew Research Center, in a survey of 5,154 adults over two years.

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Nearly a Quarter of GOP Millennials Have Defected from the Party of Trump, Study Says - TIME

President Trump sees himself as harassed and abused. True enough. Presidents often feel oppressed. But Trump is protected and defended in a way that he appears to take for granted. It comes from having both houses of Congress controlled by his own party.

The political safety this provides is all he has known in the four months he's been in the White House. But it may not last. Republicans are in jeopardy of losing control of the House in next year's midterm election. If that occurs, Trump would be subjected to far more persecution than even he can imagine.

Should Democrats win a House majority, they would control the committees and what happensor doesn't happenon the House floor. They would have subpoena power. They would be free to investigate Trump on matters far beyond any possible ties he has to Russia. They would have the votes, if they stick together, to impeach the president.

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to capture the House, assuming they don't lose any of the districts they now hold. This isn't a huge reach, but it's harder than it looks. Democrats dreamed of a House takeover in the 2016 election. They gained six seats.

But they will have advantages in the 2018 election they didn't have last year. Some of these are normal in midterms. Others are related to Trump and the unusual coalition that elected him. The effect of both is to stack the deck against Republicans.

Midterm elections are referendums on the president and what he's done, especially in his first two years in office. And the verdict of voters can be harsh. Democrats lost 54 House seats in 1994 in Bill Clinton's first midterm and 63 in 2010 in Barack Obama's.

In 2002, voters rallied behind George W. Bush after the 9/11 attack. Republicans won eight House seats. That was the exception. The outcome in 2006 proved the rule. With the war in Iraq going poorly and Bush's approval rating in decline, Democrats gained 30 seats and control of the House.

There's also an ideological dimension to midterms. When a Democrat is president, voters tend to tilt slightly to the right. With a Republican president, they shift to the left. Pew Research has already found evidence of this in the aftermath of Trump's election.

In an April survey, 48 percent preferred a bigger government with more services while 45 percent favored a smaller government with fewer services. This was a substantial change from last September, when 50 percent wanted less government and fewer services and 41 percent preferred the opposite.

Another factor is enthusiasm. It's usually on the side of voters from the party that lost the White House two years earlier. Recall the Tea Party voters who led the GOP surge in the 2010 midterm.

For now, Democrats are ferociously opposed to Trump personally and to his presidency. Their fervor could fade in the 17 months between now and the 2018 electionbut probably not by much, because attacks on Trump, including calls for his impeachment, are likely to dominate Democratic campaigns.

A more subtle factor in 2018 is the role of the coalition that put Trump in the White House. He appealed to millions of working-class voters, many of them Democrats or independents or nonvoters in the past. He wouldn't have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin without them.

But it's unclear whether they are casual voters attracted solely to Trump. Will they will turn out for Republicans in a midterm election in which Trump isn't on the ballot?

Nationwide, the turnout is smaller in midterms (40 percent) than in presidential years (60 percent). And the midterm electorate tends to be more educated, according to Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. If that trend holds true next year, it suggests a chunk of the core Trump vote will be missing.

Democrats experienced this phenomenon both in the Obama years and in 2016. Many Obama voters in 2008 and 2012 didn't vote in the 2010 and 2014 midterms when he wasn't on the ballot. The result: Republicans prevailed. The same was true last year, leading to Hillary Clinton's defeat in critical states.

While concentrating on working-class states, Trump ignored states he had no chance of winning. "That was beneficial to Republicans in last year's general election," Kondik says. But it could backfire in congressional races in 2018 if GOP turnout suffers from last year's neglect in places like Orange County, California.

Neil Newhouse, who has polled House races for many years, says it's too early to make predictions so far ahead of November 2018. But "these midterms look precarious for Republicans," he told me.

He offers "two cautionary notes to those who want to say the reign of the GOP is over in the House." Says Newhouse, "the lion's share of the districts the Democrats need to pick up are uphill for Democratic candidates. And GOP fundraising has never been better."

Republican operatives with the National Republican Congressional Committee know how "to help candidates win elections and they will be fully engaged," he says. "Every GOP professional knows what's at stake in the '18 election."

Trump, while grousing last week about being treated "worse or more unfairly" than any politician in history, may be catching on. "You can't let them get you down," he told Coast Guard Academy graduates. "Adversity makes you stronger. Don't give in. Never back down. ... Nothing worth doing ever, ever, ever came easy." Nor will holding the House.

Fred Barnes is an executive editor at The Weekly Standard.

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Are Republicans Mid-Terminal? - The Weekly Standard

By BRIDGET BOWMAN and SIMONE PATH

No matter what he did or how much he tweeted during his first four months in office, President Donald Trump has mostly held on to the loyalty of congressional Republicans even those who might have the most to lose at the ballot box next year.

But that deference to the White House has begun to erode, slowly and unevenly, over the past week, with one vulnerable Republican congressman even dropping the word impeachment on national television.

The events of the past nine days including the firing of FBI Director James B. Comey, reports that Trump revealed classified information to Russian officials, and reports that Trump asked Comey to stop investigating his former national security advisers contacts with the Kremlin have rocked Capitol Hill.

Some of the pressure on GOP lawmakers to weigh in on an ongoing investigation into possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives was relievedWednesday evening when the Justice Department appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller as a special counsel to overseethe probe.

New York GOP Rep. Chris Collins, the first member of Congressto endorse Trump, said the pressure was off House Republicans to answer questions about the need for a special counsel.

The one positive development would be that we dont have to answer that question anymore, said Collins, a 2018 Democratic target.

And some Republicans, including Florida Rep. Brian Mast, who werent calling for a special counsel before, are now suddenly on board.

I don't know that much about him but it will be good to see what plays out with the special investigation, Mast said. But when pressed whether a special counsel was something that hed been supportive of before, Mast dodged.

I always call for transparency. I always say we should be transparency hawks, he said.

The recent turmoilstill hadsome vulnerable Republicans sharply criticizing the administration. Others wanted to wait and see if recent media reports weretrue before commenting but they may not have to wait very long.

Sen. Jeff Flake, a frequent Trump critic, refused to criticize his fellow Republicans for not being as vocal as he is. But, the Arizona Republican said, if the reports prove true, Republicans shouldnt be OKwith that.

Democrats are waiting to see whether the past week inspires a breaking point among Republicans who have generally stood by the White House. Delaware Sen. Chris Coons said he still had not seen many Republicans publicly weighing in on the controversies, but theywould likely face a moment of decision by the end of next week.

Coonspointed out that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will brief all senators on Thursday on Comeys firing. The Delaware lawmakeralso expects Congress to quickly gain access to any transcripts, memos or tapes of conversations pertaining to recent events.

Many Republicans today are calling for Comey to testify, the memos or transcripts or recordings to be given to Congress. Thats not an unreasonable position, Coons said. But once we have all of that, if it confirms the stories and reports to date, to, at that point, fail to act would be grossly irresponsible.

The past weeks events have already caused several vulnerable Republicans, especially those in districts carried byHillary Clintonlast fall,to speak out more forcefully against the Trump White House.

The most significant comments came from Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, who dropped the I-wordon TV on Tuesday. In fact, his spokeswomanhas tried to correct the record with reporters who have been identifying Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, a Freedom Caucus member, as the only Republican to have mentioned impeachment.

Congressman Curbelo was actually the first to mention impeachment, the spokeswoman emailed reporters Wednesday.

Clinton carriedCurbelos 26th District handily, and especially after his recent vote for the GOP leaderships health care legislation, Democrats are eager to take him out in 2018.

Another top Democratic target, Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, is often cautious about weighing in. But shes been more outspoken of late. She released a strongly worded statement Tuesday after reports that Trump had shared classified information with Russian officialsin which she referred to inexplicable stories coming from the White House.

In a statement in which she said she could not defend Comeys firing last week, Comstock called for an independent investigation that the American people can trust.

Comstock represents a northern Virginia swing district that Clinton carried by 10 pointsand is home to many federal workers. That sometimes requires her to buck her party (most recently, on the health care vote).

But Democrats immediately criticized her for not doing enough.

Barbara Comstock needs to do more than issue vague statements indicating she is troubled by the stories coming out of the White House, said state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, whos challenging Comstock in the 10th District. Wexton called on Comstock to sign the Democrats discharge petition to force a vote on creating an independent commission.

Other vulnerable Republicans have gonefurther, getting more specific in their calls for an independent investigation.

Prior to the Mueller announcement, Rep. Steve Knight, for example, on Tuesday called for a special prosecutor to take over the FBI investigation. The two-term member sits in a southern California district that Clinton won by nearly 7 points.

Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, the most vulnerable GOP senator up for re-election next year, has said over the past week that a independentprosecutor should be on the table if committees in the House and Senate cannot get to answers.

Colorado Rep. Mike Coffmantold The Denver Post last week that appointing a special counsel would help depoliticize the national conversation.

Other Republicans in Clinton districts, like Reps. Darrell Issaof California and Erik Paulsenof Minnesota, have called for an independent investigation in the wake of Comeys firing, but have been less clear about what form it should take.

After finding out about the Justice Department decisionWednesday, Minnesota Rep. Jason Lewis said that if DOJ thought that was the proper thing to do, then let DOJ do it.

But he also expressed some hesitation over multiple ongoing investigations, including in both the House and Senate, and the FBI.

We all want the truth to come out, we all want to go where the facts lead, but I hope we dont get into a situation of Its never good enough and this thing just drags and drags and politics gets in the way, Lewis said. Anything that gets the politics out of it, Im in favor of.

Other Republican members in tight races were still waiting to weigh in on whether a special counselor independent commission should lead the investigations, ahead of Wednesday evenings announcement.

These GOP lawmakers have to strike a delicate balance between courtingTrump voters, and combating Democratic criticism for not standing up to the administration.

Rep. Will Hurdsaid he supported the Oversight and Government Reform Committees push to obtain Comeys memos and testimony. The Texas Republican said the committees actions are important first steps to determine whether a special prosecutor is necessary. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates his race a Tossup.

Rep. John Katko similarly said he needed more information before making a decision about a special counselor independent commission.

I think you follow the facts and let the facts dictate the decision, the New York Republican said Tuesday. You cant make a decision based on emotions. Its got to be based on facts.

Katkos race is rated Likely Republican, and he is one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees targets in 2018. Clinton carriedhis district by 4 points.

Who knows what to believe, Katko said. This president has been under attack by the media. And its imperative, now more than ever, to make decisions based on the facts and nothing else.

Even as Republicans continue to face questions about the latest news, House Speaker Paul D. Ryan suggested he was not concerned about how the Russian investigations would affect members up for re-election.

I dont worry about things that are outside of my control, the Wisconsin Republican said when asked at a Wednesday morning press conference about the political effect.

Were going to keep advancing our reforms that we were elected to advance while we do all these other things that are within our responsibility, the speakersaid. And thats what well be judged in 2018.

But some GOP lawmakers are beginning to express fear that the daily drips of news on the Russian investigations slow the legislative agenda they hope to highlight in the midterms.

Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart told reporters that he wanted thorough investigations, but they needed to proceed quickly. Diaz-Balarts race is rated Solid Republican, but he is also a DCCC target, with Trump having carriedhis district by less than 2 points.

Clearly what could be [considered] now as just a distraction, could be an impediment to getting things done, he said.

Lindsey McPherson contributed to this report.

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White House Turmoil Ramps Pressure on Vulnerable Republicans - Roll Call

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Why Republicans Are Always Looking Over Their Shoulders New York Times The sudden appointment of Robert S. Mueller as a special counsel for the federal investigation into the Trump campaign's relationship with Russia highlights a key question: Which choice poses the greater risk for Republicans in Congress, to support a ... Young Republicans were the most likely to bail on their party over the past yearWashington Post Poll: More young Republicans left GOP during 2016 election than DemocratsThe Hill When Will Republicans Dump Trump?POLITICO Magazine AlterNet -Pew Research Center for the People and the Press all 102 news articles »

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Why Republicans Are Always Looking Over Their Shoulders - New York Times