Mediaboss Marketing

Since the election, surveys have consistently found that about 70 percent to 80 percent of Republicans dont buy the results. They dont agree that Joe Biden won fair and square. They say the election was rigged. And they say enough fraud occurred to tip the outcome.

Those numbers sound alarmingly high, and they imply that the overwhelming majority of people in one political party in America doubt the legitimacy of a presidential election. But the reality is more complicated, political scientists say. Research has shown that the answers that partisans (on the left as well as on the right) give to political questions often reflect not what they know as fact, but what they wish were true. Or what they think they should say.

Its incredibly hard to separate sincere belief from wishful thinking from what political scientists call partisan cheerleading. But on this topic especially, the distinctions matter a lot. Are Republican voters merely expressing support for the president by standing by his claims of fraud in effectively the same way Republicans in Congress have or have they accepted widespread fraud as true? Do these surveys suggest a real erosion in faith in American elections, or something more familiar, and temporary?

Its one thing to think that you dont trust the guys in Washington because theyre not your party, said Lonna Atkeson, a political scientist at the University of New Mexico. But its a whole other thing if you think, Well, gee, they didnt even get there legitimately.

She suggested, however, that these results be taken with something between alarm and skepticism.

Tracking surveys, which ask people the same questions over time on topics like the direction of the country or the economy, showed a lot of Republicans responding immediately after the election as if they believed the president had lost. Among Republicans, consumer confidence swiftly dropped, as did the share saying they thought the country was headed in the right direction.

Those results, which mirror past elections, suggest many Republicans knew Mr. Biden would become president. But they dont tell us much about whether Republicans believe he won fairly.

In one survey released today by YouGov and Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists who monitor the state of American democracy, 87 percent of Republicans accurately said that news media decision desks had declared Mr. Biden the winner of the election. That rules out the possibility that many Republicans simply arent aware of that fact.

Still, only about 20 percent of Republicans said they considered a Biden victory the true result. And 49 percent said they expected Mr. Trump to be inaugurated on Jan. 20 a belief thats unreasonably optimistic at this point, said Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth political scientist who is part of the research group. Digging deeper, he added, only about half of the group expecting Mr. Trump to be inaugurated also said he was the true winner. The other Republicans expressed instead some uncertainty about the outcome.

Theres a set of people who are true believers that Donald Trump won the election and is going to be inaugurated, but thats a relatively small set, he said. Theres also a small set of people who acknowledge Joe Biden won, but not nearly as many as you would hope.

And theres a lot of people who are at different degrees of acceptance in between.

In that group, political scientists say there are also people who give the equivalent of the party line answer to survey takers, regardless of their real beliefs.

The evidence is strong that a number of people out there, even if they know the truth, will give a cheerleading answer, said Seth Hill, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. Part of the presidents base appears eager to stick it to the establishment, he said. If those voters interpret surveys about the elections legitimacy as part of that establishment, he said, its quite possible they will use this as another vehicle to express that sentiment.

For other voters, what they sincerely believe and what they want to be true may well be the same thing. And politics can be inseparable from that reasoning.

Research has shown that supporters of the winning candidate in an election consistently have more faith that the election was fair than supporters of the losing candidate do. This pattern is true of both Democrats and Republicans. And when the parties fortunes flip in subsequent elections, peoples answers flip, too.

Even if the magnitudes are bigger now, this tendency to respond in this way has just been with American politics since weve been asking about it, said Michael Sances, a professor at Temple University.

A series of surveys by Morning Consult even suggests that Mr. Bidens win in the election caused Democrats to revise their beliefs about the fairness of past elections. Respondents were asked before the November election if they believed presidential contests going back to 1992 were free and fair. In most of these years, about 65 percent to 70 percent of all registered voters said yes.

But when people were asked these questions again after this years election, Democratic faith in the 2016 election jumped 22 percentage points. It jumped 11 points for the 2000 election.

And so we may not have to wait too long for a clearer answer to whether Republicans have truly lost faith in elections. If their candidates win both Senate runoff races in Georgia in January, a contest with outsize national importance, perhaps Republicans across the country will decide that elections are fair after all.

One interpretation of this pattern is that our regularly alternating election outcomes mean that no one side gets wedded for too long to the idea that the whole enterprise is broken.

But all of these researchers emphasized that there was something new this year: One candidate in this election, the sitting president, has refused to concede and is himself working to undermine the results.

In 2000, people had the sense that there was an unfairness in the process that had to do with technology; it wasnt driven by partisan politics, said Betsy Sinclair, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis. And there was a sense that we could fix that problem, she said, with updated voting machines and new legislation.

The dispiriting thing for political scientists looking at 2020 is this isnt a technical problem, she said. There isnt an engineering solution. This is a much more complicated problem that has to do with the incentives of elites to stoke anger in the American population. Thats not something we can solve by coming up with a different ballot casting process.

It will take more time, she said, before we know if the presidents messages will leave a lasting impression on Republicans. Its clear that they have had an effect in the immediate term. One recent experiment found that among Mr. Trumps supporters, people shown Twitter messages by the president attacking democratic norms lost confidence in elections.

In another recent survey experiment conducted by Brian Schaffner, Alexandra Haver and Brendan Hartnett at Tufts, supporters of Mr. Trump were asked shortly before Election Day how they would want him to respond if he lost, depending on the degree of the loss: if they would want him to concede and commit to a peaceful transfer or power, or resist the results and use any means to remain in office.

About 40 percent wanted him to take the latter option if he lost in the Electoral College and lost the national popular vote by only a percentage point or two. But roughly the same share wanted the president to contest the election even if he lost the popular vote by 10 to 12 points. That suggests, Mr. Schaffner said, that a significant share of the presidents supporters dont necessarily believe the election was fraudulent. Rather, they were prepared to support the presidents contesting of the election no matter what.

Other evidence shows that Republicans actually felt fairly good about how their votes were handled this year. In a large Pew survey, 72 percent of Trump voters said they were confident their vote was accurately counted. And 93 percent said voting was easy for them. That paints a different picture of how these voters view the electoral process that played out closest to them, even as many said elections this year werent run well nationally.

Voters have often said in surveys that they have more confidence in elections in their community or state than they do in voting across the country. That may be a useful insight for this moment, too: It means that the presidents sweeping claims about election fraud wont necessarily dissuade Republicans in Georgia in January. They probably have more faith in their local election workers and precinct offices than these surveys suggest they have for the country.

Continue reading here:
Most Republicans Say They Doubt the Election. How Many Really Mean It? - The New York Times

Get federal, state and suburban county executive races here.

The Republican slate for Joliet Township government offices was determined at the party's caucus to appear on the ballot on the April 6 municipal election.

The Joliet Township Republican Organization announced its slate of candidates after its caucus on Tuesday, according to a news release. The partisan process for township government is different from a traditional primary election in that voters need to physically gather in one space and vote for their candidates of choice.

Diane Harris is the party's nominee for township supervisor. She ran for Joliet City Council in 2017.

John Lawson won the Republican nomination for township highway commissioner. The trustee nominees are Jason King, Tim Hendricks, Jan Nahorski and Mike Carruthers.

All GOP township positions were open for nomination and the slate won unanimously.

Harris said her slate is focused on arguing for "ethics and transparency" in government, especially in light of last year's allegations against the sitting township supervisor of misusing government funds and workers.

"The people deserve better," she said.

Many of the incumbent Democrats in township government, including the supervisor, were ousted in that party's caucus.

Read the original here:
Joliet Township Republicans nominate their candidates for 2021 election - The Herald-News

I got a sore neck from reading Ann Wombles piece in the Nov. 29 Sunday LNP | LancasterOnline (Reflections from a former Republican on the fact-free GOP).

My head went alternately up and down in accord and then left and right in sharp disagreement with her opinions. We are completely aligned in her view of Donald Trumps presidency. His moral character is deplorable. He repeatedly violates the most basic standards of civility and compassion. He shows no shame in putting his personal political interests ahead of Americas. He was a poor manager of the White House, by every measure. He eroded valuable foreign alliances forged over the decades.

I also joined her and so many Republicans in their dismay as he took over the voice and the structure of the national GOP. With the exception of appointments to the federal bench, the national party of Trump abandoned the spirit of Abraham Lincoln and the mainstream conservatism of Ronald Reagan and both Presidents Bush. That compassionate conservatism has shown over the decades to be of immense appeal to Americans.

Womble asserted that the Republican Party had become unmoored from its founding tenets in the name of winning by any means necessary; it became nothing more than a slavish and cowardly cult of personality.

She goes too far and she does not go far enough. Her blanket condemnation of all Republicans on the national level is unfair and inaccurate. Further, the beating heart of the party is in state and local governance. There is much to admire at those levels.

Look at Lancaster County. In more than a century and a half of actual practice, this county has been governed by Republicans. Not perfectly not without a few officeholders who were below-average in their jobs but, by and large, by competent public servants who went about their jobs with diligence and character.

The local Republican Partys contribution to good government has been twofold. First, it insists that anyone who would run for or retain office demonstrate competence and character. This is applied in a screening and vetting process, carried out by more than 300 GOP committee men and women, who meet with those who seek office and the partys endorsement. Some good people have run and won without that endorsement. But those people, too, have been held to the same level of scrutiny in election campaigns as the endorsed candidates.

The second contribution to good government is the actual heritage of the Republican Partys remarkable record. Voters know of the long history of high standards for the partys leaders. Even if they do not know the candidates, they can lean on the long experience of good people doing a good job in government when choosing to support the GOP candidates. They trust the GOP brand.

Finally, good government leads to an enhanced quality of social and economic life in Lancaster County. To govern is to choose, and GOP officeholders have generally made good choices in their jobs. Those choices started with the premise that they are there to serve the balanced best interests of the people of the county people of all interests, personal identities and political persuasions.

It isnt just fiscal restraint, improvement of infrastructure, support of agriculture and public services and managing growth, important as those are. It is more basic. It is an attitude of servant leadership, rare in our nation today, but prevalent in Republicans who hold office here. It is also ingrained in the fine men and women whom voters have sent to represent us in the Pennsylvania Legislature and indeed in Congressman Lloyd Smucker, who does not get enough credit for the everyday service he and his office quietly and consistently provide to meet the specific needs of his constituents.

Womble concludes eloquently with the hope that we see a new political center arise. Yes, but not with the fanciful notion of a new political movement.

Bidding farewell to Trump opens the doors for new dynamic Republican leadership at the national level. The center is there in the hearts and minds of the American people, including tens of millions of Democrats. Republicans offer the best opportunity to seek that center and serve it at every level. The GOP has not lost its way. We can trust it in the long run.

Bill Adams is a retired business executive and community volunteer. He resides in West Lampeter Township.

Success! An email has been sent with a link to confirm list signup.

Error! There was an error processing your request.

See the rest here:
The Republican Party still can be trusted in Lancaster County [column] - LancasterOnline

If the last two years of the Obama administration were any indication, theyll freeze them out, Durbin said. Hope springs eternal but I believe in history.

Biden, who chaired the Judiciary Committee from 1987 to 1995, will be confronting an institution thats only become more partisan since he left it, especially when it comes to the courts. Last month, Amy Coney Barrett became the first Supreme Court justice in 151 years not to receive a single vote from the minority party.

Even though most Republicans still wont recognize that Biden is the president-elect, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee next year, said that he would of course consider Biden's judicial nominees. If Republicans keep the Senate, they'll be in the unusual position of vetting and pushing through the minority party's nominations. President George H.W. Bush was the last president to take power without his party in control of the Senate, though Republicans only held the Senate for a few months during the beginning of his sons presidency.

Members of both parties acknowledge that with a divided government, Bidens nominees will need to be a compromise, like everything else.

If we keep the Senate, then itll be a negotiation, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee and McConnell ally. Perhaps [Biden] will welcome the fact that the most radical nominees will not be confirmed by a Republican majority. That well actually have to negotiate and come up with something thats agreeable to both sides.

Your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.

But negotiation could prove challenging, particularly given McConnells affinity for filling the courts with conservative judges and the hard line some Senate Republicans have already taken on judicial nominees, even with a Republican president.

I imagine theyll have a tough time just because Im not going to vote for people who I think are, to use my words, judicial imperialists, said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), whose opposition helped sink Trumps nominee to the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. But maybe hell surprise me if [Biden] is indeed the president, who knows, maybe hell send up nominees who are constitutionalists and textualists. I kind of doubt it.

In addition to a possible Republican Senate, Biden will take office with far fewer vacancies than Trump, who entered the White House with 112 vacancies, including a Supreme Court seat, 86 district court seats and 17 circuit court seats. Obama, by contrast, had 53 vacancies. Since Trumps inauguration, the Senate has confirmed well over 200 judges, including three Supreme Court justices.

There are currently 59 vacancies to the federal judiciary, with 36 nominees pending including one appellate court nominee and 27 district court nominees. Senate Republicans are planning to continue confirming judges throughout the lame duck session.

The good news is that weve done a good job and were not done as you know filling the vacancies that there are on the appellate courts to minimize the opportunity for more liberals on it, said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

In this image from video, the vote total in the U.S. Senate on the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to become a Supreme Court justice is seen Oct. 26, 2020. | Senate Television via AP

Even though Republicans have maintained a relentless focus on judges, vacancies during the Biden presidency will inevitably arise. And he may even see a Supreme Court retirement. Justice Stephen Breyer, nominated by former President Bill Clinton, is 82. Some judges have also delayed retirement, with the hope of a Democratic president taking office. The question will be whether Republicans allow Biden to replace them.

Theres vacancies that you can predict because of age, but then theres all these others, said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). Hell have a number of opportunities Im sure ... maybe not immediately just because vacancies have been filled, but over the course of four years I think hell have quite a few.

Both Democratic and Republican senators suggested that Biden may have an easier time filling vacancies for district court nominees because of the so-called blue slip process, under which a home state senator has input over whether the Judiciary Committee considers a judicial nominee. Republicans scrapped blue slips for appellate court nominees a heated point of contention with Democrats but have kept them for lower court picks.

A Republican Senate also takes the prospect of court reform off the table. Democrats are still seething over McConnells blocking of Obamas Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland in 2016 as well as the rushed Barrett confirmation, and some on the left have called for adding seats to the high court. Biden stayed away from court packing during his campaign and instead proposed a bipartisan commission to review court reform proposals. But with the GOP in control, Bidens only prospect for impact on the courts would likely be who he nominates to the federal bench.

The president-elects allies are hoping that Bidens longstanding relationship with McConnell and Senate Republicans will translate to his nominees getting confirmed, though McConnell has yet to even acknowledge that Biden won the White House.

Joe Biden ran for president on bringing us together and making the Congress work again as one of his core priorities, said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a Biden confidant. If anyone can sit down and work out with [McConnell] ... a way to come to an agreement that we will move nominees, its President-elect Biden. I have lived through years and years of McConnells obstruction. I know this will be a challenging task.

Bidens presidency will ultimately serve as a test for whether both parties can move past the brutal battles over the nominations of Garland, Barrett and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, as well as the partisan finger-pointing over Senate rules changes. Republicans often highlight that Democrats lowered the 60-vote threshold for confirming lower court judges in 2013. But Democrats are quick to counter that it was McConnell who gutted the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees in 2017.

Some Democrats are trying to keep an open mind about the possibility of divided government and are reluctant to predict how their Republican colleagues may act next year.

I know how Mitch McConnell approached Obamas nominees which was not a very hospitable approach, said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). I can certainly try to predict McConnells future behavior by past behavior but hope springs eternal. I would hope that we dont end up in a place where McConnell is trying to keep vacancies open for 2025."

Burgess Everett contributed to this report.

Read this article:
Theyll freeze them out: Democrats fear Senate Republicans will block Bidens judges - POLITICO

A fight is brewing over President-elect Joe BidenJoe BidenTrump floats a Doug Collins run against Kemp for Georgia governor Defiant Trump insists election was 'rigged' at rally for Georgia Senate Republicans Biden victory, vaccine and an anniversary: good karma for the Mediterranean? MOREs Cabinet picks, in one of the first faceoffs between the long-time dealmaker and Senate Republicans.

Tensions are building on various fronts, from complaints that Bidens team isnt coordinating with Senate Republicans to warnings that he should expect a slower pace of confirmation after years-long frustrations from GOP senators about the treatment of President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump floats a Doug Collins run against Kemp for Georgia governor Defiant Trump insists election was 'rigged' at rally for Georgia Senate Republicans Trump offers condolences to family, friends of Loeffler campaign staffer who died MOREs nominees.

Biden will need GOP buy-in to ensure confirmation of his picks unless Democrats sweep the two Georgia runoff elections next month.

I really am a little surprised ... that there hadnt been at least some consultation. I mean, some of these problems can be avoided and people, you know, saved from the embarrassment if there would simply be some consultation on who theyre thinking about, said Sen. John CornynJohn CornynSenate GOP brushes off long-shot attempt to fight Biden win Why the polls weren't as wrong as you think Lawmakers pressure leaders to reach COVID-19 relief deal MORE (R-Texas), an adviser to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellCongress eyes 1-week stopgap, longer session to reach deal State, local officials plead for vaccine distribution funds On The Money: Unemployment gains lower than expected | Jobs report lights fire under coronavirus relief talks MORE (R-Ky.).

Asked about consulting with Republicans, Sen. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill's 12:30 Report Presented by Capital One Pressure builds as UK approves COVID-19 vaccine Republican frustration builds over Cabinet picks Republicans ready to become deficithawks again under a President Biden MORE (R-N.D.) said, Unless youre putting all your eggs in the Were going to win them both in Georgia basket, that would be a wise thing to do.

Sen. Mike RoundsMike RoundsHillicon Valley: Government used Patriot Act to gather website visitor logs in 2019 | Defense bill leaves out Section 230 repeal, includes White House cyber czar position | Officials warn hackers are targeting vaccine supply chain Defense policy bill would create new cyber czar position Trump doubles down on Section 230 repeal after GOP pushback MORE (R-S.D.) added that while there was still time for Biden to do outreach, he should keep in mind the views of Republicans who will be wary of anything that will obliterate work done under the Trump administration.

As Biden is attempting to lay out people that he thinks should be part of his Cabinet, we hope that he takes that into consideration, Rounds said.

McConnell still hasnt directly acknowledged Biden as the president-elect, and the former vice president disclosed on Tuesday that he hadnt spoken with the Senate GOP leader following the election. The two have a decades-long relationship and served together in the Senate, but any overtures between them have been on ice since Nov. 3.

Cornyn predicted Republicans would be open to reasonable nominees. But, he added, the onus was on Bidens team to reach out to McConnell.

Nominations, once largely drama-free, have emerged as lightning rods in the Senate. Democrats changed the rules in 2013 to allow all executive branch picks, and most judicial nominees, to get confirmed with a simple majority. And under a rules change in 2019 by Senate Republicans, most nominations now only require two hours of debate after overcoming a procedural hurdle on the floor, though most Cabinet picks could still face up to 30 hours of additional debate.

Republicans were frustrated in 2017 when Democrats agreed to let just two of Trumps Cabinet picks be confirmed on the first day of his administration, compared to six for then-President Obama and seven for then-President George W. Bush. By Feb. 10, Trump had seven confirmed nominees compared to Obamas 12 and Bushs 14, which was his entire Cabinet.

Democrats are ramping up pressure to quickly confirm Bidens Cabinet picks, including holding hearings before Inauguration Day.

Republican senators often argued that a president deserves broad deference when it comes to their Cabinet and official appointments and blew past controversies that would in almost any other time be disqualifying. President-elect Bidens nominees, of course, are in a different universe, Schumer said.

Well, were already starting to see the switch flip now that President-elect Biden is naming the names, Schumer added.

But Republicans, pointing back to 2017, warn that Democrats should expect delays in getting at least some of Bidens picks through the Senate if they keep control of the majority after the Jan. 5 runoffs.

I dont think theres going to be a great big hurry to confirm a whole lot of individuals right away. ... Its an advice and consenttype issue with the Senate, particularly when youre from different parties, Rounds said.

Cramer said that when it comes to nominations, Democrats have made this bed. They may end up sleeping in it.

If we have the majority ... any one of us can put a hold on somebody. And if we honor that, thats a pretty big problem for him, Cramer said.

Battle lines are already being drawn on key picks like Neera Tanden for director of the Office of Management and Budget and Antony Blinken for secretary of State. Biden has yet to name his picks for more politically controversial agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Cornyn called Tanden radioactive. Sens. Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanWaPo reporter says GOP has less incentive to go big on COVID-19 relief Republican frustration builds over Cabinet picks Senators call for passage of bill to cement alcohol excise tax relief MORE (R-Ohio) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamWhy the polls weren't as wrong as you think Graham reports 'record-breaking' 9M haul during 2020 campaign Lawmakers pressure leaders to reach COVID-19 relief deal MORE (R-S.C.), who will oversee the two committees with joint oversight of Tandens nomination, havent committed to giving her a confirmation hearing.

Blinken, a longtime member of the foreign policy establishment, is coming under scrutiny because of his role at WestExec Advisors, a consultancy firm whose clients remain opaque. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch (R-Idaho) has brushed off questions from reporters this week about Blinken and about Bidens other national security picks.

Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonWatch live: Senate panel holds Russia investigation hearing Republican frustration builds over Cabinet picks Grassley returns to Capitol after having coronavirus MORE (R-Wis.) wanted to talk to Blinken as part of his investigation into the Bidens an issue he hinted could come up during Blinkens confirmation process unless he agrees to an interview with Johnsons Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee staff beforehand.

Johnson also didnt rule out that he could keep trying to speak with Blinken as part of the probe even if hes confirmed as secretary of State. Though Johnson is handing over the committee gavel, hes expected to be chairman of the panels Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

Its probably important for him to sit down and talk to us now. Hes got some answers that he needs to provide us with, Johnson said, adding that hes not really happy with Blinken.

Even as some GOP senators are sending warning signs over the looming confirmation fights, several have said that as long as Bidens picks are within the mainstream, Republicans would help confirm them.

Graham said he thought there would be a willingness by a lot of us to help confirm Cabinet picks for individuals who are competent, qualified, not over the top.

Pressed if he thought any of his GOP colleagues would use the rules to drag out or delay Bidens picks, Graham demurred, adding: Time will tell.

See more here:
Republican frustration builds over Cabinet picks | TheHill - The Hill