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When it comes to Californias 53 congressional districts, first impressions are deceiving. Republicans have held tightly to their seats in the House of Representatives, but the latest data beg the question of whether the partys grip could be loosening.

Fourteen congressional districts are represented by Republicans. But in none do they comprise a majority of voters. Their highest concentration, nestled in the Sierra foothills district of Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove), is slightly less than 44%.

That Republicans arent dominant in congressional districts isnt exactly breaking news. Arnold Schwarzenegger was in his first term as governor the last time any California district broke the 50% mark in Republican registration. But last months state registration report reveals an accelerated erosion of GOP strength.

There are a number of Republican incumbents who are sitting on ticking time bombs, said Eric McGhee, a researcher at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

Democrats, too, hold a number of congressional seats with only a plurality of party voters. But elsewhere, they have commanding majorities in some districts, four or five times the number of Republicans.

The GOPs statewide brand was once lustrous enough to carry six straight presidential elections, from 1968 to 1988. Compare that with last November, when President Trump lost half of the Republican congressional districts. In eight of the nominally Republican districts, Democratic voter registration has risen since 2013. How many of those saw an uptick in Republicans? Zero.

Two Republican pluralities have shrunk more than others in the last four years: those in districts represented by Reps. Steve Knight (R-Palmdale) and Mimi Walters (R-Irvine).

Theres a long-term trend for Republican registration to be sagging, McGhee said. The reason, as he and other researchers have found, is that young Californians coming into the political mainstream are registering either as Democrats or as unaffiliated no party preference voters. While some still occasionally choose GOP candidates, voters from days gone by the ones being replaced were reliable and registered as Republicans.

Political Road Map: The California Republican brand has become radioactive

That replacement process is just inexorably driving Republican numbers down, McGhee said. And its not clear where the bottom is.

The data explain why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has set up shop in Southern California in hopes of knocking off a few GOP incumbents in 2018. But its no sure thing. In 2016, 97% of House members seeking reelection won, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The fact that incumbents rarely lose has probably helped mask the thinning of the Republican base.

Others think Democratic candidates in congressional battleground races havent resonated with voters. Eric Bauman, chairman of the L.A. County Democratic Party, said during a Bay Area event last week that national party leaders pick candidates and have been carpetbagging them in to districts where we have perfectly good candidates of our own.

Still, the Republican wall could crumble in the next round of political map drawing. In 2001, a bipartisan closed-door agreement gave 19 House seats to the GOP, a gerrymandering that sparked the creation of an independent redistricting commission. When the commission ignored political party registration in 2011, Republicans lost five House seats. The commission will again draw districts after the 2020 census. If demographics truly are destiny, the Grand Old Party has work to do. And fast.

john.myers@latimes.com

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Updates on California politics

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Political Road Map: There's not a single California congressional district with Republicans in the majority - Los Angeles Times

Republicans have all but erased Democrats lead in early voting for the hotly contested special in Georgias 6th congressional district.

There were roughly the same number of Republicans and Democrats who voted when early voting ended on Friday, according to New York Times election expert Nate Cohn.

Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida, came up with similar figures.

The virtually even turnout among Democrats and Republicans in the district is a major change from the first week of early voting, in which Democrats enjoyed a significant lead.

The makeup of the early voting electorate is a notoriously flawed predictor of general election outcomes. For one thing, Democrats tend to turn out in higher numbers to vote early than on Election Day.

And the lack of party registration in Georgia makes tea-leaf reading that much harder. To identify partisans, Cohn and McDonald looked at the last party primary that each of the voters participated in, which may not reflect a consistent party affiliation.

Joe Raedle/Getty Images

On its face, however, the surge in Republican early voting is an ominous sign for Democrats. The partys leading candidate, 30-year-old documentary filmmaker Jon Ossoff is hoping to walk away with the majority he needs to win outright in the first round of voting this Tuesday, where he is up against multiple candidates from both parties.

If Ossoff fails to receive 50 percent, he will head to a June 20 runoff, where he will likely face a steeper climb in a head-to-head battle with a Republican.Ossoff currently has the support of 47 percent of the districts voters, according to a Revily poll conducted from March 10 to 12.

Nate Cohn, nonetheless, highlighted some early voting trends that look favorable for Ossoff. Infrequent voters, who Ossoff needs to turn out, are voting at roughly the rates they would in higher-turnout midterm elections.

And former Democratic presidential candidateHillary Clinton would have received 57 percent of the districts vote if the general electorate in November had been composed of those who voted early in the special election, according to Cohn.

The national Democratic Party and liberal grassroots groups have poured massive resources and energy into Ossoffs bid. Even Hollywood stars are chipping in, with Samuel L. Jackson taping a radio advertisement aimed at turning out black voters.

Democrats are hoping the Atlanta-area special election will showcase their ability to translate popular backlash to President Donald Trump into victory at the ballot box.

The congressional seat became available when Trump tapped Tom Price to become Secretary of Health and Human Services. While Price won reelection in the district by 23 points in November, Trump won it by just 1.5 points.

Read more:
Republicans Catch Up In Georgia Special Election Early Voting - Huffington Post

Senior Senate GOP officials have grown concerned that Rep. Kevin Cramer's penchant for controversial remarks could damage their chances at one of the party's most prized opportunities to pickup the crucial seat occupied by Heitkamp, a rare Democratic statewide officeholder in the conservative state. Cramer's latest remark: Defending Sean Spicer this week in the aftermath of the White House spokesman's widely condemned comments about Adolf Hitler and the Holocaust.

Behind the scenes, there's a growing GOP push to woo a wealthy North Dakota state senator, Tom Campbell, who has the resources to largely self-fund a campaign against Heitkamp, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

Campbell is taking a series of steps to mount a challenge, putting together an organization with the resources that will let him run for a statewide office next year, according to Chip Englander, a political adviser to the state senator. Campbell "definitely" will run for either the House seat now occupied by Cramer or for the Senate seat next year, Englander said.

"He can even the score on Day 1," Englander said, suggesting Campbell could drop roughly $2 million into the campaign to immediately eliminate Heitkamp's financial advantage. He said Campbell would raise some money also if he mounts a run.

A final decision could come within a matter of weeks.

"On paper, it looks like he could win, but he also appears to have a few Akin-like tendencies that make a lot of people nervous," said one Senate GOP campaign veteran, who, like other top Republicans, asked for anonymity to assess the field candidly.

In an interview, Cramer pushed back, saying Washington Republicans don't understand his state, noting that he has held more than 400 town hall meetings since 2013 and won his statewide race with 69% of the vote last year. He said had Heitkamp's 2012 opponent, Rick Berg, relied on North Dakota consultants rather than Washington experts, "he'd be a United States senator today."

"This is what the people in the swamp think: We can't have this overexposed guy who has 100% name ID and says things that are on his mind," Cramer, an early support of President Donald Trump, told CNN. "What they don't calculate is how very much appreciated that is in places like North Dakota."

Cramer said he is still undecided on if he'll run for the Senate, saying a decision would come in a matter of months. But Cramer, who met with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell about a possible run in December, said "not at all" when asked if Cambell's prospective candidacy would dissuade him from running for Heitkamp's seat.

Cramer got national attention this week when he said that there was some "validity" to Spicer's comments that Hitler did not use chemical weapons in World War II. While Spicer apologized for his remarks, Cramer said it was a "factual" statement that Hitler didn't use chemical weapons on the "battlefield" similar to what's happened in Syria.

"I can't even believe that anybody in the media, much less all of the major networks, led with this story," Cramer said earlier this week. "A spokesperson, who by the way made a poor illustration, but it's not completely, it's not without some validity."

Cramer has made other controversial remarks in the past, including after Democratic women wore white to highlight the women's suffrage movement during Trump's speech to Congress earlier this year. Cramer called them "poorly dressed" with "bad-looking white pantsuits."

On Friday, Cramer told CNN that the media "overblew" his comments on Spicer and said Republicans in Washington get caught up in the media frenzy, which he said is dismissed by voters back home.

"I know how North Dakotans think," Cramer said.

Read more from the original source:
Nervous about GOP congressman, Republicans woo new North Dakota Senate candidate - CNN

Sacramento Bee

Which California legislative Republicans represent pro-Clinton districts? Sacramento Bee Newly installed Senate Republican Leader Patricia Bates has three GOP-held swing seats to defend next year. The Laguna Niguel lawmaker also may want to keep an eye on her own race. Bates and 16 other legislative Republicans represent districts where ...

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Which California legislative Republicans represent pro-Clinton districts? - Sacramento Bee

Some influential Republicans in Congress dont want a fight President Trump is threatening to pick over extra Obamacare payments to insurers.

Trump suggested this week that as Congress seeks to fund the government beyond April, Republicans should refuse to pay for cost-sharing subsidies provided through the Affordable Care Act to low-income Americans. Theres widespread agreement that without the subsidies, insurers would be forced to hike premiums next year, worsening conditions in the Obamacare insurance marketplaces.

The president told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday that not only would such a move cause Obamacare to die, it could also be used to force Democrats to negotiate on repealing the health-care law altogether. Without the payments, Obamacare is gone, just gone, Trump said.

[Trumps threat prompts Democrats to play hardball over Obamacare payments]

Many Republicans are well aware that the public is likely to blame them for premium increases, now that they control both Congress and the White House and have so far failed to agree on a health-care replacement plan. And Democrats are keenly aware of the shifting dynamics, seizing every opportunity they can to insist Republicans now own the health-care law.

The Democratic leadership in Congress says it will hold up the government funding bill that expires on April 28 in order to secure the payments if Trump decides to withhold them. But Republicans are unlikely to want to shut down the government or for Trump to withhold the payments in the first place.

I dont think Democrats will let this happen, but I frankly dont think the Republicans want it to happen either, said Timothy Jost, a health-law professor at Washington and Lee University.

Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), who, as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, helped craft the GOP health-care plan, told constituents this week that the subsidies need to be funded, period.

It was a commitment made by the government to the insurers and the people, Walden said Wednesday at a town hall in his district. That needs to happen.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who chairs the powerful Appropriations subcommittee with jurisdiction over health care, has also said its important to fund the payments for insurers, although he stressed its a decision that the House leadership would have to make.

Its probably the right thing to do, I think, Cole told The Washington Post last month. Otherwise youre going to have insurance companies exiting the market.

Other top Republicans are remaining quiet about how to handle the subsidies, letting the White House lead the way. Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) isnt taking a position. A Brady spokeswoman said Friday that the congressman believes the administration is taking important steps to stabilize Obamacares collapsing marketplace.

(Peter Stevenson/The Washington Post)

The Trump administration must decide whether it will continue pursuing a GOP lawsuit to block the subsidies. The House sued the Obama administration for awarding the subsidies without a clear congressional appropriation and won in federal court last year. The Obama administration appealed the decision.

Now the GOP has the White House on its side and a new concern that Republicans will bear the public blame for problems with Obamacare. Trumps victory created a tricky new situation that House Republicans surely didnt envision when they filed the lawsuit, said Bill Pierce, a health policy expert at APCO Worldwide.

It is a situation entirely of their own doing, Pierce said.

Republicans have said they were fighting the awarding of insurer payments without permission from Congress not the subsidies themselves. House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) hasnt said whether he wants to fund the subsidies in a spending bill later this month, and his office didnt respond Friday to a query about the issue.

We believe in Congress retaining its lawmaking power, but this lawsuit hasnt run its course, Ryan said late last month. While the lawsuit is running its course, the administration is exercising their discretion with respect to the [cost-sharing reductions].

The health-care law requires marketplace insurers to discount extra insurance costs beyond the monthly premium such as deductibles and co-payments for people earning less than 250 percent of the poverty level. Without federal payments to cover those discounts, its estimated that insurers would hike premiums by an average of 19 percent.

That reality is leading lawmakers such as Walden and Cole to back the subsidies, even if they want to get rid of the underlying law. The cost-sharing reductions would cost an estimated $7billion or $8billion in the next year, but with that cost already built in, Congress wouldnt have to come up with extra money to fund them.

If Trump pushes for withholding the payments, it could fuel a clash between these lawmakers and conservatives who want to damage Obamacare in any way they can.

Im not alone in my party in [wanting to fund the cost-sharing reductions], but there are a lot in my party that dont think that, Walden said.

Insurers are watching the situation with trepidation, with rapidly approaching deadlines for announcing whether they will continue selling plans on the insurance marketplaces next year. Kristine Grow, a spokeswoman for the trade association Americas Health Insurance Plans, said more plans will likely exit without the cost-sharing reductions.

A lot of plans are very likely to drop out of the market because of continued instability, Grow said.

Read more at PowerPost

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Republicans may not want Trump to end Obamacare payments - Washington Post