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Here's a brewing irony for Senate Republicans: If they have a near-perfect run in 2018 races, they could get close to the coveted filibuster-proof majority of 60 out of 100 seats.

There are 10 Senate Democrats running for reelection in states President Trump won, while Republicans, who currently have a 52-seat majority, only have one or two vulnerable candidates.

But Republicans have struggled to recruit top candidates in these Trump states. Alack of a clear leader is leading to a bunch of lower-tier candidates jumping into the race, which means Republicans could spend the next year in potentially expensive (and, in some cases, divisive) primaries in some key states.

This isn't the end of the world, but it's not a perfect start for a perfect run for Republicans.

It's a trend we noticed in April that is still going on today, with news that Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) will not challenge one of the Democrats' most vulnerable senators up for reelection in 2018, Claire McCaskill (Mo.).

A similar dynamic is playing out in these Trump states where Senate Democrats are trying towin reelection next year, such as:

In Wisconsin, Rep. Sean P. Duffy (R) decided not to run to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). There are at least six possible GOP candidates who could try to challenge Baldwin.

[Wisconsin Republicans put Trump over the top. Now they're trying to prove it wasn't a fluke.]

In Indiana, Rep. Susan Brooks (R) decided not to run against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D), possibly the most vulnerable Senate Democrat. Her colleagues, GOP Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita, do look like they'll run, and they've already started attacking each otherin pretty dramatic ways, like accusing the other of planting negative storiesor making unhinged comments.

In Pennsylvania, Rep. Patrick Meehan (R) decided not to run against two-term Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D). Now there are at least four Republicans who have launched campaigns, from state representatives to a real estate developer and an energy executive. Pennsylvania Republicans tell National Journal they'd feel better about the race if either U.S. Reps. Lou Barletta or Mike Kelly decided to run. (Both have said they're thinking about it.)

In West Virginia, a state Trump won by more than 40 (!) points, U.S. GOP Rep. Evan Jenkins is running to try to unseat Sen. Joe Manchin III (D). But a super PAC recently jumped into the race in favor of likely GOP candidate Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and attacked Jenkins as a Manchin mini me.

In Ohio, state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) is the leading candidate to challenge two-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). But a wealthy investment banker and GOP donordecided to run, too.

And Montana Republicans lost their top recruit, Ryan Zinke, after Trump picked him to be his interior secretary. Attorney General Tim Fox (R) also said no thanks to challenging two-term Sen. Jon Tester (D), which has left the state auditor as the biggest name among half a dozen potential candidates.

Finally, in North Dakota, Republicans don't have a candidate yet to challenge Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), another state Trump won by double digits (20 points).

Basically, Democratic operatives point out, there are Republican primaries in nearly every competitive Senate race right now.

What's going on here? A few things:

In many of these states, if the Democrat could be unseated, it's possible Republicans could hold the seat for a long time. And the more likely your party is to win a race, the more likely on-the-fence candidates are to jump in.

But that doesn't explain why some top recruits in these states said no. Everyone has different reasons (Duffy in Wisconsin has eight kids, Zinke in Montana took a Cabinet appointment instead). But if any of these races were an easy win, you'd think more experienced politicians would say yes to getting in.

That more haven't suggests:

1) It's not going to be as easy as the numbers suggest to take down some of these Senate Democrats, many of whom won tough races in 2012 in red-leaning states and have been in office for almost a dozen years.

2) There could be a Trump factor weighing heavily against Republicans' calculations. History tells us the party in power generally loses seats in the next congressional midterm; more so if the president is unpopular. And pretty much since he took office, Trump has been the least-popular president in modern times.

3) The longer Republicans in Congress go without a legislative win, the harder it is for them to sell their candidacy on a state level. Republicans need to pass a health-care bill they can sell. They'd like to get tax reform done, too. Right now, they have not doneany of that.

4) A few closer-than-expected special elections in Georgia, Kansas and Montana for Republicansraise the possibility that the Democrats' base is fired up in a way it wasn't in past congressional elections. (Though Republicans won all of the elections.)

November 2018 is still a year-and-a-half away, so there's no rule that Senate candidates have to get in right now. And primaries aren't the end of the world; sometimes they make the candidates who emerge stronger.

Plus, Republicans argue, Democrats don't have especially stellar recruits in their two key races. U.S. Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) just won a congressional seat in Nevada and is going to challenge Republican Sen. Dean Heller; Democrats have no one in Arizona to challenge Republican Sen. Jeff Flake.

But since we're going to spend the next 489 days trying to assess which opposing force is stronger in the 2018 Senate midterms Senate Democrats' vulnerability in Trump statesor Trump's unpopularity let's plant an early flag and say that, so far, Trump's unpopularity appears to be weighing on Senate Republicans.

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Do Senate Republicans have a Trump recruiting problem? (Part 2) - Washington Post

Assembly Republicans say the prospect of iPhone maker Foxconn bringing as many as 10,000 jobs to Wisconsin is among the issues in the states current budget standoff which could affect funding for a freeway project south of Milwaukee, where the company reportedly is eyeing building sites.

Assembly GOP leaders, in a memo made public Wednesday, also urge business groups to offer their own ideas to resolve the impasse over the states next transportation budget.

In a section of the memo called Effect of Delays on Economic Development, Assembly Republicans say Foxconn has indicated its desire to locate in southeastern Wisconsin with up to 10,000 jobs.

That marks the first time high-level state officials have publicly acknowledged the possibility of Foxconn, a Taiwanese iPhone maker, locating in the state.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has reported that Foxconn has inquired about building sites in Pleasant Prairie. The partially completed Interstate 94 North-South project runs through that area, running from the Illinois state line to the Milwaukee area.

Gov. Scott Walkers budget proposal would provide $31 million for the project in the next two years, far less than the nearly $270 million that would be needed to keep the project on its current construction schedule.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, said in a brief interview Wednesday that he has not talked directly to Foxconn officials. But Vos said there are economic development programs all over the state. The one that everybody seems to say has the most potential, that the president mentioned, is this Foxconn.

President Donald Trump, in a public visit to the Milwaukee area last month, said just backstage we were negotiating with a major, major incredible manufacturer of phones and computers and televisions, and I think theyre going to give (Gov. Scott Walker) a very happy surprise.

Vos said: They (Foxconn) are going to want good access to three things: a favorable tax climate, good workers and a good transportation system.

The one thing thats lagging in the three legs of the stool is finding a way to sufficiently fund our transportation system, Vos said.

The company has discussed spending up to $10 billion in the United States to build iPhones and televisions. Wisconsin and other Midwestern states are under consideration for the location.

The offices of Walker and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, did not immediately respond to requests for comment late Wednesday.

Assembly Republicans last week, in an effort to resolve the state budget impasse, floated the idea of collecting a new fee on heavy trucks in Wisconsin. But a group of conservative state senators and industry groups, including the state business lobby, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, dubbed that idea a nonstarter.

Wednesdays memo from Assembly Republicans urges those groups to offer their own proposals to fund state road projects. Disagreement among statehouse Republicans on that issue is central to the budget debate, causing lawmakers last week to blow past a July 1 deadline to enact a new budget.

Vos said Assembly GOP leaders feel like theyve been negotiating with themselves instead of with Senate leaders and Walker.

To our colleagues in the Senate: Im done putting out ideas for you to reject. So how about if you come up with some ideas and well take a look at those? Vos said.

WMC said Wednesday it welcomes Assembly Republicans offer. The group also said, WMC is pleased that the punitive tax on heavy trucks appears to be dead.

Any discussion of revenue increases must include meaningful reforms to reduce costs and spend our current resources more wisely, said Scott Manley, a spokesman for the group.

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Assembly Republicans: iPhone manufacturer eying Wisconsin for plant site linked to state budget debate - Madison.com

MSNBC

Some Republicans give up on the idea of an 'Ayn Rand utopia' MSNBC A core tenet of Republican ideology in recent years is the belief that no tax should go up on anyone, at any time, by any amount, for any reason. GOP officials' unflinching commitment to this idea has created all kinds of governance problems, but not ...

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Some Republicans give up on the idea of an 'Ayn Rand utopia' - MSNBC

Republican senators have had to decide whether public appearances would be fruitful or the crowds hostile. Many lawmakers seem to have given up on town hall-style meetings and parades. Others are still braving them, knowing they may get an earful on the health care bills.

Never before, in the 15 times that Ive marched in this parade, have I had people so focused on a single issue, Senator Susan Collins of Maine, who rejected the latest version of the bill, said in an interview shortly after walking the parade route in Eastport, Me. I think its because health care is so personal.

On Tuesday, Ms. Collins and the few other Republican senators who ventured out most of them opponents of the current bill, and most in rather remote locales were largely rewarded with encouragement to keep fighting.

This may be promising for other senators who are not planning to stay in all week. Ms. Capito has public events set for the coming days. The delay in voting on the Senate bill, which Ms. Capito strongly rebuffed, has taken some of the heat off, though activists in West Virginia said signs had been readied for Tuesdays parades just in case.

Other Republicans will soon be out and about, and some already have been. Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana was met with chants of Vote no! in a Baton Rouge church on Friday as he discussed the states recovery from the 2016 floods. Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas will hold three town hall-style meetings this week in the western part of the state, and Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa has scheduled nine as part of his annual tour of the states 99 counties. Senator Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania is holding a televised meeting on Wednesday, albeit with an invitation-only audience.

While the receptions they receive may vary, judging by those in the streets on Tuesday, the primary subject will not.

Health care! Health care! Health care! Hilary Georgia, a part-time resident of Eastport, cried as Ms. Collins passed the spectators in camp chairs unfolded before neat wooden houses.

Eastport, which is recognized as the easternmost city in the United States, draws a large and festive crowd on Independence Day, even though it is remote. So is Wrangell, Alaska, where Senator Lisa Murkowski, another key Republican in the health care debate, took part in a parade on Tuesday as well.

There was no escaping politics, however. The reception for Ms. Collins was one of gratitude and fulsome thanks for her disapproval of the Senate bill, mixed with some anxiety over whether she would stick to her position.

Im still concerned because I know it keeps getting revised, said Kristin McKinlay, 44, an independent voter who is worried that a new bill could leave her without health insurance and stopped Ms. Collins to introduce herself because she had called the senators office so many times. I hope we have her commitment.

At a late-morning parade in Ely, a small city in northern Nevada surrounded for miles by only sagebrush and juniper trees, Senator Dean Heller, who has come out against the bill, rode down Aultman Street on a horse.

Get in line behind Trump! one man shouted, while an older man offered, Thanks for protecting Medicare! Generally, however, things remained subdued in Ely perhaps in part because, as several people along the parade route said, residents were just surprised to see Mr. Heller there.

This was still more activity than anything done by Mr. Gardner of Colorado, who has not held a town hall-style meeting this year. Coloradans have noticed. In February, hundreds gathered for a mock town hall-style meeting in Denver, where they addressed questions to a cardboard cutout of the senator. Last week, wheelchair-bound constituents occupied his office for 60 hours in protest of cuts proposed in the health bill, before being dragged out by the police.

Mr. Gardners Fourth of July was devoid of public events, though on July 3, he could be seen on his front lawn in his hometown, Yuma, playing with squirt guns and smoke bombs with his children.

This was as combative as his holiday was likely to get. Even though one in four residents of Yuma County receives Medicaid assistance, and many would probably lose their health care coverage under the Senate bill, those who disagree around Yuma tend to keep quiet.

I wanted to say something so bad, let him know what I thought, said a woman on a nearby porch, who gave her name only as Edna and identified herself as a 76-year-old lifelong Republican. She said several people in her family would lose coverage if the Affordable Care Acts expansion of Medicaid were rolled back, but when she ran into Mr. Gardner with his grandmother at the Yuma Days dance at the local high school a week ago, she let it drop.

I went to school with his aunt, Edna said. I see his mom and dad daily. We are all friendly. Am I going to boo at him in front of his grandmother in her wheelchair?

There is also the question of whether talking to ones senators, much less yelling at them, will make much of a difference anyway, a pessimistic thought on a day celebrating the ideals of self-government.

I think theyve got their priorities mixed up, said Connie Christiansen, standing on the lawn of her familys house in Shell Rock, Iowa, having watched as Boy Scouts, tractors, ATVs and musicians but no United States senators passed by.

If she saw Mr. Grassley, she said, she would tell him to retire. She had simply forgotten about Iowas other senator, Joni Ernst.

Ms. Christiansen called her 25-year-old cousin, Maggie Cain, over with a question: What do you think about talking to senators?

I feel like it wouldnt really make a difference, Ms. Cain replied.

See? Ms. Christiansen said. It doesnt make a difference how young you are. You feel the same. Helpless.

An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, had no public events on July 4. Mr. Portman marched in two parades.

Campbell Robertson reported from Alderson; Dave Philipps from Yuma, Colo.; Jess Bidgood from Eastport, Me.; and Emily Cochrane from Shell Rock, Iowa. Kim Raff contributed reporting from Ely, Nev.

A version of this article appears in print on July 5, 2017, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: With Voters Riled, G.O.P. Senators Lie Low.

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Senate Republicans Lie Low on the Fourth, or Face Single-Minded ... - New York Times

Throughout the Obama years, one of the more frequent Republicancriticisms of the Democratic presidentwas that he was engaging in class warfare against the richand punishing success.President Obama, Republicans claimed time and again, was fosteringresentment against the wealthy and cynically exploiting class divisions for political gain. Class warfare may make for good politics, but it makes for rotten economics, said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., at one point,while responding to Obamas proposal for a minimum tax of 30 percent on millionaires (i.e., the Buffett tax).

Like the allegationsthat Obama was a foreign-born Muslim or a socialist (and occasionally evena communist), however,this chargenever had much truth to it. The wealthiest Americans continued to do exceedingly well under Obama. Indeed, President Obamawas if anything the antithesis of a class warrior, as he approached governing in a detached and technocratic manner,often setting aside moral questions about class, inequality and social structure to concentrate on more practical questions. (Would a true left-wingclass warrior have protectedWall Street CEOs from the pitchforks?)

Though Obama was far from the moralizing class warrior that Fox News depicted him to be, Republicans perceived him as such because his administrationspolicies were not always favorable towardbillionaires and corporations, and on occasion the presidentwould remark on the fact that economic inequality hadincreased. Ironically, the conservative obsession with Obamas apparent class politics often revealed more about Republicans and their own class politics than it did about Obama. While the 44th presidents administration sought to played a neutral role in terms of class interests (something that earned him plenty of criticism from progressives), modern Republicans have never failed to serve the interests of billionaires and corporate America.

This kind ofrhetoricwas part of a long tradition in which Republican politicians denounce class warfare and those who purportedlyengage in it while actively waging their own class war against the poor and working class.

This class warfarehas become all the more apparent since the GOPtook over the federal government earlier this year. Nothing has revealed the GOPs disdain for poor people and working-class familiesquite like the Republican health carebillscurrentlyin the House and Senate, which would both provide generous tax cuts to the rich while cutting health benefits for the poor, the middle class and the elderly (and also throw more than 20 million people off health insurance, according to the CBO). It is hard to exaggeratethe mass suffering that these bills would cause. As Jeff Spross recently pointed out in The Week,Not in their most fevered imaginations do left-wing tax-hikers envision inflicting this kind of suffering on the 1 percent.

In the Nation,Zoe Carpenter accuratelysummed up Trumpcarelast week: The Senate GOP isnt fixing healthcare. Its waging class war.

With thisclass waron fulldisplayone might expect a growingnumber of Americans to finallyrecognizethe GOP as the party of, by and for the rich. But its not as if this is a new effort. Republicans have been waging this class war for decades, yetjust eight months ago Donald Trump managed to win the election by running as a populist, and his victory was due in large part to the support he received fromRust Belt states, where working-class people have felt the brunt of the GOPs decades-longassault on working people. To some extent, Trump succeeded in the Rust Belt because he was seen by many people as a different kind of Republicanwho would actually help workers (his stance on free trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership obviously played a role in this perception). But Trumps success was also the result of a kind of cultural class warfare thathas been in the GOP playbook for a very long time.

Over the past few decades Republicans have not only waged an economic class war against the working class but a cultural class waragainst the so-called liberal elite which includes college professors, journalists, Democratic politicians, urban professionals, Hollywood entertainers and so on. While Trumps rhetoric may be unusually belligerent, the practice of railing against cultural elites has been employed by conservatives forgenerations, as Thomas Frank explored in his 2004 book, Whats the Matter With Kansas?The true genius of the rights culture war is that it enablesclear economic elites like Trump to portray themselvesas populists,even while they enactpolicies that servebillionaires and multinationalcorporations.

Right-wing populism, Frank observes, both encourages class hostility in the cultural sense and simultaneously denies the economic basis of the grievance. Thus, Republicans can wage their class war on the working class while still claiming to be populists who are fighting for real Americans. Frank elucidates further on the right-wing conception of class:

Class, conservatives insist, is not really about money or birth or even occupation. It is primarily a matter of authenticity, that most valuable cultural commodity. The erasure of the economic is a necessary precondition for most of the basic backlash ideas.

That last point has become all the more relevant in the era of Trump. If the erasure of the economic (from class) is in fact a necessary precondition for the ideas we see embodied in the Republican Party today, then the obvious solution is to restore the primacy of the economic. Frank goes on to make an interesting analogy, describing the right-wing populist vision as nothing more than an old-fashioned leftist vision of the world with the economics drained out.

Where the muckrakers of old faulted capitalism for botching this institution and that, he writes, the backlash thinkers simply change the script to blame liberalism.

This analogy is somewhat unfair toleftists, who had a much more sophisticated worldview that was largely based on reality since capitalism reallywas at fault for many of the problems identified by the muckrakers. But it does raise an important question: Is a modern version of the old-fashioned leftist vision the best way to defeat the phony populism of the right? Obviously left-wingers like Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn believe it is, and the latters unexpected success in last months British election certainly bolsteredthe argument.

Thomas Frank who knows a thing or two about right-wing populism agrees with this sentiment. In his most recent book, Listen, Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?,Frank looks at how the Democratic Party abandoned class politics toward the latter part of the 20th century and embraced corporate-friendlycentrism, which gave right-wingers a perfect opportunity to advance their own warped formof class politics. Today we are living in the aftermath of this Democratic shift towardsneoliberalism.

If class warfare is being waged, it is not Democrats who are the aggressors, saidHenry Aaron of the Brookings Institute inan analysis of the House version of Trumpcare published in March. This is doubtless the case, and it is why the Republicans have been so successful in crushing the working class while maintaining theirpopulist veneer.If Democrats want to expose Republicans as the party of the 1 percent and start winning elections again, then perhaps it is time for them to become the aggressorsand start waging a class war of their own.

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Now more than ever, Republicans are engaged in class warfare: Isn't it time for Democrats to fight back? - Salon