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The past few months of special elections have been endlessly nerve-wracking for theGOP.

In April, Republicans nearly lost a congressional race in Kansass 4th District, one of the most conservative seats in the country. Meanwhile, they are still struggling in Georgias 6th District, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is neck and neck with pro-Trump career politician Karen Handel.

Now, Republicans face similar woes in Montana, wherevoters head to polls next week to fill the at-large congressional district vacated by Trumps Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke.

The Democratic candidate is Rob Quist, a locally renownedpolitical folk singer-songwriter best known in Montana as the former guitarist and banjo player in the Mission Mountain Wood Band. He has also served on the Montana Arts Council, where he enacted an anti-bullying initiative and protected arts funding for Montana schools.

Quisthas campaigned on his political independence, at one point responding to accusations he would strip people of gun rights by shooting a TV. He is a staunch supporter of overturning Citizens United, and hasrun on protecting public lands, education funding, and reproductive rights.

His Republicanopponent, Greg Gianforte, is a techmillionaire and a transplant fromNew Jersey, who ran afailed campaign for governor in 2016against incumbent Steve Bullock.

Gianforte has drawn fire for his donations to anti-LGBT hate groups, and fordiscriminating againstdisabled employeesat his business. He was caught on tape praising the disastrous GOPhealth care repeal billin a phone call with corporate lobbyists, something he is trying to back away from.

He alsoowns shares in state-run Russian oil companies under U.S. sanctions, and in a European cement company accused of paying off ISIS.

Republican interest groups like the Chamber of Commerce are desperately flooding this election with last-minute ad buys, scared they may lose this seat. Meanwhile,the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee just injected $400,000 into the race, independent Vermont Sen.Bernie Sanders is campaigning for Quist, and he is being boosted by a joint campaign of progressive organizations, including SwingLeft, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, MoveOn.org, and Democracy for America.

Quite aside from Gianfortes personal scandals, partof the problem for Republicans is that, while Montana is solidly red in presidential racesand this Houseseat has been held by the partyfor 20 years, conventional right-wing messaging does not sit well with Montana voters.

As BuzzFeeds Anne Helen Peterson writes in her fascinating synopsis of the race, a large number of Montana voters deliberately split their ticket because they view divided party control as a natural check on government power:

Heres what you need to understand about Montana before all else: Its a state where 56% of voters backed Trump but that same election, 50.2% also voted for their Democratic governor, Steve Bullock. In 2012, 48.6% voted for Senator Jon Tester, also a Democrat. Traveling over a thousand miles in the state, I talked to many Montanans whod voted this way and were incredibly proud of it. In Montana, the independent voter isnt a mythical unicorn. Its a way of life.

Republicans do not seem to understand this, and have tried torun a conventional partisan red contest, attacking Quist as a hippie and Nancy Pelosi in a cowboy hat. By contrast, Quist has spurned discussion of parties and focused solely on issues.

Montana is yet another reminder of how Republicans are on the defensive now that they are a unified governing party. Voters around the country are starting to see the GOP only cares about power, and candidates like Quist who are out to truly represent the people are finding fertile ground. Whatever happens next week in Montana, this should scare Republicans.

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The special election in Montana is terrifying Republicans - Shareblue Media

New York Times

Republican Hopes for Rewriting Tax Code in 2017 Are Fading New York Times WASHINGTON Only two months ago, Republicans in Congress and President Trump's top economic advisers were confidently predicting that a sweeping rewrite of the tax code would be in hand by summer's end. But with the White House consumed with ... Republicans worry Trump scandals may doom legislative agendaReuters Republicans fear Trump turmoil will derail agendaFinancial Times all 65 news articles »

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Republican Hopes for Rewriting Tax Code in 2017 Are Fading - New York Times

Former FBI Director Robert Mueller at the Phillip Burton Federal Building in San Francisco in 2016.

The appointment of ex-FBI director Robert Mueller as special counsel overseeing an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and potential Russian connections to President Trump and his allies is another surprising development after a week full of them. Consider: Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, who was investigating the potential Russia-Trump ties, only to now have Comeys predecessor at the FBI take over the investigation. And Trumps deputy attorney general, Rod Rosenstein, who was being mocked by Democrats for his role in Comeys firing, has now made an appointment that is being praised by Eric Holder, Barack Obamas attorney general. The president, whose aides were advocating that the Russia investigation end soon, must now watch as Mueller quits his law firm job to devote himself full time to this assignment.

So what does this all mean? We wont ultimately know for some time. But the Mueller appointment and the surrounding controversy around Trump and Russia remains as much a political issue as a legal one. So lets look at how this affects the relevant political players.

Although the simple case is that Muellers appointment is not welcome news for Trump the White House was surprised by the announcement it does have some plausible benefits for the president, especially in the near term. The Russia investigation had been dogging the Trump administration, and his firing of Comey had turned into a debacle.

Trump can now say there is an independent investigation going on, by someone he did not personally appoint and who is not beholden to his party. And Mueller has very strong credentials. The president and his team, in theory, can turn the focus to governing, while deferring questions about the investigation. And maybe Comey, who appears to have notes of every conversation he has had with the president, will share them with Mueller and not The New York Times. (That said, as of late Wednesday, Trump had not yet reacted to Muellers appointment a poorly worded Twitter rant could mitigate any short-term benefit for Trump.)

Its also possible Mueller will interpret his mandate as limited to Russia and the election. Its not clear Mueller would be investigating, for example, the details of Comeys firing. That would be to Trumps benefit.

Most importantly, Mueller can exonerate the president. If this is a high-risk development for Trump, it also comes with a big reward if Trump hasnt done anything seriously wrong.

Muellers appointment ensures that the Russia controversy wont just go away at least not anytime soon. And he could gravely threaten Trumps presidency if he finds clear, improper connections between the presidents campaign and Russian officials. There was a reason that Republicans on Capitol Hill and the Trump administration were trying to stop the appointment of a special counsel. Prosecutors with broad authority to investigate can cause major problems. Just ask Bill Clinton.

Trump could in theory order Rosenstein to fire Mueller. But that would be exactly what Richard Nixon did, ordering his Justice Department to dump the special prosecutor investigating the president.

Republican members were being repeatedly asked about the Trump investigation. Like Trump, they can now defer to Muellers probe. This will make them very happy. And in the long run, Mueller helps them avoid the awkward circumstance of investigating their own president. A damning report will make it easier to call for Trumps resignation, if strong evidence emerges. Alternatively, a report that absolves Trump could take the Russia issue off the table without Republicans looking like theyd engaged in a partisan cover-up.

More importantly, Republicans now have more room to get back to their policy goals, such as tax reform and Obamacare repeal. Muellers investigation is likely to take months. While that unfolds, Trump can sign into law bills passed by Republicans in the House and the Senate.

Were not going to do fake balance here. This may or may not end up as good news for Trump but its almost certainly good news for congressional Republicans.

The one problem? Mueller is only investigating the Russia issue. Its likely Trump will do something else controversial in the past two weeks alone, he allegedly shared highly classified intelligence with the Russians, and he fired Comey in a clumsy way that created all kinds of political problems. Republicans will still have to answer for Trumps other controversial moves.

Just reread the bad news for Trump paragraph from above. An investigation of the 2016 election, Trump and his allies could turn up damaging information. A report written by Mueller will have credibility. Its far more likely that Mueller, as opposed to GOP-led congressional committees, will release information damaging to the president. And the timing of the investigation could be good for Democrats, keeping Russia in the news through the midterm year, even if it results in a slowdown in headlines now.

But we should not ignore real-world impacts or lose sight of the big picture. Democrats strongly disagree with Republicans like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan on policy, including on sweeping issues currently on the congressional docket such as health care and taxes. In the eyes of many Democrats, Trump and the potential laws he might sign could damage the country for years to come. A process that could (in the long run) lead to Trumps removal from office is a major step for liberals.

In the short term, they may have lost an issue. Polls showed an overwhelming majority of Americans (78 percent, according to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey) wanted some kind of investigation of Trumps alleged ties to Russia from outside of Congress. Democrats could have pounded Trump and Republicans on their lack of accountability every day till next years midterms.

Mueller has a reputation for independence, like Comey. How he approaches this investigation is unpredictable, and that has risks for Democrats. (Ask Hillary Clinton.) And because Democrats have effusively praised Muellers appointment, theyll have trouble criticizing him later on or re-litigating the Russia issue if he exonerates Trump.

What would have been more predictable? A House Judiciary Committee investigation in 2019 led by Democratic Chairman John Conyers, being cheered on by Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Make no mistake: If Democrats had won control of Congress next year and Trump had blocked a special counsel up until then, impeachment would have been on the table. Now, Democrats have to wait and see what Mueller concludes.

By all accounts, Mueller seems to be respected by all sides.

Continued here:
Why The Special Counsel May Be Good News For Republicans And Bad News For Trump - FiveThirtyEight

Senate Republicans argue House and Senate intelligence committees' investigations are continuing to proceed with bipartisan support, and that that they should be the primary vehicles for the investigation.

"I don't think we're there yet," Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake said of a special prosecutor.

A special prosecutor would be appointed in place of the current FBI investigation into ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, while an independent commission would replace the congressional investigations into the matter.

Sen. Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, said the Senate should give the intelligence committee time to complete its investigation before considering additional steps.

"A special prosecutor generally is far-ranging and never stops," Shelby said. "It goes everywhere and generally there's not much discipline to them."

Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the first Republican senator on Wednesday to suggest a special prosecutor was needed to investigate the Russia allegations.

"It's imperative that we Congress, the FBI, the administration work to restore the public's trust," she said in a statement. "In order to gain the credibility, it may be that we need to look to an independent commission or special prosecutor."

"It is time we look at the idea of an independent commission or special prosecutor," the Illinois Republican told CNN's Alisyn Camerota on "New Day.

And Rep. Mike Simpson, an Idaho Republican, also endorsed an independent commission for the Russia investigation, though he made the distinction that he did not support appointing a special prosecutor. He argued that the congressional investigations would be tainted by partisanship.

"Nobody's going to believe them," Simpson told reporters. "That's unfortunately just the way it is because it got so partisan."

Rep. Walter Jones, a North Carolina Republican, has also signed on to Democrat efforts to create an independent commission.

Several committees in Congress were quickly moving to address the Comey memo story Wednesday. The Senate intelligence committee invited Comey to testify and sought his memos, while the Senate judiciary committee requested the FBI memos as well as any possible tapes from the White House in response to Trump's tweet last week suggesting he had taped conversations with Comey.

And House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Jason Chaffetz announced he was inviting Comey to testify before his committee next Wednesday, though the committee has yet to make contact with the former FBI director.

House Democrats also sought to ramp up pressure on Republicans by pushing for a discharge petition to force a vote on creating an independent commission.

Republicans on the intelligence panels defended their ability to carry out their investigations.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a Senate intelligence committee member, said on CNN's "New Day" she did not support a special prosecutor for the investigation.

"I am confident that we will do a good job," Collins said. "I do think it would help if we brought in an experienced former prosecutor or an experienced investigator, and I have made that recommendation to both the chairman and the vice chairman."

Other Republicans are also sticking by the intelligence committees, saying they weren't confident that an independent commission or special prosecutor was a better option.

Sen. John McCain has long called for a select committee to investigate Russia, but the Arizona Republican does not back a special prosecutor.

"The problem with a special prosecutor is we've had mixed results in the past," McCain said.

Sen. Pat Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican, pointed to bipartisan agreement thus far in the Senate intelligence investigation, although the House's probe has run into partisan problems.

"I still have a lot of confidence in the Senate intelligence committee," Toomey said. "There's bipartisan leadership that have both very publicly committed to getting this job done."

CNN's Ted Barrett contributed to this report.

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Republican voices grow for independent Russia probe - CNN

New York Times

A Few Brave Republicans New York Times Well into 1974, most Republicans stayed loyal to Richard Nixon, after plenty of evidence of abuse of power and obstruction of justice, as the political scientist Jonathan Bernstein pointed out on Twitter. A majority of Republicans on the House ...

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A Few Brave Republicans - New York Times