Mediaboss Marketing

When West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice stood next to President Trump during a campaign rally in Huntington, W.Va., on Thursday to announce that he was switching parties and becoming a Republican, it was a historic moment for the GOP.

Justice's decision gives Republicans control of 34 governorships tying a record set nearly a century ago. Democrats hold just 15 governorships. (Alaska's governor is an independent). Republicans now hold so-called trifectas control of a governor's mansion and both chambers of a state legislature in 26 states. Democrats have just six such trifectas. That's in addition to Republicans' complete control of the federal government.

And unlike their D.C. cousins, Republicans in statehouses across the country can point to conservative policy accomplishments this year, such as adding new restrictions on abortion, expanding gun rights, weakening private and public sector labor unions and expanding school voucher programs.

But a constellation of forces means that this level of Republican dominance in the states is brittle and in danger of shattering.

Large playing field, unpopular president

Perhaps the biggest reason Republicans are vulnerable is because of the extent of their past successes at the state level. Republicans are defending 27 of the 37 governors' seats that are up election between now and November 2018. And 14 of those 27 seats will be vacant including large, important states such as Florida, Michigan and Ohio mostly due to term limits.

While it's too early to tell how many races will be truly competitive, it's likely Republicans will face plenty of headwinds. State-level elections have become increasingly nationalized over the past two decades and the president's popularity can have a major impact on voter enthusiasm and turnout especially a challenge with a president as polarizing and unpopular as President Trump currently is.

Infighting and overreach

Years in power have also created problems for state-level Republicans. In Kansas, an overly ambitious plan to cut taxes orchestrated by Gov. Sam Brownback (who's been nominated to a State Department post in the Trump administration) starved the state of funds for its schools and other services. Kansas Republicans wound up bitterly divided over the issue and earlier this year, a moderate faction sided with Democrats to override Brownback's veto and rescind the tax cuts.

Similarly, a series of tax cuts in oil-dependent Oklahoma left the state poorly prepared for a downturn in energy prices. Republican lawmakers were forced to swallow their opposition and vote for tax hikes in order to keep the state solvent.

With Democrats all but vanquished in several Republican-dominated states, intra-Republican disputes have taken center stage. In Texas, Republicans are divided between a business-friendly faction that prioritizes low taxes and less regulation and social conservatives eager to pass the most conservative legislation possible, such as a bill limiting transgender access to bathrooms. Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Rick Scott was running campaign-style ads against fellow Republicans in the legislature over a dispute about economic development funds.

A combination of voters unhappy with the governing party's track record and internal party rifts that will play out in primary elections, sometimes leading to extreme or unqualified candidates, could weigh down Republican candidates up and down the ballot over the next year.

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announces that he is switching parties to become a Republican as President Trump listens on at a campaign rally Thursday in Huntington, W.Va. Justin Merriman/Getty Images hide caption

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announces that he is switching parties to become a Republican as President Trump listens on at a campaign rally Thursday in Huntington, W.Va.

The maps and the courts

After the Republican wave election in 2010, victorious GOP state lawmakers took advantage of that year's decennial redistricting to further entrench their power, especially in swing states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina.

Republican-drawn legislative and congressional district maps in North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Georgia and Alabama are already in federal court because of concerns about racial gerrymandering and North Carolina has already been ordered to redraw some of its districts.

But an even greater existential threat to Republican dominance at the state level comes from one of the most important Supreme Court cases of this fall's docket. Arguments in Gill vs. Whitford could determine whether Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin were allowed to take partisanship into account when drawing legislative boundaries. The Republican maps in Wisconsin were so formidably drawn that the GOP won 60 of 99 seats in the Wisconsin House even as Democrats drew more votes statewide in 2012 and 2014.

While both parties use partisan gerrymandering to their advantage, Republicans' dominance at the state level means the GOP has far more on the line from a Supreme Court decision.

Can Democrats capitalize?

The flip side of Republicans' dominance is the weakness of state-level Democrats. Going into the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats had full control of 17 states compared to Republicans' 10 states. Democrats acknowledge they've let their state parties wither and need to focus on rebuilding.

As former President Barack Obama told NPR's Steve Inskeep after the 2016 election, "you've got a situation where there are not only entire states but also big chunks of states where, if we're not showing up, if we're not in there making an argument, then we're going to lose."

But Democrats have a long way to go. A much touted effort to recruit candidates for this year's Virginia's House of Delegates elections has substantially increased the number of districts Democrats are competing in from 39 in 2015 to 67 today but that still leaves 33 districts where the party was unable to find a candidate to run.

Still, while Democrats haven't won any of the special U.S. House elections so far this year, they've significantly improved their margins even in deeply Republican districts suggesting that Democratic voters are highly motivated.

More evidence of enthusiasm comes from the latest Quinnipiac poll that has 52 percent of voters saying they prefer that Democrats control Congress compared to 38 percent for Republicans. Given the GOP edge in congressional and state legislative districts, Democrats will probably need popular sentiment to sway far in their favor if they are to have a hope of regaining power.

It's still 15 months until Election Day 2018 and plenty can still happen. But based on the landscape, it's hard to see how Republicans can maintain their current level of dominance.

Continued here:
In The States, Republicans Have Never Been So Dominant Or Vulnerable - NPR

But in interviews with more than 75 Republicans at every level of the party, elected officials, donors and strategists expressed widespread uncertainty about whether Mr. Trump would be on the ballot in 2020 and little doubt that others in the party are engaged in barely veiled contingency planning.

They see weakness in this president, said Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona. Look, its not a nice business were in.

Mr. Trump changed the rules of intraparty politics last year when he took down some of the leading lights of the Republican Party to seize the nomination. Now a handful of hopefuls are quietly discarding traditions that would have dictated, for instance, the respectful abstention from speaking at Republican dinners in the states that kick off the presidential nomination process.

In most cases, the shadow candidates and their operatives have signaled that they are preparing only in case Mr. Trump is not available in 2020. Most significant, multiple advisers to Mr. Pence have already intimated to party donors that he would plan to run if Mr. Trump did not.

Mr. Kasich has been more defiant: The Ohio governor, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016, has declined to rule out a 2020 campaign in multiple television interviews, and has indicated to associates that he may run again, even if Mr. Trump seeks another term.

Mr. Kasich, who was a sharp critic of the Republicans failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act with deep Medicaid cuts, intends to step up his advocacy by convening a series of policy forums, in Ohio and around the country.

Hell continue to speak out and lead on health care and on national security issues, trade policy, economic expansion and poverty, John Weaver, a political adviser of Mr. Kasichs, said.

In the wider world of conservative Trump opponents, William Kristol, editor at large of The Weekly Standard, said he had begun informal conversations about creating a Committee Not to Renominate the President.

We need to take one shot at liberating the Republican Party from Trump, and conservatism from Trumpism, Mr. Kristol said.

It may get worse, said Jay Bergman, an Illinois petroleum executive and a leading Republican donor. Grievous setbacks in the midterm elections of 2018 could bolster challengers in the party.

If the Republicans have lost a lot of seats in the Congress and they blame Trump for it, then there are going to be people who emerge who are political opportunists, Mr. Bergman said.

Mr. Pence has been the pacesetter. Though it is customary for vice presidents to keep a full political calendar, he has gone a step further, creating an independent power base, cementing his status as Mr. Trumps heir apparent and promoting himself as the main conduit between the Republican donor class and the administration.

The vice president created his own political fund-raising committee, Great America Committee, shrugging off warnings from some high-profile Republicans that it would create speculation about his intentions. The group, set up with help from Jack Oliver, a former fund-raiser for George W. Bush, has overshadowed Mr. Trumps own primary outside political group, America First Action, even raising more in disclosed donations.

Here are a few of the political events that Vice President Mike Pence has attended:

Mr. Pence also installed Nick Ayers, a sharp-elbowed political operative, as his new chief of staff last month a striking departure from vice presidents long history of elevating a government veteran to be their top staff member. Mr. Ayers had worked on many campaigns but never in the federal government.

Some in the partys establishment wing are remarkably open about their wish that Mr. Pence would be the Republican standard-bearer in 2020, Representative Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania said.

For some, it is for ideological reasons, and for others it is for stylistic reasons, Mr. Dent said, complaining of the exhausting amount of instability, chaos and dysfunction surrounding Mr. Trump.

Mr. Pence has made no overt efforts to separate himself from the beleaguered president. He has kept up his relentless public praise and even in private is careful to bow to the president.

Mr. Pences aides, however, have been less restrained in private, according to two people briefed on the conversations. In a June meeting with Al Hubbard, an Indiana Republican who was a top economic official in Mr. Bushs White House, an aide to the vice president, Marty Obst, said that they wanted to be prepared to run in case there was an opening in 2020 and that Mr. Pence would need Mr. Hubbards help, according to a Republican briefed on the meeting. Reached on the phone, Mr. Hubbard declined to comment.

Mr. Ayers has signaled to multiple major Republican donors that Mr. Pence wants to be ready.

Mr. Obst denied that he and Mr. Ayers had made any private insinuations and called suggestions that the vice president wass positioning himself for 2020 beyond ridiculous.

For his part, Mr. Pence is methodically establishing his own identity and bestowing personal touches on people who could pay dividends in the future. He not only spoke in June at one of the most important yearly events for Iowa Republicans, Senator Joni Ernsts pig roast, but he held a separate, more intimate gathering for donors afterward.

When he arrived in Des Moines on Air Force Two, Mr. Pence was greeted by an Iowan who had complained about his experience with the Affordable Care Act and who happened to be a member of the state Republican central committee.

The vice president has also turned his residence at the Naval Observatory into a hub for relationship building. In June, he opened the mansion to social conservative activists like Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and representatives of the billionaire kingmakers Charles G. and David H. Koch.

At large gatherings for contributors, Mr. Pence keeps a chair free at each table so he can work his way around the room. At smaller events for some of the partys biggest donors, he lays on the charm. Last month, Mr. Pence hosted the Kentucky coal barons Kelly and Joe Craft, along with the University of Kentucky mens basketball coach, John Calipari, for a dinner a few hours after Ms. Craft appeared before the Senate for her hearing as nominee to become ambassador to Canada.

Other Republicans eyeing the White House have taken note.

They see him moving around, having big donors at the house for dinner, said Charles R. Black Jr., a veteran of Republican presidential politics. And theyve got to try to keep up.

Mr. Cotton, for example, is planning a two-day, $5,000-per-person fund-raiser in New York next month, ostensibly for Senate Republicans (and his own eventual re-election campaign). The gathering will include a dinner and a series of events at the Harvard Club, featuring figures well known in hawkish foreign policy circles such as Stephen Hadley, Mr. Bushs national security adviser.

Mr. Cotton, 40, a first-term Arkansas senator, made headlines for going to Iowa last year during the campaign. He was back just after the election for a birthday party in Des Moines for former Gov. Terry E. Branstad and returned in May to give the keynote speech at a county Republican dinner in Council Bluffs.

Mr. Sasse, among the sharpest Senate Republican critics of Mr. Trump, has quietly introduced himself to political donors in language that several Republicans have found highly suggestive, describing himself as an independent-minded conservative who happens to caucus with Republicans in the Senate. Advisers to Mr. Sasse, of Nebraska, have discussed creating an advocacy group to help promote his agenda nationally.

He held a private meet-and-greet last month with local Republican leaders in Iowa, where he lamented the plodding pace of Capitol Hill and declined to recant his past criticism of Mr. Trump.

Jennifer Horn, a former chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party who hosted Mr. Sasse in the first primary state last year, said she saw the senator as speaking for conservatives who felt that Republicans in Washington had not been delivering on their promises.

There are a lot of people in New Hampshire who have developed a lot of respect for him, and Im one of them, she said.

James Wegmann, a spokesman for Mr. Sasse, said the only future date that Mr. Sasse had in mind was Nov. 24, 2017, when the University of Iowa meets the University of Nebraska on the football field.

Huskers-Hawkeyes rematch, Mr. Wegmann said, and like every Nebraskan, hes betting on the side of righteousness.

Beyond Washington, other up-and-coming Republicans are making moves should there be an opening in 2020. Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations and a former governor of South Carolina, put her longtime pollster on the payroll, has gotten better acquainted with some of New Yorks financiers and carved out a far more muscular foreign policy niche than Mr. Trump.

She sounds more like me than Trump, said Senator Lindsey Graham, a hawkish Republican from South Carolina.

Read more here:
Republican Shadow Campaign for 2020 Takes Shape as Trump Doubts Grow - New York Times

President Trump alternately cajoles and berates Congress as he struggles to find legislative wins in key issues he campaigned on. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

We're going to win so much, you're going to get tired of winning, then-candidate Donald Trump said in February 2016. Youre going to say: Please, Mr. President, I have a headache. Please, don't win so much. This is getting terrible. And I'm going to say, No, we have to make America great again. You're gonna say, Please. I said: Nope, nope. We're gonna keep winning.

Republicans may still like President Trump, but they aren't yet tired of winning not even close. In fact, more Republican and GOP-leaning voters say their side is losing on the issues that matter to them, according to a new poll.

ThePew Research Center poll shows that42 percent of GOP and GOP-leaning voters say their side has been winning more on the important issues, while 46 percent say their side has been losing.

That's better than Democrats, of course, who control nothing in Washington. Just 15 percent of them say they are winning more; 79 percent say they are losing more.

The share of Republicans who say they are winning is pretty subpar. Back in September 2015, 40 percent of Democrats felt they were winning more, vs. 52 percent who felt they were losing that was when much of President Barack Obama's agenda had stalled and the GOP had gained control of Congress. So with full control of Washington, barely more Republicans feel they are winning (42 percent) than Democrats who said the same when they had only the president and four-plus years of Washington gridlock.

I know, I know: When Trump talked about winning so much, he wasn't necessarily talking about in a partisansense. Republicans may feel that America as a whole is winning even if the GOP agenda isn't necessarily notching a bunch of victories, legislatively speaking.

But asking the question in this way is a bit more revealing than asking whether people like or approve of Trump or think the country iswinning. Responses to those questions tend to be dripping with partisanship and draw pretty predictable answers. People don't want to look like they are criticizing a president with whom they share a party affiliation and for whom they may have real affection.

This is more of a measure of bona fide political progress for your side of the debate, and Republicans clearly aren't tired or even a little drowsy of the winning that they've been doing.

And as Philip Bump pointed out this week, there are signs that the GOP base is souring, ever so slightly, on Trump. Just more than half 53 percent of Republicans had a strongly favorable view of him in a new Quinnipiac poll; that's down from a previous low of 62 percent in Quinnipiac's regular polling.

Absent a win on health care or any other major piece of legislation, it's hard to claim that the GOP side has truly been winning much of anything in Washington, at least as far as the issues are concerned.

The question is increasingly when Republicans will get tired oflosing. And that seems to be setting in, at least to some degree, when you dig a little deeper into the polling numbers.

More here:
Republicans aren't tired of winning under Trump. In fact, more think they're losing. - Washington Post

A year after primary victories, moderate Republicans brace for 2018 Wichita Eagle Moderate Republicans in Kansas made national headlines when they ousted a number of conservative lawmakers a year ago, ultimately contributing to the demise of Gov. Sam Brownback's tax cuts. In another year, many will face their first reelection battle.

Visit link:
A year after primary victories, moderate Republicans brace for 2018 - Wichita Eagle

The moment was filled with political pomp and pageantry: Thousands of cheering supporters packed into an arena, a sea of poster board signs and a big announcement.

The Democrats walked away from me, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, standing beside President Trump, told his constituents Thursday night. I cant help you any more being a Democrat.

So, Justice said, the time for change had arrived: Hell be joining the Republican Party a statement that brought a wide smile to Trumps face.

The move by Justice, who on Friday officially changed his political affiliation, continued a trend in recent years that has seen Republicans dominate gubernatorial offices and state legislatures across the country. During the Obama administration, Democrats invested millions of dollars in bolstering organizational efforts in field operations and technology. But so far, it hasn't translated into significant victories at the state level.

With Justices flip, Republicans now hold 34 governorships, matching the partys all-time high in 1922. Moreover, Republicans control both the state legislatures and the governors mansions in 26 states, compared with total Democratic control in six states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. In the other 18 states, power is divided among Republicans and Democrats.

Having control at the state level is vitally important, said Nathan L. Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan group that handicaps congressional and gubernatorial races nationwide. Governors and state legislatures have a strong hand in things like redistricting, which have consequences.

While parties historically lose ground when in control of the White House, Obama, in his two terms, saw losses in gubernatorial and state-level races that outpaced setbacks of his predecessors. In total, Democrats lost 12 governors seats while Obama was in office, compared with nine each for Presidents Bush and Clinton, based on an analysis by the Atlantic. Obama significantly exceeded his predecessors in losing state legislative seats, as Democrats handed over a total of 918 nationwide between 2009 and 2016, the NCSL said.

In a push to make inroads at the state level, former Atty. Gen. Eric H. Holder Jr., with the support of Obama, helped launch the National Democratic Redistricting Committee in January. The group, which consists of members of the Democratic Governors Assn. and Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, aims to help the party win state-level races and, in turn, have an impact on redistricting battles in 2020.

Presidential elections are obviously important, but we lost sight of the fact that if you want to have a representative in Congress, youve got to make sure that you have state legislatures that are drawing districts that will yield a representative in Congress, Holder said in January during a speech before the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning advocacy group based in Washington, D.C.

Rick Tyler, a longtime Republican political strategist who has worked on several state-level campaigns, said that for Trump whose approval numbers hover near 37% and whose support among Republicans is undergoing a slow decline it will be difficult to help his party maintain its advantages in state legislatures and governors offices.

In 2018, for example, Republicans will have to defend 27 of 38 governors seats, with several of those races in states that have a politically diverse electorate.

Its always difficult for the incumbent party that has the presidency to keep seats in state capitols and governors mansions, Tyler said Friday. Its especially difficult when you have a president who often bashes his own party.

In recent days, Trump has assailed Senate Republicans for failing to pass a measure to repeal the Affordable Care Act a key pillar of Trumps presidential campaign last year. Hes also castigated members of his party for passing a bill that places additional sanctions on Russia (though he ultimately signed it).

When you need to rally the troops, that doesnt help, Tyler said. That creates divisions in the party that wont help next year.

On Thursday night, however, Trump lauded Justices flip and shied away from targeting members of his party.

Having Big Jim as a Republican is such an honor, Trump said to deafening applause from those in attendance.

Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, said Justices switch was another blow to the Democrats.

Gov. Justices announcement is just the latest rejection of a party that is leaderless from top to bottom and unable to find a positive, unifying message, she said in a statement.

In West Virginia, Justice, a grain farmer worth nearly $1.6 billion dollars, had been a lifelong Republican. But in 2015, Justice jumped into the gubernatorial race as a Democrat. He bested two primary challengers, then went on to win the general election by 7 percentage points over Republican Bill Cole, a state senator. (He plans to run for reelection this time as a Republican in 2020.)

Last year, the Democratic Governors Assn. doled out $1.5 million to help Justices candidacy. This week, the group was far from pleased.

Jim Justice deceived the voters of West Virginia when he ran as a Democrat eight months ago, Executive Director Elisabeth Pearson said. West Virginians have learned that they simply cant trust Jim Justice.

kurtis.lee@latimes.com

Twitter: @kurtisalee

ALSO

Trump urges officers and immigration officials to be 'rough' on 'animals' terrorizing U.S. neighborhoods

Kris Kobach says Trump's voter fraud panel will keep voter data secure. Some states aren't buying it

President Trump says it's illegal to be registered to vote in two states but he's wrong

Read the rest here:
With party switch in West Virginia, Republicans now have matched record number of governor's seats. Will it last? - Los Angeles Times