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One month before U.S. congressional midterm elections, Republicans believe control of both chambers of Congress is now within their reach.

The outcome of a handful of key Senate races around the country will determine which party controls the Senate next year, and that in turn could have a significant impact on President Barack Obamas final two years in office.

Low public approval ratings for Obama, plus lingering voter concerns about the economy, are setting the stage for a strong Republican showing in the congressional elections on November 4.

Political analyst Charlie Cook said that several Senate Democrats have put distance between themselves and the president in hopes of prevailing in tough races in November.

What are midterm elections about, particularly second term midterm elections? he asked. It is a referendum on the incumbent president. You know, I am going to use a technical political science term here. This is a bummer (bad) environment for Democrats.

Analysts agree Republicans have the political advantage this year just two years after Obama won re-election.

Most experts predict Republicans will either hold or expand their majority in the House of Representatives. The question is will there be enough of a Republican surge in November to gain the six seats they would need to gain a majority in the Senate.

Public opinion analyst Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute said there are too many close Senate races around the country to safely predict if Republicans will win a majority.

Im not sure we are going to see a wave, a big wave that would benefit the Republicans, Bowman said. Clearly they will pick up a few seats in the House. They will pick up seats in the Senate, but whether it will be enough to get control, I think, is premature.

Key Senate seats

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Republicans Confident as Midterm Elections Near

All three major election models give Republicans a six-in-ten (or better) chance of picking up the six seats the party needs to reclaim the Senate majority, with just 29 days left before voters head to the polls on Nov. 4.

The Washington Post's Election Lab is the most bullish on Republicans' chances, pegging it as a 78 percent probability they win control of the chamber. LEO, the New York Times' Upshot model, has the chances at 60 percent -- roughly the same as Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight at 59.4 percent. The overall predictions of Election Lab and FiveThirtyEight are virtually unchanged from a week ago (click here to see how things looked then) while the LEO model is less optimistic about a Republican-controlled Senate this week than it was last week (67 percent probability on Sept. 29.)

Of the 11 marginally competitive contests -- we do not include Republican open seat takeover opportunities (more like virtual certainties) in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia in that category -- all three models agree on nine of the races including four seats that would be additional GOP pickups, bringing their total to seven pickups. Those seats are:

* Alaska: All three forecasts show former state Attorney General Dan Sullivan (R) with between a 68 percent and 77 percent chance of beating Sen. Mark Begich (D).

* Arkansas: The models suggest that Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is increasingly likely to beat Sen. Mark Pryor (D). Both LEO and Election Lab put Cotton's chances over 80 percent.

* Iowa: The models all show state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) as a slight favorite to claim Sen. Tom Harkin's (D) open seat. Both FiveThirtyEight (59 percent Ernst win) and LEO (55 percent) are somewhat guarded in their optimism for the Republican's chance; Election Lab is far more bullish, pegging Ernst with a 76 percent probability of victory.

* Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D) odds of winning reelection continue to get worse. No model has the probability of a Republican takeover lower than 74 percent.

The three models disagree in two states: Kansas and Colorado.

In Kansas, where an NBC/Marist poll released Sunday showed independent candidate Greg Orman with a 10-point edge over Sen. Pat Roberts (R), LEO (64 percent independent) and FiveThirtyEight (65 percent independent) lean toward an Orman victory. Election Lab still gives Roberts a 76 percent chance of winning. (Worth noting: Orman has not said which party he would caucus with if he does win. But he is quite clearly Democrats' best chance of a pickup; none of the models paint an optimistic picture for Democratic hopes in Kentucky or Georgia.)

In Colorado, Election Lab (70 percent Republican) and, more narrowly, FiveThirtyEight (53 percent) see Rep. Cory Gardner (R) as the favorite. LEO basically rates the race a pure toss-up, but gives the slightest of edges -- 51 percent chance of victory -- to Sen. Mark Udall (D).

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