Archive for the ‘Republicans’ Category

Republicans Go for a Win in Name Only – Bloomberg

Going nowhere.

The health-care bill thatsqueaked through the House and is now beginning to possibly move through the Senate had a lot of problems, but at least it had a plausible plan to get through Congress and become a law. The financial-regulation bill the House will consider today(to "repeal" the Dodd-Frank Act) has no plan, and no apparent possibility of going anywhere beyond the House. It will presumably pass ona straight party-line vote, with every Democrat voting against it.

Which means it will run smack-dab into a Senate filibuster and (if the Senate leadership bothered to bring it to the floor, which seems unlikely) fall at least eight votes short of the 60 needed to overcome that tactic.

A daily round-up of superb political insights.

Jonathan Bernstein's Early Returns

As I've said before, we should think of this as a choice: House Republicans prefer the symbolic win of passing something that goes nowhere to the hard work of constructing a law, which sometimes requiresbipartisan support. And they do so (at least in part) because, on the one hand, their voters (and the Republican-aligned media their voters listen to) love symbolic actions and are indifferent to winning incremental substantive battles; on the other hand, Republican-aligned groups don't demand substantive gains. The former is perhaps best explained by the theory that Republicans are in important ways an ideological party, as Matt Grossmann and Dave Hopkins explain. The latter -- groups organized around common economic interests that are willing to settle for symbolic victories -- is a complete mystery, at least to me.

1. Marc Lynch at the Monkey Cage on Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

2. "Comey is describing here conduct that a society committed to the rule of law simply cannot accept in a president." That'sBenjamin Wittes at Lawfare.

3. Greg Sargent on the tactics available to Senate Republicans on their health-care bill. Very helpful.

4. Brian Beutler suggests Democrats should supply the votes needed to avoid default -- in exchange for abolishing the debt limit for good.

5. Good Nate Cohn item on why Democrats don't have to win this year's special electionsto have a good chance of winning a House majority next year.

6. And why does Arizona have Confederate monuments to take down, anyway? Antonia Noori Farzan reports that most of them were only erected in the last two decades. Sort of amazing to me, since I grew up there before at least some people tried to turn the state into a hotbed of the Confederacy.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story: Jonathan Bernstein at jbernstein62@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Brooke Sample at bsample1@bloomberg.net

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Republicans Go for a Win in Name Only - Bloomberg

Republican voters sticking with Trump ahead of James Comey … – Washington Examiner

ROSWELL, Ga. Republicans set to vote in a crucial special congressional election are sticking by President Trump and Karen Handel, the GOP nominee, unmoved by the daily drumbeat of scandal from the White House.

In interviews Wednesday, Republicans in this upscale Atlanta suburb said they weren't concerned about the Senate testimony of James Comey or implications that Trump acted improperly in firing him as FBI director because of a desire to kill an investigation into his possible Russia ties.

Although there is lingering discomfort with Trump's habit of opining and picking fights on Twitter, staunch Republicans here generally view the president as a Washington outsider who is learning on the job and will get better.

They expect he'll have more bumps in the road in the months ahead, but that isn't diminishing their support for him or, significantly, Handel, who is running to fill the area's vacant House seat in a toss-up campaign.

"He could tone down the tweets and put more emphasis on the issues. But the issues that he's pushing forward are issues I support," said Bob Anderson, 70, who voted for Ohio Gov. John Kasich in Georgia's 2016 Republican presidential primary. "I don't think that there's any pro-Russian agenda on the part of the Trump administration, and I think that's been demonstrated so far."

Comey was scheduled to testify Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee about the circumstances surrounding Trump's decision to dismiss him as FBI director.

In his opening statement publicized Wednesday, Comey suggested that Trump acted improperly in urging him to drop an investigation into Michael Flynn, a top Trump campaign surrogate and the president's former national security adviser, over his contacts with Russian officials.

That ongoing saga has engulfed Washington, and Trump's national approval ratings have taken a hit. Republicans working to elect Handel are concerned. Trump won the 6th Congressional District by only 1.5 points, even as Tom Price, now Health and Human Services secretary, was elected with more than 60 percent.

Indeed, Democrat Jon Ossoff narrowly led Handel in the latest polling averages with less than two weeks to go until the June 20 election. An Ossoff victory would send shockwaves through Washington. This suburban district, white collar, traditionally Republican but skeptical of Trump, is the sort Democrats have to win in 2018 to have a shot at a House takeover.

But traditional and reliable GOP voters remain satisfied with Trump and are motivated to participate, even though they would prefer more action from the Republican majorities on Capitol Hill. They're lining up behind Handel. Many, like Marie Shubert, 79, cast their vote early.

"She's a Republican, and we need all the help we can get in Washington," said Shubert, who backed Trump in the 2016 primary. "President Trump is doing OK. He's doing, as a matter of fact, very well. He's getting a lot of things done that are good for the country good for us. The Congress not so much. I'm very disappointed."

"They're taking so long with everything," she added. "Just like this Obamacare. I'm so disappointed because they had 10 years to fix it, and they always said they would fix it, and they always said they had a bill, but in the end they didn't."

The Washington Examiner spoke with a collection of Republican voters Wednesday afternoon while tagging along with a field canvasser volunteering in Roswell for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the GOP super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

The wealthy community, with homes ranging from more than $100,000 to more than $1 million, is situated in the more conservative, northern end of the 6th District, which has been held by the GOP for four decades.

Fidelity to the Republican Party in this area is not surprising. The voters here are conservative and established, as compared with the more moderate Republican transplants to the area who live closer to downtown Atlanta.

But it's notable.

These are not the poor, thinly educated working-class voters so often associated as unshakably loyal to Trump. They own well-appointed homes, built on large lots adjacent to leafy streets.

As with the blue-collar voters credited with propelling Trump to victory in November, ethical clouds surrounding Comey's firing and the Russia investigation haven't diminished their enthusiasm for Trump and the potential they see in him.

Nearly five months in, Brenda Jimmerson, 70, gives Trump a grade of "middle of the road."

"But he's not a politician," she said. "It's his first time in office. He went into it for what I consider to be the right reasons. And if everybody that takes a new job starts out perfectly takes a new job, I would be surprised."

Jimmerson's main complaint? "Some of his tweets need to be contained," she said.

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Republican voters sticking with Trump ahead of James Comey ... - Washington Examiner

With Republicans, Trump in Charge, Farmers Ponder New Farm Bill – Voice of America

BLOOMINGTON, IL

As he works to get his crops planted, the weather keeps Illinois farmer Gerald Thompson in his fields during the day.

Worrying about the political direction of his country is what often keeps him up at night.

To me, we are in such a dysfunctional state, he said as he stands between his green John Deere tractor and the planter attached to it that help him get his seeds into the ground.

Worried about Congress

Thompson says he is not upset with President Donald Trump, the candidate he voted for in the 2016 general election.

I think Trump is a good businessman and hell see the value in what agriculture has to offer, he said.

But Thompson is among a majority of Americans who disapprove of the performance of the U.S. Congress.

Until we get rid of 90 percent of the politicians, put in term limits and put people there that actually go to work for the right reasons, were going to have problems, he told VOA.

Agricultural Act of 2014

The 2016 presidential election was largely shaped by rural and working class voters in a part of the country sometimes called flyover country, the interior of America where many felt overlooked by their elected lawmakers. What fuels a large part of the economy in flyover country, where Thompsons home and farmland are located in rural Bellflower, Illinois, is agriculture. Here, the Agricultural Act of 2014, the most recent Farm Bill, is a key piece of legislation.

Its provided somewhat of a safety net, Thompson said.

The Farm Bill is the single biggest piece of legislation that impacts his livelihood, and Thompson knows that the politicians he is critical of now will be the ones he will have to depend on to craft a new Farm Bill by 2018.

The Farm Bill that became law in 2014 provided nearly $500 billion of federal funding overall.

Eighty percent of the farm bill is food and nutrition programs and rural development, Thompson said, referring to the U.S. Governments SNAP or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly called the Food Stamp Program that provides assistance to millions with little or no income. Twenty percent of the total amount of the Farm Bill goes to farmers, Thompson said.

Direct payments

Part of that assistance includes reimbursement for certain conservation efforts and assistance with securing crop insurance. In previous Farm Bills, much of what farmers received was by direct payments.

The amount of dollars that come back to us in the form of direct payments is so insignificant today as a percent of our total budget, it needs to be gotten away with, in my opinion, because I believe its a political challenge for us to defend that, Thompson said.

The last Farm Bill significantly cut those direct payments, instead subsidizing and expanding crop insurance.

So far the loss of direct payments hasnt been that big of a deal, said Kirkwood, Illinois, farmer Wendell Shauman. Time will tell. We ebb and flow in this. Back in the 80s it was a huge deal. Basically our income was what we got from the government. Thats a sad time in agriculture and we certainly dont want to go back to that situation again.

While Shauman agrees with ending direct payments, it could have provided recent relief.

Supplies are high, prices low

Were buried in corn and beans, prices are so low. The farm economys been so bad I think this will be the fourth year in a row where farm income has gone down, he said.

Shauman is in a race against time, and the weather, to get the last of his soybeans planted. As he steadily guides his tractor through dusty fields he hopes will produce abundant corn and soybeans later this year, he is just as concerned about the crops he harvested last year, which are stored in his grain bins.

The price has been so low, so long, people have held on hoping its going to get better, he told VOA. And in the last couple of weeks its gotten even worse.

The price of corn today is just less than $4 a bushel, down from a high of more than $8 a bushel at the peak of the drought in 2012. While the current price is higher than average over the last 50 years, thats no solace to struggling farmers.

The difference today is the cost of production we incur is so much greater that even though we are at historically high levels, our margins are still very, very thin, Gerald Thompson said. They look to project this years net farm income to be about half of what it was four years ago.

Stagnant grain prices, high quantities in storage, and no direct Farm Bill payments form the basis of the agricultural landscape lawmakers and farmers face as they begin negotiating a new Farm Bill. Despite the economic outlook, Shauman expects further cuts.

Politically, we have very little clout, Shauman said.

Bad weather could be good

But Thomson says the lack of clout in Washington isnt the biggest issue for him.

Your biggest risk factor is something you have no control over, which is the weather, he said as he battled the dust and heat to finish the last of his major tasks of getting his corn and soybeans planted.

But in a twist of irony, bad weather could be the thing that helps farmers.

A short crop this year and it wouldnt have to be a terribly short crop would raise the price considerably, he said.

But just like the weather, a short crop isnt something Wendell Shauman can count on. But he hopes the Farm Bill is, which is why he wants whatever legislation to take shape by 2018 ultimately help keep him in business when everything else a farmer cant control is working against him.

More here:
With Republicans, Trump in Charge, Farmers Ponder New Farm Bill - Voice of America

Kansas Republicans raise taxes, ending their GOP governor’s ‘real live experiment’ in conservative policy – Washington Post

Republicans in Kansasbroke ranks with the state's conservative governor Tuesday night, voting to raise tax rates and put an end to a series of cuts.

TheGOPrevolt isa defeat for Gov. Sam Brownback, who overhauled the state's tax system beginning in 2012,part of whatcalled a "real-live experiment" in conservative governance. Yet the economic boom Brownback promised has not materialized, leavingthe state government perennially short on money and forcedto reduce basic services.

Kansas's legislature is overwhelmingly Republican, but moderate GOP lawmakers joined with Democratsto override Brownback's veto of the bill to increase taxes. Eighteen of the state's 31 GOP senators and 49 of the 85 Republican members of the House voted against the governor.

Tuesday's vote was a rebuke not only for Brownback, but also for Republicansin Washington who have advocated similar cuts in taxes at the national level -- includingPresident Trump. Although Republicans in Kansas are giving up on the experiment, Trump and his alliesare hoping totry again.

The principles Trump endorsed during the campaignand in the early stages of his presidency arebroadly similar to those enacted in Kansas.As Brownback did, Trump has proposed bringing down marginal rates, getting rid of brackets andgiving a new break to small businesses.

That is no coincidence, since Brownbackis well connected to the Republican policymaking establishment in Washington.Trump and Brownback have shared economic advisers, andwhen Brownback was a U.S. senator, Rep. Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), now the speaker of the House,served as his legislative director.

The victory for Brownback's opponents resulted in part from their gains in last year's election. Voters -- frustrated that public schools were closing early and the state's highways were in visible disrepair -- rejected Brownback's allies in favor of more moderate Republicans or Democrats.

"It was a hard vote for a lot of people to make last night," said Rep. Melissa Rooker, a moderate Republican who represents a suburb of Kansas City. "Kansas has had a turn to the far right, and we seem to be centering ourselves."

The legislationundoes the essentialcomponents of Brownback's reforms. The governor had reduced the number ofbrackets for the state's marginalrates on income from three to two. The legislature will restore the third bracket, increasing taxes on the state's wealthiest residents from 4.6 percent to 5.2 percentthis year and 5.7 percent next year.

Marginal rates on less affluent Kansanhouseholds will increase as well, from 4.6 percent to 5.25 percent by next year for married taxpayers makingbetween $30,000 and $60,000 a year and from 2.7 percent to 3.1 percent for those earning less than that.

Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R) spoke at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 23, and pushed for less government regulations. "When have we added more government anywhere that's taken more taxes and you end up with a product that's more efficient that costs you less?" he asked. "What's your example?" (The Washington Post)

The legislationalso scraps a plan to bring those rates down even more in future years,one of Brownback's promises to conservative supporters.

Finally, the legislatureeliminated a cut Brownback had put in place to help small businesses. Analysts said thatthe provision had becomea loophole, as many Kansans were able to avoid paying taxes entirely by pretending to be small businesses.

Initially, the state forecast thatabout 200,000 small businesseswould take advantage of the break. As it turned out, about 330,000entities would useKansas's new rule. Thatdiscrepancysuggests that tens of thousands ofworkers claimed that their incomes were from businesses they owned rather than from salaries.

State budget analysts project the tax increase will raise an additional $600 million annually.

"What we were able to do in the last 24 hours can allow us to start down that road, to begin repairing all the damage done after living with Gov. Brownback's failed tax experiment for five years," said Annie McKay, who is the president of Kansas Action for Children, anadvocacy group in Topeka.

The Trump administration unveiled their proposal to overhaul the tax code on April 26, outlining sharply lower tax rates but fewer tax breaks. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

Proponents argued that reducing taxes would stimulate the state's economy. "We have worked hard in Kansas to move our tax policy to a pro-growth orientation," Brownback said in a statement on vetoing the legislation. "This bill undoes much of that progress. It will substantially damage job creation and leave our citizens poorer in the future."

Since 2012, however, the pace of economic expansion in Kansas has consistently lagged behind that of the rest of the country.

Last year,Kansas's gross domestic product increased just 0.2 percent, federal data show, compared to 1.6 percent nationally. That was an improvementfor Kansas, though:At the end of2015, the state was in what many economists would describe as a recession, with the economycontracting two quarters in a row.

Last year's election substantially weakened Brownback's support in the legislature. In November, Democrats picked upa seat in the Senate, which has 40 members, and 12 seats in the House, which has 125. In primary elections in August, Republican voters had forced out 14incumbent alliesof the governor, replacing them with more moderate candidates.

OtherGOP lawmakers who supported Brownback retired last year, and moderate Republicans won a few of those seats as well. Rooker, the GOP legislator, said her former colleagues werenot eager to confront frustrated voters in another campaign, or to deal with the fiscalheadaches Brownback's policies had created if they did win reelection.

The legislature began this year's session with the government in a deficit of $350 million.

"People expect us to take care of business efficiently and appropriately," Rooker said. "I just think it was the pressure building. Something had to be done."

"The elections reflected a mood in Kansas that possibly Kansas politics had shifted too far to the right," said Rep. Don Hineman, a moderate Republican who represents a rural district in western Kansas. "It was time to return to a more centrist position, which is where Kansas has traditionally been governed from."

For the past several years, legislative sessions have been protracted as lawmakers have struggled to find solutions to the state's fiscal woes. That pattern continued this year, and Hineman hopes that with the tax increase enacted, lawmakers can finally leave Topeka this weekend.

On Saturday, he hopes to head back to hisfamily's farm, which his son operates. This week, they are putting in grain sorghum. "Im anxious to get back home, and my son is anxious for me to be home, because he would like to have me on the tractor," Hineman said.

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Kansas Republicans raise taxes, ending their GOP governor's 'real live experiment' in conservative policy - Washington Post

Make no mistake. Republicans can still succeed in destroying Obamacare. – Washington Post (blog)

The Congressional Budget Office has released its score on the revised American Health Care Act. Here's what's in the report. (Daron Taylor/The Washington Post)

THE MORNING PLUM:

In recent days, a procession of GOP senators has paraded forth and declared in somber tones that the effort to repeal and replace Obamacare may be failing. Mitch McConnell, the GOP Senate leader from Kentucky, recently said he didnt see a path yet. Or, as GOP Sen. Lindsey O. Graham put it:I just dont think we can put it together among ourselves.

But some Democratic Senate aides dont buy it. With a Senate vote now expected this month, they are bracing for several scenarios in which Republicans produce surprise tactics at the last minute that enable them to pass something. This would then get them through to the next stage negotiations between the House and Senate which would have the virtue of increasing the pressure on reluctant holdouts to pass the final bill, pulling the trigger and destroying the Affordable Care Act for good.

One such scenario involves writing a bill that defers dealing with some of the tough details just to get through to conference committee, where the Senate and House bills would be reconciled, a Democratic aide tells me. In this rendering, the aide says, McConnell puts together something very limited to go to conference, putting off hard decisions until the final bill is written with the White House at the table.

Right now, Republicans face several obstacles. One is that some senators from states that have expanded Medicaid there are 20 GOP senators from such states are balking at the Medicaid cuts in the House bill. The measure that passed the House would cut more than $800 billion from Medicaid and restructure the program to transfer more control to the states (which means more cuts and more draconian conditions, and fewer covered) and do away with the ACAs Medicaid expansion. Senate Republicans are mulling a version that would roll back the Medicaid expansion a bit more slowly. This would create a smoother glide path,claims Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), in a bit of very smooth rhetoric that glides over the likelihood that the Senate version will still cut Medicaid for untold numbers of poor people.

Senate Republicans are also mulling subsidies that are somewhat more generous than the House bill (which overall would leave 23 million additional people uninsured, according to the Congressional Budget Office). And Axios reports that the Senate version might also soften the House bill by allowing states to waive the requirement that insurers cover essential health benefits while not allowing them to waive the prohibition on jacking up premiums for people with preexisting conditions, a provision in the House bill. But we simply dont know what the Senate bill will look like just yet.

Democratic aides are preparing for several tactics that Senate Republicans could employ toget moderates to support the bill. One is to create a placeholder or shell bill that does not work out too many details of the Medicaid cuts, allowing moderates to say they will protect Medicaid in conference negotiations, a senior Democratic aide tells me. If they try this route, Democrats will absolutely hold every single Republican senator accountable for that vote, the aide says. Republicans will be voting to dismantle our health-care system, and well make sure people understand that.

Republicans are dead-set on getting to 50 votes so they can jam some version of Trumpcare through the Senate,Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) told me in an emailed statement. So Democrats are looking at every possible scenario.

Conceptually, they could leave unaddressed many of the details of the Medicaid cuts and work them out in conference, Sarah Binder, a congressional expert at George Washington University, tells me, while cautioning that this is speculative. They can deal with a vague Senate provision and a detailed House provision in conference.

A second scenario might be to insert language into the bill that obfuscates its true legislative impact. They could put language in the bill that would make a political statement about, say, protecting those with preexisting conditions, even as the policy consequences would be different, Binder says. Or, Binder suggests, it could include weaselly language on Medicaid cuts, such as: Nothing in this bill should be construed to limit people entitled under the law to Medicaid coverage. Binder explains: The goal would be to insulate themselves from criticism that they are throwing people off Medicaid.

Of course, all of this is a reminder of a basic fact about this whole debate: The GOPs massively regressive designs on the ACA which at bottom constitute rolling back health coverage for untold millions of people to finance a huge tax cut for the rich are deeply unpopular. By exposing those true designs to the public, this debate has succeeded in making Obamacare more popular and has underscored public opposition to rolling back the historic coverage expansion it has achieved, despite all its real flaws and need for improvement.

And so, the CBO could do serious damage to any such GOP tactic by releasing a score of the Senate bill (when it is done) that shines a harsh light on what the bill would actually do. But Andy Slavitt, a former acting administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in the Obama administration, unleashed a tweet storm pointing out that, by keeping their bill behind closed doors for as long as possible, Republicans might limit the time that the public and the press have to absorb the CBO scores implications before holding a vote.

The bottom line is that whatever tactics Republicans use, if they can get something passed in the Senate, and get Senate and House Republicans into some form of negotiations designed to reconcile the two versions, the prospects of final success go up substantially.

The virtue of getting everyone into the same room is to get them out of the public eye, where they can come to a final agreement that then would be put to an up or down vote in both chambers, Binder tells me, adding that at that point, the situation would be, this is it: Are you for or against getting rid of Obamacare? This would increase the pressure on individual Republicans who are skittish. To be sure, its possible that Republicans could still fail. But success is also a very real possibility.

* COMEY FEARED BEING LEFT ALONE WITH TRUMP: The New York Times reports that then-FBI Director James B. Comey privately told Attorney General Jeff Sessions that he didnt want to be left alone with President Trump, after the president pushed him to end the Michael Flynn probe:

His unwillingness to be alone with the president reflected how deeply Mr. Comey distrusted Mr. Trump, who Mr. Comey believed was trying to undermine the F.B.I.s independence as it conducted a highly sensitive investigation into links between Mr. Trumps associates and Russia, the officials said. Current and former law enforcement officials say Mr. Comey kept his interactions with Mr. Trump a secret in part because he was not sure whom at the Justice Department he could trust.

That last bit previews how Comey will probably answer questions at tomorrows hearing about why he did not disclose his concerns earlier about Trumps efforts to influence the probe.

* COMEY WILL REFUTE TRUMP: CNN reports that at the hearing, Comey will refute Trumps claim that Comey repeatedly told him he is not under investigation:

One source said Comey is expected to explain to senators that those were much more nuanced conversations from which Trump concluded that he was not under investigation. Another source hinted that the President may have misunderstood the exact meaning of Comeys words, especially regarding the FBIs ongoing counterintelligence investigation.

Trump would neverbotch or distort the nuances of an extremely consequential conversation involving his own culpability. Would he?

* WHY TRUMP TURNED ON SESSIONS: It has been widely reported that Trump has grown furious with Sessions after he recused himself from the Russia probe. The Wall Street Journal adds a telling detail:

He privately berated several top aides in the Oval Office after learning of Mr. Sessions recusal, and he has since then repeatedly expressed frustration about that decision, one White House official said. The president, who has denied any involvement with Russias alleged hacking of Democratic and other political organizations during the election, viewed Mr. Sessions decision as a sign of weakness, the official said.

A sign of weakness! As I suggested yesterday, Trump, in true autocratic fashion, simply cannot brook any prioritization of process and law over loyalty to Trump.

* GET READY FOR DAN COATSS TESTIMONY TODAY: The Post reports that Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats has told associates that Trump asked him to intervene to get Comey to back off the probe of Michael Flynns Russia ties:

After the encounter, Coats discussed the conversation with other officials and decided that intervening with Comey as Trump had suggested would be inappropriate, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters.

Coats is set to testify today before the Senate Intelligence Committee, and hell surely be asked for more details on why he viewed Trumps intervention as inappropriate.

* LARGE MAJORITY GETS WHY TRUMP FIRED COMEY: A new Post-ABC News poll finds that 61 percent say Trump fired Comey to protect himself, rather than for the good of the country. Fifty-sixpercent say Trump is not cooperating with probes into Russian meddling. But:

Large majorities of Republicans say Trump fired Comey for the good of the country (71 percent) and that he is cooperating with investigations into Russias election influence (77 percent).

Also: 55 percent have low trust in what Comey is saying about all this, but an even higher 72 percent distrust what Trump is saying, so Comey may have the credibility edge tomorrow.

* DEMOCRATIC PARTY ID ADVANTAGE EXPANDS: Gallup finds the Democratic advantage in party identification over Republicans has grown, with 45 percent self-identifying as Dems or Dem-leaners, while 38 percent self-identify as Republicans or GOP-leaners:

The growing Democratic advantage in recent months is mostly attributable to a decline in Republican affiliation rather than an increase in Democratic affiliation. Since November, the percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners has fallen four percentage points, while there has been a one-point rise in Democratic identification or leaning.

Gallup adds that Trumps unpopularity may be a key factor in the drop in people self-identifying as Republicans, and that this could boost Dem chances in 2018.

* AND THE QUOTE OF THE DAY, KINSLEY-GAFFE EDITION: At last nights debate in the special election for a House seat in the Atlanta suburbs, GOP candidate Karen Handel answered a question about the minimum wage this way:

This is an example of a fundamental difference between a liberal and a conservative. I do not support a livable wage.

A Kinsley Gaffe, for you young uns out there, refers to Michael Kinsleys well-known formulation that a gaffe is when apolitician tells some obvious truth he isnt supposed to say.

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Make no mistake. Republicans can still succeed in destroying Obamacare. - Washington Post (blog)