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If the results of the New Hampshire primary tell us anything, it is that the Republican Party is facing a divide between the two key voter groups it needs to win in November its partisan base and the voters most likely to tip the general election, independents.

There are two ways of looking at the final results of the primary one that gives us some insight on the remaining primaries and Trumps advantage and one that sheds light on the general election and Haleys advantage.

First, the rest of the primary season. Tuesdays primary election was a clear victory for the former president, one that has put him on the trajectory to winning the Republican nomination. Overall, he won the state by 11 percentage points, 54 percent to 43 percent (with 95 percent of votes in), and performed well, based on the Edison Research preliminary exit poll results (updated at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday), with key groups that will make up the critical component of future primaries.

Trump won voters who identified as Republicans 50 percent of the primary electorate by a large margin, 74 percent to 25 percent. Conservative voters made up 67 percent of the electorate; Trump won them, 71 percent to 27 percent. In terms of education, Trump won voters without a college degree a group that comprised 52 percent of the overall vote by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.

Finally, white evangelical or white born-again Christians went for Trump 70 percent to 26 percent. His level of performance with these groups certainly bodes well for Trump in the upcoming primaries.

Take South Carolina, for example, the next big primary state after Nevada. In the 2016 primary, the electorate was 81 percent conservative and 67 percent were white evangelical or born-again Christians. Haley has her work cut out for her in her home state.

Still, Trumps New Hampshire victory was closer than expected. The RealClearPolitics average on Tuesday showed him leading Haley by 19 percentage points. The last three polls in the RCP average going into the primary, however, showed the average lead at 24 points. The final results fell short of that.

Now looking at the general. For Haley, her performance overall in New Hampshire outpaced expectations and she was the clear winner with key voter groups critical in going beyond the Republican base to win the general election. Haley handily won independents, who made up 44 percent of the electorate, by 58 percent to 39 percent. Similarly, moderates, 28 percent of the electorate, voted for Haley by 72 percent to 25 percent.

She also won voters with college Bachelors degrees or higher by 56-42 percent, a group that plays an important role in the general election.

Haleys strength with independents would bode well for the general election and the party. In the last couple of elections, Republicans have struggled to win these voters. In 2018, Republicans lost them by 12 points, 42 percent to 54 percent, which cost Republicans the House. In 2020, Trump lost Independents by 13 points, 41 percent to 54 percent, and the White House.

In 2022, Republicans lost Independents by two points, 47 percent to 49 percent, the reason the expected red wave didnt happen, despite a historic party identification advantage of plus-3 percentage points over Democrats. To win this November, Republicans also need to do better with moderate voters who Trump lost in 2020 by 30 points, 34 percent to 64 percent, and who Republicans lost by 15 points in 2022.

Analyzing the primary voters top four issues, we see a similar dichotomy between the candidates, with Trump stronger in the primaries, while Haley showed a potential advantage in the general. The top issue for Republicans was the economy (40 percent) followed by immigration (37 percent). Among those who said immigration, Trump won them 86 percent to 14 percent, and among the economy voters, he won them 67 percent to 33 percent.

For independents, the top issue was the economy, at 36 percent, with immigration at 23 percent. Like Republicans, independents who chose immigration went with Trump by 67 percent to 31 percent. However, Haley won independents who chose the economy, by 54 percent to 40 percent.

The exit poll also asked whether voters would be satisfied or dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination and asked the same question for Haley. Overall for Trump, 61 percent said satisfied and 38 percent said dissatisfied. For Haley, it was 51 percent satisfied and 47 percent dissatisfied.

Among Republicans, the result for Trump was 80 percent satisfied and 19 dissatisfied, while for Haley it was 41 percent satisfied and 57 dissatisfied. This is clearly an advantage for Trump in the upcoming primaries but perhaps not for the general.

Asked about Trump, 45 percent of independents said they would be satisfied, but 54 percent said they would be dissatisfied. On the other hand, 61 percent said they would be satisfied with Haley and 37 percent dissatisfied. Once again, we see a divide that gives Trump an advantage in the primaries but Haley with a potential stronger standing in the general election.

Going forward, both candidates have challenges. The exit poll asked voters if they would still find Trump fit to be president if convicted. Overall, 54 percent said yes and 42 percent said no.

There was a clear difference, however, between Republicans and independents on this question.

Among Republicans, 72 percent said yes and 26 percent said no. Of those who said yes, Trump won them, 91 percent to 9 percent. In contrast, only 38 percent of independents said yes, while 58 percent said no. This result strongly suggests that for the primary environment, this issue is less challenging for Trump, but clearly could be quite problematic in the fall.

While outperforming expectations, for Haley, losing New Hampshire by double digits still was a loss. At some point, she has to put a win on the board. The fact that voters who decided their vote in January representing 41 percent of the vote, including the majority of independents went for Haley, 64 percent to 33 percent, is a positive for her. Haleys clear challenge is to turn her recent momentum into more than just closing the gap.

The bottom line is that both candidates have positives and negatives coming out of the New Hampshire primary. Trump, having now won both Iowa and New Hampshire, is in a strong position; however Haley did close the gap.

For the party, holding the base while reaching out to independents must be job one.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.

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For Republicans, two outcomes from the New Hampshire primary - Roll Call

It seems Republicans are now more open to partnering with Fetterman on policy because of his recent party-bucking.

It certainly makes it more appealing to want to work with him on things if you see this independent streak, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of Fettermans recent remarks.

No grand partnerships have sprung up on legislation just yet. But the mere fact that Republicans view him in those terms is a statement on Fettermans political evolution.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who frustrated many in his own party with his months-long blockade of military promotions, lauded Fetterman as someone who speaks his own mind and doesnt follow the party line. Tuberville added that its easier to talk, carry on a conversation, with a political opponent whos open-minded.

Many Senate Republicans are ready to take a new look at John Fetterman. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Its unclear whether Fetterman can, or even wants to, leverage his new niche as a Democrat who Republicans can tolerate possibly even like into a productive role as a Senate dealmaker. Its a disappearing typecast: Sens. Mitt Romneys (R-Utah) and Joe Manchins (D-W.Va.) imminent retirements are hollowing out the chambers small but influential bloc of aisle-crossing negotiators, and that void could grow if Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) also passes on reelection.

But Fettermans voting record remains staunchly in line with the rest of his party. In a brief interview for this story, the first-term senator didnt express explicit interest in taking on more partnerships with the GOP but he didnt rule it out, either. Fetterman even argued that Republicans who have personally praised his recent remarks on the border and Israel shouldnt be so shocked.

Outside of Philadelphia, they have these gigantic billboards, where it was like, Fetterman = open border ... it just turns out that its all bullshit, Fetterman said in an interview, referring to Republicans 2022 campaign attacks on him. And I would have thought that professionals would have realized that most of it is all bullshit.

Just over a year ago, Senate Republicans were working hard to brand Fetterman as a younger version of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) an actual democratic socialist who was unfit for office. Over the past three months, however, Fetterman showed a side of his ideology that seemed to genuinely startle his GOP colleagues.

Not only did he vocally defend Israel in its war against Hamas, as Sanders and other liberal leaders suggested curbs on U.S. aid, Fetterman defended bipartisan talks on stricter border policies that slow the flow of migrants into the U.S. And he bucked his own leadership by calling for the expulsion of a fellow Democrat, indicted New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez.

Hes not in lockstep with the progressives in his party I dont know if hes had an epiphany or exactly whats going on, but [its] obviously gotten a lot of peoples attention, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

In fact, Fetterman has repeatedly stressed he is not a progressive. Yet core elements of his political persona remain very much in line with the left: He wants to abolish the filibuster; he wants universal health care, though hes not embraced Sanders flagship Medicare for all slogan; he still dons hoodies in the staid Senate, reveling in the establishments alarm at his casual garb.

On the campaign trail, Fetterman even quipped that he might let down centrist-leaning Joe Manchin Democrats, nudging members of his party to vote like Democrats. When it comes to votes during his first year in office, hes stayed true to that watchword rarely straying from the party line.

Taking the man as a whole, many Senate Republicans are ready to take a new look at Fetterman.

I know from politics, my own race, that not everything people say about you is actually true, said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who added that Fetterman has said some smart things over the past few months, particularly about the border. The two first-term senators have worked together on rail safety legislation that Vance still hopes will pass this year.

Fetterman has also cosponsored several agriculture-focused bills alongside Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who credited the Pennsylvanian for bucking Biden and everybody else on immigration. The administration has also been open to bipartisan border talks.

Even off the Hill, Fetterman has won praise from Republicans, including two current GOP Senate candidates. Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), whos seeking a comeback in the upper chamber, has said he likes Fetterman. Dave McCormick, whos hoping to take on Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) next fall, said hes been surprised by Fetterman and that he thinks the Democrat has moral clarity on the border and Israel.

Still, Fettermans new GOP fans are also curbing their enthusiasm for him. Cramer argued that Fetterman leans liberal on most issues, saying that his views are largely left, in some cases very left. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said he appreciated Fetterman sticking to his guns on the border and Israel but pushed back on any suggestion that the Democrat is on an all-out independent streak.

Kennedy also indicated that Republicans shouldnt let Fettermans metamorphosis matter too much.

Just because somebody agrees or disagrees with you doesnt mean you ought to like or dislike them, he said. You should respect differences of opinion.

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Republicans are suddenly excited to work with John Fetterman - POLITICO - POLITICO

The restraint from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue signals the White House is still hopeful that a deal could be struck.

On the Hill, negotiators spent a frantic day trying to salvage talks after it was reported on late Wednesday that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was bowing to Trumps desires to dissolve a border deal.

The following day, McConnell clarified he still supports pursuing border security linked to Ukraine funding, though he and other top Republicans werent able to entirely assuage murmurs that a deal is on its deathbed.

Late Thursday, Trump released a statement saying the nation is better off not making a deal unless its perfect, and he called the current Senate effort meaningless.

A border deal now would be another gift to the radical left Democrats. They need it politically, but dont care about our border, he said.

Democrats were quick to accuse Trump of trying to perpetuate a crisis at the border for political gain in the election. Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison earlier Thursday slammed Trump and Republicans for sabotaging efforts to address issues at the border. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee said Senate Republicans are tanking a border deal for political reasons.

But the White House didnt join the chorus.

Privately, officials said they felt it was too early and would be imprudent to jump into the fray. They closely followed the trickle of reports about what exactly McConnell said inside the room. Still hopeful for a deal in the Senate, officials felt that any political response from them would be leveraged by Republicans to scuttle whatever possibility was left to forge an agreement.

We believe that there needs to be action on the border. That we need to come together on common sense compromise on border measures and border policy and border resources, Dalton said. And we still are hopeful that that can happen.

The monthslong border talks have been a headache for the White House. The administration has tried to find a middle ground between Republicans and Democrats, all while the border faces record pressure and cities across the country struggle to manage an influx of migrants.

The election year timing only complicates the matter, with Trump now looking like a surefire GOP nominee. And for that reason, other Democrats have not been so quiet as the former president grows more public in his desire to see a more conservative final bill or nothing at all.

This is a party that is a complete mess to the point where the party leadership is explicitly saying in ways that are designed to leak that their presumptive nominee is trying to essentially prevent the Senate and the House from solving problems so that he can have more problems to run on, said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, in an interview.

While the White House so far engaged Senate Republicans on border talks, it has not been shy in attacking House GOP leadership, which has stressed its own opposition to a bipartisan deal.

Biden aides know a Senate deal is likely dead on arrival in the House, according to two people familiar with the White Houses thinking, granted anonymity to speak privately about conversations with administration officials. Not only will border legislation face opposition from the GOP caucus, but progressives have also threatened to vote against sweeping changes to asylum law.

And so, administration officials are moving to put blame for inaction on that chamber.

They have been laser focused on getting a deal through the Senate, which they believe will demonstrate Bidens ability to reach bipartisan agreement and his eagerness to address the border problem. After that, the presidents team plans to rail against House Republicans for dragging their feet.

They want to get a deal out of the Senate, one of the people said, even though they know its dead so they can pick a fight with House Republicans.

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White House stays the course on border talks despite Trump's interference - POLITICO

It was definitely not a good night for Donald Trump, Mike Madrid, a California GOP strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said.

By most metrics, the path to [stopping Trump] has become much clearer, Madrid said. The anti-Trump lane is discernible. Its palpable. Its big. Its something that we can work with in a real, meaningful way.

On the surface, the results from Iowa and New Hampshire look just plain bad for the anti-Trump movement. A former president facing 91 criminal charges and splitting his time between the courtroom and the campaign trail won over 50 percent of the vote in both states. In New Hampshire, where the GOP field quickly shrunk to two, independent voters, whose exit polls showed broke overwhelmingly for Haley, were trumped by Trumps GOP base.

The next two contests offer even less hope for impeding Trumps march toward the nomination. Haley is not competing for delegates in Nevada. And Trump leads her by double digits in polls of her home state of South Carolina.

Leaders of the effort to warn voters about a second Trump term say that focusing on the primary is a lost cause. They argue that Trumps nomination is inevitable and that the focus should shift now to trying to defeat him in the general election.

Its all doom and gloom in the primary, said Charlie Sykes, a conservative Wisconsin political commentator. But this has been predictable for a long time now.

Trumps detractors point to data from Iowa and New Hampshire that show some warning signs for Trump, particularly among independents and more moderate Republicans. In New Hampshire, 64 percent of undeclared voters sided with Haley, according to exit polls.

Exit polls showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Donald Trump. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

A pre-caucus NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of voters in Iowa found that 43 percent of Haley supporters said they would back President Joe Biden over Trump.

And in New Hampshire, 46 percent of GOP primary voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump became the GOP nominee, and 35 percent said they would not vote for him in November.

Exit polls also showed four out of 10 people who cast a ballot for Haley in New Hampshire said they did so out of distaste for Trump. And 94 percent of Haleys voters said they would be dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination.

Fully half of Iowas Republican caucusgoers said they did not identify as part of Trumps Make America Great Again movement. Even more 63 percent said the same in New Hampshire.

That significant chunks of voters from two disparate (though still overwhelmingly white) electorates showed similar resistance to Trump is encouraging to both Sykes and Madrid.

Looking at these numbers and Trumps general approval [ratings] amongst Republicans and also election results from the last three elections, they are all pointing in a direction of getting worse for Trump not better, Madrid said.

Fergus Cullen, a Never Trump Republican and former New Hampshire Republican Party chair who voted for Haley on Tuesday, called those statistics the best result from yesterday.

Citing the 35 percent of voters who said they wouldnt vote for Trump in the general election, Cullen said, Imagine if 35 percent of GOP elected officials said the same thing. Those of us who oppose Trump may not be able to prevent his renomination, but we should be able to prevent him from winning a general.

Still, Trump has defied political gravity before, and many Trump critics after he left office once believed he was unlikely to win renomination. Cullen said Trump does have some ability to find new voters and expand the electorate.

Even though Biden and Trump have declared the general election effectively underway, Haley has not. The former South Carolina governor has vowed to continue through Super Tuesday, where her campaign argues a slate of open and semi-open primaries will give her a fighting chance.

And some Never Trumpers arent ready to look ahead to the general election yet. They want her to keep going.

Theres tons and tons of ammunition for her to make the case that [Trump] is unfit to be president, said Gordon Humphrey, a former U.S. senator from New Hampshire who left the party after Trump won the nomination in 2016 and supported Haley in Tuesdays primary.

Yet Sean Van Anglen, a New Hampshire political consultant who was an early supporter of Trump in 2016 but voted for Haley this time, is already moving on. Van Anglen, who said hed consider leaving the presidential line blank on his November ballot rather than vote for Trump or Biden, is looking to put together an effort to aid down-ballot Republicans who he believes could suffer with Trump again at the top of the ticket.

We need to let the toddler run his temper tantrum out, Van Anglen said. Then let the adults come back into the room and take back control of our party and our country.

Jessica Piper and Steve Shepard contributed to this report.

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Why Trump's critics see his New Hampshire win as a positive sign for 2024 - POLITICO - POLITICO

When David Cameron, Britains foreign secretary and onetime prime minister, visited Washington last month, he took time out to press the case for backing Ukraine with Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the far-right Georgia Republican who stridently opposes further American military aid to the country.

Last week, Boris Johnson, another former prime minister, argued that the re-election of Donald J. Trump to the White House would not be such a bad thing, so long as Mr. Trump comes around on helping Ukraine. I simply cannot believe that Trump will ditch the Ukrainians, Mr. Johnson wrote in a Daily Mail column that read like a personal appeal to the candidate.

If the special relationship between Britain and the United States has taken on an air of special pleading in recent weeks, it is because Britain, rock solid in its support for Ukraine, now views its role as bucking up an ally for whom aid to the embattled country has become a political obstacle course.

British diplomats said Mr. Cameron and other senior officials had made it a priority to reach out to Republicans who were hostile to further aid. For reasons of history and geography, Britain recognized that support is not as instinctive for Americans as it for the British, according to a senior diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the matter.

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'No Time to Go Wobbly': Why Britain Is Lobbying U.S. Republicans on Ukraine - The New York Times