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If he can make it there, hell make it everywhere. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

Among the Republicans who are scheming to prevent Donald Trumps third straight presidential nomination, there seems to be a notion that if the GOP presidential field him can be winnowed in Iowa and New Hampshire, some savior of the party will emerge and beat him in a one-on-one fight. The argument seems to go back to a highly debatable (Id actually call it wrong) proposition: The large field of rivals was the crucial factor in enabling Trump to win his first nomination in 2016. But even if it were true that a smaller field could have vanquished Trump in 2016, hes arguably a much stronger candidate right now than he was eight years ago. For example: Hes currently at 55.8 percent among Republican voters nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling averages. In 2016, he did not hit 50 percent in any national poll prior to nailing down the nomination in May.

Still, some say we should ignore the national polls and just focus on the early state races that could produce a Trump-vanquishing champion. Thats exactly what New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu argued Monday in a New York Times op-ed:

The best indicator of Mr. Trumps strength is looking to where the voters are paying attention: in states where candidates are campaigning, television ads are running, and there is a wide range of media attention on every candidate.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states that will vote in the 2024 Republican primaries, Mr. Trump is struggling. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he is consistently polling in the low 40 percent range. The floor of his support may be high, but his ceiling is low.

I wouldnt call a candidate who has a 26-point lead in Iowa (again, per the RCP averages) and a 30-point lead in New Hampshire one who is struggling in those two states. Sununu appears to assume anyone who is not for Trump now will never support him, which wasnt true in 2016 (when he gained strength every time a rival dropped out) and isnt much supported by the evidence of Trumps high favorability numbers among Republicans today.

At some early point, if Trump keeps winning big, hes going to become unbeatable. No Republican candidate who has won both Iowa and New Hampshire has ever been denied the presidential nomination. Will Trump be the first? It sure sounds like another of those Establishment Republican fantasies whereby Trump is regularly underestimated.

Indeed, the bigger question about the early states in 2024 is whether Trump will have nailed down the nomination before the field is small enough to give anyone a clean shot at the heavy front-runner. Several candidates (notably Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy) are focusing mostly on New Hampshire; they arent going to drop out after an underwhelming performance in Iowa. Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are likely to hang onto their candidacies fanatically until their home state of South Carolina the fourth state to vote holds its primary in late February.

Even without the post-Iowa winnowing Sununu is counting on, its true there is a history of New Hampshire voters interrupting the premature victory celebrations of Iowa winners in both parties. Is it possible an Iowa win by Trump would be Pyrrhic, dooming his candidacy?

That doesnt make a whole lot of sense once you examine the recent Republican candidates who have won Iowa and then quickly succumbed in New Hampshire and beyond. In 2008, 2012, and 2016, Iowa was won by Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz, respectively. Huckabee barely had two nickels to rub together; Santorum and Cruz upset national front-runners (Mitt Romney and Donald Trump) who came back to crush them in New Hampshire and later primaries. None of these doomed Iowa winners are in anything like the position Trump is in right now.

Sure, anythings possible in politics, and Trumps legal troubles could in theory extend the contest for the nomination even if hes winning intially (though so far those legal troubles seem to be helping him among Republicans). Candidates should definitely plan beyond the earliest states even if they are unlikely to be around for, say, Florida (where Trump and DeSantis could wage a dual home-turf battle ) or Georgia (where Trumps rivals are angling for an endorsement by Trumps nemesis Brian Kemp).

But the odds say Trumps rivals better beat him or at least give him a scare in Iowa, where its possible to punch above your weight with a superior ground game and where the 45th president has already lost once before. If he romps there, hes probably ne all but a lock for the nomination, barring crazy developments. And all those pleas to candidates to get out of the way of a fictional Trump-slayer will represent a waste of time and energy.

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Iowa Caucus Could Be Republicans' Only Chance to Stop Trump - New York Magazine

Americans really dont like the new abortion restrictions Republicans have been pushing all over the country. Essentially every time theyve had a chance, voters have protected abortion accesseven in surprising places, like Kansas. So how is the GOP responding to its repeated losses? Mostly by trying to trick voters into siding with them. Christina Cauterucci takes a close look at the how and why of this new strategy.

Next term, the Supreme Court will hear a case, United States v. Moore, that asks whether a wealth tax is constitutional. Leaving the arguments of the case aside, one thing is already clear: Clarence Thomas must recuse himself. Jonathan Zasloff explains why.

Thanks to robots who can do the actual labor of turning stones into something more ornate, classical structures are making a comeback. But should they? Henry Grabar digs into questions about what makes humans feel like they are at home, and whether people love ornamentor just old stuff, as he unpacks the new trend.

Theres been a mounting chorus in recent weeks that Biden could have helped end the war in Ukraine months ago. Fred Kaplan explains where the criticism is coming from, why its wrong, and what the real question is instead.

Yes, we are aware that it is actually Monday, and therefore the opposite of the freakin weekend. But Slate has launched a new collection of weekend stories that are too much fun not to tell you about. In addition to Human Guinea Pig and Explainer, this weekend we launched One Thingshort pieces that explain one thing that could improve your life.

For example:

Get rid of your books!

Have a secret handshake with your kid

Make a better salad (OK, any salad)

Conquer your to-do list with one easy trick (basically!)

Check back next weekend for more!

Relatedly, were also running a column called What Its Likeexploring experiences that you probably havent had, but might be curious about. First up? Whats it like to be a process serveri.e., the guy in TV shows who is always tracking people down to tell them theyre being sued. Its more complicated than it sounds.

much like low-stakes flirting, which Luke Winkie was not permitted to do for an entire week, as he attempted to live like Mike Pence (never be alone with a woman who was not his partner). This is what the aforementioned Human Guinea Pig is all about, people!

Thanks so much for reading, and well see you tomorrow!

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Abortion after Roe v. Wade: How Republicans are still trying to get ... - Slate

GREENSBORO, N.C. (WGHP) The Guilford County Republican Party has a day and a time for when it will vote on the person it wants to fill the District 3 seat on the Guilford County Board of Education in time for Septembers meeting and confirmed the spot is open to any resident of District 3 who wants to be considered.

That process may or may not include the Republican currently in the seat, Bill Goebel, whom the GC GOP doesnt think should have the job because he wasnt chosen by the party committee to fill the remainder of the term vacated when Pat Tillman was elected to the Guilford County Board of Commissioners.

An email distributed by the party on Friday confirmed what Chair Chris Meadows had told WGHP that the party would have a new vote about filling the seat and is inviting any district resident who wants to apply to send an email and it set Aug. 30 as the day and time for that vote. Meadows said the meeting would be limited to party members only.

This follows the North Carolina General Assemblys approval last week of Senate Bill 9, which includes language requiring the seat to be vacated by Goebel immediately after a new nominee is chosen by the partys executive committee, which is what GOP officials have argued all along.

The party, in its email, suggests that once the committee makes its recommendation to the Superintendent of Guilford County Schools in accordance with the law, that individual shall take the oath of office at the next regular meeting of the Board. The Board has no vote or voice in the matter.

A squabble that began in December, when the board turned down the partys original nominee, former teacher Michael Logan, ended April 4 with Goebel, who also volunteered, being seated. This process included another bill, House Bill 88, in which the school districts lawyer found a loophole that allowed Goebel to get the position.

A spokesperson for the school district referred questions about where the board stands on this issue to Jill Wilson, the boards attorney, who didnt respond immediately to an email seeking comment. Neither did Board Chair Deena Hayes.

Goebel, who last week launched his candidacy for the full-term seat in the 2024 election cycle, has not said if he will participate in next weeks selection, although he mentioned that the party had censured him following his appointment.

Goebel was in a meeting on Monday morning and unavailable to answer questions. He had said last week that our position is there is no vacancy to fill.

In the email, the GC GOP said that its leaders think the party all along has been compliant with the law but chose to work through the legislative process initiated by Rep. Jon Hardister (R-Guilford) and Senate Leader Phil Berger (R-Rockingham), whose district includes some of the same area as District 3, over objections from Democrats in the Guilford County delegation rather than cost the taxpayers tens of thousands of dollars with a possible lawsuit against a public board.

As the Chairman of the Guilford County Republican Party, I find the actions of the Board Democrats and the illegally appointed representative repugnant, Meadows said in a statement. Not only did the Board Chair and other Board members slander Mr. Michael Logan, a 25-year, beloved GCS teacher, they disrespected the two Republican Board members Ms. Crissy Pratt and Ms. Linda Welborn, undermined the NC General Assembly, and disenfranchised the citizens in District 3 for months.

The Guilford County Republican Party, as a dignified assembly, will not tolerate pernicious schemes and illegal backroom deals.

Logan served some 27 years as an automotive instructor at Southern Guilford High School and retired to fulfill the requirement that a teacher cant be seated on the board of education.

But since December the board had rejected Logan in four party-line votes because the six Democrats objected to some of Logans public statements. In a letter to the News & Recordearlier this year, Hayes had asked that the GOP put forward candidates who had not engaged in racially prejudiced writing, who seek to embody the values a board of education member should hold and who have expressed an interest in representing District 3.

Welborn, Pratt and Logan have sued the party is soliciting donations to cover their legal expenses because they feel that Hayes, the Democrats on the board and Goebel violated the states open meetings law through a series of communications that led to the process even though Goebel is an avowed Republican and fiscal conservative.

Their suit names as individuals Goebel and those six Democrats Khem Irby, Bettye Jenkins, Deborah Napper, Allen Sherouse, T. Dianne Bellamy Small and Hayes and the Guilford County School Board at large.

Welborn has not responded to emails asking about the status of that suit a Guilford County Superior Court judge is considering the school boards motion to dismiss and Meadows has told WGHP that he thought it was moving forward.

We are assisting in the fundraising for the plaintiffs but are not a party to the lawsuit, Meadows said last week. This lawsuit is about the violations of the NC Open Meetings law. It will move forward, as far as Im aware. I have not heard that they are dropping it.

Meadows also indicated he didnt expect the school board to be suing the GC GOP about this issue. Any legal action would be directed at the General Assembly, he said. The Guilford GOP did not pass this law.

With the passage of SB 9, the GCRP Executive Committee will ensure that the lawful Republican nominee will be seated at the next Board meeting, Meadows said in the release.

Link:
Guilford County Republicans set a date to make their choice for District 3 seat on the school board again - WGHP FOX8 Greensboro

Dive Brief:

The legislative proposal likely has no chance of passing politically divided Congress, but it does signal some Republicans position on the Education Department.

The rightwing has argued the federal government should play a minimal role in education policy and accused the Biden administration of overreach, including through his signature proposals like student loan forgiveness.

Education decisions should instead fall to local and state authorities, as well as parents, the bill sponsors said.

Parents should play a central role in their childrens education, not the federal government, Rep. Mary Miller of Illinois said in a statement. I am proud to stand with House Republicans in their effort to hold the Biden Department of Education accountable to parents and taxpayers.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a GOP contender for the 2024 presidential election, has pledged to abolish the Education Department, along with several other federal agencies.

The Education Department has struggled with staffing in recent years. Department employees fled under the Trump administration, leaving the agency struggling as it tries to fulfill major policy goals.

The Education Department's Federal Student Aid office, for instance, is under immense strain as it carries out regulatory changes, rolls out a new Free Application for Federal Student Aid Form, and restarts payments for student loan borrowers.

Continued here:
House Republicans' bill would freeze Education Department hiring - K-12 Dive

COLUMBUS, Ohio Ohio Republicans are divided on the effort to legalize marijuana for recreational use in the state.

Just because they belong to the same party doesn't mean they have to agree on everything which is exactly what is happening right now with weed.

Recreational marijuana may become legal this November and many Ohio Republicans aren't happy about it.

"It would be a mistake," Governor Mike DeWine said.

He has always been anti-recreational weed. He opposes the ballot issue that would legalize marijuana for adults 21 and up. If passed, Ohioans could also grow up to six marijuana plants. In addition, the proposal would impose a 10% tax at the point of sale for each transaction.

RELATED: Recreational marijuana makes Ohio's Nov. ballot, joining abortion rights amendment

"This product has been developed and its potency is significantly higher than it was years ago," DeWine said. "It's not your grandfather's marijuana or your grandmother's marijuana."

Legalization will only tell kids that drugs are okay, the governor added.

"Even though they might not be able to use it until they're 18 or 21... the message you're sending to a 13-year-old is, 'well, look, it's legal'" he said. "That is reinforced every time the 13-year-old is in the car with mom or dad and they go by a shop at least in Denver with a little green man."

RELATED: Advocates say budding careers will grow if Ohio legalizes marijuana this November

Not everyone in his party feels the same. Statehouse reporter Morgan Trau tried to ask the governor a few times about this.

"I dont speak for them and they dont speak for me," DeWine said, cutting Trau's question off.

Republican state Rep. Jamie Callender (R-Concord) has put forward legislation to legalize adult use. His bill is very similar to the current ballot proposal, which he supports.

"Cannabis has some very legitimate uses, whether it's pain relief, whether it's an alternative to alcohol," Callender said. "I don't know that we have any business legislating or certainly making criminal."

He responded to the governor that marijuana may be more potent, but it's actually safer now.

"Any cannabis that would be sold in any form would be tested in a pharmaceutical quality lab," Callender added. "And in Mike DeWine's grandfather's day that was not the case."

Callender isnt the only supporter either; other GOP lawmakers like Ron Ferguson (R-Wintersville) support legalization. The approval isn't limited to state politics.

"Congressman Joyce plans to vote yes and thinks its important that all Ohioans make their voices heard in November," a spokesperson for Congressman Dave Joyce (R-OH) said.

Callender is concerned that even if it passes, Ohioans still won't get recreational marijuana.

"There are a number of legislators who have publicly commented that they will block marijuana in any way they can and that could possibly mean overturning the will of the voters," he said.

This is a bad idea, he said.

"I think that would be politically ill-advised especially after Issue 1 just failed so strongly for the legislature to override the clear will of the people," the lawmaker added.

Callender was one of the few Republicans who opposed the unpopular Issue 1 when it was going through the House process to get on the ballot. The Northeast Ohio Republican is also one of the most moderate, which makes sense given his Cleveland-area constituents. He often opposes the most controversial bills, like one restricting healthcare for transgender youth that also banned trans kids from playing middle and high school sports.

The General Assembly is able to repeal a ballot proposal when the issue is an initiated statute. This differs from the abortion proposal, which is a constitutional amendment.

This means that lawmakers are technically able to repeal the proposal the day after it passes.

When asking Senate President Matt Huffman, avidly anti-marijuana, his team said it was too early to tell, and to let November happen first.

"Those are just not good things that we need to see in the state of Ohio," DeWine said.

GOP Divide

Despite having a dominant supermajority, Ohio Republicans don't or rather can't use it.

The House GOP is completely divided due to the speakership "coup" that happened in Jan. Twenty-two Republicans (known "affectionately" by the other faction as the "Blue 22") voted for state Rep. Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) for speaker, while the majority of Republicans voted for state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova). Stephens, still a conservative, is more moderate than Merrin.

The anti-Stephens faction has been relentless in fighting Stephens at every opportunity. Stephens has had to rely on Democrats, the majority of the lawmakers who voted for him as speaker, to get his work done like passing the House rules. The budget was bipartisan, with Finance Chairman Jay Edwards (R-Nelsonville) working closely with state Rep. Bride Rose Sweeney (D-Cleveland).

The latest drama is with the effort to repeal scandal-ridden, taxpayer-funded subsidies for coal plants.

RELATED: Ohio Statehouse drama continues as lawmakers attempt to repeal scandal-ridden coal plant subsidies

Other recent GOP divides include:

Follow WEWS statehouse reporter Morgan Trau on Twitter and Facebook.

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Ohio Republicans split on Nov. marijuana legalization and could ... - News 5 Cleveland WEWS