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Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican and die-hard ally of former President Donald J. Trump, was exasperated with her colleagues as she left the House floor last Thursday evening.

I dont know if its sunk in this place around here, Ms. Greene vented as she headed for the elevators and then for Manchester, N.H., where she was stumping for the former president. Ive been telling everyone that President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party; hes going to be our presidential nominee. Its time for all Republicans to get behind his policies.

If it hadnt sunk in yet, it has now.

After Mr. Trump won the New Hampshire primary by 11 percentage points on Tuesday night following his steamrolling victory in the Iowa caucuses, the small segment of Republicans in Congress who had tried to distance themselves from him, ignore him, cast doubt on his staying power or condemn him have begun swiftly falling into line behind him. And this time, it is happening even faster than it did in 2016, when Mr. Trump first subsumed his party.

In the Senate, at least 29 Republicans more than half the conference have now endorsed Mr. Trump, compared with zero for the lone Republican challenger still standing, former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who vowed on Tuesday night to carry on with her campaign despite outlining no clear path to victory.

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Original post:
After Early Primary Victories, Republicans in Congress Fall in Line Behind Trump - The New York Times

New York Attorney General Letitia James accused Trump, his sons Don Jr. and Eric, the Trump Organization, and other company executives of fraudulently inflating the value of various real estate assets to get more favorable terms on bank loans. The judge presiding over that trial, Arthur Engoron, determined in September that Trump indeed committed fraud and ordered that all Trumps New York business certificates be canceled, making it nearly impossible to do business in the state and effectively killing the Trump Organization.

But even though Trump isnt worth as much as he claims, because his sworn statements put his value so high, he could end up owing Carroll a massive amount in damages. Her minimum of $10 million is already on the low end. Carrolls expert witness Ashlee Humphreys, a Northwestern University marketing professor who analyzes social media trends, testified last week that the price to repair the harm caused by Trumps defamatory comments could be as high as $12.1 million. And that doesnt even include punitive damages.

Trump already owes Carroll $5 million in damages after a jury in May unanimously found him liable for sexual abuse and battery against Carroll in the mid-1990s and for defaming her in 2022 while denying the assault.

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Trump's About to Win This NominationAnd Top Republicans Have Gone Mum - The New Republic

If the results of the New Hampshire primary tell us anything, it is that the Republican Party is facing a divide between the two key voter groups it needs to win in November its partisan base and the voters most likely to tip the general election, independents.

There are two ways of looking at the final results of the primary one that gives us some insight on the remaining primaries and Trumps advantage and one that sheds light on the general election and Haleys advantage.

First, the rest of the primary season. Tuesdays primary election was a clear victory for the former president, one that has put him on the trajectory to winning the Republican nomination. Overall, he won the state by 11 percentage points, 54 percent to 43 percent (with 95 percent of votes in), and performed well, based on the Edison Research preliminary exit poll results (updated at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday), with key groups that will make up the critical component of future primaries.

Trump won voters who identified as Republicans 50 percent of the primary electorate by a large margin, 74 percent to 25 percent. Conservative voters made up 67 percent of the electorate; Trump won them, 71 percent to 27 percent. In terms of education, Trump won voters without a college degree a group that comprised 52 percent of the overall vote by a margin of 67 percent to 31 percent.

Finally, white evangelical or white born-again Christians went for Trump 70 percent to 26 percent. His level of performance with these groups certainly bodes well for Trump in the upcoming primaries.

Take South Carolina, for example, the next big primary state after Nevada. In the 2016 primary, the electorate was 81 percent conservative and 67 percent were white evangelical or born-again Christians. Haley has her work cut out for her in her home state.

Still, Trumps New Hampshire victory was closer than expected. The RealClearPolitics average on Tuesday showed him leading Haley by 19 percentage points. The last three polls in the RCP average going into the primary, however, showed the average lead at 24 points. The final results fell short of that.

Now looking at the general. For Haley, her performance overall in New Hampshire outpaced expectations and she was the clear winner with key voter groups critical in going beyond the Republican base to win the general election. Haley handily won independents, who made up 44 percent of the electorate, by 58 percent to 39 percent. Similarly, moderates, 28 percent of the electorate, voted for Haley by 72 percent to 25 percent.

She also won voters with college Bachelors degrees or higher by 56-42 percent, a group that plays an important role in the general election.

Haleys strength with independents would bode well for the general election and the party. In the last couple of elections, Republicans have struggled to win these voters. In 2018, Republicans lost them by 12 points, 42 percent to 54 percent, which cost Republicans the House. In 2020, Trump lost Independents by 13 points, 41 percent to 54 percent, and the White House.

In 2022, Republicans lost Independents by two points, 47 percent to 49 percent, the reason the expected red wave didnt happen, despite a historic party identification advantage of plus-3 percentage points over Democrats. To win this November, Republicans also need to do better with moderate voters who Trump lost in 2020 by 30 points, 34 percent to 64 percent, and who Republicans lost by 15 points in 2022.

Analyzing the primary voters top four issues, we see a similar dichotomy between the candidates, with Trump stronger in the primaries, while Haley showed a potential advantage in the general. The top issue for Republicans was the economy (40 percent) followed by immigration (37 percent). Among those who said immigration, Trump won them 86 percent to 14 percent, and among the economy voters, he won them 67 percent to 33 percent.

For independents, the top issue was the economy, at 36 percent, with immigration at 23 percent. Like Republicans, independents who chose immigration went with Trump by 67 percent to 31 percent. However, Haley won independents who chose the economy, by 54 percent to 40 percent.

The exit poll also asked whether voters would be satisfied or dissatisfied if Trump won the nomination and asked the same question for Haley. Overall for Trump, 61 percent said satisfied and 38 percent said dissatisfied. For Haley, it was 51 percent satisfied and 47 percent dissatisfied.

Among Republicans, the result for Trump was 80 percent satisfied and 19 dissatisfied, while for Haley it was 41 percent satisfied and 57 dissatisfied. This is clearly an advantage for Trump in the upcoming primaries but perhaps not for the general.

Asked about Trump, 45 percent of independents said they would be satisfied, but 54 percent said they would be dissatisfied. On the other hand, 61 percent said they would be satisfied with Haley and 37 percent dissatisfied. Once again, we see a divide that gives Trump an advantage in the primaries but Haley with a potential stronger standing in the general election.

Going forward, both candidates have challenges. The exit poll asked voters if they would still find Trump fit to be president if convicted. Overall, 54 percent said yes and 42 percent said no.

There was a clear difference, however, between Republicans and independents on this question.

Among Republicans, 72 percent said yes and 26 percent said no. Of those who said yes, Trump won them, 91 percent to 9 percent. In contrast, only 38 percent of independents said yes, while 58 percent said no. This result strongly suggests that for the primary environment, this issue is less challenging for Trump, but clearly could be quite problematic in the fall.

While outperforming expectations, for Haley, losing New Hampshire by double digits still was a loss. At some point, she has to put a win on the board. The fact that voters who decided their vote in January representing 41 percent of the vote, including the majority of independents went for Haley, 64 percent to 33 percent, is a positive for her. Haleys clear challenge is to turn her recent momentum into more than just closing the gap.

The bottom line is that both candidates have positives and negatives coming out of the New Hampshire primary. Trump, having now won both Iowa and New Hampshire, is in a strong position; however Haley did close the gap.

For the party, holding the base while reaching out to independents must be job one.

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.

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For Republicans, two outcomes from the New Hampshire primary - Roll Call

It seems Republicans are now more open to partnering with Fetterman on policy because of his recent party-bucking.

It certainly makes it more appealing to want to work with him on things if you see this independent streak, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said of Fettermans recent remarks.

No grand partnerships have sprung up on legislation just yet. But the mere fact that Republicans view him in those terms is a statement on Fettermans political evolution.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who frustrated many in his own party with his months-long blockade of military promotions, lauded Fetterman as someone who speaks his own mind and doesnt follow the party line. Tuberville added that its easier to talk, carry on a conversation, with a political opponent whos open-minded.

Many Senate Republicans are ready to take a new look at John Fetterman. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Its unclear whether Fetterman can, or even wants to, leverage his new niche as a Democrat who Republicans can tolerate possibly even like into a productive role as a Senate dealmaker. Its a disappearing typecast: Sens. Mitt Romneys (R-Utah) and Joe Manchins (D-W.Va.) imminent retirements are hollowing out the chambers small but influential bloc of aisle-crossing negotiators, and that void could grow if Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) also passes on reelection.

But Fettermans voting record remains staunchly in line with the rest of his party. In a brief interview for this story, the first-term senator didnt express explicit interest in taking on more partnerships with the GOP but he didnt rule it out, either. Fetterman even argued that Republicans who have personally praised his recent remarks on the border and Israel shouldnt be so shocked.

Outside of Philadelphia, they have these gigantic billboards, where it was like, Fetterman = open border ... it just turns out that its all bullshit, Fetterman said in an interview, referring to Republicans 2022 campaign attacks on him. And I would have thought that professionals would have realized that most of it is all bullshit.

Just over a year ago, Senate Republicans were working hard to brand Fetterman as a younger version of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) an actual democratic socialist who was unfit for office. Over the past three months, however, Fetterman showed a side of his ideology that seemed to genuinely startle his GOP colleagues.

Not only did he vocally defend Israel in its war against Hamas, as Sanders and other liberal leaders suggested curbs on U.S. aid, Fetterman defended bipartisan talks on stricter border policies that slow the flow of migrants into the U.S. And he bucked his own leadership by calling for the expulsion of a fellow Democrat, indicted New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez.

Hes not in lockstep with the progressives in his party I dont know if hes had an epiphany or exactly whats going on, but [its] obviously gotten a lot of peoples attention, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

In fact, Fetterman has repeatedly stressed he is not a progressive. Yet core elements of his political persona remain very much in line with the left: He wants to abolish the filibuster; he wants universal health care, though hes not embraced Sanders flagship Medicare for all slogan; he still dons hoodies in the staid Senate, reveling in the establishments alarm at his casual garb.

On the campaign trail, Fetterman even quipped that he might let down centrist-leaning Joe Manchin Democrats, nudging members of his party to vote like Democrats. When it comes to votes during his first year in office, hes stayed true to that watchword rarely straying from the party line.

Taking the man as a whole, many Senate Republicans are ready to take a new look at Fetterman.

I know from politics, my own race, that not everything people say about you is actually true, said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who added that Fetterman has said some smart things over the past few months, particularly about the border. The two first-term senators have worked together on rail safety legislation that Vance still hopes will pass this year.

Fetterman has also cosponsored several agriculture-focused bills alongside Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who credited the Pennsylvanian for bucking Biden and everybody else on immigration. The administration has also been open to bipartisan border talks.

Even off the Hill, Fetterman has won praise from Republicans, including two current GOP Senate candidates. Former Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.), whos seeking a comeback in the upper chamber, has said he likes Fetterman. Dave McCormick, whos hoping to take on Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) next fall, said hes been surprised by Fetterman and that he thinks the Democrat has moral clarity on the border and Israel.

Still, Fettermans new GOP fans are also curbing their enthusiasm for him. Cramer argued that Fetterman leans liberal on most issues, saying that his views are largely left, in some cases very left. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said he appreciated Fetterman sticking to his guns on the border and Israel but pushed back on any suggestion that the Democrat is on an all-out independent streak.

Kennedy also indicated that Republicans shouldnt let Fettermans metamorphosis matter too much.

Just because somebody agrees or disagrees with you doesnt mean you ought to like or dislike them, he said. You should respect differences of opinion.

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Republicans are suddenly excited to work with John Fetterman - POLITICO - POLITICO

The restraint from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue signals the White House is still hopeful that a deal could be struck.

On the Hill, negotiators spent a frantic day trying to salvage talks after it was reported on late Wednesday that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was bowing to Trumps desires to dissolve a border deal.

The following day, McConnell clarified he still supports pursuing border security linked to Ukraine funding, though he and other top Republicans werent able to entirely assuage murmurs that a deal is on its deathbed.

Late Thursday, Trump released a statement saying the nation is better off not making a deal unless its perfect, and he called the current Senate effort meaningless.

A border deal now would be another gift to the radical left Democrats. They need it politically, but dont care about our border, he said.

Democrats were quick to accuse Trump of trying to perpetuate a crisis at the border for political gain in the election. Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison earlier Thursday slammed Trump and Republicans for sabotaging efforts to address issues at the border. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee said Senate Republicans are tanking a border deal for political reasons.

But the White House didnt join the chorus.

Privately, officials said they felt it was too early and would be imprudent to jump into the fray. They closely followed the trickle of reports about what exactly McConnell said inside the room. Still hopeful for a deal in the Senate, officials felt that any political response from them would be leveraged by Republicans to scuttle whatever possibility was left to forge an agreement.

We believe that there needs to be action on the border. That we need to come together on common sense compromise on border measures and border policy and border resources, Dalton said. And we still are hopeful that that can happen.

The monthslong border talks have been a headache for the White House. The administration has tried to find a middle ground between Republicans and Democrats, all while the border faces record pressure and cities across the country struggle to manage an influx of migrants.

The election year timing only complicates the matter, with Trump now looking like a surefire GOP nominee. And for that reason, other Democrats have not been so quiet as the former president grows more public in his desire to see a more conservative final bill or nothing at all.

This is a party that is a complete mess to the point where the party leadership is explicitly saying in ways that are designed to leak that their presumptive nominee is trying to essentially prevent the Senate and the House from solving problems so that he can have more problems to run on, said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, in an interview.

While the White House so far engaged Senate Republicans on border talks, it has not been shy in attacking House GOP leadership, which has stressed its own opposition to a bipartisan deal.

Biden aides know a Senate deal is likely dead on arrival in the House, according to two people familiar with the White Houses thinking, granted anonymity to speak privately about conversations with administration officials. Not only will border legislation face opposition from the GOP caucus, but progressives have also threatened to vote against sweeping changes to asylum law.

And so, administration officials are moving to put blame for inaction on that chamber.

They have been laser focused on getting a deal through the Senate, which they believe will demonstrate Bidens ability to reach bipartisan agreement and his eagerness to address the border problem. After that, the presidents team plans to rail against House Republicans for dragging their feet.

They want to get a deal out of the Senate, one of the people said, even though they know its dead so they can pick a fight with House Republicans.

See the original post here:
White House stays the course on border talks despite Trump's interference - POLITICO