Mediaboss Marketing

By Mark Hulbert

I've made this argument before. But it bears repeating because of a recent bipartisan proposal in Congress to fund the Social Security trust fund with the profits the U.S. Treasury could earn by borrowing $1.5 trillion and investing it in the stock market.

The proposal is garnering increasing support, not just on Capitol Hill but also from Wall Street.

Read: Social Security's COLA for 2024 is 3.2%, vs. 2023's historic 8.7% inflation-fueled adjustment

It's easy to understand why many are attracted to it. The proposal claims to overcome Social Security's multitrillion-dollar deficit without raising taxes or cutting benefits. What's not to like about that?

If only it were that easy.

The fundamental problem with the proposal is that it's extremely risky: More than half the time since the founding of the U.S. in the late 1700s, bonds have outperformed stocks. So if the future is like the past, there's a better-than-even chance that the Treasury's foray into the stock market will cause the U.S. government to lose money. And Social Security will be in worse shape than it is already.

Read: Inflation is already racing past next year's Social Security COLA

Proponents of the proposal calculate that the odds of success are much better than this. But they are guilty of focusing only on that portion of U.S. history in which stocks greatly outperformed bonds. Unless there is a good theoretical reason to ignore the more than half of U.S. history in which bonds outperformed stocks, the proponents' arguments represent a triumph of hope over experience.

The accompanying chart plots the cumulative performance of stocks and bonds since 1793, courtesy of Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University who has spent years constructing a database of U.S. stock and bond market history. Notice that, as late as 1933, stocks' cumulative performance since 1793 was below that of bonds. That 140-year period of bond superiority constitutes more than half the 230 years of U.S. market history.

I'm not accusing the proponents of the Congressional proposal of consciously excluding these 140 years, which would be shameful. I doubt they are even aware of that history. The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) at the University of Chicago, which is the gold standard for historical market data, starts its database in December 1925. Almost all other stock and bond yearbooks follow suit.

Ignorance is not a good defense, however, especially when trillions of dollars are at stake. And there is no theoretical justification for the December 1925 start date, McQuarrie said in an email. "My understanding is that the University of Chicago team that collected the original data for CRSP in the early 1960s ran out of time and / or money as they got back that far."

As a result of this unfortunate historical accident, however, the period prior to the mid-1920s is invisible to most students of the markets.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

-Mark Hulbert

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-13-23 1415ET

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It's risky to bet Social Security's solvency on the stock market - Morningstar

Todays Marketing: Classic Strategy with Modern Execution

Monday, Oct. 16, 9 a.m.-4 p.m.

Gardiner Centre, Signal Hill Campus

Combine classic methodology for developing a marketing strategy with a tactical program that uses modern marketing solutions, and analyzes results using data and analytics.

The truth is, the fundamentals of marketing have not changed very much since the days of theMad Men-style ad agencies of the 1960s. The number of challenges remain about the same: what is your objective; how do you plan to achieve it; who is your target audience; what value can your product offer?

Whatis new is that the number of solutions has grown exponentially.

Until the 1990s, most marketing solutions involved TV, radio, newspaper, billboards, an event, a mail dropand thats about it. Today, your marketing tool kit might include a TikTok, a web takeover, pre-roll, Facebook, paid content, Google ads, search, AI, augmented reality, stunts, geo-fencing, and many more tools being created every day.

This session is designed for people who are responsible for marketing for their organization, and are interested in identifying more modern tools. Over he course of two days, participants will explore marketing strategy fundamentals, ways to find and evaluate creative ideas, and how to use some popular digital and social media analytics.

Key Learning Outcomes

Continuing Education Contact Hours: 14

Register Now

Presented by Gardiner Centre

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Today's Marketing: Classic Strategy with Modern Execution - Gazette

In labor markets where employers have more control over wages, increasing the minimum wage often results in a rise in employment, according to a new study coauthored by Ioana Marinescu, an associate professor at Penns School of Social Policy & Practice (SP2) who is director of the SP2 Master of Science in Social Policy Program and currently working with the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In the paperpublished in the Review of Economic Studies, Marinescu and coauthors study the effects of minimum wage increases on a low-wage retail sector. The authors also utilize nationwide data on labor market concentrationa measure of competition for workers, where high concentration means that a few companies dominate hiring. Their results apply to the fast-food sector and the entire low-wage labor market.

We find that in labor markets that are more concentrated or less densely populated, minimum wage increases lead to overall positive employment effects, Marinescu and coauthors write.

The findings reveal that in less competitive job markets where employers have more wage-setting power, and tend to pay workers less, there is more room to increase wages. In the most concentrated labor markets, the authors found that employment rises following a minimum wage increase.

This research provides evidence that the degree of monopsony poweror the ability of companies to pay workers less than their contribution to the companies bottom linein the labor market can determine how minimum wage changes affect employment.

This paper provides compelling evidence that responses to a key labor market institution (the minimum wage) are influenced by the structure of the labor market. As such, the findings also help to further underscore the role of employer concentration in the labor market, the researchers write.

Read more at SP2 News.

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Increasing minimum wage has positive effects on employment ... - Penn Today

The ultimate day out for pooches and their paw-rents is coming to the Sunshine Coast.

DogFest, being held at Nambour Showgrounds October 21, is set to be a canine wonderland; complete with food trucks, dog-friendly stallholders, live entertainment, training demonstrations and workshops.

Social Marketing @ Griffith at Griffith University has partnered with Sunshine Coast Council and the Department of Environment and Science to host this unique family day out.

Sunshine Coast Councils Response Services Education Officer Hannah Maloney said there would be plenty of fun and also an opportunity to improve the communitys knowledge about pet ownership.

The training demonstrations and workshops will help owners create a safer and more harmonious coexistence between people and animals that includes wildlife, Ms Maloney said.

Sadly, if our dogs dont have the necessary wildlife avoidance training, they can kill or harm native animals such as koalas and possums, our protected bush turkeys or migratory and resident shorebirds.

Our Coast is home to more than 700 native animals and we all have a responsibility to care for them.

During DogFest, we will have numerous free interactive workshops to teach our dogs wildlife avoidance skills.

The first of the skills in the wildlife avoidance toolbox is having a solid recall. This will be useful around wildlife, and in everyday life.

DogFest

More dog training resources can be found on Leave It, another initiative of Social Marketing @ Griffith to support our native wildlife and dog owners in South East Queensland

This innovative and informative doggy event is not to be missed by paw-rents.Entry is free.

When: October 21, 8am-1pm

Where: Nambour Showgrounds

What: Dog training demonstrations and workshops, family entertainment, food trucks and stall holders.

Cost: Free. Reserve your free ticket now online.

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Grab the lead and get down to DogFest - Sunshine Coast Council

Associate Professor Chris F Wright

Chris F Wright is an Associate Professor of Work and Organisational Studies at the University of Sydney Business School, where his research specialises in industrial relations and labour market regulation, with a particular focus on national industrial relations systems worldwide.

He will appear before the Senate Education and Employment Legislation Committee this morning to discuss his submission, which focuses on provisions relating to wage theft, platform or gig work, and labour hire.

The Closing Loopholes Bill will help address wide cracks in Australias regulatory framework, which have undermined its effectiveness and led to problems of inequality, insecure work and staff shortages, Associate Professor Wright said.

Key features of the contemporary labour market, such as the gig economy and the rise of labour hire operators, were not envisaged when enterprise bargaining was first introduced in the early 1990s. Back then, wage theft was not the major problem it is today.

"The emergence of these changes threatens the integrity of Australias system of employment regulation if not addressed.

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Emerging labour market requires new regulation - The University of ... - University of Sydney