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In my short three decades in Washington, I have seen two huge Republican waves and I am anticipating a third one a year from now.

The latest generic ballot has Republicans up a touchdown and a field goal, the largest margin I have ever witnessed. If the GOP screws this one up, it will be the most epic fail in history.

There were signs that 1994 was going to be a big year for Republicans, but the establishment had become so used to Democrats running the House that nobody truly believed that then-Rep. Newt GingrichNewton (Newt) Leroy GingrichMORE (Ga.) could take the Speakers gavel. Those signs included an incompetent Clinton administration, abject corruption in the House, a favorable issue set for a center-right country, and a motivated and energized Republican conference.

It became pretty clear by the fall of 2009 that the shelf-life of the Democratic majority was expiring in November of 2010. Instead of focusing on the economy, the Obama administration spent all their political capital on health care reform. House Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiChristie: Trump rhetoric about stolen election led to Jan. 6 attack Biden signs trillion infrastructure bill into law Defiant Bannon warns of 'misdemeanor from hell' for Biden MORE (D-Calif.) made her moderates walk the plank on climate change legislation that never went anywhere in the Senate. And former President ObamaBarack Hussein ObamaEquilibrium/Sustainability Presented by Southern Company COVID-19 kills snow leopards at US zoo David Axelrod calls Rittenhouse judge 'defense attorney on the bench' Manchin set to make or break Biden's climate pledge MORE himself became a polarizing figure who inspired a Tea Party revolt.

The key difference between the 1994 and 2010 came with the governing agenda. Gingrich had one and Speaker John BoehnerJohn Andrew BoehnerRift widens between business groups and House GOP Juan Williams: Pelosi shows her power Debt ceiling games endanger US fiscal credibility again MORE (R-Ohio) didnt. The Contract with America had a specific set of promises that were achievable if you looked at the fine print, and those promises started with a complete overhaul of the House of Representatives. The Tea Party, on the other hand, was an incoherent jumble of the unachievable (repealing ObamaCare) and the incomprehensible (keep the governments hands off of Medicare) as the movement devolved into a mass of petty grifters who were using the passion of the moment to make a few bucks.

The next Republican wave will be a reaction to the progressive movements monumental overreach. As always happens, Republicans fail because they try to do too little, while the Democrats fail because they always try to do way too much. President Biden campaigned like he was former President Clinton in his second term but has tried to govern like he is FDR, LBJ or Obama.

The Biden bait-and-switch is only part of the Democrats problem. The American people dont want more government. Sure, they will take the handouts, because free money is hard to resist. But voters understand instinctively that there is no such thing as a free lunch. They blame the Democrats and the president for inflation and high gas prices (rightfully so), they blame the Democrats and the president for the risk of more government restrictions on freedom (rightfully so), they blame the Democrats and the president for failing schools (ex. the Glenn YoungkinGlenn YoungkinInfrastructure updates only get us halfway we need Build Back Better bill, too Kemp makes pitch to conservatives, independents in new campaign ad GOP looks to expand state legislature candidate tracking program ahead of midterms MORE victory in Virginia), and they blame the whole progressive movement for cancel culture, wokeness, defunding of the police and a general disdain of America and its cultural norms.

The left has become anti-American, anti-capitalist, anti-free speech, anti-liberty, pro-globalist, pro-lockdown, pro-socialist, pro-COVID-19 hysteria, pro-climate hysteria, pro-mask and pro-gender-bending. They have become very easy to run against.

That explains why Republicans will win in November. All the GOP has to say is we are not them and they will have a very good election. We are not crazy. We are not socialist. We are not hysterical. We are pro-family, pro-freedom, pro-economic growth, pro-getting people back to work.

The Republicans dont need a crazy agenda full of promises they cant keep. They dont need to relitigate the 2020 presidential election. They shouldnt spend anytime looking backward.

The Democrats believe that their only hope is to make this election about former President TrumpDonald TrumpHouse Freedom Caucus elects Rep. Scott Perry as new chairman Meadows 'between a rock and a hard space' with Trump, Jan. 6 panel On The Money Biden caps off infrastructure week MORE. The media likes that strategy because Trump is very good for ratings. But actually the only thing that will help the Democratic Party now is if they turn away from the progressive nonsense that has driven Bidens poll ratings to historic lows. That doesnt seem very likely. And so, prepare yourself for the next Republican wave. Its coming to a town near you.

Feehery is a partner at EFB Advocacy and blogs at http://www.thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former Speaker Dennis HastertJohn (Dennis) Dennis HastertFeehery: The GOP could have done better Feehery: The theme song of the counterrevolution Feehery: Critical thinking theory MORE (R-Ill.), as communications director to former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) when he was majority whip and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).

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Feehery: The next Republican wave is coming | TheHill - The Hill

The Alice: An Immersive Cocktail Experience has opened a pop-up venue on Swinegate, where guests can enjoy sweet treats and bespoke cocktails.

The event has been a hit across the world, selling out in Sydney and Melbourne before beginning a USA tour - and now it has landed in Leeds.

The Wonderland tea party is now open for bookings until January 30, 2022.

Guests can create their own liquid concoctions under the watchful eye of The Mad Hatter, play croquet with flamingos, paint the roses red and devour an 'Eat Me' cake.

There will be riddles and challenges to unlock all the ingredients to create enchanted teapot cocktails.

The 90-minute alternate reality experience includes two bespoke cocktails and the 'Eat Me' cake for 28 per person. You can book here.

Support the YEP and become a subscriber today. Enjoy unlimited access to local news and the latest on Leeds United, With a digital subscription, you see fewer ads, enjoy faster load times, and get access to exclusive newsletters and content. Click here to subscribe.

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Boozy Alice in Wonderland tea party with bespoke cocktails and riddles opens in Leeds - Yorkshire Evening Post

That was clearly the message Mr. Biden wanted to send. His White House staff developed the event with the kind of stagecraft usually reserved for political conventions or campaign events. Flags from each state flapped in the background as Mr. Biden, flanked by Vice President Kamala Harris and a union worker from North Carolina, strode to the lectern as Hail to the Chief played.

Now, the challenge for the president is to convince voters that passage of the legislation actually matters to their lives that it is not just a Washington abstraction, debated in the halls of Congress but with little impact on them.

Transportation. The proposal would see tens of billions of dollars in new federal spendinggoing to roads, bridges and transportation programs. Amtrak would see its biggest infusion of money since its inception, and funds would be allocated to programs intended to provide safe commutes for pedestrians.

Climate. Funding would be provided to better prepare the country to face global warming. The Forest Service would get billions of dollars to reduce the effects of wildfires. The bill includes $73 billion to modernize the nations electricity grid to allow it to carry renewable energy.

Resources for underserved communities. A new $2 billion grant program is expected to expand transportation projects in rural areas. The bill would also increase support for Native American communities, allotting $216 million to the Bureau of Indian Affairs for climate-resilience and adaptation efforts.

That effort begins in earnest immediately.

The ceremony on Monday will be followed by a burst of presidential travel aimed at showing the American people real examples of how the new law will pump money into the economy and provide good-paying jobs by upgrading roads, bridges, lead pipes, broadband and other infrastructure.

On Tuesday, Mr. Biden is expected to travel to New Hampshire, where he will speak at a bridge over the Pemigewasset River, which is in critical need of rehabilitation. The next day, he will visit a General Motors electric vehicle assembly plant in Detroit to showcase the billions of dollars to be spent on upgrading electric charging stations around the country.

Now is an opportunity for the president, the vice president, our cabinet, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said on Monday, to be out in the country, connecting the agenda, the impacts on peoples lives, moving beyond the legislative process to talk about how this is going to help them. And were hoping thats going to have an impact.

History suggests the president and his team have their work cut out for them.

Former President Barack Obama campaigned around the country during his first term in office, telling Americans that the Affordable Care Act would bend the cost curve for health insurance and improve coverage. But early glitches in the Obamacare website and opposition from the newly formed Tea Party made the law toxic in many places for many years.

After Mr. Trump passed tax cuts early in his tenure, he hosted a similar celebration (though without the bipartisan sheen) and then failed to sell it to the broader public. Throughout his tenure, the tax cuts remained a largely partisan victory.

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Biden Got His Bipartisan Win. Now, Reality Sets In. - The New York Times

Protesters take part in the Women's March and Rally for Abortion Justice in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 2. The demonstration targeted Senate Bill 8, a state law that bans nearly all abortions as early as six weeks in a pregnancy, making no exceptions for survivors of rape or incest. SERGIO FLORES/Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Protesters take part in the Women's March and Rally for Abortion Justice in Austin, Texas, on Oct. 2. The demonstration targeted Senate Bill 8, a state law that bans nearly all abortions as early as six weeks in a pregnancy, making no exceptions for survivors of rape or incest.

The SAFE Alliance in Austin helps survivors of child abuse, sexual assault and domestic violence. Back before Texas' new abortion law went into effect, the organization counseled a 12-year-old girl who had been repeatedly raped by her father.

Piper Stege Nelson, chief public strategies officer for the SAFE Alliance, says the father didn't let the young girl leave the house.

"She got pregnant," Nelson says. "She had no idea about anything about her body. She certainly didn't know that she was pregnant."

The girl was eventually able to get help, but if this had happened after Sept. 1, when the state law went into effect, her options would have been severely curtailed, Nelson says.

In Texas, abortions are now banned as early as six weeks into a pregnancy. The law, Senate Bill 8, is currently the most restrictive ban on the procedure in effect in the country. According to a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist national poll, Texas' law is unpopular across the political spectrum.

Notably, the law also makes no exceptions for people who are victims of rape or incest. Social workers in Texas say that's causing serious harm to sexual assault survivors in the state.

"Devastating" for survivors of repeated rape and abuse

While many people don't realize they are pregnant until after 6 weeks, Nelson says this is a particular problem for those who are being repeatedly raped or abused.

That's because to cope with the trauma of the abuse, they often grow numb to what's happening to their bodies.

"That dissociation can lead to a detachment from reality and the fact that she's pregnant," Nelson says. "And so, there again, she is not going to know that she is pregnant by six weeks and she's not going to be able to resolve that pregnancy."

Monica Faulkner, a social worker in Austin who has worked with sexual assault survivors, says not having the option of terminating a pregnancy will make recovering from an assault even harder.

"The impact of finally coming forward and then being told there are no options for you is devastating," says Faulkner, who directs the Institute for Child and Family Wellbeing at the University of Texas at Austin.

Being forced to carry a pregnancy to term can be harmful financially, psychologically and, sometimes, physically. For survivors, that further strips away agency, Nelson says, after their sense of safety and control has already been violated.

"And so when you have something like SB 8," Nelson says, "what it is doing is, it's further taking control and power away from the survivor right at the moment when they need that power and control over their lives to begin healing."

Faulkner says it's important to give sexual assault survivors options on how to move forward in their lives. She says SB 8 "clearly is taking away any choice that they have."

Public opinion, even in Texas, favors exceptions to strict bans

For decades, public opinion even in Texas has been pretty consistent about allowing some exceptions to laws that restrict abortion. Most Americans believe there should be exceptions to strict abortion bans.

Carole Joffe, a professor and sociologist who studies abortion policy at the Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health at the University of California, San Francisco, says that despite public opinion on the matter, most of the anti-abortion bills introduced across the country in recent years haven't included exceptions for rape or incest.

"What we have seen over the years is a dramatic escalation," she says. "I think what Texas shines a bright spotlight on is what disdain we have for the needs of women and girls, or people who can get pregnant even if they don't identify as female."

The history of these types of exceptions is somewhat complicated. Joffe notes that toward the end of the 20th century, it was more common than now for states to include exceptions for rape and incest.

She says this trend to drop exceptions for rape and incest started about 10 years ago, after the Tea Party gained power in Congress and in many statehouses. As many legislatures became more politically conservative, anti-abortion groups started gaining more influence in the lawmaking process.

Anti-abortion movement has a tightening hold on state legislatures

Meanwhile, even as some state legislatures have been increasing the restrictions on abortion, the public views have really remained quite stable," Joffe says, with a sentiment that abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest. "The kind of restrictions we are seeing are the product of growing power in state legislatures of the anti-abortion movement," she says.

In 2019, a coalition of anti-abortion groups sent letters to national Republican Party officials following the passage of a controversial abortion law in Alabama. In it, groups asked GOP leaders to "reconsider decades-old talking points" regarding exceptions for rape and incest.

In Texas, the growing power of hardline conservatives in the state has helped anti-abortion successfully push for more restrictive laws.

John Seago, the legislative director with Texas Right To Life an influential anti-abortion group that pushed for SB 8, says the political shifts in the Texas legislature have made it easier to enact stricter abortion laws.

"In the last ten years, in Texas, our Republican majority has been growing," he says. "And kind of right around 2011/2013 we were really having enough votes to pass strong legislation."

And by "strong" Seago means not having to compromise on things like allowing abortions when severe fetal abnormalities are detected. Texas got rid of those exceptions a few years ago. And now that the new law in Texas doesn't exempt rape and incest, Seago says, it's more consistent with the underlying philosophy that groups like his hold.

"We are talking about innocent human life that it is not their crime, it was not their heinous behavior that victimized this woman," he says. "And so why should they receive the punishment?"

The problem of pregnancies arising from sexual assault is not a small one. One study estimates that almost 3 million women in the U.S. have become pregnant following a rape.

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How sexual assault survivors are harmed by the Texas abortion law : Shots - Health News - NPR

Usually, its the party out of power that frets about whether it will ever win again. This time, its the party in control of government thats staring into the political wilderness.

Democrats now have a Washington trifecta command of the White House and both chambers of Congress. If the results of last weeks elections in Virginia and elsewhere are any indication, they may not retain it after next Novembers midterm elections. And a decade or longer may pass before they win a trifecta again.

The unusual structure of American government, combined with the electorates reflexive instinct to check the party in power, makes it hard for any party to retain a hold on both the White House and Congress for long.

Since World War II, political parties have waited an average of 14 years to regain full control of government after losing it. Only one president Harry Truman has lost Congress and retaken it later. In every other case, the presidents party regained a trifecta only after losing the White House.

It would be foolish to predict the next decade of election results. Still, todays Democrats will have a hard time defying this long history. Not only do the Democrats have especially slim majorities, but they face a series of structural disadvantages in the House and the Senate that make it difficult to translate popular vote majorities into governing majorities.

The specter of divided government is a bitter one for Democrats.

The party has won the national popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections but has nonetheless struggled to amass enough power to enact its agenda. That has added to the high stakes in the ongoing negotiations over the large Democratic spending package, which increasingly looks like a last chance for progressives to push an ambitious agenda.

And it has helped spur the kind of acrimonious internal Democratic debate over the partys message and strategy that would usually follow an electoral defeat, with moderates and progressives clashing over whether the partys highly educated activist base needs to take a back seat for the party to cling to its majority. The strong Republican showing in Virginia and New Jersey last week has prompted yet another round of recriminations.

But with such a long history of the presidents party struggling to hold on to power, one wonders whether any policy, tactic or message might help Democrats escape divided government.

The political winds seem to blow against the presidents party almost as soon as a new party seizes the White House. For decades, political scientists have observed a so-called thermostatic backlash in public opinion, in which voters instinctively move to turn down the temperature when government runs too hot in either partys favor. The pattern dates back as long as survey research and helps explain why the election of Barack Obama led to the Tea Party, or how Donald Trumps election led to record support for immigration.

The presidents party faces additional burdens at the ballot box. A sliver of voters prefers gridlock and divided government and votes for a check and balance against the president. And the party out of power tends to enjoy a turnout advantage, whether because the presidents opponents are resolved to stop his agenda or because of complacency by the presidents supporters.

What to Know About the 2021 Virginia Election

While Democrats can still hope to avoid losing control of Congress in 2022, Mr. Bidens sagging approval ratings make it seem increasingly unlikely that they will. Historically, only presidents with strong approval ratings have managed to avoid the midterm curse. And with Democrats holding only the most tenuous majorities in the House and the Senate, any losses at all would be enough to break the trifecta.

If the Democrats are going to get a trifecta again, 2024 would seem to be their best chance. The presidents party usually bounces back when the president seeks re-election, perhaps because presidential elections offer a clear choice between two sides, not merely a referendum on the party in power. And in the House, a Democratic rebound in 2024 is very easy to imagine, even if far from assured.

Democratic panic is rising. Less than a year after taking power in Washington, the party faces a grim immediate futureas it struggles to energize voters and continues to lose messaging wars to Republicans.

The Senate, however, may be a different and ultimately bleaker story for Democrats.

In the short term, the presidents party is relatively insulated from midterm losses in the Senate, since only one-third of the seats are up for grabs. And the presidents party usually doesnt have to defend much in its first midterm, as it has often already lost many of the contested seats six years earlier when the party out of power fared well en route to last winning the White House. The same thing insulates some Democratic losses in 2022.

But if 2024 represents an opening for a Democratic bounce-back in the House, it may not offer as favorable an opportunity in the Senate. Democrats will have no opportunity to reclaim any Senate seats they might lose in 2022. And they will need to defend the seats they won six years earlier, in their 2018 midterm rout, including some in otherwise reliably Republican states such as West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. To hold or regain the Senate and a trifecta they might need all of those seats.

The Democratic grip on the Senate is dependent on holding Republican-leaning states because the Democrats are at a significant disadvantage in the chamber. The party tends to excel in a relatively small number of populous states, but every state receives two senators, regardless of population.

The size of the Democratic disadvantage in the Senate can be overstated: Mr. Biden won 25 states, after all, and the Democrats control the chamber today by the margin of Vice President Kamala Harriss tiebreaking vote.

But the Democratic majority is tenuous, and there are few opportunities to solidify it: There are only 27 states where Mr. Biden was within five points of victory in 2020. And since there are only 19 states where Mr. Biden won by more than he did nationwide, Republicans could easily flip many seats if they benefit from a favorable political environment.

With Republicans commanding such formidable structural advantages in the chamber, some Democrats fear they could be reduced to just 43 Senate seats by the end of the 2024 election. If Mr. Biden won re-election, Republicans could claim even more seats in 2026. The path back to a Democratic trifecta would be daunting.

Even if Democrats do hold down their Senate losses next year, it would still be a long road back to control of the chamber. They might struggle to win it back until theres a new Republican president, when the benefits of being the party out of power will again work to their advantage.

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Why Democrats May Have a Long Wait if They Lose Their Grip on Washington - The New York Times