The calendar may say June, but what promises to be a bruising 2022 election cycle is unofficially underway in Texas, with candidates and potential candidates already crisscrossing the state, hitting up their supporters for money and testing campaign slogans.
Billboards for Republican Don Huffines for governor dot the interstates as Texans head to the beach this summer. Meanwhile potential Republican gubernatorial candidate Allen West, of Garland, is speaking to GOP activists from the Dallas Metroplex to the coastline, leading to speculation that he, too, could jump into the race.
Democrat Beto ORourke hasnt announced whether hell run for governor, but he just finished a 22-city road trip reminiscent of his go-everywhere U.S. Senate campaign in 2018, making it clear he hasnt ruled it out either.
And while all that is going on, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is trying to shore up his right flank by traveling to the Texas border this week with former President Donald Trump at his side to deliver a tough-on-border-security message.
Its all earlier than we are used to and earlier than what weve seen in past years, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science professor.
The secretary of state wont even start qualifying candidates to run for governor and other state offices until November.
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Though both major parties are at a crossroads, it is mainly Republicans who are hastening the 2022 cycle, in part because those launching primary challenges have to get to work early if they hope to knock off incumbents who often have more money and name recognition. Rottinghaus said that means the candidates need to assess early how far they can go to appeal to Trump Republicans without alienating moderates who will be needed in the ever-tightening battles for statewide offices such as governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.
Then there is the dramatically changing electorate in Texas.
Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a press conference on details of his plan for Texas to build a border wall and provide $250 million in state funds as a "down payment."
Since Abbotts last reelection, in 2018, the state has added 1.7 million more voters. And over the last eight years, 3.5 million more voters have been added. Counties such as Harris and Bexar, where statewide Republicans won races just eight years ago, went so heavily for Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election that he came within 6 percentage points of winning Texas the best showing for a Democratic presidential candidate in a quarter-century.
In the last two weeks, two high-profile Republicans announced primary challenges to Attorney General Ken Paxton, two others have filed to run for state land commissioner, and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick announced they are staying put and running for reelection, instead of challenging Abbott, as some predicted.
Democrats face the same primary timeline, but ORourke can afford to wait longer, based on his name identification and proven fundraising skills. George W. Bush did the same in 1993 when he announced his campaign for governor against Democrat Ann Richards one year from the general election.
Lesser known Democrats dont have that same luxury and have had to start even earlier. Democrat Mike Collier, who ran against Patrick in 2018, announced his campaign for lieutenant governor in April. And in the attorney generals race, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, a Democrat, announced his candidacy seven months ago.
Abbott starts his reelection campaign with major advantages. Having been a statewide officeholder for 25 years and after a year and a half of controlling the Texas response to the pandemic Abbott, 63, has a name recognition advantage over any potential challenger and more than $39 million in his campaign account to fend them off.
But even with all that, Abbott moved quickly to get Trumps endorsement an acknowledgment that Trump still holds major sway with GOP voters, particularly the super voters who dont miss primary elections.
Governor Greg Abbott will continue to be a great leader for the Lone Star State, and has my complete and total endorsement for reelection. He will never let you down! Trump said in a statement in early June.
Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a campaign stop at the Jefferson County Republican Party's office in Port Neches in 2018.
On Wednesday, Abbott and Trump will tour parts of the Texas border a favorite issue of Trumps but also one that Abbott has spent considerable time talking about over the last two months as Texas has seen a record surge of Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing into Texas between Del Rio and Brownsville.
I thank President Trump for his leadership, and I will continue to fight for the values that make Texas the greatest state in America, Abbott said after Trump endorsed him.
But all that Trump support isnt deterring Abbotts best-known challenger. Huffines, a former state senator from Dallas, has already put up dozens of billboards around Texas announcing his campaign with border security themes. One on Interstate 35 in Williamson County calls for building a border wall; another near Corpus Christi along Interstate 37 calls for stopping giving illegals our money.
I am the clear Trump candidate in the Texas governors race, Huffines said.
Huffines made finishing the wall a central part of his campaign and is reminding people that he made that pledge before Abbott committed Texas to doing more work on wall construction.
When I am governor, we will finish building the wall, Huffines said.
Those two may have serious competition in the race soon if West jumps in. West, the current Republican Party of Texas chairman, is also a former congressman, early tea party leader and author who continues to have a national following. West announced he will resign from his party post in July and has told reporters that hes weighing what his next political move is specifically refusing to rule out running for governor.
Any primary challenge for Abbott is a novelty for the two-term governor. Abbott has been a statewide official for 25 years, including stints as a Texas Supreme Court justice and attorney general, and he never has had a serious primary opponent.
In 2018, he won his primary with 90 percent of the GOP vote and defeated Democrat Lupe Valdez in November by carrying 56 percent of the vote to Valdezs 43 percent.
On the Democratic side, it is all about ORourkes next move. While the former congressman from El Paso has not announced hes running for anything, hes acting very much like a candidate by traveling the state, hosting a major rally at the Texas Capitol about voting rights and sending out fundraising appeals for his political action committee that continues to raise money.
Asked if hes going to run for governor, ORourke said his focus now is helping Texas House and Senate Democrats fight what he calls voter suppression bills.
Im going to see this fight through to the finish, ORourke said. And once we do that, we can start thinking about other things.
A supporter for former U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke holds up a sign at the state Capitol on June 20.
At the June 20 rally he organized, ORourke tried to share the spotlight with other Democrats who could be statewide contenders in 2022 in their own right, whether ORourke runs or not.
State Sen. Royce West of Dallas and state Reps. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas, Gina Hinojosa of Austin and Trey Martinez Fischer of San Antonio were among the speakers. Crockett, Hinojosa and Martinez Fischer were key leaders when Democrats in the House walked out in the closing hours of the Legislature to prevent Republicans from passing a massive elections bill.
But Democrats say they have a deep bench with other potential statewide candidates, including U.S. Reps. Sylvia Garcia of Houston and Veronica Escobar of El Paso both of whom were featured during the Democratic National Convention last summer and county judges such as Harris Countys Lina Hidalgo and Dallas Countys Clay Jenkins who have found themselves in pointed policy disagreements with Abbott over the handling of the pandemic.
At the ORourke-led rally, Democrats made clear that whoever runs is going to lay the blame for the states faulty power grid on Abbott and Republican leaders throughout the government who have run the state for two decades.
Democrats are also watching for how Republicans in the statehouse handle redistricting for the states congressional and legislative districts to see what opportunities there may be to move up the political ladder.
Because census data was delayed by the pandemic, the Legislature is expected to meet in a special session this fall to redraw all the lines including adding two new congressional districts because of Texas continued population growth.
That has created questions about whether the March 1 election will even be able to go on. Republican leaders in the Legislature have already floated the possibility of moving the Texas primaries to next May to give lawmakers more time to draw districts and get them through potential court challenges.
jeremy.wallace@chron.com
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Is June too soon? 2022 elections off to early start in Texas Houston Chronicle Wallace, J - Houston Chronicle