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Just before the election, I argued that third parties were unlikely to play a major role this year. The deck was seemingly stacked against them an unpopular incumbent president and expected high turnout would make it harder for them to be competitive and garner votes from Americans displeased with both major parties.

It turns out that I was half-right, and half-wrong.

Its true that third-party votes declined from 2016 to 2020, as people who may have voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 decided to vote for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

But it turned out that in a race that hinged on relatively small margins between Biden and Trump, one third-party candidate Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen may have helped turn the tide toward Biden in several states. She didnt generate massive numbers, but she didnt have to. Her votes were close enough to the margin to suggest that some voters who may have leaned toward Trump (or perhaps simply not voted for president at all) voted for her.

Many libertarians think this bodes well for the future. As Libertarian Party national chair Joe Bishop-Henchman told me, America didnt want Trump anymore but didnt want Bidens policies.

More people voted for Joe Biden than for any presidential candidate in American history. This gain happened not simply by generating votes from Democrats (or moderate or former Republicans), but from independents and the estimated 5 million voters who favored a third-party candidate in 2016.

Though votes are still being tabulated, so far, the number of third-party votes has dropped precipitously from 2016 to 2020, from more than 5 percent to perhaps less than 2 percent. Many of those third-party voters ultimately voted for Joe Biden: As Reason Magazines Matt Welch explained, while Trumps voting percentage in states like Michigan and Arizona mirrored his 2016 performance, votes that went to third-party candidates like Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson in 2016 appear to have gone to Biden instead.

To be clear, we dont know if 2016 voters and 2020 voters are the same people third-party voters in 2016 may have stayed home in 2020, meaning that Joe Biden received a critical number of votes from first-time voters.

But in Wisconsin, where the gap between Biden and Trump stands currently at 20,557 votes, Jo Jorgensen received 38,393 votes. And in Arizona, where the gap between Biden and Trump is an even tighter 12,813 votes, Jorgensen received 50,636 votes nearly four times the margin between Biden and Trump.

Both of those states, which Trump won in 2016, went to Biden in 2020.

This is an almost exact reversal of what happened in 2016, when third-party candidates like Green Party nominee Jill Stein and then-Libertarian Party nominee Johnson received thousands more votes than the ultimate margin between Trump and then-Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton. As NBC News reported the day after the 2016 election:

In Michigan which was a must-win for Clinton, but was still too close to call as of Wednesday morning, according to NBC News projections Johnson and Stein had collectively taken a little more than 222,400 votes, or about 5 percent of the vote there. Trump, in contrast, held just over a 15,600-vote lead over Clinton.

In Florida, which was crucial to Trumps victory, Johnson, Stein and two other third-party candidates on the ballot collectively drew over 293,000 votes more than twice the 128,000-plus votes that Trump led with as of early Wednesday morning.

Several prominent Republicans, like former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, expressed irritation at the success of the Libertarian Party (and arguably, libertarianism itself) this election cycle.

And the founder of Libertarians for Trump, Loyola University economist and anarcho-capitalist Walter E. Block, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on November 8 that libertarians had spoiled the election, arguing that on the Libertarian-O-Meter, Mr. Trump scores much higher than Mr. Biden because of his judicial nominations and deregulatory policies. He concluded, Pardon me while I beat my head against the wall. How could libertarians in purple states be so stupid?

But libertarianism is not synonymous with Trumpism (or conservatism, for that matter), and Jorgensens campaign aimed to separate herself from both the Democratic and Republican party nominees, arguing for the federal decriminalization of all drugs and the defunding of the Drug Enforcement Administration, for instance, and saying that the United States should pull out of NATO and the United Nations and become one giant Switzerland.

So while some votes for Jorgensen may have come from conservatives, its also possible that Libertarian Party voters are just that: libertarians, a voting cohort that may not have voted for Trump (or even voted at all) had there been no libertarians on the ballot.

As David Boaz argued at the Cato Institute, In the end, if you ask whether Jo Jorgensens 1.8 million or so votes, or more specifically her votes in states decided by narrow margins, swung the election, the answer is no: had there been no Libertarian on the ballot, those voters would have been split among Biden, Trump, and not voting, with a tilt toward Biden (or maybe against Trump).

Joe Bishop-Henchman told me that Jorgensens campaign was aimed at protecting freedom, adding, She suggested maybe we should pay more attention to what power weve given up, rather than just who we choose to wield it. And as to the increasingly fractured relationship between libertarianism and mainline conservatism, he said, A decade ago there were still a lot of people who had dreams that the Republican Party would champion smaller government and more liberty, and the Tea Party wave used a lot of that rhetoric. Those dreams are dead now, for to be Republican now is to be pro-Trump, anti-free trade, and anti-immigrant.

And hes optimistic about the future of the libertarian movement, particularly as the country likely faces a divided government moving forward. Polling shows most Americans are with Libertarians on free trade, open immigration, criminal justice reform, fiscal responsibility, ending the drug war, and bringing the troops home, he told me. If a Democratic president and Republican Senate can come together on those things, great! If they dont and end up in gridlock, well be ready in 2022 and 2024.

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Donald Trumps attack on the election has ignited a firestorm of fundraising by his campaign and allied groups to finance efforts to hunt out supposed fraud. On Monday, Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, asked her Twitter followers to contribute to an election integrity project run by Matt Braynard, a GOP operative who was looking for $500,000 to underwrite his endeavor. As a former data specialist on Trumps 2016 campaign, Braynard had experience in this field. But Martin didnt mention one notable project Braynard not long ago pursued: creating a literary journal that celebrated a real-life political assassin.

Braynard was the leader of the data team for Trumps 2016 campaign until leavingin March 2016. At the time, Politico reported that neither Braynard nor Corey Lewandowski, then the campaign manager, would explain the departurea move that left some campaign officials unable to access data files. (Braynard tells Mother Jones that he was laid off over a minor HR dispute with Lewandowski.) According to an online bio,Braynard had worked as a political analyst at the Republican National Committee and for GOP pollster Frank Luntz. After exiting the Trump campaign, he formed a nonprofit called Look Ahead America to increase conservative voter turnout.

That online bio also notes that Braynard is an award winning short fiction writer. In that vein, he founded a literary magazine in 2017 as part his MFA coursework at Columbia University. Called Otoya, it billed itself as a Literary Journal of the New Nationalism.

The publication, Braynard explained in a brief editors note, was named in honor of Otoya Yamaguchi. In 1960, Yamaguchi, a 17-year-old rightwing ultranationalist in Japan, brutally murdered Inejir Asanuma, a member of parliament and the chairman of the Japan Socialist Party, at a televised election debate. Yamaguchi stabbed Asanuma with a short samurai sword. The image capturing the horrific moment became one of the most famous press photos of the 20th century. After he was arrested, Yamaguchi committed suicide and became a fallen hero of the Japanese far right.

A drawing of Yamaguchi graced the cover, as Braynards note described the murderer as a nationalist hero who heroically killed a communist. He pointed out that Yamaguchi shared a birthdate with another great patriot who put bayonets through the enemies who threatened his nation, George Washington.

In an interview this week, Braynard explained his admiration for Yamaguchi. Braynard recalled visiting Cambodia, where he says he saw piles of skulls of victims who had been murdered during the bloody reign of the Khmer Rouge. I think [Yamaguchi] may have prevented the same thing from happening in his own country, Braynard says. He should be memorialized and remembered. Only one issue of Otoya was published.

Braynards voter fraud project was set up days after the 2020 election, when he established a GoFundMe page seeking half a million dollars to uncover purportedly illegitimate votes in swing states using Social Security and change-of-address databases. GoFundMe removed the page, criticizing it for attempting to spread misleading information about the election.

He relaunched at GiveSendGowhich bills itself as the #1 Free Christian Crowdfunding Sitewhere, as of Friday, he had raised more than $580,000. His fundraising page states, The funds from this campaign will be received by Matt Braynard. But it also notes, Matt Braynard will personally receive zero dollars. Braynard says that all the money he collects will be spent on his research and that he will not be pocketing any.

On his Twitter feed, Braynard provides updates on leads his team is chasing and has suggested that having met his original funding goal, he may ask for more. He tells Mother Jones he has already spent about $500,000 acquiring various databases and hiring call centers to contact people who he suspects may be connected to voting irregularities. He estimates he needs another $300,000: Every day we find more ways to spend money.

The New York Times has reported that election officials across the country say there is no evidence of significant voter fraud. Yet Braynard contends the matter remains open, as his team conducts up to six different analyses of voting in each of six swing states. Braynard claims to have found instances of people casting ballots in two different states, including 631 cases in Pennsylvaniaeven if verified, not remotely enough to change the results.

Braynard still insists this finding is significant. If there is an organized attempt at voter fraud, we will only detect a few cases, he says, adding that he hopes his research may bring enough pressure to encourage judges to order remedies including recounts or audits. He notes hes been sharing his research with Trumps legal team, and they are asking us to do more.

Braynard maintains that he didnt walk into this with any preconceived notions regarding the possibility of fraud in the election. He just wants to know, is this really a clean election? Asked if he expects his findings to be trusted, given that hes a Trump fan, he replies that anyone will be able to check his figures. He adds, And I am the biggest fan.

Continued here:
Former Trump Aide Challenging Vote Count Once Praised a Right-Wing Assassin - Mother Jones

Staff

America got it right. So did President-elect Joe Biden, claiming the nations highest office over the weekend with a call to unity and civility. It is a time to heal, he said. Hes right, but it will take time. Time for jubilation on the left to give way to a pragmatic focus on the future. Time for disappointment on the right to fade, yielding to acceptance not just of the election results, but of the necessity to abandon combative partisanship in favor of a renewed commitment to comity and compromise. Just as the human body requires nutrients to heal, our democracy is nourished when good people set aside their differences to focus on the shared values and common cause that bind us together as Americans.

Toward that end, we think its time for Republican leaders in Michigan and elsewhere to renounce their foolish and damaging efforts to challenge the integrity of our elections, undermining public confidence in our democracy. It is time for reasonable Republicans to stand up and speak out against the insidious infection of Trumpism that has led the nation astray and left their party in a shambles. It is time to remember the legacy of moderate Michigan Republicans like Bill Milliken, a leader who eschewed partisanship in favor of statesmanship, and who worked in good faith with anyone who was dedicated to advancing the common good of the people of Michigan.

Sadly, the tenor of our national politics is far too bitter to imagine a back-to-the-future reconstruction of the Republican Party. But there is always room to move in the direction of reason and moderation, especially at a time when the status quo is dominated by division and derision. It is indeed time for Trump and Biden supporters alike to set aside the acrimony and accusations and look for common ground.

It is time for Americans of every stripe to rally around the cause of healing the deep wounds in our body politic that have festered for the past four years. It is time to double down on racial justice and equity, on securing health care and economic security for all, and on embracing the notion that environmental protection and economic development are not mutually exclusive. And it is time to consider issues that we will never agree on abortion comes to mind as settled questions of law and move on.

It wasnt so long ago, before Trump was something more than a wealthy game show host, that moderate Republicans lived in fear of being primaried by the anti-tax Tea Party. Now they live in fear of the far right Trumpian fringe that worships guns and white supremacy. Will the Trump Cult continue to hold sway over Republicans who would otherwise be inclined to work with Democrats? Lets hope that courage and resolve take the place of fear and blind fealty, at least for some, giving us hope that the great American experiment will again rise to meet our lofty expectations.

This election laid bare once again a tale of two Americas, one largely urban that favors Democrats and one largely rural that favors Republicans. Its as if two different nations co-exist within the same borders. There was a time not so long ago when those two nations lived together in peace, for the most part. Now the two sides look at each other across ideological battle lines not so different from the DMZ that separates North and South Korea. How can we move back toward magnanimity and mutual understanding? It is a question that each of us must ponder in the challenging days ahead.

It is often said that time heals all wounds. Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy, late matriarch of one of Americas most revered political families, dismissed that notion. The wounds remain, she said, reflecting on a life marked by unfathomable tragedy. In time, the mind, protecting its sanity, covers them with scar tissue and the pain lessens. But it is never gone. Scar tissue is just now forming over our national wounds. Let us all commit to leaving it alone for a while. In due time, although our pain will only have lessened, let us move forward together as one nation with one purpose: to restore the American ideal of liberty, justice and equality for all.

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The CP Edit: Time to Heal - City Pulse

A wide array of far-right groups and Trump supporters are planning to descend on the nations capital Saturday amid heightened tensions over the results of the presidential election.

The mix of demonstrators gathering in downtown Washington, D.C., where theyll be met with counterprotesters, is sparking fears that the events could turn violent.

The main rally known by various unofficial namessuch as the Million MAGA March, Stop the Steal DC and March for Trump appears focused on showing an outpouring of support for President TrumpDonald John TrumpBiden has spoken with some GOP senators, chief of staff says Trump told advisers he could announce 2024 bid shortly after certification of Biden win: report Ivy League cancels winter sports amid US COVID-19 pandemic surge MORE as he refuses to concede the race to President-elect Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden has spoken with some GOP senators, chief of staff says Trump told advisers he could announce 2024 bid shortly after certification of Biden win: report Obama 'troubled' by GOP attempts to cast doubt on election results: 'That's a dangerous path' MORE, citing unsubstantiated claims of widespread voter fraud.

Organizers and right-wing media figures, along with the White House officials, have predicted a massive turnout, though similar events during Trumps presidency have fizzled out.

Fox News host Sean HannitySean Patrick HannityRubio: GOP must rebrand as party of 'multiethnic, multiracial, working-class' voters The tribal journalism of cable news is at a crossroads Why this election won't bring us together MORE, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany and Trump have all promoted the rally.

Heartwarming to see all of the tremendous support out there, especially the organic Rallies that are springing up all over the Country, including a big one on Saturday in D.C., the president saidin Friday afternoon tweet that was labeled by Twitter. I may even try to stop by and say hello. This Election was Rigged, from Dominion all the way up & down!

The only group to receive a permit by the city was Women for America First. The permit was issued for 10,000 people at Freedom Plaza on Saturday at noon. The group, spearheaded by former Tea Party activist Amy Kremer, was one of the first to promote the March for Trump.

Kremer told USA Today that her organization is not coordinating with any groups planning activities in D.C. on Saturday.

Promotion for the rally started among various online groups that support Trump.

Although I'm sure this rally will have Trump supporters who do not wish to cause harm, are fully intent on protesting peacefully and lawfully, the reason this rally is happening is because the some extreme elements of the right wing movement have come together to organize it, Jared Holt, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Councils Digital Forensics Research Lab, told The Hill.

The conservative outlet Right Side Broadcasting Network pushed the Million MAGA March moniker.

Nick Fuentes, who has a history of making anti-Semitic and racist remarks, has advertised the rally to his Groyper Army, while Stewart Rhodes, head of the anti-government militia group the Oath Keepers, has said he will be in D.C. and that he has armed men standing by outside of the nations capital.

The head of self-described western chauvinist Proud Boys, known for instigating skirmishes, posted on Telegram that they will have a presence in D.C. on Saturday as well.

The group garnered national attention after Trump said at a presidential debate in September that they should stand back and stand by. After widespread backlash, he said the Proud Boys should stand down.

Supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory who believe in the baseless claim that Trump is working to expose a child-eating cabal of elites in the media and Democratic politics have also said they will be joining the main rally.

Saturdays events are expected to draw of smattering of other right-wing figures, including Infowarss Alex Jones, conspiracy theorist Mike Cernovich, conservative activist Scott Presler, and Andrew Anglin, founder of the neo-Nazi website Daily Stormer.

But the majority of rally participants on Saturday are expected to be more traditional and mainstream Trump supporters, experts said.

Even in their own party theyre very fringe, Holt said. I think what were going to see is these larger crowds of people who are going to this event because it's been plugged by Kayleigh McEnany, Sean Hannity, sort of mainstream GOP figures. Mixed up there there is going to be members of these extremist groups and militia movement groups which is going to make the whole situation from the outside look kind of confusing.

A spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police Department said authorities will be monitoring and assessing the situation as it unfolds. The spokesperson also noted that D.C. law prohibits open carry near rallies and that if anyone is found to be in violation of these laws, they would be subject to arrest.

Researchers warn that there are elevated risks of violence at the rally, especially given the Proud Boyss penchant for brawls and threats from militia groups, though groups like the Oath Keepers have not followed through on previous threats.

This rally comes at a time where passions among Trump supporters are extremely high, Holt said. And some of the more extreme groups that are planning to show up here have been speaking in increasingly exaggerated rhetoric, talking about coups and civil wars.

While the disparate groups expected to be in attendance Saturday have distinct goals, according to Media Matters for America President Angelo Carusone, one unifying desire is to back Trump after his election loss.

There's a core of people that believe that if they show up that will either inspire Trump into ascending into a more aggressive posture, or that it will sort of ward off, or signal to all the others ... that Trump has this massive show of support, he told The Hill.

The risk of violence becomes more likely if the right-wing antagonists are able to provoke responses from counterprotesters.

The They/Them collective has planned a F*ck MAGA counterprotest at the Supreme Court when the Trump-focused rally is slated to kick off, while local antifacist group All Out DC has scheduled another demonstration nearby.

In addition to local police, D.C. Mayor Muriel BowserMuriel BowserMcEnany predicts 'quite large' turnout at 'Million MAGA March' in DC DC, Washington metro area set new records for COVID-19 cases DC officials preparing for Proud Boys protest over the weekend MORE (D) has said the District will be keeping a close eye on planned activities.

Christopher Rodriguez, director of homeland security and emergency management for the city, said that officials are expecting relatively small turnout.

More:
Far-right groups plan DC rallies for Trump as tensions grow | TheHill - The Hill

The day has come: Donald Trump has been voted out of office. While many Americans are taking this time to celebrate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris success, it would be naive to think that Trumpism, Trumps particular brand of populist ideology, is leaving with him. Like it or not, Trump shattered the Republican status quo, inspiring a reordering of U.S. politics that will land him among the most influential people of the decade, if not the century. Many people across the political spectrum are now wondering what is in store for the future of the Grand Old Party (GOP)a party that, because of Trump, is now sitting on a platform virtually unrecognizable from where it was just a decade ago.

A common sentiment that arises in assessing Trumpist politics is that he did not explicitly start a movement; he simply poured gasoline on a preexisting flame. This claim is essentially true, but is slightly misleading and makes broad generalizations about the GOP. Since the Cold War era, the Republican Party has tied its evangelical and business-elite libertarian wings together through the process of fusionism. These two factions developed separately but were bonded via their shared belief in a strong American military presence to quell what was seen then as the global threat of communism.

The party was actively guided by the business elite wing, and grew to outwardly represent globalism and free-market trade practices. The business-elite libertarians, epitomized by Ronald Reagan, sought to keep in check the nativist, isolationist faction by suppressing its members influence, while relying on their party loyalty. But underneath the surface, intra-party tension was bubbling, evident in the establishment of the Tea Party sect of the GOP in 2009merely one year after the Great Recession in 2008. Many low-income, undereducated evangelical Republicans started to care less (if they ever cared at all) about conservative Republicanism, and instead began to develop a populist, anti-elitist attitude aimed at both Democratic and Republican elitespeople whom they perceived as apathetic to their needs, especially regarding their losses in the financial crisis.

This effect was thoroughly overlooked by the Republican establishment of libertarian business elites. Trump harnessed the Tea Party energy as a political outsider and emboldened the growing sect of the party that never came to terms with Republicanism as the globalist, multicultural free market-praising ideology candidates like George Bush wanted it to be. While other presidential candidates attempted to coast off the Bush familys version of Republicanism, Trump flipped that vision on its head. Unearthing the charade that the libertarians still maintained dominance of the party, Trump spoke up for the evangelical sect that had never consented to the globalization development in Republicanism and felt like they were not being heard. Instead of relying on typical Republican tropes like arguing for less government or protecting Second Amendment rights, Trump opted for an aggressively protectionist and socially conservative approach aimed at targeting working class Americans.

Trump wanted to pull the evangelical sect back into the conversation as a punch in the gut to the libertarian business elites, who the evangelicals felt had condescended them for too long. And it worked. By strategically choosing Mike Pence as Vice President, a faithful evangelical who also received backing from the Koch brothers, Trump curried favor with born-again America, reeling in more than 80 percent of the white evangelical vote in the 2016 election.

It is worth mentioning the trend during the Republican primaries of self-proclaimed Never Trumpers turning into Trump loyalists. These conservative politicians, like Lindsey Graham, quickly saw their bases mesmerized by Trump, and feared that if they did not abandon their Never Trump stance and align with his populist politics they would be ousted by someone in the primary contests who did. So having caused such a collateral impact, what does Trumps absence now mean for the Republican party?

Without Trump there to pick and choose who succeeds and who does not, politicians may have a little more wiggle room in adapting their platforms. However, they do have to keep in mind that in many cases, their base was also Trumps base, so diverting from the former Presidents stances could be interpreted as sacrilegious by their constituencies. For the libertarian business elite to make a comeback, Trumps presence will need to take up significantly less space in the party, a choice that he does not appear to be making anytime soon. On the other hand, his bombastic energy is so personal that it would be extremely hard to replicate, except by perhaps Donald Trump Jr., whom many speculate might make a presidential run in 2024.

Furthermore, the 2020 election results are telling as to where the party is heading and what voter blocs they are targeting, both of which pertain to Trumpisms internal influence on the GOP. Trumps entire political character centers around economic nationalism coupled with extreme social conservatism. Right now, that nationalism hinges on white supremacy, but this election showcased a migration of Latinx voters (historically a voting bloc for the Democratic Party as well as Americas fastest growing minority population) to the GOP. This means that Trumps economic nationalism could turn into civic nationalismif Trumpists ditch the race-baiting tactics they could build a young, multi-racial coalition of Republicans. Republicanism is slowly becoming favorable among poor American districts as wealth inequality spreads. Ironically, the Democrats have traditionally pitched themselves as the peoples party, but are now overwhelmingly supported in the nations richest counties. Meanwhile, Republicans are starting to sneakily co-opt social programs presented by progressives without calling them left-wing.

Take, for instance, Bernie Sanders primary success over Joe Biden in states such as California and Nevada with high Latinx populations. In the presidential election Biden significantly underperformed nationally with Latinx voters, a concerning foreshadowing for the Democratic National Conventions (DNC) relation with Americas fastest growing ethnic population. As the right starts to out-left the left, the DNC is quickly losing its credibility, particularly among working American Latinx voters. The GOP knows that this growing Latinx voter-bloc is relatively socially conservative, yet economically liberal. Since Latinx voters are less likely to identify outright as liberal than white Democrats, the election results show that its easier for them to jump from backing a Sanders platform to backing a GOP contender if the GOP can appropriate left-leaning economic policies without explicitly calling them left-wing. For example, Marco Rubio recently called for common-good capitalism, in a speech in which he criticized the ethics of businesses making excessive profits while excluding workers from sharing in those profits.

Trump has tapped into an aspect of economic nationalism that is explicitly racialized. But the Republican takeaway is that it doesnt necessarily have to be. With traditional geopolitical barriers having been broken and reorganized, and the Democratic Party transitioning from the peoples party to that of the elites, the working-class vote is up for grabs. If the now-imploded Republican Party can sponsor a Trumpist ideology in 2024 that drops the race-baiting and transforms economic nationalism into civic nationalism, they may be able to convince a majority of working-class Americans to adopt Republicanism. This approach would entail a nuanced take on the Republican Party that denounces neoliberal free-market ideologies, while promising working-class Americans social programs typically reserved for far-left supporters of Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. You might think this approach is strange for Republicans, but remember, Trump won with a non-traditional emphasis that abandoned the tenets of 20th-century conservatism. If the DNC wont listen to the progressive wing of their party, they are leaving a fiscally liberal gap for conservatives to seize in the name of anti-elitism and anti-neoliberalism.

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Trumpism evolves in the Republican Party post-Trump defeat - Miscellany News