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It's anyone's guess who will win the 2020 presidential election. Polls across the country vary, with President Donald Trump leading in some and and former Vice President Joe Biden ahead in others.

Despite what many see as an ever-widening gap between the right and left, it appears some voters are crossing the political aisle. Several well-known Republicans have already decided to jump ship this election cycle. Among those are former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and Cindy McCain, widow of the late Sen. John McCain.

The president's list of supporters from the Democratic Party is not as long, but it does include a former Democratic state legislator in Minnesota, Gary Doty, and former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who was pardoned by Trump in February after being removed from office in 2009 on corruption charges.

It's not only politicians who have had changes of heart. One Tahlequah, Oklahoma, woman, Kimberly Davis, grew up in a religious household in Houston with her siblings and a single mother. Now an atheist, she moved from California to Tahlequah four years ago with her husband.

"I was raised liberal and I didn't even vote for Trump because I was a liberal and I was completely against it," Davis said. "In 2016, when it all started happening, I cried when he was voted in, and my neighbors were shooting off their guns, and I thought, 'I can't believe I live here.'"

While Davis originally felt grief when Trump was elected, she said she's tried to do research and pay less attention to her feelings. She has since formed a different opinion about the 45th president of the United States.

"I just had a complete mental breakdown when Trump was elected. Two months after he was elected, a lot of the facts I was being fed started seeming less real, and there was no backing to it," Davis said. "As a woman, I was always told that I'm a victim and feminist this and feminist that. I was being fed lies and eventually I realized none of that was true."

On the flip side, Tahlequah resident Susan Feller said she would rather be voting for a "qualified Republican," as she said she is concerned Trump does not have the ability to bring the nation together.

"He has enriched himself through the presidency, including costing taxpayers millions of dollars to support his golf habit," said Feller. "He pardoned criminals who support him, which is simply wrong. He has mishandled the pandemic and made it into a political issue."

Though she registered as a Republican when she was 18, Feller shifted away from the GOP when the Tea Party materialized. In 2015, she registered as an independent, and this year, she decided to register as a Democrat.

"I'm hoping if Biden wins, he devotes himself to addressing the anger and hate unleashed by Trump," said Feller. "Listen to the concerns of all citizens. We may not all agree, but we share a country and need to start finding common ground."

While it seems the Republican and Democratic parties are becoming increasingly polarized, it has left many people stuck in the middle, hoping to see some sort of change in the country's political framework. Tahlequah resident Aaron Grant said he has voted the Democratic ticket in the past, but has a much more independent streak these days.

"The two-party system denies too many of us representation," said Grant. "I vote for people over parties these days, and I think a ranked-voting system would open up the possibility of any number of candidates from any number of parties - nullifying the two-party system, giving better representation to those disenfranchised voters, and potentially adding votes to both Democrats and Republicans."

This year, Grant said he will choose Biden if he decides to vote at all. However, he is concerned the gerrymandering of districts can lead to faulty election outcomes. He would prefer to see third-party candidates start to get more attention in today's political climate, as well.

"Current regulations make it nearly impossible for other parties to be listed in this state, and independent parties can't get any traction nationally until every state decides to play ball," said Grant.

Although some voters will shift sides this election, many will stick with the party with which they most affiliate themselves. It's not uncommon for citizens to vote strictly along party lines.

Shannon Grimes, Cherokee County Libertarian Party chair, said it seems like voters are often stuck in abusive relationships with their parties and just don't know how to escape.

"I think perceptions and emotions regarding political parties is a mixed bag," said Grimes. "More and more people are seeing the flip-flopping hypocrisy and becoming somewhat disenchanted. But on the other hand, 'that other party' is worse, and so they continue with what they consider the less bad option. It is tough to break out and away from the psychology of the two-party system."

The Libertarian Party will need more media attention before it can start to collect a greater percentage of the votes, said Grimes. He also pointed out it's the only other party that will have its presidential candidate and her vice presidential pick on the ballot in all 50 states.

"Getting that ballot access is a huge endeavor in and of itself," he said. "The other thing the Libertarian Party needs to do is to locate and support good candidates, especially for smaller and local offices. Thankfully, this is happening. Yes, there are candidates who are running for larger offices even when unlikely to get much traction. But they have too in order to try and maintain ballot access."

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Some voters have change of heart in Trump era - Tahlequah Daily Press

Republicans know their prospects decline as turnout rises for elections. The reason is that the party base of older white voters are more likely to take part in low turnout elections than the Democratic base of minorities and young people. In 1980, political strategist Paul Weyrich, a founder of the modern conservative movement, criticized the goo goo effects with good governance. They want everybody to vote. I do not want everybody to vote, he said. As a matter of fact, our leverage with the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.

More recently, Republicans have said restrictions on voting such as photo identification laws helps the party in diminishing the opposition voting. In 2012, Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Mike Turzai declared that voter identification, which is going to allow Governor Mitt Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania in the election, would be done.

In 2013, while talking about the conservative advantage from low turnout, Scott Tranter of the political consulting firm Optimus said, A lot of us are campaign professionals and we want to do everything we can to help our sides. Sometimes we think that means voter identification, sometimes we think that means longer lines, or whatever it may be.

Ken Emanuelson, a Tea Party leader in Texas, was leading a 2013 meeting on turning out Republicans when a black pastor asked him, What are the Republicans doing to get black people to vote? Emanuelson said, I will be real honest with you. The party does not want black people to vote if they are going to vote nine to one for the Democrats.

The efforts by Republicans to limit voting by Democrats is urgent as the white voter share of the electorate has fallen from 76 percent in 2000 to 67 percent in 2018. In response to a push by Democrats for reforms like same day registration, early voting, and mail voting this year, President Trump said, The things they had in there were crazy. They had levels of voting that if you ever agreed to it, you would never have a Republican elected in this country again. He is not alone on this.

This year, Trump and his conservative allies have launched a blatant voter suppression campaign. They have filed lawsuits all around the country to restrict mail voting and the counting of ballots. They have falsely attacked mail voting as rife with fraud and then encouraged intimidators to go visit polling places. Federal officials appointed by Trump installed Republican donor Louis DeJoy to be director of the Postal Service.

DeJoy enacted changes that slowed down mail and imperiled the timely delivery of mail ballots. These include the dismantling of automatic mail sorting machines, a directive to leave mail behind rather than having late or extra deliveries, and cutbacks with overtime. DeJoy claimed that these changes would improve the economy in his agency ridden by deficits. But the Postal Service has been in the red for years. DeJoy could have shortly deferred austerity measures until the election is done.

Four federal judges have since imposed temporary injunctions on these operational changes at the Postal Service, but it is still unclear how fully DeJoy has complied. Although delivery times have improved since these court orders, as compared to the period before the ascension of DeJoy, mail delivery was still slowed down through last month.

Citizens cannot change Postal Service policies and practices, but we can take the initiative to ensure the delivery of ballots is faster. The solution is to stop sending mail besides ballots, medicines, and other critical items between now and the election. Communicate by call, text, email, private couriers, or social media instead. Delay ordering of packages and pause the sending of brochures until after the election is over.

Republicans and Democrats know that this will be the most momentous election in recent years. We can all contribute to a full and fair vote with the act of observing a mail moratorium for a few weeks.

Allan Lichtman is an election forecaster and a distinguished professor of history at American University. He is the author of The Embattled Vote in America: From the Founding to the Present. He tweets @AllanLichtman.

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Why America needs moratorium on mail until after this election is done | TheHill - The Hill

On Oct. 21, 1967, 100,000 people came together at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington D.C. to protest the Vietnam War. Following several speeches, roughly 50% of those gathered walked over to the Pentagon where a few hundred people then attempted to levitate the building.

The striking civic protest against the Vietnam War was noteworthy not just for its unusual call to action, but for the new and inventive ways Americans were flexing their right to peaceably assemble. And the Yippies who put on the event inspired countless creative takes on what protest could be, from the Womens Art Movement (WAM) to the AIDS Coalition to Unleash Power (ACT UP).

The tradition of protesting in the United States is older than the country itself. This year, we've seen that historic institution full force with Black Lives Matter protests and, more generally, protests against the storied, systemic racial injustice in the United States. The May 25 death of George Floyd, a Black man, held under the knee of a white police officer in Minneapolis, sparked protests across U.S. cities and around the world. The protesters have called for justice for Floyd and other Black peoplefrom Breonna Taylor to Elijah McClainwho were killed by police, an end to police brutality, a dismantling of racist systems and symbols (including memorials to Confederate soldiers), and a greater investment in communities in need.

The protests prompted widespread dialogue about racial injustice and the political and cultural systems that support it. The four police officers involved in the killing of Floyd were charged with crimes related to the incident. The Minneapolis City Council agreed to dismantle its police force and rethink how it approaches public safety. And many politicians promised to adjust police budgets so money gets reallocated to support communities directly through improved housing, education, and mental health programs, especially in communities of color.

To understand where the Black Lives Matter demonstrations fit into this rich history, Stacker took a closer look at some of the most famous American protests. Research came from the New York Times, The Week, Time, and Business Insider; government archives; and information from unions and mission-driven organizations. The demonstrations that have made their mark on history range from the Boston Tea Party and Temperance prayer protests to demonstrations for modern-day issues, like civil rights, climate change, nuclear disarmament, reproductive health concerns, LGBTQ+ equality, and gun control.

Keep reading to learn about the important issues that motivated Americans to protestand the impacts of those actions on our society today.

[Pictured: A portrait taken during The Day Without an Immigrant protest on May 1, 2006.]

You may also like: Political Cartoons From The Last 100 Years

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Famous protests in US history and their impacts - Journal Gazette and Times-Courier

You dont want to know whats in there.Reuters/Jim Bourg/Pool

Donald Trump gave his least belligerent debate performance of the campaign on Thursday, keeping a mostly measured tone relative to his first in-person faceoff with Joe Biden (in which he repeatedly shouted over everybody) as well as to his second one (which didnt happen because he refused to participate). It was not, however, an evening defined by respectful, clarifying discourse. Again and again, Trump attempted to make bruising attacks on Bidens policies, background, and familyattempted because youd need to have spent the year pumping nothing but Fox News, Breitbart, and Dan Bonginos Facebook page into your brain to make sense of what the president of the United States was talking about. We, however, are paid to understand exactly that. Heres a rundown, and were sorry.

Youre the big man, I think. I dont know. Maybe youre not.

While answering a question about foreign election interference, Trump told Biden he might be the big man. This is a reference to Hunter Bidens laptop. A quick recap: Last week, the New York Post began running a series of articles based on emails, texts, and pictures that the paper claims were found on a hard drive from a laptop that was abandoned at a Delaware computer repair shop. Journalists and national security officials have pointed to a number of red flags in the Posts reporting, questioning whether the material is real and noting that it has many of the hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign. (Trump also referenced the laptop from hell in the debate.)

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In one of the supposed emails found on the laptop, one of Hunters business associates outlined an equity split from a business deal with a Chinese energy company, with 10 percent going to someone identified as the big man. Conservatives have speculated that the big man is Joe Biden, though no solid evidence has surfaced, and the Biden campaign has denied that he received any stock.

Joe got $3.5 million from Russia and it came through Putin because he was very friendly with the former mayor of Moscow. And it was the mayor of Moscows wife.

Trump said this in response to Bidens accusation that hes been soft on Russia. But the actual allegation here was levied against Hunter Biden, not Joe, by the Republican majority on the Senate Finance and Homeland Security committees in a report citing undisclosed documents. The report claimed that Elena Baturina, the widow of Moscows former mayor, had wired the money to an investment firm co-founded by Hunter Biden. Hunters lawyer has denied that he was a co-founder or had any interest in the firm, or that he received the money, and Republicans have not furnished any evidence to support the claim.

As soon as he [Joe Biden] became vice president, Burismanot the best reputation in the worldI hear they paid [Hunter] $183,000 a month and they gave him a $3 million upfront payment.

Trump said this in the debate section about the candidates foreign entanglements. He was making a reference to Hunters role on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma. Trump has changed his story over time about how much Hunter was making, with figures ranging from $50,000 to $83,000 to $183,000. The amount is actually closer to $50,000. Its unclear where the $3 million figure came from, though it could be a reference to the fact that Hunter may have been able to accrue $3 million in total during his five years on the board based on this monthly salary.

I get treated worse than the Tea Party got treated. Because I have a lot of people in there, deep down in the IRS, they treat me horribly.

This quip, made when Trump was dodging questions about his own taxes, was in reference to an Obama-era episode in which the IRS was accused of targeting Tea Party groups with additional screening and scrutiny during the process of applying for tax-exempt status. The scandal began in 2013 when a report from the Treasury inspector general for tax administration concluded that the agency had delayed conservative groups with burdensome additional requirements. The scandal snowballed to include a number of investigations and hearings (including ones about missing emails Republicans believed would explain things), but the Obama Justice Department didnt prosecute any people at the IRS. Ultimately, the Senate Finance Committee concluded in a report that the division responsible for the process was poorly managed and ill-equipped to handle the surge in right-wing populist applications, but that it hadnt done anything criminal. After Trumps election, thenAttorney General Jeff Sessions declined to reopen the case, and the Trump administration settled a class-action lawsuit from the Tea Party groups.

As for what Trump is referring to about his own treatment, this appears to relate to his ongoing audit. Trump, who only paid $750 in federal taxes in 2017, is part of a class of Americans who often minimize their taxes through creative accounting. For most of a decade, Trump has fought the IRS over a $73 million refund he received because of claimed losses. Trump has consistently complained that the IRS has treated him unfairly.

I guarantee you if I spent one million on you, Joe, I could find plenty wrong. Because the kind of things that youve done and the kind of moneys your family has takenyour brother made money in Iraq. Millions of dollars. Your other brother made a fortune. And its all through you, Joe.

As with the calls for investigations into Bidens son Hunter, many conservatives have homed in on the apparent and ethically iffy perks of being the vice presidents brother. In 2010, James Biden was named the executive vice president of an international construction firm. According to Politico, that position became controversial when James firm, HillStone International, was awarded $1.5 billion to build homes in Iraqwhile Joe Biden was leading the White Houses Iraq policy. HillStone has denied that Joe Biden had anything to do with the deal.

Joe Bidens other brother, Frank Biden, is a real estate developer in Florida who has not been involved in any international scandal, though he has admitted that his name has helped him make connections and secure a contract to open charter schools in the state.

Nobody tougher than me on Russia. While he was selling pillows and sheets, I sold tank busters to Ukraine.

This line of attack is a reference to the Obama administrations decision not to provide lethal aid to Ukraine. In 2015, John McCain complained, The Ukrainians are being slaughtered, and were sending blankets and meals. Blankets dont do well against Russian tanks. But while pillows and sheets may have been part of the Obama administrations aid to Ukraine, it also sent $100 million in security assistance as well as equipment viewed as essential for the functioning of the Ukrainian military. The Trump administration has supplied much of the same aid, as well as weapons.

When you say spike, take a look at whats happening in Pennsylvania where theyve had it closed. Take a look at whats happening with your friend in Michigan where her husbands the only one allowed to do anything.

During his rant about cities and states with Democratic leaders, Trump called out a familiar figure of conservative scorn: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In May, Whitmers husband, Marc Mallory, had asked a boat dock company to move up the familys installation. In that phone call, Mallory mentioned his connection to the governor. Whitmer said he had been joking, but she faced heavy criticism when the news broke. She had also faced criticism for strict coronavirus restrictions, and the report about her husband came as she asked Michiganders to stay home ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.

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A Guide to All the Nutty Things Trump Said That Youd Need Fox News Brain to Understand - Slate

WASHINGTON Five dozen bright-eyed Democrats rode an electoral wave into the House nearly two years ago on a promise to shake up Congress and enact ambitious social reform on health care, climate policy and immigration. They were younger, more female, less wealthy and less white than any previous freshman class.

And although these first-term representatives were noticeably more outspoken and defiant than their predecessors culminating in President Donald Trump's impeachment they face reelection with no major legislative achievement to their credit. The 116th Congress is on pace to enact the fewest number of laws in recent history.

"Our mark is more institutional than it is legislative," said Rep. Katie Porter, one of seven Democrats from California elected in 2018. She said the impact of the 2018 class had yet to be fully seen. "Changing the institution to make it work better will ultimately produce better legislation."

Though some freshman lawmakers succeeded in pushing through narrow bills that helped their constituents, several acknowledged their frustration at the lack of any major legislative wins.

"Results speak for themselves, and it's pretty clear there hasn't been enough progress on these issues," said Rep. Josh Harder, another first-term Democrat from California. "Obviously it's hard when you control one half of one branch of government."

At the same time, however, these new lawmakers helped reshape and redefine the traditional role of a first-term House member. They have generally been more active on social media and more engaged with their constituents than their elder statesmen. Several quickly established national profiles by speaking out on issues at hearings and in public or pushed narrow bills that helped their constituents.

Though they've largely eschewed corporate PAC money, several became mammoth fundraisers by focusing on small-dollar donors. And when the pandemic hit, they led the calls for Zoom hearings and remote voting. Harder hosted a drive-thru town hall.

"C-SPAN has never been more popular," quipped Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., who was elected by her colleagues to act as co-president of the 2018 freshman class.

First-term House members also point to their defense of the Affordable Care Act and efforts to hold Trump accountable as important parts of their legacy.

The 2018 Democratic takeover of the House ended GOP efforts to repeal the 2010 health care law, although it is under threat of elimination in a lawsuit set to be taken up by the Supreme Court in November.

Late last year, the House impeached the president for soliciting Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 election and obstructing Congress' investigation.

But outside of legislation to address the coronavirus pandemic and keep the government funded, this Congress has enacted 175 bills so far, according to GovTrack.

That figure will certainly rise by the end of 2020, but there is little chance the 116th Congress will surpass the last record low in recent history 284 bills passed during the 112th Congress that ended in 2012, when tea party conservatives and Republicans controlled the House during the Obama administration.

"They struck me as freshman lawmakers learning the ropes," said Joshua Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. "I didn't see a revolution or unique freshman class fingerprints on congressional operation."

Though stymied by the GOP-led Senate from realizing major reforms, House Democrats on their own approved several largely symbolic bills to address prescription drug prices, immigration, climate change, gun policy, LGBTQ equality and voting rights.

There was no real negotiation between Republicans and Democrats Trump and Pelosi have an almost nonexistent relationship except in the most dire situations, such as funding the government and enacting coronavirus relief measures. Even those have been exceedingly difficult.

"There would be compromise if we agreed on the goals," said Rep. TJ Cox, a California Democrat. "We don't agree on the goals."

Voters appear to be nonplussed about the lack of major legislative wins by the new House Democratic majority. Polls show that even many of the freshman who were elected in Republican-leaning districts and were once thought to be vulnerable are expected to win reelection. Democrats could even expand their majority in the House.

Of the seven Democrats from California elected for the first time in 2018, only three Cox, Rep. Gil Cisneros and Rep. Harley Rouda are facing hotly competitive races. (One of the seven, Rep. Katie Hill, left office in 2019 amid the release of nude photos without her consent and allegations that she had a relationship with a congressional staffer. Republican Rep. Mike Garcia was elected to the seat.)

If Democrats take control of the White House and Senate this fall, the next two years will be the real test of House Democrats' effectiveness in enacting legislation and their political longevity, particularly after two years dominated by a historic government shutdown, impeachment, a pandemic and a national reckoning on race.

Democrats will be eager to quickly capitalize on their majority to move on major legislation. But the political fissures that emerged this year between the moderate and progressive ends of the House Democratic caucus are likely to grow when legislation becomes more realistic. Many of the major policy bills the House passed this year such as those addressing gun control, immigration and prescription drug reform were messaging bills because the House knew the GOP-controlled Senate would never take them up.

"It's easier to vote along party lines if it's not going anywhere," Rouda said, adding he might have voted differently on some of them had they had a chance of becoming law.

Several first-year lawmakers took an outsize public role over the last two years, becoming some of the most well-known members of Congress outside of leadership. Four young female members of color Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley and Ilhan Omar became known as "the squad." They drew rebukes from Trump and were among the freshmen most willing to buck Democratic leadership in public votes or private meetings.

Another group of lawmakers with national security experience, including Cisneros, wrote a Washington Post op-ed article detailing why the House should impeach the president, a pivotal moment in the Democrats' decision to go forward with impeachment.

Porter, with her now-trademark whiteboard, became known as one of the most successful questioners in Congress for putting corporate executives or government officials, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director, Robert Redfield, through a public grilling.

"There a lot of members of the freshman class that don't hold anything back," Cisneros said.

But while much of the public attention focused on the progressive newcomers, behind the scenes Pelosi and Democratic leaders worked to protect the more moderate freshmen, who rode dissatisfaction with Trump in the midterm to wrest away formerly GOP districts. These more politically vulnerable members had perhaps even more of an influence on the direction of House Democrats in the last two years.

Although progressives were eager to move articles of impeachment sooner, Pelosi didn't move forward until the more moderate Democrats were on board. The House hasn't had a floor vote on the Green New Deal or "Medicare for All" measures that progressives want to advance but that would put moderate Democrats in a tough squeeze.

Many of the moderates, dubbed "front-liners," were set up by Democratic leadership to succeed by putting them on high-profile committees or having them chair subcommittees. Several front-line freshman members got at least one minor bill signed into law an important accomplishment to tout at home.

Rep. Mike Levin, a California Democrat and chairman of a subcommittee on the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, has focused away from the high-profile fights and drilled down instead on bipartisan bills to reform veteran housing vouchers and training programs.

"If you just kind of look at the national narrative of what happens here," he said, "I wouldn't blame you for thinking that we're not getting much done and that the whole place is overrun by gridlock."

Harder spent months on a bill to help California eradicate nutria semi-aquatic rodents that destroy wetlands and can damage water infrastructure, as they did in the Central Valley. He even carried a taxidermic swamp rat around the Capitol as a prop. The bill is now waiting for Trump to sign it into law.

Said Harder: "You really can do a lot of good, if you focus on issues that are important but no one else is leading the charge on."

(c)2020 Los Angeles Times

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Young, outspoken and diverse, the 2018 House class began with high hopes. Did it deliver? - The Bozeman Daily Chronicle