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At the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War, we stand in the same position relative to the initial invasion as America stood in 1985 relative to the 1965 arrival of our first combat troops in Vietnam. This makes it a useful moment to compare the two conflicts and their effects, and to consider provisionally, always provisionally which was more disastrous, which intervention deserves to be remembered as the worst foreign policy decision in our history.

For some time, even after my own initial support for the war dissolved and its folly became obvious, I doubted that Iraq could outstrip Vietnam in the ranks of American debacles. More than 12 times as many American troops died in the Vietnam War as died in Operation Iraqi Freedom and its aftermath. The bloodletting among Iraqis was terrible, but so was the civilian toll in Southeast Asia. The United States lost the Vietnam War completely; in Iraq, we left behind an unsteady and corrupt republic rather than a new dictatorship, with a government that still allows a U.S. military presence.

Domestically, the period around the Vietnam War was dreadful a wave of domestic terrorism, a crisis of authority, the 1960s curdling into the 1970s. The immediate aftermath of Iraq was sour and paranoid in its own way, but even with the Great Recession, there wasnt the same kind of radicalism and social breakdown. When Barack Obama was elected president, American conservatism seemed shattered by Iraq, as American liberalism was shattered by Vietnam, but by his second term, there was a return to ideological stalemate.

At various times, then at the 10th anniversary of the war, maybe even at the 15th it was possible to imagine a long-term future where Iraq was ultimately remembered more like our bloody counterinsurgency in the Philippines at the dawn of the 20th century than like the trauma of Vietnam as a bad war, but not an era-defining one; as a squandering of blood and treasure and moral credibility, but one whose overarching strategic costs were not so great.

Today, theres a stronger case for seeing Iraq as a more epochal disaster. In American domestic life, the Vietnam effect was more of a fever, whereas the Iraq effect seems like a wasting or relapsing disease. The wars influence has percolated inside other social crises, like the opioid epidemic, that have become more visible and destructive over time. Its lingering effects have made the body politic more susceptible to left-wing radicalism and right-wing demagogy, while contributing to a persistent mood of pessimism and disappointment thats then been exacerbated by other forces (social media, the coronavirus pandemic).

In our political coalitions, these disillusioning effects look even more substantial and permanent than they appeared in 2010 or 2015. Ever since the war discredited and helped dissolve the hawkish center-left, nobody has been able to reconstitute a strong centrist faction within liberalism, with the result that liberal institutions have been pulled ever leftward since 2004. Ever since the war discredited both neoconservatism specifically and the Republican establishment generally, nobody has been able to maintain a successful counterweight to the various forms of right-wing populism, Tea Party and Trumpian, that have made the GOP ungovernable and incapable of governing.

And there is a special irony that even with the intellectual ferment on the Trump-era right, the attempts to forge a national conservatism or a socially conservative populism sometimes look like efforts to grope backward to George W. Bushs platform in 2000, before he traded his humble foreign policy for a grand crusade.

But it is in the effect on Americas global position that the costs of the Iraq War really keep compounding. Its now clear that not just the war alone but its ever-spreading secondary consequences which included our futile overinvestment in Afghanistan, fatefully cast as the good war by many Democrats opposed to the Iraq invasion kept us tied us down during critical years of geopolitical realignment, making it hard to even think about, let alone cope with the revival of Russian power and the rise of China to superpower status.

The all-but-certain influence of our final defeat in Afghanistan on Vladimir Putins decision to invade Ukraine was just one link in a long chain of consequences forged by the Iraq War. Likewise, our newly aggressive posture toward the Chinese regime is a risky attempt to play catch-up to shifts that we should have been more attuned to a decade ago.

And while the effects of the Iraq War on the developing worlds attitudes toward the United States can be overstated, our initial invasion clearly made us seem like a less trustworthy hegemon reckless and revisionist rather than steady and reliable. Then the way the war contributed to our internal divisions and derangements also made American culture seem less admirable and the broader liberal-democratic project seem less inevitable. So not only Russia and China but also other power centers, from India to Turkey, were pushed toward post-American and post-Western paths by everything that followed.

Now return to the comparison between 2023 and our Reagan-era situation, barely a decade after the last helicopters left Saigon. By 1985, we had managed to separate China from Russia, the Soviet economy was faltering, and Mikhail Gorbachev had just been elected general secretary of the Communist Party, with glasnost and the fall of the Berlin Wall just around the corner. Today, with Russia and China increasingly aligned together against us and Chinese influence increasing, we seem to be descending back into the kind of twilight struggle that in 85 we were poised to finally transcend. So if Vietnam 20 years on looked like a disaster that in our strength we were able to absorb, a surmountable obstacle to American ascent, Iraq 20 years on looks more like our empires nemesis, full stop.

Of course, appearances can be deceiving. Almost nobody in 1985 realized just how quickly the Soviet Union would collapse, and perhaps today the American comeback is already beginning. We have resources and forms of legitimacy that are lacking in our more authoritarian rivals; their systems are persistently vulnerable to the follies of autocratic decision-making. And the Ukraine conflict, for some, is seen as a possible doorway to revival reinvigorating the West much as Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and Pope John Paul II once did, drawing Putin into the same sort of quagmire that Afghanistan offered to the Soviets, helping us shake our Iraq distemper on a different timetable than with our Vietnam syndrome, but with similar results.

Its not a coincidence that among those most invested in this hope are some of the Iraq Wars most ardent advocates. They want redemption, understandably, for their vision of American power, if not for the Iraq decision itself.

I dont share their optimism, but Im not surprised at its resilience especially when the alternative possibility, that a single choice made with such confidence 20 years ago still has our empire on a sunset path today, seems too terrible to bear.

Ross Douthat | The New York Times(CREDIT: Josh Haner/The New York Times)

Ross Douthat is a columnist for The New York Times.

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The Vietnam effect was more of a fever, whereas the Iraq effect ... - Salt Lake Tribune

Republicans

With the old media order losing ground, a new cadre of extreme voices has emerged, precipitating a GOP shift to Maga populism

He has a platform that most politicians would envy. But Jack Posobiec is not to be found on Americas major TV networks or in its newspapers. He is among a cadre of online influencers who now shape the far right and could help decide the Republican presidential primary race in 2024.

Two operatives made the very same prediction, that Posobiec will matter as much to future GOP voters as Washington Post columnist George Will did to Republicans a generation ago, political journalist David Weigel wrote in a Semafor newsletter last week.

That observation prompted Alyssa Farah Griffin, a CNN political commentator and former White House official, to tweet in response: Were doomed.

Such expectations speak volumes about the breakdown of the old media order, flawed as it was, and the rise of new and often extreme voices in the digital age. It also reflects a parallel shift in the Republican party from country club to Make America great again populism.

Will, 81, edited the conservative National Review magazine, won a Pulitzer prize for commentary in 1977, was described by the Wall Street Journal as perhaps the most powerful journalist in America and quit the Republican party over Donald Trump in 2016.

Posobiec, 38, gained prominence as a pro-Trump activist during the 2016 election. He promoted bogus conspiracy theories such as Pizzagate, which held that Democrats were running a child sex and torture ring beneath a pizzeria in Washington. He is a senior editor at the far-right news and commentary website Human Events.

Posobiec has used Twitter where his 2 million followers include representatives, senators and journalists to promote Russian military intelligence operations, pushed false claims of election fraud and collaborated with white nationalists, Proud Boys and neo-Nazis, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, a non-profit legal advocacy organisation.

Yet it is Posobiec and others like him who are already helping to set the narrative for the Republican presidential primary. Posobiecs recent online activity includes crude attacks on Antifa, the New York Timess 1619 Project and transgender rights (Genital Gestapo) ready-made talking points for candidates.

Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman who belonged to the conservative Tea Party, recognises the changes of a fragmented media landscape. Ten years ago, going on CNN and MSNBC, you had great influence, he said. Now not a lot of people watch any more. More people will listen to me if I go on somebodys podcast or something. Its a completely different world now where influencers have great say.

But at what cost? Walsh added: It has nothing to do with ideas. It has nothing to do with intellect. Its all about trolling people, getting clicks and being outrageous. Theres a whole cast of characters that has sprung up over the last five to six years and they have great influence now. The Jack Posobiecs and all the rest of these guys are not fringe; they speak for a big chunk of the base.

The growth of partisan echo chambers was evident in last years midterm elections as Republicans, in particular, snubbed the mainstream media in favour of rightwing outlets and often refused to debate their Democratic opponents.

And earlier this month, at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the National Harbor in Maryland, the former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon loomed large, drawing crowds as he opined loudly on Real Americas Voice, a channel that is popular with the base but little known outside it.

Bannons War Room podcast was named the number one spreader of misinformation among political talkshows in a recent study by the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington. Yet its guests have included prominent Republicans in Congress such as Elise Stefanik and Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Leading online influencers appear united in their support for Trumpism, and rejection of the Republican establishment, but divided over the fate of the party nomination for 2024. Early shots have been fired in what could be a ferocious battle between them.

Trump sympathisers include Alex Bruesewitz, Mike Cernovich and Laura Loomer as well as a Twitter user known as Catturd and the former presidents own son, Don Jr. Among supporters of Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida who is expected to run, are John Cardillo and Bill Mitchell.

Another influencer, Chaya Raichik, has dined with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida (He seems nice!) but also disclosed that, when she was revealed to be behind a provocative Twitter account called Libs of Tik Tok, she received a call from DeSantiss team offering her a guest house if she needed to go into hiding.

Other rightwing personalities such as Charlie Kirk and Candace Owens augment their social media presence with countless in-person appearances at conferences, on television and at university campuses. The owning the libs talking points that circulate in this ecosystem frequently work their way into the discourse of the conservative network Fox News.

David Litt, an author and former speechwriter for Barack Obama, said: This is like research and development for Fox. If something gets enough traction with the online audience, then I wouldnt be surprised if you start to see Fox hosts piggybacking on that once they think thats where their audience is headed.

Posobiecs Pizzagate conspiracy theory had real world consequences when a man travelled to Washington and fired an assault rifle inside the relevant pizza restaurant, later receiving a four-year prison sentence. Litt said it was alarming that, despite such incidents, Republicans have welcomed far-right influencers into their big tent rather than condemning them.

The threat of violence is out there and the flames are being fanned by a lot of these influencers. We wouldnt have called David Duke an influencer back in the day. We would have been very clear about who he was and the danger that he posed to our democracy and to the society that the rest of us would like to continue to enjoy living in, regardless of which party is in charge.

As for Will, who is approaching a half-century at the Washington Post, his column this week discussed freedom of speech and unauthorised immigration. It may not matter much to the Republican primary. Walsh, the ex-congressman, observed: The base no longer knows who the fuck George Will is and thats an absolute shame.

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Its all about trolling: how far-right influencers are shaping Republican narrative - The Guardian US

In his third year of college, Donalds realized he had to turn his life around. When he learned he could transfer his credits to Florida State University but leave his GPA behind, he jumped at the opportunity. He joined a business fraternity and met a woman named Erika, who invited him to visit her church. He accepted, and within those walls found the purpose hed been searching for. The experience led, indirectly, to Donalds pledging his life to Christ in a Cracker Barrel parking lot during an unauthorized shift break. Donalds graduated from FSU with degrees in marketing and finance and a serious relationship. Two years after Erika took him to church, Byron took her back there, and the pair were married in 2003.

Erika and Byron found high-paying jobs in the finance sector, settled down in Naples, and had three children. Through God, hard work, and a good private school education, the kid from Brooklyn had achieved the American dream. Translating those ideas into political action didnt begin until 2008, when the financial crash hit. I turned on the House Financial Services Committee one day, and I was pissed, he told The Daily Signal. I was like, Who are these people? They dont know what theyre talking about.

Cable news pundits didnt seem to know what they were talking about either. A friend advised listening to Mark Levin, a radio talk show host whom Sean Hannity calls The Great One and Rolling Stones Peter Wade called a bomb-throwing Trump sycophant. The more Donalds listened, the more sense Levin made. He began to read books Levin recommended: Bastiat, Locke, Montesquieu. He changed his voting registration to Republican, threw in with the Tea Party, and never looked back.

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The Education of Byron Donalds, the Right-Wing Fringe's Newest Star - The New Republic

By Mark Barabak

Monday, March 27, 2023 | 2 a.m.

DENVER Kevin Priola was a Republican before he could even vote.

Inspired by Ronald Reagan, he preregistered with the GOP at age 17. He joined the College Republicans at the University of Colorado Boulder a true act of faith in that liberal stronghold and was elected to the Legislature in 2008, where hes served ever since.

But Priola slowly grew estranged from the GOP, seeing it as more authoritarian than conservative, and last August he became a Democrat.

I couldnt stomach it, Priola said of his old party, and associate with that style and brand of politics.

Hes hardly alone.

In the last two decades, the Republican ranks in Colorado have shrunk drastically, to just a quarter of registered voters, as the once reliably red state has turned a distinct shade of blue.

The transformation is part of a larger political shift. Once a Republican bulwark, the West has become Democratic bedrock. That, in turn, has reshaped presidential politics nationwide.

With a big chunk of the West California, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington seemingly locked up, Democrats are free to focus more heavily on the perennial battlegrounds of the Midwest and venture into once-solidly Republican states such as Georgia.

The changes didnt just happen, like the snow embroidering the Rockies in winter, or the runoff that swells Colorados icy rivers in the spring. It took money, strategy, demographic changes and, not least, a sharp rightward turn by Republicans.

No state in the region has changed its partisan coloration as emphatically over the last two decades as Colorado. From a Western swing state, it has become a Democratic stronghold, said pollster Floyd Ciruli, whos sampled public opinion in Colorado for more than 40 years.

In 2004, Democrats essentially gave up and wrote the place off; theyve carried Colorado in every presidential contest since. In 2020, Joe Biden romped to a 13-point win over President Donald Trump, the largest Democratic victory here in more than half a century.

Patrick Winkler helped change the political complexion of Colorado.

In the last 20 years, the state has gained more than 1.3 million residents, most settling like Winkler in Denver or the suburbs along the Front Range.

Winkler moved three years ago from California, in part because the 29-year-old real estate agent wanted to own a home and knew his money would go further in Colorado.

The political views he imported are typical of Winklers cohort, which tends toward left of center. He voted for Biden in 2020 and Democratic Gov. Jared Polis last November, largely because of his contempt for the GOP and a particular dislike for Donald Trump.

It was less a personal opinion about the candidates, said Winkler, who wound up buying a three-story townhouse near downtown Denver. It was about the general outlook of the parties and what they stand for.

The influx of young arrivals is not a new phenomenon. Colorado has long been a magnet for 20- and 30-somethings, drawn by the states mouthwatering scenery, outdoorsy lifestyle and, more recently, its thriving tech and service industries.

What has changed are those whove found their home in the Democratic Party: They are younger, more affluent, better educated, and more liberal on issues such as abortion and gay rights.

In short, Democrats are now much more in tune with Colorado, one of the best-educated and socially liberal states in the country, as the Republican base has gotten older, less educated, more evangelical and more Trumpy.

When Lori Weigel moved to Denver in 1997, she recalled, the Broncos always won and the Republican Party always won.

Now, the GOP strategist lamented, we have a losing football team and, statewide, a losing Republican brand.

Gov. Polis sits in his spacious office in the state Capitol, his 13-year-old terrier mix, Gia, curled in a chair by his side. His dress gray suit and a purple polo shirt with matching Nike sneakers is a mash-up of tech bro and standard-issue government executive.

At 47, Polis has been a multimillionaire for over two decades. He made a fortune in the frothy days of the commercial internet, founding, among other flourishing businesses, an online flower delivery service.

Before seeking elected office, Polis played a key role in Colorados makeover as one of the gang of four a quartet of rich donors who spent millions, starting in the early 2000s, building a political support system and recruiting and funding Democratic candidates.

Colorados shift, he said, is not due to funding. And thats true to a large extent, though the cash infusion didnt hurt. More important is the branding of Democrats in Colorado as the party of the center.

The state is not a playground for the fringe left, said Chris Hughes, a former Colorado Democratic Party chairman.

Polis, who boasts of cutting taxes and wielding a light hand during the COVID-19 pandemic, is the latest in a string of statewide Democratic officeholders whove bucked the national partys leftward shift.

There was the cowboy-hatted U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, who made bipartisanship a calling card in Washington. Before Polis came the relatively centrist Govs. Bill Ritter, an ex-prosecutor, and John Hickenlooper, a former oil company geologist.

Meantime, Republicans offered candidates from the tea party movement and fire-breathers like the anti-immigration crusader Tom Tancredo.

For Polis, who disdains hard-liners in both parties, ideology is something of a four-letter word. Hes quick to point out that Democratic registration has fallen in Colorado alongside that of the GOP. Though not nearly as much.

Colorado Republicans have fared worse than Democrats, Polis said, because GOP candidates have focused too much on culture-war issues and plunged down rabbit holes like Trumps bogus claims of a stolen election. (This month, the Colorado Republican Party chose an election denier as its chairman.)

Any candidate who wants to win in Colorado has to talk about and have solutions for the issues that matter most to everyday Coloradans, Polis said, ticking those off: education, affordable housing, traffic, congestion.

Casi Smigelsky works in tech sales in Denver and, like most Coloradans, belongs to no political party.

The 33-year-old considers herself a fiscal conservative and is not a Biden fan too much of a relic, she says of the 80-year-old president. But Smigelsky has an even harsher view of the GOP.

Theyve become a party of hate, she said, and a party of taking rights away.

Though Smigelsky could see herself voting for a moderate Republican for president, if one somehow won the nomination in 2024, there is no way she will cast a ballot for Trump, the early GOP front-runner.

Absolutely not, she said. Absolutely never.

Republicans were in decline in Colorado well before Trump bulled his way into the White House. The former presidents deceit and the mayhem he spawned hastened the free fall.

Dick Wadhams, a fourth-generation Coloradan and longtime GOP campaign consultant, said its hard these days for Republicans to even get an impartial hearing from voters, regardless of a candidates personal qualities and beliefs.

He imagines typical Colorado voters saying to themselves, Were not going to entrust these offices to the Republican Party, even if these individuals look like theyre solid, because the party is crazy overall.

Pam Anderson can speak to that.

Anderson was featured on Time magazines cover last October as one of the defenders fighting to save democracy after she bested a Trump loyalist and election denier to win the GOP nomination for secretary of state, the overseer of Colorados balloting.

I was a vocal opponent of everything Trump said about elections, Anderson said at a Denver coffee bar. Everything.

Still, she said, opponents ran millions of dollars in commercials saying I was too MAGA for Colorado. She leaned back, as if still reeling. I couldnt raise enough money to combat that.

Anderson shrugged. She threw up her hands.

She lost by double digits, gone in a tide that delivered Democrats all four statewide offices and underscored a sea change that has remade Colorado and dramatically refashioned the West.

Mark Barabak is a columnist for the Los Angeles Times.

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From red bastion to blue bulwark: What the political shift in Colorado ... - Las Vegas Sun

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Opposition demand caste-based census, skip Shindes tea party on eve of budget session - Hindustan Times