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(CNN) -- Voters in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday kick off five straight weeks of primary contests that could give us a clearer indication of whether establishment Republicans have the upper hand against the tea party movement for control of the party.

The results could back up recent tough talk from Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who predicted big wins for incumbents facing primary challenges from the right, saying, "I think we are going to crush them everywhere."

And they may have a major impact in determining whether Republicans retake the majority in the Senate.

Since the birth of the tea party movement in 2009, primary challenges from the right have produced major headlines and headaches for the GOP and hurt the party's chances of winning back the Senate from Democrats in the past two election cycles. Candidates backed by the tea party movement and other grass-roots conservatives effectively cost the GOP five winnable Senate elections the last two cycles in Nevada, Delaware, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri.

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Two months ago, McConnell, whom the right sees as part of the problem in Washington, told The New York Times that when it came to tea party challenges, "I don't think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country."

His prediction might come true.

Establishment leaders say they have learned their lessons from the past two elections and are better at counterattacking this time around.

So why do incumbents and establishment-backed candidates appear to have the upper hand this time around?

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Primaries will be a key test of GOP establishment-tea party battle

Republican forces eager to defeat Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan have rallied around state House Speaker Thom Tillis. The tea party faces uphill fight in Ohio, too.

Primary season kicks off in earnest Tuesday, with contests in three states: North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana.

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At center stage is the Republican primary for US Senate in North Carolina, where the GOP establishment, tea party, and Christian conservatives are duking it out for the chance to take on freshman Sen. Kay Hagan (D). Senator Hagan is one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle in a state that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and has been trending conservative ever since.

Hagans defeat is crucial to Republicans hopes of taking over the Senate in November. But Hagan and national Democrats are on the case, with strong fundraising.

The Republican establishment has rallied around state House Speaker Thom Tillis, who faces seven primary competitors. If Speaker Tillis can take at least 40 percent of the primary vote Tuesday, he will avoid a runoff and can immediately get to work campaigning against Hagan. If not, he will face a runoff on July 15, likely against tea-party-backed obstetrician Greg Brannon.

But the Republican powers-that-be want nothing to do with a runoff, which drags out their intraparty battle and raises Democrats hopes that an insurgent could win the primary the kind of candidate who makes off-the-wall statements and has cost the GOP Senate seats in the past two elections. The US Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-affiliated "super political action committee," are backing Tillis, as is Gov. Pat McCrory (R), 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and potential 2016 contender Jeb Bush.

Dr. Brannon is backed by tea party Sens. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky and Mike Lee (R) of Utah, as well as national tea party groups FreedomWorks and Tea Party Patriots. A third candidate, the Rev. Mark Harris, pastor of Charlottes First Baptist Church, is backed by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Tillis had struggled to break away from the pack, but in late April, Public Policy Polling showed him surging to 46 percent. Brannon polled second at 20 percent, and Mr. Harris was third at 11 percent.

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North Carolina Senate primary: GOP establishment fights back against tea party

Tuesday's primary in North Carolina offers the latest round in the tea party vs. the GOP establishment battle for the U.S. Senate, and so far the establishment appears to be winning.

Both the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's American Crossroads have thrown their support and dollars behind Thom Tillis, speaker of the state House, as party elders try to secure their favored candidate to confront first-term Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in November.

But it's Greg Brannon, a conservative, Christian ob-gyn -- who was born in Inglewood, Calif., and graduated from USC -- who has captured the passion of the tea party-aligned wing of the GOP. Brannon's allies say Tillis is not conservative enough for Washington.

On Monday, surrogates swooped into North Carolina from the highest rungs of the party's divided ladder for the slugfest. Tea party hero Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) stumped in the Tar Heel State for Brannon, while former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced his support for Tillis.

Like elsewhere in the Senate races, the hard-line GOP candidates are being brushed back by an onslaught of support from the establishment. Party leaders are trying to avoid nominating extreme candidates that could dash GOP hopes of gaining the six seats they need to retake control of the Senate in midterm elections this fall.

A similar battle has already been won in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, trounced his primary challenger in March. In June, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham appears well-positioned to swat back a cast of challengers in South Carolina.

The next big skirmish happens later this month when Republican Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate minority leader, take on their tea-party-aligned challengers.

Hagan is among the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this fall, and her campaign is increasingly worried about a Tillis victory, as polls show him leading Brannon.

Hagan's camp took the unusual step of recently running a radio ad apparently intended to help Brannon, whom experts say would be easier for her to beat in the general election. The ad tears into Tillis' support for certain aspects of Obamacare, portraying him as soft on a signature GOP issue.

Hagan, who supported Obamacare, defended the ad, accusing Tillis of waffling on the healthcare law.

Original post:
It's tea party vs. GOP establishment in North Carolina primary

(CNN) -

Voters in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday kick off five straight weeks of primary contests that could give us a clearer indication of whether establishment Republicans have the upper hand against the tea party movement for control of the party.

The results could back up recent tough talk from Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, who predicted big wins for incumbents facing primary challenges from the right, saying, "I think we are going to crush them everywhere."

And they may have a major impact in determining whether Republicans have a chance to retake the majority in the Senate.

Since the birth of the tea party movement in 2009, primary challenges from the right have produced major headlines and headaches for the GOP and hurt the party's chances of winning back the Senate from Democrats in the past two election cycles. Candidates backed by the tea party movement and other grass-roots conservatives effectively cost the GOP five winnable Senate elections the last two cycles in Nevada, Delaware, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri.

Two months ago, McConnell, whom the right sees as part of the problem in Washington, told The New York Times that when it came to tea party challenges, "I don't think they are going to have a single nominee anywhere in the country."

His prediction might come true.

Establishment leaders say they have learned their lessons from the past two elections and are better at counterattacking this time around.

So why do incumbents and establishment-backed candidates appear to have the upper hand this time around?

"I don't think we can say that the tea party movement is dead, but there seems to be less enthusiasm among their activists and supporters this year," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, a top campaign handicapper. "Establishment Republicans and incumbents have learned to run against tea party-backed candidates."

Read the original:
Test for GOP establishment-tea party battle

Belinda #39;s Tea Party (Part 3)
Don #39;t forget to watch Belinda #39;s Tea Party (Part 4)

By: Tiffany Cogswell

The rest is here:
Belinda's Tea Party (Part 3) - Video