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The scruffy headquarters of HUR, Ukraines military intelligence agency, stands on a jagged piece of land in central Kyiv known as Fishermans Island. Strictly speaking, it is not an island but a peninsula. And there isnt much fishing going on these wartime days. But sporting a piratical beard, the agencys deputy head, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, plays a nautical theme. Blunt, enigmatic and sharp as a captains hook, he exudes many of the qualities that have made HUR one of the most talked about secret services in the world. But he sounds troubled as he assesses Ukraines battlefield prospects. Things, he says, are as difficult as they have ever been since the early days of Russias full-scale invasion. And they are about to get worse.

He predicts that Russia will first press on with its plan to liberate all of Ukraines eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, a task unchanged since 2022. He says a Russian order has gone out to take something in time for the pomp of Victory Day in Moscow on May 9th, or, failing that, before Vladimir Putins visit to Beijing a week later. The speed and success of the advance will determine when and where the Russians strike next. Our problem is very simple: we have no weapons. They always knew April and May would be a difficult time for us.

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A fresh Russian push will test Ukraine severely, says a senior general - The Economist

This week, Congress sent a long-overdueforeign aid packageto President Joe Bidens desk, finally authorizing $61 billion in desperately needed military assistance for Ukraine. But before you breathe a sigh of relief for Ukrainians who have been bravely fighting Russias invasion for two years, consider that in the six months it took for skeptical Republicans to approve the package, Russia made half-a-years worth of battlefield advances. The question that nags me is whether U.S. aid was too little, too late not just for Ukraine, but also for the United States.

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Thats because the belated vote in Congress to approve the foreign assistance package was critical not only for Ukraines ability to defend its territory and its people but also for Americas credibility on the world stage as a reliable partner willing to support friends against unprovoked threats from adversaries and authoritarians. This aid package, however large, is not enough to ensure that message gets through; the U.S. needs to make a commitment to ongoing assistance so Kyiv can regain enough territory to force Moscow to make concessions on the battlefield or in peace talks.

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While Congress was arguing, Russia was making steady advances in the last six months and has reconstituted its military strength with the help of China, Iran and North Korea. For now, U.S. military support will allow Ukraine to hold the line and quash Russian advances, but it is too late for a Ukrainian offensive or a quick or decisive Ukrainian victory.

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Images of Russian advances were becoming a sign of U.S. weakness and Americas willingness to abandon its partners. U.S. failure to act would have invited further aggression not only from Moscow, but also from Beijing. Both capitals have been closely following domestic debates in the United States.

The majority of Republicans in the House voted against the bill; many Republicans and supporters of former President Donald Trump say more weapons for Ukraine will only prolong a war that Kyiv cannot win. They argue that it is Europes, not the United States responsibility to prevent Russias takeover of Ukraine. What these critics fail to mention is that without those weapons, Ukraine will most certainly lose to Russia on the battlefield or in forced negotiations.

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Without a credible commitment to ongoing bipartisan support for Kyiv, Moscow wouldnt be wrong to assume that the U.S. will abandon Ukraine sooner or later, especially if this years U.S. presidential election returns Trump to the White House. Regardless of the results in November, a failure by Congress to build on the latest aid package in words and deeds will undermine U.S. leadership and credibility around the world, emboldening our enemies.

Even with fresh U.S. assistance that began flowing this week, Ukraine isstill likely to be outgunned this year. There is hope that increased U.S. and European ammunition production could turn the tide next year, but Russia has the advantage for now. In a best-case scenario, Ukraine can use long-range missiles the so-called ATACMS, which werequietly deliveredby Washington to Ukraine in recent weeks to pressure Russian forces behind the frontlines, especially in Crimea, laying the groundwork for future offensive action.

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U.S. military support will give Ukraine some breathing room until the end of the year, allowing its military to bolster defenses and mobilize the necessary manpower to go back on the offensive. Ukraine has some problems that foreign aid funding wont solve: it needs more soldiers and younger ones. The Ukrainian parliament passed a mobilization bill earlier this month tolower the conscription ageto 25 and add penalties for dodging military service.

At least for now, the long-delayed passage of the U.S. foreign aid bill has signaled to our partners and adversaries around the world that Washington does not abandon its friends, even in the face of deep domestic polarization.

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Is U.S. Aid to Ukraine Too Little, Too Late? - Council on Foreign Relations

Last Sunday, as Russia put pressure on Ukrainian forces across a 600-mile front line, Ukraine received a shipment of anti-armor rockets, missiles and badly needed 155-millimeter artillery shells. It was the first installment from the $61 billion in military aid that President Biden approved just four days earlier.

A second batch of those weapons and ammunition arrived on Monday. And a fresh supply of Patriot interceptor missiles from Spain arrived in Poland on Tuesday. They would be at the Ukrainian front soon, a senior Spanish official said.

The push is on to move weapons to a depleted Ukrainian army that is back on its heels and desperate for aid. Over the last week, a flurry of planes, trains and trucks have arrived at NATO depots in Europe carrying ammunition and smaller weapon systems to be shipped across Ukraines borders.

Now we need to move fast, and we are, Mr. Biden said on April 24 when he signed the bill approving the aid. He added, Im making sure the shipments start right away.

But it may prove difficult for Mr. Biden and other NATO allies to maintain the urgency. Weapons pledged by the United States, Britain and Germany all of which have announced major new military support over the last three weeks could take months to arrive in numbers substantial enough to bolster Ukraines defenses on the battlefield, officials said.

That has raised questions about Ukraines ability to hold off the Russian attacks that have had Kyiv at a disadvantage for several months.

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U.S. Approved More Weapons for Ukraine. Now It's a Race Against Time. - The New York Times

Remember, President Zelenskyy was at the Munich Security Conference just days before Russia invaded, Reznikov told POLITICO. I was a member of the delegation with him in Munich, and there was this atmosphere, this ambience [of] Guys, you have to give up. It wasnt said directly, but it was there, he said. Hardly inspiring confidence as the negotiations with Russia kicked off.

But above all, Reznikov and other Ukrainian officials involved in the talks Ukraines Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak and his adviser Mykhailo Podolyak among them also doubted the Kremlins sincerity and whether it was negotiating in good faith. This was a skepticism honed during the hundreds of hours theyd spent bargaining with Russian officials before the 2022 invasion. Were the concessions Russia offered even worth the paper they were written on?

They may sign documents, but whether they keep to agreements is another matter, Reznikov said. Remember the Budapest Memorandum, he added, referencing the 1994 agreement Russia had signed, fixing Ukraines borders and recognizing its sovereignty in return for giving up its nuclear arsenal. French President Mitterrand refused to add his signature to [this] document and warned our president [Leonid Kuchma], Young man, they will trick you.

Kuchma told me this story. After 30 years, the Russians did just that they tricked us, he said. The Kuchma anecdote was on Reznikovs mind during the 2022 negotiations. And, according to Ukrainian negotiators, it was in the spirit of Mitterrand that the U.K. and the U.S. cautioned Ukraine.

Negotiations? They dont want real negotiations, Yermak told POLITICO. The Russians want the capitulation of Ukraine.

We would be at the negotiating table again in [a] moment, if the aggressor was ready, really ready, to agree a just peace but not for their version of peace, he said. Like Reznikov, Yermaks worried that Ukraine would abide by the concessions it made, while Russia would squirm out of them and refuse to implement whats agreed.

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Ukraine is ready for a just peace not Russia's version of one - POLITICO Europe

This article was originally published inFrench

Paris and Berlin are at loggerheads over military aid to Ukraine. But can the two European powerhouses unify behind Kyiv?

At a conference on Ukraine in Paris at the end of February 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

The announcement didn't go down well across the Rhine.

A few hours later, Germany's Olaf Scholz answered Europe and NATO will not send any soldiers to Ukraine.

Macron's statement was "ared line for Germany, which fears being passed off as warmonger in the eyes of Vladimir Putin, according to Dr Carolyn Moser, director of a research group atHeidelberg'sMax Planck Institute of International Law and holder of the Alfred Grosser Chair at Sciences Po.

During the same conference, the French leader did not miss the opportunity to recall that many, around this table, were only considering sending sleeping bags and helmets to Ukraine.

It was a jibe at Berlin, which announced at the end of January 2022 it would send 5,000 helmets to Kyiv - but not arms. One month later Russian tanks rolled across the border.

The situation has changed a lot since then.

After the United States, Germany is now the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine.

According to the Kiel Institute, Germany has committed to providing 17 billion in aid for Kyiv when France has only promised 1.8bn.

"France was less hesitant to deliver heavy weapons, but it made it much less public. And until now, it hesitates to say exactly what it delivered and to what extent. It justifies it by the fact that it could then reveal defence secrets," said expert Moser.

Lack of communication is also a source of tension between Berlin and Paris.

Faced with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Scholz announced at the end of February 2022 an envelope of 100bnto modernise the German army.

France regrets not having been informed beforehand.

Another thorn in the side of the Franco-German relationship is the European Sky Shield Initiative.

Initiated by Germany, the project, which includes 21 NATO countries but does not include France, consists of German (IRIS-T), American (PATRIOT) and Israeli (Arrow-3) systems.

These dissonances already existed before Moscow's assault on Ukraine. In 2017, Macron made a speech at the Sorbonne, calling for an overhaul of European defence - it fell on deaf ears across the Rhine.

The French and German visions of European defence differ fundamentally on one point: the role of NATO. "While France aspires to a certain autonomy, Germany prefers a transatlantic approach," explains Moser.

Defence is just part of a series of long-standing disagreements between Paris and Berlin.

Energy has historically been a major divide between the two. While France depends on nuclear power - providing around 70% of its electricity - Germany shut down its last nuclear power plant in 2023.

The war in Ukraine is now bringing the energy issue back on the table because Germany, a major consumer of Russian gas, must seek supplies elsewhere.

Another thorn in the Franco-German relations is the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the south American trade bloc.

"For Germany, free trade is essential because its economy is very dependent on exports... The opening rate of the German economy is 87%. It is considerable. France is only 60%," says Jacques-Pierre Gougeon,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

While Berlin is pushing for this free trade agreement, Paris believes its environmental standards are insufficient", he explains.

The war in Ukraine has upset the distribution of roles and power relationships between the couple.

"There was a sort of tacit division of roles between a more leading France on defence issues, strategic issues, and then Germany on economic issues. And it is clear that this balance is now weakened with German ambitions on defence issues," says Gaspard Schnitzler,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

Franco-German relations have been relegated to the background for Berlin, which increasingly has its eyes on the East.

In his speech in Prague in August 2022, Scholz called for the enlargement of the European Union to include the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova.

Undeniably, Europe's centre of gravity will shift to the East," explains research director Schnitzler.

Experts say the balance of power is far from being redistributed, however.

"Germany and France alone account for 48% of euro area GDP, 32% of the EU population and 31% of the EU budget. So we cant do without," adds Jacques-Pierre Gougeon.

Several ways have been suggested by observers to get the Franco-German tandem back on track.

For expert Moser, the pair must communicate better.

Gougeon pleads for opening the Franco-German relationship to other partners, in particular Poland in the framework of the Weimar Triangle.

Schnitzler recommends carrying out existing projects such as the main ground combat system (MGCS), and thefuture combat air system(SCAF).

Macron will visit Germany for an official state visit later this month where the two leaders are expected to discuss, among other things, priorities for the next EU mandate ahead of the European elections scheduled for June 6-9.

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Can Franco-German relations be rekindled over the Ukraine war? - Euronews