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This photograph, shared by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the social media platform X on Wednesday, Jan. 31, 2024, shows Ukrainian prisoners of war reacting after a prisoner exchange at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. (Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the social media platform X via AP - image credit)

As the grim two-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll suggests Canadians' engagement with the conflict is waning and support for Ukraine is weakening especially among Conservatives.

A survey released Tuesday morning bythe Angus Reid Institute saysa quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering "too much support" to Ukraine in its fight, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing in May 2022.

Conservative supportersare adriving force behind that result,according to the poll.

The percentageof Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, andwho now say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine, has more than doubled from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now according to the public opinion research group's findings.

"It's ... a massive jump," said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute. "This has the potential to be something of a political Gordian knot for Pierre Poilievre."

Sorting out the reasons behind the shift is largely an exercise in speculation at this point, saidKurl.

On the one hand, she said, there'sa longstanding tradition of support for the military among Conservative voters. That position may be in tension with Conservative support for small governments and lower taxes, she added.

"I don't want to overemphasize it but what is burgeoning, what is starting to sort of grow from out of the weeds into a fairly healthy seedling here, is this almost the Trump-esque, 'Canada First' mentality," she said.

"That mindset of conservative is not representative of the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the entirety of the base. It is a minority, but it is a passionate, vocal and growing minority."

The poll suggests the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too muchis also growing among NDP and Liberal voters. The percentage of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine jumped from 5 to 10 per cent among2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 per cent among 2021 NDP supporters.

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Since early 2022, the federal government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

An emotional debate about trade with Ukraine

The poll landed a day after another emotional debate in the House of Commons over a bill to implement an update to the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal.

The Liberals accused Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine when Conservative MPsvoted against the bill in November. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has attributed the opposition to "American MAGA-influenced thinking."

Poilievre, whose party has maintained a largepolling lead over Trudeau's Liberals for months, has said his party still supports Ukraine and its objection is to the mention of "carbon pricing" in the legislation.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses the national Conservative caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

"I really think it speaks to how pathologically obsessed Trudeau is with the carbon tax that, while the knife is at the throat of Ukrainians, he would use that to impose his carbon tax ideology on those poor people," Poilievre said in November.

The trade agreement imposes no obligation on the Ukrainian government to introduce a carbon tax.

Last week,Poilievre called on the Liberal government to donate to Ukraine tens of thousands of surplus air-to-ground rockets that are slated for disposal.

The Angus Reid poll suggests Canadians, by a three-to-one ratio, believe the Conservatives'vote against the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement will undermine Canada's reputation on the world stage. Half of likely Conservative voters believe there will be no effect at all, the poll says.

Kurl said elections based on foreign policy issues are rare in Canada, but for the first time in months Poilievre's opponents have something to talk about.

"He's spent little to no time on the defence and it has enabled him to stay very disciplined in terms of message and stay very focused in terms of a relentless attack on the government. And I'm not saying that those attacks in some cases haven't been cogent, or that they haven't been the result of really a litany ... of own-goals on the part of this government," said Kurl.

"But, you know, for the first time we we may be seeing something that puts Poilievre on the defence ..."

Canadians' interest dwindling

The Angus Reid Institute'ssurvey suggests the number of Canadians closely following news of the conflict has dropped from 66 per cent in May 2022 to 45 per centnow.

"Overall, Canadians are checking out of this conflict," said Kurl.

"And you can see that those who are less engaged are much more likely to also say, you know, we're helping too much, we've fulfilled our commitments."

The poll suggests Canadians remain divided on the role Canada should play in the war going forward.

One third of respondents agreed Canada should support Ukraine "as long as it takes," while one-in-ten believe that supportshould continue for only another year.

Foreign Minister Melanie Joly speaks to the media during a press conference with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Kyiv, Ukraine on Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletk)

Another 30 per cent are uncertain, while 20 per cent say they believe the war should end now with negotiations for peace initiated by Ukraine.

Just five per cent of respondents want Canada to end its support entirely.

The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online survey from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2024 usingarandomized sample of 1,617 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum.

For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Growing number of Conservative voters think Canada gives 'too much support' to Ukraine, poll suggests - Yahoo News Canada

The decision by Republicans in Congress to torpedo a bipartisan border deal they demanded has left the fate of aid to Ukraine and Israel in peril, closing off what had been seen as the best remaining avenue on Capitol Hill for approval of critical military aid to American allies.

The political paralysis in the face of pleas from President Biden, lawmakers in both parties and leaders around the world for quick action raised immediate questions about whether Congress would be able to salvage the emergency aid package and if so, how.

The result was a vivid portrait of congressional dysfunction at the hands of Republicans. After helping to kill a border crackdown they had insisted upon, they were set to spend the day in the House trying to impeach Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, on charges that he has willfully refused to enforce border laws.

Dug in against the border deal and new aid to Kyiv, the House also was set on Tuesday to try to push through legislation sending $17.6 billion in military assistance to Israel. But that measure, which omits help for Ukraine or humanitarian aid for Palestinians, was facing steep resistance from hard-right Republicans, who complained that the money was not paired with spending cuts. It also faced opposition from Democrats and Mr. Biden, who has threatened a veto, calling the bill a cynical attempt to pre-empt the security legislation brokered in the Senate.

Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, told lawmakers on Tuesday morning that he and the partys top leaders would oppose the Israel-only bill, saying that while they were prepared to support any serious, bipartisan effort to help Israel, the legislation was not being offered in good faith.

That raised questions about whether the measure, which Republicans are bringing up under special rules that require a two-thirds majority for approval, could pass the House.

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With Demise of Border Deal, No Clear Path for Ukraine and Israel Aid in Congress - The New York Times

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) will face one of the toughest challenges of his career this week when he tries to muster Senate Republicans to vote for a Ukraine funding and border security package that former President Trump wants to kill.

McConnells initial goal, according to Senate GOP colleagues, was to get a border security deal that would have the support of at least half of his conference, which numbers 49 members.

It now appears the defense supplemental spending bill, which includes the border security provisions as well as funding for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific security, will get less Republican support than that.

Aides are predicting between 12 and 20 Senate GOP votes for the bill, and that the vote total will shift as lawmakers digest the text of the legislation, which was finally made public Sunday evening.

The stakes are high for the 81-year-old Senate Republican leader, as he will come under significant pressure from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and other conservative critics to abandon the bill if it doesnt look like it will get much more than 10 GOP votes.

But if the legislation gets between 18 and 25 Senate Republican votes, that will then put heavy pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to take the bill up in the House, despite his earlier declaration it would likely be dead on arrival in the lower chamber.

McConnell declined to say last week whether he would favor moving ahead with a bill that had support from only a minority of his conference, and acknowledged he doesnt know exactly how the debate will play out.

Its certainly been a challenge, he admitted when asked if it was a mistake to link Ukraine aid to border security reform. But its time for us to move something, hopefully including a border agreement. But we need to get help to Israel and to Ukraine quickly.

Senate Republicans say McConnell has employed a soft-glove approach to persuading his Republican colleagues to support the bill, regularly reminding them of the national security threats facing the country and also of the fact that Trump pleaded with Congress to reform the nations asylum laws when he was president in 2018.

Its really about reading the room and persuading where you can and listening where you cant. Hes very good at all of that. His voice isnt as loud as it used to be. I think thats by his choice. I also think its also reflective of the situation were in right now. There are some people that feel strongly about the different sides of this issue, said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.).

McConnell is under withering criticism from his antagonists within the Republican conference, who are jumping on the issue to take shots at his leadership.

Cruz is leading the pressure campaign not to allow the bipartisan border security deal to reach the Senate floor, arguing it will put the new Speaker in a terrible position and give cover to vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection.

As a result of this foolhardy bill, Senate Democrats are out now beating their chests that the problem would now be solved if only Republicans would back it, Cruz told The Hill.

He says its the latest example of Senate GOP leaders negotiating bad deals behind closed doors in smoke-filled rooms and trying to ram them down the throat of the GOP conference.

And he says Senate Republicans who support the border security deal are behaving like the political arm of Chuck Schumers team, referring to the Senate Democratic leader.

But McConnells allies say his critics within the Senate GOP conference are usually the same group of people: Cruz and Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.).

We kind of hear the same things from the same guys, day after day and week after week, complained one GOP senator who supports McConnells efforts to get the emergency defense spending bill through both chambers.

McConnell is relying heavily on his top deputy, Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.), to explain the details of the legislation to skeptical members of his conference, and also to manage their expectations, given stiff opposition from Trump and many House conservatives.

My goal is to try and let the conference come to a collective decision about how they want to proceed and deal with this, said Thune, who has urged GOP colleagues to keep their powder dry on blasting away at the legislation until they have a chance to read it.

But Thune warned that if the deal gains only weak support from the conference, McConnell may decide to pivot to a Ukraine funding bill without border security reforms.

If we dont have a strong vote coming out of here, if we dont have a lot of Republicans behind it, then well probably end up having to pivot, he said.

GOP senators say McConnell has taken a while to recover from the concussion and fractured rib he suffered after falling at a March 2023 dinner at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington, D.C.

Several lawmakers said he doesnt speak as much at conference meetings as he used to but will interject at key moments to nudge the internal debate in one direction or another.

McConnell has reminded fellow GOP senators in recent weeks not to get too enmeshed into partisan skirmishing over President Bidens border policies, and to remember about the serious national security threats posed by Russia, China and Iran.

He says the United States now faces the most serious international situation it has since the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.

Cramer said the debate over the Ukraine-border security package is a harder one than most, but despite the staunch differences among Republican senators, he thinks McConnell is focused on the partys best political interests as well as achieving the best policy outcome.

Several Republican senators say winning back the Senate majority in the 2024 election will be more important to McConnells future as leader than whether he can get money for Ukraine passed through the Senate this year.

I dont think he would take a momentary victory over a longer-term governing majority, Cramer said. This will certainly be the easiest time in recent history and going forward to regain the majority. And if we dont, its going to be very, very hard to get it back for a long time.

Hes pragmatic that way, he said.

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McConnell faces career-defining test in Trump battle over Ukraine, border - The Hill

Attacks on the Kharkiv region, just over the border from Russia, have intensified recently

A two-month-old boy was killed and his mother wounded when a Russian missile hit a hotel in north-eastern Ukraine, officials say.

The baby's body was pulled out of the rubble of the three-storey building in the village of Zolochiv, said Kharkiv regional governor Oleh Synehubov.

Two other women were hurt when Russia fired two S-300 missiles, he said, hitting the hotel and nearby buildings.

Attacks on the Kharkiv region have intensified since the end of 2023.

Zolochiv is only 20km (12 miles) from the Russian border and too close for Ukraine's air defences to offer sufficient cover.

The S-300s that hit the hotel in the early hours of Tuesday were originally produced as surface-to-air missiles for Russia's air defences, but they have been adapted to hit Ukrainian targets on the ground. They are seen as cheaper than more accurate cruise missiles.

Last month, another hotel was hit by S-300 missiles in the city of Kharkiv, leaving a number of people wounded, including journalists covering the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces responded to Russia's bombardment in late December, with a deadly attack on the city of Belgorod, half an hour's drive from the border.

In a separate development, five people have been arrested by Ukraine's SBU security service on suspicion of involvement in a Russian spy ring.

The SBU said the five included current and former members of the main intelligence director and foreign intelligence service. It alleged they had provided Russia's FSB security service with details about the armed forces, energy infrastructure and the sites of US-made MRLS rocket launch systems.

Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine is nearing the end of its second year, with little success on the battlefield since the early weeks of the full-scale invasion.

Russian forces have focused much of their resources on trying to capture the eastern town of Avdiivka, considered a gateway to the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk.

The town's population has all but fled and most of its buildings have been reduced to rubble.

Ukraine's much-heralded counter-offensive last summer also delivered few territorial gains, although Ukrainian forces announced on Tuesday that they had put about a third of the warships in Russia's Black Sea Fleet out of action since the start of the war.

Only last week, Ukrainian military intelligence said it had sunk another warship, the Ivanovets, with naval attack drones on the west coast of occupied Crimea.

However, speculation is rife in Kyiv that President Volodymyr Zelensky is about to fire the widely popular armed forces chief, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, who admitted last November that the war had reached a stalemate.

President Zelensky told Italy's Rai TV this week that he was considering a "reset of some leaders of the state". "If we want to win, we, all of us, we have to be leaders of the victory. We cannot lose hope or give up in despair."

US military funding for Ukraine has been stalled in recent weeks because a White House request for $60bn (48bn) in aid for Kyiv has been blocked for weeks by Republicans in Congress after it became tied up in a US bill to tighten border security.

However, the European Union has just approved a four-year programme of aid worth 50bn (43bn) for Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, on a visit to Kyiv on Tuesday, said his aim was to underline the EU's unwavering support for Kyiv as the war neared its third year.

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Ukraine war: Baby killed in Russian strike on Kharkiv hotel - BBC.com

A 26-year-old Karolina Shiino from the Ukrainian city of Ternopil, who had recently won the Miss Japan pageant, renounced the title.

According to local media outlets, Karolina reported about the renouncement shortly after the information about her affair with a married Japanese man emerged in the media.

26-year-old Karolina renounced the Miss Japan title

Photo: Instagram of Karolina Shiino

Interestingly, Karolina never hid the relationship yet allegedly did not know about his marital status. Shiino herself said that she cut all ties with her boyfriend after finding out he was married.

The model agency Karolina works for claims that she continued seeing him even after discovering he has a wife.

Karolina claimed she had broken up with a married man while her model agency states she had not

Photo: Instagram of Karolina Shiino

Organisers of the contest stated that Karolina voluntarily renounced her win. She also "thinks deeply about her own role in the recent scandal". They noted that the Miss Japan title will remain vacant. Its next owner will be chosen in a year.

On her Instagram Karolina commented on the situation soon after the statement was made by the organisational committee. She confirmed that she had renounced her win and revealed that she had left the model agency she worked for.

"We would like to apologise for the inconveniences caused to the wife of Mr. Maeda and everyone involved. There were some discrepancies in what I explained to my agency a few days ago. Confusion and fear did not allow us to tell the truth.

I am sincerely saddened that they are talking about me (online ed.) and telling everyone who supports me something untruthful. I take this situation seriously and renounce my Miss Japan win. I have also turned to my agency with a request to withdraw me from the affiliate, and this decision was made. We sincerely apologise for the inconveniences this has caused and for betraying everyone supporting us," she wrote.

The Miss Japan title will remain vacant until next year

Photo: Instagram of Karolina Shiino

Background: Karolina was born in Ternopil Oblast but moved to Japan with her mother when she was 5 years old. After her win in the contest a discussion sparked online concerning whether it was right that a woman with a European appearance won the title.

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"Miss Japan" winner from Ukraine renounces title amid scandal - Yahoo News