Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

Zelensky Visits Baltic Nations to Rally Support for Ukraine – The New York Times

In Estonia, a four-story banner that combines the flags of Ukraine and Estonia hangs over a main square in the capital, Tallinn. In Latvia, Foreign Minister Krisjanis Karins is calling for allies to ramp up military support to Ukraine without delay.

And the leader of Lithuania, where President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine began a tour of Baltic States on Wednesday, recently made a pointed plea to help Kyiv hold the line against invading Russian forces as support for Ukraine in the war elsewhere in Europe threatens to fragment.

For all those saying they are tired of war in Ukraine a reminder by the terrorist Russia that theres no limit to its brutality & thirst for blood, President Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania wrote on the social media platform X on Dec. 29, hours after a Russian barrage of missiles and drones slammed into cities across Ukraine.

Almost nowhere is the emotional investment for Ukraines war effort stronger than in the Baltics, where the three former Soviet states declared independence at the end of the Cold War to escape Russias grip. Mr. Zelenskys trip there this week, an early diplomatic foray of 2024, comes as he tries to rally support for his war effort from a bastion of political backing while other European nations show increasing fatigue and financial distress from a war that began nearly two years ago.

Mr. Zelensky said on Wednesday that his trip, which will also take him to Tallinn in Estonia and Riga in Latvia, was meant to show Ukraines gratitude for the uncompromising support for Ukraine since 2014 and especially now, during Russias full-scale aggression.

Pavlo Klimkin, a former foreign minister of Ukraine, said the trip was intended to engage our friends who are close to us in their understanding of Russia to push for assistance in D.C., in Brussels, because this assistance is critical for us now.

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Zelensky Visits Baltic Nations to Rally Support for Ukraine - The New York Times

Bloodied and exhausted: Ukraine’s effort to mobilize more troops hits trouble – POLITICO Europe

KYIV Ukraine's parliament on Thursday withdrew a mobilization bill that would supply more troops to the front, but which has come under ferocious attack for flaws in how it was drafted.

"Nothing will happen under the law on mobilization. Neither today nor tomorrow. Nor in the near future," Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak of the pro-European opposition Voice party said on Telegram.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerovsaid the bill will be revamped and submitted for government approval in the near future.

"This law is necessary for the defense of our state and every soldier who is currently at the front. It needs to be approved as soon as possible," he said in a Facebook post.

The bill presented to parliament over Christmas generated enormous controversy with its aims of cutting the draft age from 27 to 25, of limiting deferrals for men with slight disabilities, and of increasing penalties for draft-dodgers. But some parliamentarians claimed it wasn't clearly formulated and included human rights violations.

The purpose of the bill is to send more soldiers to battle; the military has said it needs an additional half-million men this year. The extra troops would allow exhausted frontline soldiers who have been fighting for almost two years to rotate home, while also holding the line against the 617,000 Russians fighting in Ukraine. The latter figure was given by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is increasing the ranks of the Russian military by nearly 170,000 to a whopping 1.3 million.

Ukraine's army now has some 850,000 troops, according to the country's State Military Media Center and the Global Firepower Index.

The mobilization plan, however, is politically toxic.

In the early weeks of the war in February 2022, Ukrainians lined up at draft centers to join the army, while across Europe Ukrainian truck drivers, builders and waiters left their jobs to return home and fight.

But after months of bloody stalemate that continued to cost thousands of lives, that early enthusiasm has evaporated. Meanwhile, military corruption scandals and a sense of exhaustion both at home and among Ukraine's allies have made joining up far less appealing.

The mobilization bill has been sent back to be reworked, with Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets saying some provisions could violate the constitution, and Anastasia Radina, head of the parliamentary anti-corruption committee, predicting it could increase the risk of corruption.

We can already say that there will be changes to the bill. There will be no mobilization of disabled people, no possibility for local authorities discretion on mobilization issues, and also no significant limitations of human rights, Fedir Venislavsky, an MP and member of the parliament's defense committee, told POLITICO.

The enormous strain the war has placed on Ukraine has been reflected in the conflict over the mobilization bill.

Over a fifth of Ukraine's GDP or about $46 billion out of an economy of $214 billion is going toward the war effort, with about half used to pay troops and a quarter feeding the military industrial complex. Simply put, Ukraine's entire government budget is being spent on the war, with billions in aid from the EU and the U.S. helping fund the rest of the economy.

But that aid is increasingly in question stuck in Washington thanks to resistance from the Republican Party, and blocked in Brussels by Hungary. That has forced Kyiv to balance between finding enough new soldiers to continue to prosecute the war while also ensuring enough taxpayers and workers remain to keep the economy and war industries afloat.

The mobilization of an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people will cost Ukraine 500 billion hryvnia (12 billion) and I would like to know where the money will come from, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in December. Considering that it takes six Ukrainian working civilians paying taxes to pay the salary of one soldier, I would need to get 3 million more working people somewhere to be able to pay for the additional troops."

Speaking in Estonia on Thursday, Zelenskyy said: "If you are in Ukraine and you are not at the front, but you work and pay taxes, you also defend the state. And this is very necessary." He added that Ukrainians who have fled the country and are neither fighting nor paying taxes face an ethical dilemma.

"If we want to save Ukraine, if we want to save Europe, then all of us must understand: Either we help Ukraine or we don't. Either we are citizens who are at the front, or we are citizens who work and pay taxes," he said.

Pavlo Kazarin, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier, broke the calculation down in a Facebook post.

In order to wage war, a country needs money it is what keeps the economy afloat. It needs weapons without weapons it is impossible to talk about resistance. Also, we need soldiers. And if the first two resources can be provided to us by our allies, people capable of defending the country live in Ukraine, he said.

Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said the mobilization bill is very unpopular, so politicians are afraid to take ownership; even Zelenskyy prefers the legislation be proposed by the government rather than championing it himself. At the same time, it is broadly recognized that the mobilization process must improve and that the military's needs must be met.

"The draft law on mobilization needs significant refinement and the search for an optimal balance of interests between the provision of military needs and the financial and economic capabilities and needs of the state; between the front and the rear; between the needs of the military and public sentiment," Fesenko posted on Facebook.

A key concern is that pulling men from offices and factories and putting them in uniform will tank the economy, but that may be overblown, said Kazarin, the Ukrainian soldier.

"They forget only that in case of successful mobilization, all those hands that have been holding weapons for the past few years will be released from duty in a year, he said. "Many of those who serve in the army today were quite successful businessmen, specialists, and IT professionals before the war. They held the front for two years, leaving the rear to you. And now it's your turn.

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Bloodied and exhausted: Ukraine's effort to mobilize more troops hits trouble - POLITICO Europe

The Biden Administration’s Slow Yes Has Doomed Ukraine – TIME

Its often been said that the second-best answer to yes is a fast no, and that the worst answer of all is a slow no. As the war in Ukraine closes out its second year, and as victory on the battlefield or a negotiated settlement appear as elusive as ever, were seeing that when it has come to Ukraines requests for international supportparticularly military aidtheres an answer that has proven worse than a slow no: the slow yes.

As President Zelensky petitions the U.S. and NATO for continued support, with high-profile visits to several capitals in December, and as Congress fights over another aid package to Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO are now shipping to Kyiv many of the sensitive weapon systems that Ukrainian officials have been requesting since 2022. Despite shortfalls in Western production capacity, this includes first-generation main battle tanks like the M1A1 Abrams, long range precision artillery like HIMARS, and fighter jets like the F-16. As these weapons systems arrived on the battlefield in the last few months, albeit in smaller numbers than the Ukrainians would like, its to an environment thats changed radically since they were first requested. Large swaths of territory havent exchanged hands between Russia and Ukraine in more than a year. Putins forces are no longer stunned by Ukrainian overperformance, but dug in with extensive fortifications and trenches. The war of movement is over. Opportunity is dwindling.

In the first six months of the war, when Ukraine seized the initiative on the battlefield, it was easy to imagine that if the U.S. and NATO had then aggressively fulfilled Ukraines requests for weapons and the training of their crews, which also takes time, that this couldve had a decisive impact. In the lead up to war and the early days of the invasion, the argument against sending military aid to Ukraine was that their understrength military didnt stand a chance against the Russians. However, as Ukraine mounted a successful resistance, the argument against providing NATO weapons systems to Ukraine changed. NATO and the U.S. refused to provide Ukraine with many of the weapons its providing now out of fear that this could lead to an escalation of the war, in which Russia might attack a NATO member nation or turn the war nuclear.

Read More: Zelensky's Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight

Putin adeptly stoked fear of escalation among Ukraines allies even though many analysts believed those fears were overblown. In those critical early months, when the Russian military was off balance, the Biden Administration claimed to be concerned that if Putin saw the wrong type of tank, missile, or jet in Ukraine, he might respond with a nuclear weapon. These fears caused the Biden Administration and European allies to squander precious time, and that time allowed Russia to regroup.

Mine roller on a U.S. Army M1A1 Abrams tank as supplied to Ukraine. In Grafenwoehr, the US Army trains members of the Ukrainian armed forces for use on the American M1A1 Abrams tank.

Matthias Merz/dpa-Getty Images

In October 2022, after Ukraine had launched its successful Kharkiv counteroffensive that reclaimed 12,000 square kilometers of territory, President Biden didnt tout this success; instead, he warned Americans of a potential nuclear Armageddon after Putin insinuated that his lost territory could lead to grave consequences for Ukraine and the West. When it comes to military aid, Putin has used his nuclear deterrence to regulate the flow of conventional arms to Ukraine. And that has given him a key advantage to set the pace for parts of the war. He chose when to ratchet up or down his threats and the U.S. responded by ratcheting up or down supplies. This has led to a kind of phony war, in which the U.S. and NATO cheer Ukraines victories and gradually provide Ukraine with high-end weapons, but dole them out slowly and in numbers small enough to allow Ukraine to fight but not to win.

This is America and NATOs slow yes strategy.

In war every country pursues its national interests. Although the interest of the U.S. and Ukraine overlap, theyre not one in the same. Ukraine is fighting a war of national survival, an existential war. When it comes to Russia, throughout its history failed wars have preceded the collapse of the regime. Whether its the First World War and the collapse of the Tzarist Regime, or the War in Afghanistan and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russias autocracies seldom survive a lost war. And so, like Ukraine, Putin is also fighting an existential war.

This has led to a paradox in U.S. policy. We believe that the survival of Ukraine is key to the stability of Europe. But we also recognize that if Putin believes he is going to lose, hell become volatile. We fear what this means for the stability of Europe and even the world. When it comes to U.S. national interests, having either side win the war outright is too dangerous. So instead, weve crafted a policy that seems to allow neither side to lose. Our slow yes is bleeding Ukraine and Russia dry.

As Russia continues to reinforce its frontline positions, and as Ukraine finally receives higher-end weapons systems from NATO and pursues EU membership, it would appear as though the war is entering its frozen stagea stage which neither side can win. Such an outcome wouldnt preclude ceasefire negotiations akin to those that occurred in the Korean War, a conflict that, technically, is still ongoing. However, this outcome precludes the victory Ukrainians have spoken of since Putins invasion, in which the territories Russia seized in 2022 and even, perhaps, in 2014 would be returned to Ukraine.

Had the Biden administration and its NATO allies decisively armed and supported Ukraine in the early days of the war, its possible the Russian invasion couldve failed. But such decisive support was probably never going to arrive. Our national interests didnt align closely enough with Ukraines. A strategy as simple and clear as President Reagans famous Cold War imperative We win, they lose isnt practicable in todays multipolar world. The U.S. has long been operating as though it needs a stable Russia as much as it needs a free Ukraine.

In the New Year the war will continue. The new weapons will arrive, and progress will continue to be measured in small increments. Ukraines allies will continue to offer a slow yes in response to requests they send us in blood.

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The Biden Administration's Slow Yes Has Doomed Ukraine - TIME

World News in Brief: Wave of ‘fear and dread’ in Ukraine, UN expert slams Navalny disappearance, youth leaders for … – UN News

Thats according to UN Childrens Fund (UNICEF) Regional Director Regina De Dominicis who said in a statement on Monday that bombardment was particularly unrelenting in the east and south of the country.

The UNICEF official said the past week provided a concerning trend with an increase in ballistic missiles and mass drone attacks, including widespread targeted attacks on Kyivs infrastructure.

These attacks have caused injuries among children, sent an intensified wave of fear and dread through already deeply distressed communities, and left millions of children across Ukraine without sustained access to electricity, heating and water, exposing them to additional serious harm as temperatures plummet, she said.

Children and families most at risk are those who already have the least access to basic, life-depending resources to start with, and who have already endured immense hardship, she added. These children and their families have nothing to fall back on.

Winter temperatures regularly go as low as -20C.

Children simply cannot withstand these conditions without energy, she warned.

Blackouts and power cuts make it extremely challenging for health facilities to provide critical services, another dire situation given the rise in cases of pneumonia, seasonal influenza and waterborne diseases among children across Ukraine.

Around 1,800 children have been killed or injured since the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

UNICEF is providing generators and other equipment to support the Government of Ukraine in keeping water supply, heating, health and education facilities running, said Ms. De Dominicis. In the hardest hit areas, UNICEF is providing winter clothing sets for children along with blankets for their families. We are also reaching families with cash assistance.

Jailed Russian opposition figure Alexey Navalny should be immediately released and provided remedies and reparations for all the harm suffered in accordance with international law, a UN-appointed independent rights expert said on Monday.

Mr. Navalnys whereabouts have been unknown for over 10 days, which according to Mariana Katzarova, the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Russia, amounts to enforced disappearance.

I am greatly concerned that the Russian authorities will not disclose Mr. Navalnys whereabouts and wellbeing for such a prolonged period of time, she said.

A Friday court hearing on the violations of Mr. Navalny's human rights in detention did not take place and Mr. Navalnys lawyers were reportedly told by the court that their client is no longer held in the Vladimir region.

Ms. Katzarova cited concerns about Mr. Navalnys persistent ill-treatment in detention and lack of access to adequate medical care since January 2021.

On 4 August 2023 he was sentenced to an additional 19 years on extremism charges, a term which, according to the independent expert, has no basis in international law.

Following sentencing Mr. Navalny was being prepared to be transferred to a harsher regime penal colony. Three of his lawyers were arrested in October.

Human Rights Council-appointed independent experts, including Special Rapporteurs, serve in their individual capacity and receive no salary for their work, nor are they UN staff members.

The 100 young people selected to serve on the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs Youth Leader Fund for a World without Nuclear Weapons, met together for the first time on Monday.

Representing over 60 countries and selected from over 2,000 applicants from around the world, they will spend the next year learning about nuclear disarmament and developing their skills to become changemakers for a world without nuclear weapons the most destructive weapons on earth, said the UN disarmament affairs office (UNODA) in a news release.

As part of this innovative training programme, made possible by the generous support of Japan and implemented by UNODA - with support from the United Nations Institute for Training and Research they will take part in interactive online learning, engagement with experts from the field and an immersive study tour to Japan, including participation in a youth-led conference.

As the programme kicked off on Monday, the future changemakers heard from the Prime Minister of Japan Mr. Fumio Kishida, and UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres.

Prime Minister Kishida, a native of Hiroshima, has been a strong advocate for keeping alive the lessons of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki which wrought tremendous death, suffering and devastation.

No matter how difficult the path to a world without nuclear weapons may be, we should not stop our steps. Now is the time when we need the power of young people like you, the bearers of our future, he told the group.

In his message, Mr. Guterres encouraged the participants to tap into their energy, innovative ideas, and creativity to help usher in a new era of a world free of nuclear weapons.

In the name of our common future in the name of humanity let us spare no effort to rid the world of nuclear weapons, once and for all, he said.

In recent years, the Secretary-General has made a major push to empower youth, recognizing their role as the ultimate force for change and noting they have become a strong and powerful force in support of disarmament.

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World News in Brief: Wave of 'fear and dread' in Ukraine, UN expert slams Navalny disappearance, youth leaders for ... - UN News

Biden faces battle with Democratic base over Israel, Ukraine, border – The Hill

President Biden is facing a fight with his base over an emergency foreign aid spending package that may reach the Senate floor this week.

The package, which would provide aid to Israel and Ukraine but include tough border security measures in order to win over Republicans, could add to his problems generating enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

Young Democrats in particular are increasingly disaffected with Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, complicating his ability to connect with a key demographic that views the presidents age as a red flag.

Now Biden also faces blowback from Latino and progressive voters about the border security deal. It reportedly would give the president broader authority to expel migrants without asylum screenings or detain them at the border.

Bidens readiness to embrace a deal appears to be part of a calculation that he needs to appeal more to moderate and independent voters to win reelection, given the persistent skepticism among many younger progressives about a second Biden term.   

It could also simply be the price for winning support for Ukraine, now that border measures have been tied to funding for Kiev.

Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who has worked on several presidential and vice-presidential campaigns, warned that Biden can expect blowback from his base.  

It will, in the short term, undoubtedly result in some people being very upset. Thats part of what these compromises are about, he said.  

But he also cast it as something that could help Biden long-term.

I do think that if somehow he and his team can pull off some kind of comprehensive deal which would provide funding for Ukraine and to an extent for Israel, as well as deal with what is perceived to be a very difficult situation at the border, I think it will be a big win for the president, Devine said.

He also said the reality is that Biden has to deal with a radicalized Republican Party given the GOPs control of the House.

Yes, I think there will be blowback, but will that extend all the way until next November? I dont think it will, Devine said.

Biden is getting stronger pushback from Democrats in Congress as negotiators close in on a border security deal. 

My message to [the president] is clear: We cannot cave to Republicans demands for ineffective and cruel Trump-era immigration policies as a price to be paid for aid to our allies, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who is emerging as a leading advocate for immigrants rights in Congress, warned Friday.

Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, said Biden appears to be making more of a play for centrist and swing voters to make up for his weak numbers with Democratic voters. 

He feels that there arent enough voters among Latinos for an open border policy, he said of the president.  

Biden may calculate that the prospect of Trump returning to the White House will establish a floor for his support among Democratic voters, Baker added.

One of the basic assumptions is he can never alienate the left enough to cause them to desert him in the face of a challenge from Trump, Baker said.

Many Democratic lawmakers and strategists think Democratic voters will rally around Biden if former President Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, as polls forecast.  

But the persistent lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters for a second Biden term especially young voters has become a top concern within the party.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month showed Biden virtually tied with Trump among voters younger than 30, with 30 percent supporting the president and 29 percent favoring Trump.

Its a dramatic drop compared to the 2020 election, when Biden carried 60 percent of voters under 30.  

An NBC poll released last month found that 70 percent of voters aged 18-34 disapprove of Bidens handling of the war in Gaza.  

And a Quinnipiac poll from last month showed 41 percent of Democratic voters said their sympathies lie with Palestinians, while 34 percent said they were more sympathetic toward Israelis.

Growing concerns among Democratic voters over the carnage in Gaza has bubbled up among Democrats in Congress. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called on Biden this past week to cut $10.1 million in military aid to Israel, arguing the destruction in Gaza has surpassed the U.S. firebombing of Dresden and Japanese cities in World War II.

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) shared a New York Times op-ed on the social media platform X urging the United States to change course on Gaza.  

He urged his Senate colleagues to read it and work to protect and prevent innocent lives from being lost.

Bidens poor ratings on the war come on top of concerns that younger Democratic voters have about his broader handling of the economy and his age.

A Wall Street Journal poll published last week revealed that less than a third of voters under the age of 35 think the economy is doing well. It also showed Biden underperforming with young voters and Black and Latino voters.

A CNN poll conducted in late August showed that two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters wanted a nominee other than Biden. About half of the Democrats surveyed said Bidens age was their biggest concern.

A senior Senate Republican aid speculated that Bidens weak support from Democratic base voters was a major factor behind the presidents reluctance to engage with Republicans in serious negotiations over border security until last week.

GOP senators say Bidens team came to the table so late that it will be impossible to get the emergency aid package passed through both the Senate and House until next year.   

The bright side for Biden is that signing a bill that provides billions in new military aid to Israel and cracks down on the flow of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border could help vulnerable senators up for reelection in Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Devine, the Democratic strategist, said a deal on Ukraine and Israel funding and border security reform will help Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.).  

Its important in those states and races, he said. This is not going to be about winning in base Democratic states, its going to be about winning in swing states. 

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