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With the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, the Biden administration now seems to realize that Ukrainian victory is highly unlikely, and that at some point there will need to be negotiations. However, it hopes to defer this problem until after the next elections, when it can no longer harm Biden at the pollsor it becomes a Republican administrations worry, which, at present, most likely means a Trump administration. Echoing the Biden administrations stance, all other major players involved in the war in Ukraine also seem to be waiting for the next U.S. presidential election.

It is of course a long time until the next U.S. presidential election, and much may happen in that time both in the U.S. and Ukraine, but, at present, opinion polls suggest both that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential candidate and that he stands a good chance of beating Joe Biden.Asecond Trump presidency seems likely to mean greatly reduced support for Ukraine, possibly combined with a U.S. push for a peace settlement. Without very high levels of U.S. military aid ($61.4 billion to date), it will be impossible for Ukraine to continue the fight.

A second Trump administration is a prospect that European governments dread, but that they cannot influence. Nor do they have the ability, unity or will either to initiate negotiations themselves, or to substitute for U.S. military aid to Ukraine. They are therefore alsoin waiting mode.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian establishment is in a state of great confusion and division. Awareness is dawning that the chances of complete victory are slight, and time is not on Ukraines side; but the government has declared so often and so publicly that a compromise peace is unacceptable (especially concerning even a temporary territorial compromise during a ceasefire) that it will be extremely difficult for them to agree to talks, unless they come under massive public pressure from Washington or suffer a severe military defeat.

As for the Russian government, it senses that time is on its side, and also appears willing to wait in the hope that Russias far greater reserves of manpower and ammunition combined with Western and Ukrainian war weariness will eventually force Ukraine to accept Russian terms (albeit ones that would probably be far less than Moscow hoped for when it launched the war). Vladimir Putinwho is poised to run for reelection in the springalso hopes that a Trump administration would promote such a settlement.

Russian hopes are, however, qualified by the previous Trump administrations actual record in office. TheMueller andDurham reports have debunked the allegations both of covert links between Trump and Vladimir Putin, and that Russian interference played a critical role in the 2016 elections. Even more importantly, the Trump administration did nothing at all in practical terms to seek a new relationship with Russia.

On the contrary: during Trumps term, the offer (however deferred) of NATO membership to Ukraine was not withdrawn; the United States went on arming and training the Ukrainian armed forces; and, accusing Russia of cheating, Trump withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. Trump made friendly statements about Putin, but these led to no practical results whatsoever. In part, this is because economic sanctions on Russia are controlled by the U.S. Senate, and Trump has never had the attention, the skill or the influence to seriously sway Senate votes. A Trump promise to lift sanctions on Russiahighly important to the success of any peace settlementwould therefore very likely be blocked.

It can of course be argued that Trump was so uninterested in actual policy, and his administration so dysfunctional and chaotic, that his senior officials acted in direct contravention of the presidents wishes. Certainly, if Trump had really wished for compromise with Russia, to appoint Mike Pompeo, John Bolton and Gen. H.R. McMaster to his team was nothing short of lunacy on his part. There is therefore concern in Moscow that a future Trump administration would simply not be able to deliver a peace settlement, let alone one that would stick. Trump has stated publicly that as president, he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, but he has provided no details at all about how he would do this.

The question therefore arises whether a second Trump administration will be more disciplined and united,and there are efforts in the conservative camplike Project 2025, which provides a blueprint for conservative control over the different branches of federal bureaucracyto ensure just this outcome. Should Trump, if elected, appoint someone like Sen. J.D. Vance to a top position, this would obviously create a strong voice in his administration for compromise with Russia. This would be even more so if Trumps legal troubles keep him from running and instead he supports someone like Vance as president.

Then again, given the deep divisions within the Republican establishment, and the bitter hostility to Trump on the part of the U.S. bipartisan foreign and security establishment as a whole, it would be extremely difficult for a Trump administration to find people with the qualifications to serve in senior foreign and security policy positions. Some former officials who would in principle support compromise with Russia over Ukraine have already indicated in private that they would never serve in a Trump administration.

On the other hand, it is possible that U.S. establishment thinking will also shift over the course of the next year. Indeed, as is clear from articles and remarks acknowledging the failure of the Ukrainian offensive, this process has already begun. If the existing stalemate continues, or Russia makes significant new gains, the United States will ultimately be faced with a choice between either accepting a settlement, or intervening directly on the side of Ukrainesomething that President Joe Biden and the vast majority of U.S. politicians have explicitly ruled out.

U.S. problems elsewhere may also increase the view presently held by a Realist section of the Republican Party that the United States is dangerously over-extended, and that it is necessary to seek compromise with Russia in order to concentrate on the greater threat from China, and on support for Israel. Growing conflict in the Middle East could strengthen this view in Washington. So could a new crisis with China over Taiwan or a new major terrorist attack on the United States.

A frightening escalation of nuclear tension with Russia as a result of some unintended clash between Russian and NATO forces could also shock Americans into a desire to bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. In any of these situations, a President Trump might find quite strong support for an effort at a peace settlement in Ukraine. He would also of course face bitter opposition, within the United States, from some European governments, and from many Ukrainians.

Any peace settlement based on the existing battle lines in Ukraine, even if it included Ukrainian neutrality, would fall far short of what the Russian government hoped for when it launched its invasion in February 2022. By far the greater part of Ukraine would remain independent of Moscow and closely aligned with the West. It would also of course fall far short of Ukrainian hopes of defeating Russia completely and recovering all territory lost since 2014.

For a hypothetical future Trump administration to achieve a peace agreement minimally acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow, it would take exceptionally skillful diplomacy, as well as a U.S. readiness to accept China as an equal partner in the peace process, and to reach out to India and other countries of the Global South for help. These are not features that have been characteristic of U.S. policy in recent yearsleast of all the last Trump administration. Therefore, for Ukraine, the most likely result of a Trump administration may simply be radically diminished U.S. support, causing Russia to make new gains on the battlefield and, perhaps, leading to an imposed peace.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily represent those of the Quincy Institute. Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead shared in the public domain.

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What Would a Trump Administration Mean for the War in Ukraine? - Russia Matters

War destruction offers a chance to rebuild Ukraine in a way that considers its changing identity and with special attention for people with disabilities such as soldiers and amputees, writes Anna Romandash.

Anna Romandash is the Fourth Freedom Forums first Howard S. Brembeck Fellow, an award-winning journalist from Ukraine, and the author ofWomen of Ukraine: Reportages from the War and Beyond.

Russia continues waging its war and missiles keep falling on Ukrainian cities. Destruction and deaths are regular occurrences across the country, which has been dealing with the Russian aggression for nearly ten years.

Yet, Ukraine is rebuilding itself as we speak. Neither the government nor the civil society are waiting for the war to end. Instead, people are already restoring whats been damaged or lost and are trying to put as much normalcy into the war-affected areas as possible, given the situation.

In many cases, destruction offers a chance to rebuild Ukraine in a way that considers its changing identity such as without any of the clichs and influences of the Soviet occupation or colonial past. A lot of reconstruction is also influenced by the ongoing war such as building schools underground for safety reasons and upgrading security requirements for new projects.

Yet, what about inclusive reconstruction? Are the buildings, roads, and other infrastructure barriers free and friendly to those with disabilities? Is the Ukrainian reconstruction project adapted to the need to serve the people who have special needs and whose rights have been deprived for many years, primarily due to the Soviet legacy of keeping people with disabilities inside, invisible to their communities?

In reality, Ukraine can no longer ignore people with disabilities. Before the full-scale invasion, there were nearly three million Ukrainians who had a disability almost 10% of the population. Now, with the continuous aggression, explosions, and attacks, the number of disabled individuals is likely to grow and it is expected to explode when the majority of the soldiers return from the war and go through rehabilitation processes.

The government of Ukraine recognises the need to rebuild the country inclusively and there are platforms and spaces for discussion with relevant civil society organisations and activists working on disability rights. Civil forums and government-community exchanges enable more cooperation on an inclusive strategy for rebuilding Ukraine.

Further, there are pilot projects with civil society consulting the government and local communities to ensure the reconstruction in different localities is disability-friendly.

So the reality is somewhat hopeful because the rights and needs of people with disabilities are at least taken into account now. Before, these groups were mostly invisible and marginalised, so this large percentage of Ukraines population had no say in the vision of their countrys future.

This discussion is at least happening amid the war and chaos, which is already a big step forward. Politicians and policymakers are aware of the need for inclusive reconstruction, and average Ukrainians are increasingly more knowledgeable and receptive toward disability rights.

This is not enough, however. Inclusive reconstruction is not about giving privileges to people with disabilities because equal access and human rights empower society as a whole and not only a selected few.

Throughout the entire Russian aggression in Ukraine, people with disability had to rely on themselves to get to safety as there were no accessible shelters and few options for fleeing from insecure areas on their own.

As Ive been reporting on the Russian war, Ive talked to many people with disabilities who had to evacuate themselves on inaccessible trains, rely on peoples kindness, ask others to tell them what was happening when they could not hear or read the urgent information, and face the terrifying reality of being abandoned.

People were often left to their own devices amid the state of highest panic during the early days of the full-scale invasion. There are lots of closed institutions for people with mental disabilities which were not evacuated on time when Russia occupied Ukrainian territories.

Often, when people with mental disabilities managed to flee the occupation, they did so all alone, without any accompaniment. When they arrived in Ukraine-controlled areas, they struggled to get accessible information or help.

There are many failures when it comes to caring for recently disabled people such as soldiers-amputees returning from the frontlines, or civilians hurt as a result of the invasion. The Ukrainian state cannot serve them all and provide adequate medical and other support and this task is often outsourced to civil society organisations and international partners.

Yet, there are things where civil society cannot replace the state such as an actual infrastructure update and fixing and constructing roads, buildings, and other spaces that are accessible and disability-friendly.

Civil society is also not the one which determines Ukraines education system such as launching inclusive educational programs and making sure that children with disability have access to regular schools and get to socialise with their peers.

These and other fundamental tasks are the states responsibility and it is crucial that the Ukrainian government prioritises inclusiveness and makes it a national policy. This goes beyond ramps on the pedestrian walkways, enabling more access to information for people with special needs, more visibility and representation in policymaking, and a shift in education.

Ukraine is undergoing rapid decolonisation by freeing itself from the remains of the Soviet past. It was a Soviet approach of locking people with disabilities in their homes or closed institutions as second-class citizens.

Now, Ukraine has a unique opportunity not only to rebuild itself but to do it right so Ukraines reconstruction caters to all communities. As Ukraine strives to become an EU member state, it should borrow some of the better practices from its Western neighbours so its reconstruction is disability-friendly and genuinely inclusive.

People with disabilities shared different experiences during the Russian war. Many became volunteers rescuing others from the most dangerous areas. Some were forced to flee the country. There are also people with disabilities serving in Ukraines Armed Forces. Regardless of each experience, people with disabilities are no longer invisible in Ukrainian society and they need to have the equal rights and accessibility they deserve.

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Inclusive reconstruction of Ukraine: What's at stake? - EURACTIV

[1/4]Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Swiss President Alain Berset, Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte attend an international summit on food security 'Grain from Ukraine', amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine November 25,... Acquire Licensing Rights Read more

KYIV, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Ukraine needs more air defences to protect its grain export routes as well as regions bordering Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday, as he addressed an international summit on food security in Kyiv.

"There is a deficit of air defence - that is no secret," Zelenskiy told the Grain from Ukraine summit, which was attended by senior officials from European countries, including Swiss President Alain Berset and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte.

Zelenskiy was speaking after Russia attacked Ukraine with 75 drones overnight, the biggest drone assault of the war. The joint press conference of the three leaders was cut short by another air raid siren.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine would be supplied by its foreign partners with vessels to accompany convoys of cargo ships from Ukraine's ports to guarantee their security.

"I have agreements with several countries about powerful accompaniment of convoys by Ukrainians, but using (foreign) equipment," he said.

Separately, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged support in a letter to Zelenskiy that she shared on social media platform X, saying the Commission would make available 50 million euros for "quick repairs and upgrades of infrastructure in Ukraine's ports."

The Ukrainian president said Kyiv hoped to solve its air defence shortage through new supplies from partners and increasing its own production capacity, something on which he said there had been progress.

"As of today, I can't say details what we are making and where, but there is progress," he said.

Ukraine, a major exporter of grain, has been exporting grain via unilateral corridors through the Black sea, after Russia withdrew in July from a UN-brokered deal to allow grain ships through its blockade.

Ukraine's current Black sea grain export corridors all start from ports in Ukraine's southern region of Odesa.

"There are certain air defence systems... we are asking for them," Zelenskiy said. "We've already got an answer when those systems will start to guard that region. Because there, both the corridor and the people are important."

Asked about the protests by Polish and Slovak truckers which have blocked much of Ukraine's road-based cargo supply in recent days, Zelenskiy blamed the problem on the internal politics of those countries.

"I believe that there are difficulties on the border first and foremost because of certain political steps by our neighbours," he told a press conference after the summit.

Zelenskiy said he was confident the issue would be solved if Ukraine's neighbours were given "a bit of time" to deal with the dispute.

Reporting by Max Hunder; additional reporting by Elaine Monaghan in Washington; Editing by Hugh Lawson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ukraine needs more air defences to protect grain exports, Zelenskiy says - Reuters

Russia said Sunday it had downed Ukrainian drones over five regions, including Moscow, as well as two Ukrainian missiles over the Azov Sea, a day after a large-scale Russian drone attack on Kyiv.

Russia and Ukraine have hit each with drones for months, as Moscow's offensive drags on for a 22nd month, with little significant movement on the front, despite fierce fighting.

Russia said the drones hit the Moscow region, other regions near the capital as well as regions bordering Ukraine.

"Air defense destroyed nine drones over the territory of the Moscow, Tula, Kaluga and Bryansk regions," Russia's defense ministry said early on Sunday.

It later said that another four Ukrainian drones were downed over the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, as well as the southwestern Smolensk region and the Tula region, which lies north of Moscow.

The attacks came a day after Ukraine said Russia had launched 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones, mostly aimed at Kyiv, in what it said was a "record" since Moscow's offensive last year.

Ukraine has upped attacks on Russia since launching its counter-offensive this summer, and has hit regions close to fighting zones as well as further inland into Russia, including Moscow itself.

The Russian army also said Sunday it had downed two Ukrainian missiles over the Azov Sea that it said were headed for Russia.

Russia controls the Ukrainian Azov Sea coast, which fell to Moscow early in its offensive last year.

Local authorities in the affected regions did not report casualties.

"I call on refraining to share photographs or videos of the drones on social media," the Smolensk governor Vasily Anokhin wrote on Telegram, adding that emergency services were working in areas that were hit.

Smolensk region, which borders Belarus, has been mostly spared from drone attacks.

On the battlefield, fighting has now focused around the industrial hub of Avdiivka, which appears almost encircled by Russian forces.

The fall of Avdiivka a symbol of Ukrainian resistance since 2014 would be a significant loss for Kyiv.

Ukraine, meanwhile, reported Russian attacks in the south and east of the country.

The head of the southern city of Kherson, Roman Mrochko, said two urban districts were shelled and that information of possible victims was being clarified.

Regional authorities in the Kherson region said around a dozen villages were left without electricity due to bad weather and Russian attacks.

Kyiv has been preparing for weeks for a feared renewal of Moscow's campaign to hit its energy grid in a possible repeat of last year, when thousands were left without power in freezing temperatures.

"Due to bad weather and Russian shelling, a number of settlements in our region were left without electricity," the head of the Kherson region Oleksandr Prokudin said on Telegram.

"Power supply teams are already working to eliminate the malfunctions," he added.

Nearly 400 localities are without electricity in Ukraine due to "extremely difficult" weather conditions, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced.

This comes at a time when "a large part of our country is experiencing extremely difficult weather conditions," he added.

Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Oleksiy Kuleba warned that the weather was worsening with heavy snowfalls expected in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy and Odesa regions.

Fearing that global attention has shifted to the Israel-Hamas conflict, Ukraine has called on the West to supply more weapons to counter Moscow's forces as the winter settles in.

Saturday's large-scale attack on Ukraine, which affected central Kyiv areas, came the day Ukraine marked Holodomor the starvation of millions in Ukraine during the Stalin era.

It also came as Ukraine is marking 10 years since its pro-EU Maidan revolution.

Shortly after Ukrainians overthrew a Moscow-backed regime in 2014, Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula and backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Russia continues to see the Maidan revolution as illegitimate and when it launched its full-scale offensive in February last year, it aimed to install a different government in Ukraine.

"In Kyiv 10 years ago there was a coup with the use of force, the legitimate authorities were overthrown," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Sunday.

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Russia Says Downed Ukrainian Drones Over 5 Regions - The Moscow Times

Ukraine attacked Russian military targets with about 35 drones overnight on Nov. 26 in response to Russia's mass Shahed attack against Ukraine a day earlier, Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing a military intelligence source.

Ukraine's drones were aimed at targets in Moscow and its region, as well as in Tula and Smolensk. Russia claimed that it had shot down 24 Ukrainian drones.

According to Ukrainska Pravda's source, the attack is a signal to Russia that its strikes against civilians in Ukraine will be met with consequences.

"The war must be fought with the military in the war zones. Strikes on civilians and outside the war zone will not go unanswered," source said as cited by the media.

On the morning of Nov. 25, Russia struck Ukraine with 75 Shahed kamikaze drones, mainly targeting Kyiv. Ukrainian air defense reported bringing down 74 of them.

As a result of the six-hour attack, at least two people were injured and several residential and non-residential buildings were damaged across the capital.

Shaheds are an Iranian design cheap, simple, long-range kamikaze drones, which have steadily replaced missiles in Russia's mass strikes, especially after thousands of advanced missiles had been fired.

Both Russia and Ukraine produce and field their own takes on the design.

Russia launches record number of drones against Ukraine on Holodomor Memorial Day

Russia launched a record number of drones into Ukraine over the course of six hours on Holodomor Memorial Day on Nov. 25. According to the Kyiv City Military Administration, this was the largest drone attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

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Media: Ukraine retaliated against Russia's mass attack with 35-drone-strike - Kyiv Independent