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Russias military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the past five months in fighting against Ukraine, mostly in the Bakhmut region, the White House has estimated. National security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on US intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner group.

Russia unleashed a fresh missile attack on Ukraine in the east, killing two people, setting off huge blazes and damaging dozens of homes and other buildings in the city of Pavlohrad. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the two deaths in his video address on Monday night. Forty other people - women, children, men were treated for wounds and injuries, he said. Zelenskiy also said a 14-year-boy was killed near his school when it was hit by a bomb in the Chernihiv region, close to the Russian border.

An explosion in the western region of Bryansk bordering Ukraine derailed a Russian freight train on Monday, the local governor said in a social media post. An unidentified explosive device went off, as a result of which a locomotive of a freight train derailed, Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram, adding that there were no casualties reported. Russian authorities say the region, which borders Ukraine and Belarus, has seen multiple attacks by pro-Ukrainian sabotage groups in the 14 months since Russia invaded.

Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains quite difficult, a top Ukrainian general has said. However, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces, added: At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions. Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.

The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russias defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize Bakhmut. Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscows defence establishment over the conduct of Russias campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.

Since last summer Russia has built some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UKs Ministry of Defence said in its latest intelligence update.

Polands ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former childrens ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is within the framework of international law, with specific reference to Polands ambassador. Poland called on Russia to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention.

In Washington, House speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, criticising Russias killing of the children and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to repel the Russian invasion.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealands prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraines president said the pair discussed further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues and the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 433 of the invasion - The Guardian

KYIV, Ukraine Russia launched a broad pre-dawn aerial assault at targets across Ukraine on Monday, the second wide-ranging attack in four days, as fighting appeared to intensify ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Two people were killed and 40 wounded in Russian strikes on the central Ukrainian city of Pavlograd, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address.

For every such attack, the Russian invaders will receive our response, he said.

Serhiy Lysak, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which includes Pavlograd, said dozens of buildings, including schools and homes, were damaged in the strikes, which set off a massive fire that lit up the night sky.

The sounds of explosions also echoed above the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and other parts of the country before dawn as Ukrainian air defenses shot down 15 of 18 Russian cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian military. Mondays assault also included bombing runs by Russian aircraft, including one that killed a 14-year-old boy in the Chernihiv region, Mr. Zelensky said.

Herman Galushchenko, Ukraines energy minister, said the overnight strikes described by Russias Ministry of Defense as an attack on Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities had caused significant damage to power distribution networks in and around the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine, cutting off scores of people from the power grid.

The missile barrage came as Ukrainian forces have stepped up their own efforts to strike Russian targets behind the front lines before what is expected to be a significant counteroffensive in the near future, carried out with the support of newly delivered, powerful weapons from Western allies.

The Ukrainian military said on Monday evening that its aircraft had carried out four strikes on concentrations of Russian troops, while artillery and rockets had hit targets including an ammunition depot. Residents of the occupied southern city of Berdiansk reported overnight that a strike hit a Russian airfield, according to Ukrainian media and Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the exiled mayor of the nearby city of Mariupol. The claims could not be independently verified and the extent of any damage was unclear.

Russian-appointed officials in the occupied Crimean peninsula said air defenses had fended off a drone attack, two days after a drone was blamed for an explosion at an oil depot in Sevastopol, the home to the Russian Navys Black Sea Fleet. A spokeswoman for Ukraines southern military command previously said the depot fire was part of the preparations for a coming full-scale offensive.

Ukraines defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said in an appearance on national television on Monday that the military was reaching the finish line in those preparations. Military commanders, he said, would decide how, where and when the counteroffensive would be carried out.

Both sides have reported escalating attacks in recent days.

The governor of a Russian border region on Sunday accused Ukraine of cross-border shelling that killed four people, and on Monday two civilians were killed by shelling in Russian-held territory in the Zaporizhzhia region that occupation officials blamed on Ukraine, the Russian state news agency Tass reported.

After Ukrainian officials said Moscows forces hit an apartment block in central Ukraine on Friday, killing at least 23 people, regional authorities across the country reported a continued bombardment over the weekend. Over the course of 24 hours, regional officials in Ukraines north, east and south reported Russian artillery, mortar, rocket or drone strikes in 11 regions, killing at least three people and destroying more than a hundred residential buildings.

The flurry of strikes from both sides could signal the start of a shift in a conflict that has for months settled into a grinding war of attrition, with tens of thousands of soldiers killed and wounded in heavy fighting across eastern Ukraine but little territory being gained by either side.

But any coming Ukrainian counteroffensive will have to deal with Russian forces that have moved into defensive positions, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.

Britains defense intelligence agency said on Monday that Russian forces had constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. Those efforts, the agency said, include not only near the front lines but also deep inside areas Russia currently controls, with particular effort taken to fortify the northern border of Crimea.

In a Twitter post, the agency said the extensive network highlights Russian leaders deep concern that Ukraine could achieve a major breakthrough.

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White House Sets Russian Troop Losses at 100000 Over Last 5 ... - The New York Times

The Kremlin is likely preparing for Ukraines expected counteroffensive.

Russia unleashed an air barrage on Ukraine early Monday, the second all-out assault in about less than a week, which comes as Ukraine gears up for its spring counteroffensive.

Early Monday morning, Russia launched 18 Kh-101 and Kh-555 cruise missiles against Ukraine, though Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 15 of the 18, according to Ukrainian defense officials. At least 40 people, including five children, were wounded in Pavlograd, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, where officials said Russia struck dozens of buildings, including apartments and homes, schools, and shops. The attack followed a large-scale Russian strike on Friday where, in the city of Uman, at least 23 civilians, including six children, died after two cruise missiles struck an apartment building.

The attacks were the first major Russian precision aerial strikes across large swaths of Ukraine in many weeks. Last fall and winter, Russia unleashed a widespread air campaign against energy and civilian infrastructure, an effort to weaken Ukraine and deplete the morale of Ukrainian civilians. Moscow caused widespread damage but largely failed to achieve those objectives, and Kyivs Western backers responded by assisting Ukraine with Western air defense systems.

Russias renewed attacks are likely a sign that it is not just Kyiv but also Moscow that is preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, as Kyiv seeks to reclaim Russian-occupied territory.

Ukraine has, naturally, not publicly announced the start time of that campaign, but Ukrainian defense officials have indicated that theyre ready for it. Kyiv has also apparently stepped up attacks in Russian-controlled territory, including blowing up an oil depot in Crimea over the weekend. Russia initiated its latest strike after that explosion, but it has also been fortifying its defenses for months and it potentially seeks a more decisive victory before Kyiv goes on the attack.

The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the strikes Monday, saying it used high-precision, long-range air and sea-based weapons against the objects of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine. In the same Telegram post, the Ministry of Defense said it had achieved its goal, and that enterprises producing weapons and military equipment for Ukrainian forces were disrupted. The Guardian reports that railway infrastructure and an ammunition depot in southeastern Ukraine were potentially hit, though Ukrainian officials have not publicly confirmed. Civilian locations were also hit in the aerial attack on Monday, and officials also said strikes caused significant damage to power networks in Dnipro, in central Ukraine.

This destruction came after a relative lull in large-scale missile attacks. The timing likely has to do with Ukraines expected counteroffensive. Hanna Shelest, director of security programs at the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism and nonresident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said that, based on the actions Russia has taken in recent weeks, it is demonstrating the Russians are really preparing for the counteroffensive.

These recent attacks, she added, are potentially Russia testing out and mapping Ukraines air defense systems ahead of the planned counteroffensive.

In mid-April, Patriot air defense systems arrived in Ukraine, one from the US and the other gifted from Germany and the Netherlands, after Ukrainian forces received rapid training on the systems. Western governments had already provided Ukraine other Western-made defense systems, including the USs National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS).

But throughout the war, Ukraine has largely relied on old Soviet models, and stocks of the missiles used in those systems were running dangerously low, at least according to a February assessment in those leaked Pentagon documents. Western backers have provided additional air defense interceptors since, and now the Patriots have arrived. But Russia which itself may not have unlimited supplies of long-range, precision missiles may be trying to find vulnerabilities in Ukraines air defenses to exploit once Ukraine launches its offensive.

Russias aerial bombardment also came as Ukraine has made it pretty clear that it is preparing for its counteroffensive, including taking credit for a likely drone strike on a target in Russia-occupied Crimea, near where Russias Black Sea fleet is located. Though Ukraine has tended to avoid taking explicit responsibility for attacks behind lines of Russian control, a spokesperson for Ukraines southern command, Natalia Humeniuk, said the explosion was part of the broad, full-scale offensive that everyone expects. On Monday, an explosion derailed a freight train in Russia, in a region close to the Ukrainian border, though no one has claimed responsibility.

And fighting continues elsewhere along the front lines in Ukraine, specifically in Bakhmut, a battle in eastern Ukraine that has been raging for months. Both Ukraine and Russia have claimed to make gains in recent days.

On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the US estimates that Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties since December, including 20,000 killed an astounding figure, tied mostly to the months-long battle for Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, Russia relied on fighters from the private Wagner military group, using them as cannon fodder as they sought to take the city. Kirby did not confirm Ukrainian casualties, but it was a reminder of how brutal and bloody a battle Bakhmut has been and why both Ukraine and Russia might be eager for a symbolic win in combat that has exhausted troops on both sides.

That need for victory may be even more pronounced in Russia, after its winter counteroffensive failed, at least at present, to achieve more than minor territorial gains. As Shelest pointed out, Russia could use a win before Ukraine goes on the attack, and it may specifically may want one before May 9 Victory Day in Russia, which honors the countrys victory in World War II.

Though reports suggest it might be a scaled-down event, as the Kremlin has security concerns and maybe is a bit low on tanks to parade around, it is a significant day on the calendar, and one that Vladimir Putin will still likely mark in some fashion. Last year, Putin commemorated the day but avoided any huge declarations, despite some speculation that he might try to tie ramp up war efforts. But May 9 is here again, and it arrives alongside a potential new phase of war and that always comes with a degree of unpredictability.

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Russia carries out another major airstrike against Ukraine - Vox.com

A Ukrainian Humvee mired in bezdorizhzhia mud before the current war.

Every fall, Ukraine gets wetterand its not yet cold enough for the rain to freeze into ice. Every spring, as the winter ice melts, Ukraine again gets wetterand its not yet warm enough to dry out.

The result is two seasons of mud. Mud thats so deep and sticky that it renders thousands of miles of unpaved roadsto say nothing of forests and fieldsimpassable for vehicles. The Ukrainians call these muddy seasons bezdorizhzhia. That means roadlessness.

Bezdorizhzhia works against both armies in Russias wider war on Ukraine, but its a bigger problem for whichever army is trying to go on the attack while its muddy. Poor [cross-country mobility] typically provides some military advantage to defending forces, the U.K. defense ministry explained.

Right now, that means the mud favors Russian forces, which mostly have begun shifting to a defensive posture in anticipation of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The spring bezdorizhzhia tends to be worse than the fall bezdorizhzhia is. Spring is the nightmare season for fighting in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted. And this year, amid warmer weather across Europe, the spring bezdorizhzhia has persisted through late April. Prolonging the nightmare.

That might help to explain why Ukraine hasnt yet launched the main efforts we might associate with a counteroffensive.

Yes, there have been Ukrainian raids across the Dnipro River into Russian-held territory left of that wide river in southern Ukraine. And yes, Ukrainian officials claim their forces are beginning to push back against Russian assaults in the ruins of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraines Donbas region.

But we havent yet observed a major Ukrainian armored assault anywhere along the 600-mile front that stretches from the mouth of the Dnipro in southern Russian east toward Zaporizhzhia then northward up through Donbas to the Russian border near Kharkiv. An assault that might begin with a complex and risky effort to breach Russian fortifications.

A Ukrainian BTS-4 recovery vehicle.

The mud is so bad that even the vehicles that are supposed to recover other vehicles that get stuck themselves are getting stuck. A video that circulated online on social media on Saturday depicts a Ukrainian BTS-4 armored recovery vehicle practically glued to a forest track somewhere in Ukraine.

A BTS-4 is an old T-54/55 tank chassis with a front-mounted dozer blade and a 12-ton hydraulic crane in place of its turret. The Ukrainian army began the current, wider war with around 20 BTS-4s, at least 10 of which went through an extensive overhaul at the Lviv vehicle plant back in 2021.

ARVs such as the BTS-4 are essential for armies that fight on the move in difficult conditions. They winch out and unstick stuck vehicles; tow away damaged and immobilized vehicles so they can get repaired; and even support engineers breaching enemy defenses.

Its not for no reason that the U.S. Army has 1,200 M-88 recovery vehicles to support 2,700 active M-1 tanks. Thats slightly more than two tanks per ARV.

The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, had only around three dozen BREM-1, BREM-2, BREM-M, BREM-64 and BTS-4 ARVs when Russia widened its war on Ukraine 14 months ago. Thats 36 or so ARVs for a pre-war tank force with nearly a thousand T-64s, T-72s and T-80s. One recovery vehicle for every 25 tanks.

Donations from foreign allies have helped to grow the Ukrainian ARV fleet, as has a local effort to rebuild captured Russian T-62 tanks into improvised recovery vehicles. Its possible the Ukrainians have around 50 more ARVs than they started the wider war with.

Thats still too few ARVs by American standards. Too little recovery capacity to unstick an army that, for now, is stuck in the mud of the twice-a-year bezdorizhzhia season.

Especially as the ARVs themselves also are getting stuck. Until the ground dries a bit more and vehicles can move without high risk of miringor at least are recoverableit seems unlikely Ukraine will launch a major armored assault.

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Ukraine Is Really Muddy Right Now. It's A Risky Time For A ... - Forbes

In todays attack on Pavlohrad, in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, seven missiles were fired at the city, Serhii Lysak, the regions top official, said. Some were intercepted but others hit an industrial facility, sparking a fire, and a residential neighbourhood where 19 apartment buildings, 25 homes, six schools and five shops were damaged, he said. Missiles also hit three other areas in the region, damaging residential buildings and a school, he said.

Video posted on social media showed secondary detonations amid a significant blaze at the site of the strike, which came amid overnight missile launches against a number of Ukrainian cities by Russian strategic bombers. Among the buildings damaged or destroyed were an industrial zone, 19 apartment buildings and 25 homes, according to Mykola Lukashuk, the head of the Dnipro region council.

The Ukrainian military reported that air defence crews had destroyed 15 out of 18 missiles launched by Russian forces in the early hours of Monday morning with air raids sirens and air defence batteries audible in Kyiv and across the country.

Ukrainian counterattacks have ousted Russian forces from some positions in the besieged eastern city of Bakhmut, but the situation remains difficult, a top Ukrainian general has said. The situation is quite difficult, said Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of ground forces. At the same time, in certain parts of the city, the enemy was counterattacked by our units and left some positions. Syrskyi made the remarks while visiting frontline troops on Sunday, the military said.

The head of the Wagner private militia renewed his appeal to Russias defence ministry to increase ammunition shipments to his fighters trying to seize the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently clashed with Moscows defence establishment over the conduct of Russias campaign in Ukraine and what he says is insufficient support being provided to his Wagner soldiers. In a video posted on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin said he needs at least 300 tonnes of artillery shells a day for the assault, Reuters reported.

One person was killed and three others were injured by Russian shelling in the Kherson region over the past 24 hours, the regions administration said.

The governor of Chernihiv, Viacheslav Chaus, has reported the death of a child in Novhorod-Siverskyi after a mid-afternoon strike on the region.

Russian media reported on Monday what looks like two separate overnight incidents of sabotage within the Russian Federation. Alexander Bogomaz, governor of Bryansk, said a freight train was derailed as a result of an explosive device blowing up on railway tracks in the region. Aleksandr Drozdenko, governor of Leningrad region, claimed that a power transmission line support was blown up there. He wrote that an explosive device was also found on a second power pylon, but that electricity supplies had not been disrupted. Authorities in Russia say they are investigating both incidents.

Since last summer Russia has built some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades in the areas it controls in Ukraine as well as in its own border regions, the UKs Ministry of Defence has written in its latest intelligence update on the conflict.

Vladimir Rogov, chair of the We Are Together with Russia organisation that operates within the occupied Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, has posted to Telegram to claim that a man has been killed by his own improvised explosives in occupied Melitopol.

Polands ministry of foreign affairs has issued a statement condemning the former childrens ombudsman of Russia, Pavel Astakhov, for comments he made on Russian state TV that murdering ambassadors is within the framework of international law, with specific reference to Polands ambassador. Poland called on Russia to ensure the safety of all diplomats in accordance with the Vienna Convention.

In Washington, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy emphatically stressed his support for military aid to Ukraine on Monday, blistering Russias killing of the children and distancing himself from some in his party who oppose additional major US aid to stave off the Russian invasion. In Israel on his first trip abroad as speaker, McCarthy flatly rejected a suggestion at a news conference that he does not support sending military and financial aid to Ukraine and he amplified his positions on other issues back home, including his demand for debt limit negotiations with President Joe Biden.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has spoken to New Zealands prime minister, Chris Hipkins. Ukraines president said the pair discussed further cooperation on defence and humanitarian issues and the need for further consolidation of the countries of the Pacific region in supporting Ukraine.

The head of Russias Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has warned that an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive could turn into a tragedy for Russia, and complained that his fighters lacked ammunition, in an interview with pro-Kremlin war correspondent Semyon Pegov. Prigozhin, whose group is spearheading Russias attack on the embattled city of Bakhmut, predicted a Ukrainian counterattack in mid-May and said Wagner had only 10-15% of the shells that we need.

Pope Francis has said that the Vatican is involved in a peace mission to try to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I am willing to do everything that has to be done. There is a mission in course now but it is not yet public. When it is public, I will reveal it, Pope Francis told reporters during a flight home after a three-day visit to Hungary.

The Russian army replaced its highest ranking general in charge of logistics, after days of rumours about the sacking of Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev. In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said Alexei Kuzmenkov a former official from the National Guard had replaced Mizintsev as deputy defence minister of the Russian Federation, responsible for the logistical support of the Armed Forces. The statement did not say why Mizintsev was replaced after just seven months in the job.

Four people have been killed from an overnight Ukrainian strike on the Russian border village of Suzemka, the governor of Russias western Bryansk region said on Sunday. Two more civilians have been found and removed from the rubble. Unfortunately, both of them died, local governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Telegram.

With Reuters and AFP

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 432 of the invasion - The Guardian