Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

Ukraine war: Orthodox clerics say they will not leave Kyiv monastery – BBC

29 March 2023

Hundreds of worshippers attended a service at the monastery on Wednesday

Orthodox Christian clerics say they will stay at a historic monastery in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, despite a planned government-ordered eviction of hundreds of priests, monks and students.

The Pechersk Lavra is a seat of Ukraine's Orthodox Church (UOC), which split from the Moscow patriarchate after Russia's invasion last year.

But Ukrainian officials suspect some of the top clergy have maintained ties with the Church in Moscow, which they deny.

The UOC has been ordered to leave the site by the end of Wednesday.

The Ukrainian government, which owns the vast 11th Century monastery overlooking the Dnipro river, says the decision was taken after a commission discovered multiple violations of the tenancy agreement of the complex, a Unesco World Heritage Site.

Metropolitan Clement, head of the UOC press office, said there were "no legal grounds" for the expulsion, announced earlier this month.

"If the government forces us to do it illegally, it's called totalitarianism," he told the BBC. "We don't need such a state or government. We have the constitution and laws. We don't accept other methods."

The issue is also highly political. Ukrainian authorities accuse some UOC members of covertly supporting Moscow during the war, although some leaders have denounced the Russian invasion.

Last year, Ukraine's security service carried out a raid of the Lavra and other buildings belonging to the UOC, and dozens of clerics have been arrested on accusations of treason and collaboration with Russia. The UOC, however, says there is no evidence to support the charges.

On top of that, last year a criminal inquiry was opened after a video emerged of pro-Russian propaganda being sung, referring to the awakening of Mother Russia, while the head of a diocese in the Vinnytsia area of central Ukraine was charged with preparing leaflets supporting the invasion.

On Wednesday morning, hundreds of worshippers gathered outside the complex under a light snowfall to attend Mass. Like in recent days, police were inspecting cars entering and leaving the site, but the situation remained calm.

The expulsion has exposed divisions among the Ukrainian Orthodox community. In recent years, many have joined the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was granted independence in 2019, while millions still follow the UOC, which split from Moscow last May after centuries under its control.

Lubov Bank, a 60-year-old choir singer from the central city of Poltava, said she had been demonstrating at the Lavra for three days, and called the decision to expel the monastery's residents a "political decision". "They [the government] don't follow the constitution," she said. "Monks are real angels. I don't want the authorities to do this."

It is not clear what will happen if the UOC does not leave the complex, but the Ukrainian culture minister, Oleksandr Tkachenko, said the authorities would not use force to expel the monks.

The Russian Orthodox Church has echoed the rhetoric of the Kremlin in justifying the war in Ukraine. Its head, Patriarch Kirill, has suggested in sermons that Russia's war is a righteous one about the future of Christianity and failed to unequivocally condemn the killing of innocent people in Ukraine.

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Ukraine war: Orthodox clerics say they will not leave Kyiv monastery - BBC

‘This is like a movie’: Ukraine’s secret plan to convince 3 Russian pilots to defect with their planes – Yahoo News

Russian aircraft on display at the Kubinka military training ground in Moscow. (Pavel Pavlov/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

At first, the Russian pilots all thought it was a scam. But they agreed to go along with it anyway, especially after the initial payments came through.

Last summer, a group of Ukrainian volunteers, working closely with their countrys intelligence service, apparently came close to persuading three Russian aviators who were in the midst of bombing Ukraine to defect with their warplanes in exchange for $1 million a piece. It was a bold, months-long operation, like a movie, in the words of one of the Russian marks, a trio of exceptionally well-trained airmen who seemed amenable to betraying their motherland for a sum of money theyd otherwise never see in their lifetimes.

What looked like a legitimate plan to switch sides proved anything but. None of the pilots defected in the end. There is strong evidence that most if not all of them were found out by Russias Federal Security Service (FSB), one of the successor agencies to the Soviet KGB. Russian propaganda says the whole saga was in fact orchestrated by the FSB from the start. The Ukrainians insist the FSB only got involved late in the negotiations, after sincere commitments were made by each pilot. Kyiv also maintains its failure to acquire Russian warplanes was nonetheless a mitigated success: It gleaned valuable technical information about Russias air force and compromised three military officers, at least one of whom has not flown combat missions since. A complex intelligence operation thus devolved into a remote game of dueling counterintelligence narratives with both sides claiming victory.

Various types of Russian military aircraft fly over Red Square in Moscow in preparation for the World War II Victory Parade, May 4, 2022.(Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images)

Yahoo News met the main Ukrainian volunteer here called Bohdan to protect his identity who conceived and initiated this elaborate scheme to hijack Russian warplanes. We examined hundreds of encrypted chat messages between his team and the three Russian pilots: Igor Tveritin, 48, Roman Nosenko, 36, and Andrei Maslov, 33. Their identities were independently confirmed by Yahoo News, but its not clear where they are currently located and could not be reached for comment.

The remarkable level of detail provided by Bohdan both undermines the Russian recast of the events while also giving a rare window into how these behind-the-scenes, spy-vs.-spy operations unfold as Russian and Ukrainian forces batter each other on the frontlines.

We gave these Russian pilots a chance to make the right choice and stop bombing civilians, Bohdan told Yahoo News. Even if they were intercepted by the FSB at some stage, we managed to eliminate all three war criminals without getting up from the table.

In each case, the plan was risky but straightforward: The pilot would fly his multimillion-dollar aircraft into Ukrainian airspace, where it would be met by Ukrainian interceptors and escorted safely to a designated landing strip. One offered to drug his own navigator preflight. Another proposed reporting nonexistent technical malfunctions to hoodwink his co-pilot and Central Command. Ukraine would not only grant all of defectors full amnesty but outfit them with new passports, as well as ones for chosen members of their families, with whom theyd be comfortably resettled somewhere in Europe.

The plot was reminiscent of the Cold War case of Viktor Belenko, a Soviet pilot who in 1976 defected with his MiG-25 from Russia's far east to Japan. Then-CIA Director George H.W. Bush hailed the plane acquisition as a major intelligence bonanza.

An unexploded bomb in front of a destroyed building in Mariupol, Ukraine, on June 2, 2022. (AFP via Getty Images)

The Ukrainian volunteers say the operation still ranks as a modest achievement for Kyiv. Tveritin, Bohdan claimed, is now grounded, based on call data from the last quarter of 2022. All three pilots also provided valuable Russian military secrets in the course of establishing their bona fides, including sharing images and recordings of the cockpits and instrument panels in their cutting-edge planes Su-34s, Su-24s, and Tu-22M3s as well as details of their air bases. And all it cost the Ukrainians was a few thousand dollars and a lot of patience.

A civilian with a background in the IT industry, Bohdan recently met with Yahoo News at a hotel lounge in downtown Manhattan. He explained that he and his colleagues were motivated to approach the Russian pilots by a law signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in April 2022, according to which his government would generously compensate any Russian who voluntarily gave up the Kremlins military hardware. Fighter jets, bombers and fixed-wing attack aircraft were worth $1 million; helicopters were worth $500,000. Bohdan said he and his team spent their own money on the operation and never asked the Ukrainian government to reimburse them even though, at advanced stages, Ukraines domestic security service (SBU) got involved; so did Kyivs Special Operations Forces (SSO), which guided the logistics how to get the Russians to Ukrainian territory.

A third party involved in the operation shared with Yahoo News extensiveencrypted WhatsApp and Signal chats he had with Tveritin, Nosenko and Maslov, from late March to July of last year, as well as the documentary evidence they provided of themselves and their aircraft. All three pilots Bohdan found using open-source methods. Initially, I managed to acquire the database of the pilots who fought in Syria, he said. In this database, I saw the details, including who was the flight commander, who was the navigation officer. I was able to structure it in a way to identify whom to contact. There was no contact information in this database, so I had to perform additional research through paid services to understand well, de-anonymize and identify each person.

Tveritin Igor Yurievich (Vesti 24 via informnapalm.org)

Igor Tveritin, the oldest pilot, married with three children, was born in Melitopol, Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. His skillset is by far the most sophisticated, as Tveritin was originally trained to fly the Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bomber, a supersonic aircraft capable of launching nuclear missiles, akin to the American-made Rockwell B-1 Lancer.

When Bohdan first made contact with him, at the end of March 2022, Tveritin was based at Engels Air Base a bomber air base that was struck twice by Ukrainian drones in December despite being far from the frontlines. In fact, he can be seen standing in front of his then-bomber, the Valery Chkalov(named after a famous Soviet test pilot), in a video recorded by Russian news outlet Vesti in 2013. Tveritin told reporters that firing a missile is the main dream of a military pilot, we all aspire to this. The Valery Chkalov was known for also firing cruises at rebel targets in Syria as of 2015, the year Russia directly intervened in that countrys civil war on behalf of dictator Bashar Assad. At some point, Tveritin was reassigned to fly missions in a Tu-22M3 strike bomber in Ukraine.

I dont want to die, Tveritin texted Bohdan in Russian on April 29. I am a realist, no one knows how things will work out. I agree to your conditions, but let there be two transfers of $7,000. That makes me calmer.

On May 1, Bohdan asked him to confirm his identity and location by making a five-second video of the aircraft with a slip of paper with number 377 in the background or written on your hand. Tveritin obliged.

A Tu-95 strategic bomber from the Russian air force prepares to take off from an air base near the Volga River. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

Bohdan used a crypto exchange to anonymously wire the funds to a Russian Sberbank account. Once Tveritin collected that money, hed be on the hook to the Ukrainians. He only grew more nervous as they steadily worked through the logistics of how, where and when the pilot would defect and how hed somehow get his wife and children safely out of Russia.

Tveritin was especially worried about his family, and asked for an advance of $50,000 5% of the $1 million for his airframe. He also stated that it would arouse suspicions if he removed three young children from school at the same time, especially as the whole family was living on a military base where we are all boiled in the same pan, all is transparent.

Bohdan told Tveritin that Ukraine was ready to make arrangements to get Tveritins family out, which would precede his own defection. A problem for them, as for all three pilots and their relatives, was the lack of passports allowing for international travel, leading to circuitous escape proposals. First, theyd have to go to either Armenia or Belarus, both of which accept Russian internal passports. Once there, theyd receive new documents, obtained for them by the Ukrainians, to enable travel to one of the Baltic states.

Belarusian guards in the Brest region of Belarus, near the border with Ukraine. (Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images)

I dont know how safe your method is, Tveritin told Bohdan on May 20. Please, understand my concern. If they leave Belarus with their documents, they will notice in Russia that they crossed the border. I dont want to have the same story as Skripal, he added, referring to the Russian double agent who was poisoned in England by assassins of the GRU, Russias military intelligence agency. I need documents with different names and surnames and entrance records to Belarus. This is a matter of principle for me.

Bohdan countered that changing everyones names would be riskier than getting them valid passports under their real names. Tveritin said he preferred to resettle in Germany.

Bohdan also promised to open a bank account in Tveritins wifes name and deposit $150,000 before the family made it to Belarus.

Another outstanding issue was how, where and when Tveritin would fly to Ukraine. He was understandably afraid of not only being interdicted by his Russian comrades but of being shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems, which would mistake his plane for an incoming enemy. Tveritin planned to fly at a very low altitude to avoid being shot down by either sides air defense systems.

A Russian Tu-22M3 bomber. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)

A big wrinkle was that Tveritin would be apprised of his flight mission only a day before it was set to take place, and given his takeoff time only three to five hours in advance.

Tveritin bristled when Bohdans group gave a landing approach in Kharkiv, the region in northeast Ukraine where some of the heaviest fighting was taking place at the time.

When you approach Kharkiv, you will be intercepted and escorted by our two fighters and you will keep communicating with them via a certain frequency, Bohdan wrote.

Are you serious about Kharkiv? the pilot shot back. Kharkiv is almost surrounded. Apart from the concentration of all kinds of air defense there. The sky in that area is densely protected and pushing an aircraft to fly there will be suicide! So Bohdan proposed an alternate route.

By late May there was another snag one that Bohdan believes was decisive in the scuttling of the operation. Ukraines defenders in the port city of Mariupol had finally surrendered their last position, meaning the city was now fully under Russian control. Tveritin made it clear that he was one of the Russian bombers routinely pulverizing Mariupol in the weeks and months prior. The situation has become difficult for me, he wrote Bohdan on May 23. Your people surrendered Azovstal and we stopped flying there. Now we fly less, towards Odesa and Mikolaiv, well to the west of Mariupol.

Rescuers sifting through the debris of buildings destroyed following the bombardment of Kharkiv, April 16, 2022. (Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images)

A new flight and final plan was introduced in which Tveritin would approach from Russian-occupied Crimea, headed toward southwestern Ukraine.

Still another matter to be resolved was what to do with Tveritins crew. His 130-feet-long Tu-22M3 has a pilot, a co-pilot and two technicians. Tveritin planned to report errors in his instruments, confusing all three, then dip into a low altitude, shouting at his crew, if they objected, that all systems were still functioning normally. While his young co-pilot was still discombobulated, Tveritin would change course and blame it on a faulty flight navigation instrument. By the time anyone was the wiser, Ukrainian planes would have intercepted their bomber, escorting it down.

Soon it became clear that Tveritin was no longer keen on the plan or rather, he appeared a little too keen. This combat aircraft will not help you much, he messaged Bohdan. You do not have pilots of that sort. Thats why I am your only hope. Only I can lift this bird into the air. Tveritin seemed to be suggesting that he be seconded into Ukraines air force and fly missions against his former compatriots. That hint, especially from someone so concerned for his safety and that of his family, suggested to the Ukrainians that the pilot may have been discovered by FSB and now communicating under their control.

This is when we began to suspect they were playing him back to us in a double cross, Bohdan told Yahoo News.

From there on, Tveritins chatter fizzled out. And then he was gone.

Sukhoi Su-24 bombers at the International Army Games 2017 outside Tyumen, Russia. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)

Bohdan first made contact with Andrei Maslov, based in Lipetsk, western Russia, on May 4, 2022. A pilot of a Su-24 tactical bomber, Maslov and his navigator Igor Kupchinsky had won a bronze medal during a military aviation competition in Russian-occupied Crimea.

When first approached, Maslov appeared to suspect that Bohdan was himself an undercover FSB officer looking to entrap him. He refused to accept a wire transfer via crypto exchange and said hed only take cash dollars or euros only delivered to him by hand. I am sure handing over cash is not a problem for you, Maslov told Bohdan.

Bohdan arranged for a courier to deliver $4,000 in cash to Maslov at a train station. There will be two girls. The password is: From Maxim, Bohdan wrote. One girl will be with a cap and a bright T-shirt. The second is shorter ... in blue jeans and a khaki jacket. The girls will ask for the last digits of a phone number: 2200.

Maslov agreed to meet and said hed be wearing a blue military jacket and blue summer pants.

Maslov would defect with his Su-24 and a woman, but not his wife. (Yahoo News is declining to identify the pilots friends or family members out of an abundance of caution.)

My wife is out of the question, said Maslov. Its a complicated relationship. I am planning to depart with another woman but have not discussed moving with her yet.

A Ukrainian Su-24 bomber lands during an air force exercise at Starokostyantyniv military airbase. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)

Yahoo News was able to confirm the identity of this other woman as a 28-year-old pediatric fitness instructor specializing in, among other things, childrens yoga. In order to get her an international passport, Bohdan asked for her internal one. It was shortly thereafter he realized Maslov was burnt even before Bohdan approached him. For one thing, she was way too attractive for this guy, Bohdan told Yahoo News. She looked like she belonged with an oligarch. For another, Bohdan and his team found her on Instagram: She had been in Turkey in 2021, proving she did indeed have an international passport up until recently. Further investigative digging found her still-valid passport was reported destroyed at around the time Bohdan started communicating with Maslov.

In mid-June, Bohdan messaged Maslov: We have started the process of submitting documents in order to get a travel passport for your girlfriend and the base is informing us that she already possesses a valid travel passport. How would you explain this situation, Andrei?

Andrei couldnt. He said hed get to the bottom of it.

I have checked, he responded shortly thereafter. There was a passport, but her ex-boyfriend destroyed it.

Andrei, Bohdan wrote back, are you sure you trust her entirely and there is no risk of information leakage? Otherwise, this fact may jeopardize our implementation.

I absolutely trust her, Maslov replied. I have not provided details to her. She only knows that we are going to travel abroad together. She is an orphan. She does not ask too many questions. She trusts me.

Bohdan said his side obtained her call data and found that she had repeatedly communicated with an officer from FSBs counterintelligence department. We also found out all her girlfriends were hookers called by the FSB for their special projects. Moreover, she had been in Barcelona during the time of the Catalan referendum in 2017. One wonders what, or who, she was doing there.

Maslov continued to talk to the Ukrainians off and on from that point, but it was now obvious to the latter that hed never pull the trigger. Then he too disappeared.

The Sukhoi Su-24M is a supersonic, all-weather attack aircraft of the Russian air force. (aviation-images.com/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

One of the most intense conversations we had was with Roman Nosenko, Bohdan said. He was the toughest.

I will move my family, Nosenko wrote on April 30, but what will happen to it there if this is not a joke. ... The money is huge, it looks like a scam. What are the guarantees that I will not be scammed? F***, this is like a movie.

Nosenko confirmed to Bohdan that he flew the Su-34 Fullback and the Su-24 Fencer bombers, both of which have two-man crews. When asked to provide proof in exchange for $2,000, Nosenko shared images of hisFencer. As requested, he held up to the camera, in front of the plane, a piece of paper with the number 339 written on it.

Nosenko said that he had little information on his targets claiming: We carry the payload to a point. After that it does its own thing. They dont give us the details. This suggests they were using standoff munitions of some kind, possibly Kh-59 cruise missiles or Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles. As with Tveritin, Nosenko stated that his operational plans are not shared with him in advance. The direction we fly in cannot be predicted, its always different. It gets known only at the last moment.

Nosenko also admitted to not feeling particularly patriotic about Russias invasion of Ukraine. I dont need this war either! he messaged.

Before we continued with the next phase of the operation, Bohdan told Yahoo News, we started asking Nosenko a lot of technical questions that were important for the Ukrainian intelligence such as how many types of aircraft are in his unit, how often they go on flight missions, and what regions they fly to in Ukraine. He gave us the names of commanders of different units we double-checked all the info, and it all checked out.

Russian aircraft in formation over St. Basil's Cathedral during the rehearsal for the Victory Day parade in Moscow, May 4, 2019. (Tatyana Makeyeva/Reuters)

His defection plan was similar to Tveritins: Hed drop to an extremely low altitude upon approach, switch to a secure communications channel with Ukrainian interlocutors and land safely in a designated airfield.

Nosenko agreed to leave Russian-controlled airspace, fly over my troops at high altitude and then start descending over the frontline. Nosenkos biggest fear was Ukrainian air defenses. Ive heard they are handsomely paid for shot-down planes, he wrote. I would be more confident if I knew at least the areas of their deployment in order to confidently go around them and start maneuvering on time.

As Nosenko had only one other person in the cockpit with him, his navigator, he decided it would be easiest to tranquilize him by drugging his coffee before they took off. He mulled the sedative he wanted to use. I cannot buy it without a prescription, Nosenko lamented. With the wrong dosage, one can end up with a stroke.

Whereas Tveritin had too many family members to exfiltrate from Russia, Nosenko had just one: his wife. Her escape wouldnt be easy under any circumstances because she is a military psychologist and therefore also a member of Russias armed forces. Yahoo News was able to establish that Nosenkos wife was attached, as of 2020, to a military unit in Morozovsk, in the Rostov region, home of Russias 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment, which operates the same model aircraft as her husbands: Su-24s and Su-34s. In fact, Nosenko claimed he and his wife were in the same unit. We even uncovered photos of her conducting team-building exercises with soldiers at the military base in Morozovsk.

Belarusian border guards patrol the crossing point between Belarus and Ukraine in the Brest region, Feb. 15. (Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images)

The same route was proposed for her travel as for Tveritins wife and children: Shed leave Russia and go to either Armenia or Belarus, acquire a new passport there, and then proceed to one of the Baltic states. I dont know about the wife, Nosenko messaged Bohdan on May 11. Its hard. She would have to defect from the Kremlins military too.

After a 24-48 hour period in Belarus she will receive a European permit for residence in one of the Baltic states, Bohdan wrote. Upon her arrival she similarly will have a rented apartment and all amenities at her disposal. She will confirm to you the availability of money on her bank account, and only after that you will be taking off.

Nosenko turned over their personal documents to Bohdan, including their internal passports, which allow for travel only in Russian Federation territory and countries with no visa requirements. Still, he was nervous. I have already said that I will allow her to go only when the documents are ready and I am sure about everything, Nosenko wrote Bohdan. It is not a kitten I am sending you, he wrote, referring to his wife.

Yet somehow Nosenko persuaded her to fly to the Belarus capital of Minsk in exchange for another installment of $4,000 to cover travel and expenses. Bohdan promised Nosenko that upon her arrival, a bank account in her name would be opened with $150,000 on deposit.

By June 24, the wife was indeed in Minsk and had been there for about three days. If nothing changes, she will fly tomorrow to Moscow. Still no money has arrived on the card, Nosenko wrote Bohdan.

The same day, Bohdan messaged Nosenko back. We trust you, he wrote, but we have one question regarding your wife. The number you gave us for her is not her main number. So now, we can see that she had calls with an FSB man, Yevgeny Kashlach.

Bohdans team, which by now consisted of Ukrainian intelligence officers, had acquired her phone records and determined she had recently rung a Russian security officer.

Residents of the Belarusian capital of Minsk. (Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images)

At that moment we talked with Roman and told him directly that his wife has been talking to counterintelligence, Bohdan told Yahoo News. We said we cannot continue for now because we have questions, and then he agreed to talk to his wife.

A military psychologist might understandably talk to FSB officers attached to military counterintelligence as part of their day-to-day work requirements. But the fear was she might be dropping a dime on her husbands plan to defect with one of Russias prized bombers. It was 50-50 she was either doing her job or ratting him out, Bohdan explained.

It was about a month into his conversation with Nosenko, who, assuming his offer to defect was originally legitimate, was by now too far deep into the operation to claim innocence. He understood that we could record him. He understood that he had provided information. And he understood that he already could go one way only. But his wife was in a different situation. She was still clean at the time.

It remains unclear if Nosenkos wife informed on her husband, persuaded him to turn himself in or if one or both spouses had been working for the FSB from the beginning. Bohdan believes that by the time she went to Minsk, she was under surveillance, if not being controlled by the Russian security service. They clearly wanted to see who would come to Belarus and with what kind of documents, Bohdan told Yahoo News. When no one turned up because we suspected her, the FSB cottoned on to what was happening and terminated the operation.

Then they preemptively claimed success.

Police and the Russian National Guard patrol Red Square in Moscow. (Alexander Nemenov /AFP via Getty Images)

Success for the FSB took the form of Russia firing missiles at Ukrainian airfields, whose locations, it later claimed, were only disclosed by Bohdan and his team. In reality, those air fields had already been bombed since the start of Moscows invasion.

Russian state media publicly joined the fray. The news channel RT channel ran a 10-minute segment on what it depicted as an elaborate sting operation from the get-go and an unmitigated failure for Ukraine. RT claimed to interview two of the pilots, neither of whom can be identified from the footage (one wore a face-obscuring helmet on camera, the other had only the back of his head filmed). They did produce some of the messages Bohdans team had with the pilots, along with audio recordings of phone calls.

More compellingly, RT exhibited surveillance footage of the two women sent to hand-deliver Maslovs $4,000. They also claim to have arrested an unnamed man who hired them. This could mean Maslov was himself working for the FSB from the beginning or that he was being monitored, Bohdan told Yahoo News.

We may never know what happened to Tveritin, Maslov and Nosenko. Bohdan insists Tveritin is not currently flying sorties in Ukraine a claim Yahoo News cannot independently verify but cant be sure about Maslov and Nosenko. If they were working with the FSB from the get-go, then they may well be decorated heroes. If they were unmasked midway through genuine plans to defect, there is almost no chance any of them would ever set foot in the cockpit of a Russian fighter jet again. Theyd be imprisoned or killed for treason.

If this saga signifies anything, it is that war doesnt just make orphans, widows and corpses; it furnishes opportunities premised on self-interest. Russia is notoriously corrupt, and it is plausible that three Russian pilots, more interested in self-enrichment than in conquering their next-door neighbor, set out to make a pile of cash at great risk to themselves and their families then were exploited by Russian intelligence to try to and catch the very same Ukrainians who made them an offer they couldnt refuse.

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'This is like a movie': Ukraine's secret plan to convince 3 Russian pilots to defect with their planes - Yahoo News

Why the alarm over Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine is … – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Early in March, news outlets reported that almost a year after Russia first used Kinzhal (Kh-47M2) hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, Moscow had used six more of its hypersonic weapons as part of a particularly severe attack that also included Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, and Iranian Shahed drones. Of note, Ukraines theater missile defense could not prevent the six Kinzhal missilesamong many of the other missile variantsfrom getting to their targets. The missile fusillade ultimately caused at least nine civilian deaths.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this attack led to a substantial increase in reporting about hypersonics, with coverage from the BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and NPR among other outlets. The alarmism captured in this reporting indicates the broader misunderstanding concerning the characteristics of hypersonic weapons that matter in both the Ukraine context and (as I wrote earlier in the Bulletin) the broader strategic context involving Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.

This alarmism has two strands.

The first concerns the ability of the Kinzhal missile to evade Ukraines air defenses. This is driven by its speedaccording to CSIS, the Kinzhal rapidly accelerates to Mach 4 (4,900 kilometers per hour) and can travel as fast as Mach 10 (12,350 km/hr)and its maneuverability. Regardless of the speed and maneuverability of Russian missiles, the ability of hypersonic and non-hypersonic missiles to make it through air defenses should be unsurprising. In the best case, of course, Ukrainian air defenses would prevent all missile attacks to make it to their target, but missile defenseeven at the theater levelremains a difficult technical challenge to conquer. The general ineffectiveness of missile defense technology is not intrinsic to the hypersonic-ness of some of Russias missile systems.

Moreover, Russias decision to throw one of its most advanced weapon systems at targets in Ukraine when other, cheaper, more vanilla capabilities would appear to be sufficient seems a strategic misstepmaking some observers wonder why Moscow took this particular decision.

The second strand of alarmism pertains to the perceived imbalance in hypersonic capabilities between the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the otherexacerbated perhaps by the apparently close ties between Moscow and Beijing.

Robyn Dixon and David Sterns reporting in the Washington Post is indicative of this concern, noting, Globally, Russias use of the hypersonic missilesKinzhal means dagger in Russianrenewed alarm over the Kremlins sophisticated arsenal, and it highlighted that Putin possesses difficult-to-intercept, nuclear-capable weapons that the United States and its allies do not yet have.

The alarm is misplaced.

The notion that the United States is behind in the hypersonic weapon arms race is off-base because it fails to consider the varying strategic challenges posed by the current distribution of military capabilities among the United States and its near-peer adversaries.

Indeed, the proposed application of hypersonic weapons by the United States focuses on its conventional rather than nuclear use. As a consequence, the requirements for the weapon systemin terms of its accuracy, for exampleare entirely different from those that Russia and China are developing, and, thus, you can expect that their relative technology readiness levels might be different. This is reflected both in the diverging test schedules of hypersonic capabilities and deployment timelines across all three countries.

But perhaps most important is the very different strategic pictures that Washington, Moscow, and Beijing face. Bearing in mind that the primary characteristic of a hypersonic weapon system germane to strategic competition is its maneuverability, which enables it to evade missile defenses, Russia and Chinas deployment is perhaps unsurprising given Washingtons focus on developing strategic missile defense (ostensibly focused on North Korea and Iran). If nothing else, the capability represents a hedge against US strategic missile defense systems reaching maturity.

Russia and China do not have a reciprocal focus on missile defense, so there is little that hypersonic weapons would add to the US militarys toolkit that is not already supplied by existing capability. The existing nuclear triad of the United States holds its adversaries at risk, with or without hypersonic delivery vehicles; Russias capabilities, with or without its hypersonic capabilities, do the same. Indeed, if speed is the characteristic of interest, then ballistic missiles can reach speeds significantly greater than those of hypersonic weapons. At the margins, research and development spending focused on the latest materials science challenges is appropriate, but hypersonics rhetoric reminiscent of the 1950s missile gap is unhelpful.

Clearly, there is something about the hypersonic moniker that draws the journalist, the policy-maker, and probably the laboratory scientist, but it serves us to be clear about what the characteristics of these weapon systems are and how they either alter the status quo or do not. In terms of the broader dynamics of strategic competition, these capabilities still do not appear to move the needleand particularly not if the recent use in Ukraine is representative of the broader use case.

Rather than focusing on matching capabilities and engaging in arms-racing behavior, both analysts and policy-makers ought to focus on the consequences for strategic stability of Moscow and Beijing developing these technologies. For example, there are good reasons to think that future variants of hypersonic weapons might evade existing early warning systemsreducing still further the already limited amount of time that civilian leaders have to order a second strike.

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Why the alarm over Russia's use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine is ... - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

is American isolationism bad in Russia-Ukraine war? | Opinion – Deseret News

Foreign affairs related to Russia and China have become hot topics in Utah. Russias war against Ukraine has divided Republicans nationally and provoked different levels of concern within Utahs congressional delegation. Meanwhile, a recent Associated Press story about Utahs ties to China has raised eyebrows. Were not experts on these matters, but that never slows us down.

The far right and the far left are strangely united in opposing American assistance to Ukraine. When these extremes agree, should we be skeptical or take seriously their opinions?

Pignanelli: Isolationism never was and never will be an acceptable response to tyrannical governments with an expansionist intent. Ronald Reagan

The amazing legacy about isolationism is the stunning consistency of the policy it is always wrong. Leaders of the movement over the centuries possessed an incredible ability to ignore the weight of history.

Former PresidentDonald Trump, Gov.Ron DeSantisand other Republicans are splitting from others inside the GOP tent who support aid to Ukraine. PresidentJoseph Bidensupports arming Ukraine but bungles his messaging, thereby aiding opponents. It is both frustrating and frightening that leading national politicians do not understand history and what is at stake.

America is not the worlds policeman to insert itself into never-ending scrapes. But on occasion, political realities demand engagement. Unfortunately, prior isolationism caused the nation to commit grave mistakes that cost lives and treasure. When our enemies sense weakness in military preparedness and presidents, they always strike in some fashion. This is especially acute when a president believes a personal relationship with a tyrant will prevent ill will.

Global foes are watching the action in Ukraine. The U.S. is more than just aiding a small democracy, we are sending a message of strength. History documents unequivocally if we falter, a bloodier and expensive conflict awaits us.

Isolationists enjoy the benefit of emotion, but realists possess facts. Our future depends on the latter prevailing.

Webb: I cant understand the opposition to arming and supporting Ukraine as it fights off the Russian invasion and suffers Russias war crime atrocities. I believe the isolationists are damaging Americas interests and making a bigger, broader war in Europe more likely. Theyre also emboldening China as it threatens Taiwan.

Vladimir Putinclearly wants to reunite the old Soviet Union by any means necessary, including invasion and subjugation. Ukraine is the first domino. If he conquers Ukraine and sees weakness and timidity in the U.S. and our NATO allies, we really could end up in a hot shooting war because we are fully committed to defend NATO countries as though America itself were being attacked.

It makes great sense to help Ukraine stop Russias imperialistic schemes cold and prevent a broader war. Providing potent weapons and funding to end the war quickly is an excellent investment that will save money and resources in the long term. It makes no sense to allow the war to drag out. Get Ukraine the weaponry it needs and get it over with. Obviously, we should not put boots on the ground, and Im not advocating an open checkbook.

Helping Ukraine thwart a Russian takeover also sends a clear message to China, making it less likely to invade Taiwan.

Sen.Mitt Romneyis strongly committed to supporting Ukraine. The rest of the delegation should be as well.

The Associated Press story outlined many examples of Utah/China connections. Were some Utah leaders nave to be friendly with the communist nation?

Pignanelli: Utahns are decent and do not hate the people of another country just because our governments have differences. Implications that Utah officials are traitorous is ridiculous.

Webb: Lets put this in a little perspective. It wasnt long ago that friendly U.S./China relations were considered highly desirable. China was viewed as an enormous market for U.S. goods and services. Businesses were encouraged to develop relationships.

The conventional wisdom was that the more interaction we had with China, culturally and commercially, the more likely China would liberalize and become more like Western countries.

That didnt happen, of course. China is now Americas biggest adversary, both militarily and commercially.

I believe Utah leaders interaction with China was done with the best of intentions. In retrospect, it does look rather nave. But we didnt know how truly malign Chinas leadership was until we saw the crackdown on Hong Kong, the threatening of Taiwan and the extent of Uyghur persecution.

Will these foreign affairs matters become big issues and make a difference in the 2024 elections?

Pignanelli: The isolationist faction inside GOP ranks is increasing while conservative cable news commentators are agitating against American involvement in Ukraine. This emotion is percolating among many delegates which could drive election rhetoric.

Yet, I was heartened by legislators sporting the Ukraine flag on their lapels during the session. Most Republicans possess a clearheaded understanding of global politics that could be tapped by officials supporting Ukraine. Delegates may force incumbents into uncomfortable positions unless they craft a compelling message as to why this is important and not just an isolated tribal fight.

Webb: This is extremely important. Personally, I wont vote for isolationist candidates, including those who dont want to help Ukraine.

Republican LaVarr Webb is a former journalist and a semiretired small farmer and political consultant. Email: lwebb@exoro.com. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah state Legislature. Email:frankp@xmission.com.

Originally posted here:
is American isolationism bad in Russia-Ukraine war? | Opinion - Deseret News

US deals Ukraine playing cards to avoid friendly fire – Asia Times

NATO members and other western countries are stepping up their supply of weapons to Ukraine. The UK recently pledged to send 14 Challenger 2 tanks, while the US has promised 31 Abrams tanks, and is sending older models to get them to the battlefield as soon as possible. Germany has dispatched 14 of its renowned Leopard 2 tanks.

Other nations have or are in the process of sending anti-tank and anti-air systems, artillery pieces, drones and tanks. These modern sophisticated weapons will be key to the success of Ukraines spring counter-offensive which is believed to be poised to begin.

But providing all this different equipment made in different countries brings its own challenges. Ukrainian troops need to learn how to operate the new equipment and they will need supplies and replacement parts. And troops fighting on the ground will need to learn how to tell them apart in a confusing and fast-paced environment.

To try to overcome the challenge of identification, the US government has issued a deck of playing cards with pictures of various different pieces of hardware to help try to minimize friendly fire incidents.

According to a report in the New York Times, the deck has images of 52 different NATO-made tanks, armored personnel carriers, trucks, artillery pieces and other weapons systems. Major Andrew Harshbarger, of the US Armys training and doctrine command, said the idea was to enable soldiers to quickly identify enemy equipment and distinguish the equipment from friendly forces.

Both sides have been plagued by the problem of friendly fire. In December, Russian news agency Tass reported that Ukrainian army units shelled each others positions in a battle at Kremennaya, in the east Ukrainian region of Luhansk.

Ukrainian sources, meanwhile, have reported several friendly fire incidents involving Russian units attacking each other. These include, according to a report late last year from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) Russias air defense systems engaging their own aircraft.

While the ID card system will undoubtedly help Ukrainian forces from destroying new equipment sent by its allies, it will not prevent this entirely. Battlefields are fast-moving and confusing environments where decisions have to be made in split seconds often with very little corroboratory information.

An additional problem that may make the battlefield a more dangerous place is that communications between equipment from different suppliers are not always possible. This adds to the problem of telling friend from foe in the heat of battle.

The problems of identification on the battlefield and resultant friendly fire incidents are nothing new on the battlefield. In the 19th century, armies wore brightly colored uniforms in order to be seen through the smoke that was generated by the heavy musket and cannon fire that characterized warfare at this time.

Even with the improved radio communications of the second world war, there were often friendly fire incidents, particularly when ground attacks were conducted by aircraft. The relatively fluid and fast-moving battlefield, particularly in northwest Europe after D-Day in June 1944, led to many accidental attacks on friendly forces.

One of the most famous of these was the attack by US Army Air Forces on Saint-L in July 1944. Many of the US heavy bombers used dropped their payloads short of the German lines, killing more than 100 US troops, including General Lesley J. McNair at that stage the most senior US officer to be killed in combat in the war.

Friendly fire incidents can be devastating for morale in the field. When they are deployed, armed forces fully expect to be targeted by the enemy but they expect support from their own forces. So when they are bombarded by their own artillery or bombers, it can cause a collapse in fighting spirit.

And troops that survive friendly fire incidents are often left with a serious mistrust of whichever of the services the air force, for example, or artillery groups that had mistakenly attacked them instead of supporting them. This was particularly a problem during Americas involvement in the Vietnam War where US troops were fighting in support of South Vietnamese units and friendly fire incidents were not uncommon.

The information emerging from the battlefields is that Russian forces are suffering more from friendly fire incidents than Ukraine. This suggests certain things about the organization of Russias combat units.

After the initial invasion by a force thought to be between 170,000 and 190,000 experienced troops, replacements and reinforcements have mainly been poorly trained, inexperienced conscripts.

Many of the Russian units now fighting alongside each other in the field have never operated together before. There are also many fighters from militias in the pro-Russian enclaves in Luhansk and Donetsk as well as mercenaries from the Wagner Group. This has led to misidentification and increased the chance of friendly fire incidents on the Russian side.

According to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in November 2022, Alexander Khodakovsky, the military commander of the breakaway Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR), estimated that at that stage, 60% of Russian losses since the battle for Mariupol in May last year were due to such incidents.

The ISW quoted one episode where a Russian patrol returning to its base near Donetsk on November 5 drove into a ditch that had been dug by army subcontractors which they had not been made aware of.

The report concludes: The frequent replacement of Russian military leaders, promotion of inexperienced soldiers, and cobbled-together Russian force composition exacerbate the fragmented nature of the Russian chain of command and ineffectiveness of Russian forces and likely contributes to frequent friendly fire incidents.

The US has issued these sorts of cards before but almost always to identify the sorts of weapons US troops would be fighting against. But the latest deck has the opposite purpose and shows how seriously they are taking this problem.

Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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US deals Ukraine playing cards to avoid friendly fire - Asia Times