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October 5, 2022

Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, is an expert on international conflictson how they begin and how they may end.

This will shape the rest of the twenty-first century. If Russia loses, or it doesnt get what it wants, it will be a different Russia afterward, Hein Goemans tells the New Yorker. If Russia wins, it will be a different Europe afterward.

He says the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops from northeastern Ukraine is by no means signaling the last stretch of the war. Most people believe that if one side wins a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely, says Goemans, author of War and Punishment: The Causes of War Termination and the First World War (Princeton University Press, 2000) and coauthor of Leaders and International Conflict (Cambridge University Press, 2011).

But thats not true. If I fight a war with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war aims. Only if something unexpected happens, would I change my expectations and my strategy.

Likewise, Putins sham referenda in occupied territories and his calls for a cease-fire do not make peace now any more likely, according to Goemans. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Goemans: No, its not the beginning of the end, but it was unexpected. Individual victories or defeats in a specific battle are often mistakenly read as indicating a change in the likelihood of war termination. Instead, what matters most is whether and how expectations on both sides change. And in this case, clearly Russian expectations of a swift victory have changed. The proof is in the conscription of 300,000 more Russian men, some reportedly without any military training or experience. Russia, I think, has become more pessimistic about getting its original war aims fulfilled. But you dont just kill the enemy and thats that. You need the opponents to change their mind. On the other hand, Ukraine has perhaps become more optimistic. If that is true, the key point to realize is that the gap between the minimal demands may not have decreased at all. While the terms may have shifted in Ukraines favor, both parties may well be as far apart as they had been before.

Hein Goemans.

Goemans: Most people think that if you win a battle or a campaign, peace becomes more likely because the other side is defeated, and they recognize that they are defeated, which makes them more willing to make a deal. But thats not the right way to look at it. A change in expectations is often more important than a single battle or campaign victory. Because if I fight a war or battle with you and do poorlybut expected to do poorly in the hopes that the next battle will go better for methen Im not going to change my war game. Only if something unexpected happened, would I change my expectations and my strategy. Thats the fundamental thing. You could sustain a military defeat and still get a better deal.

A good example is the Yom Kippur War of 1974. The attacking Egyptian army was drastically defeated by the Israelis. Yet the Egyptians got the Sinai back. You askhow is that possible? Well, its because the Egyptian army showed that they were able to cross the Suez Canal and with it all the booby traps and barricades that Israel had built on the Suez Canal. They showed themselves a lot more competent than the Israelis had thought after 1967. So, you have this weird case where militarily Egypt lost, and still, the Egyptians got a better deal in the end, which was clearly not a military outcome. What happened was a change in expectations.

Goemans: No. I still expect the war to last at least another year, maybe two. Both sides still have plans and ideas to test before their expectations are likely to converge. On Putins side, he may still expect Europes unity to crumble and try to force Ukraine to lower its minimum demands, especially if he can freeze them over the winter as a result of the lack of Russian natural gas. Hell propose a deal that the Ukrainians or the West cannot accept; and the Ukrainians will propose a deal that he cannot accept. Thats for domestic consumption in Russia; hes just posturing.

Im not a foreign policy expert, but he probably does this because his massive mobilization is deeply unpopular among the Russian people. He has to find a way to say to his domestic audience something along the lines of, I have to do this. My hands are forced. Im trying honestly to make peace so its not my fault. Its the fault of the evil Ukrainian Nazis.

Ultimately, I think Putins trying to strengthen his bargaining position with the sham referenda and illegal annexations. If it had been a fair referendum under United Nations supervisionthat might have had an effect. But not like this. I meanvoting was held with guards with machine guns at the polling stations and weve seen reports of men with guns at peoples doors, forcing Ukrainians to fill out ballots while being watched. That sends a clear message.

A Ukrainian mechanic test drives a repaired Russian tank in a wooded area outside of Kharkiv, Ukraine, in September. (Getty Images photo / Paula Bronstein)

Goemans: Generally speaking, war provides information and shows the truththe opponents cardsbecause theres no more bluffing. We learn things about our opponent that we wouldnt have known had we not fought. You can see your foes true strength on the battlefield: whose forces are stronger, how good are their tanks, how capable are their generalsall that becomes public knowledge. Thats the prerequisite for peace; you can strike a deal because both sides now know the truth.

Thats the theory, at least. But Ive come to see that intuitive kind of view as insufficient.

We know that some leaders continue fighting for their own survival, against the very interests of their country and their own people. We saw that in Germany in the First and Second World War and also in Japan during World War II. We political scientists hold that opponents fight in order to find that something that makes peace possible. But what really is that? One side must get the other to change its mind. You must get them to agree that making a deal now is better than to continue fighting. I think its the best explanation we have so far. But its not satisfying.

Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on.

Goemans: Hes boxed himself in. If Putin loses in Ukraine hell fall from power, and likely end up being killed. Leaders in such situations gamble for resurrection, which means they continue with a war, often at greater intensity and brutality, because anything other than victory would mean their own exile or death. It reminds me of the case of Germany in the First World War where just four months into the war Kaiser Wilhelm II and his cabinet concluded that it was unwinnable. Yet, they fought on for another four years. Why? Because they knew that if they lost, they would be overthrown by a revolution. Of course, they were right. Leaders in such unwinnable situations are very dangerous. They are the reason that World War I dragged on much longer than it should have. Thats why Putin is so dangerous.

Goemans: Hes certainly doubling down. Hes painted himself into a corner and cant really make a peace deal. According to classic war-termination theory, three variables have to be consideredinformation, credible commitment, and domestic politics. As long as both sides believe they can win, which clearly they do, and their distrust for each other is growingthink of the recently discovered mass graves and reports of torture by Russian soldiersthere will be no peace.

Putin also has a domestic problem. Originally, he delayed mass mobilization to avoid domestic unrest, against the advice of the political hawks in the Kremlin who want a larger-scale war. Over the past week, more than 200,000 Russians have fled their country to avoid conscription. Even if Putin were to be assassinated now, Im not sure that these hawks wouldnt simply escalate the war and press on. It scares the [expletive] out of me because these people talk about nukes and about attacking Poland and Latvia, Lithuania, and about nuking Paris and London. They are nuts.

Goemans: The hawks in the Kremlin think the war has been fought wrongly or poorly. And in a sense, they are right. The Russian army is just a very weak, poor army. What worries me is that if Russia continues to have to retreat from occupied territory, a small, tactical nuclear strike becomes a real possibilityin an attempt to stop Ukrainian advances. My friend, Branislav Slantchev [a Rochester PhD and now a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego], has written about this in a recent, terrifying blog post. In that scenario, he said, he expects the Russians to use a nuclear weapon under 1 kiloton, which he says one could fire with artillery or any of the multiple dual-use rockets and missiles the Russians have in their arsenal. Hes got a very good eye and good ears. Hes scared. As am I.

Of course, the United States and the rest of the world would go absolutely bananas. The thing that really struck me a few days ago is that people in Washington have said very clearly, and in very unmistakable terms, that they told Putin and the Kremlin nukes would be unacceptable. So that tells me they are afraid that Russia might actually do it. Otherwise, they wouldnt have to spell it out like that.

(University of Rochester illustration / Michael Osadciw)

Goemans: Well, lets start with the worst-case scenarioif Russia wins and Ukraine is dismembered or wiped out. As a result, the whole security infrastructure in Europe would crumble with direct repercussions for NATO, European Union cohesion, Germany, and the Middle East. All these policies that have led to peaceful cooperation will all be thrown out, creating instability in Europe and affect the United States deeply. And, of course, other would-be dictators would learn from Putins example. A large part of the stability that we saw during the Cold War era was based on the expectation that the situation would be stable. It was stable because we expected it to be stable. But thats clearly no longer the case.

In the best-case scenario Ukraine wins a better deal than before the war. For me that means more defensible borders, which would mean some form of continued Western presence and the arming of Ukraine by the West, along with training and funding. All that would create a much more stable Europe. I hope that the extremists in Russia would have learned a lesson and everybody in Europe would be on their guard with respect to Russia for another generation or two.

Goemans: Putin is gambling with Russias future. On top of the sanctions, the brain drain is tremendous, as is the exodus of young and middle-aged, educated males who have the means and who are worried about being conscripted. Add to that the mounting numbers of dead soldiers: Russia is going to have an acute shortage of men, which will create all kinds of economic and societal problems.

Goemans: Their army is poor, their equipment is rotten, and the sanctions make it impossible to build new equipment, to update their machinery. The best they can hope for? Well, I dont want to advocate for this, of course, but maybe a return to the status quo before February 24, and internationally overseen plebiscites in Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea. Thats the very best they could get. But I dont think the Ukrainians would ever accept plebiscites in Luhansk and Donetsk and the areas possibly going to Russia. The question is, what would the Ukrainians accept for Crimea? I dont know. Ukraines Zelensky has basically said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea so that ties his hands, otherwise people would say, you betrayed us. If Zelensky accepted peace terms right now, hed be out of office in a day.

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When will the war in Ukraine end? And how? - University of Rochester

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has appeared to admit severe losses in Ukraine, conceding the severity of the Kremlins recent military reversals and insisting Russia would stabilise the situation in four Ukrainian regions Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia it illegally claimed as its own territory last week. We are working on the assumption that the situation in the new territories will stabilise, Putin told Russian teachers during a televised video call on Wednesday.

The UN nuclear agency chief is en route to Kyiv to discuss creating a security zone around Ukraines Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, after Putin ordered his government to take it over. On our way to Kyiv for important meetings, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi wrote on Twitter, saying the need for a protection zone around the site was more urgent than ever. Grossi is also expected to visit Moscow in the coming days to discuss the situation at the plant. The IAEA said it had learned of plans to restart one reactor at the plant, where all six reactors have been shut down for weeks.

Ukraines forces are pushing their advance in the east and south, forcing Russian troops to retreat under pressure on both fronts. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraines military had made major, rapid advances against Russian forces in the past week, taking back dozens of towns in regions in the south and east that Russia has declared annexed. Military experts say Russia is at its weakest point, partly because of its decision not to mobilise earlier and partly because of massive losses of troops and equipment.

Ukraine has extended its area of control in the Kherson region by six to 12 miles, according to its militarys southern command. Zelenskiy confirmed the recapture of the villages of Novovoskresenske, Novohryhorivka and Petropavlivka, saying the settlements were liberated from the sham referendum and stabilised, in an address on Wednesday. Kherson regions Moscow-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov, said the withdrawal was a tactical regrouping to deliver a retaliatory blow. The extent of Russias retreat remains unclear.

Moscows forces have left behind smashed towns once under occupation and, in places, mass burial sites and evidence of torture chambers. In Lyman, which was retaken by Ukrainian forces on Sunday, more than 50 graves have been found, some marked with names, others with numbers, the Kyiv-based outlet Hromadske reported on Wednesday.

The UN has warned Russias claimed annexation of Ukraine territory will only exacerbate human rights violations. Christian Salazar Volkmann, said UN experts had documented a range of violations of the rights to life, liberty and security and warned the situation would only worsen as Russia pushes forward with the annexation of some Ukrainian regions.

Attempts to play down retreats in Ukraine are no longer washing inside Russia with the latest military failures spilling on to local television screens. Why do we advance metre by metre when they advance village by village? Olga Skabeyeva, the countrys top state-TV host, asked a Russia-appointed official in Luhansk in a recent broadcast. Pro-war military bloggers and journalists are also criticising the Kremlin and painting a bleak picture of deteriorating Russian morale. Roman Saponkov, a prominent war correspondent, described his despair over the pullback in Kherson on his Telegram channel: I really dont know what to say to you. The retreat is catastrophic.

Poland says it has asked to have US nuclear weapons based on its territory, amid growing fears that Putin could resort to using nuclear arms in Ukraine. The request from the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, is widely seen as symbolic and appears to be the latest example of nuclear signalling to deter Putin. The White House, however, said it had not received such a request.

The car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, the daughter of prominent Russian political figure Alexander Dugin, was allegedly authorised by elements within the Ukrainian government, according to US intelligence sources who spoke with the New York Times and CNN. The United States took no part in the attack, either by providing intelligence or other assistance, the officials said.

A SpaceX rocket carrying Russian cosmonaut, Anna Kikina, the only female cosmonaut in service, soared into orbit from Florida on Wednesday. The International Space Station crew comprising Kikina, two Americans and a Japanese astronaut flew together in a demonstration of US-Russian teamwork in space despite Ukraine war tensions.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 225 of the invasion - The Guardian

Ever since Ukraine launched a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces in late August, American officials have tried to claim credit, insisting that U.S. intelligence has been key to Ukraines battlefield victories.

Yet U.S. officials have simultaneously downplayed their intelligence failures in Ukraine especially their glaring mistakes at the outset of the war. When Putin invaded in February, U.S. intelligence officials told the White House that Russia would win in a matter of days by quickly overwhelming the Ukrainian army, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, who asked not to be named to discuss sensitive information.

The Central Intelligence Agency was so pessimistic about Ukraines chances that officials told President Joe Biden and other policymakers that the best they could expect was that the remnants of Ukraines defeated forces would mount an insurgency, a guerrilla war against the Russian occupiers. By the time of the February invasion, the CIA was already planning how to provide covert support for a Ukrainian insurgency following a Russian military victory, the officials said.

U.S. intelligence reports at the time predicted that Kyiv would fall quickly, perhaps in a week or two at the most. The predictions spurred the Biden administration to secretly withdraw some key U.S. intelligence assets from Ukraine, including covert former special operations personnel on contract with the CIA, the current and former officials said.Their account was backed up by a Naval officer and a former Navy SEAL, who were aware of the movements and who also asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The CIA got it completely wrong, said one former senior U.S. intelligence official, who is knowledgeable about what the CIA was reporting when the Russian invasion began. They thought Russia would win right away.

When it became clear that the agencys predictions of a rapid Russian victory had been wrong, the Biden administration sent the clandestine assets that had been pulled out of Ukraine back into the country, the military and intelligence officials said. One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency never completely left.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding.

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February,several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said.The finding indicates that the president hasquietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administrations decision to conduct a broad program ofclandestineoperations inside the country. One former special forces officer said that Biden amended a preexisting finding, originally approved during the Obama administration, that was designed to counter malign foreign influence activities.A former CIA officer told The Intercept that Bidens use of the preexisting finding has frustrated some intelligence officials, who believe that U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict differs so much from the spirit of the finding that it should merit a new one.A CIA spokesperson declined to comment about whether there is a presidential covert action finding for operations in Ukraine.

The U.S. intelligence communitys stunning failure at the beginning of the war to recognize the fundamental weaknesses in the Russian system mirrors its blindness to the military and economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, when Washington failed to predict the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. While not all U.S. intelligence analysts underestimated the Ukrainian will to fight, the communitys missteps in Ukraine came just months after American intelligence gravely underestimated how fast the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan would collapse in 2021, leading to a rapid takeover by the Taliban.

Some senior U.S. intelligence officials have since admitted they were wrong in projecting a quick Russian victory. In March, Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, acknowledged during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that the CIA didnt do well in terms of predicting the military challenges that [Putin] has encountered with his own military.

The director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, said at the same March hearing that my view was that, based on a variety of factors, that the Ukrainians were not as ready as I thought they should be, therefore I questioned their will to fight, [and] that was a bad assessment on my part.

I think assessing morale, and a will to fight is a very difficult analytical task, he added. We had different inputs from different organizations. And at least from my perspective as director, I did not do as well as I could have.

Yet these admissions mask a more fundamental failure that officials have not fully acknowledged: U.S. intelligence did not recognize the significance of rampant corruption and incompetence in the Putin regime, particularly in both the Russian army and Moscows defense industries, the current and former intelligence officials said. U.S. intelligence missed the impact of corrupt insider dealing and deceit among Putin loyalists in Moscows defense establishment, which has left the Russian army a brittle and hollow shell.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system, said the former senior intelligence official. They missed it, and ignored any evidence of it.

There was no reporting on the corruption in the Russian system.

Following a string of Russian defeats, even prominent Russian analysts have begun to openly blame the corruption and deceit that plagues the Russian system. On Russian television last weekend, Andrey Gurulyov, the former deputy commander of Russias southern military district and now a member of the Russian Duma, blamed his countrys losses on a system of lies, top to bottom.

Additionally, Putin imposed an invasion plan on the Russian military that was impossible to achieve, one current U.S. official argued. You cant really separate out the issue of Russian military competency from the fact that they were shackled to an impossible plan, which led to poor military preparation, the official said.

Remains of Russian uniforms in the destroyed village of Shandryholove near Lyman, Ukraine, on Oct.3, 2022.

Photo: Wojciech Grzedzinski/Getty Images

The inability of the U.S. intelligence community to recognize the significance of Russian corruption appears to be the result of an over-reliance on technical intelligence. Before the war, high-tech satellites and surveillance systems allowed the U.S. to track the deployment of Russian troops, tanks, and planes, and to eavesdrop on Russian military officials, enabling U.S. intelligence to accurately predict the timing of the invasion. But it would have needed more human spies inside Russia to see that the Russian army and defense industries were deeply corrupt.

Since the war began, a long list of weaknesses in the Russian military and its defense industries have been exposed, symbolized by the so-called jack-in-the-box flaw in Russian tanks. Ukrainian forces quickly learned that one well-placed shot could blow off a Russian tank turret, sending it sky high and killing the entire crew. It became clear that Russian tanks had been designed and built cheaply with ammunition stored openly in a ring inside the turret that can explode when the turret is hit and that crew safety had not been prioritized. In July, Adm. Tony Radakin, Britains military chief, said that Russia had lost almost 1,700 tanks in Ukraine.

Weak leadership, poor training, and low morale have led to huge casualties among Russian rank and file soldiers. In August, the Pentagon estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Ukraine has also suffered huge casualties, but Russian front-line strength has been badly weakened.

Meanwhile, one of the biggest mysteries for U.S. analysts has been Russias failure to gain control of Ukraines skies, despite having a far larger air force. Aircraft design flaws, poor pilot training, and gaps in aircraft maintenance have left Russian aircraft vulnerable to Ukraines air defenses, which have been bolstered with Stinger missiles and other Western air defense systems.

The failure of U.S. intelligence to see the dysfunction in the Russian army and defense industries means that it also didnt foresee Russias ongoing battlefield defeats, which are now having a profound political and social impact on both Putin and Russia. Putin has ordered a partial mobilization to replace heavy battlefield losses,sparking large-scale protests. At least 200,000 people have already fled Russia, including thousands of young men seeking to avoid conscription.

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CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong? - The Intercept

Soccer Football - Carabao Cup Final - Chelsea v Liverpool - Wembley Stadium, London, Britain - February 27, 2022 Liverpool fan with the big screen in the background in support of Ukraine before the match Action Images via Reuters/John Sibley TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

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Ukraine has joined Spain and Portugal in their bidto host the 2030 World Cup.

The partnership between the three countries was confirmed by leaders of the countries' three soccer federations at UEFA headquarters Wednesday.

"This is the dream of millions of Ukrainian fans. The dream of people who survived the horrors of war or are still in the occupied territories, over which the Ukrainian flag will surely fly soon," said Andriy Pavelko, president of Ukraine's soccer federation, at a news conference Wednesday.

He said the move was sanctioned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine has been under full-scale invasion by Russia since February.

Details were not given on how many games would be held in Ukraine, or in which cities, but the Olympic Stadium in Kyiv hosted the finals of the 2012 European Championship and the 2018 Champions League.

"Now it's not the Iberian bid, it's the European bid," Spain's soccer federation president, Luis Rubiales, said at the news conference, according to the Associated Press. "Together we represent the power of transformation football has in society."

Spain and Portugal previouslyannounced their joint bid in June 2021. The new bid faces competition from a collaboration between Egypt, Greece and Saudi Arabia, and a South American bid between Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Chile.

FIFA will vote to choose the host in 2024.

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Ukraine joins Spain and Portugal's joint bid to host 2030 World Cup - CNBC

Tourists by the boulevard at a Black Sea resort in Odesa, Ukraine, on Sept. 3. Tourists are not allowed to enter the public beach due to the presence of land mines and other explosives. Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto via Getty Images hide caption

Tourists by the boulevard at a Black Sea resort in Odesa, Ukraine, on Sept. 3. Tourists are not allowed to enter the public beach due to the presence of land mines and other explosives.

SLAVSKE, Ukraine Ukraine's war-battered economy is expected to shrink by at least a third this year, hitting virtually every sector. This includes the tourism industry, which officials say had started to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

But the Ukrainian government still hopes its people will continue to travel within the country and spend money in locales on the Black Sea and in the Carpathian Mountains in the west.

"A lot of people in Ukraine still don't feel it's OK to go on vacation or travel," Mariana Oleskiv, chair of Ukraine's State Agency for Tourism Development, tells NPR.

More than seven months into the war, "we understand that many people in our country live in very bad conditions, that some people don't have electricity and our soldiers sleep in trenches," she says.

According to agency data provided to NPR, domestic tourism, which the agency defines as leaving your home city for leisure, increased 24% between 2019 and 2021. Nearly 4.2 million foreign tourists visited Ukraine in 2021 a 30% jump over the previous year.

Oleskiv says she forecasted that the trend would continue into 2022, but then the war started.

Trips into Ukraine by international tourists are down between 85% and 90%, says Oleskiv. Tour operators in safer areas of Ukraine reported to the government that occupancy rates are down 50% this summer compared to last. She says tourism in places such as Odesa and other parts of southern Ukraine closer to the front line of the conflict has "stopped completely."

Tourists take the Soviet-era Zakhar Berkut resort chairlift in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The tourist town is located in the Carpathian Mountains, a wildly popular vacation destination for Ukrainians. Ashley Westerman/NPR hide caption

Tourists take the Soviet-era Zakhar Berkut resort chairlift in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The tourist town is located in the Carpathian Mountains, a wildly popular vacation destination for Ukrainians.

The slowdown is being felt across the country, including in the Carpathian Mountains, a popular vacation destination in the relatively safe western part of the country.

Katerina Minich manages the Dvir Kniazhoiy Korony hotel in Slavske, a popular ski resort town about 85 miles south of Lviv. Minich tells NPR that the number of guests at her 15-room hotel is down about 60% from last year.

"Overall, from February to [August], the hotel's earnings are 70 to 80% lower" compared to last year, Minich said by text message. She says other hotels in Slavske, whose population has shrunk since the war broke out, have experienced a similar drop in guests and revenues.

Tourists ski near the Chornohora mountain range, part of the Carpathian Mountains, in western Ukraine on Feb. 21, 2021, one year before the Russian invasion. Markiian Lyseiko/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images hide caption

Tourists ski near the Chornohora mountain range, part of the Carpathian Mountains, in western Ukraine on Feb. 21, 2021, one year before the Russian invasion.

The true damage Russia's full-scale ground invasion has wrought on Ukraine's domestic tourism sector won't be fully known for months, Oleskiv says. But her agency plans to start trying to turn things around with a new tourism campaign called "Get Inspired by Ukraine" which she says aims to tell Ukrainians they have a right to take a rest.

"At some point, we need to stop and take a breath and don't be so involved in the news," Oleskiv says.

Some Ukrainians are already following the advice.

"I think that in order to be more effective, you have to relax sometimes," Natalii Baliuk, 35, from Kyiv said on a visit to Slavske in August. "Otherwise, you just will not be able to do anything and you cannot serve this country."

Baliuk and her friends traveled to the Carpathians for Ukrainian Independence Day not only because they believed it to be safe, but also because one of her friends could not travel abroad because martial law prevents men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving Ukraine.

The conflict in Ukraine could affect tourism throughout all of Europe, according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Russian and Ukrainian tourists spend a combined $45 billion a year, but that number is expected to decrease. In addition to the loss of tourists, the report says the conflict will also raise food and fuel prices, affect traveler confidence and disposable incomes, and restrict airlines and airspace.

Vendors sell food, beverages and souvenirs at a lookout spot in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The week of Ukrainian Independence Day, the tourist town saw a small spike in visitors, but overall tourism this summer was down significantly across the Carpathian Mountains because of the war. Ashley Westerman/NPR hide caption

Vendors sell food, beverages and souvenirs at a lookout spot in Slavske, Ukraine, in August. The week of Ukrainian Independence Day, the tourist town saw a small spike in visitors, but overall tourism this summer was down significantly across the Carpathian Mountains because of the war.

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With Ukraine at war, officials hope to bring tourism back to areas away from fighting - NPR