Archive for the ‘Ukraine’ Category

Russia-Ukraine war updates for May 21, 2022

As Russia intensifies push for Donbas, Ukraine rules out ceasefire

Ukraine ruled out a ceasefire or concessions to Moscow as Russia intensified an offensive in the eastern Donbas region and stopped providing gas to Finland.

After ending weeks of resistance by the last Ukrainian fighters in the strategic southeastern city of Mariupol, Russia is waging what appears to be a major offensive in Luhansk, one of two provinces in Donbas.

Russian-backed separatists already controlled swathes of territory in Luhansk and the neighboring Donetsk province before the Feb. 24 invasion, but Moscow wants to seize the last remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Donbas.

"The situation in Donbas is extremely difficult," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address. The Russian army was trying to attack the cities of Sloviansk and Sievierodonetsk, but Ukrainian forces were holding off their advance, he said.

Earlier, Zelenskiy told local television that while the fighting would be bloody, the end would come only through diplomacy and that the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory would be temporary.

Zelenskyy adviser Mykhailo Podolyak ruled out agreeing to a ceasefire and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory. He said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting.

"The war will not stop (after concessions). It will just be put on pause for some time," Podolyak, Ukraine's lead negotiator, told Reuters in an interview in the heavily guarded presidential office.

"They'll start a new offensive, even more bloody and large-scale."

Reuters

President Joe Biden tweeted a video of himself signing legislation authorizing an additional $40 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

Biden inked the aid boost, which was overwhelmingly approved by Congress this week, during his state visit to Seoul, South Korea.

"This law will allow us to continue sending security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to the people of Ukraine as they continue to defend their democracy and freedom," the tweet from Biden's official White House Twitter account said.

Biden also during his visit signed the Access to Baby Formula Act, which is designed to alleviate a nationwide shortage of formula in the United States.

Both bills were flown to South Korea by a U.S. government official on a commercial jet who was already planning to travel to Asia for work-related duties, a White House official told NBC News.

Dan Mangan

A bus carrying service members of the Ukrainian armed forces, who surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steel mill, drives away under escort of the pro-Russian military in the course of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, in Mariupol, Ukraine May 20, 2022.

Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters

Concern mounted over the fate of the Ukrainian fighters who became Moscow's prisoners as Russia claimed seizure of the steel plant-turned-fortress in Mariupol.

The Russian Defense Ministry released video of Ukrainian soldiers being taken into custody after announcing that its forces had removed the last holdouts from the plant's miles of underground tunnels. The Azovstal steel plant became a symbol of Ukrainian tenacity, and its seizure delivers Russian President Vladimir Putin a badly wanted victory in the war he began in February.

Family members of the steel mill fighters, who authorities say came from a variety of military and law enforcement units, have pleaded for them to be given rights as prisoners of war and eventually returned to Ukraine. They are considered heroes by their fellow citizens.

Convoys of buses, guarded by Russian armored vehicles, left the plant Friday. At least some Ukrainians were taken to a former penal colony, while Russian authorities said others were hospitalized.

Denis Pushilin, the pro-Kremlin head of an area of eastern Ukraine controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, said the Ukrainians were sure to face a tribunal. Russian officials and state media have sought to characterize the fighters as neo-Nazis and criminals.

"I believe that justice must be restored. There is a request for this from ordinary people, society, and, probably, the sane part of the world community," Russian state news agency Tass quoted Pushilin as saying.

Associated Press

Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the I-80 Speedway on May 01, 2022 in Greenwood, Nebraska. Trump is supporting Charles Herbster in the Nebraska gubernatorial race.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Russia on Saturday released a list of nearly 1,000 Americans who are now permanently barred from entering the country, an action likely in response to sanctions imposed on the nation following its February invasion of Ukraine.

The list includes President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, Hillary Clinton and George Soros. It also names 211 Republicans and 224 Democrats from both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

There are also a few notable omissions. Former President Donald Trump and Mike Pence, who served as his vice president, are not included. Former President Barack Obama is also not on the list.

A spokesperson for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Read more here.

Carmen Reinicke

Superyacht Valerie, linked to chief of Russian state aerospace and defence conglomerate Rostec Sergei Chemezov, is seen at Barcelona Port in Barcelona city, Spain, March 9, 2022.

Albert Gea | Reuters

McKinsey & Co., a major global consulting firm, worked with both a Russian weapons maker and the Pentagon simultaneously, NBC News reported today.

An NBC investigation uncovered that McKinsey advised Rostec, a Russian state-owned manufacturing company in recent years. The company manufactures engines for missiles, including many of the weapons that Russia has fired on Ukraine since its February invasion.

The scope of McKinsey's work with Rostec did not directly involve weapons, according to the report. Still, the consulting firm was working on national security contracts for the U.S. government, including the Defense Department and U.S. intelligence community.

It's the latest accusation of conflicts of interest faced by McKinsey. The consulting firm previously worked with opioid manufacturers while advising officials at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on opioids. Congress has also scrutinized the company for its work in China.

A McKinsey spokesman told NBC News that it has strict rules and firewalls to safeguard against conflicts of interest, and that its work abroad is walled off from its work in Washington.

Carmen Reinicke

Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa, center, talks to media in Irpin, Ukraine, Saturday, May 21, 2022.

Efrem Lukatsky | AP Photo

Antnio Costa, Portugal's prime minister, visited Kyiv today and made a joint appearance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss aid, the president's office said in a statement.

"I once again felt such a closeness of values and a common understanding by our nations of the future of Europe. Portugal has been helping Ukraine since the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion of our land," Zelenskyy said, according to a statement.

"I am grateful to your country and to you personally, Mr. Prime Minister, for your defensive, political and humanitarian assistance, as well as for the great support for our citizens, forcibly displaced Ukrainians who fled the war and are now on the European continent in various countries, in particular in Portugal," he added.

Zelenskyy also called for Portugal's support in Ukraine's bid for accession to the European Union.

Costa is the latest of many world leaders to visit Kyiv or reach out to Zelenskyy to provide aid in recent weeks. In a tweet, he confirmed Portugal's support of Ukraine.

"We are all moved by the European choice made by Ukraine and its people and we welcome it with open arms," he said. "It is fundamental to accelerate Ukraine's political and economic convergence with the EU."

Carmen Reinicke

A soldier holds a Javelin missile system during a military exercise in the training centre of Ukrainian Ground Forces near Rivne, Ukraine May 26, 2021. Picture taken May 26, 2021.

Gleb Garanich | Reuters

Albania's defense minister said Saturday the Western Balkan country has bought anti-tank Javelin missiles to strengthen its defenses.

Niko Peleshi said Albania signed a contract with U.S. Lockheed Martin, without specifying the number of missiles, how much they cost or when they would be delivered.

Peleshi said buying the missiles was part of the army's modernization efforts.

Earlier this week, Lockheed Martin said the U.S. Army had awarded two production contracts for Javelin missiles and associated equipment and services with total value of $309 million. These contracts include more than 1300 Javelin missiles funded from the recent Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act and orders for several international customers including Norway, Albania, Latvia and Thailand.

"Not to create any panic, there is no concrete threat. We are a NATO member country and the national security issue resolved. We are protected," the minister told journalists.

Peleshi also said NATO is not a threat to any country, including Russia. Tirana supports the alliance's "open door" policy welcoming Finland and Sweden as new members, which Peleshi said were "two independent sovereign countries with high political, legal and also military standards."

Associated Press

Soldiers put camouflage atop a weaponized Geon Strike 1000 ATV on May 20, 2022 in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. The commercially sold vehicle was modified by the Ukrainian Army for use against invading Russian soldiers. Troops from the 93rd brigade have been fighting to repel a Russian advance to the south from Izium.

KHARKIV OBLAST - MAY 20: Soldiers put camouflage atop a weaponized Geon Strike 1000 ATV on May 20, 2022 in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. The commercially sold vehicle was modified by the Ukrainian Army for use again invading Russian soldiers. Troops from the 93rd brigade have been fighting to repel a Russian advance to the south from Izium. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

John Moore | Getty Images News | Getty Images

KHARKIV OBLAST - MAY 20: Ukrainian Army Major Oleh "Serafim" Shevchenko checks the steering on an amphibious Argo 8X8 ATV on May 20, 2022 in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. Shevchenko modified the Canadian made vehicle, as well as the Ukrainian made Geon Strike 1000 (L) for military use against invading Russian forces. Soldiers from the Ukrainian Army's 93rd brigade have been fighting to repel a Russian advance to the south from Izium. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

John Moore | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Soldiers put camouflage atop a weaponized Geon Strike 1000 ATV on May 20, 2022 in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. T

John Moore | Getty Images

KHARKIV OBLAST - MAY 20: Camouflage covers Ukrainian military ATVs on May 20, 2022 in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. Ukrainian Army troops from the 93rd brigade have been fighting to repel a Russian advance to the south from Izium. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

John Moore | Getty Images News | Getty Images

John Moore | Getty Images

Sat, May 21 20227:17 AM EDT

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a joint news conference with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol at the Presidential office in Seoul, South Korea, May 21, 2022.

Jeon Heon-Kyun | Reuters

President Joe Biden signed legislation to support Ukraine with another $40 billion in U.S. assistance as the Russian invasion approaches its fourth month.

The legislation, which was passed by Congress with bipartisan support, deepens the U.S. commitment to Ukraine at a time of uncertainty about the war's future. Ukraine has successfully defended Kyiv, and Russia has refocused its offensive on the country's east, but American officials warn of the potential for a prolonged conflict.

The funding is intended to support Ukraine through September, and it dwarfs an earlier emergency measure that provided $13.6 billion.

The new legislation will provide $20 billion in military assistance, ensuring a steady stream of advanced weapons that have been used to blunt Russia's advances. There's also $8 billion in general economic support, $5 billion to address global food shortages that could result from the collapse of Ukrainian agriculture and more than $1 billion to help refugees.

Biden signed the measure under unusual circumstances. Because he's in the middle of a trip to Asia, a U.S. official brought a copy of the bill on a commercial flight to Seoul for the president to sign, according to a White House official.

Associated Press

Sat, May 21 20227:09 AM EDT

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a formal deal with allies outlining how to get compensation from Russia for the immense damage it has caused to Ukraine with its invasion.

"We invite partner countries to sign a multilateral agreement and create a mechanism ensuring that everybody who suffered from Russian actions can receive compensation for all losses incurred," Zelenskyy said in a video address Friday.

Under such a deal, Russian funds and property in nations which are part of the agreement would be confiscated and allocated to a compensation fund.

Ukraine's president says he will be addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos on May 23.

Ole Jensen | Getty Images News | Getty Images

"That would be fair. And Russia will feel the weight of every missile, every bomb, every shell which it has fired at us," he said, stressing that such a mechanism would prove that countries that act as invaders would have to pay for their aggression.

Several countries are discussing changing their laws to allow the redistribution of seized foreign assets for compensating war victims or rebuilding countries after war. Canada has already said it would change its laws to enable this.

Natasha Turak

Sat, May 21 20225:24 AM EDT

U.K. Boris Johnson spoke with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday, focusing on their two countries' cooperation and the war in Ukraine.

Johnson raised the issue of Turkey's opposition to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership applications, and "encouraged" Erdogan to work with both countries and NATO leaders to address his concerns, a U.K. government statement said. The 30-member alliance will be meeting in Madrid in June.

Sweden and Finland have made the decision to apply for NATO membership, which would mean a significant enlargement for the alliance along Russia's western border, as the two countries reassessed their security requirements amid Russia's war in Ukraine.

NATO requires unanimous consent to admit new members, and so far Turkey is the only state standing in the way, citing the Nordic states' support for Kurdish groups that Ankara classifies as terrorists.

Natasha Turak

Sat, May 21 20224:49 AM EDT

Representatives from the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan walked out of a meeting of ministers during theAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bangkok, Thailand. The walk-out was done while Russian economy ministerMaxim Reshetnikovwas speaking, in protest to Russia's military offensive in Ukraine.

The act was" an expression of disapproval at Russia's illegal war of aggression in Ukraine and its economic impact in the APEC region," Reuters quoted one diplomat as saying.

Natasha Turak

Sat, May 21 20224:18 AM EDT

Russia is using 'reconnaissance strike' tactics which it previously used in Syria, finding targets via reconnaissance drones and then striking them with aircraft or artillery.

But Russia is "likely experiencing a shortage of appropriate reconnaissance UAVs for this task, which is exacerbated by limitations in its domestic manufacturing capacity resulting from sanctions," the U.K.'s Ministry of Defence wrote in its daily intelligence update on Twitter.

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Russia-Ukraine war updates for May 21, 2022

Latest Russia-Ukraine War and Zelensky News: Live Updates – The New York Times

POKROVSK, Ukraine Camouflaged in a heap of branches cut from nearby trees, the weapon that Ukraine hopes will make a critical difference in its war with Russia is all but invisible from more than a few feet away.

Soon, a single round shoots out with a boom and a howling, metallic shriek as it sails toward Russian positions.

It is the American-made M777 howitzer. It shoots farther, moves faster and is hidden more easily, and its what the Ukrainian military has been waiting for.

Three months into the war in Ukraine, the first M777s the most lethal weapons the West has provided so far are now deployed in combat in Ukraines east. Their arrival has buoyed Ukraines hopes of achieving artillery superiority at least in some frontline areas, a key step toward military victories in a war now fought mostly on flat, open steppe at long ranges.

The American howitzers are chunky machines of steel and titanium swathed in hydraulic hoses and perched on four braces that fold up and down. They have already fired hundreds of rounds since arriving around May 8, destroying armored vehicles and killing Russian soldiers, Ukrainian commanders say.

This weapon brings us closer to victory, Col. Roman Kachur, commander of the 55th Artillery Brigade, whose unit was the first unit to deploy the weapon, said in an interview. Mixing confidence with an implicit plea for more weapons, he added: With every modern weapon, every precise weapon, we get closer to victory.

How close remains unclear, Western military analysts say. The arrival of the new weapons is no guarantee of success, as the Russians continue to engage in fierce fighting in the eastern Donbas region. Much depends on numbers.

Artillery is very much the business of quantity, Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington, Va., said in a telephone interview. The Russians are one of the largest artillery armies you can face.

The United States said weeks ago it would provide the howitzers, but their use in combat has so far been mostly hinted at in online videos posted, mostly anonymously, by soldiers. On Sunday, the military provided The New York Times a tour of a gun line in eastern Ukraine, the first independent confirmation by international media that the guns are in use.

Military analysts say the full effect wont be felt for at least another two weeks, because Ukraine has yet to train enough soldiers to fire all 90 such howitzers pledged by the United States and other allies. Only about a dozen guns are now at the front.

Arming Ukraine with more powerful weapons is a politically sensitive issue. The United States, France, Slovakia and other Western nations have been rushing in artillery and support systems such as drones, counter-battery radar and armored vehicles for towing guns even as Russia accuses the West of fighting a proxy war in Ukraine, and threatens unspecified consequences if weapons shipments continue.

Disagreements over how aggressively to confront Russia have cropped up in the Western coalition. France, Italy and Germany have suggested that Ukraine use the leverage of more powerful weapons to push for a cease-fire that might lead to a negotiated withdrawal of Russian forces.

Ukrainian officials have pushed back. They insist that momentum is on their side and that talks should come only after battlefield wins and recapturing territory once an almost inconceivable idea that became more tenable after Ukraines military inflicted multiple setbacks on Russia even before the arrival of Western heavy weaponry.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview on Ukrainian television over the weekend, said a diplomatic solution would come only after additional military victories for Ukraine, along with an influx of weapons. The Ukrainian military has repelled Russian troops from Kyiv and from positions near the countrys second-largest city, Kharkiv, but is under intense pressure now in a more limited battle for control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

Its like an automobile, not a gas-powered, or electric, but a hybrid, he said of ending the war with a mix of military gains and talks. And that is how war is: complicated.

Victory will be bloody, Mr. Zelensky said.

In any case, diplomatic talks halted about a week ago, both sides said, throwing the outcome back to the battlefields. And not all has gone Ukraines way. Russian forces are now close to surrounding the city of Sievierodonetsk, threatening an encirclement of Ukrainian troops.

Im surprised people believe Ukrainian forces can absorb this level of losses and then be ready to go on the offensive right afterward, Mr. Kofman, the analyst, said.

Still, the new, longer-ranged Western artillery are the most powerful and destructive of the many types now being provided by NATO countries. They fire three miles farther than the most common artillery system used by the Russian army in the Ukraine war, the Msta-S self-propelled howitzer and 10 miles farther if shooting a precision, GPS-guided projectile.

Out on the open plains of the east, a long drive over potholed roads and dirt tracks ends with jeeps pivoting quickly into a tree line.

Secrecy is paramount in the cat-and-mouse artillery duels that have defined the war in recent weeks. Soldiers waste no time piling fresh-cut branches onto the vehicles, as camouflage against enemy drones.

In the artillery duels, soldiers value not just range but the ability to quickly hide and move guns and supporting vehicles.

Since their deployment two weeks ago, the dozen or so howitzers operating in two artillery batteries had by Sunday fired 1,876 rounds, according to Ukrainian officers.

With a mix of airburst, anti-personnel fragmentation rounds and other types of projectiles, the Ukrainian gunners have destroyed at least three Russian armored vehicles, and by Colonel Kachurs estimate killed at least several dozen Russian soldiers.

At the firing line in the trees, empty ammunition boxes and spent cartridges were scattered amid foxholes. Kalashnikov rifles leaned against tree trunks.

The officers didnt say what they were targeting.

The purpose of the guns will be to grind down Russian positions and military infrastructure, such as ammunition depots and command posts, he said. Ukrainian soldiers say the howitzers will also save civilian lives by striking Russian artillery firing on their towns.

The types of Western artillery flowing into Ukraine now have several advantages over Soviet legacy systems, Ukrainian artillery officers said. Among the most important is their compatibility with NATO caliber shells, easing fears that Ukraine might soon run out of Soviet-standard ammunition now made mostly in Russia.

In addition to the weapons the United States is sending, the French have promised Caesar truck-mounted howitzers, which are capable of quickly driving away after firing in a maneuver known as shoot and scoot. Slovakia has also pledged howitzers.

But the American M777, known as the triple seven, is likely to have the greatest effect for the quantity of guns provided, providing accurate, long-range fire when sufficient crews are trained to use them, military analysts say.

The bottleneck is training. The United States has so far trained about 200 Ukrainian soldiers in six-day courses at bases in Germany. The Ukrainian military divided this group roughly in half, sending some to the front and others to train more Ukrainians. Training soldiers for all 90 guns the amount that are scheduled to arrive could take another several weeks, said Mykhailo Zhirokhov, the author of a book on artillery in Ukraines war with Russian-backed separatists, Gods of Hybrid War.

Smaller numbers of the computer-controlled, self-propelled Caesar guns from France will also help, Mr. Zhirokhov said, but learning to use them takes months. Even the French think they are too complicated, he said.

After the soldiers fired the M777, the gun was horizontal again, its barrel covered in camouflaging branches. Move faster! an officer yelled. The crew then ran, in case the Russians had fixed their location.

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Latest Russia-Ukraine War and Zelensky News: Live Updates - The New York Times

The Russia-Ukraine war at three months – Brookings Institution

Three months after Russias large-scale invasion of Ukraine began, the Russians have failed to achieve their objectives. U.S. officials now expect a war of attrition, with neither side capable of a decisive military breakthrough. How the war will conclude remains unclear.

On February 24, Russian forces invaded Ukraine from the north, including from Belarus, from the south out of Crimea, and from the east. The multiple axes of attack suggested that the Russian military aimed to quickly capture the capital of Kyiv, depose the democratically-elected government, and occupy perhaps as much as the eastern two-thirds of Ukraine.

The Russians failed. Their forces reached the outskirts of Kyiv but retreated at the end of March. The Russian armys thrust toward Odesa bogged down around Mykolaiv after three weeks. In May, Russian forces attacking Kharkiv, Ukraines second largest city and located just 25 miles from the Russian border, were pushed back, having entered only the citys outskirts.

The Russian military finally secured control over Mariupol in mid-May, when the last Ukrainian forces surrendered after a valiant resistance. Weeks of indiscriminate Russian shelling and bombing have left Mariupol, a predominately Russian-speaking city where almost half of population was ethnic Russian, absolutely devastated.

Following their retreat from Kyiv and northern Ukraine, Russian forces have concentrated on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. After six weeks, they have made some progress but at considerable cost against determined Ukrainian defenses.

Military analysts ponder whether the Russian army will soon become a spent force exhausted by heavy casualties, high equipment losses, poor morale, and weak logistics, and incapable of mounting another major offensive operation. The Kremlins decision not to declare a full mobilization makes it difficult for the Russian military to replace combat losses. U.S. officials see Russian President Vladimir Putin stubbornly digging in, discern no negotiating path in the near term, and expect a war of attrition, with the sides slugging it out but neither able to score a convincing victory.

Ukraine appears to have already won in one sense: virtually no one believes the Russian military capable of taking Kyiv and occupying one-half to two-thirds of the country. Ukrainians are returning to the capital, and life there has begun to take on an air of normalcy. However the war concludes, an independent and sovereign Ukrainian state will remain on the map of Europe.

Beyond that, things become more difficult to predict. The Kremlin has now focused on taking full control of the Donbas, a substantially downsized goal from its original invasion aims. Moscow may have to further reduce its Donbas objective to full control of Luhansk oblast but not all of Donetsk oblast. Russian forces in southern Ukraine have begun preparing defensive positions.

Ukrainian forces, bolstered by a growing flow of weapons from the West, have carried out successful counterattacks as well as conducting a stout mobile defense. However, transition from defense to a full-scale counteroffensive aimed at driving the Russians out of the territory they have occupied since February 24 would pose a tough challenge. In that case, some of the advantages that favor the defense would accrue to the Russian military.

A military stalemate that could perhaps drag on for many months more thus appears the most likely scenario.

A negotiated settlement offers one path to end a war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appeared ready for compromise on key questions in March, for example, offering to set aside Kyivs ambitions of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and accept neutrality. But his Russian counterpart did not take up the possibility to secure a neutral Ukraine and perhaps other gains.

In retrospect, that may turn out to be a missed opportunity for Moscow. Ukrainian attitudes toward negotiation have hardened since March. That reflects growing confidence in the abilities of the Ukrainian military and outrage at Russian war crimes, such as the wanton destruction of Mariupol, and atrocities in places such as Bucha and Borodianka. Public anger almost certainly limits the freedom of maneuver that Zelenskyy might have in considering possible concessions.

While Kyiv in March offered a proposal that suggested a readiness to compromise on Crimea, illegally seized and annexed by Russia in March 2014, Ukrainian officials now insist on full restoration of Ukraines borders as of 1991. The West should support that position and reject the Kremlins attempt to redraw international borders by force of arms.

Whether Kyiv would sustain that position if the war drags on is unknown. Barring a total collapse of the Russian military (not to be excluded, but unlikely), it is difficult to see how Ukraine can muster the necessary leverage to regain Crimea. A senior Ukrainian official privately said in September 2014 that perhaps Kyiv should let the then-occupied part of Donbas go they dont think like we do but he quickly added that no serious Ukrainian official could say that publicly and expect to survive. In a recent private discussion, a Ukrainian politician did not argue for giving up Crimea and Donbas but noted that regaining those territories would bring a liability: the return of three or four million pro-Russian voters, which would prove disruptive for Ukraines politics.

How Ukraine resolves this dilemma is a question for the Ukrainian government to decide. Zelenskyy has left the door open for diplomacy. If Moscow changes its approach and moves to a serious negotiation, Zelenskyy will have to weigh the balance of his desire to end the killing of Ukrainians, the imperative of protecting Kyivs positions of principle vs. the possible need for compromise, and the potential political blowback if Ukrainians believe a compromise concedes too much to Russia.

Only Zelenskyy and his government can weigh the trade-offs and make that delicate decision. The West should follow Kyivs lead in any negotiation, not pressing Ukraine to accept a settlement it does not want and not objecting to a settlement that Kyiv favors and believes meets Ukraines interests. Western countries will have to decide what to do about sanctions on Russia; some may wish to maintain sanctions even after a settlement, though the West should be sensitive to sanctions-easing if Kyiv says that is necessary to secure an otherwise acceptable deal.

Of course, this is an academic discussion as long as the Kremlin remains uninterested in serious negotiation.

Ukraine did nothing to provoke or justify this war of choice, a choice made by Putin. It is a tragedy for the country, one that has resulted in the death of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and enormous material damage to infrastructure, homes and apartments, and commercial and industrial facilities. (This could also become a tragedy for countries around the world that depend on Ukrainian food exports that are now blockaded.)

The war has also proven a disaster for Russia: tens of thousands of soldiers killed and wounded, major equipment losses, international isolation, sanctions that are inflicting real economic pain, and a galvanized, reinvigorated, rearming NATO that will soon welcome Finland and Sweden into its ranks. Moreover, NATO could well decide to make the presence of alliance forces on its eastern flank (e.g., in the Baltic states and Poland) permanent rather than rotating. Putins war will not succeed in bringing Ukraine closer to Moscows orbit; it is instead imbuing a hatred towards Russia in Ukraine that will take decades to overcome.

The war has a clear victim and a clear aggressor. It is in the Wests interest that the Kremlin fail in its attempt to subjugate Ukraine and deny Ukrainians the right to determine their own course. That means continuing to provide the Ukrainians the means to defend their country and drive back the invading Russian army. That also means ratcheting up sanctions to accelerate the havoc coming to the Russian economy due to Putins disastrous decisions.

In the end, the desired outcome to this war would see the Ukrainians forcing a Russian withdrawal or, at a minimum, getting Moscow to agree to a negotiated settlement on terms acceptable to Kyiv. Ensuring that Russias aggression fails and that Ukraine achieves one of these outcomes should be primary goals for the West.

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The Russia-Ukraine war at three months - Brookings Institution

Ukraine’s new law will let it fund the war effort by selling Russian assets – NPR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law on Monday that lays out a process for his country to seize and sell the assets of people who support Russia's invasion. Zelenskyy says the law will bolster Ukraine's war chest, three months after Russia sparked a bloody conflict with its neighbor.

The law is primarily aimed at Russian-owned assets and property in Ukraine, particularly Russian citizens who have already had their assets blocked by Ukraine's government. Last week, a Ukrainian court seized hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of assets owned by Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman an oligarch who was born in Ukraine.

The new law lists a number of offenses, such as giving money to Russia's government or glorifying those who are fighting against Ukraine. It also covers people who are found to have helped set up an occupation government in Russian-controlled portions of Ukraine, or those who help organize elections or referendums in occupied territories.

The law contains several elements that aim to ensure a rapid resolution of cases, including a stipulation that a person's failure to appear or be represented at court cannot slow the court's consideration of the claim against them. It also lays out plans for a speedy appeals process, with each party given five days to ask for an appeal. An appeals panel would then have five days to take up the matter.

The new sanction will be in effect for as long as Ukraine operates under martial law, as it has since the invasion began on Feb. 24. On Sunday, the Rada approved extending martial law in Ukraine through late August.

More here:
Ukraine's new law will let it fund the war effort by selling Russian assets - NPR

Ukraine war strains space station ties between Russia and US – NPR

The International Space Station depends on a mix of U.S. and Russian parts. "I hope we can hold it together as long as we can," says former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly. NASA hide caption

The International Space Station depends on a mix of U.S. and Russian parts. "I hope we can hold it together as long as we can," says former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly.

On the ground, tensions between the U.S. and Russia are running high.

Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely claims the U.S. is working with Nazis in Ukraine, while President Biden calls Putin a "war criminal."

Aboard the jointly controlled International Space Station (ISS), however, the tone is very different: American astronauts live side-by-side with Russian cosmonauts; they regularly check in with mission control centers in both countries; and supplies arrive aboard Russian and U.S. spacecraft alike.

NASA administrator Bill Nelson expects all that to continue for the foreseeable future: "I see nothing that has interrupted that professional relationship," Nelson said at a Senate hearing earlier this month. "No matter how awful Putin is conducting a war with such disastrous results in Ukraine."

But as the decades-old station nears the end of its physical lifespan, some experts worry that the long-standing relationship may come to an end.

"I hope we can hold it together as long as we can," says Scott Kelly, a former astronaut who lived alongside Russian cosmonauts for nearly a year.

But he adds, NASA should prepare for the possibility that Russia might soon end its participation: "I think what they've shown us is they're capable of anything," he says.

For 23 years, the space station has floated above the politics of planet earth as a symbol of unity between several nations around the globe.

It launched largely as a U.S.-Russian project in 1998, when it seemed possible the two foes could make a new start. The station was designed so that each side literally needed the other to survive: The U.S. provides power, while Russia keeps the station at the correct altitude and orientation.

At the time "it was in the U.S. national interest to engage with Russia," says Mariel Borowitz, an associate professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The joint program kept Russian rocket scientists employed during a moment when Russia faced political and economic instability, she says.

Kelly notes that by depending solely on Russia systems for certain functions, NASA was able to save money.

In 2011, the interdependency grew even stronger. NASA retired the space shuttle, which regularly carried astronauts and supplies to the station. Without the shuttle, the space agency relied on Russia's space program to get its astronauts to the station. Kelly says the Russian program excelled at launching humans into orbit. "They can reliably put three people into space and bring them home," he says. "That's what they do very, very well."

For nearly a decade, the U.S. relied on Russia's Soyuz rockets to get its astronauts to the space station. NASA/Bill Ingalls/(NASA/Bill Ingalls) hide caption

For nearly a decade, the U.S. relied on Russia's Soyuz rockets to get its astronauts to the space station.

The U.S. may have needed a ride, but they also had plenty of what Russia's space agency required money.

NASA paid billions over the years for its seats aboard the Soyuz rocket, helping keep the venerable Russian space program financially afloat.

The symbiotic relationship has endured even as things on the Earth have deteriorated: Wars, assassination attempts and allegations of political meddling have not been enough to send the space station off course. But a mix of geopolitical and technical factors are now bringing rapid change to the collaboration.

In 2020, SpaceX officially began transporting NASA astronauts to the station, ending America's reliance on Russian rockets.

The end of that vital tie was big at the time, but it pales in comparison to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine. The war has strained almost every aspect of U.S. and Russian relations, and it has already ruptured another long-standing Russian collaboration with the European Space Agency, or ESA.

"There was ongoing cooperation between Europe and Russia on different things, and it's being severed," says Tomas Hrozensky, a research fellow at the European Space Policy Institute in Vienna, Austria. ESA has kicked Russia out of its lunar program, and a long-awaited European mission to Mars is suspended, because it was set to go to space later this year aboard a Russian rocket.

"As a consequence of the war in Ukraine, the member states of ESA have put significant sanctions on Russia," ESA's director general, Josef Aschbacher, said at a recent NASA press conference. The decision to suspend the rover mission "is painful" he conceded.

Russia's interest in Western collaboration has also cooled as the war has heated up.

In response to European sanctions, the country suspended Soyuz launches from ESA's spaceport in French Guiana. And late last month, the head of Russia's space agency, a prickly politician named Dmitry Rogozin, hinted that Russia may soon announce it will pull out of the space station.

"The decision has already been made," Rogozin said during an interview on Russian state television. "We aren't obligated to talk about it publicly. I can only say one thing: that in accordance with our obligations we will notify our partners a year in advance about the end of our work on the ISS."

NASA would like to keep the station running until 2030, but the Russian components are among the oldest parts and are only certified to operate until 2024, says Anatoly Zak, publisher of Russianspaceweb.com, a site that has long tracked the Russian space program. "Beyond that [date], Russia will need to make some additional investments and some political commitments," he says.

Both Zak and Borowitz say they're not sure how seriously to take Rogozin's threats of withdrawal. He has made similar statements in the past, Borowitz notes, but without the space station, or some kind of replacement, "they're going to be in a situation where their cosmonauts don't have a clear mission."

"It would be politically very costly for Russia not to have human spaceflight," Zak says. The space program "has a huge role in Russian propaganda and Russian politics."

Cosmonauts unfurled a Soviet-era victory banner on a recent space walk. The banner, which is used to mark "Victory Day" in Russia, has also been used frequently by Russian forces in Ukraine. Screenshot by NPR/Roscosmos Youtube hide caption

Cosmonauts unfurled a Soviet-era victory banner on a recent space walk. The banner, which is used to mark "Victory Day" in Russia, has also been used frequently by Russian forces in Ukraine.

Indeed the station has played a part in Russia's propaganda efforts around its latest war.

Soviet-era memorabilia has begun to appear in the Russian part of the station, Zak notes. And on a space walk in April, two cosmonauts unfurled a Soviet victory banner to celebrate Russia's "Victory Day" that marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. The banner has more recently been flown by Russian forces throughout Ukraine.

NASA astronaut Scott Kelly says the U.S. should start thinking about how to keep the station operating without the Russians. "It would be really really hard, but I think NASA is great at doing really, really hard things," he says.

Kelly, an outspoken opponent of Russia's actions in Ukraine, says he supports continuing to work together in space, for the time being.

But as the war grinds on and the allegations of atrocities grow, he says his views may change: "At some point, things like murdering innocent people, rape, genocide transcend the importance of space cooperation."

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Ukraine war strains space station ties between Russia and US - NPR