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Three months into his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is holding firm on his plantorestore Russian glory and protect his iron grip on power.

To understand why, it pays to understand hispast.

Things are not going to plan for Vladimir Putin.

The once-fearedRussian army has long since abandoned its goal of capturing Ukraine'scapital Kyiv,and it's been largely beaten back from the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv.

Moscow's tactics for its invasion havechanged it isnow solelyfocused on the ground war in the eastern Donbas region, and in the south.

In those areas, ithas managed to push its lines forwardbut the gains are incremental, often just a few kilometres at a time.

There has been no breakthrough.

Many experts classify the fighting now as little more than a standstill, with both sides braced for months of combat ahead.

No matter how you look at it, Putin's "special military operation"as he calls it is far from achieving the goals he spelled out at the beginning of the invasion in his televised address to thenation, and the world, on February 24.

"[The]goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years," Putinsaid.

"And for this, we will pursue the demilitarisation and 'de-nazification' of Ukraine."

As the world has witnessed, rather than laying down itsarms, Ukraine's armed forces and its civilians have mounted fierce resistance.

Three months into the war, estimating the scale of Russian losses is difficult the Kremlin hasn't released any figures for the pasttwo months.

Ukraine claims the current toll is now close to 30,000 Russian soldiers killed. Some Western intelligence sources suggest this number is too high. Yet Britain's Ministry of Defence estimates50,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded.

In a sign the losses are mounting, Russiais now considering scrapping the upper 40-year-old age limit for soldiers.

At home, Putin still talks of the "de-nazification" of Ukraine, but there's little prospect now of toppling the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Zelenskyyhassurvived attempts to kill him, and his government remains in Kyiv. His video addresseshave rallied Ukrainian support at home and around the world.

He's had visits from the White House,Downing Street and the UN the country even won last week's Eurovision song contest.

But Putin is showingno sign of weakening.He has acknowledged there will be painbut, according to the world of Vladimir,Russia will endure.

On VictoryDay earlier this month, the Russian President told his nation and the world his country had no choice but toact in Ukraine.

"The danger was rising by the day," he said in his speech onRed Square.

"Russia has given a pre-emptive response to an aggression [the] only correct decision by a sovereign, powerful and independent country".

Putin said Russian troops in Ukraine had been fighting for "the motherland".

"No-one will forget the lessons of World War II and there will be no place in the world for hangmen, executioners and the Nazis".

As international companies abandon the country, as the last vestiges of independent media disappear, as connections to Europe and the US are cut, Russia is bracing for more self-reliance an existencelargely isolated from the West.

It's a future Vladimir Putin is verycomfortable with.

It's much like the country that moulded his past: The USSR.

Amidst stories of Vladimir Putin's enormous personal wealth and power, it's worth remembering his childhood.

It was simple,typically Soviet, and there is no doubt it shaped him.

His father barely survived World War II and he was born after two older siblings had died.

The Putins lived in a shared "kommunalka" apartment in Leningrad, now StPetersburg. There was one stove and one toilet, shared by three families.

At the height of the Cold War in the sixties, most Soviet kids dreamed of becoming cosmonauts.

Not Vladimir Putin.

As journalist Masha Gessen writes in her biography of Putin, as a teenager he had a portrait of Yan Berzin, the founder of Soviet military intelligence, on his desk.

Putin himself enjoys telling the story of how he tried to join the KGB when he was just 16. They passed then, but he did find his way in after graduating from Leningrad State University.

It would be hard to describe his KGB career as stellar. Putin had studied Germanand his only international assignment was in Germany.

In 1985 he was posted not to East Berlin, where, as Masha Gessen points out, he could have actively recruited spies in the West, but instead went to Dresden, an industrial city in the heart of East Germany.

He was there when the Berlin Wall fell and the German Democratic Republic began to implode. Putin, his first wife and two daughters returned to Leningrad in 1990 as the Soviet Union itself was falling apart.

They moved back into one room in his parent'stwo-bedroom apartment in Leningrad.

But soon, his long climb up the political ladder would begin.

In 1990, at theage of 38, Putin became an adviser to the Mayor of StPetersburg and gradually became a power player in the city's administration.

Within just a few years, he was suspected of orchestrating a multi-million-dollar kickback schemebut he was never charged.

At this time, Putin started to learn some valuable lessons about how politics in the new Russia worked.

"His formative years were spent, essentially, as a deputy mayor in StPetersburg (formerly Leningrad), enriching himself off the backs of people who were going hungry," said Sydney-based journalistZoya Sheftalovich, a contributing editor for Politico Europe.

"There wasn't going to be any accountability as long as you kept people very, very close and as long as you maintained a system of corruption that kept the power at the top."

By 1996, he moved to the Kremlin.

His KGB background undoubtedly helped him move up the ranksand by 1998, he was running the FSB, the organisation that had succeeded the KGB after the USSR dissolved.

Putin was little known outside of the Kremlin when then-president Boris Yeltsin appointed him prime minister in 1999.

He was a compromise candidate, not seen as having much political ambition.

But manyspeculated his background in the security services was a big advantage.

Putin could provide stability after a period of economic chaos, as well asprotecting the financial gains Yelstin and those around him had made while they were in power.

Soon after his appointment, a series of apartment bombings swept Russia. Putin blamed Chechen terrorists, but many have suspected the blasts were actually the work of the FSB.

"All of a sudden, we saw these very mysterious bombings in Moscow apartment buildings that had quite interesting links to the FSB and all of a sudden we had to blame that on Chechnya," Sheftalovich said.

Putin talked tough and sentRussian troops to crush Chechnya's capital, Grozny. His popularity soared.

Relentless favourable coverage from Russia's state media pushed him to the top of a crowded field in the presidential election in 2000.

He easily won that election, receiving53 per centof the vote 23 per centmore than his nearest rival, the leader of the Communist Party.

Russia's first post-Soviet leader, Boris Yeltsin, had been widely ridiculed.

At times he appeared drunk and out of control in public. In the final years of his presidency, Russia's economy was in chaos.

Putin quickly set about building an image as the anti-Yeltsin. Bare-chested hunting trips. Judo competitions. Hardworking and deadly serious.

And the Russian public liked the image they were shown.

Initially, Putin sought to engage the West. In 2001, he addressed the German Bundestag in fluent German and spoke of Russia's place in Europe.

"I am convinced that today we are turning over a new page in our bilateral relations, thereby making our joint contribution to building a common European home," he said at the time.

Far from ridicule, Putin inspiredfear and respect.

In 2009, Australian James Blake was one of the few "Angliiski"or non-Russians allowed to be in the main Russia Today newsroom when Putin came to visit.

RT, as it's known, is the Kremlin's international news channel.

"There was considerable nervousness in the newsroom,"said Blake, who was RT's business editor at the time.

"I was amazed when someone spilled a cup of coffee on a patch of carpet not far from where I was sitting, and the entire patch was immediately replaced."

Despite days of preparation, what struck Blake was how brief the visit was; Putin was clearly uncomfortable in this kind of environment.

"He and [RT Editor Margarita Simonyan]spent all of about 90 seconds down at the front of the newsroom standing alongside the desk of one of the translators [then], no sooner was he there than he was gone.

"When I asked one of the Russian journalists I was with what she thought of proceedings she replied:'Heis a short man, but he has an energy.'"

Not long after the war in Ukrainebegan, so did the questions about Putin's hold on power.

There was speculation that powerful elements in the security services and the elites might decide the costs of the war were too high, particularly as Russia'sinvasion became bogged down and the economy felt the heavy impact of sanctions.

Some even predicted Putin would be ousted in a coup.

But three months into the war,his control in Moscow seems as strong as ever.

On Russian state media every night, audiences are fed hours of coverageportrayinga very different picture of the war one in which Ukraine is the aggressor and itstroops are the onescommitting war crimes.

Despite occasional public displays of opposition, Putin can still count on sizeable public support for the war

Behind the scenes, there has been plenty of intrigue as security services scramble to escape the fallout from the disastrous pre-war intelligence provided to the Kremlin.

But none of that appears to have threatened Putin's control.

A little more than a decade ago, there were real questions about whether or notVladimir Putin would voluntarily give up power.

In 2011, Putin had to decide whether he would again run for presidentafter spending one term as prime minister. Russia's constitution forbids more than two consecutive presidential terms, so in 2008 the Kremlin arranged a switch.

Deputy PM Dmitry Medvedev easily won the election as Russia's presidentand he appointed Putin as his prime minister.

I arrived as the ABC's correspondent in Moscow during this timeand witnessed this political charade play out.

Dmitry Medvedev was Russia's presidentbut everyone knew the real power had simply moved to the prime minister's office.

No one doubted Vladimir Putin was still running the country.

When Kutuzovsky Prospekt, the main road outside our office window, fell silent, that was the cue that in a few minutes Putin's convey would be speeding down the closed-off eight-lane street into the centre of Moscow.

But he wasn't heading to the Kremlin.

In the period from 2008-2012, the prime minister's office was in the "Russian White House", the Russian Federation Government House on the Moscow River.

The real power had followed Putin there.

As the decision whether to return to the presidency approached, the Arab Spring revolutions were sweeping the Middle East. The events deeply impacted Putin.

"Seeing the film footage of the Arab Spring was what caused him to essentially take power back because he didn't think he could trust Medvedev to keep his grip on power," said Sheftalovich.

"It's quite well known that he saw the mobile phone footage of [Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi]being captured and then tortured and killed.

"Apparently, according to those who were close to him, [he was] horrified by that footage.

"I think he saw that what was happening to Gaddafi could very well happen to him."

Sheftalovichlived in Ukraine until she was seven years old, when it was still part of the USSR. Her family immigrated to Australia in 1992.

For her, thefear of an Arab Spring-type revolution in Russiais oneof thedrivers behindPutin's war inUkraine.

And it'snot just NATO, she says,it's that Ukraine wason the path to becoming a successful, democratic country.

"I think for Putin, you don't want an example of a successful democracy right next door speaking your language."

From the Kremlin's viewpoint, if Ukraine could move to the West, so, theoretically, could Russia. And that would mean Putin and his entire power apparatus, all of their wealth and influence,would be dismantled.

Sheftalovich believes for those around Putin, there's no turning back.

"These people are not going to care about the lost lives and wanting to stop Putin for any sort of ideological reason," she said.

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Three months into his war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin wants to restore Russian glory and protect his iron grip on power - ABC News

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 11, 2022. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

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May 23 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Monday he was concerned about what he called moves by the West to "dismember" Ukraine, and accused Poland of seeking to seize the Western part of the country.

He offered no evidence for his assertions.

"What worries us is that they are ready, the Poles and NATO, to come out, to help take western Ukraine like it was before 1939," Lukashenko said during a televised meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin, said Kyiv would eventually have to ask for help in preventing the seizure of western Ukraine.

Moscow has in the past suggested that Poland seeks to establish control over historical Polish lands in Ukraine, a claim that Warsaw denies as disinformation. read more

Poland is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters, sending weapons across the border and taking in more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees.

Belarus said in March its armed forces were not taking part in what Moscow calls its "special operation" in Ukraine, but it did serve as a launchpad for Russia to send thousands of troops across the border on Feb. 24.

Under a non-aggression pact signed in 1939 just before the outbreak of World War Two, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union carved Poland up between them. Most of the territory seized by Moscow is now in either Belarus or Ukraine. Kaliningrad, formerly German East Prussia, became an exclave of Russia.

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Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Angus MacSwan

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Lukashenko accuses Poland and NATO of plotting to partition Ukraine - Reuters

People leave the aid camp at the Poland-Ukraine border in Medyka, Poland. Adam Lach for NPR hide caption

People leave the aid camp at the Poland-Ukraine border in Medyka, Poland.

MEDYKA, Poland On a warm, windy day in the middle of May, Harry Scrymgeour is hard at work breaking down a humanitarian relief tent that helped thousands of Ukrainians during the height of Europe's refugee crisis.

"Of course, the sort of great joy in tearing down this camp is that it has been useful. It is no longer useful," Scrymgeour says.

That's because the flow of refugees from Ukraine has actually reversed at the Polish border crossing in Medyka, where his group is based, with more people now going into Ukraine than out.

Scrymgeour is part of Siobhan's Trust, a small Scottish charity named after his late mother. They have been here since the start of the war, back when temperatures were below freezing and the refugee intake was high.

Harry Scrymgeour works at a humanitarian relief tent, part of Siobhan's Trust, a small Scottish charity named after his late mother. Adam Lach for NPR hide caption

During the peak of the crisis, 1,500 Ukrainians were crossing into Poland every hour at Medyka, and humanitarian workers rushed to the Polish side of the border to help.

Today, Siobhan's Trust receives more requests for pizza from other aid workers passing the time than refugees themselves. And in response, people like Scrymgeour, and another aid group Humanity First U.K., are adapting new strategies.

Three days after the war began, Humanity First U.K. set up medical tents on both sides of the Poland-Ukraine border. Back then, they would provide around-the-clock medical care. These days, the tent is filled with more staff than patients.

"We're not seeing as much of the medical influx that we used to," says Dr. Aziz Hafiz, the chairman of Humanity First U.K.

Aid organizations provide food for refugees coming from Ukraine at the border in Medyka, Poland. Adam Lach for NPR hide caption

They have treated more than 26,000 people since the war started, and while they are still helping some refugees, they have shifted focus to supporting their efforts inside Ukraine, where they provide medication to orphanages and hospitals.

Because while the scene at Medyka is one of relative calm, the violence and death continues in the south and east of Ukraine as Russia now focuses its attack there. More than 6 million people have left Ukraine since the war began, and another 6 million or so are displaced within the country.

"So it's essentially a base point until the war is over," Hafiz says of Medyka, "Where we can actually then shift camp into cities and villages where needed."

The location next to the border is convenient for his team to cross and deliver medical supplies, while also still treating issues like cardiac arrest, diabetes and high blood pressure from those who do leave Ukraine.

Dr. Aziz Hafiz is the chairman of Humanity First U.K. Adam Lach for NPR hide caption

"People that have become refugees do not have their basic medical supplies that they will usually carry with them," Hafiz says.

"There's a lot of tooing and froing, as families are struggling to juggle lives on both sides."

Back at Siobhan's Trust, volunteers dish out coffee and churn out the last few pizzas before they shut down their tent at Medyka and turn elsewhere.

"We wanted to keep this alive just in case we could react to a new wave of refugees that might need our help," Scrymgeour says. "But right now, all our resources are going towards delivering food to places where there are refugees who are going to be there for the medium time."

Volunteers from the World Central Kitchen prepare food for Ukrainian refugees crossing the Polish border in Medyka, Poland. Adam Lach for NPR hide caption

For Siobhan's Trust, this isn't the end of the war or their ability to help it's the start of the next phase that could continue for months or even years to come.

Read more from the original source:
Aid groups plan for the next phase as the flow of refugees leaving Ukraine slows - NPR

What starts as a simple walk through the countryside quickly turns into a scene out of Dantes Infierno. While it may seem like just another of the many forests that surround Kyiv, it is the site of one of the Russian armys greatest defeats in Ukraine. Not only did the Kremlins troops fail to take the Ukrainian capital after the February 24 invasion, but on the night of March 27, they were the victims of a fierce counterattack. At 11pm, according to some locals, the local Ukrainian army destroyed part of the huge camp that the invaders had set up between the towns of Bucha and Borodianka.

The bombing was so intense it wiped out everything within a 200- to 300-meter radius. There is no information on how many Russian soldiers were deployed at the camp, but based on its size it spread over numerous hectares it could have been home to thousands of troops. None of the locals in the area know how many of the soldiers died in the shelling or in the explosions caused by the strike. It seems that corpses are the only thing authorities have taken away.

At the beginning of the track leading to the site, there are traces of civilization. One might think it is trash left behind by campers: a boot, a piece of plastic, a piece of clothing, food scraps... A few hundred meters ahead, the scene changes and its obvious that no camper could have been responsible for such wreckage. Its also clear this is no place for a leisurely stroll. Several signs nailed to the edge of the path warn of the possible presence of mines.

Huge trenches the size of garages begin to appear one after the other. The ramps leading into them suggest that they were used to camouflage vehicles. Some of these holes, covered with logs and branches, have been turned into underground bunkers. Some still even have sleeping mats in them. There are also hut-like structures, made from branches and tarpaulin, which look like they could have been used for toilets. There are more clothes and boots, makeshift clotheslines, green wooden and metal boxes. These contain ammunition. Through the pine trees, the first burned-out military vehicle appears. Its difficult to conceive what nature is hiding ahead.

There is no trace of human life, only death. Two sticks tied together to make a cross are placed over a grave. It belongs to a Russian soldier, says Slava, a local who is acting as a guide. Further on, there are six empty graves next to what appear to be the remains of other makeshift crosses. These were Ukrainians and they were dug up, he adds. These victims got a second, less undignified farewell. After a while, Slava says that the worst of the destruction is coming up. Slava takes a certain pride in being able to show proof of the Russian defeat, announcing it as though telling tourists at the cathedral of Notre Dame that they were about to see the main attraction, the temples famous gargoyles.

But first, there are washing machines, television sets and other household appliances that have been devoured by the flames. These are the remains of what Russians were stealing from houses and left behind, says Slava with a touch of hatred. Other locals from villages under Russian occupation also say that Russian troops looted their homes, sometimes even robbing clothes to combat the harsh winter weather and morsels of food to drive away their hunger.

Food, however, did reach this forest camp. Remnants of individual rations with the Russian Army logo on the package can be seen strewn about. There is even a copy of Russias official government newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda or Red Star from Friday, March 18. Vladimir Putin: We will fight for the right to be and continue being Russia, is the main headline on the front page, which appears next to a photograph of President Vladimir Putin. Other articles in the newspaper speak of Goebbels-style Western fabrications and the historical roots of Ukrainian Nazism.

Up ahead, the attack has left a circular clearing in the woods. Some of the trees are burned out, others are split in half or splintered almost artistically. And just a short walk on, the scene turns into something from a war movie.

Strewn across the forest are the charred remains of dozens of trucks and other vehicles. Some are a hunk of scrap metal. Others are more recognizable, but have been hit so hard by the shelling that light passes through them like water through a sieve. Ammunition and shells of all calibers are scattered across the ground, as well as documentation that miraculously escaped the flames, the remains of uniforms, burnt metal trunks...

Russian forces had razed this area to the ground and occupied it for a month. When Putin failed to seize control of Kyiv, the troops prepared to withdraw at the end of March. But a bitter farewell awaited them. It was in the midst of these preparations, on March 27, when the Russian troops were met with a fierce counterattack. According to Slava, it lit up the night as if it were daytime.

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Ground zero of one of the Russian armys greatest defeats in Ukraine - EL PAS in English

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Russias invasion of Ukraine has roiled global food and energy markets, exposing nearly a fifth of humanity to supply disruptions and the risks of poverty and hunger, UN chief Antonio Guterres warned on Wednesday.

The UN Secretary General said the invasion was supercharging a three-dimensional crisis food, energy and finance that is pummelling some of the worlds most vulnerable people.

He spoke as Russian forces continued shelling Ukrainian towns and cities in a war that began on February 24, killing thousands, hitting exports from breadbasket regions and prompting harsh sanctions against Moscow from mostly western nations.

We are now facing a perfect storm that threatens to devastate the economies of developing countries, Mr Guterres told reporters in New York.

As many as 1.7 billion people one third of whom are already living in poverty are now highly exposed to disruptions in food, energy and finance systems that are triggering increases in poverty and hunger.

A 22-page report released on Wednesday by the UNs Global Crisis Response Group said 36 countries import more than half of their wheat from the breadbasket regions of Russia and Ukraine, where fighting has stopped farmers from planting crops.

They include many struggling and conflict-riven economies across the Middle East and Africa, including Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria, as well as wealthy importers in the oil-rich Gulf, such as Qatar and the UAE.

The British charity Oxfam said this week that Palestinian stockpiles of wheat could run out in three weeks because of 25 per cent price increases.

The group's country director Shane Stevenson said many Palestinians were struggling to meet their basic needs".

Wheat prices have jumped by 30 per cent since the start of the year and fertiliser prices have doubled, the UN report says. Oil prices have surged by 60 per cent compared with last year, while natural gas prices have jumped by 50 per cent in recent months.

As prices climb, so does hunger and malnutrition especially for young children, said Mr Guterres.

Children play with a therapeutic dog at a shelter organised by volunteers in Zaporizhzhya, Ukraine. Reuters

The study, titled the Global Impact of War in Ukraine on Food, Energy and Finance Systems, says many developing economies are being battered a second time after the ravaging effects of the coronavirus pandemic, supply line chaos and lockdowns.

Many developing economies are drowning in debt, with bond yields already on the rise since last September, leading to increased risk premiums and exchange rate pressures, said Mr Guterres.

This is setting in motion a potential vicious circle of inflation and stagnation.

Governments need to work together on keeping a lid on prices with a steady flow of food and energy through open markets and the lifting of export restrictions, said the former prime minister of Portugal.

Countries must resist hoarding, and release strategic stockpiles and additional reserves of food and energy, while shifting their economies to cleaner, renewable energy and supporting debt relief plans at this months World Bank meetings, he added.

The report makes no mention of the crippling economic sanctions that the US, Europe and others have imposed on Russia since it invaded Ukraine, which Moscow says is really to blame for supply shocks and inflation.

Above all, this war must end, said Mr Guterres.

The people of Ukraine cannot bear the violence being inflicted on them. And the most vulnerable people around the globe cannot become collateral damage in yet another disaster for which they bear no responsibility.

Updated: April 13, 2022, 4:01 PM

Originally posted here:
UN: Economic turmoil from Ukraine invasion hitting 1.7 ...