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A demonstrator, holding a Ukrainian flag, participates in a demonstration called by 70 associations in support of Ukraine on the square of Paris' town hall on Thursday. It has been three weeks since Russia began its assault on Ukraine. Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A demonstrator, holding a Ukrainian flag, participates in a demonstration called by 70 associations in support of Ukraine on the square of Paris' town hall on Thursday. It has been three weeks since Russia began its assault on Ukraine.

When the invasion of Ukraine began three weeks ago, many thought it would end quickly because of Russia's military strength. But as the war drags on and Ukraine digs in, two questions are increasingly being asked: Can Ukraine win this war, and what will it take?

While Russia has occupied the southern city of Kherson, Ukraine's military and civilians have prevented the Russian army from taking control of other major cities. Russia has also suffered significant casualties, with conservative estimates putting it at more than 7,000 troop deaths, according to The New York Times.

The reason for Russia's lack of battlefield success started before the invasion began and can be attributed to systemic issues, including corruption and poor training, and bad assumptions, said Steven Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Horrell, also a former U.S. naval intelligence officer, thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin saw the attack on Ukraine unfolding in a vastly different way.

"I think Putin truly believed the things that he said about the Ukrainian people welcoming them," Horrell told NPR. "They just failed to understand that the Ukrainian armed forces of 2022 are far different from the Ukrainian armed forces of 2014 when they annexed Crimea and began their adventures in eastern Ukraine."

A member of a Territorial Defense unit practices putting on a tourniquet at a defensive position on the outskirts of Kyiv on Thursday. Chris McGrath/Getty Images hide caption

A member of a Territorial Defense unit practices putting on a tourniquet at a defensive position on the outskirts of Kyiv on Thursday.

Those previous incursions by Russia provided Ukrainians with training by fire and allowed them to identify and adjust to shortfalls quickly, Horrell said, adding that Russia was also struggling with logistical problems this time around.

With all these factors in mind, Horrell said Russia could "certainly fail," either in terms of strategic objectives, defeat on the battlefield, or both.

Russia wants to control Ukraine and have it be a non-Western leaning state, but Horrell said the Ukrainian people had shown that the invasion alone would not eliminate their Western ideals. And, he said, they would not accept a president who was chosen by Russia.

"That is almost zero chance of occurring now," Horrell said. "And for Ukraine ... you would define victory as the complete expulsion of the Russian invaders, not just this recent invasion, but to get the borders back to 2014 before Crimea was illegally annexed."

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges serves as the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at CEPA and said that based on his experience and the reports of Russian ammunition and manpower shortages, the war may culminate in the next week.

"The time challenge for Russia is not just military," Hodges wrote in his analysis on Tuesday. "The effects of sanctions are growing Russia may soon default on $150 billion of foreign currency debt and Russian domestic resentment is also growing."

Hodges said the U.S. and other Western powers needed to move with "urgency" to offer more support against Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the U.S. Congress by video to plead for support as his country continues to defend itself from an ongoing Russian invasion. J. Scott Applewhite/Pool/Getty Images hide caption

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the U.S. Congress by video to plead for support as his country continues to defend itself from an ongoing Russian invasion.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional $800 million worth of security assistance for Ukraine on Tuesday bringing the total amount of aid in the past week alone to $1 billion.

Blinken said the additional funding would be used for things like "anti-aircraft, anti-tank, and anti-armor systems as well as small arms and munitions used by Ukrainian security forces on the ground right now in the fight to defend their country."

But what the U.S. and NATO remain opposed to is instituting a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That is something that former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch believes should remain an option.

"I think that has to be on the table. But I also think there are other ways of doing a no-fly zone," Yovanovitch told NPR. "I think we have lots of smart people at the Pentagon that can figure out ways to do this in a way that is less risky."

Russia may prevail militarily, but there will be a resistance, and it will be an ugly one for any Russians that are attempting to impose their will on Ukraine.

Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine

Ultimately though, Yovanovitch said she believed Ukraine would win the war.

"Russia may prevail militarily, but there will be a resistance, and it will be an ugly one for any Russians that are attempting to impose their will on Ukraine," Yovanovitch said.

"I think that there's going to be not only a guerrilla war, but there's going to be civil resistance where, you know, people get poisoned when they go to the restaurant, sharpshooters are on roofs picking off Russian soldiers. It's going to be long and ugly, but this is a people that fights back."

But an incomplete victory for Ukraine is another potential outcome of this war. Horrell said this is a scenario that would end in a "frozen conflict" if Russia still held Crimea and the Russian-led separatist areas of eastern Ukraine.

"In one sense, that's a success for Russia in that it gets an anchor dragging Ukraine down, both in terms of economic advancement and full realization of their national potential," he said. "But also, that's the sort of thing that keeps a country out of the E.U. and out of NATO."

"At this point, though, with the success we've seen in three weeks [of Ukraine defending itself], is that even acceptable terms for Ukraine? I think it may not be."

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Could Ukraine win and Russia lose the war? Here's how it might unfold - NPR

Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared at a huge flag-waving rally at a Moscow stadium and praised his countrys troops in biblical terms Friday as they pressed their lethal attacks on Ukrainian cities with shelling and missiles.

Shoulder to shoulder, they help and support each other, Putin said of Moscows forces in a rare public appearance since the invasion three weeks ago that made Russia an outcast among nations and triggered antiwar protests at home. We have not had unity like this for a long time, he added to cheers from the crowd.

Moscow police said more than 200,000 people were in and around the Luzhniki stadium for the celebration marking the eighth anniversary of Russias annexation of the Crimean peninsula, seized from Ukraine.

The event included patriotic songs, including a performance of Made in the U.S.S.R., with the opening lines Ukraine and Crimea, Belarus and Moldova, its all my country.

Seeking to portray the war as just, Putin paraphrased the Bible to say of Russias troops: There is no greater love than giving up ones soul for ones friends. And he continued to insist his actions were necessary to prevent genocide, a claim flatly denied by leaders around the globe.

Standing on stage in a white turtleneck and a blue down jacket, Putin spoke for about five minutes. Some people, including presenters at the event, wore T-shirts or jackets with a Z a symbol seen on Russian tanks and other military vehicles in Ukraine and embraced by supporters of the war.

His quoting of the Bible and a Russian admiral of the 18th century reflected his increasing focus in recent years on history and religion as binding forces in Russias post-Soviet society.

Video feeds of the event showed a loudly cheering, flag-waving crowd that broke into chants of Russia!

Several Telegram channels critical of the Kremlin reported that students and employees of state institutions in a number of regions were ordered by their superiors to attend rallies and concerts marking the Crimea anniversary. Those reports could not be independently verified.

In the wake of the invasion, the Kremlin has cracked down harder on dissent and the flow of information, arresting thousands of antiwar protesters, banning sites such as Facebook and Twitter, and instituting tough prison sentences for what is deemed to be false reporting on the war, which Moscow refers to as a special military operation.

The OVD-Info rights group that monitors political arrests reported that at least seven independent journalists had been detained ahead of or while covering the anniversary events in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The rally came as Russian troops continued to pound the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and launched a barrage of missiles on the outskirts of the western city of Lviv.

The early morning attack on Lvivs edge was the closest strike yet to the center of the city, which has become a crossroads for people fleeing from other parts of Ukraine and for others entering to deliver aid or fight. The war has swelled Lvivs population by some 200,000.

In city after city around Ukraine, hospitals, schools and buildings where people sought safety have been attacked. Rescue workers continued to search for survivors in the ruins of a theater that was being used a shelter when it was blasted by a Russian airstrike Wednesday in the besieged southern city of Mariupol.

Ludmyla Denisova, the Ukrainian Parliaments human rights commissioner, said at least 130 people had survived the theater bombing.

But according to our data, there are still more than 1,300 people in these basements, in this bomb shelter, Denisova told Ukrainian television. We pray that they will all be alive, but so far there is no information about them.

At Lviv, black smoke billowed for hours after the explosions, which hit a facility for repairing military aircraft near the citys international airport, 6 kilometers (4 miles) from the center. One person was wounded, the regional governor, Maksym Kozytskyy, said.

Blasts hit in quick succession around 6 a.m., shaking nearby buildings, witnesses said. The missiles were launched from the Black Sea. Ukraine said it had shot down two of six missile in the volley.

Lviv is close to the Polish border and well behind the main lines of battle, but the area has not been spared Russias attacks. In the worst, nearly three dozen people were killed last weekend in a strike on a military training base near the city.

Early morning barrages also hit a residential building in the Podil neighborhood of Kyiv, killing at least one person, according to emergency services, who said 98 people were evacuated from the building. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 19 were wounded in the shelling.

Two others were killed when strikes hit residential and administrative buildings in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, according to the regional governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko.

The fighting has led nearly 3.3 million people to flee Ukraine, the U.N. estimates. The death toll remains unknown, though thousands of civilians and soldiers on both sides are believed to have been killed.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraines defenses have proved much stronger than expected, and Russia didnt know what we had for defense or how we prepared to meet the blow.

The World Health Organization said it has confirmed 43 attacks on hospitals and health facilities, with 12 people killed.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that American officials are examining possible war crimes and that if the intentional targeting of civilians by Russia is confirmed, there will be massive consequences.

The U.N. political chief, Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo, also called for an investigation into civilian casualties. She said many of the daily attacks battering Ukrainian cities are reportedly indiscriminate and involve the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area.

About 35,000 civilians left Mariupol over the previous two days, authorities said Friday.

Both Ukraine and Russia this week reported some progress in negotiations. Earlier this week, an official in Zelenskyys office, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, told The Associated Press that Ukraine was prepared to discuss a neutral status for the country in return, in part, for binding security guarantees.

Russia has demanded that NATO pledge never to admit Ukraine to the alliance or station forces there.

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Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, and other AP journalists around the world contributed to this report.

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Follow the APs coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Excerpt from:
Putin appears at big rally as troops press attack in Ukraine - The Associated Press - en Espaol

Alexander Serdyuk has stopped talking to his mother. He is nervously watching war edge ever closer to his home in Lviv. She is 1,500 miles (2,400km) to the east in Russia, denying that any of it is actually happening.

I cant speak with her, says the 34-year-old Russian who moved to Ukraine 10 years ago. She doesnt understand me. She says its just Nazis killing each other, and that we are responsible for all this.

She just doesnt believe me, he adds. We used to speak with each other a lot, but now theres just no point.

Its the same for Natasha Henova. She has already fled her home near Kharkiv with her young sons and husband, as the bombs crept ever closer to their village. When she called a cousin who lives near Moscow to update her, however, the conversation was almost as upsetting as the war itself.

She is sympathetic but says that we are being lied to, says Henova, a 35-year-old English language tutor. She says its all Americas doing. I say OK, but why are Russians hitting us if its all about America? She says Ukrainians have been so cruel to people in the Donbas.

She said Ukrainian soldiers must surrender. She even invited me to come to Russia to be with her. I didnt know whether to laugh or cry. Im desperately struggling here to keep Ukraine independent and she invites me to go to Russia.

As Russias war in Ukraine enters its fourth week, an information war between people on both sides of the border is intensifying. The military onslaught is not just demolishing residential buildings and city centres in Ukraine; it is sorely testing myriad familial cross-border ties that have endured for decades, centuries even.

While people in Ukraine can see with their own eyes what is happening to their country, people in Russia do so only through the house of mirrors that is state television, and when those cowering in bunkers send videos and messages about their plight, many (but not all) of the recipients simply dismiss it as fake news.

Natalia Ivanivna has Russian parents and grandparents, so when the 62-year-old accountant had to flee Kharkiv earlier this month for a village in western Ukraine, there were plenty of relatives whom she wanted to alert. Fifteen minutes after the shelling started, I sent them a series of messages: We are being bombed. The first question they asked me: Who is doing the bombing our army or yours?

Ivanivna says she believes it is fear as much as ignorance that shapes the worldview across the border. I think they are scared of Putins regime, as much as my parents were scared of Stalins. Now they just dont reply. I dont have anger towards them; I just feel sorry for them.

So pervasive and persuasive is Russian television, that even some people in eastern Ukraine who watch it were taken in by its version of events.

Maria Kryvosheyeva, who fled Kharkiv with her two children, has a grandmother who stayed behind, too frail to travel. She used to only watch Russian television, Kryvosheyeva says, and when the war started I noticed she was very calm. She was like, Dont worry. Putin said everything is OK.

She changed her tune when Russian forces started bombing Kharkiv. We turned over to Ukrainian television, which was showing everything, all the destroyed buildings. But Russian TV was showing webcam videos from days earlier and was telling people that everything was normal in Kharkiv. My grandmother started to cry. She said: I cant believe Ive been brainwashed all these years.

About half of Ukrainians more than 20 million people have family in Russia, according to a 2011 survey which also found that a third of Ukrainians had friends or acquaintances there. Familial interchange between the two countries has been prolific for centuries, from the early days of empire in the 17th century, through the late Soviet period and into the age of independence, says Orysia Lutsevych, a research fellow at Chatham House.

Remember, Moscow was always the metropolis of the empire, she says, explaining why so many Ukrainians moved east over the past 300-plus years. It was an attractive place for people who wanted to make a career. The similarity of the language meant it was easy to go and study there. The best institutes were there, so it was very prestigious to go.

Russians and Ukrainians living in other countries also feel infuriated with the denialism that seems to have infected their relatives. The kind of things they hear include: the war footage is fake; Nazis are running amok; Ukrainians should stay indoors or the fascists will get them.

Natasha, a UK-based Russian who didnt want her surname published, has a Ukrainian father and Russian mother who both now live in western Siberia. Her fathers family are from Vinnytsia, in Ukraine, however, and some of them have already fled to Poland. Natasha asked her dad if hed spoken to his brother. Her father said yes and that everything was fine though he couldnt hear much through the air raid sirens.

I said to him, How can everything be fine if there are air raid sirens? How is that OK?

She says her mother parrots Russian television, about the suffering of Russian people in eastern Ukraine and the need to protect them.

But this sounds mad to me, Natasha says, because my family is Russian-speaking and they are fleeing to Poland.

When I ask my mother if shes seen the images, the footage, and whats happening in the cities, she says they are all fake, Natasha adds. Its so frustrating not to be able to have this conversation. Im really disappointed that she believes the president instead of me.

Some of this might be generational. Natasha says the older generation grew up through the Soviet period believing that the west was against them, that the only people they could trust were their own leadership. She says there is a deep Russian sense of being the greatest nation on Earth, with the richest resources, a survivor race that can get through anything. Of course they are going to believe what they have been told.

Forgiveness may take a long time. Lutsevych says there is a very strong sense of we will not forget in Ukraine, a determination that when the bombs have stopped falling, war crimes must be punished and people held accountable. She says it will probably take a truth and reconciliation process similar to what happened in South Africa after apartheid for families to be able to speak to each other again.

Artur Kolomiitsev, a 28-year-old photographer sticking it out in Kharkiv, is not sure he can forgive. His parents in Russia are understanding, he says, but his aunts, uncles, cousins and grandmother less so.

They dont believe this war is real. They believe we are bombing ourselves and that our government is on drugs, he says. If one day I were to send them a picture of a missile hitting me in the head, maybe only then would they believe me. I dont want to see them any more. I dont want to talk to them any more. I will never forgive them.

Despite losing job, home and peace of mind, Natasha Henova doesnt want to lose touch with her younger cousin, who was clearly also a close friend through their formative years.

Maybe when its all over, maybe in a few years, if my family stays alive, maybe Ill be able to forgive her and understand her.

Read more here:
They dont believe its real: how war has split Ukrainian-Russian families - The Guardian

Russia announced on Thursday that it would not hold a vote on its resolution calling for a "negotiated ceasefire" to evacuate civilians, after other world leaders condemned the scope and language of the proposal. Russia's resolution did not mention stopping its attack on Ukraine, and did not respond to the General Assembly resolution that overwhelmingly called for Russian forces to withdraw.

The U.S., U.K., France, and other nations had all spoken out against Russia's resolution, with Albania's ambassador calling it a "mockery" on Thursday.

Instead, Russia's Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said at an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting that Russia would have a meeting of the Council on Friday to discuss what he said was "new evidence" of U.S.-supported biological and chemical laboratories in Ukraine. The U.S. has flatly denied those allegations, and has warned the rhetoric could signal that Russia plans to use those types of weapons in Ukraine.

Biden's U.N. envoy, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, celebrated the decision not to vote on what she called a "farcical humanitarian resolution which was doomed to fail." But Thomas-Greenfield said Russia's decision to pull the vote says nothing about its commitment to ending the humanitarian crisis.

"We know if Russia really truly cared about humanitarian crises, the one that it created, it could simply stop its attacks on the people of Ukraine," she said. "But instead, they want to call for another Security Council meeting to use this Council as a venue for its disinformation and for promoting its propaganda."

Albania's Ambassador Ferit Hoxha said that during the Friday meeting, he expects "Russia will try to make its narrative, we'll try to establish facts."

When asked by CBS News if he thought the meeting would be a pretext for Russia using chemical weapons, Hoxha replied, "I hope not. But that is the fear."

The Russian ambassador's remarks came after U.N. agencies and the U.S. shared gripping accounts of what several Council members called "war crimes" that intentionally targeted civilians.

Thomas-Greenfield pledged that "Russia will be held accountable for its atrocities."

"There is only one way one way to end this madness," Thomas-Greenfield said. "President Putin: Stop the killings. Withdraw your forces. Leave Ukraine once and for all."

At the meeting, Thomas-Greenfield recounted reports of a mass grave in the southern port city of Mariupol, which she described as "a narrow trench filled with the bodies of children."

On Monday, aerial video showed the once-thriving city in ruins, with charred remains of buildings and reports of more than 2,000 civilians killed.

Thomas-Greenfield condemned Russia's weeks-long offensive, telling diplomats that "Ukraine will never be a victory for Putin no matter what advances he makes, no matter whom he kills or what cities he destroys."

On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials accused Russia of striking and completely annihilating a theater in Mariupol, marked with the word "children" in large Russian writing, where "hundreds" of civilians were sheltering. There is hope that many of those in the theater's bomb shelter survived.

Russia's ambassador to the U.N. denied that Russia was responsible for the theater attack at the Thursday meeting.

China's U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun called for a re-upping of support for a diplomatic solution, but made it clear that China is opposed to the sanctions that the U.S. and Europe have placed on the Russian Federation and on Russian nationals, warning that sanctions can spark "new humanitarian consequences."

"Given the sluggish recovery in the global economy, ever-escalating sanctions are undermining the stability of the international industrial chain and supply chain, thus exacerbating food and energy crises, damaging people's livelihood in all countries, developing countries in particular, and triggering new humanitarian consequences," Zhang said.

But despite widespread hope for a diplomatic solution, U.N. officials said civilians are still being attacked and aid deliveries are being blocked.

"Daily attacks continue to batter Ukrainian cities. Many are reportedly indiscriminate, resulting in civilian casualties," Undersecretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo told the Council. DiCarlo said the U.N. Development agency "projects that 90% of the Ukrainian population could be facing poverty and extreme economic vulnerability should the war continue, setting the country and the region back decades, and leaving deep social and economic scars."

The Security Council also heard from World Health Organization Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said that his agency "has verified 43 attacks" on health care facilities.

"The war in Ukraine is having devastating consequences for the health of Ukraine's people, consequences that will reverberate for years or decades to come," he said.

Ghebreyesus said that some desperately-needed medical supplies cannot be delivered because of the fighting. He said the organization has sent approximately 100 metric tons of supplies including oxygen, insulin, surgical supplies, anesthetics, and blood transfusion kits and that while the WHO has established supply lines from Lviv to many cities in Ukraine, "challenges with access remain."

"We have critical supplies ready for U.N. joint convoys to enter difficult areas, but so far we have not been successful," Ghebreyesus said. "Today, for example, the U.N. convoy to Sumy that included a WHO truck carrying critical medical supplies was unable to enter."

"Loads ready for Mariupol remain in staging areas and cannot proceed," he added.

The U.K.'s Ambassador to the U.N., Barbara Woodward, said Russian forces "are making no distinction between military targets and women and children."

Woodward also criticized Russia for "cynically almost obscenely" proposing a resolution that calls for a "negotiated ceasefire" while still "committing war crimes."

Though other parts of the U.N. have been working in Ukraine to help citizens and refugees, the Security Council has not been able to enact any enforceable measures due to Russia's veto-wielding power.

France and Mexico are currently revising their draft to present to the General Assembly, where, as Ireland's Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason said on Tuesday, "there are no vetoes" and there is strong support to condemn Russia's actions.

Pamela Falk is the CBS News correspondent covering the United Nations, and an international lawyer.

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Russia declines to hold U.N. vote on its Ukraine resolution after facing pushback, China opposes global sanctions - CBS News

Russias war on Ukraine has entered a fourth week, as increasingly harsh rhetoric from Western powers towards Russian President Vladimir Putin fails to stop attacks in several cities.

It is near impossible to verify how many civilians have been killed so far. According to the United Nations, more than 600 have died but the real figure is feared to be higher.

Reports say thousands of soldiers on both sides have also died.

Meanwhile, Russia-Ukraine talks aiming for a peaceful solution continue as reports grow of Russias military becoming bogged down.

How might the situation develop from here? Here are five scenarios:

Ukrainian forces are still resisting Russias invasion, inflicting serious equipment and human losses.

Crucially, they repelled an attempt by paratroopers to seize the capital Kyiv in the opening days of the conflict and have since withdrawn to defensive positions that have enabled them to keep control over all strategic cities.

Although Russia has long claimed it has air superiority, Ukraines air defences appear to be still working, while Western countries are pouring in portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.

The Russian invasion has largely stalled on all fronts, an update from the UK defence ministry said on Thursday.

But in an interview with Al Jazeera, Frank Ledwidge, senior lecturer in military capabilities and strategy at the University of Portsmouth, said Whats happened here is that the Russian attack has, in military terms, culminated.

Theyve gone as far as they can with the logistics and weaponry they brought into the country that doesnt necessarily mean its stalled, he said.

What were seeing now is whats called an operational pause as they start to get, in colloquial terms, their act together, which they have not had largely due to very poor planning assumptions in the early part of the campaign.

So theyd be working frantically to try to get weapons and get their planning sorted out and to understand where does it go next. And of course, Ukrainians have a say in that, which is why we are starting to see counterattacks by Ukrainian armed forces that seem to be having some effect.

United States intelligence estimates that 7,000 Russian troops have died, The New York Times reported although experts say that all such claims should be treated with caution.

US President Joe Biden announced a massive new package of military aid for Ukraine on Wednesday, including 100 Switchblade kamikaze drones and thousands more missiles.

Ukrainian military resistance comes at a high civilian cost, however, with thousands dead and towns devastated such as Mariupol and Kherson.

Negotiators from both sides began talking just days after the war started, first on the Belarus-Ukraine border, then in Turkey and later in Kyiv.

Mounting battlefield losses and crippling Western sanctions on the Russian economy could be pushing Putin to seek a face-saving way to end the conflict.

Ukraine may be able to compel the Russians to make a choice: to persist and suffer irreparable losses, or desist and achieve some compensatory peace, AFP news agency quoted Rob Johnson, a warfare expert at the University of Oxford, as writing this week.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday that the two sides were close to agreeing on a deal that would see Ukraine accept neutrality modelled on the status of Sweden and Austria.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already publicly acknowledged that his country will not join the Western NATO military alliance a key demand from the Kremlin.

But though the chances of a deal have grown significantly in recent days, there is no sign of a ceasefire and Ukraine wants a full Russian withdrawal and security guarantees about its future.

Some Putin critics suspect that the diplomacy is a smokescreen.

Reminder that to Putin ceasefire just means reload, dissident Russian politician and former chess champion Garry Kasparov wrote on Twitter.

Putin is tightening his grip over Russian society. A crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has cemented the dominance of the ultra-loyal Russian state media.

Thousands of anti-war demonstrators have been arrested, while a new law threatens up to 15 years in jail for spreading fake news about the army.

There are signs of cracks in the ruling elite, with some oligarchs, MPs, and even private oil group Lukoil calling openly for a ceasefire or an end to the fighting.

A Russian editor held up a sign saying No War during a prime-time news broadcast on state TV this week.

Though not seen as likely at this stage, the possibility of Putin being brought down in a popular backlash or even a palace coup cannot be ruled out.

His personal security is very good and it will be very good until the moment it isnt, said Eliot A Cohen from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank.

Thats happened numerous times in Soviet and Russian history.

Given Russias superior weapons, air power and indiscriminate use of artillery, Western defence analysts say its forces are capable of grinding forward.

A senior European military official cautioned on Wednesday against underestimating their ability to replenish and adapt their tactics.

They appear to have logistical and morale problems, with diesel and even engine lubricants in short supply, the official said.

But you need to keep it in perspective. All of that does not change the superiority of the Russian military, he said.

Moscow is openly recruiting mercenaries from Syria to supplement its forces, while also using the Wagner Group, a shadowy Russian private security company.

But even if they captured strategic cities such as Kyiv or the southern port of Odesa, Putin would then face the challenge of occupying them.

Russia has a border with three former Soviet states that are now members of the US-led NATO military alliance, which considers an attack on one member to be an attack against all.

Putins nostalgia for the Soviet Union and his pledge to protect Russian minorities who are found in the Baltic States has left an open question about his territorial ambitions.

Few expect Putin to openly attack a NATO member, which would run the risk of a nuclear attack, but analysts have warned about provocations that stop short of sparking a war.

Putin has ordered Russias nuclear deterrent forces onto high alert and Foreign Minister Lavrov has also warned that World War III can only be a nuclear war.

Western analysts say such warnings should be taken as posturing to deter the US and Europe from considering ideas such as a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

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Where is the Russia-Ukraine war heading? Five scenarios - Al Jazeera English