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VLADIMIR Putin is reportedly planning a "blitzkrieg" against Ukraine and "nuclear blackmail" on the West as part of a plot to re-create the USSR, a leaked dossier claims.

The papers - reportedly from Ukrainian intelligence - warn that Moscow will attempt to use peace talks with the US as a faade for "large scale military preparations" around Ukraine's border.

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The dossier, which was reportedly leaked to the Daily Mirror , claims trying to "pacify" Putin during talks "could lead from the growth of Russian regional aggression to a real world war and is a real threat of western democracy destruction.

The papers - which analyse Russian military training - supposedly say there is "preparation for a modern blitzkrieg against Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries by strike units, airborne and special forces".

And according to the Mirror, Ukraine intelligence believe Moscow has "chosen a strategy of nuclear blackmail, spreading local armed conflicts with elements of hybrid wars, intensifying espionage, provocations and sabotage, economic pressure and spreading global corruption" among the West.

This, it claims, is "to neutralise western influence and create a trading space" - in effect a return to the Soviet Union.

It comes as Russian troops continue to flood the Ukraine border sparking concerns Putin is gearing up for a "short, sharp war" within DAYS.

The country could be plotting to kick off 2022 with quite the bang as military forces and artillery edge closer to Kyiv.

Tensions in Eastern Europe appear to show little sign of cooling, with some experts previously suggestingthe Russian president was planning to exploit the festive periodand attack while the West was "distracted".

Histroops have continued to prepare over Christmas, with new footage emerging showing hundreds of reconnaissance forces drilling in "tactical shooting skills".

They were polishing their skills in heavy snow drifts at the Kadamovsky firing range in the Rostov region, close to the Ukrainian border.

The drills marked the end of the 4,000 plus war games and exercises held last year - around 11 a day - by Russian forces.

At least 100,000 troops are reported to be just a stone's throw from the Ukrainian frontier, according to Western sources.

The UK and US have rallied behind Ukraineand promised to support them if Russia invaded, amid a mass build-up of troops on the border.

But experts warnedPresident Putin could strike and spark World War 3if Joe Biden bows down to the Russian strongman's demands, with the pair set to hold crunch talks this week.

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Vladimir Putin planning Ukraine blitzkrieg & nuclear blackmail on the West to re-create USSR, leaked dos... - The Sun

19171920 state in Eastern Europe

The Ukrainian People's Republic (UPR), or Ukrainian National Republic (UNR),[c] was a country in Eastern Europe that existed between 1917 and 1920. It was declared following the February Revolution in Russia. In March 1917, the National Congress in Kyiv elected the Central Council composed of socialist parties on the same principles as throughout the rest of the Russian Republic. The republic's autonomy was recognized by the Russian Provisional Government. Following the October Revolution, it proclaimed its independence from the Russian Republic on 25 January 1918.

During its short existence, the republic went through several political transformations - from the socialist-leaning republic headed by the Central Council with its general secretariat to the socialist republic led by the Directorate and by Symon Petliura. Between April and December 1918, the socialist authority of the Ukrainian People's Republic was suspended, having been overthrown by the pro-German Ukrainian State of Pavlo Skoropadsky, who was elected as a Hetman by a congress of peasants.[3][need quotation to verify] From late 1919, the UNR operated as an ally of the Second Polish Republic. On 10 November 1920, the state lost the remainder of its territory to the Bolsheviks. The 18 March 1921 Treaty of Riga between the Second Polish Republic, Soviet Russia (acting also on behalf of Soviet Belarus), and Soviet Ukraine sealed the fate of the Ukrainian People's Republic.

After the October Revolution, many governments formed in Ukraine, most notably the Ukrainian People's Republic of Soviets (19171918) based in Kharkiv, and its Soviet successors. This force, along with the Ukrainian Republic (based in Kyiv), plus the White Movement, Poland, Green armies, and the Anarchists, fought constantly with each other, which resulted in many casualties among Ukrainians fighting in a 191721 Ukrainian Civil War as part of the wider Russian Civil War of 191723. The Russian SFSR would (after the 1921 Treaty of Riga) extend control over what would ultimately become the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and (in 1922) a founding member of the Soviet Union.

On 10 June 1917, the Ukrainian Central Council declared its autonomy as part of the Russian Republic by its First Universal at the All-Ukrainian Military Congress. The highest governing body of the Ukrainian People's Republic became the General Secretariat headed by Volodymyr Vynnychenko. The Prime Minister of Russia Alexander Kerensky recognized the Secretariat, appointing it as the representative governing body of the Russian Provisional Government and limiting its powers to five governorates: Volyn, Kyiv, Podolie, Chernigov, and Poltava. At first Vynnychenko protested and left his post as Secretariat leader, but eventually returned to reassemble the Secretariat after the Tsentralna Rada accepted the Kerensky Instruktsiya and issued the Second Universal.

After the October Revolution the Kyivan faction of the Bolshevik Party instigated the uprising in Kyiv on 8 November 1917 in order to establish Soviet power in the city. Kyiv Military District forces attempted to stop it, but after the Tsentralna Rada threw its support behind the Bolsheviks, the Russian forces were eliminated from Kyiv. After expelling the government forces, the Rada announced a wider autonomy for the Ukrainian Republic, still maintaining ties to Russia, on 22 November 1917. The territory of the republic was proclaimed by the Third Universal 20 November 1917 (7 November by Old Style)[4] of the Tsentralna Rada encompassing the governorates: Volyn, Kyiv, Podolie, Chernigov, Poltava, Kharkov, Yekaterinoslav, Kerson, Taurida (not including Crimea). It also stated that the people of the governorates: Voronezh, Kholm, and Kursk were welcome to join the republic through a referendum. Further the Tsentralna Rada in its Universal stated that because there was no Government in the Russian Republic after the October Revolution it proclaimed itself the Supreme governing body of the territory of Ukraine until order in the Russian republic could be restored. The Central Rada called all revolutionary activities such as the October Revolution a civil war and expressed its hopes for the resolution of the chaos.

After a brief truce, the Bolsheviks realized that the Rada had no intention of supporting the Bolshevik Revolution. They re-organized into an All-Ukrainian Council of Soviets in December 1917 in an attempt to seize power. When that failed due to the Bolsheviks' relative lack of popularity in Kyiv, they moved to Kharkiv. The Bolsheviks of Ukraine declared the government of the Ukrainian People's Republic outlawed and proclaimed the Ukrainian People's Republic of Soviets with capital in Kyiv, claiming that the government of the People's Secretaries of Ukraine was the only government in the country. The Bolshevik Red Army entered Ukraine from the Russian SFSR in support of the local Soviet government. As the relationships between members within the Tsentralna Rada soured, a series of regional Soviet republics on the territory of Ukraine proclaimed their independence and allegiance to the Petrograd sovnarkom (Odessa Soviet Republic (southern Ukraine), Donetsk-Krivoi Rog Soviet Republic (eastern Ukraine)). The Donetsk-Kryvoi Rog Republic was created by a direct decree of Lenin as part of the Russian SFSR with its capital in Kharkiv. That decree was successfully implemented by Fyodor Sergeyev who became the chairman of the local government as well as joining the Soviet government of Ukraine, simultaneously. Unlike Fyodor Sergeyev's Republic, the Odessa Republic was not recognized by any other Bolshevik governments and on its own initiative had entered a military conflict with Romania for control over the Moldavian Democratic Republic, whose territory it was contesting.

The following information is based on the exposition of the Museum of Soviet occupation in Kyiv (Memorial (society) in Kyiv)[5]

(Each deputy represents 100,000 of population, a right of vote have citizens of 20 years and older; established the Central Election Commission to the Ukrainian Constituent Assembly)

In April 1918 troops loyal to the Ukrainian People's Republic take control of several cities in the Donbass region.[6]

Ukrainian People's Republic

Claimed territories (striped)

German troops in autumn, 1917

Soviet Russia

Don regional government

Kuban regional government

Crimea regional government

Austria-Hungary

Polish council

Romania

Moldova

Serbia

Due to the aggression from Soviet Russia, on 22 January 1918, the Tsentralna Rada issued its Fourth Universal (dated 22 January 1918), breaking ties with Bolshevik Russia and proclaiming a sovereign Ukrainian state.[7] Less than a month later, on 9 February 1918, the Red Army seized Kyiv.

Besieged by the Bolsheviks and having lost much territory, the Rada was forced to seek foreign aid, and signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk on 9 February 1918 to obtain military help from the German and Austro-Hungarian Empires. Germany helped the Ukrainian Army force the Bolsheviks out of Ukraine. On 20 February 1918 the council of the Kuban People's Republic accepted the resolution for a federal union of Kuban with Ukraine as Bolshevik forces pushed towards Yekaterinodar. It was agreed to forward the resolution for ratification to the Ukrainian government.

After the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Ukraine became a virtual protectorate of the German Empire which at that time seemed more favorable than being overrun by the Soviet forces that were spreading havoc in the country. Germany was anxious about losing the war and was trying to speed up the process of food extraction from Ukraine, so it decided to install its own administration in the person of Generalfeldmarschall von Eichhorn who replaced the Colonel General Alexander von Linsingen. On 6 April the commander of the Army group Kijew issued an order in which he explained his intentions to execute the conditions of the treaty. That, of course, conflicted with the laws of the Ukrainian government, which annulled his order. By April 1918 the German-Austrian Operation Faustschlag offensive had completely removed the Bolsheviks from Ukraine.[8][6][9][10][11] The German/Austro-Hungarian victories in Ukraine were due to the apathy of the locals and the inferior fighting skills of Bolsheviks troops compared to their Austro-Hungarian and German counterparts.[11]

The Germans arrested and disbanded the Tsentralna Rada on 29 April 1918 to stop the social reforms that were taking place and restarted the process of food supply transfer to Germany and Austria-Hungary. The German authorities also arrested the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Vsevolod Holubovych, on terrorist charges, and thus disbanded the Council of People's Ministers. Prior to this, the Rada had approved the Constitution of the Ukrainian People's Republic. Concurrently with all these events and a few days prior to the change of powers in the country on 24 April 1918 the government of Belarus confirmed the Belarusian Chamber of Commerce in Kyiv headed by Mitrofan Dovnar-Zapolsky on the initiative of the Belarusian secretary of finance Pyotr Krechevsky.[12]

Ukrainian State

Territories of Ukrainian Union (striped)

After the coup, the Rada was replaced by the conservative government of Hetman Pavlo Skoropadsky, the Hetmanate, and the Ukrainian People's Republic by a "Ukrainian State" (Ukrayinska derzhava). Skoropadsky, a former officer of the Russian Empire, established a regime favoring large landowners and concentrating power at the top. The government had little support from Ukrainian activists, but unlike the socialist Rada, it was able to establish an effective administrative organization, established diplomatic ties with many countries, and concluded a peace treaty with Soviet Russia. In a few months, the Hetmanate also printed millions of Ukrainian language textbooks, established many Ukrainian schools, two universities, and the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences.

The Hetmanate government also supported the confiscation of previously-nationalized peasant lands by wealthy estate owners, often with the help of German troops. This led to unrest, the rise of a peasant partisan (guerrilla) movement, and a series of large-scale popular armed revolts. Negotiations were held to garner support from previous Rada members Petliura and Vynnychenko, but these activists worked to overthrow Skoropadsky. On 30 July, a Russian Left Socialist-Revolutionary, Boris Mikhailovich Donskoy, with help from the local USRP succeeded in assassinating von Eichhorn, blowing him up in downtown Kyiv at a broadlight.

Due to the impending loss of World War I by Germany and Austria-Hungary, Skoropadsky's sponsors, the Hetman formed a new cabinet of Russian Monarchists and committed to federation with a possible future non-Bolshevik Russia. In response, the Ukrainian socialists announced a new revolutionary government, the Directorate, on 14 November 1918.

The Directorate gained massive popularity, and the support of some of Skoropadsky's military units including the Serdiuk Division. Their insurgent army encircled Kyiv on 21 November. After a three-week-long stalemate Skoropadsky abdicated in favor of the Council of Ministers who surrendered to the Revolutionary forces. On 19 December 1918, the Directorate took control of Kyiv.

The Bolsheviks invaded Ukraine from Kursk in late December 1918 where the new Ukrainian Soviet government was reestablished earlier in November of the same year. On 16 January 1919 Ukraine officially declared a war on Russia while the Russian Soviet government continued to deny all claims of invasion. On 22 January 1919, the Directorate was officially united with the West Ukrainian People's Republic, although the latter entity de facto maintained its own army and government. On 5 February, the Bolsheviks captured Kyiv.

Throughout 1919, Ukraine experienced chaos as the armies of the Ukrainian Republic, the Bolsheviks, the Whites, the foreign powers of the Entente, and Poland, as well as anarchist forces such as that of Nestor Makhno tried to prevail. The subsequent Kyiv Offensive, staged by the Polish army and allied Ukrainian forces, was unable to change the situation. On 10 November 1920, the Directorate lost the remainder of its territory to the Bolsheviks in Volhynia as it crossed into Poland to accept internment. In March 1921, the Peace of Riga sealed a shared control of the territory by Poland, the Russian SFSR, and the Ukrainian SSR.

As the result, the lands of Galicia (Halychyna) as well as a large part of the Volhynian territory were incorporated into Poland, while the areas to the east and south became part of Soviet Ukraine.

After its military and political defeat, the Directorate continued to maintain control over some of its military forces. Preempting a planned invasion by its rival Archduke Wilhelm of Austria,[15] in October 1921 the Ukrainian National Republic's government-in-exile launched a series of guerrilla raids into central Ukraine that reached as far east as Kyiv Oblast. On 4 November, the Directorate's guerrillas captured Korosten and seized much military supplies. But on 17 November 1921, this force was surrounded by Bolshevik cavalry and destroyed.

The following is the list of numerous uprisings that took place during the formation of the Ukrainian People's Republic. Some of them were in opposition to the Petlyura's government (such as the Oskilko's Affair), some were against the establishment of the Soviet regime, some took place to eliminate the Entente forces. According to Cheka documentation, in Ukraine took place 268 uprisings from 1917 through 1932, where in over 100 raions the mutinied peasants were killing chekists, communists, and prodotryads that were requisitioning food by force which more resembled expropriation.[16]

The Ukrainian People's Republic was recognized de jure in February 1918 by the Central Powers of World War I (Austria-Hungary, Germany, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria)[19] and by Bolshevik Russia, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), Georgia, Azerbaijan, Romania, Czechoslovakia, and the Holy See. De facto recognition was granted by Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, and Persia.[20]

Later in 1918 Russia chose to withdraw its recognition of independent Ukraine, representing the protocols of the Versailles Treaty as justification for its action. In 1920 Symon Petliura and Jzef Pisudski signed the Warsaw Treaty in which both countries established their borders along the Zbruch River.[21][22][23] The states that previously recognized the Ukrainian People's Republic ceased any relationships with its Government-in-exile after they recognized the Soviet Government in Kiev.[20]

According to the latest census that was taken 1897, the republic was accounted for over 20 million population in seven former Russian guberniyas, plus three uyezds of the Taurida Governorate that were located on the mainland.

On 4 March 1918 the Ukrainian government accepted the law about the administrative-territorial division of Ukraine. The law stated that Ukraine is divided into 32 zemlia (land) which are administrated by their respective zemstvo. This law was not fully implemented as on 29 April 1918 there was the anti-socialist coup in Kyiv, after which Hetman Pavlo Skoropadsky reverted the reform back to the guberniya-type administration.

The headquarters of the republic's armed forces was called the General Bulawa and was considered to be located in Kyiv. Of course, due to constant intervention from the Petrograd sovnarkom and the German Empire the physical location of it was changing (Kamyanets-Podilsky, Bila Tserkva, others).

The following three Zaporizhian infantry regiments and the 3 Haidamaka Regiment of the biggest Ukrainian military formation, the Zaporizhian Corps, later were reorganized into the 1 Zaporizhian Division.

In December 1918 a temporary law about the issue of state banknotes by the UPR was adopted. According to this law: "Bank-notes must be issued in karbovanets" (Ukrainian: ). Each karbovanets contains 17.424 parts of pure gold and is divided into two hrivnas (Ukrainian: ) or 200 shahs (Ukrainian: ).

There were numerous banks in the republic among the most popular ones were the Ukrainabank and the Soyuzbank that were created by Khrystofor Baranovsky, the leader of a cooperative movement.

Green indicates UPR-controlled territory, red indicates the Red Army control, light yellow for the White Army control, dark yellow for Germany, blue for Poland, and brown for Romania. Bold black line indicates the borders of modern Ukraine.

Provisional borders of Ukraine in 1919

Coordinates: 5027N 3030E / 50.450N 30.500E / 50.450; 30.500

Read more:
Ukrainian People's Republic - Wikipedia

OPINION:

Ukraine is much smaller than Russia in geography, population, per capita economic wealth and military power. Ukrainian leaders have not voiced hostile intent toward Russia. Some Ukrainians have advocated Ukraine joining NATO, a mutual defense organization, not an aggressive military alliance.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to invade more of Ukraines territory (in 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and occupied part of eastern Ukraine with the ongoing war), much of the world would condemn the action, and he could expect immediate and hard-hitting economic sanctions. An invasion of Ukraine would cause Russia much pain and little gain so why even threaten military action? Thirty years ago to be precise on Christmas Day 1991 then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev gave a speech announcing that after 69 years the USSR would no longer exist since many of its former republics had announced independence, including Ukraine, and thus finalizing the emergence of 15 separate countries. Many in Russia (including Mr. Putin) viewed the events as the greatest geopolitical disaster.

Kyiv, Ukraine, was the original capital of the multiethnic people (Kyivan Rus), which predated Muscovy/Russia by several hundred years. In 1223, the first of the Mongolian invasions began. Over the next several centuries, the Russian/Ukrainian lands were broken into several vassal states ruled by the Mongols (known as the Golden Hoard). In the intervening centuries, Ukraine was independent, part of the Russian Empire, or part of other European powers. The Ukrainians have always had a separate identity, language and culture, different from the Russian.

Ukraine was a major nuclear power when it achieved its independence from the Soviet Union. In December 1994, the Budapest Memorandum committed the United States, Russia and Britain to respect the independence and sovereign borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainians giving up their nuclear weapons. The Russians have clearly violated the agreement which did not contain an enforcement mechanism.

Mr. Putin has said, regardless of the legal niceties, that he views Ukraine as part of Russia. His attitude is a throwback to the age of imperialistic empires, where countries believed that they had to control the landmass and governments of others to maximize wealth and influence. By necessity, the U.K. and France were forced to devolve their empires; and rather than getting poorer, they ultimately became richer, without the cost of maintaining troops and civil servants in dozens of countries. The goal of mutual prosperity could be better obtained through free trade and investment agreements.

Few officials of the former Soviet Union defend communism. The rational thinkers, including Mr. Putin, understand it was a failure as an economic and political model. But Mr. Putin (and President Xi Jinping in China) have argued that they can get better results by using authoritarian capitalism (or something very close to fascism) to avoid the swings in the free market system and the uncertainties of decisions made by millions of independent individuals.

Mr. Putin has played a weak hand extraordinarily well over the decades. Russia ranks about 81 in per capita income $11,600 while Switzerland and Ireland each have over $94,000. Russia has nukes and few very modern weapons but both in quantity and quality, Russia greatly lags the U.S. Even so, Mr. Putin strides around the world stage, like the ruler of a superpower Soviet Union once was. He understands that the U.S. and other western leaders are weak and that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bully them into making concessions to Russia. He extorts by threatening war knowing he could sustain one for only a very short time.

For hundreds of years, the Russians have had a sense of grievance against the West. Many believe that Western governments (and by extension the U.S.) and businesses took advantage of Russians when they were weak so payback is considered fair play. This grievance makes it difficult for outsiders to do business in Russia. Taking advantage of a Westerner is often considered an act of loyalty. Using their intelligence services for commercial purposes is viewed as just part of the game.

If the players of a global chess game are using different rules, the outcomes are unlikely to be accepted. Russia is not a normal country, and Mr. Putin is not a normal leader.

The great danger is that one side or the other will miscalculate. President Biden may be weak, but at some point, he might well react with uncharacteristic strength and take an action that Mr. Putin or Mr. Xi will respond to with force. This is how major wars start. The First World War is exhibit one. It was a war about nothing and only supposed to last a couple of months at worst. Instead, it cost millions of lives and lasted for almost five years. After all, King George of Britain, the German Kaiser and the Russian Czar were cousins all grandsons of Queen Victoria and, certainly, they would not allow the disagreements to get out of hand!

How will the U.S. react to a Russian invasion of Ukraine or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Leaving such questions unanswered before the act may well be a formula for disaster.

Richard W. Rahn is chair of the Institute for Global Economic Growth and MCon LLC.

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Why is Putin threatening Ukraine? - Washington Times

Russian and US officials will hold security talks in early January amid mounting tensions over Ukraine, officials from both countries have confirmed.

The high-stakes discussions are expected to address Russias military buildup on Ukraines borders, while Moscow will press demands that Nato pledges not to admit Ukraine and roll back the alliances post-cold war development.

A spokesperson for the Biden administration said late on Monday that Russia and Nato would hold talks on 12 January, with a broader regional meeting including Moscow, Washington and several European countries set for 13 January,

Russias foreign ministry on Tuesday confirmed those dates and said Russia-US talks would take place in Geneva on 10 January , the state-run RIA news agency reported. The deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said he hoped they would begin a process that would give Moscow new security guarantees from the west.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Moscow would take a hard line in the talks, aiming to defend its interests and avoid concessions. There was no immediate word on who would represent the two sides in the talks.

Moscow, which seized Ukraines Crimea peninsula in 2014 and has since backed separatists fighting in eastern Ukraine, has unnerved the west by massing tens of thousands of troops near the border, sparking fears of a new attack, possibly including further seizures of Ukrainian territory.

Moscow has denied plans for an assault, saying the troop movements are to defend Russia against an encroaching western military, and has not explicitly tied the threat of an eventual assault to the failure of talks with the US.

But Vladimir Putin has said he would review military-technical responses if his demands a wishlist of security proposals, including a promise that Nato would give up any military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine are not met.

The US administration has promised swift and brutal sanctions in the case of a Russian incursion.

Ryabkov reacted negatively to reports that the White House was expecting to also discuss arms control and Russias military buildup at the upcoming talks, saying there was no need to invent an oversized agenda and to stuff it with issues, which have long been addressed through other channels, to serve ones own interests.

He said Russia would want to concentrate exclusively on two draft documents it has submitted, focusing on its draft treaty with Nato, in which Moscow called for the military alliance to pledge not to admit Ukraine and to remove its troops and infrastructure from countries that had joined after 1997.

That document is particularly controversial in Natos eastern flank, with those countries that joined after the fall of the Soviet Union seeing it as a de facto declaration of a Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe.

Matters on the agenda besides a ban on Nato enlargement and the rollback of its infrastructure were secondary, Ryabkov said. If other topics were put on the agenda, Russia would conclude that the US is not prepared for a serious talk.

He said Russia was calling for negotiations, which, by the way, need to be intensive and fast since the problem is not just ripe, it is overripe. Moscow has said repeatedly we are no longer able to put up with the situation unfolding in the direct vicinity of our border, we cannot put up with the Nato enlargement, he said.

A spokesperson for the White Houses National Security Council, who declined to be named, said on Monday: When we sit down to talk, Russia can put its concerns on the table, and we will put our concerns on the table with Russias activities as well.

There will be areas where we can make progress, and areas where we will disagree. Thats what diplomacy is about. No decisions would be made about Ukraine without Ukraine, the spokesperson said.

They added: President Bidens approach on Ukraine has been clear and consistent: unite the alliance behind two tracks deterrence and diplomacy. We are unified as an alliance on the consequences Russia would face if it moves on Ukraine.

The US president, Joe Biden, signed into law a large spending bill on Monday that, among other things, will provide $300m for an initiative supporting Ukraines armed forces, and billions more for European defence broadly.

Ukraines border service said on Tuesday that the US would finance $20m-worth of projects, including surveillance and monitoring equipment such as video recording systems and drones, to strengthen Ukraines borders with Russia and Belarus.

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US and Russia to hold talks amid Ukraine tensions - The Guardian

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is at risk.

As Russias buildup on the Ukrainian border continues, few observers note that an invasion of Ukraine could put nuclear reactors on the front line of military conflict. The world is underestimating the risk that full-scale, no-holds-barred conventional warfare could spark a catastrophic reactor failure, causing an unprecedented regional nuclear emergency.

The threat is real. Ukraine is heavily dependent upon nuclear power, maintaining four nuclear power plants and stewardship of the shattered nuclear site at Chernobyl. In a major war, all 15 reactors at Ukraines nuclear power facilities would be at risk, but even a desultory Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine is likely to expose at least six active reactors to the uncertainty of a ground combat environment.

The world has little experience with reactors in a war zone. Since humanity first harnessed the atom, the world has only experienced two major accidentsChernobyland JapansFukushima disaster. A Russian invasion, coupled with an extended conventional war throughout Ukraine, could generate multiple International Atomic Energy Agency Level 7 accidents in a matter of days. Such a contingency would induce a massive refugee exodus and could render much of Ukraine uninhabitable for decades.

Turning the Ukraine into a dystopian landscape, pockmarked by radioactive exclusion zones, would be an extreme method to obtain the defensive zone Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to want. Managing a massive Western-focused migratory crisis and environmental cleanup would absorb Europe for years. The work would distract European leaders and empower nativist governments that tend to be aligned with Russias baser interests, giving an overextended Russia breathing room as the country teeters on the brink of technological, demographic, and financial exhaustion.

Put bluntly, the integrity of Ukrainian nuclear reactors is a strategic matter, critical for both NATO and non-NATO countries alike. Causing a severe radiological accident for strategic purposes is unacceptable. A deliberate aggravation of an emerging nuclear catastrophepreventing mitigation measures or allowing reactors to deliberately melt down and potentially contaminate wide portions of Europewould simply be nuclear warfare without bombs.

Such a scenario cant be ruled out. Russia has repeatedly used Ukraine to test out concepts for Gray Zone warfare, where an attacker dances just beyond the threshold of open conflict. Given Russias apparent interest in radiation-spewing nuclear-powered cruise missiles, robotic undersea bombs with a radiological fallout-oriented payload, destructive anti-satellite tests and other nihilistic, world-harming weapons, Russias ongoing dalliance with Gray Zone warfare in Ukraine may, for the rest of Europe, become a real matter of estimating radiological grays, or, in other words, estimating the amount of ionizing radiation absorbed by humans.

UkrainesZaporizhzhia nuclear power plantis a particular risk. It is the second-largest nuclear power plant in Europe (essentially tied with a French reactor complex near Calais), and one of the 10 largest nuclear power plants in the world. The site has little protection, and the sixVVER-1000pressurized water reactors could easily be embroiled in any Russian invasion.

If war comes, the fight will be close by. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located only 120 miles from the current front line in theDonbass regionand is on the hard-to-defend east bank of the Dnieper River. Aside from the geographical hazards, the power plant provides about a quarter of Ukraines total electrical power. Given the importance of the electricity, plant managers will be reluctant to shut it down, securing the reactors only at the very last possible second. Ukraines desperate need for energy only compounds the opportunities for an accident.

Outside of direct battle damage, cyber and other Russian-sourced grey zone mischief could make the plant unmanageable even before the battle arrives at the reactor gates.

Though unlikely, direct bombardment could cause serious damage to reactor containment structures. While the reactor structures themselves are strong, warfare at the plant could kill key personnel and destroy command-and-control structures, monitoring sensors or critical reactor-cooling infrastructure. And, as an operating power plant, the reactors are not the only threat. Dangerous spent fuel rods are sitting in vulnerable cooling ponds, while older fuel sits in the sites167 dry spent fuel assemblies.

If the reactors suffer any operational anomalies, crisis management is not going to happen. Support infrastructure needed for safe reactor management will collapse during conflict. Plant security forces will disappear, operators will flee, and, if an accident occurs, mitigating measures will be impossible.

It seems unlikely that Russia has mobilized trained reactor operators and prepared reactor crisis-management teams to take over any liberated power plants. The heroic measures that kept the Chernobyl nuclear accident and Japans Fukushima nuclear disaster from becoming far more damaging events just will not happen in a war zone.

Again, the risks are very high. The world has never dealt with an unmanaged meltdown at a large nuclear power plant. The very real prospect of an extended and unmitigated incident at a six-reactor powerplant in a war zone is worth urgent and immediate consultations throughout Europe and NATO.

Nuclear disasters are rarely localized events. When Chernobyl occurred, Putin was enjoying a KGB posting in East Germany. He certainly must recall that the accident released a stew of dangerous radioactive contaminants into the air, spreading contaminationand fearacross Europe. One dangerous contaminant, caesium-137, spread thousands of miles, though most fell out of the atmospherewithin 200 miles of the stricken plant, creating large no-go zones in areas of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.

The same would be true of Zaporizhzhia. If the reactors are damaged in late December or early January, the prevailing winds are from Siberia, and weather patterns can be expected to push dangerous levels of caesium-137 and other contaminants directly to the west. The fallout will contaminate Ukraines key waterway, Europes breadbasket, and potentiallydepending on the contamination types and weather patternscompromising drinking water supplies across Europe.Of course, nature is a fickle partner, and, if Putins invaders spark an uncontrollable meltdown, the winter winds will eventually change, pushing radiation over the Donbass region and into Russia.

Tactically, radioactive plumes would make nearly every civilian nearby flee, degrading Ukrainian defensive efforts. The fallout could even force the three reactors at the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plantbarely 160 miles downwindto shut down, further weakening Ukraines electricity supply and its defenses.

The world has never experienced war that threatens active nuclear power infrastructure, and world leaders may be underestimating the peril conventional warfare presents to these powerful and perilous assets.

On the other hand, heedless purveyors of gray zone warfare may be underestimating the risk themselves, all too eager to determine just how degraded nuclear infrastructure might serve as a less risky surrogate for nuclear conflict.

To them, its not nuclear war, but just a series of unfortunate nuclear accidents.

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A Ukraine Invasion Could Go Nuclear: 15 Reactors Would Be In War Zone - Forbes