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Then-US Secretary of State John Kerry, (right) Victoria Nuland, Moscow, December 2015 (Source: AP)

According to Kremlin-connected analyst Fedor Lukyanov, the Joseph Biden administration had to work hard with Moscow to make Under Secretary Victoria Nulands visit possible. The United States seeks a mutually accepted modus vivendi with Russia regarding the Donbas problem; and Bidens team is prepared to exert its influence on Ukraine to cooperate toward that goal. Moscow would therefore expect Washington to adjust Ukraines profile downward in the US policy (Bfm.ru, October 10; Global Affairs, October 11).

Nulands revisiting of the 2015 Minsk agreement (see Part One) comes as a surprise. One month ago, President Biden and the other officials receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington never mentioned the Minsk agreements or a special status for Donbas. The White House thereby deferred to the Ukrainian delegation, and it seemed that those controversial words had been dropped for good (see EDM, September 7, 9).

For all its satisfaction with the talks on Ukraine, Moscow apparently stalled on proposals that Nuland brought up unrelated to Ukraine (cyber-hacking, embassy personnel parity, visa reciprocity). Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that a US military presence in Central Asia [to monitor Taliban-ruled Afghanistan] is unacceptable in any form and that Russia will be watching, lest Australia violate the treaty on nuclear non-proliferation after it joins the Australian-British-US (AUKUS) fleet of nuclear-powered submarines (TASS, October 13).

No information, official or unofficial, has surfaced in Kyiv regarding Nulands Moscow visit on the Biden administrations behalf. Whether the visit, directly affecting Ukraine, was discussed with the Ukrainian authorities is not known either. The Ukrainian Presidential Office has only reported one telephone call with Nuland: on October 7, Presidential Office Chief Andriy Yermak and Nuland discussed the security situation around Ukraine, the [deadlocked] Normandy negotiations (Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine), and the importance of strengthening the role of the United States in the processes of peaceful resolution of the conflict (Ukrinform, October 7).

Nuland has re-entered a scene that was hers in 20152016 as Assistant Secretary of State in the Barack Obama administration. She visited Kyiv fairly regularly during that period, several times with thenSecretary of State John Kerry and several times on her own. Nuland tried hard to persuade then-president Petro Poroshenko and the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) to start fulfilling the 2015 Minsk agreements political clauses, but she did not progress too far in that effort. From May 2015 until almost the end of the Obama administration in the fall of 2016 Nuland operated the US side of a bilateral channel of negotiation with Vladislav Surkov (Kozaks predecessor on Ukrainian affairs in Russias presidential administration). Nuland and Surkov held several meetings, of which three became known, and did not achieve results either. No US negotiator is involved at present, whether in an existing group format or as a special envoy. Kyiv has been pleading for the United States to join the Normandy format or for a U.S. negotiator to mediate between Ukraine and Russia or, alternatively, interact bilaterally with a Russian counterpart.

Some speculation exists in Ukraine that the United States may before long decide to enter the negotiations on the Donbas conflict, not in the Normandy format but on a bilateral basis with Russia. In this view, the US and Russia could stabilize the situation in short order, ensure de-escalation and stabilization and, on that basis, introduce a political solution. In that case, the sidelining of the Donbas problem could take the legal-political form of a special status as per the Minsk agreement. Such a scenario would, however, only conserve a precarious, insecure situation.

It is a common observation that the Biden administration views its relations with Russia in part through the prism of the US-China contest. To focus attention and resources on that contest, the administration calls for stable and predictable relations with Russia. Concurrently, it seeks Russias cooperation on problems that affect the US and various allies considerably more than they affect Russiae.g., Iranian and North Korean nuclear and missile proliferation or turmoil in parts of the Middle East.

Major challenges and threats, however, originate for the most part in Russia itself: disinformation operations, extortionist cyber-hacking, instrumentalized energy dependencies, dangerous and threatening military exercises, ongoing warfare in Ukraine, seizures of territory from neighboring countries, military operations in the Middle East and Africa, militarization of the Arctic, Russias hand in Venezuelas collapse. Nevertheless, the Biden administration apparently hopes for Russia to cooperate with US priorities that Russia does not necessarily or fully sharee.g., a new strategic arms treaty and ambitious climate goals.

The official phrase that We seek stable, predictable relations with Russia, launched at the time of Joseph Biden and Vladimir Putins June 2021 summit in Geneva, and heavily used as a talking point by state officials since then, is unfit for purpose. This phrase asks Russia, in effect, to voluntarily give up its strategic and tactical competitive advantages. Asking Russia to give up these amounts almost to supplication. Practically, it conveys a plea that one cannot cope with Russias operational tempo. Russia looks poised to go on thriving on instability and unpredictability.

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The Kremlin Is Pleased After Kozak-Nuland Talks on Ukraine (Part Two) - Jamestown - The Jamestown Foundation

HORLIVKA, Ukraine/KYIV, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Russian-backed separatists on Monday ended their blockade of a hotel housing international conflict monitors in eastern Ukraine, an incident sparked by the capture of an officer by Ukrainian armed forces last week.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said on Sunday its monitors were unable to leave their patrol base in a hotel in the separatist-controlled town of Horlivka while the separatists demanded the officer's release.

The OSCE, Europe's main security watchdog, said the base's vehicle entrance had been locked with a chain and padlock and that they had seen tents pitched outside the hotel.

It was one of several incidents reported by the OSCE of its monitors being prevented from carrying out their work since the officer's capture.

On Monday afternoon a Reuters reporter witnessed several protesters who had stood outside the hotel in Horlivka leaving after what they said were talks with the OSCE monitors.

"We agreed today that the protesters unlock the building and give the OSCE members a chance to continue their duties," said one of the negotiators, Natalya Kruzhilina.

Protesters opened the gate of a parking lot where two OSCE cars were parked and dismantled their tents.

However, the OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) said in an emailed statement that its monitors were still not able to deploy from their hotel in the city of Donetsk.

The OSCE had suspended the monitoring mission by its team in Donetsk after protesters gathered and pitched tents over the issue of the captured officer. read more

"As a result of a protest in front of the hotel where Mission members live in Donetsk city, and in line with its safety and security procedures, the SMM does not deploy patrols from the Donetsk Team and its Hub in the same city," it said.

"The patrolling from the other SMM locations continues as normal. We call upon the sides to remove all impediments to the SMM's freedom of movement."

The SMM has been deployed in eastern Ukraine since 2014 with the aim of arranging dialogue between Kyiv's forces and the separatists amid a conflict that Ukraine says has so far claimed about 14,000 lives.

"HOSTAGES"

The Ukrainian government had described the OSCE monitors as "hostages" and in a statement called on the international community to investigate what it said was another attempt to undermine the monitoring mission's ability to operate.

"The detention of international observers by armed individuals is a sign of international terrorism," the Ukrainian delegation to the peace talks said.

The foreign minister of the Russia-backed self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Natalya Nikonorova, said the OSCE mission in Donetsk was safe and its monitors had not asked to leave the building so far.

The people outside the hotel were unarmed, Nikonorova said. "There are no acts of violence... People express their resentment and, by the way, we understand them."

The separatists say the officer, Andrei Kosyak, was captured by the Ukrainian military near the front line last Wednesday while he was helping to oversee the ceasefire.

The Ukrainian defence ministry said Kosyak was a Russian citizen and belonged to a group of Russian servicemen who had carried out an undercover reconnaissance mission.

On Sunday, the SMM also said three of its patrol vehicles were prevented from travelling from government to separatist-controlled areas until Kosyak was freed.

The conflict dates back to 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine after mass street protests that ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, a Kremlin ally.

Fighting then erupted in eastern Ukraine between Kyiv's forces and Russian-backed separatists. Moscow rejects Kyiv's accusations that it has deliberately fomented the conflict and that it has forces in eastern Ukraine.

Reporting by Pavel Polityuk and Margaryta Chornokondratenko in Kyiv, Alexander Ermochenko in Horlivka and Maria Tsvetkova in Moscow;Editing by Gareth Jones, Matthias Williams, William Maclean

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Separatists end blockade of hotel housing conflict monitors in eastern Ukraine - Reuters

Vaccinating citizens against COVID-19 is the only alternative to the introduction of lockdown in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has told the ICTV channel.

"There are two ways at this crossroads: vaccination or lockdown. Every day we face this challenge and this choice. I am against lockdown - because of the economy. Because if there is no lockdown, we see numbers, we [see economic] growth. Our GDP is growing, the budget is growing, the filling of the budget this year is more than planned," Zelensky said.

According to him, in general, the health care system is prepared for an increase in COVID-19 cases, but despite the supply of oxygen to hospitals, medical institutions will not be able to withstand a large number of patients.

"When the number of [infected] people grows, no system can withstand that. Today we have one of the largest systems in Europe in terms of the number of beds, in terms of oxygen supply. But no one will be able to withstand 300,000 or 500,000 [patients]," Zelensky said.

The head of state called on citizens to get vaccinated to avoid tighter quarantine restrictions in the country.

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Zelensky sees vaccination as only alternative to lockdown in Ukraine - Ukrinform. Ukraine and world news

The European Union has not yet made an official decision to remove Ukraine from the list of safe countries due to the growing number of COVID-19 cases but can do so.

"The European Union has not yet made an official decision. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has previously reported that if the number of COVID-19 cases grows in Ukraine, the EU may adopt a recommendation to remove our country from the list of countries for which travel restrictions on non-essential travel to the EU should be lifted. Brussels reviews the list of countries every two weeks and adjusts it depending on the epidemic situation," Oleg Nikolenko, Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, posted on Facebook.

He noted that the epidemic situation was deteriorating not only in Ukraine and recalled that in recent weeks the European Union had significantly shortened the list of safe countries.

"Some EU countries have begun to toughen quarantine measures for their citizens," said the spokesperson.

As Nikolenko emphasized, it is important to understand that:

If adopted, the EU decision to remove Ukraine from the list of safe countries does not abolish visa-free travel, it only introduces temporary restrictions on non-essential trips to combat the spread of coronavirus disease. The decision may also be reviewed later during the next update of the list if the epidemic situation improves.

If adopted, the EU decision does not automatically establish new border crossing rules but only provides a recommendation for the EU Member States. The final decision on the permission or restriction on one or another type of travel for Ukrainian citizens is taken by each EU Member State at the national level. The experience of some of our neighbors, who have been removed from the EU's "safe list" in previous weeks, shows that we should not expect total border closures like last year.

Finally, Nikolenko assured that the Foreign Ministry and embassies were actively working with foreign partners to ensure that the range of countries welcoming Ukrainian travelers remains as wide as possible and continues to expand even in difficult conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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MFA: European Union has not yet removed Ukraine from list of safe countries - Ukrinform. Ukraine and world news

The ratification of the Rome Statute will speed up the investigation of crimes in Crimea and Donbas and allow Ukraine to seize the opportunities of the International Criminal Court (ICC), in particular, to accelerate the prosecution of perpetrators of crimes in the occupied Crimea and Donbas.

The ratification of the Rome Statute is crucial. First, it will demonstrate that we trust the justice we seek. Second, we will get the tools. We need not only to ratify but also to embed the ICC prosecutors investigation tools in the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine. It will also give us opportunities, Prosecutor General of Ukraine Iryna Venediktova told journalists after a meeting with new chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan on October 18, an Ukrinform correspondent in The Hague reported.

The Prosecutor General noted that the meeting with Karim Khan was very frank and professional. It took place behind closed doors. In particular, the parties discussed continuous effective cooperation and 24 communications over war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied Crimea and Donbas.

In December 2020, the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court endorsed the completion of the preliminary examination of the events in Ukraine related to the international armed conflict in Donbas and Crimea. Completion of the preliminary examination means that the crimes committed in Crimea and Donbas can be fully investigated. The decision to open a full-fledged investigation into the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity amid the armed conflict is to be made by the Judges of the Pre-Trial Chamber of the Court.

The International Criminal Court was established on the basis of the Rome Statute.

On January 20, 2000, Ukraine signed the Rome Statute of the ICC but did not ratify it. Although Ukraine is not a member state of the Statute, it had the right to apply to the ICC as the Statute signatory.

At the same time, Russia withdrew its signature from the Rome Statute. However, this does not prevent Russian citizens from being prosecuted for crimes committed in the territory of Ukraine.

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Venediktova: Rome Statute will give Ukraine new opportunities at ICC - Ukrinform. Ukraine and world news