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Russian warships patrol the surface of the Black Sea, launching missiles at Ukrainian towns while creating a de facto blockade, threatening any vessel that might try to breach it.

Skimming the waters surface, Ukrainian sea drones carry explosives stealthily toward Russian ports and vessels, a growing threat in Kyivs arsenal. In the airspace above, NATO and allied surveillance planes and drones fly over international waters, gathering intelligence used to blunt Moscows invasion, even as Russia fills the skies with its own aircraft.

Bordered by Ukraine, Russia and three NATO countries, but sometimes overlooked in the war, the Black Sea has become an increasingly dangerous cauldron of military and geopolitical tensions, following Moscows decision last month to end a deal ensuring the safe passage of Ukrainian grain.

Removed from the fierce fighting on the front, the Black Sea nevertheless puts Russia and NATO countries in the kind of proximity that does not exist in other theaters of the war, like the defense of Kyiv or the battle for Bakhmut increasing the risk of confrontation.

The Black Sea is now a zone of conflict a war zone as relevant to NATO as western Ukraine, said Ivo Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO who runs the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

After withdrawing from the grain deal, Russia pulverized Ukrainian Black Sea ports to stymie grain shipments key to Ukraines economy, and even struck sites on the Danube River a few hundred yards from Romania, a NATO member; the attack escalated fears that the military alliance would get drawn into the conflict.

Ukraine retaliated last week with two strikes on Russian ships on consecutive days demonstrating its new reach with sea drones that can hit Russian ports hundreds of miles from its coast. And it issued a warning that six Russian Black Sea ports and the approaches to them would be considered areas of war risk until further notice.

We must defend our own coast starting from the coast of the enemy, the commander of the Ukrainian navy, Rear Adm. Oleksiy Neizhpapa, said in May as he made the case for a more robust response to what he called Russias tyranny on the international waters of the Black Sea.

The battle for control of the sea could have implications for global energy markets and world food supplies. And it will also almost certainly raise new challenges for NATO as it seeks to uphold a central tenet of international law free navigation of the sea without drawing the alliance directly into conflict with Russian forces.

In Washington, Biden administration officials had expressed reservations early in the war about Ukraine striking targets or conducting sabotage inside Russia, including its Black Sea ports, fearing that such attacks would only escalate tensions with President Vladimir V. Putin. Those concerns have lessened, though not disappeared.

The United States has prohibited the use of American weapons in any attack against Russian territory, and American officials say they do not pick targets for Ukraine. But the United States and Western allies have long provided intelligence to Ukraine that, along with its own extensive intelligence-gathering networks, Kyiv uses to select targets.

For centuries, the Black Sea has been at the center of Russias efforts to extend its geopolitical and economic influence, leading to clashes with other world powers, including multiple wars with the Ottoman Empire.

The ports along the warm waters facilitated trade year round. The location a geopolitical crossroads has offered Russia a place to project political power into Europe, the Middle East and beyond.

For years, Mr. Putin has sought to increase Moscows influence around the Black Sea, pouring government money into developing seaside ports and vacation cities and building up Russian military power at naval installations in the area for Moscows southern fleet.

The sea is equally important to NATO, which Mr. Putin insists is trying to destroy Russia. Three member nations Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria border the Black Sea itself, with four important ports. Five NATO partner countries are also in the region Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Control over the Black Sea is an obvious war aim for Russia and one of the reasons in 2014 it annexed Crimea, a large peninsula on the northern coast of the sea, when a pro-Russian president of Ukraine was ousted in a rebellion.

Only hours after launching its full-scale invasion last year, Russian forces fired a missile that hit the commercial ship Yasa Jupiter, which flew the flag of the Marshall Islands; at least two other civilian ships were struck during attacks on Ukrainian ports up and down the coast.

Since then, Moscow has occupied three major Ukrainian ports. It has heavily mined the waters, neutralized the Ukrainian Navy and imposed a de facto blockade of civilian shipping to and from all Ukrainian-held ports.

Despite NATOs expressed desire to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, the risks of an inadvertent incident spiraling out of control have been growing for some time.

NATO and its member states are flying air surveillance and air policing missions over NATO territory, territorial waters and international waters over the Black Sea, but are careful not to stray into the war zone.

In March, in the only known physical contact between the Russian and American militaries during this war, a Russian warplane struck a U.S. surveillance drone, causing its operators to bring it down in international waters.

But recently NATO has increased the number of such surveillance flights and air policing, the alliance announced after the second NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on July 26.

Ukraine and some shipping industry leaders have called for Western allies to provide naval escorts to ships willing to defy Russian threats and carry grain from ports in Ukraine, but there are numerous problems with that.

For one, Turkey has been firm in trying to keep its NATO allies from escalating tensions with Russia in the Black Sea. Turkey has also been trying to convince Mr. Putin to return to the grain deal it helped broker, even if hopes are dimming, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of EDAM, a Turkish research institution.

Turkey has been very adverse to any NATO mission in the Black Sea, feeling that a higher NATO presence there would increase the risk of conflict with Russia, Mr. Ulgen said.

Since the Russian invasion, Turkey, which controls passage in and out of the Black Sea through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits under a 1936 convention, has banned Russian and Ukrainian warships from using the Straits, an act praised by Ukraine and NATO.

But Turkey has also asked allies not to send in their own warships.

So the underlying tension here is about how the U.S. and Turkey look at the Black Sea and how they frame it within the security umbrella of NATO, Mr. Ulgen said. But so far, since Turkey closed the straits to Russian warships, the U.S. has not tried to corner Turkey.

For months, Ukraine could do relatively little to combat Russias control of the water, but it never stopped working to develop a threat to challenge Russias vastly more powerful naval forces.

Ukraine used maritime drones to attack the Russian naval fleet in October. At the time, it was unclear if it would become a consistent, effective part of its arsenal. But then last week it struck with stealth and surprise at two Russian ships, hitting both.

Our vision is based on the need to substitute Soviet principles of mass and power with Western principles of quality and necessary capabilities, Admiral Neizhpapa, the Ukrainian naval commander, wrote for the U.S. Naval Institute.

P.W. Singer, a specialist on 21st century warfare at the New America think tank in Washington, said that Ukraine is benefiting from a much-improved new generation of its seaborne drone fleet.

In less than a year, Mr. Singer said on Sunday, the drone boats have evolved into larger, faster, stealthier sea craft that can carry more explosives.

The makers of the drone say it is designed for an array of missions, from surveillance to combat; can travel at about 48 miles per hour; and has a range of up to 450 nautical miles. At that range, a drone fired from Ukraines Black Sea port of Odesa could reach Novorossiysk, which Ukraine struck on Friday though it is not known how or from where the drone was launched.

Mr. Singer said Ukraines rapid progress in building drones was almost Silicon Valley-like.

While Russias invasion has spurred widespread outrage in the West, it has also escalated concerns about surging oil prices that could shock the global economy.

More than 3 percent of global oil and oil products move through the Black Sea. Historically, about 750,000 barrels of Russian crude oil, or 20 percent of its crude exports, leave from the Black Sea, though the country has reduced such shipments to between 400,000 and 575,000 barrels a day, according to tanker tracker companies, as Russia sought to support prices with its producing partner Saudi Arabia.

Ukrainian officials have made it clear that they hope by expanding the war to Russias ports, they can inflict some economic pain on Moscow.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to the Ukrainian president, said that as long as the Kremlin refuses to comply with international law, it can expect a sharp reduction in Russian commercial potential.

Nevertheless Russia has proved to be a resilient oil supplier.

After major oil traders and major international oil companies refused to sell Russian oil following its invasion of Ukraine, newly incorporated trading firms and shipping companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Greece and Hong Kong have taken up the slack.

David Goldwyn, a former State Department official with responsibility for energy issues, said oil prices could rise $10 to $15 a barrel if Russian exports from the Black Sea are displaced.

Oil is now trading at about $85 a barrel, holding steady even after Ukraine struck the Russian tanker over the weekend.

The question now, said Sarah Emerson, president of Energy Security Analysis, a consulting firm, is whether the Ukrainians can do this over and over again. This would tighten energy markets that are already tightening.

Marc Santora reported from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Steven Erlanger from Berlin. Reporting was contributed by Clifford Krauss, Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt, Paul Sonne and Matthew Mpoke Bigg .

More here:
Turbulent Waters: How the Black Sea Became a Hot Spot in the War - The New York Times

Diplomats from countries including China attending talks in Saudi Arabia, in a handout photo from the Saudi Press Agency.Credit...Saudi Press Agency

Top officials from more than 40 countries, including some with strong links to Russia like China and India, gathered in Saudi Arabia this weekend to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.

For Ukraine, the talks were part of a bid to win the support of dozens of countries that have remained on the sidelines of the war, further isolating Russia. The discussion did not have Russian participation and did not yield a formal declaration or statement.

And yet there was a glimmer of progress. China, which did not attend previous talks in June, was an active participant this time and signaled that it was willing to attend a third round of talks one that could be a precursor to a meeting of heads of state, according to a European Union official.

Nearly 18 months after Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diplomatic efforts to end the fighting have produced few concrete results. One of the few tangible agreements was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey. But that deal, which allowed Ukraine to transport grain across the Black Sea, now lies in tatters, another sign that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is digging in for an extended conflict.

Part of the reason that peace talks have failed so far is that both Ukraine and Russia are focused on grinding out territorial gains on the battlefield. And as the war has stretched on, the fighting is spreading, with Ukraine openly taking credit for attacks deep behind Russian lines. Attack drones are becoming an increasingly frequent sight in Moscow.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has proposed a 10-point plan that would hold Russia accountable for war atrocities, and require it to surrender all captured Ukrainian territory and pay what could be hundreds of billions in reparations for war damage, demands the Kremlin flatly rejects.

Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russias foreign ministry, said in a statement on Monday that Russia would discuss the results of the talks with other BRICS nations an acronym encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that participated in the meeting. She described Mr. Zelenskys proposal as a senseless ultimatum to Russia, aimed at prolonging hostilities.

Even so, the gathering in Jeddah, a Saudi port on the Red Sea, focused on some elements of Mr. Zelenskys plan. The participants, the E.U. official said, agreed to start working groups to address issues including global food security, nuclear safety, environmental security, humanitarian aid, the release of prisoners of war and the return of children separated from their families.

Over the last two days, Mr. Zelenskys chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, held bilateral meetings with representatives of more than 30 countries. On the messaging app Telegram, he listed many nations: the United States, Britain, Germany, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. He did not say whether he met with representatives from China or India.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Mr. Zelensky, said Monday that the only basic foundation for negotiations was the Ukrainian presidents proposal. There can be no compromise positions, he added in a post on social media.

Matina Stevis-Gridneff contributed reporting.

See original here:
Ukraine Detains Woman Accused of Trying to Track Zelensky's ... - The New York Times

A Ukrainian serviceman of the 3rd Independent Tank Iron Brigade looks out of a tank hatch at a position near the front line in Kharkiv region, on June 15, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images

With help from Paul McLeary

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If Ukraines supporters were hoping for a breakthrough after Kyivs forces made a new push in the southeast of the country last week, they were sorely disappointed.

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Ukraine now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades, said one of the DOD officials, who like others interviewed for this newsletter was granted anonymity to discuss operational details. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots.

They are making mostly small, incremental gains on all three axes, the official said. They are still facing stiff Russian resistance second and third layers of defenses.

Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER referred questions about the counteroffensive to the Ukrainian military, but noted that it has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.

Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia will use artillery and helicopters to drop more mines behind them, trying to trap units between minefields, according to a person who advises the Ukrainian government.

The American-made Vampire counter-drone systems, a laser-guided missile launcher that can be quickly installed in a truck bed, are finally arriving, which will give the front lines a small, mobile air defense capability that could potentially help protect those units, the person said.

The Biden administrations latest package of military aid for Ukraine clocked in at $400 million for additional air defenses, artillery and other ammunition, as well as armored vehicles and anti-armor weapons. DOD expects another tranche to be announced as soon as early next week.

Ukrainian forces are eagerly awaiting the arrival of the U.S. Armys M1 Abrams main battle tank, which is expected as soon as early September and will help punch through Russias defensive lines. But as the operation grinds on, DOD officials expect the counteroffensive will last at least through the fall and possibly into the winter.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

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Many of todays military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

STATES WATCHFUL EYE: The State Departments internal watchdog is scrutinizing the circumstances surrounding the suspension of a top diplomats security clearance, our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN reports.

In the letter sent on July 21, the acting head of the State Departments Office of Inspector General, DIANA SHAW, told a group of Republican senators that her office is looking into the suspension of ROB MALLEYs security clearance, taking a step that could lead to a formal investigation.

Until late April, Malley helmed the Biden administrations efforts to restart a nuclear deal with Iran. But his security clearance was suspended on April 22, according to a person with knowledge of the move, for reasons that remain unknown. Despite losing his access to classified information, Malley kept doing limited work at State for more than two months. But when CNN reported that the clearance had been suspended, he went on unpaid leave.

PENTAGON SUSPENDS TRAINING WITH NIGER: The U.S. military has suspended its mission of training and advising Nigers armed forces, a DOD official told Lara today, although the two countries continue to cooperate on logistics and maintenance support to keep base operations functioning.

The 1,100 U.S. forces in the country are mostly restricted to Agadez, the drone base built by the U.S. military in 2019 for counterterrorism operations, for force protection, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive operations. However, there are some troops posted at outstations around the country and a few service members assigned to the embassy in the capital of Niamey as well.

Because weve suspended training for the most part, normally you would leave the base to go to a training area those types of activities arent occurring, the official said.

The Pentagon is continuing to monitor the situation and is in communication with the U.S. Embassy in Niger as well as the Nigerien armed forces, but the situation remains fluid, the official said. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY spoke with his Nigerien counterpart, Armed Forces Chief of Defense Lt. Gen. ISSA ABDOU SIDIKOU, by phone on Sunday to discuss the safety of Americans and the developing situation in the country, according to Milleys spokesperson Col. DAVID BUTLER.

Washington has no plans to evacuate its citizens from Niger even as France and Italy move forward with plans to get their people out, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today.

We dont have any indications of direct threats to U.S. citizens or to our facilities, and so we have not changed our posture, he said, adding that the U.S. is monitoring the situation in Niger literally by the hour.

As Western countries watch the chaos unfolding in Niger, the military junta detained members of ousted President MOHAMED BAZOUMs political party and Cabinet, possibly to use them as hostages in case of military intervention, a senior member of Bazoums party told the Wall Street Journals BENOIT FAUCON and GABRIELE STEINHAUSER on Monday.

The detentions are a setback to the Economic Community of West African States, which has been attempting to broker a deal with the military junta to return Niger to civilian rule and reclaim legitimacy after lagging responses to recent coups in West Africa. ECOWAS has given Niger an ultimatum to return to democracy or risk military intervention from the regional bloc.

FOOL ME TWICE: Russian officials blamed Ukraine after a drone hit the same building in central Moscow for the second time in two days, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

The drone electronically jammed and lost control before crashing into a complex of nonresidential buildings in Moscow city, the Russias defense ministry said in a statement. The skyscraper houses the ministries of digital development, economy and industrial development, the New York Times VICTORIA KIM reports.

Two other drones were destroyed by air defenses over the Odintsovo and Narofominsk districts in the Moscow region, the ministry added. No one was injured in the attacks.

The strike comes after the Times reported that at least three different Ukrainian-made drones have been used to attack inside Russia, though Ukrainian officials have declined to claim or deny responsibility.

NO VISA, NO PROBLEM: U.S. observers are assessing the border conditions for Palestinian-Americans traveling through Israel as part of an emerging visa waiver deal between Washington and Jerusalem, four officials told Reuters NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and NUHA SHARAF.

The U.S. has tentatively agreed to allow Israelis to travel to the States without a visa, but in exchange, Washington demanded that all Americans, regardless of background, receive the same privilege in Israel. Such a measure would overhaul travel restrictions for tens of thousands of Palestinian-Americans in the West Bank.

In a six-week trial period that began in mid-July, Israel must demonstrate that its admitting citizens without differential treatment for admission to the U.S. visa waiver program.

Meanwhile, Hungarians werent so fortunate today, as Washington sharply limited their access to visa waivers over security concerns regarding new passports issued between 2011 and 2020, our own LILI BAYER reports.

ITS TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [emailprotected] and [emailprotected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While youre at it, follow the rest of POLITICOs national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.

TAKE IT AWAY, EUROPE: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said he would call on European partners to take the lead on supporting Ukraine and bringing the war to a sustainable conclusion if hes elected president.

Europeans need to do their fair share. I think the fact that we have drawn down our ammunition to crisis levels, some of our weapons stocks we have other contingencies we have to be worried about, DeSantis told Fox News Monday night. We need a sustainable peace in Europe without rewarding Putins aggression.

His remarks are similar to recent comments by 2024 GOP frontrunner DONALD TRUMP, albeit much more blunted. In late July, Trump said Europe needs to start matching Washingtons contribution and send another $100 billion in aid to Kyiv.

But competition with China would be DeSantis main priority, he said, allocating more resources to the Indo-Pacific region to counter Beijings influence. Hed also plan to focus on issues closer to home, such as the southern border crisis.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced today that its pulling 1,100 troops deployed to the southern border earlier this year from their mission on Aug. 8, the APs TARA COPP and REBECCA SANTANA report. Four hundred troops will remain there until Aug. 31, a defense official told the AP.

HACKING THE NATION: Around 8 million government IP addresses across all 50 states are ripe for adversaries to exploit, according to a report out today, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

Securins latest State of Cybersecurity study discovered 119,000 instances of high-risk services in their scan of government domains nationwide.

The findings come amid a steady barrage of ransomware attacks that have been costly to U.S. government organizations, with an estimated price tag of $70 billion in damages from 2018 to October 2022, according to a report last year from Comparitech.

SIGN ME UP: Our colleagues are launching a new daily tech podcast this Wednesday POLITICO Tech, a daily download on the disruption that new innovations are bringing to politics and policy.

From AI and the metaverse to disinformation and microchips, itll explore how such technology is shaping our world driving the policy decisions, global rivalries and industries that will matter tomorrow.

LAW OF WAR UPDATE: Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) applauded the Pentagon for clarifying its Law of War manual to better protect civilians in conflict, a measure she pushed for months ago alongside Sen. DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.).

So glad that the Pentagon has heeded my calls with @SenatorDurbin to update the Law of War manual the rules of the road for our military engagements to ensure that were doing everything we can to avoid civilian harm, she tweeted today.

Both lawmakers sent a letter to DODs General Counsel CAROLINE KRASS in February, urging the department to address areas of concern in the Law of War. The update further explains which people are protected, and includes a section outlining precautions military personnel can take to assure a civilian isnt harmed.

MIXED EMOTIONS: President JOE BIDEN made the call to keep Space Command in Colorado, and lawmakers whod lobbied for it to be moved to Alabama arent so happy.

Its clear that far-left politics, not national security, was the driving force behind this decision, House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said in a statement. The administrations shameful delay to finalize the decision warranted the opening of a Congressional investigation, he argued, adding that this fight is far from over.

It was irresponsible for the president to yank a military decision out of the Air Forces hands in the name of partisan politics, Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.) piled on in a statement.

Theres been intense speculation in the Senate that TOMMY TUBERVILLEs (R-Ala.) battle against the Pentagons abortion travel policy would drag down Alabamas bid. Sen. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.), however, said Tubervilles holds on military promotions, while very frustrating, did not affect the decision-making process at all.

On a bad day, it bugs the living daylights out of me. But its completely separate from Space Command, Hickenlooper said. In my opinion, I believe thats how the Defense Department looked at it. And I think thats how the White House looked at it.

DONT SAY THAT: A federal lawsuit claims an Indian-American engineer working with a missile defense contractor in Alabama was fired after he was heard speaking Hindi in a video call, the Associated Press reports.

ANIL VARSHNEY, who has worked at Parsons Corporation for over a decade, filed the civil rights suit against the company and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, whose department oversees the United States Missile Defense Agency. AL.com first reported the news.

This case arises out of Defendants intentional acts to end Mr. Varshneys highly distinguished engineering career because he is a 78-year-old Indian American, according to the lawsuit. Defendants abruptly terminated Mr. Varshney after one of his white colleagues overheard him speaking Hindi to his dying brother-in-law in India and falsely reported him for a violation of security regulations.

Varshney took the Facetime call in an empty cubicle, the lawsuit reads, and the company fired him for using the application at the classified work location. He claims there was no such company policy against such use. Parsons has denied wrongdoing and asked for the lawsuit to be dismissed.

RETIREMENT FUNDS FACE CHINA PROBE: The House Select Committee on China is investigating Blackrock and MSCI for facilitating investments in Chinese companies with alleged ties to the Chinese military and Chinas human rights abuses, WSJs KATE OKEEFFE and CORRIE DRIEBUSCH report.

In a letter first obtained by the Journal, Chair MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.) and ranking member RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Illi.) allege that in moving massive flows of American capital to entities flagged by the U.S. government, Blackrock and MSCI are exacerbating an already significant national-security threat and undermining American values. The committee said it was specifically looking at Americans retirement savings and how asset managers are investing them in Chinese firms.

Blackrock and MSCI are defending their investment practices. They also maintain they are engaging with the committees inquiry.

RICK WATERS, the State Departments former top China policy official, has joined Eurasia Group, Reuters MICHAEL MARTINA reports.

GIL CISNEROS, the Pentagons head of personnel and readiness, announced he is leaving his post in September. He is a Navy veteran and former member of Congress.

JOHN BOLTON, The Hill: Erratic, irrational and unconstrained: What a second Trump term would mean for Americas foreign policy

JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Ukraines plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy

LIANA FIX and ZONGYUAN ZOE LIU, Foreign Affairs: Berlins delicate balance with Beijing

The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Unraveling Chinas strategic re-engagement in Myanmar

The Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Securing American competitiveness: the importance of critical supply chains in strategic rivalry with China

The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: Utilizing data literacy in the military

Washington Post Live, 3 p.m.: Generative artificial intelligence and the future of technology

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who we wish we could overthrow and replace with Gregory.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would rule this newsletter democratically, for once.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of todays military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

Originally posted here:
No breakthrough yet in Ukraine's counteroffensive - POLITICO - POLITICO

Photos have emerged from the Russian tanker Sig that was struck by Ukrainian unmanned surface drone near the Kerch Strait on Friday night, and the damage appears significant. This attack was the second successful drone boat strike on Russian ships in the Black Sea in the 24 hours.

Waist-deep black, oily water had flooded the ship's engine room after the attack. Topside, the bridge's windows were shattered and its pilothouse buckled from the shockwave from hundreds of pounds of explosives detonating after the boat contacted Sig's hull.

The damage would fit with video from onboard the drone used in the attack, with impact at the waterline near the engine room.

Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department, the tanker has been previously documented transiting the Bosphorus carrying fuel to the main Syrian oil refinery in Baniyas.

Ukraine has also issued its own warnings to ships operating around six Russian ports on the Black Sea. The waters near the ports of Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and Sochi are declared areas of war risk until further notice.

Kyiv previously warned in July that ships transiting the Black Sea to Russian or Russian-occupied ports may be considered by Ukraine as carrying military goods with all the corresponding risks. In a tweet on Saturday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated bluntly, "It's time to say to the Russian killers, "Its enough." There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas."

The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies reported that in June 2023, Russia exported 4.9 million tons of oil through the Black Sea aboard 42 tankers. Should Ukraine begin targeting Russian tankers in the Black Sea, as well as other cargo vessels, the Black Sea Fleet could have to add escort duty to its mission to protect the shipping lanes. Still, protecting against USVs is very challenging for warships under direct attack. A chain of cargo vessels would still be very vulnerable even under protection of Russian naval ships.

Before we head into the latest news from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can catch up on our previous rolling coverage here.

In its latest intelligence update, the British Ministry of Defense called the successful drone attack on the Russian Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak a significant blow to the Black Sea Fleet.

The landing ship, now moored pierside in Novorossiysk with a 30-40 degree list, almost certainly suffered serious damage, per the update. The list suggests several watertight compartments were breached. Additionally, the update noted that Olenegorsky Gornyak has often ferried military and civilian traffic between Russia and occupied Crimea after attacks disrupted the Kerch Strait Bridge traffic.

Air raid warnings and explosions from intercepts rocked much of Ukraine late Saturday afternoon as cruise and ballistic missiles headed for targets in the country's interior. There are unconfirmed reports that part of these strikes including a mass attack against Starokostiantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, home to the Su-24M Fencers of the Ukrainian 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade. Notably, the units jets are Ukraines delivery system for U.K.-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which have been used to deadly effect deep behind Russian lines.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky reported the missile attacks targeted Motor Sich, an aircraft engine manufacturer in the region. It remains unknown whether any missiles reached their targets and if Motor Sich or the Su-24 base suffered damage, if the latter was indeed targeted as some are claiming.

If the Su-24 base was targeted in a concentrated manner, it is indicative of just how big a threat Russia sees the Storm Shadow as being. Unreliably able to intercept these cruise missiles in flight, hitting the Fencers and/or the weapons themselves on the ground could be the best chance to limiting the number of Storm Shadow strikes in the future.

Notably, Saturdays raid reportedly included at least one launch from within Belarusian territory. Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles are often launched from Belarus via their MiG-31 carrier aircraft.

However, as alerts ended in Ukraine, residents in the Kaluga and Tula regions of Russia reported the sounds of explosions and air defense missile launches, indicating a possible simultaneous or retaliatory raid by Ukraine. It is also possible that the commotion as Russian in origin. Russia has certainly launched SAMs by mistake before. Still, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense later tweeted ominously Two can play that game.

Saturdays raid comes after several notable revelations about Ukraines air defense efforts against Russian attacks from an excellent piece by Maxim Tucker in The Times. Among them that, one of Ukraine's air defenders says Kyiv was nearly evacuated last December before MIM-104 Patriots arrived to defend the capital region. Ukraines new AIM-132 ASRAAM-based air defense system was also a new bit of information. You can read our full story and analysis here on that. But there were other major points, including those Tucker highlighted in a thread on Twitter today. Among them:

-Ukraine fires over 160 Patriot interceptors a month and their are concerns that supplies will dry up and Russia will try to finish what it started last Winter by knocking out Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

-Russia is going after Su-24 launch aircraft for Storm Shadow due to its effectiveness and the bases they inhabit need better air defenses. This would jive with today's report on a mass strike against an Su-24 base.

-Patriot has been highly effective against Iskander SRBMs and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles.

In the south, Ukraine has expanded its bridgehead over the Konka River in the Dnipro delta regions of Kherson Oblast. Video shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian troops on the left (east) bank of the river as the Ukrainians work to widen the bridgehead.

At the other end of the frontline, Russian sources claim troops have taken Novoselivske, north of Svatove, after a series of assaults over previous days.

In its assessment of the Luhansk Axis, the Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) reported that Russian forces have intensified attacks toward Kupiansk, Lyman, and Svatove, with pitched fighting ongoing along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims a Su-30 Flanker intercepted and drove off a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea. Moscow says it detected the drone approaching its border and as the Su-30 approached, the Reaper turned back.

A huge explosion followed a Ukrainian attack on a Russian ammunition depot near the village of Zaitseve outside Horlivka. As the first fireball and smoke plumes dissipate, numerous secondary explosions from stored munitions send debris tumbling out across the road.

Finally, Ukraine is finishing its work to replace the old Soviet coat of arms on its Motherland monument in Kyiv. The Ukrainian trident, or tryzub, arrived at the towering monument on Saturday.

Thats all for now. Well update this story when theres more to report on Ukraine.

The rest is here:
Ukraine Situation Report: Photos Show Damage To Russian Tanker After Drone Boat Strike - The War Zone

One summer evening as the sun sank behind the Dnipro River, the mammoth waterway that bisects Ukraine, Anatolii Volkov walked along a river beach, head down.

A Ukrainian archaeologist, Mr. Volkov looked as if he was just taking a stroll. But he was actually examining the mostly dried-up ground of a former reservoir that has revealed a treasure trove of artifacts after a catastrophic explosion at the Kakhovka dam sent 4.8 trillion gallons of water gushing downstream, emptying the reservoir and scraping away the sand and silt that had covered the objects for centuries.

Look at this, he said.

He bent down and picked up an object about two inches long. He rubbed his fingers over the grooves.

Pottery shard, he said. Bronze Age. Three thousand years old. At least.

Even before the war, Ukrainian archaeologists had their hands full in a big country rich with archaeological sites and not many expert diggers to study them. But when the conflict erupted in February 2022, it made their painstakingly slow and methodical work that much harder.

Russian troops smashed into history museums and looted priceless antiquities. The soldiers and their war machines moved into archaeological sites, including ancient burial grounds. Some sites became engulfed in frontline fighting. So have many Ukrainian archaeologists themselves, who, like other professionals, have enlisted in the army to fight for their country. Some have been killed.

In that bleak tableau, the plethora of artifacts littering the reservoir area has been a small but welcome recompense. The dam was blown up in June, most likely by Russian forces trying to swamp Ukrainian troops and cut off one of the only crossings left on the Dnipro. The destruction triggered horrendous flooding and drained the reservoir, which had been one of the largest lakes in Europe.

In the weeks since, Ukrainian archaeologists and scavenger hunters have discovered all sorts of things: pieces of stone axes at least 1,000 years old; Nazi-era helmets; an old bridge; Cossack cannon balls from the 17th century; and flint rock from the Russo-Turkish wars of the 18th century (a lot of war stuff, actually).

Theres never been anything like this, said Yevhen Synytsia, chairman of the Ukrainian Association of Archaeologists. Its crazy.

Its also deeply meaningful.

The war in Ukraine is, at its heart, a battle for Ukrainian identity. Vladimir V. Putin, Russias leader, has constantly belittled Ukrainian independence and taken the same dim view of Ukraine as Soviet strongmen like Stalin and the czars before him. In their eyes, the country is nothing more than a Russian appendage, lacking a distinct culture, language and history.

This is precisely where the Ukrainian archaeologists come in.

Were finding pieces of ancient culture, our ancient culture, said Viacheslav Sarychev, the scientific secretary of the Khortytsia National Reserve at the northern reaches of the reservoir area. Piece by piece, were distancing ourselves from Russia.

This is extremely important to us, he added.

The objects are washed, sorted, examined and cataloged. Mr. Volkov has hundreds of them scattered across his desk and on the windowsill behind him at the Khortytsia reserve, where he works. Hes just one member of a growing team of archaeologists pouring in.

For a profession that measures things in centuries, the archaeologists feel an unusual pressure to work fast. First, there are the underground archaeologists, as the real archaeologists call them, opportunists who have shown up in recent weeks to sneak onto the lake bed in search of pieces for the underground antiquities trade.

Police officers have already apprehended several men walking around the restricted areas with metal detectors and big headphones.

But then theres the bigger pressure of all this potential history disappearing again. Ukrainian officials have said that when the war is over, they will rebuild the dam, which will refill the lake, which will bury all the potential finds again.

This area was plunged underwater in 1956, when the dam was completed as part of a major hydroelectric plant. Soviet archaeologists had surveyed it, though, as Mr. Synytsia said, no one paid any attention to Ukrainian identity back then.

So much was lost, he added.

Khortytsia is a cradle of Ukrainian history. An island sitting in the middle of the Dnipro River, it has been inhabited by humans for thousands of years. It was full of deer and rabbits and thick with bushes, the perfect pit stop for early travelers heading down the Dnipro on their way to the Black Sea.

More recently, say, 500 years ago, it became a fortress for the Zaporizhzhian Cossacks, a military community from the eastern European steppes that played a prominent role in building a Ukrainian state.

Many of the most interesting discoveries from the dam disaster have been found just off the islands rocky shores. Ukrainian archaeologists were ecstatic a few weeks ago to excavate a 20-foot-long oak boat half-buried in the sand and carved with mysterious symbols. It was at least five centuries old.

What Mr. Volkov unearths on his evening forays is usually more modest; chips of ancient pots, say, or crooked Cossack nails. However fragmented or rusty, theyre all interesting. Archaeologists like him think deeply about the passage of time and what happens to things as the centuries wash over them.

We call it archaeological intelligence, Mr. Volkov said.

He spoke as he walked, head down, looking for more treasures.

It was nearly night, and the sky was turning a rich dark blue, the color the reservoir used to be before it dried up into miles of cracked clay.

Oleksandra Mykolyshyn and Evelina Riabenko contributed reporting.

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'It's Crazy': The Scramble for Ancient Treasures After Ukraine's Dam Disaster - The New York Times