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WAGNER Group warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin fears Ukraine has built up a 200,000-strong reserve of troops ready to launch a huge counter-blitz.

The Russian billionaire has warned his feared mercenary army to "prepare for the worst".

Ukrainian political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko denied the country's armed forces has extra troops trained and ready to strike.

But he added that if Kyiv did, the soldiers would attack the Wagner Group.

Putin's "favourite chef"Prigozhinhas been waging war in eastern Ukraine - but with 50,000 men the private army would be heavily outnumbered should they come to blows with 200,000 reserve troops.

Prigozhin, who heads the group, said they have used reconnaissance satellites to spot the reserves.

In a post published by Concord group on Telegram, he said: "There is a joke that ends with the phrase: 'So big, but you believe in fairy tales'.

"Therefore, the political scientist Ishchenko and other very positive kind guys may turn out to be the best military analysts in the world.

"But I think that it is better to prepare for the worst, especially since there are already all tendencies towards this.

"And who sees how many people, I can say this: 'Tell me, who in our country has reconnaissance satellites, except for Wagner PMC?Therefore, we see 200,000 Ukrainian reserves, but we dont see 60,000 UAF soldiers fleeing in fear'."

Prigozhin - dubbed Putin's chef - was doubling down on comments he made last month as he claimed Ukraine was preparing for an attack along the eastern frontline.

But ruthless Prigozhin could be attempting to drum up more supplies for his troops by exaggerating, according to think tank Institute for the Study of War.

The research group said: "Prigozhins exaggerated statements about the imminent threat to Russian forces are likely an attempt to secure more supplies and reinforcements from the Russian MoD to save his forces in Bakhmut."

The UK Ministry of Defence reported in December that the Wagner Group was using readily available convict recruits as expendable soldiers to feed Putins war machine as he takes on heavy losses.

The recently liberated lags traded in their long prison sentences for military service, but also likely death.

One defected convict-soldierdescribed being used as cannon fodderin Putins wargames.

He was later suspected to have been killed by the Wagner Group.

Prigozhin is reported to have personally toured the penal colonies for recruits to take a major role in Russias eastern offensive -including in the bloodiest battles forSoledarand Bakhmut.

It comes as Putin has a 45-mile-long trench dug across Ukraines invaded Zaporizhzhia region.

TheRussian tyrantsmove is in preparation for a counter-offensive fromKyivsforces.

The deep scar across the countryside can be seen from space and was captured in images taken by the Sentinel-2 satellite.

Putin appears worried about holding the region despite illegally annexing itinto the Russian Federation.

TheWorld War One-style mega-trench has been highlighted by the Ukrainian Centre for Journalistic Investigations.

It is nearly 50 miles behind the current front line, indicating Putins fear as to how far back his forces could be pushed.

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Russia trembling as Putins Wagner Group warlord claims Ukraine is preparing massive attack with 200,000 t... - The Sun

BUCHA, Ukraine (AP) Ukrainians marked the anniversary Friday of the liberation of Bucha with calls for remembrance and justice after a brutal Russian occupation that left hundreds of civilians dead in the streets and in mass graves, establishing the town as an epicenter of the wars atrocities.

We will not let it be forgotten, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a ceremony in Bucha, vowing to punish those who committed outrages there that are still raw. Human dignity will not let it be forgotten. On the streets of Bucha, the world has seen Russian evil. Evil unmasked.

Buchas name has come to evoke savagery by Moscows military since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Ukrainian troops who retook the town near Kyiv found the bodies of men, women and children on the streets, in yards and homes, and in mass graves. Some showed signs of torture.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, fighting continued Friday: Russia used its long-range arsenal to bombard anew several areas, killing at least two civilians and damaging homes.

And the Kremlin-allied president of neighboring Belarus raised the stakes when he said Russian strategic nuclear weapons might be deployed in his country, along with part of Moscows tactical nuclear arsenal. Moscow said earlier this week that it planned to place in Belarus tactical nuclear weapons, which are comparatively short-range and low-yield. Strategic nuclear weapons, such as missile-borne warheads, would bring a greater threat.

At the official commemoration in Bucha, Zelenskyy was joined by the Moldovas president and the prime ministers of Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia.

The Kremlins forces occupied Bucha weeks after they invaded Ukraine and stayed for about a month. When Ukrainian troops retook the town, they encountered horrific scenes. Over weeks and months, hundreds of bodies were uncovered, including children.

Russian soldiers, on intercepted phone conversations, called it zachistka cleansing, according to an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series Frontline.

Such organized cruelty, which Russian troops also employed in other conflicts such as Chechnya, was later repeated in Russia-occupied territories across Ukraine.

Zelenskyy handed out medals to soldiers, police officers, doctors, teachers and emergency workers in Bucha, as well as to the families of two soldiers killed during the defense of the Kyiv region. A woman and her daughter wept and nodded as they accepted an award.

Ukrainian people, you have stopped the biggest anti-human force of our times, he said. You have stopped the force which has no respect and wants to destroy everything that gives meaning to human life.

Ukrainian authorities documented more than 1,400 civilian deaths, including 37 children, in the Bucha district, Zelenskyy said. More than 175 people were found in mass graves and alleged torture chambers, he said. Ukraine and other countries, including the U.S., have demanded that Russia answer for war crimes.

Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin alleged Friday that many of the dead civilians were tortured. Almost 100 Russian soldiers are suspected of war crimes, he said on his Telegram channel, and indictments have been issued for 35 of them.

A Ukrainian court has sentenced two Russian servicemen to 12 years in prison for illegally depriving civilians of liberty, and for looting.

I am convinced that all these crimes are not a coincidence. This is part of Russias planned strategy aimed at destroying Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation, Kostin said.

In Geneva, the U.N. human rights chief said his office has verified the deaths of more than 8,400 civilians in Ukraine since Russias invasion a count believed to be far short of the true toll. Volker Trk told the U.N. Human Rights Council that severe violations of human rights and international humanitarian law have become shockingly routine during Russias invasion.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, along with announcing the possibility of the deployment of Russian strategic nuclear weapons on his countrys soil, called for a cease-fire in Ukraine. A truce, he said in his state-of-the-nation address in Minsk, must be announced without any preconditions, and all movement of troops and weapons must be halted.

Its necessary to stop now, before an escalation begins, Lukashenko said, adding that an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive using Western-supplied weapons would bring an irreversible escalation of the conflict.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that Russia has to keep fighting, again claiming Ukraine has rejected any talks under pressure from its Western allies.

Peskov also dismissed remarks by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn that the European Union was mulling the deployment of peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, calling that extremely dangerous.

Russia has maintained its bombardment of Ukraine, with the war already in its second year. Along with the two civilians killed Friday, 14 other civilians were wounded early Friday as Russia launched missiles, shells, exploding drones and gliding bombs, the Ukraine presidential office said.

Two Russian missiles hit the city of Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region, damaging eight residential buildings, the office said. Nine Russian missiles struck Kharkiv, damaging residential buildings, roads, gas stations and a prison. And Russian forces shelled the southern city and region of Kherson.

A barrage at Zaporizhzhia and its outskirts caused major fires.

___

Hanna Arhirova reported from Kyiv. Jamey Keaten contributed to this report from Geneva.

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Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Ukraine marks grim Bucha anniversary, calls for justice - The Associated Press

4 Mins Ago

U.S. and Romanian forces take part in a demonstration as part of the rotation of U.S. troops of the U.S. Army 101st Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base near Constanta, Romania.

The positioning of the 101st Airborne's Army combat brigade in Romania is part of an enhanced military presence along NATO's eastern flank that has taken root in the aftermath of Russia's war on Ukraine, on a mission aimed at deterring potential aggression on NATO's southeastern flank.

Soldiers take part in a demonstration of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

An Apache helicopter takes off during a demonstration as part of the rotation of US troops of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

A soldier takes part in a demonstration of the US Army 101 Airborne division during the brigade rotation at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

Soldiers take part in a demonstration of the US Army 101 Airborne division during the brigade rotation at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

Soldiers take part in a demonstration of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

A medevac Black Hawk helicopter flies during a demonstration as part of the rotation of US troops of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

Boeing CH-47F Chinook tandem rotor helicopters (Vertol) transport military vehicles during a demonstration as part of the rotation of US troops of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

A Romanian-made tank TR-85 'Bizonul' (The Bison) fires during a demonstration as part of the rotation of US troops of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

Different types of helicopters, among them Chinook, Black Hawk and Apache, fly during the final display formation as part of the rotation of US troops of the US Army 101 Airborne division at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base (RoAF 57th Air Base) near Constanta, Romania on March 31, 2023.

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

Daniel Mihailescu | AFP | Getty Images

An Hour Ago

An undated ID photo of journalist Evan Gershkovich. - A US reporter for The Wall Street Journal newspaper has been detained in Russia for espionage, Russian news agencies reported Thursday, citing the FSB security services.

- | Afp | Getty Images

Several major newsrooms called on Russia to immediately release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich.

"We are deeply troubled by Russia's detention of Evan Gershkovich, a respected Wall Street Journal reporter whose coverage of Russia has been fair and accurate at a time when the world needs reliable information," the newsrooms of Bloomberg, Politico, The New York Times and The Washington Post wrote in a joint statement.

"Evan's detention is intended to have a chilling effect on independent journalism and deprive the public of essential news," the newsrooms wrote.

On Thursday, a Russian court decided that Gershkovich will remain in detention until May 29.

Amanda Macias

2 Hours Ago

China cannot be a mediator in the war in Ukraine as it leans too much toward the invader Russia but it could play the role of facilitator to reach a peace deal with Moscow, the European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said.

"China does not distinguish between aggressor and victim of aggression," Borrell told a panel at the Spanish capital Madrid. "China doesn't call for a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine."

But China should use its influence over Russia to pressure for peace in Ukraine, he added.

In Borrell's view, the only peace plan on the table is the one presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in November, including demands to withdraw Russian troops and restore Ukraine's territory to the status quo before Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Borrell's comments echoed the call by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing for Chinese leader Xi Jinping to talk to the Ukrainian president and learn first-hand about Kyiv's peace formula.

Reuters

3 Hours Ago

Disarmed unexploded ordnance that Russia fired at Kharkiv is gathered at a collection point in the northeastern Ukrainian city.

Disarmed unexploded ordnance fired by Russia onto the city of Kharkiv are seen at a collection point in Kharkiv, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 30, 2023.

Wolfgang Schwan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Disarmed unexploded ordnance fired by Russia onto the city of Kharkiv are seen at a collection point in Kharkiv, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 30, 2023.

Wolfgang Schwan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Disarmed unexploded ordnance fired by Russia onto the city of Kharkiv are seen at a collection point in Kharkiv, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 30, 2023.

Wolfgang Schwan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Disarmed unexploded ordnance fired by Russia onto the city of Kharkiv are seen at a collection point in Kharkiv, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 30, 2023.

Wolfgang Schwan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Wolfgang Schwan | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

4 Hours Ago

A team inspects the produce in the ship carrying wheat from Ukraine to Afghanistan after inspection in the open sea around Zeytinburnu district of Istanbul, Turkiye on January 24, 2023.

TUR Ministry of National Defence | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Three ships carrying 136,766 metric tons of agricultural products left Ukraine's ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk.

The vessels are destined for China and Turkey and are carrying corn and wheat.

TheBlack Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia's naval blockade and saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen. The deal was extended this month for 120 days.

So far, more than 700 ships have sailed from Ukrainian ports since the deal began.

Amanda Macias

4 Hours Ago

The Olympic rings standing in front of the Olympic Stadium in Tokyo on July 20, 2021 ahead of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

BEHROUZ MEHRI | AFP | Getty Images

The International Olympic Committee's decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete in the Olympic Games is "an attempt to turn a blind eye to Russia's crimes in Ukraine," said Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine's Parliament commissioner for human rights.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, more than 260 Ukrainian athletes and coaches have died, Lubinets said.He added on his official Telegram channel that at least 350 sports facilities were destroyed or damaged.

Amanda Macias

5 Hours Ago

Members of the media ask questions to U.S. President Joe Biden as he walks to the Marine One helicopter to depart for travel to Mississippi to view tornado damage, from the White House in Washington, U.S., March 31, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

President Joe Biden called on Russia to release U.S. citizen and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was detained on Thursday on accusations of espionage.

"Let him go," Biden told reporters when asked what his message was to Russia.

Senior Biden administration officials spoke to Gershkovich's family following the arrest, the White House said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday said the U.S. State Department is seeking immediate consular access to Gershkovich.

Amanda Macias

7 Hours Ago

Moldova has said a Russian missile violated its airspace amid a fresh assault on Ukraine.

Ucg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Moldova's Parliament voted to extend its state of emergency by 60 days in response to what the government deemed to be persistent threats from Russia's "hybrid war."

"The extension of the state of emergency is a necessary constitutional tool because we are still facing elements of Russia's hybrid war against the Republic of Moldova," Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said in televised comments before the vote.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu warned in February of what her government believed to be Russian plans to carry out a coup d'etat and put the country "at Russia's disposal."

A small European country on Ukraine's western border, Moldova has suffered political and economic upheaval amid the war, including within its separatist, pro-Russian breakaway state of Transnistria. It is a landlocked country, and one of Europe's poorest.

Moldova has however strengthened ties with the West in recent years, and received EU candidate status last June, on the same day as Ukraine something that has angered Moscow, which sees the post-Soviet country as being within its sphere of influence.

Natasha Turak

7 Hours Ago

Norway's massive sovereign wealth fund has not been able to divest from Russia more than a year after the full-scale war in Ukraine began, the Norwegian finance ministry said.

Olso decided it must divest from its Russian holdings shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but says that sanctions impacting the bank it uses have prevented it from doing so.

"The concrete and practical problem is that the custodian bank that we use is under sanctions, and can't assist us with settlement of transactions, and neither with voting on shares" in Russian companies, the fund's deputy chief executive officer, Trond Grande, said in late January. "So therefore the situation is deadlocked. There is no way we can either sell or buy or vote on these shares."

Norway's sovereign wealth fund, which at $1.3 trillion in assets is one of the largest in the world, holds shares in 47 Russian companies and some state bonds, which at the end of 2021 were worth a cumulative $2.4 billion, according to Reuters. Bloomberg reported in January 2023 that the value of the holdings had dropped to $292 million.

"The market for trading in Russian financial instruments is still subject to comprehensive sanctions and has not been normalized as of March 2023," Norway's finance ministry said in a document Friday.

Natasha Turak

7 Hours Ago

Karen Khachanov of Russia plays a backhand during his men's Singles Quarter Final match against Denis Shapovalov of Canada on Day Nine of The Championships - Wimbledon 2021 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 07, 2021 in London, England.

Clive Brunskill | Getty Images

In 2022, Russian and Belarusian athletes were barred from competing at the Wimbledon tennis tournament in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Lawn Tennis Association (LTA) and All England Club (AELTC) announced the reversal of the bans on Friday, allowing citizens of the two countries to partake if they compete as "neutral" athletes and comply with certain conditions. Those conditions include signing a declaration of neutrality that would forbid them from expressing support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, accepting funding from Russia or Belarus, or receiving sponsorship from organizations linked to those governments.

The LTA had been hit with fines as a result of the previous ban, and said if it stayed in place, there was "a real prospect of the termination of our membership" which would cancel its events in other parts of the UK.

Ian Hewitt, chairman of AELTC, said: "We continue to condemn totally Russia's illegal invasion and our wholehearted support remains with the people of Ukraine. This was an incredibly difficult decision, not taken lightly or without a great deal of consideration for those who will be impacted."

"It is our view that, considering all factors, these are the most appropriate arrangements for The Championships for this year," he said, adding that "if circumstances change materially between now and the commencement of The Championships, we will consider and respond accordingly."

Read the full story here.

Natasha Turak

8 Hours Ago

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg addresses a joint press conference with the Swedish prime minister in Stockholm on March 7, 2023, following a meeting with all Swedish party leaders who are in favor of a Swedish NATO membership.

Jonathan Nackstrand | AFP | Getty Images

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he looks forward to "also welcoming Sweden as a full member" of the defense alliance "as soon as possible," following Turkey's ratification of Finland's NATO membership on Thursday night.

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Ukraine war live updates: Wimbledon reverses ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes; Turkey approves Finland's NATO membership - CNBC

Over a year after Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine fragmented the worlds geopolitical landscape, the strength of President Vladimir V. Putins friendships faces a test: Will world leaders who intended to host him in the coming months still be willing to welcome a wanted man?

The International Criminal Courts arrest warrant for Mr. Putin, accusing him of bearing criminal responsibility for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children, could thrust his allies into thorny domestic and foreign legal disputes, whether or not their countries are members of the court, international relations experts say.

Many governments staked out their positions just days after the warrant was issued. Germany, like several other I.C.C. member states within the Wests core coalition, was unequivocal in saying it would arrest Mr. Putin and send him to The Hague if he were to enter its territory, as it is obligated to do under the requirements of being party to the court.

At least one Russian ally and I.C.C. member, Hungary, declared the opposite, claiming it would not enforce the warrant because it would not have grounds to arrest Mr. Putin under Hungarian law.

The chances that Mr. Putin could stand trial soon are low. Still, the Kremlin raised the stakes with a pre-emptive warning, announcing that Moscow would consider an arrest of Mr. Putin overseas to be a declaration of war. The Kremlin has also threatened an ally, Armenia, over its moves to join the court, Russian state-owned news agencies reported.

South Africa, an I.C.C. member state, faces particular scrutiny because it has already invited Mr. Putin to the annual summit of BRICS nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that will be held in the coastal city of Durban this August.

The South African government has leaned into longstanding ties with Moscow since the invasion, and it drew criticism from the United States for holding naval drills with Russia and China in February.

India, another longtime ally of Moscow, could also face scrutiny come September, when it will host the Group of 20 summit. India is not party to the I.C.C., so it will not be under the same legal pressure to arrest Mr. Putin, if he attends, as South Africa. But both nations decisions will speak volumes about how they, as emerging powers, want to be perceived, said Alonso Gurmendi Dunkelberg, a departmental lecturer in international relations at the University of Oxford.

The BRICS countries have positioned themselves as an alternative to Western-dominated alliances, and Mr. Gurmendi said that their response to Mr. Putins arrest warrant could become an early example of the blocs becoming an actual force in international affairs.

Indian officials have so far stayed silent on how they might approach Mr. Putins potential visit to their country in September, and China, which, like Russia, is not a member of the I.C.C., has expressed disapproval about the courts decision to issue a warrant.

Officials in Brazil, which is a member of the court, have kept their comments ambiguous.

But while South Africas foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, said in a radio interview that her ministry was awaiting a refreshed legal opinion on the matter, she gave a glowing endorsement of her nations relationship with Russia on Thursday.

We have made it clear that Russia is a friend, Ms. Pandor said during a meeting in Pretoria with Russias minister of natural resources that was part of regular economic cooperation between the countries.

She highlighted the help received from the Soviet Union in the fight against apartheid, adding, While we are friends with many all over the world, we cannot become sudden enemies at the demand of others.

South Africas cabinet has not yet received the legal opinion on the matter from the Foreign Ministry and hasnot yet discussed what to do regarding Mr. Putin, one of the presidents top ministers, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, said on Thursday.

Much of the governments handling of the question of what to do about Mr. Putin seems to be entangled in internal factional politics, said Leaza Jernberg, an international relations analyst in Johannesburg. The African National Congress, the governing party since the end of apartheid, is deeply divided, and some in the party and in the governmentremain staunchly loyal to Russia, she said.

The countrys main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has said that South African officials should withdraw Mr. Putins invitation if they would be unwilling to arrest him. Allowing him into South Africa without arrest could tarnish the countrys reputation and lead to economic repercussions from allies, like sanctions, said Darren Bergman, a member of Parliament with the Democratic Alliance who works on international relations.

South Africa is no stranger to this dilemma.

It was at the center of a media circus in 2015 when Omar Hassan al-Bashir, then the Sudanese president, attended an African Union meeting in Johannesburg while he was under an I.C.C. warrant for war crimes, genocide and other charges linked to the conflict in Sudans Darfur region, where nearly 300,000 people were killed.

At the convention center, Mr. Bashir sat in open sessions, staring stoically as photographers crowded around him. He also posed for a group photograph with the other leaders, who would not be drawn into questions about the warrant.

At a court hearing seeking to compel South Africa to arrest Mr. Bashir, lawyers for the government argued that the Sudanese leader had diplomatic immunity and attended the meeting as a guest of the African Union. The court eventually ruled that South African officials were obliged to execute the arrest but Mr. Bashir had already left the country on his presidential jet from a military base.

That Mr. Bashir, who was ousted from power after a popular uprising in 2019, remains at large is a prominent example of the I.C.C.s limitations. But at the time, Ms. Jernberg said, South Africa had the cover of arguing that it was standing in solidarity with other African nations, who felt that their leaders were often unfairly targeted.

Mr. Putins case could play out very differently. In part because the war in Ukraine threatened Europes security, it mobilized international criminal justice efforts in a way that none of us in the human rights and accountability space have seen before, said Gissou Nia, the director of the Atlantic Councils Strategic Litigation Project.

Mr. Putins stronger presence in global affairs could also create avenues for diplomatic pressures in a way that Mr. Bashirs case did not. A potential boycott from the leaders of major democracies of the Group of 20 summit, for example, could pose a global embarrassment for Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, who would then have to decide whether his relationship with Mr. Putin was worth it, Ms. Nia said.

I cant imagine, she added, that the leaders of world democracies are very keen to appear in photo ops with Putin.

Lynsey Chutel contributed reporting from Johannesburg.

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The Latest: War in Ukraine: Finland Clears Last Hurdle to Join NATO ... - The New York Times

When President George W. Bush gave his mission accomplished speech on board the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln only six weeks into the Iraq War in 2003, it quickly became a cautionary tale against declaring victory in an unpredictable war. Washington didnt withdraw most of its forces until eight years later, and the pullout resembled defeat much more than victory.

When President George W. Bush gave his mission accomplished speech on board the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln only six weeks into the Iraq War in 2003, it quickly became a cautionary tale against declaring victory in an unpredictable war. Washington didnt withdraw most of its forces until eight years later, and the pullout resembled defeat much more than victory.

Twenty years later in Ukraine, the risk is not declaring victory prematurelybut not defining victory at all.

For more than a year now, Ukraines Western supporters have provided it with the weapons, munitions, funds, and political support to push back Russian invading forces. With this help, Ukraine has been able to regain about half the territory Russia has occupied since Feb. 24, 2022. It is a remarkable and undeniable success.

But Ukraines supporters have shied away from defining the outcome they aim to achieve with their aid. Is it for Ukraine to liberate its entire territory, including Crimea, by military force? Is it to push Russia back to the line that existed before Feb. 24, 2022, restoring a status quo ante that leaves Russia in control of Crimea and the Donbas? Is it to enable another Ukrainian push on the battlefield, followed by a cease-fire and negotiations that somehowthough it is unclear howinduce Russia to withdraw from Ukraine?

Western ambiguityleaving open what victory meansmade sense in the early phase of the war. With a wide range of possible outcomes, ambiguity allowed for a flexible framing of victory and defeat: Even if Russia were successful on the battlefield, its success could still be framed as an overall strategic defeat that isolates it in the eyes of the world. Ambiguity was also a useful way to avoid telegraphing any limitations of Western support to Moscow or demoralizing Ukrainian forces with unattainable goals or timelines. Hence the frequent Western talking point of supporting Kyiv with whatever it takes for as long as it takeswhich sounds forceful enough, until you ask what it is.

In the second year, the situation is much less uncertain. Although Ukraine is still targeted by Russian missiles and frontline battles remain unimaginably brutal, the potential trajectories of this war have narrowed. Kyiv will not fall, and Ukraine will not be overrun by the Russian army. Ukraine is also unlikely to lose the territory it has already liberated, as Russias unsuccessful winter offensive made clear. But even if there is greater clarity about battlefield contingencies, there is still no strategic clarity about what victory means.

Western publics are getting contradictory signals from their leaders on this question. Most often, Western officials say it is up to the Ukrainians to define what victory means. In reality, however, the most important factor for achieving victory is the type, quantity, and arrival date of Western weapons and munitions in Ukraine, which gives the West a major influence on the outcome. And whenever Ukraine brings up its own definition of victorya return to Ukraines lawful 1991 borders, including Crimea, by force, if necessarymany Western leaders (apart from Central and Eastern Europeans) refuse to wholly commit to this outcome, presumably out of concern that a fight over Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, could lead Moscow to escalate in some unpredictable way.

This creates a dangerous political vacuum in the midst of a war that has been, to a great extent, fought by narratives. If Ukraines supporters fail to benchmark victory, Russia will. If the West focuses on its own fears of escalation, the Kremlin will fan those fears with renewed threats of nuclear war. Not defining victoryand, in turn, not defining Russian defeatallows Russia to negate Ukraines successes and to frame a Ukrainian victory as unattainable. Without a clear aim, Western publics will increasingly perceive the war as a protracted, indeterminate struggle, ultimately undermining Ukraines moral high ground and the Wests own morale. Ukraine and the West therefore need to provide a benchmark for victory in this stage of the war.

Continued Western ambiguity also contributes to a polarized debate between advocates for quick negotiations and those who support a full military victory for Ukraine. The sobering reality is that neither of theseearly negotiations or complete liberationis the most probable scenario. Negotiations would very likely lead to a temporary cease-fire instead of a sustainable peace, pausing a war that Russian President Vladimir Putin can resume at any time. He has committed to subjugating Ukraine as his lifes legacy. He has enshrined into law the annexation of four regions of Ukraine. It is folly to believe that Putin will let Ukraine be. He may not have started this war primarily for domestic power purposes, but keeping Russia in a constant war-like, half-mobilized state has turned into his best chance to stay in power. Reassured by Chinese President Xi Jinping that China supports his regime and fight against the West, Putin does not need an off-ramp or exit strategy.

At the same time, the Wests willingness and ability to continue providing the current massive flow of military support to Ukraine is not indefinite. Right now, Western countries are arming Ukraine to bring it into the best possible position for a spring and summer offensive. After that, contentious negotiations in the U.S. Congress over future support for Ukraine and a U.S. presidential primary season await. Meanwhile, Europe could face another winter with high energy prices. Support for Ukraine will not stop, but the peak of Western weapons deliveries may have been reached. That means 2023 is Ukraines best chance to get as far as it can. But even under these favorable circumstances, a full military victorymeaning the liberation of all of Ukraines territoryis a tall order for this year. More likely, and perhaps the best-case scenario, is a successful breakup of the land bridge between Russia and Crimea, isolating Russian forces in the south and making their position there untenable.

To right-size both overly optimistic and overly pessimistic expectations, Ukraine and the West should benchmark an interim victory that is realistic to achieve this year. Instead of giving ambiguous answers to the question of what victory means, Western leaders should state publicly that their aim for this spring and summer is a return at least to the lines before 2022 and that they will supply Ukraine with everything needed to reach this objective. While the overall goal remains restoring Ukraines full territorial integrity, setting a clear benchmark for an interim victory would provide an anchor point for Western publics in the strategic communication of this war. It fills the discursive vacuum with a specific goal that Western publics can support and counters Russias strategy of framing Ukrainian victory as unattainable.

In NATO parlance, this interim victory should be the floor, not the ceiling. If Ukraine can advance even further, that would be a huge and welcome success. If not, the pre-2022 lines are an important preliminary milestone. It would turn back the clock to Feb. 23, 2022, and apply the weapon of futility against Russia itself. With a restoration of the status quo ante, Russian sacrifices since the start of the war would appear entirely in vain. The total loss of all territories gained at such a heavy cost may plant the seeds of doubt in the minds of Russias soldiers, public, and elites: What was this war for if we are now back to where we started? In many unsuccessful wars of the pastincluding Russias in Afghanistan and the United States in Iraqa pervasive and demoralizing sense of futility turned into a powerful enemy at home and on the battlefield. The constant dripping of doubt can wear away any great power.

Of course, a return to the pre-2022 lines is a less satisfactory outcome for Ukraine and its supporters than Russias full military defeat or negotiated withdrawal. However, it is a useful, realistic, and clear-to-communicate benchmark. Defining an interim victory this way will help bolster public support in the West and undermine Putins objectives at home. It will not be possible to say mission accomplished with this outcome. But an interim victory is better than not defining any victory at all.

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How the West Should Define Victory in Ukraine - Foreign Policy