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Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a ceremony formally annexing four regions of Ukraine Russian troops occupy, at the Kremlin in Moscow on Friday. Gavriil Grigorov/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a ceremony formally annexing four regions of Ukraine Russian troops occupy, at the Kremlin in Moscow on Friday.

MOSCOW Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to formally annex four Ukrainian territories, signing what he calls "accession treaties" that world powers refuse to recognize. It's Putin's latest attempt to redraw the map of Europe at Ukraine's expense.

"The people made their choice," said Putin in a signing ceremony at the Kremlin's St. George hall. "And that choice won't be betrayed" by Russia, he said.

The Russian leader called on Ukraine to end hostilities and hold negotiations with Moscow but insisted that the status of the annexed territories was not up for discussion.

"I want the authorities in Kyiv and their real overlords in the West to hear me: The residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are becoming our citizens," Putin said. "Forever."

From left: Moscow-appointed head of Kherson region Vladimir Saldo and head of Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Denis Pushilin, leader of self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, at a ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday to sign treaties for the four regions of Ukraine to join Russia. Grigory Sysoyev/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP hide caption

From left: Moscow-appointed head of Kherson region Vladimir Saldo and head of Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Denis Pushilin, leader of self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Leonid Pasechnik, leader of self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, at a ceremony at the Kremlin on Friday to sign treaties for the four regions of Ukraine to join Russia.

Putin was joined by Moscow-backed separatist leaders and Kremlin-appointed officials from the four regions, as senior Russian lawmakers and dignitaries looked on.

Outside the Kremlin, preparations were under way for a rally with banners saying that Russia and the newly integrated territories are "together forever."

People approach screens located near the Kremlin and Red Square before the live broadcast of a ceremony to declare the annexation of the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Moscow on Friday. Russian authorities held referendums in the occupied areas of Ukraine that were condemned by Kyiv and governments worldwide. Reuters hide caption

People approach screens located near the Kremlin and Red Square before the live broadcast of a ceremony to declare the annexation of the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in Moscow on Friday. Russian authorities held referendums in the occupied areas of Ukraine that were condemned by Kyiv and governments worldwide.

The move caps a week that saw the Kremlin choreograph referendums in Russian-occupied territories that purportedly delivered overwhelming majorities in favor of joining Russia.

Ukraine and its Western allies denounced those votes as "shams," in violation of international law.

United Nations chief Antnio Guterres, President Biden and other world leaders have condemned these actions.

"The United States condemns Russia's fraudulent attempt today to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory. Russia is violating international law, trampling on the United Nations Charter, and showing its contempt for peaceful nations everywhere," President Biden said in a statement Friday morning, as his administration announced fresh sanctions on Russia for its annexation of the Ukrainian regions.

"The United States will never, never, never recognize Russia's claims on Ukraine sovereign territory," President Biden said Thursday at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington. "This so-called referenda was a sham an absolute sham and the results were manufactured in Moscow." The administration announced fresh sanctions on Russia Friday for its annexation of the Ukrainian regions. Oliver Contreras/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

"The United States will never, never, never recognize Russia's claims on Ukraine sovereign territory," President Biden said Thursday at the U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit in Washington. "This so-called referenda was a sham an absolute sham and the results were manufactured in Moscow." The administration announced fresh sanctions on Russia Friday for its annexation of the Ukrainian regions.

The sanctions target government officials and leaders, as well as their family members, and officials of the Russian and Belarusian military. As part of the action, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Friday 14 international suppliers for supporting Russia's military supply chains.

"We will hold to account any individual, entity or country that provides political or economic support for Russia's illegal attempts to change the status of Ukrainian territory," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

In this photo released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads a meeting National Security and Defense Council meeting in Kyiv. He announced that his country is submitting an "accelerated" application to join the NATO military alliance. Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP hide caption

In this photo released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads a meeting National Security and Defense Council meeting in Kyiv. He announced that his country is submitting an "accelerated" application to join the NATO military alliance.

On Friday afternoon, the president told reporters, "America and its allies are not going to be intimidated by Putin and his reckless words and threats."

"He can't seize his neighbors' territory and get away with it," Biden said, noting that the United States would "stay the course" and send more military equipment and resources to Ukraine.

Biden warned the Russian president that "America is fully prepared with our NATO allies to defend every single inch of NATO territory."

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he was applying for "accelerated" NATO membership for his country.

In this photo released by Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, back center, leads a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council in Kyiv on Friday. Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP hide caption

In this photo released by Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, back center, leads a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council in Kyiv on Friday.

"De facto, we have already completed our path to NATO," he said. "De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the alliance's standards, they are real for Ukraine real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction. We trust each other, we help each other and we protect each other. This is what the alliance is."

Ukraine has adopted NATO-style conventions within its military, and has grown increasingly dependent on NATO-standard weapons sent by member countries. As he delivered his address, Zelenskyy stood in front of his office in his signature green t-shirt alongside his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and parliament chair Ruslan Stefanchuk. The three signed a declaration for Ukraine's accession into NATO.

"The entire territory of our country will be liberated from this enemy," said Zelenskyy. "Not only Ukraine's enemy, but also an enemy of life itself, humanity, law and truth."

He called for peace negotiations with Russia, but only after Putin is no longer president.

In Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the alliance's "commitment to support Ukraine." He called Putin's recent actions "the most serious escalation since the start of the war."

Regarding Ukraine's potential membership, Stoltenberg told reporters that "NATO's door remains open," but said "a decision about membership has to be taken up by all 30 allies. Of course we take these decisions by consensus. Our focus now is on providing immediate support for Ukraine to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian brutal invasion."

In Washington, President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters the U.S. continues to believe that NATO should have an open-door policy and said it was up to the 30 allies in NATO to make determinations. But, he added: "Right now, our view is that the best way for us to support Ukraine is through practical, on-the-ground support in Ukraine, and that the process in Brussels should be taken up at a different time."

In this image released by the Ukrainian Police Press Service, the view from a drone shows the site of a Russian rocket attack in Zaporizhzhia on Friday. A Russian strike on the Ukrainian city killed at least 23 people and wounded dozens, an official said Friday, just hours before Moscow planned to annex more of Ukraine in an escalation of the seven-month war. Ukrainian Police Press Office via AP hide caption

In this image released by the Ukrainian Police Press Service, the view from a drone shows the site of a Russian rocket attack in Zaporizhzhia on Friday. A Russian strike on the Ukrainian city killed at least 23 people and wounded dozens, an official said Friday, just hours before Moscow planned to annex more of Ukraine in an escalation of the seven-month war.

At the United Nations, Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution condemning its annexation of Ukrainian territory. The vote was 10-1, and four countries abstained China, India, Brazil and Gabon.

Putin framed the annexation decision as a historical justice following the breakup of the Soviet Union that had left Russian speakers separated from their homeland and the West dictating world affairs according to its own rules.

"The West decides who has a right to self-determination ... who gave them that right?" said Putin.

The Russian leader argued the U.S. was the world's aggressor, leaving a history of destruction and oppression in its wake.

Friday's ceremony echoed Putin's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, following a Kremlin-backed referendum there in 2014 a move that most countries still do not recognize to this day.

Once again, Western powers accused Russia this month of using the guise of staged votes to justify its annexation of Ukraine's territory often at the barrel of a gun.

Indeed, just hours before Friday's ceremony, Putin formally recognized the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as "independent" from Ukraine despite Russian forces controlling only a portion of the territory.

In a reminder of the ongoing fighting, a missile in Zaporizhzhia struck a bus stop and checkpoint, killing 23 and injuring scores. Ukraine blamed the attack on Russia. Moscow's proxies in the area said Ukrainian forces had launched several strikes in the area.

The other two regions Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine's eastern Donbas were recognized as independent by Moscow back in February. At the time, Putin signed a security pact with them, which he then used as justification to send Russian troops into Ukraine days later.

Formal ratification of the territories into the Russian Federation will now move to Russia's parliament and constitutional court whose approval is widely seen as a foregone conclusion.

The Russian government's annexation has unfolded as it works to deploy an additional 300,000 troops to bolster its military campaign amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has retaken territory in the south and northeast of Ukraine.

Western officials have pointed to the timing as evidence of Kremlin desperation to solidify Russian gains before their lines collapse further. Zelenskyy has accused Moscow of seeking to mobilize Ukrainians in annexed areas for the military campaign as well.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have openly warned that the newly incorporated territories would be entitled to protections under Russia's nuclear umbrella.

Julian Hayda contributed to this report from Kyiv.

More:
Putin illegally annexes territories in Ukraine, in spite of global opposition - NPR

Russias retreat from a key Ukrainian city over the weekend elicited outcry from an unlikely crowd state-run media outlets that typically cast Moscows war in glowing terms.

A series of embarrassing military losses in recent weeks has presented a challenge for prominent hosts of Russian news and political talk shows struggling to find ways to paint Ukraines gains in a way that is still favorable to the Kremlin.

Frustration with the battlefield setbacks has long been expressed in social media blogs run by nationalist pundits and pro-Kremlin analysts, and the volume grew after Ukraines counteroffensive last month around Kharkiv in the northeast. But it is now spilling out on state TV broadcasts and in the pages of government-backed newspapers.

The less conciliatory tone from state-run media comes as President Vladimir Putin faces widespread Russian discontent about his partial mobilization of reservists and as government officials struggle to explain plans to annex Ukrainian regions at the same time they are being retaken by Kyivs forces.

The Russian defeat in Kharkiv (region) and Lyman, combined with the Kremlins failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space, Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

On Sunday, after Ukraine recaptured Lyman, a city in the east that Russian troops had used as a key logistics and transport hub, Putins media allies dropped the niceties and more directly criticized his military, saying tougher measures were necessary for the sake of victory.

What happened on Saturday, Lyman it is a serious challenge for us, Vladimir Solovyov, host of a prime-time talk show on state TV channel Russia 1 and one of the Kremlins biggest cheerleaders, said on air Sunday. We need to pull it together, make unpopular, but necessary decisions and act.

Ukrainian forces retook Lyman one day after Moscow celebrated its illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions, including Donetsk, roughly 40% of which now including Lyman - is under Kyivs control.

The move paves the way for Ukrainian troops to potentially push even further into land that Moscow illegally claims as its own. Ukrainian forces scored more gains in their counteroffensive across at least two fronts Monday, advancing in the very areas Russia moved to absorb.

The leader of Chechnya, a Russian region in the North Caucasus, blamed the retreat in Lyman on one general. In an online post, Ramzan Kadyrov, an outspoken supporter of the Kremlin, said the generals incompetence was being covered up for by higher-up leaders in the General Staff, and called for more drastic measures to be taken.

A story about the Lyman retreat in Russias popular pro-Kremlin tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda, painted a bleak picture of the Russian military. The story, published Sunday, said the Russian forces in Lyman were plagued by supply and manpower shortages, poor coordination, and tactical mistakes orchestrated by military officials.

Its like it has always been, according to an unnamed soldier quoted in the story who was part of the group that retreated from Lyman to Kreminna, another strategically important city that is in the sights of the Ukrainian army. There is effectively no communication between different units.

Posting on the social media app Telegram, Russian war correspondents working for state media were also abuzz with reports of the retreat, and some expressed concern about Ukraines further push towards Kreminna.

It turns out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed through our defense 30 kilometers in the direction of Luhansk in two days ... So they dont even let (the Russian forces) settle near Kreminna. Wow, Russia 1 war correspondent Alexander Sladkov wrote on his Telegram channel that currently has almost 940,000 followers.

Hosts of popular news and political talk shows on the state Russia 1 TV channel on Sunday described the loss of Lyman as a tough situation.

On Sunday, solders quoted by state-run media gave analyses of the situation that at least partly meshed with Putins: They blamed the Russian armys difficulties on NATO, saying that members of the alliance provided weapons and even fighters to Ukraine.

It is not a game, it hasnt been a game for a long time already, one soldier told a Russia 1 reporter in the Donetsk region. It is a painstaking, clear offensive of the NATO army.

To back up his claim, the soldier claimed that communications intercepted by the Russian army feature people speaking Romanian and Polish; he didnt explain how he or other soldiers could recognize either of the languages.

Media personalities also echoed the argument that Putin has been making.

Prime-time show host Solovyov in his program on Sunday stressed that Moscow is not dealing with Ukraine were past that. Were dealing with the entire NATO bloc, with the might of its military industrial complex.

He warned not to wait for good news from the battlefield any time soon. One must have a long will and strategic patience, Solovyov said.

See the original post here:
Frustration with Ukraine war spills out on Russian state TV - The Associated Press

Ukraines counteroffensive against Russia is defying the odds, and it has sent Russian President Vladimir Putin to a new point of desperation: On Friday, he announced that Russia had, in an illegal move, annexed four occupied regions in Ukraine.

Earlier in the week he mobilized hundreds of thousands of Russians, as just as many Russians seem to be fleeing the country to avoid fighting in the conflict.

Over the weekend, Russian troops retreated from Lyman. Attention is now being focused on Ukrainian gains in Kherson, one of the regions that Putin had annexed.

But there are still big questions about where the war goes from here and what will shape the conflict this winter and onward. To understand them, I spoke with experts on Europe, Russia, and international security, and listened to European leaders speaking candidly on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week.

Three determining factors will play an outsized role in Ukraines future: support from America and European partners, the risks that Putin is willing to take, and the conflicting definitions of what victory might look like.

The war is being fought in Ukraine, and Ukrainians are certainly suffering most. But the costs incurred by Ukraines primary backers, the United States and Europe, will determine Ukraines capacity in defending itself against Russia. Without Western support, Ukraines recent victories in the counteroffensive will be difficult to sustain.

Western support for Ukraine is a crucial variable. The sanctions that the US, Western Europe, and some Asian countries have imposed on Russia continue to have a boomerang effect on the world economy. The winter ahead will change the fighting conditions on the ground and, equally importantly, the cold weather will remind Europe of its dependence on Russian fossil fuels for heat. If inflation continues and the energy crisis looms, will the US and an at times divided Europe become fatigued with the war and become less inclined to support it?

The US has sent more than $14 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. With each package comes new questions around whether this volume of security aid can be sustained not just economically, but whether enough missiles and bullets exist in Western stockpiles to bolster Ukraine. Some defense experts are warning that the conflict is consuming weapons stockpiles faster than nations can refill them.

The Wests willingness to continue to send weapons may also depend on Ukraines momentum on the battlefield, says Kristine Berzina, a security researcher at the German Marshall Fund. If the underdog is doing well, even if things are hard, theres something in our societies where supporting the underdog as it takes on the big bad guy successfully its just a good story. How can you not help them? she said. Whereas if it feels pessimistic and terrible and depressing, well, then it feels like a lost cause.

A recent survey fielded by Data for Progress and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft suggests that only 6 percent of Americans polled see the Russian war in Ukraine as one of the top three most important issues facing America today. It ranked last, far behind inflation, the economy, and many domestic issues.

Another recent survey of 14 countries in Europe and North America from the German Marshall Fund found that in Italy, France, and Canada, climate is viewed as the primary security challenge, while the countries closer to Russia and Ukraine, on the eastern edges of Europe, named Russia or wars between countries

Though American military aid has been robust, Europes support has been much more mixed, with some European countries spending less on the war than they are spending on imported Russian oil and gas. That point about the difference between the kind of aid that has been provided to Ukraine versus whats been paid in oil revenue, it just blows my mind every time I hear it, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the Transatlantic program at the Center for a New American Security and a former US intelligence official with ties to the Biden administration, said recently on the New York Timess Ezra Klein Show. Why is it happening? I wish I knew. I dont have a good answer, she said.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, told me that the European Commission has not held up its commitments. She says the sluggishness in disbursing economic aid to Ukraine is partly political but mostly due to bureaucratic hurdles.

So far, European countries, even Hungary, have largely supported Ukraine. But for European leaders staunchly backing Ukraine, political challenges may emerge as the war further exacerbates domestic economic issues. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnsons exit this summer was hastened by the economy and inflation, issues whose multiple causes include the effects of the Ukraine conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in June. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghis government was split over Ukraine; it wasnt the only reason for the collapse of his coalition, and now the far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is his successor. The war was not the immediate cause of any political leaders downfall, but political changes in Europe are a reminder that governance is deeply connected to the emerging energy and economic crises.

If support in Europe wanes, theres also the question of whether the US will be able to rally it. Since the Cold War, the US has put most of its military and diplomatic focus on first the Middle East and then, more recently, Asia. Washington just has no real grasp of Europe today, doesnt understand the centrality of the European Union, and tries to operate as if it doesnt exist, Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me in June, in advance of a NATO summit.

The Biden administration has been hugely successful in dispatching US diplomats to unify Europe, but Washington is still operating with a deficit on the continent and without a deep understanding of a sustainable long-term Europe policy.

Putins announcement of the annexation of Russian-held territories in Ukraine was a show of weakness, as was his partial mobilization of 300,000 troops. His unpredictability is a major X factor.

Its unlikely that the mobilization will be effective because Russia doesnt seem to have the highly trained personnel or advanced weapons to quickly alter their position in the war. There will be bodies who will be there but they will not have equipment, they will not have significant training, and they will not really have the provisions for the conditions theyre going into, especially given that were again heading into the cold season, Berzina said.

That could mean an increasingly desperate Putin. Its quite existential for him. It always has been, said Jade McGlynn, a researcher of Russian studies at Middlebury College. His whole entire idea of what Russia is this great messianic power depends on having Ukraine.

Nowhere has that desperation been more apparent than in the rhetoric surrounding nuclear weapons. In the early hours of the war, Putin threatened consequences you have never seen against Ukraines supporters, and again in recent days he has offered veiled threats of using a small nuke. That would be norm-shattering and earth-shattering, figuratively and literally. Even threatening to use a nuke violates the norms of international relations.

Putin in his remarks on Friday emphasized that the United States was the only country that had used a nuclear weapon, (twice) on Japan during World War II. It seemed to be a retort to Bidens United Nations speech last week in which he chastised Putin for his reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the non-proliferation regime while minutes later praising President Harry Truman, the president who authorized those nuclear attacks.

Another concern is, if things continue to go badly for Putin, whether he will expand the theater of war to other fronts and countries.

In the category of desperate acts falls what may potentially be an act of self-sabotage, a Russian attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline that was reported earlier this week. It raises concerns that Russia may attack other critical energy infrastructure in Europe.

The nationalists in Russia, according to McGlynn, may pose the biggest threat to Putin, as they push him toward even more extreme means. They want him to go all-in on the war, even as the mobilization wont likely alter Russias footing.

The extent to which Putin might be willing to repress Russians is also important. The calling up of reserves is one indicator, as is the shuttering of the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta and other media outlets, and the arrests of critics and activists. That intensity of repression also limits the possibility for Russian domestic opposition standing up to Putin.

The country that so many analysts predicted would fall in the first week of the invasion in February has endured the first 200 days of war, and Ukrainians say they are confident in carrying on the fight so long as they have ample support from the West.

A senior Ukrainian official, speaking recently in New York on the condition of anonymity, said that Ukraine was united in its war against Russia and hugely depends on Western support. The truth is that the battlefield today is the negotiating table with Putin. Because he respects strength, they said.

We are going to fight until we defeat Russia, Oksana Nesterenko, a Ukrainian legal scholar currently at Princeton University, told me. Not because Ukrainians are so brave or have so many resources, she explained. Its about the future of the Ukrainian nation, about the future of Ukrainian democracy, Nesterenko says. We dont have any choice.

But there is a great deal of confusion as to how anyone defines victory. The Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Americans havent talked in specific terms about what we consider an acceptable outcome to this conflict, Thomas Graham, a Russia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me.

While the Ukrainians have expanded their demands in light of their successful counteroffensive and are now talking about nothing short of retaking the territory Russian has occupied since 2014, the United States and each European country seem to hold their own perspective. The Germans and the French, at the leadership level, would accept a negotiated solution that might include some territorial concessions on the part of Ukraine as a way of de-escalating and helping deal with what they see as an increasingly difficult socio-economic situation, Graham said.

On the Russian side, Putin initially claimed to want the demilitarization and de-Nazification in essence, regime change of Ukraine. And now he has annexed four provinces that he has long sought. The possibility that Russia could win on its terms, that possibility is now very remote, says Michael Kimmage, a Catholic University professor who specializes in Russia. I do think that we could, in a very worrisome way, enter into a nihilistic phase of the conflict where Russia is not able to impose victory on the war, but will try to impose defeat on the other side. And maybe thats the Russian version of victory in this war.

That would mean stretching the war on as long as possible, hence the massive mobilization, and the possibility of a war of attrition. McGlynn says that Putins notion of victory is at this point divorced from what the Russian army can actually do. What were most likely to see is a way to entrench a situation on the ground in areas that they already control, she told me.

In Washington, meanwhile, there has been little talk of what diplomacy among the parties might look like. Its not that a team of negotiators is going to hash out a settlement over carryout, but ongoing diplomatic engagement between the US and Russia is going to be needed on a variety of levels and in a variety of forums to set the conditions for a future resolution and even to address the narrow goal of averting any potential misunderstanding that could end up looking like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia expert Fiona Hill who served in the Trump administration recently emphasized to the New Yorker the risks of Putins brinkmanship and the misunderstanding it breeds. The problem is, of course, us misreading him, but also him misreading us, she said. More communication could help. But Secretary of State Tony Blinken hasnt met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov since January 2022 (they had a frank phone call in July). And the recent Data for Progress survey emphasized that a majority of Americans would like to see more diplomacy. A majority (57 percent) of Americans support US negotiations to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, even if it means Ukraine making some compromises with Russia, writes Jessica Rosenblum of the Quincy Institute.

The wars endgame may be a long way off. Still, its no small feat that Turkey has brokered a deal to get Ukrainian grain to countries that need it and Saudi Arabia arranged for a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. In the meantime, Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan hosted talks between senior officials from Azerbaijan and Armenia last week, but the Biden administration has hardly been discussing avenues for diplomacy with Russia.

Though Graham praises President Bidens handling of the war in Ukraine, he worries that the with-us-or-against-us rhetoric from the White House precludes opportunities for engagement with Russians. If I fault the administration in any way I dont think it has articulated in public what this conflict is really about, he told me. The US has alienated broad swaths of the Russian population through sanctions, and Biden has framed the conflict as an existential one between democracy and autocracy.

Existential conflicts have a way of not persuading the other side, perhaps, to negotiate a solution to this problem that meets their needs, their minimal security requirements, Graham told me. In general, I think it is inappropriate to frame conflicts as a struggle between good and evil.

Update, October 3, 10:45 am: This story was originally published on October 1 and has been updated to include Russias retreat from Lyman.

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Ukraine is staying united in its war against Russia. What would victory look like? - Vox.com

For about seven months, Aleksey had been largely untouched by the war in Ukraine. Like many others in the big cities of Russia, he was able to continue working and living his life.

But that changed in mid-September, after Aleksey boarded a flight headed for his hometown of Ulan-Ude, the capital of the Republic of Buryatia, which sits around Lake Baikal in the Siberian region of Russia. (Aleksey is not his real name; CBC agreed to change his name to protect him from potential reprisals.)

Aleksey was going for a short trip to visit friends and family he hadn't seen since moving to the western side a few years ago. The roughly 6,000 kilometres between the two regions means planessometimes have a layover in countries south of the Russian border.

This was one of those flights, which meant Aleksey had to take his passport with him something for which he would later be extremely grateful.

That's because on Sept. 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists young men who had previously gone through the country's mandatory conscription in order to continue the war in Ukraine.

While Putin declared the mobilization to be nationwide, those most affected are Russia's ethnic minorities among them, the people of Buryatia (referred to as Buryat).

Aleksey had spent a few days in Buryatia before Putin's televised address, hoping the president's decision wouldn't result in a mass conscription of his people.

"We still had the hope that this would all settle, the draft notices wouldn't come," said Aleksey.

But it wasn't worth the risk of waiting it out. That night, he and his friends quickly packed their bags and co-ordinated their escape. Aleksey's international flight to Buryatia meant he had his passport with him, making a last-minute departure from Russia feasible. The next day, he and his friends left.

But not all Buryat are as lucky.

The recent Russian mobilization comes as Ukraine reclaims an increasing percentage of its previously lost territory.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyytouted the army'srecent counteroffensive victory in Lyman on Saturday, as videos of Ukrainian soldiers taking down Russian flags and hoisting their ownbegan circulating.

Melissa Chakars, a professor at Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia and an expert on Buryatia and the Mongolian peoples of Russia, called the mobilization a "big shift in the war."

"[Putin] claimed that [drafting] was going to be spread throughout the regions so people were expecting that a certain percentage of people from each region [were] going to be taken," said Chakars.

She said that while people from the more central cities, especially Moscow and Saint Petersburg, hadbeen able to operate withoutmuch fear of the draft, Putin's mobilization announcement had "changed things."

Protests, which had largely dwindled since the early days of the invasion in February, erupted across the country and spurred an exodus of almost 300,000 Russians to neighbouring borders within five days of Putin's televised address, according to reporting done by Novaya Gazeta.Novaya Gazeta, whose editor-in-chief is Nobel Peace laureate Dmitry Muratov, was forced to cease operations in early September due to the war and is now operating in exile out of Riga, Latvia.

While Russian men in metropolitan areas were now being conscripted, the mobilization largely reinforced existing trends in terms of which populations provided the most fighters.

At the start of the war, reports indicated many men from Buryatia were sent to fight in the war. The region also suffered a significant number of casualties. By Sept. 23, 275 identified men from Buryatia had been killed in the war, according to an independent count by Mediazona and BBC News's Russian service.

The only Russian region with a higher casualty rate is the Republic of Dagestan, with 305 identified men killed in action. However, the total population of Dagestan is more than three million; Buryatia isless than a million.

While Buryat are indigenous to the region, with their own language, many of them never learn that language, and instead only speak Russian.

The reason for high drafting rates in the ethnic regions, especially Buryatia, is twofold.

First, the communities of Buryatia are largely clustered around Lake Baikal, and drafting men from more remote regions of the country means any potential opposition to the war would likely come far away from Moscow or Saint Petersburg, Chakars explained.

The other piece of the story is that these areas are typically quite low-income.

"Buryatia is one of the poorest regions in all of the Russian Federation. Traditionally, the military is a steady job," Chakars said.

Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the antiwar organization Free Buryatia Foundation (FBF), said the distribution of draft notices in Buryatia late last month resembled more of a raid.

"People from different age groups were getting it, disabled people and even people that are no longer alive," she said. In at least one report, a man who died two years ago from COVID-19 received a draft notice.

"They are grabbing everyone they can and sending them to the war," Garmazhapova said. "This is not a partial mobilization, but a full mobilization."

According to reports, between 3,000 and 5,000 men were mobilized from Buryatia on the first day of the announcement.

One man had an officer and a teacher appear at his front door in the middle of the night between Sept. 21 and 22. He was served with the draft notice and forced to sign it, Garmazhapova said.

"The only reason he opened the door was because he thought it was his brother returning home from work," she said. "If he knew it wasn't his brother, he definitely wouldn't have opened the door."

Under current law, citizens are obligated to open the door to the police. Citizens are also legally required to report to conscription offices once they've been served and sign their draft notices. But some began refusing to open their doors.

Garmazhapova relates the story of another man who didn't open his door to officers who wanted to serve him with his notice. Eventuallytheyleft, and the man thought he had avoided being sent to the war.

WATCH | Russian men head for the borders to avoid the draft:

But while filling up his car at the gas station the next day, he saw a bus coming from his village filled with men who had been freshly drafted. The bus stopped at the gas station and the man was forcibly taken on board.

"Without his things, without his documents they took him," said Garmazhapova. "The car was left at the gas station and his relatives had to come and take the car back home. There are a lot of stories like this."

In a rare social media video, Yanina Nimaeva from Ulan-Ude addresses the leader of Buryatia, Alexei Tsydenov, on why her 38-year-old husband and the father of five children, who had never served in the army, was served with a draft notice.

Word of these events spurred many young men to pack their bags and head for the closest borders to Buryatia Mongolia and Kazakhstan.

Part of FBF's work was helping with the evacuation efforts, by co-ordinating transportation and bringingBuryat mento the borders. Once they have crossed over, representatives from the foundation have been helping the young men find room and board, food and work.

"It was very sad looking at themYou understand these are very young boys who didn't have plans to leave," said Garmazhapova, recounting how she has helpedmen get settled in Astana, Kazakhstan. She said their average age was between 20 and 22.

"It's almost as if you can visualize their parents just throwing their kids on the last train leaving, just to save them."

Many of the soldiers sent to the front lines of the 2014 war in Ukraine were also from Buryatia, notably a lot of tank operators.

As a result, Garmazhapovasaid many had gained notoriety as "Putin's Buryat warriors." A 2015 pro-Kremlin video featured a few Buryat speaking about their support for Putin and willingness to fight for him.

"Before, when people would ask what is Buryatia, or who are the Buryat, it would take a very long time to explain the place. We would have to explain that Buryatia is near Lake Baikal, close to Mongolia," said Garmazhapova.

"But now if you say you're Buryat, people immediately say, 'Those are the people that fight for Putin in Ukraine.' It's very negative and is an awful reputation."

She said the latest war has thrown Buryat soldiers "into the meatgrinder" once again.

FBF was established in March 2022 with the release of an antiwar video featuring Buryat from around the world that countered the idea that Buryat soldiers fought willingly for Putin.

"Unexpectedly, this video garnered a million views and Buryat [people] started to write to us: 'Oh god, finally somebody [else] said that I'm against the war. I thought I was the only one,'" said Garmazhapova.

FBFwas inundated with messages, first with support and then with pleas for help in getting soldiers out of the war. Mothers began writing to the organization asking how to cancel the military contracts of sons who were either on the front lines or getting ready to go there.

Garmazhapova said they were able to successfully help some soldiers cancel their contracts and return home. However, with mobilization, their most effective way to support the men was to help them settle into new homes outside Russia.

She hopes these men will one day be able to repay countries like Kazakhstan and Mongolia, which have given them a new home.

In the meantime, she is encouraging Buryat men to start learning Kazakh.

"Even the most basic phrases," Garmazhapova said, "is a sign of respect to their language."

View original post here:
Russian ethnic minorities bearing brunt of Russia's war mobilization in Ukraine - CBC News

From an elegant mansion in Kyivs government quarter, Tamila Tasheva is planning what the Ukrainian takeover of Crimea might look like.

Tasheva, president Volodymyr Zelenskiys top representative for Crimea, and her team spend their days discussing issues such as how many Ukrainian teachers or police should be sent to the peninsula if Kyiv regains control, and what else would be required to help reverse eight years of Russian rule.

No serious military analyst is suggesting that Ukraine is close to being in a position to regain Crimea, but the idea feels much less fanciful than it did a year ago.

This is moment X. Right now everything is happening in a way that it feels inevitable, said Tasheva. It may not happen tomorrow, but I think it will be much quicker than I thought a year ago.

Even as Russian President Vladimir Putin lays claim to more territory, with his attempted annexation of four Ukrainian regions on Friday, the mood in Kyiv is that a full victory ought to involve not just taking things back to how they were before the February invasion, but regaining all of Ukraines territory.

Before, Ukrainian officials said Crimea would be theirs again more out of hope than a firm belief it would actually happen. The same went for most western officials and diplomats, who privately suggested there was little chance of Kyiv ever restoring control.

Now, as Russia struggles on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, and cracks of dissent appear over president Putins unpopular mobilisation drive, some in Kyiv hope the writing is on the wall. Everything began with Crimea and everything will end with Crimea, said Zelenskiy, in an August speech.

The Crimea office was opened by Zelenskiy last year as part of a strategy known as the Crimea Platform, which is aimed at envisioning eventual Ukrainian control over the territory. Sculptures by Crimean artists dot the gardens: one emits the sounds of waves and dolphins to evoke the seaside resorts of the peninsula. Inside, large photographs of spectacular Crimean landscapes and activists jailed by Russian authorities hang from the walls. Tasheva, a former rights activist who is Crimean Tatar, has been in the role since April this year.

Ukrainian officials say targeting Crimea is key to stopping the Russian war machine in other parts of occupied Ukraine, and Kyiv appears to have done so several times in recent months, most notably in early August, when several explosions rocked the Saky airbase.

Crimea is the key base for their army reserves. Its where they have their bases for ammunition, hardware and soldiers, so of course destroying these bases is a major part of de-blockading our territory, said Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to Zelenskiy.

He said the attitude of Kyivs western partners, particularly the US, had changed over the summer. Until the middle of the summer our partners really had doubts that Crimea could be a legitimate target. Now they accept that given the intensity of this war its absolutely a legitimate target, said Podolyak.

Currently Kyiv did not have enough Himars missiles to use on Crimea, said Podolyak, and the systems could not reach much of the peninsula from Ukrainian positions with their range in any case. So for now we are working mainly through diversionary groups, and using the local partisans, the local partisan mood has grown significantly in the past few months, he said.

The US has so far declined to deliver ATACMS systems that have an even longer range than Himars, but if it does, Crimea is likely to be one of the first targets. I think soon were going to see the Ukrainians pushing long-range rocket launchers into position to start hitting targets in Crimea, and this will really cause a problem for the Russians, it could make Crimea untenable for them, said Ben Hodges, formerly the commander of the US Army in Europe.

Inside the peninsula, Russian authorities have stepped up a crackdown on dissent, and Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-installed leader of Crimea, went as far as to threaten that anyone who sang pro-Ukrainian songs would be prosecuted.

People who chant slogans, sing songs or nationalist hymns will be punished according to the criminal code, he said earlier this month, after six guests at a Crimean Tatar wedding were arrested when footage was shared of guests dancing to a song that calls for Ukraine to be freed from Muscovite shackles.

People who behave like this are traitors if you dont love our country then leave and go to the place you do love, said Aksyonov, who was a marginal local politician before Moscow installed him as leader in 2014.

Gauging the public mood in Crimea is difficult. Ukrainians say a number of surveys in recent years purporting to show that a majority of Crimeans are happy under Russian rule should be taken in the context of the Kremlins lack of tolerance of dissent and the exodus of large numbers of pro-Ukraine Crimeans after annexation. There is some anecdotal evidence that support for Russia could be waning.

Of course there are loads of people who are staunchly pro-Russian, but there are also many people who feel theyve been cheated over the past eight years, and feel increasingly uncomfortable with life under Moscow, said one Crimea resident who has fled the peninsula to escape Putins mobilisation decree.

In 2014 the Kremlin launched a lightning invasion of little green men, who wore no insignia and who Moscow initially denied were Russian special forces. Later, they disabled the TV stations, threatened Ukrainian military installations on the peninsula and co-opted much of the Ukrainian law enforcement, judicial and other infrastructure.

This will be one of many thorny issues for Ukraine should it ever win back control of Crimea. Who should face punishment for working with Russian authorities, and who should receive an amnesty?

Officials say that after so many years of occupation, that decision will be different from those that will have to be made in the territories occupied by Russia since the February invasion.

Crimea is a different case. Our laws will not have a retrospective aspect, said Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraines deputy prime minister. People believed Russia was there for ever, and you could not function there without interacting with Russian authorities.

There are other tricky questions. Between 500,000 and 800,000 Russians have moved to the peninsula since 2014, according to Ukrainian estimates. Technically, they have all entered the territory of Ukraine illegally. Then there is the question of property transactions since 2014. Should Ukrainian law recognise any of them?

Tasheva said the important thing was to ensure that these issues were dealt with ahead of time, not on the hop. Back in 2014, Russia was ready to implement its rule in Crimea. We need to be ready too, she said.

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It feels inevitable: Ukraine starts to believe it can win back Crimea - The Guardian