Forbes | What The Russia Sanctions Upgrade Means For Trump And Ukraine Forbes President Donald Trump has lost his argument for a Russia reset. With Ukraine and U.S. oil companies at least partially in mind, a new bill passed by an overwhelming 97 to 2 majority in the Senate on Wednesday punishes Russian oil and gas firms even ... |
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What The Russia Sanctions Upgrade Means For Trump And Ukraine - Forbes
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US secretary of state Rex Tillerson told members of Congress the Minsk deal was not the only route out of the conflict Ukraine-Russia conflict. Photograph: Zach Gibson/Getty Images
US secretary of state Rex Tillerson has said Russia and Ukraine could solve their conflict without the beleaguered Minsk peace plan, in comments that suggest Washington may be preparing to intensify its own efforts to end more than three years of fighting.
The Minsk deal of February 2015 was brokered by Germany and France and signed by representatives of Kiev, Moscow and Russian-backed separatists from eastern Ukraine, but it has failed to halt a conflict that has killed 10,000 people and displaced 1.5 million.
Officials from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France meet frequently to discuss implementation of the largely ineffective agreement, but the US administration of Donald Trump now appears to be seeking a bigger say in the issue.
Amid reports that Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko would meet Mr Trump in Washington as early as next week, Mr Tillerson told members of the US Congress that the Minsk deal was not the only route out of the conflict.
It is very possible that the government of Ukraine and the government of Russia could come to a satisfactory resolution through some structure other than Minsk but would achieve the objectives of Minsk, which were committed to, Mr Tillerson told a hearing of the House of Representatives foreign affairs committee.
When asked whether the US should ease sanctions on Russia before it complied with the Minsk deal, Mr Tillerson requested more flexibility - a term that will alarm those who suspect Mr Trump is intent on forging closer ties with Moscow despite its continued aggression in Ukraine and alleged interference in last years US elections.
I think it is important that we be given sufficient flexibility to achieve the Minsk objectives... I wouldnt want to have ourselves handcuffed to Minsk if it turns out the parties decide to settle this through a different agreement, Mr Tillerson said on Wednesday.
While insisting that Russia must be held accountable for its meddling in US elections, Mr Tillerson said Mr Trump must have the flexibility to adjust sanctions to meet the needs of what is always an evolving diplomatic situation...to turn up the heat when we need to, but also to ensure that we have the ability to maintain a constructive dialogue with Moscow.
Germany and France remain committed to the Minsk process, but Ukrainian and Russian officials have expressed willingness to see the US play a stronger role on the issue.
Under former US president Barack Obama, then assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland held talks on Ukraine with senior Kremlin aide Vladislav Surkov. No successor to Ms Nuland appears to have been appointed, however.
The US Senate voted on Wednesday for new sanctions to punish Russia for interfering in the US election, and to oblige Mr Trump to secure Congresss backing before easing existing measures.
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Ukraine and Russia could forge peace without Minsk deal - US - Irish Times
Vladimir Putin has referred to "the territories which now belong to Ukraine" in ominous comments during his annual phone-in.
The Russian President made several remarks about Ukraine, recent anti-government protests and his country's relations with the United States, duringA Direct Line With Putin.
"I hope at some time this period in the life and history of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people will come to an end," Mr Putin said.
Mr Putin used the question and answer session to talk to voters aboutkey issues ahead of next year's presidential election, which he is expected to contest.
Anti-Putin protests: Russian police arrest hundreds as thousands rally against Kremlin corruption
He went on to say how much he values the views of Ukranians who remember the "common history" uniting Russia and Ukraine. "We grasp it and we value it highly, believe me."
Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and is supporting pro-Russia insurgents in eastern Ukraine, leading Western nations to place sanctions on Moscow.
"If it wasn't for Crimea, other problems, they would have invented something else to deter Russia," he said.
During the tightly choreographed marathon TV appearance, Mr Putin gave a rare glimpse into his private life, saying he has two grandchildren whose privacy he wants to respect, and even spoke to a man whose wife had given birth moments ago.
He described Ukranian nationalists as "swastika-brandishing loonies" and added the fathers of Ukranian nationalism believed the country should be a federal state.
"We have many friends in Ukraine," he said, before going on to say the Ukranian nationalists "all believed Ukraine should be independent but it should also be a federal state."
He added that "over-centralisation... would lead to domestic conflicts in Ukraine. This is what we have been witnessing.
"By the way, some of the defenders of the Ukrainian independence and the Ukrainian nationalism did not see Crimea as part of Ukraine."
He said construction of a bridge to connect mainland Russia with Crimea is on schedule "and even slightly ahead of it". It is meant to be operational by the end of next year.
Mr Putin also joked that Russia would offer asylum to former FBI director James Comey (Getty Images)
During the four-hour show, Mr Putin accused his opponents of "abusing" and exploiting problems in Russia rather than offering a solution.
He said that while "street protests always emerge as part of democratic procedures," they were "not being done to improve the situation in the country."
He also said Russia's campaign in Syria had allowed the military to test its state-of-the art weapons in real combat.
The experience allowed engineers to polish weapons designs and has given a "new quality" to the Russian military, he said.
Vladimir Putin offers political asylum to JamesComey
Mr Putin also joked that Russia would offer asylum to former FBI director James Comey, who was fired by Donald Trump.
He said it was "very strange" the FBI official had leaked details of conversations with the US President and compared his actions to those of Edward Snowden.
The Russian President said his country was "ready for a constructive dialogue" with the US.
Mr Putin said Moscow and Washington could cooperate in efforts to prevent the proliferation of mass destruction weapons, including the North Korean nuclear and missile problem.
He said the two countries could also cooperate in dealing with global poverty and efforts to prevent climate change.
"As far as the flashpoints are concerned... there are positive examples of our cooperation. Syrian problem, Mid-Eastern problem on the whole... There are other flashpoints and we are very hopeful for the United States' constructive role in the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis... We are ready for a constructive dialogue."
Additional reporting by agencies
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Vladimir Putin refers to 'territories now called Ukraine' in ominous comments during annual phone-in - The Independent
By Joshua Cohen By Joshua Cohen June 15 at 6:00 AM
Josh Cohen is a former U.S. Agency for International Development project officer involved in managing economic reform projects in the former Soviet Union.
As Ukraines fight against Russian-supported separatists continues, Kiev faces another threat to its long-term sovereignty: powerful right-wing ultranationalist groups. These groups are not shy about using violence to achieve their goals, which are certainly at odds with the tolerant Western-oriented democracy Kiev ostensibly seeks to become.
The recent brutal stabbing of a left-wing anti-war activist named Stas Serhiyenko illustrates the threat posed by these extremists. Serhiyenko and his fellow activists believe the perpetrators belonged to the neo-Nazi group C14 (whose name comes from a 14-word phrase used by white supremacists). The attack took place on the anniversary of Hitlers birthday, and C14s leader published a statement that celebrated Serhiyenkos stabbing immediately afterward.
The attack on Serhiyenko is just the tip of the iceberg. More recently C14 beat up a socialist politician while other ultranationalist thugs stormed the Lviv and Kiev City Councils. Far-right and neo-Nazi groups have also assaulted or disrupted art exhibitions, anti-fascist demonstrations, a Ukrainians Choose Peace event, LGBT events, a social center, media organizations, court proceedings and a Victory Day march celebrating the anniversary of the end of World War II.
According to a study from activist organization Institute Respublica, the problem is not only the frequency of far-right violence, but the fact that perpetrators enjoy widespread impunity. Its not hard to understand why Kiev seems reluctant to confront these violent groups. For one thing, far-right paramilitary groups played an important role early in the war against Russian-supported separatists. Kiev also fears these violent groups could turn on the government itself something theyve donebefore and continue to threatento do.
To be clear, Russian propaganda about Ukraine being overrun by Nazis or fascists is false. Far-right parties such as Svoboda or Right Sector draw little support from Ukrainians.
Even so, the threat cannot be dismissed out of hand. If authorities dont end the far rights impunity, it risks further emboldening them, argues Krasimir Yankov, a researcher with Amnesty International in Kiev. Indeed, the brazen willingness of Vita Zaverukha a renowned neo-Nazi out on bail andunder house arrest after killing two police officers to post pictures of herself after storming a popular Kiev restaurant with 50 other nationalists demonstrates the far rights confidence in their immunity from government prosecution.
Its not too late for the government to take steps to reassert control over the rule of law. First, authorities should enact a zero-tolerance policy on far-right violence. President Petro Poroshenko should order key law enforcement agencies the Interior Ministry, the National Police of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Prosecutor Generals Office (PGO) to make stopping far-right activity a top priority.
The legal basis for prosecuting extremist vigilantism certainly exists. The Criminal Code of Ukraine specifically outlaws violence against peaceful assemblies. The police need to start enforcing this law.
Most importantly, the government must also break any connections between law enforcement agencies and far-right organizations. The clearest example of this problem lies in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which is headed by Arsen Avakov. Avakov has a long-standing relationship with the Azov Battalion, a paramilitary group that uses the SS symbol as its insignia and which, with several others, was integrated into the army or National Guard at the beginning of the war in the East. Critics have accused Avakov of using members of the group to threaten an opposition media outlet. As at least one commentator has pointed out, using the National Guard to combat ultranationalist violence is likely to prove difficult if far-right groups have become part of the Guard itself.
Avakovs Deputy Minister Vadym Troyan was a member of the neo-Nazi Patriot of Ukraine (PU) paramilitary organization, while current Ministry of Interior official Ilya Kiva a former member of the far-right Right Sector party whose Instagram feed is populated with images of former Italian fascist leader Benito Mussolini has called for gays to be put to death. And Avakov himself used the PU to promote his business and political interests while serving as a governor in eastern Ukraine, and as interior minister formed and armed the extremist Azov battalion led by Andriy Biletsky, a man nicknamed the White Chief who called for a crusade against Semite-led sub-humanity.
Such officials have no place in a government based on the rule of law; they should go. More broadly, the government should also make sure that every police officer receives human rights training focused on improving the policing and prosecution of hate crimes. Those demonstrating signs of extremist ties or sympathies should be excluded.
In one notorious incident, media captured images of swastika-tattooed thugs who police claimed were only job applicants wanting to have fun giving the Nazi salute in a police building in Kiev. This cannot be allowed to go on, and its just as important for Ukrainian democracy to cleanse extremists from law enforcement as it is to remove corrupt officials from former president Viktor Yanukovychs regime under Ukraines lustration policy.
Its still not too late for Poroshenko to end the far rights growing sense of impunity. But he must act now.
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Ukraine's ultra-right militias are challenging the government to a showdown - Washington Post
Exclusive: The U.S. mainstream medias narrative of the Ukraine crisis hailing the 2014 Maidan uprising and blaming the ensuing conflict on Russia is facing challenge in some early historical accounts, writes James W. Carden.
By James W. Carden
While the good folks of the Washington establishment have been keeping themselves busy trying to invent new ways to cripple and delegitimize the presidency of Donald J. Trump, the war in Ukraine, now entering its fourth year, has, of late, gone largely unremarked upon.
Yet it continues. A report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights published on June 13 finds that over the past three months there have been ceasefire violations committed by both parties to the conflict. According to the report, the routine use of small arms and light and heavy weapons in the conflict zone has resulted in damage to critical infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and water facilities. To date, over 10,000 people, including roughly 3,000 civilians, have been killed since the conflict began in 2014.
This past February marked the three-year anniversary of Euro-Maidan uprising, which saw Ukraines democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovych overthrown and replaced by a pro-Western coalition government made up of his political opponents.
As the drama played out, a small but influential coterie of Western journalists, who had previously shown themselves susceptible to the charms of regime-change wars, by and large shaped what became the mainstream narrative of the Ukraine crisis.
The narrative boils down to this: had it not been for the actions of Vladimir Putin following the glories of the Euro-Maidan protests, Ukraine would have, peacefully and in due course, joined the European family of nations. But Putin, so the story goes, was infuriated that Ukraine rejected his vision of a neo-Soviet Eurasian Economic Union, and took revenge by annexing Crimea. Having stolen Crimea, Putin then turned his sights on the Russophone eastern part of Ukraine where forces under his control have been waging hybrid war ever since.
It is often said, that journalism especially the version coming from The New York Times, The Washington Post and other mainstream newspapers serves as the first draft of history. And, if that is true, the mainstream narrative of Ukraines post-Maidan innocence and Russian perfidy sums up the first draft in a nutshell. Since then, that first draft has evolved into a second draft published by big-name authors, such as Imperial Gamble by Marvin Kalb, a former Moscow bureau chief for NBC News. Ambitious in scope, Kalbs book reflects the widely held, but erroneous, view that Putins Russia was the principal driver of the crisis and subsequent war.
A Mixed Bag
To his credit, every now and then Kalb breaks free from the Official Washington narrative. Describing the neo-fascist flavor of the Maidan protests, Kalb writes that a number of far-right groups who were increasingly at the center of the action would have made the Nazi-era Gestapo look like a happy band of bigots and bandits.
Kalb, unlike many of his peers in the think tank community (Kalb is a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution) also notes with distaste that a leader of the neo-Nazi Azov battalion was named chief of police in post-Maidan Kiev. Instead of reining in far-right militias, writes Kalb, Kiev has actually been providing them with tanks and armored personnel carriers.
Kalb is equally clear-eyed about the tactics that Ukraines new leaders employed to garner Western aid. A number of unethical Ukrainian politicians seem to have found the magic formula, which, according to Kalb, is this: bedazzle the West into believing that Ukraine is a vital strategic asset in a continuing East-West struggle between democracy and autocracy, between freedom and oppression
Toward the end of Imperial Gamble, Kalb begins to sounds a lot like a foreign policy realist, writing that because Putin holds all the cards in the Ukraine crisis, the current president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, will have to accept the best deal he can get. Indeed, Kalb flirts with outright apostasy when he concludes that any real solution to the current crisis must first satisfy the interests of Russia and then those of Ukraine.
Yet for all of its strengths, Kalbs account is marred by problems both large and small.First, there are the factual errors. Describing the aftermath of Yanukovychs decision not to sign the European Union Association Agreement (AA) in November 2013, Kalb writes that hundreds of thousands of disenchanted Ukrainians rushed to the streets and days later Yanukovych fled.
In fact, most accounts put the initial number of Maidan protesters at around a 2,000 or so, while Yanukovych did not flee days later he fled three months later on Feb. 22, 2014, after weeks of increasingly violent riots, which led to the deaths of more than a dozen police and scores of protesters.
Exaggerated Claims
Kalb writes that on Feb. 23, Crimea was about to change ownership. Eastern Ukraine was about to descend into civil war. Yet the civil war did not begin until April 6. After Crimea held a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia in March 2014, Kalb writes that the anti-Maidan rallies that took place in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Maiupol and Odessa were instigated by Moscow and organized by Russian special forces in the region a claim he makes repeatedly throughout the book.
Yet as the University of Ottawas Paul Robinson points out, the idea that Russian special forces were active as far as Kharkiv and Odessa is quite unsubstantiated.
Kalb often asserts things for which there is precious little evidence. Readers are informed that historians in Putins Russia no longer adhered to the standards of objective scholarship. Of Putins allegedly longstanding plan to retake Crimea, Kalb writes, Putin circled Crimea on an imaginary map. Here Russia would act.
Kalb writes that Putin lives in a strange corner of the Kremlin where fear and hubris coexist in an awkward embrace and where, presumably, he hatches his plans for world domination. And he is a crusher of dissent. Kalb repeats the usual litany of abuses attributed to Putin: He has tried to freeze political debate, he approves the assassination of political critics, he has been, without a doubt, the strongest Russian autocrat since Stalin, yet oddly, the most vulnerable.
Nor is that all. Putin, strong and vulnerable, is also like a spoiled child who does not like being ignored or scolded. Yet delivering speeches in the Kremlin does wonders for his ego. Indeed, Putin cannot imagine life without an autocratic grip on political power.
Yet by the end of Imperial Gamble, Kalb suddenly strikes a note of caution, telling readers that we should stop personalizing East-West differences, laying all our problems on Putins shoulders. While true, this wouldve been a bit more convincing if the author hadnt spent the previous 100 pages doing just that.
A Glaring Flaw
Yet the books most glaring flaw is its premise: that Russia is solely to blame for the crisis. As Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer point out in Conflict in Ukraine, the idea that Russia caused the crisis exemplifies the single factor fallacy. Scrupulously even-handed, Menon and Rumer depart from Kalbs analysis by identifying causes of the crisis other than those originating out of Moscow.
Moreover, whereas Kalbs narrative is marred by errors and an over-reliance on hyperbole (calling post-coup Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk an international superstar) and clich (on Feb. 22 the earth shook), Conflict in Ukraine is a crisply written overview of the crisis which serves as a successful rebuttal to the entrenched idea that the crisis was all Putins doing.
Another strength of Menon and Rumers offering is that it puts the crisis into the larger context of East-West relations. In addition to being a manifestation of the centuries-long divide within Ukraine, the crisis is also a symptom of an even larger problem for Europe. The inability of Western leaders to find a satisfactory answer to the problem of Russias place in Europe has been exacerbated by two separate, but related, issues.
The first has to do with NATO expansion. The original iteration of NATO was driven by a desire, in the words of NATOs first Secretary-General, Lord Ismay, to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. Menon and Rumer note that once the Cold War ended, NATO was robbed of its raison dtre and, in search of one, decided to expand both its membership and its writ. And so, between 1999 and 2009, NATO added 12 new members, expanding the alliance to Russias western border.
According to Menon and Rumer, the Wests decision to expand was met with perplexity and resentment in Russia. NATOs expansion to Russias doorstep is, according to the University of Chicagos John J. Mearsheimer, the taproot of the current crisis.
And indeed, the failure to build a sustainable post-Cold War security architecture lies at the heart of the crisis. Menon and Rumer note, what was done for Germany in the 1950s was not done for Russia in the 1990s. Still worse, to do so never even seemed to cross the minds of Western policymakers: NATO membership for Russia was never seriously considered, and if it came up, it was only as a far-fetched, theoretical possibility.
Downturn in Relations
If NATO expansion played a central role in the downturn in relations between Russia and the West, the role played by the European Unions expansionist agenda has been no less significant. Menon and Rumer are particularly critical of the E.U.s Eastern Partnership initiative (EaP), which, staring in 2009, sought to bring six former Soviet republics into the E.U.s orbit. And it was Ukraine, which was, as the neocon functionary Carl Gershman once put it the biggest prize.
Menon and Rumer demonstrate that the EaP was deeply flawed from the start. Given Ukraines importance to Russia, the idea that any Russian leader, no less Vladimir Putin, would countenance Ukraines absorption into the E.U. strikes the authors as fanciful.
The E.U.s myopic focus on expansion caused its leadership to fail to see what should have been perfectly clear all along: that Moscow did not view E.U. membership for Ukraine as benign. It saw a link between E.U. membership and NATO membership. And in fact, there is a link: the Association Agreements acquis communautaire has specific foreign policy and security protocols embedded within it. Simply put: E.U. membership sets the stage for NATO membership.
Nevertheless, the E.U. continued down its perilous course, giving, according to Menon and Rumer, little thought, if any at all, to how it would deal with the eventuality of Russian resistance. Indeed, this apparent failure is nothing less than a manifestation of what the historian Richard Sakwa has described as the E.U.s tendency toward geopolitical nihilism.
In Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, a uniformly excellent treatment of the crisis and its attendant causes, Sakwa decries what he views as a reckless rush to isolate Russia from the rest of Europe. Sakwas bitingly describes the crisis as a festival of irresponsibility.
Two Views of Ukraine
Sakwas account is straightforward. According to Sakwa there are two aspects of the Ukraine crisis: internal and international. The internal crisis is marked by a division between those who see Ukraine as a monolingual, culturally autonomous state that should align itself with Europe and NATO, and those, primarily in the east, who believe the state should embrace ethnic and linguistic pluralism. For them, Ukraine is an assemblage of different traditions where Russian is recognized as an official language and economic and security ties with Russia are maintained.
According to Sakwa, the international aspect of the crisis stems from the unwelcome transformation of the E.U. from an institution which, in its early years sought to transcend the logic of conflict to one which is now functions as the civilian wing of NATO. Like Rumer and Menon, Sakwa decries the failure of Western policymakers to establish a genuinely inclusive and equal security system in the post-Cold War era.
While Sakwa places the bulk of the blame for the crisis on the hubris of the E.U., in Ukraine: Zbigs Grand Chessboard and How the West Was Checkmated, Natylie Baldwin and Kermit Heartsong cast a gimlet eye on the role the U.S. has played in the crisis. Heartsong and Baldwin demonstrate that the project to wrest Ukraine out of Russias orbit owes a great deal to the ideas of the late Zbigniew Brzezinski the neoconservative wing of the U.S. foreign policy establishment.
Baldwin and Heartsongs denunciation of U.S. foreign policy also serves as a primer on the roots of the conflict, which includes a detailed account of how the color revolutions of 2002-2009 served as a trial run for the events that later swept the Maidan. As the authors note, what was true for the first color revolutions, holds for the Maidan today: despite lofty expectations, the revolutions brought social, political, and economic suffering in their wake.
The newest addition to the literature comes courtesy of the Dutch journalist Chris Kaspar de Ploeg, who refuses to go along with the mainstream Western narrative that has studiously ignored the ultra-nationalist, neo-fascist aspects of post-Maidan Ukraine. De Ploegs Ukraine in the Crossfire is a deeply researched account that lets no one in this sordid drama off the hook. Hunter Bidens shady business dealings, Valerie Jareskos greed, Victoria Nulands imperial pretensions, and Petro Poroshenkos gross criminality are each given their due.
What makes De Ploegs account particularly valuable is his detailed examination of the role of the far right in perpetuating not only the violence which racked the Maidan but in then launching a brutal war (the so-called anti-terrorist operation) against the Russian-backed rebels and the civilian Russophone population of eastern and southern Ukraine. The atrocities carried out by neo-Nazi militias like Right Sector and the Azov battalion are glossed over in the Western press almost as a matter of course, but, as De Ploeg shows, ignoring their influence and reach makes a rational understanding of the conflict impossible.
Edmund Wilson once wrote that it is all too easy to idealize a social upheaval which takes place in some other country than ones own. And this is an illusion that has plagued the mainstream narrative regarding the Ukrainian revolution from the start. Yet with the appearance of several of these titles, we can begin to discern a shift away from the triumphalist one-note narrative of the Ukraine crisis toward one which recognizes the complex reality of a crisis that is now in its fourth year.
James W. Carden served as an adviser on Russia policy at the US State Department. Currently a contributing writer at The Nation magazine, his work has appeared in the Los Angeles Times, Quartz, The American Conservative and The National Interest. He has reported from both rebel- and government-held eastern Ukraine.
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Sorting Out Ukraine Conflict's History - Consortium News