Mediaboss Marketing

This article was originally published inFrench

Paris and Berlin are at loggerheads over military aid to Ukraine. But can the two European powerhouses unify behind Kyiv?

At a conference on Ukraine in Paris at the end of February 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine.

The announcement didn't go down well across the Rhine.

A few hours later, Germany's Olaf Scholz answered Europe and NATO will not send any soldiers to Ukraine.

Macron's statement was "ared line for Germany, which fears being passed off as warmonger in the eyes of Vladimir Putin, according to Dr Carolyn Moser, director of a research group atHeidelberg'sMax Planck Institute of International Law and holder of the Alfred Grosser Chair at Sciences Po.

During the same conference, the French leader did not miss the opportunity to recall that many, around this table, were only considering sending sleeping bags and helmets to Ukraine.

It was a jibe at Berlin, which announced at the end of January 2022 it would send 5,000 helmets to Kyiv - but not arms. One month later Russian tanks rolled across the border.

The situation has changed a lot since then.

After the United States, Germany is now the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine.

According to the Kiel Institute, Germany has committed to providing 17 billion in aid for Kyiv when France has only promised 1.8bn.

"France was less hesitant to deliver heavy weapons, but it made it much less public. And until now, it hesitates to say exactly what it delivered and to what extent. It justifies it by the fact that it could then reveal defence secrets," said expert Moser.

Lack of communication is also a source of tension between Berlin and Paris.

Faced with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Scholz announced at the end of February 2022 an envelope of 100bnto modernise the German army.

France regrets not having been informed beforehand.

Another thorn in the side of the Franco-German relationship is the European Sky Shield Initiative.

Initiated by Germany, the project, which includes 21 NATO countries but does not include France, consists of German (IRIS-T), American (PATRIOT) and Israeli (Arrow-3) systems.

These dissonances already existed before Moscow's assault on Ukraine. In 2017, Macron made a speech at the Sorbonne, calling for an overhaul of European defence - it fell on deaf ears across the Rhine.

The French and German visions of European defence differ fundamentally on one point: the role of NATO. "While France aspires to a certain autonomy, Germany prefers a transatlantic approach," explains Moser.

Defence is just part of a series of long-standing disagreements between Paris and Berlin.

Energy has historically been a major divide between the two. While France depends on nuclear power - providing around 70% of its electricity - Germany shut down its last nuclear power plant in 2023.

The war in Ukraine is now bringing the energy issue back on the table because Germany, a major consumer of Russian gas, must seek supplies elsewhere.

Another thorn in the Franco-German relations is the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the south American trade bloc.

"For Germany, free trade is essential because its economy is very dependent on exports... The opening rate of the German economy is 87%. It is considerable. France is only 60%," says Jacques-Pierre Gougeon,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

While Berlin is pushing for this free trade agreement, Paris believes its environmental standards are insufficient", he explains.

The war in Ukraine has upset the distribution of roles and power relationships between the couple.

"There was a sort of tacit division of roles between a more leading France on defence issues, strategic issues, and then Germany on economic issues. And it is clear that this balance is now weakened with German ambitions on defence issues," says Gaspard Schnitzler,research director at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).

Franco-German relations have been relegated to the background for Berlin, which increasingly has its eyes on the East.

In his speech in Prague in August 2022, Scholz called for the enlargement of the European Union to include the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova.

Undeniably, Europe's centre of gravity will shift to the East," explains research director Schnitzler.

Experts say the balance of power is far from being redistributed, however.

"Germany and France alone account for 48% of euro area GDP, 32% of the EU population and 31% of the EU budget. So we cant do without," adds Jacques-Pierre Gougeon.

Several ways have been suggested by observers to get the Franco-German tandem back on track.

For expert Moser, the pair must communicate better.

Gougeon pleads for opening the Franco-German relationship to other partners, in particular Poland in the framework of the Weimar Triangle.

Schnitzler recommends carrying out existing projects such as the main ground combat system (MGCS), and thefuture combat air system(SCAF).

Macron will visit Germany for an official state visit later this month where the two leaders are expected to discuss, among other things, priorities for the next EU mandate ahead of the European elections scheduled for June 6-9.

Read the original:
Can Franco-German relations be rekindled over the Ukraine war? - Euronews

Remember, President Zelenskyy was at the Munich Security Conference just days before Russia invaded, Reznikov told POLITICO. I was a member of the delegation with him in Munich, and there was this atmosphere, this ambience [of] Guys, you have to give up. It wasnt said directly, but it was there, he said. Hardly inspiring confidence as the negotiations with Russia kicked off.

But above all, Reznikov and other Ukrainian officials involved in the talks Ukraines Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak and his adviser Mykhailo Podolyak among them also doubted the Kremlins sincerity and whether it was negotiating in good faith. This was a skepticism honed during the hundreds of hours theyd spent bargaining with Russian officials before the 2022 invasion. Were the concessions Russia offered even worth the paper they were written on?

They may sign documents, but whether they keep to agreements is another matter, Reznikov said. Remember the Budapest Memorandum, he added, referencing the 1994 agreement Russia had signed, fixing Ukraines borders and recognizing its sovereignty in return for giving up its nuclear arsenal. French President Mitterrand refused to add his signature to [this] document and warned our president [Leonid Kuchma], Young man, they will trick you.

Kuchma told me this story. After 30 years, the Russians did just that they tricked us, he said. The Kuchma anecdote was on Reznikovs mind during the 2022 negotiations. And, according to Ukrainian negotiators, it was in the spirit of Mitterrand that the U.K. and the U.S. cautioned Ukraine.

Negotiations? They dont want real negotiations, Yermak told POLITICO. The Russians want the capitulation of Ukraine.

We would be at the negotiating table again in [a] moment, if the aggressor was ready, really ready, to agree a just peace but not for their version of peace, he said. Like Reznikov, Yermaks worried that Ukraine would abide by the concessions it made, while Russia would squirm out of them and refuse to implement whats agreed.

Read more:
Ukraine is ready for a just peace not Russia's version of one - POLITICO Europe

Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.

Ukraine will look to launch a counteroffensive in 2025 with the support of the approved $61 billion aid package from the United States, as well as additional Western aid funding, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the Financial Times on May 4.

Sullivan echoed Ukraine's hopes that the country will "move forward to recapture the territory that the Russians have taken - the clearest such articulation as to how the Biden administration sees the war evolving in the coming months.

The Financial Times notes that any new Ukrainian offensive would require additional military aid from Western allies, including the United States. The most recent $61 billion aid package from the U.S. took months to pass through Congress amid political infighting.

The United States is currently leading talks among Group of Seven (G7) allies to develop a military aid package to Ukraine worth up to $50 billion, Bloomberg reported on May 3. The potential package would reportedly be funded by the profits generated by accrued interest on frozen Russian assets.

Despite mounting pressures of an anticipated Russian summer offensive, Sullivan noted that with incoming U.S. weapons supplies, Ukraine will have the capacity to "hold the line" as it faces a difficult period in the war over the next few months.

Last month, in an interview with Germany's Bild magazine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that while there is a plan for a eventual counteroffensive, any such developments would be contingent on receiving additional aid from Western allies.

Amid a looming presidential election in the United States, questions have risen over the U.S.'s ongoing support of Ukraine if former President and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is once again elected to office.

In early April, media reported, citing undisclosed sources, that Trump had privately said he could end Russia's war by pressuring Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas to Moscow, which was denied by his advisor.

According to a former advisor to Trump, the former president made it very clear that he believed Ukraine must be part of Russia.

Despite his comments, Trump reportedly voiced support for House Speaker Mike Johnson, following a vote on military aid for Ukraine after months of delays, and has previously suggested providing Ukraine aid as loans.

Bloomberg: US leading efforts within G7 to develop $50 billion aid package to Ukraine

The United States is leading talks among the Group of Seven (G7) nations to develop a military aid package to Ukraine worth up to $50 billion, Bloomberg reported on May 3. The package would reportedly be funded by the profits generated by accrued interest on frozen Russian assets.

Go here to read the rest:
FT: US aid to Ukraine will help Ukraine launch counteroffensive in 2025, Sullivan says - Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's armed forces released a video claiming to show 42 destroyed Russian military vehicles.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry described the scenes as a"line to hell."

Fighting has intensified in the Donetsk region in recent months as Russia pushes further past Avdiivka.

Ukraine's armed forces claim to have destroyed 42 Russian tanks and military vehicles in the eastern region of Donetsk.

A video shared by Ukraine's 58th Motorized Brigade appears to show the wrecks of the vehicles.

A caption accompanying the video reads: "It seems that in recent weeks, Putin's generals have been making a large-scale sacrifice to their hellish gods, throwing new forces and equipment to their death."

"The result is dozens of burned-out Russian tanks and armored vehicles," it continues.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reshared the video on X, formerly Twitter, writing: "A line to hell. Dozens of Russian tanks and combat vehicles were destroyed on a small section of the front in the Donetsk region."

Business Insider was unable to independently verify when or where the footage was taken.

Fighting has intensified in the Donetsk region in recent months as Russia pushes to take more ground around the already-captured city of Avdiivka.

Russian forces are currently targeting the strategically important city of Chasiv Yar, just to the north.

Ukrainian officials believe that Russia is now intent on seizing the regions of both Donetsk and Luhansk in 2024.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported in February that Russia's campaign around Avdiivka had resulted in significant losses to both equipment and personnel.

The report said that at that time, Russia had lost 8,800 armored fighting vehicles since it launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The director-general of the IISS also said in February that Russia had likely lost more than 3,000 tanks since the invasion began.

"To put that into perspective, Russia's battlefield tank losses are greater than the number it had when it launched its offensive in 2022," he wrote.

Dutch open-source intelligence website Oryx puts visually confirmed Russian tank losses since the start of the conflict at just under 3,000.

Read the original article on Business Insider

See more here:
Ukraine highlights Russia's 'line of hell.' Claim of dozens of tanks and military vehicles destroyed on one sector of the ... - Yahoo! Voices

Moscow has reacted to comments about sending troops and arms to Ukraine as dangerous, while Kyiv urges Western allies to speed up aid deliveries.

Recent statements by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron about the war in Ukraine are dangerous and will deepen international tension around the conflict, the Kremlins spokesman said on Friday.

In an interview published on Thursday, Macron repeated an earlier comment that he doesnt rule out sending troops to Ukraine.

Cameron, meanwhile, said during a visit to Kyiv the same day that Ukraine will be able to use British long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia - a possibility that some other NATO countries providing weapons have balked at.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov branded Macrons comment a very important and very dangerous statement. Remarks by Macron about possible direct French engagement in the conflict represent a very dangerous trend, he said.

Camerons statement about Ukraines right to use British weapons provided to strike facilities inside Russia is another very dangerous statement, Peskov told reporters.

This is a direct escalation of tensions around the Ukrainian conflict, which potentially may threaten European security, the entire European security architecture, Peskov added.

Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 significantly heightened tension between the Kremlin and NATO countries. The alliance countries have provided much of the military hardware that Kyiv is using to fight Russia, ensuring that the tension has continued to simmer. Russia, in turn, has sought help from China, Iran and North Korea, according to the US.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia will face consequences after accusing its military intelligence service of masterminding an absolutely intolerable cyberattack, as NATO and European Union member countries said they will not let Russias malicious" behavior in cyberspace go unanswered.

Relations between Russia and Germany were already tense over German military support to Ukraine.

Baerbock said Russian state hackers were behind a cyberattack last year that targeted the Social Democrats, the leading party in the governing coalition. The German Interior Ministry added that German companies, including in the defense and aerospace sectors, as well as targets related to Russias war in Ukraine were a focus of the attacks.

The Council of the EU and the Czech Foreign Ministry said that Czechia's institutions have also been a target of a cyber campaign by the same group.

The ministry said APT28, which is associated with the Russian military intelligence service GRU, exploited a previously unknown vulnerability in Microsoft Outlook from 2023.

In a statement by Josep Borrell, the EUs top diplomat said they strongly condemn the malicious cyber campaign conducted by the Russia-controlled APT28 against Germany and Czechia.

The EU noted that it had previously imposed sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for APT28 attacks targeting the German parliament in 2015. It said it will not tolerate the continuation of such attacks, particularly with EU elections upcoming in June.

NATO said that APT28 targeted other national governmental entities, critical infrastructure operators and other entities across the Alliance," including in Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Sweden.

Ukraines president and foreign minister on Friday pressed British Foreign Secretary David Cameron to accelerate the delivery of promised military aid to Kyiv, as Russia heaps battlefield pressure on depleted Ukrainian forces in the third year of the war.

It is important that the weapons included in the UK support package announced last week arrive as soon as possible, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on the social platform X, as Cameron visited Kyiv on Thursday.

He said armored vehicles, ammunition and missiles of various types were top of the list.

Vital support pledged by Western allies to help Ukraine fend off the Kremlins forces has been delayed by political disagreements in the US and a lack of manufacturing capacity in Europe. That has opened a door to advances for the bigger and better-equipped Russian army, especially along the front line in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine and its Western partners are in a race against the clock to deploy the new military aid, especially a fresh batch of US support, in the coming weeks and prevent Russia from taking more ground.

The pressing concern at the moment is keeping the strategic eastern hilltop city of Chasiv Yar out of Russian hands. Capturing the city would offer Russia the opportunity of attacking other key cities deeper inside the Donetsk region and hitting important Ukrainian supply lines.

Read this article:
Kremlin brands France and UK's Ukraine comments as 'dangerous' - Euronews