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In my last two columns this week, I've detailed some of the specifics behind the declining retail video game market in the United States, focusing on the lagging hardware segment and the collapse in casual gamer engagement on traditional game systems. Now I want to get to the picture for the market outside of retail, specifically the digital content market.
The NPD Group has been refining its methods for capturing data about the sales for video game content being sold outside the new, packaged retail market. For over two years they have been periodically publishing their estimates for this consumer spending, and I believe are now including it in their U.S. Games Market Dynamics report. The next report, about the first calendar quarter of 2012, is due out next month.
In terms of public data, the NPD Group only reports two types of numbers. The first is the total for new, packaged video game content the physical discs and cartridges and cards on which games are sold. The second type is, quite simply, everything else. That includes used games, full game and add-on content downloads, social network games, mobile games, rentals and subscriptions. For the sake of brevity, I'll refer to this second category as ex-retail.
If you read that description of ex-retail carefully, you'll notice that the data includes money spent on non-physical game content and two specific types of physical content, rentals and used game sales. That makes this a little more tricky, since we don't have just the digital part.
Now, let me outline the numbers we have. According to my records, the information released by the NPD Group shows that the ex-retail sales in the first quarter of 2010 were approximately $1.68 billion. In the first quarter of 2011, that figure rose to approximately $1.85 billion, an increase of 10%.
The final figures for the first quarter of this year aren't out yet, but the preliminary estimates that have been released for individual months are $350-$400 million in January and $550-$600 million in February. (For the sake of completeness, the figure for April was about $350 million again.)
The only figure missing is for March, but the data we have already is troubling. According to these figures, total ex-retail spending was $0.9 - $1.0 billion for the first two months of 2012.
Therefore March would have to come in around $850 million to $950 million in order for this segment of the market to remain flat year-over-year. On a weekly spending basis, consumers would have had to increase their spending by over 35% just in the month of March, just to keep 2012 even with 2011.
If the spending rate in February were to continue through March (i.e. if we scale the 4-week total for February up to a 5-week total for March) then under the most generous assumptions ex-retail sales for the first quarter of 2012 would come in around $1.75 billion, a 5% decline from the 2011 figure. I've visualized that possibility below.
That's the best reasonable case, I believe. If sales in March were more like January or April both of which had averages of about $90 million per week then the industry could end up with a mere $1.45 billion in ex-retail spending in the first quarter of that year. That's not just a 20% decline from last year, but even comes in below 2010's figure.
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Could digital sales also be contracting?
by Aaron Peters
The Department of Health is pleased to announce the launch of the National Cancer Plan for the Isle of Man. The Cancer Plan sets out a strategic direction for the development of cancer services in the Isle of Man over the next ten years. The Cancer Plan has been developed by the Department with the close involvement of a multi-agency team, which contributed to all aspects of the initiative. This will set the scene for a quality Cancer Service in the Isle of Man. The Cancer Plan deals with all the key themes for cancer services, such as information, prevention of cancer, screening and early detection, improving clinical outcomes, palliative care, and living with and beyond cancer, on a chapter by chapter basis. For each chapter, key strategic objectives have been identified which comprise priority targets and key implementation tasks. Each objective contributes to ensuring that the plan is an extensive reflection of the needs of the Islands cancer services. An Implementation Group has been set up, which includes members from Department of Health, Department of Social Care, Hospice Isle of Man, cancer patients and charity representatives. This Group will work together to produce an action plan to ensure that the objectives of the Cancer Plan are successfully implemented across the Island. Minister for Health, David Anderson MHK, said: I would like to congratulate everyone involved in the development of this important document. I am delighted at the way this plan was produced; by involving cancer patients, carers and charities, we were able to gain a full spectrum of views that were fundamental in the creation of the plan. This provides a prime example of the principal approach of the Department, that we take the views of patients very seriously and work with them to shape our services. I strongly recommend the Cancer Plan to everyone with an interest in this area. Dr Parameswaran Kishore, Director of Public Health and Chair of the group which developed the National Cancer Plan, said: Cancer is an important health issue; it is projected that 1 in 3 people will develop cancer at some stage in their life. It is important that we offer the best treatment we can afford for our cancer patients so that our outcomes from cancer are equivalent to those of best regions in the UK the Cancer Plan is the way of achieving such outcomes. Derek Peters, Chair of the Cancer User Forum, said: This plan is a boost for cancer patients in Isle of Man; it has been shaped by cancer patients and carers, who have made a significant contribution in the development of this important plan. I feel that this inclusive approach by the Department has given real meaning to the expression User Led Service. A copy of the Cancer Plan can be found on the Department of Healths website http://www.gov.im/health/services/Public_Health/Service_Improvement/strategies.
- Ends -
Cancer is an important health issue; it is projected that 1 in 3 people will develop cancer at some stage in their life."
Dr Parameswaran Kishore, Director of Public Health
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Department of Health Launches Cancer Plan for the Isle of Man
CARIBBEAN UTILITIES COMPANY, LTD. CLASS A ORDINARY SHARES ARE LISTED FOR TRADING IN UNITED STATES FUNDS ON THE TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE.
GRAND CAYMAN, Cayman Islands, May 18, 2012 /CNW/ - Caribbean Utilities Company, Ltd. (CUP-U.TO) ("CUC" or "the Company") announced today that the Board of Directors has declared a dividend of US$0.165 per Class A Ordinary Share, or an annualized dividend of US$0.66 per share. The dividend will be payable June 15, 2012 to shareholders of record June 4, 2012.
CUC provides electricity to Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, under a non-exclusive Electricity Generation Licence expiring in 2029 and an exclusive Electricity Transmission and Distribution Licence expiring in 2028. Further information is available at http://www.cuc-cayman.com.
Caribbean Utilities Company, Ltd. ("CUC" or "the Company"), on occasion, includes forward-looking statements in its media releases, Canadian securities regulatory authorities filings, shareholder reports and other communications. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon future events or conditions, or include words such as "expects", "anticipates", "plan", "believes", "estimates", "intends", "targets", "projects", "forecasts", "schedule", or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as "may", "will", "should", "would" and "could". Forward-looking statements are based on underlying assumptions and management's beliefs, estimates and opinions, and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations generally that may cause actual results to vary from plans, targets and estimates. Such risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to operational, general economic, market and business conditions, regulatory developments and weather conditions. CUC cautions readers that actual results may vary significantly from those expected should certain risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect. Forward-looking statements are provided for the purpose of providing information about management's current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as required by law.
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CUC announces declaration of dividend on Class A Ordinary Shares