Recent protestsin Iraq have demanded an end to rampant state corruption, the removal of foreign influences from Iraqi politics and the proper provision of public services.
State-Society Relations in Iraq
The causes of these demands are partially shaped by the myriad militia groups that began to emerge at the end of the Baathist era in 2003. They took on greater prominence in response to the threatof ISIS to Iraqs Shia. The most significant of these groups, operating under the Shia dominated umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi), utilize patronage links with Baghdad to support illicit economic activity that deprives the majority of Iraqis wealth. Iraqs state-society relations, therefore, entails that political elites in Baghdad maintainrelationships with state-sanctioned armed groups to buttress the power of the central state and resist inclusive government or wide-spread economic prosperity.
Extortive economic practices
One way in which PMF have spread their influence across the country is by managing and taxing smuggling networks.These networks formed in the late 1990s as Saddam Husseins Baathist regime sought tocircumvent the comprehensive sanctionsregime imposed by the United Nations Security Council and generate revenue from crude oil. In the decade after the 2003 invasion, many of the Baathist officials that had smuggled oil for Saddam joined ISIS and operated along the same routes, reportedly generating$1 million per dayat its peak. As early as2007, Shia militias were also reported to have taken over some of the old Baathist routes and they now maintain significant smuggling routes to and fromIran,Syria, and Turkey. Basra, Iraqs leading oil-producing province, which has been central to the protest movement that began in 2018 is reportedly run by mafiaswho operate arentier economythat fails to translate the density of resources in the area, into widespread economic gains.
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Checkpoints also generate income along the traditional smuggling routes run by a mixture of PMF brigades (such as the powerful Kataib Hezbollah, the Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Saraya al-Salam). It is further supported by federal police, Iraqi Security Forces, and Sunni tribal militias. Taxing the route from oil-rich Basra to the Jordanian borderis a vital source of income that operates with the implicit support of the state.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq, for example, reportedlygenerates $300,000 per daythrough checkpoint fees across Diyala Province.The political economy of Iraq is therefore structured such that state officials in Baghdad benefit from the extractive economic practices carried out by armed, non-state groups who in return gain via patronage links to the central state. For example, the influential PMF, the Badr Organisation, is the military wing of the Fatah party which holds48 seats in the Iraqi Parliament.
As a result, the PMF candraw $2.17 billionfrom the federal budget (reportedlytwice the amountavailable to Kurdish Peshmerga forces), to employ 128,000 personnel. Consequentlysimilarities between Lebanese Hezbollahand the Iraqi militias are be constructed. Despite former Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdiissuing a decree in July, which ordered the PMF to vacate their headquarters and formally integrate into the states security forces, they have continued to entrench their influence over the state and the rest of the country.
The nexus between these non-state actors, the central government and activities such as smuggling and extortion is therefore central to the political economy of contemporary Iraq. Irans alignment compounds the problem with the powerful militia groups.
Irans role
Despite the decentralized and diverse nature of the PMF, the most significant groups profess an ideology of Islamic Revolutionism. This is in line with Irans Qud forces which is the foreign arm of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The head of the Popular Mobilization Committee and Kataib Hezbollah,Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, previously served with the IRGC against Baathist Iraq. The Badr organization, which was created as a formation of theIRGC during the Iran-Iraq Warhas a long history of allegiance to Tehran. Furthermore, newer, emerging groups are thought to have evencloser links to the IRGCthan Badr, suggesting a significant Iranian role in the activities of the PMF.
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In April, the IRGC and the Quds Force were designated as aterrorist entity by President Trump. Kataib Hezbollah, which was a prominent anti-US militia, has held the status since 2009. The designation, which forms part of President Trumps maximum pressure campaign against Iran, may have paradoxically harmed US strategic interests in Iraq. Broadly stated these are to leaveIraq internally stable and free of foreign(read, Iranian) interference. However, with the economic sanctions that come with being designated a terrorist organization by the US, the PMFs commercial interests have become more closely aligned with Tehran and the IRGCs. Unable to access global markets, there is more incentive to maintain the so-called rentier economy.
Conclusion
The system based on patronage links between the state and militias with external connections, which incentives an extortive economy of embedded violence has generated many of the grievances that are driving the current protest movement. This also partially explains why thePMF has been instrumentalin repressing these brutal protests over300 people have diedand 15,000 have been injured. Consequently, the structure of Iraqi governance which generates the incentives for militias to maintain extortive economic practices needs to be addressedbeforethe demands of the protestors can be met.
However, the extent to which these networked links have embedded themselves into Iraqi society implies that the problem of corruption and foreign interference will not be solved by simply replacing the current political elites but will require a bottom-up reconfiguration of much of the economy.
By Jonathan Burden via Global Risk Insights
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The Uncomfortable Truth Behind Iraq's Violent Protests - OilPrice.com