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There is a strange long-distance chess game going on between Dublin and Brussels focused on picking a replacement for Phil Hogan. And this chess game has compounded the already messy political wrangling going inside the three-party Coalition.

he Government's focus has been on trying to figure out what the EU Commission President's next move would be - once they have shown their hand. If they comply with a request to send the name of a man and a woman, is the man definitively not going to get the job? And just what calibre of job might be available?

For those of us who like our politics, this one carries more than a hint of intrigue.

People around Government Buildings keep stressing that Brussels has no legal right to demand two nominations, male and female. This is true - but it does not help things.

Realpolitik is that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has the final decision on who gets what. Given the recent history of this one, it would be prudent to comply with her wishes.

Ireland will not keep Phil Hogan's trade portfolio, but two high-calibre names could secure a meaningful role for his successor, maintaining Irish political heft.

Informal talks are going on between European experts in Government Buildings and Ms von der Leyen's advisory team, while Ireland's EU embassy is heavily on the case. But hard information is scarce - and there can be no guarantees.

In the simplest terms, it means Simon Coveney has no guarantee of anything much. If he lets his name go forward as one of two, he could be rejected in favour of the female nominee. Or, he could come through and be handed a portfolio with little political relevance.

Yesterday in Brussels, Ms von der Leyen hosted the big return-to-work, meeting her Commission team. It was an informal affair focused on identifying the many challenges facing the European Union in the coming months.

Ireland's Commission nominee was at best a sidebar, viewed through the prism of who might be getting promotion now that one of the heavy-hitters, Mr Hogan, had unexpectedly departed. Ms von der Leyen's immediate focus is on her first so-called 'State of the Union' address, to be delivered to the European Parliament next Wednesday week, September 16.

You're already forgiven if you have not heard about this before. It is a product of the 2009 Treaty of Lisbon, borrows heavily from the USA, and is an effort to put more political transparency, and indeed some political oomph, into the EU's sometimes byzantine politics.

Suffice to say this is big stuff for the woman known increasingly as 'VDL' since it is her first of these and she needs to show leadership on Covid-19, Brexit, climate change and a plethora of other pressing issues. When it comes to Irish issues, she can afford to wait.

Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis has taken temporary responsibility for trade. The former Latvian prime minister has been briefed by Mr Hogan and is familiar with the big-picture issues.

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John Downing: In this long-distance chess game there is only one kingmaker - Independent.ie