China’s 2016 economic data, or who says communism isn’t funny … – American Enterprise Institute

In case you were busy with the inauguration, the world dodged a bullet Friday. There was a dark cloud of mystery over whether China would achieve its target of at least 6.5% GDP growth for 2016.

If growth had been announced at 6.4% or, heaven forbid, 6.3%, the consequences for global markets would have been terrible indeed. (Note: 6.2% GDP growth was impossible, as the scale started at 6.3%).

Apartment blocks are pictured on a hazy day in Wuqing district of Tianjin, China, December 10, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee.

Thankfully, GDP growth came in at 6.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.7% in the second quarter, 6.7% in the third quarter, and a blistering 6.8% in the fourth quarter. The crushing tension of not knowing the results ahead of time (because how could we?) has been resolved. The credit for this accomplishment goes to:

In 2016, faced with complicated domestic and international environment, under the leadership of the Central Party Committee headed by General Secretary Xi Jinping as the core, the whole country has carried forward the overall plan for promoting all-round economic, political, cultural, social and ecological progress as well as the Four Pronged Comprehensive Strategy in a coordinated way, adhered to the general work guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, followed the new vision of development, insisted on supply-side structural reform as the mainline, appropriately expanded the aggregate demand, advanced reforms, properly responded to risks and challenges and shaped good social expectations.

A bonus: the secondary goal of getting 100 words into a single sentence was also met.

Investment growth plummeted by an entire tenth of a point in the fourth quarter versus the first three. Retail sales saw the same growth in the fourth quarter as the first three. Consumer inflation did, too. Rail freight showed variability, falling over 7% in the first half then recovering to end less than 1% lower for 2016. The industrial production the rails were first not carrying, then were carrying, showed 6% gains throughout 2016.

The nationwide per capita disposable income of residents grew 6.3% in real terms. The gain for urbanites was 5.6%, for rural citizens 6.2%. Since there is nothing at all odd about any of these numbers, we can embrace as accurate disposable income23,821 yuan, which is less than $3,600 at the average exchange rate for 2016. The closest American equivalent to this figure shows a result ofover $43,000. The anti-China liars who believe the Chinese governments number is understated here (due to unreported income) see the true ratio of the two as only about 1:9, instead of the plainly correct 1:12. China raises the average of global GDP growth. This is very nice for China; it has no inherent benefit to everyone else. For everyone else, China runs a trade surplus, which by definition reduces the GDP of its trade partners as a group. Those who do not understand China properly might also misperceive the money supply situation. The stock of broad money M2 was 155 trillion yuan at the end of last year, over $22.3 trillion. This is $9 trillion more than the US M2 figure, a remarkable achievement given how much poorer Chinese are than Americans. Moreover, the gap in M2 was only $4 trillion as recently as 2011, showing the amazing progress China has made in extending its lead.

Chinas role goes beyond boasting M2 now larger than the US and Japan combined. China certainly does as much to keep global growth stable as any reasonable person could expect. It is said by others to contribute the most to global GDP growth. China raises the average of global GDP growth. This is very nice for China; it has no inherent benefit to everyone else. For everyone else, China runs a trade surplus, which by definition reduces the GDP of its trade partners as a group. Since it runs the largest trade surplus, China can in fact be seen as the biggest inhibitor of the rest of the worlds GDP. President Trump, among others, may want to decline this particular contribution.

Any sarcasm detected would be partly directed at Chinas official numbers and partly at various colleagues in the China economy and finance field commenting on the numbers. While official GDP growth slowed, in perfectly orderly fashion, Chinas macroeconomic performance is in fact generally stronger than a year ago. But the country is very far from being rich, and already massively overleveraged.

Excerpt from:
China's 2016 economic data, or who says communism isn't funny ... - American Enterprise Institute

Related Posts

Comments are closed.