Boris Johnsons Victory and the Political Realignment Shaking Western Democracies – National Review
Britains Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers a statement at Downing Street after winning the general election in London, England, December 13, 2019.(Toby Melville/Reuters)Johnsons electoral triumph proved that politicians who refuse to reckon with the desires of the voters will be crushed even by those who pretend to do so.
Six months ago, the British Conservative party was planning its own funeral; Nigel Farage had embarked on a sold-out tour of its strongholds, helping to cut its vote share to 8.8 percent in the European Parliament elections. Today, the Tories look to be in the prime of their youth. Boris Johnson has taken them to their fourth straight general-election win, the first time in British history that a governing party has increased its share of the vote in four consecutive elections. They now have a mandate for five years of majority government and, judging by Johnsons recent pronouncements, he thinks that theyll have at least five more after that.
A great deal of thought has already been dedicated to figuring out just how the Tories did it. The consensus is that a fusion of Brexit fatigue, Jeremy Corbyns ineptitude, and Johnsons pagan pizzazz won the day. But the forces underlying these contingencies have implications for politics worldwide. They point to a political realignment that could dominate western democracies for years to come.
The 2016 Brexit vote revealed that a large portion of the British population was unrepresented in Westminster party politics, and its aftermath exposed the fact that a large number of politicians would stop at nothing to keep that group unrepresented. To be sure, these MPs would not have put it in such words they thought that attempting to stop Brexit for three years was acting in their constituents best interests. But constituents express their beliefs at the ballot box, and most of them simply did not think that their representatives knew what was best better than they did.
There is plenty to criticize about Johnson and the government that he will now lead, but the same accusation cannot be leveled against them. Johnson ducks scrutiny, avoids substance, and can often seem entirely devoid of empathy. His campaign consisted of the three words Get Brexit Done, spun around like a broken play toy. But these words had more power than Labours message of social justice, just as the Brexit slogan Take Back Control held more sway than the countless predictions that Brexit would bring about economic doom in the run up to the referendum. Both phrases were fashioned by Dominic Cummings, Johnsons infamous chief adviser, and their success point to a very simple fact: Voters believe in democracy, and they do not take nicely to politicians who dont. No handout can compensate for the snobbery of those offering it, because voters disdain moral superiority more than they appreciate moral purity.
The roots of this tension go back decades, as successive British governments implemented EU treaties and constitutional reforms without democratic assent. In 1992, when the European Economic Community turned into the European Union, John Majors government refused to offer the public a referendum on the issue. And in 1997, under Tony Blair, monetary policy was placed in the hands of the Bank of England. The same Blair government pushed for executive asymmetrical devolution in Scotland and Wales, without considering its extreme constitutional implications for Englands representation in Westminster. Then came the 2007 EU Lisbon Treaty, a major change to the U.K.s constitution that Prime Minister Gordon Brown decided he could ratify without asking for voters consent. This move effectively rendered any future promise on migration numbers a lie, because the United Kingdoms borders were made subservient to Eurozone economics. Voters are not stupid: They realize that an open-borders policy raises problems for the welfare state. Ignoring this fact only made room for extremism when the Eurozones economy eventually fell into crisis in 2008.
These were the beginnings of a political realignment that has found its voice in liberal democracies across the continent and beyond a realignment based on the divide between democratic politics and technocratic politics, in which liberals turn to the courts in order to entrench cultural values for which they cannot not secure democratic consent. The Blair years might have seen continuous government, but they also saw a significant drop in voter participation. Labours 2001 and 2005 electoral victories saw turnouts of 59.4 percent and 61.4 percent, respectively some of the highest levels of voter apathy recorded since World War II. This was rule under the primacy of law and economics masked by the pretense of political consent and temporary economic stability. Divides between the electorate and their representatives on questions of immigration, foreign policy, and national identity were buried under a centrist carpet.
Brexit brought the divide into the open, because it gave voters an opportunity to reject the new constitution of a United Kingdom that had been radically transformed since it joined the EU in 1973. An unprecedented number of people did exactly that, and it is no surprise that this vote then took on the political and cultural significance that it did. Politicians across the Commons agreed to let the voters decide, only to explain away the referendums result as an aberration of common sense. Such arrogance meant that Brexit became a symbol of the cultural divide between those who had political control and those whose wishes were considered problems to be solved.
Any politician unwilling to reckon with the scale of the referendum was destined to shrivel into electoral insignificance. Corbyn had no easy way out, because Labour was effectively three different constituencies mashed uncomfortably into one party: middle-class Remainer liberals, woke millennial students, and socially conservative workers. These groups hold irreconcilable views on Brexit and stand in different places along the democratictechnocratic divide. It is a split similarly represented by their Westminster MPs, albeit in distinctly different ratios.
When Corbyn tried to win over Brexit voters, he could not deny that he had allowed a majority of his MPs to prevent Brexits implementation. And when he tried to win over Remainers, he was forced to face the fact that he had never been a Remainer (not to mention the fact that his anti-Western brand of foreign policy is antithetical to many Remainers liberal internationalism). The only group that truly stuck by him were the students, and anyone who knows anything about democracy knows that students dont win you elections.
It is easier for the Right to turn its back on austerity than it is for these fundamental issues to be reconciled on the left. David Cameron showed no interest in winning over the group of working class, culturally conservative, Eurosceptics alienated by Labour, but Johnson knew that convincing them to vote Tory was the key to electoral success. That simply meant doing everything in his power to distance himself from his partys previous three governments on the economy and Brexit. He made a series of generous public-spending promises, even going so far as to question his own partys entire record of austerity. And while Corbyns Labour floundered between Brexit policies, the prime minister kicked out the 21 rebel MPs whod refused to keep open the possibility of leaving the EU without a deal.
It was a radical move, but also a deeply Conservative one. The Tories are the oldest political party in Europe and, by some accounts, the oldest in the world. They co-opt extreme movements, ameliorate them, and incorporate them into their fold; they spend years locked in rampant infighting, only to find a way to work together when election time comes around. This time, they used Brexit to tame a toxic brand of nativism. The two key players, Johnson and Michael Gove, stabbed each other in the back repeatedly before aiming their fire at Corbyn. (Gove twice ran against Johnson for the partys leadership, but has played a major role in his government.) If the Conservative party really is in its youth, then its lifespan will be something to be behold. But it will not be a surprise that it has managed to adapt, because its adaptability is a mainstay of democratic history.
Adaptability can also be called opportunism, and both words apply to Johnson is in equal measure. He knew that assembling the entirety of the Leave coalition was a path to victory, because the Remain vote would be fractured between parties. He knew that Brexit had become a symbol of the divide between democratic politics and technocratic politics, and that party allegiances were being redefined by a set of politicians whose beliefs had long been at odds with their voters. Johnsons tactics may well have been cynical, reckless, and divisive proroguing Parliament is hardly a moderate response to political deadlock. But his claim to be on the side of the people was made convincing by the fact that he was the only potential prime minister promising not to turn his back on a democratic vote. Opportunists wear masks, and often say less than they know. But they arent nave, and Johnson is no exception.
Hence, Johnson and Corbyn can be considered two different kinds of liar. Johnson is untrustworthy, careless, and unprincipled. His lies are half-truths, told with a grin that makes them appear more like chat-up lines. They make some people swoon and some people sick but they also make almost everyone laugh. Corbyns lies do not make people laugh, because they give the impression of someone who is not ready to admit that he is lying. In this election, confronted with a parliamentary-party split on Brexit and an electorate that did not trust him on national security, Corbyns ultimate lie was to pretend that he could conduct his form of politics while staying honest. Asked about his position on Brexit, his partys record of anti-Semitism, and his view on the Russian-poisoning scandal, Corbyn simply equivocated, and pivoted to talk about suffering children.
Nobody ever doubted that Corbyn cares for suffering children, of course. People doubt that he is capable of recognizing that holding political office requires more than caring. He is all passion and no realism, a man of conviction rather than responsibility. Politics is an art of power-plays that often involves difficult choices, not a competition of sincere passions and honest intentions. While Johnson lies for the sake of politics, Corbyn lies about politics, and voters know it. Johnson may be playing a game, aware that he needs power in order to leave behind a legacy. But democracy will always choose a bluffer over a hedger. While Johnson told a series of little lies, Corbyn told a big lie: He pretended that the electorate cared more about his priorities than its own.
Johnson now has five years to make this electoral shift permanent, to convince workers in the North who lent him their vote that they made a wise decision. This means focusing on the so-called peoples priorities another campaign phrase directly lifted from the final line of one of Cummings blog posts. He must secure the trade deals necessary to offset Britains exit from the Eurozone, address regional inequality, get tough on crime, invest in the NHS, crack down on terrorism, and somehow do all of it without alienating wealthier voters in the Southeast.
It remains to be seen how long jail sentences for whistleblowers will be paired with a massive green-energy R&D budget, or whether control of borders is more important to voters than cutting the number of people crossing them (Johnson is adopting an Australian-style points system, but shows no signs of capping immigration). Brexit will have negative economic consequences, and the government will have to borrow its way through them. Its coalition is made up of groups that will shrink with time older, whiter, and less qualified than tomorrows population.
But perhaps the greatest question mark is whether the Tories can hold the U.K. together along the way. Johnsons victory was primarily an English victory. His Brexit deal effectively means that Northern Ireland will stay part of the single market, making the case for unification with Ireland proper more credible. Meanwhile, the Scottish National partys dominance in Scotland puts the union under further threat from the North; SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has already demanded another independence referendum.
But ironically, a divided Britain is likely to hurt Labour more than the Conservatives. After it was wiped out in Scotland in 2015, Labour effectively lost any path to an electoral majority and an independent Scotland would only cement its political impotence. Though many in the party are justified in considering how it can reclaim the working-class constituencies with which it fell out of touch, perhaps a better approach would be to double down on its success in big cities. Deserting its historic base and teaming up with the Liberal Democrats for the college-educated vote may help the party in the long term, but would also turn it into an entirely different organization (and could lead it to a similar fate as the French Socialists). The triumph of Conservative adaptability has often been aided by the failure of the Tories opponents to adapt, and the Tories current opponents have a difficult task ahead of them.
In 2015, Cameron was hailed as a magician for leading the Tories to a meager twelve-seat majority, and an era of coalitions and minority governments was expected to rule Britain for decades. In 2020, Johnson has a stronger mandate for reform than almost any other leader of a liberal-democratic country on Earth. The EU will have no choice but to negotiate with his team: Brussels faces enough problems of its own and will not want to be blamed for creating another. And if Johnson can temper threats to the union while Labour continues its infighting, he will be practically beyond parliamentary scrutiny.
None of this is to say that Johnson will have it easy. He will likely soon face the difficulties that such power brings: Party conflict, economic downturns, and geopolitical crises. But this election was a sign that politicians who have refused to reckon with the beliefs of their voters will be crushed even by those who have pretended to do so. In other countries, the catalyst for this realization may not be Brexit. Indeed, Brexit may have forced a conversation to take place in Britain that many liberal democracies cannot yet bring themselves to have.
Read this article:
Boris Johnsons Victory and the Political Realignment Shaking Western Democracies - National Review
- Iran is more prepared for democracy than many realize - The Japan Times - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- To Fight Antisemitism and Preserve Democracy, Educators and the Jewish Community Must Partner Closely | Opinion - Newsweek - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Appeals Court Delivers Another Blow to Voting Rights Act - Democracy Docket - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Theme Panel: Democracy and the Populist Critique: Are We Too Concerned about Stability? - - Political Science Now - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Mass Deportation: Analyzing the Trump Administration's Attacks on Immigrants, Democracy, and America - American Immigration Council - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Are 16-year-old voters the key to future-proofing democracy? - RFI - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- The decay within: Why the EU needs to help defend Bulgarias democracy - European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Council Appoints Juarez to Serve Out Cathy Moores Term, Accusations Fly Over Democracy Voucher Collection - PubliCola - - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- A Call for Realism, Love, Localism, and Democracy: Review of Rory Stewarts Politics on the Edge - providencemag.com - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- Democracy is at stake in Harvards lawsuit against Trump - Salon.com - July 28th, 2025 [July 28th, 2025]
- California Governor Gavin Newsom calls GOP's push to redraw congressional maps in TX an 'existential crisis to democracy' - ABC13 Houston - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- EPIC Teams Up with EFF, Protect Democracy Project to Support States Bid to Block DHS Access to Medicaid Data - EPIC Electronic Privacy Information... - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Haslag: 3 ideas for starting to dig our democracy out of its current hole | Opinion - Springfield News-Leader - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- The Death of Democracy in America Is Boring - LEVEL Man - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Trump Signs Rescission Bill Clawing Back $9B for Foreign Aid and Public Broadcasting - Democracy Now! - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Catawba College and The Carter Center team up to bolster democracy in North Carolina - wfdd.org - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Constitution House of Tabriz: where Irans struggle for democracy has its roots in - Tehran Times - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Bots, buzzers and AI-driven campaigning distort democracy - East Asia Forum - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Why Is the World Letting It Happen?: U.K. Surgeon, Back from Gaza, on Starving Children - Democracy Now! - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- League of Women Voters event to feature BadAss Grandmas for Democracy - InForum - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- GUEST COMMENTARY: Avoiding your neighbor because of how they voted? Democracy needs you to talk to them instead - thetimestribune.com - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- Lowering the vote to 16 can improve democracy, research shows - Australian Broadcasting Corporation - July 27th, 2025 [July 27th, 2025]
- China 'clearly' trying to interfere in Taiwan's democracy, Taipei says before recall vote - Reuters - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Intervening coalitions request preliminary injunction in Arkansas direct democracy lawsuit - News From The States - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Trumps Attack on Immigrants Is the Tip of the Spear for His Attack on Democracy - American Immigration Council - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Benjamin Garcia-Holgado Receives the 2025 Edward S. Corwin Award for The Judicial Bulwark: Courts and the Populist Erosion of Democracy - Political... - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- The Homelessness Crisis Is a Crisis of Democracy - Jacobin - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- One Meal Every Three Days: Journalist & Aid Worker Back from Gaza on Stark Reality on the Ground - Democracy Now! - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Press Release: Senator Roger Marshall Discusses Obama Administration's Alleged Threat to Democracy on Newsmax - Quiver Quantitative - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Dont give up on democracy: Edgar Lins mission rooted in family and experience - Madison365 - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- 2025 Democracy Service Medal: Honoring the Legacy of Oswaldo Pay - National Endowment for Democracy - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Senator Marshall: The Obama White House Was the True Threat to Democracy - Senator Roger Marshall (.gov) - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- MEDIA ADVISORY: The 13th High-Level Dialogue on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance: Trends, Challenges, and Prospects, under the theme Justice,... - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Letter to the Editor: Term limits will save democracy and cure cancer! - Main Street Media of Tennessee - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- In Brenda Wineapple's "Keeping the Faith: God, Democracy, and the Trial That Riveted a Nation" readers revisit The Scopes Trial - WAMC - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- With Maine voter ID referendum, democracy is in the details | Opinion - The Portland Press Herald - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- U.K. Police Arrest Another 100 for Supporting Banned Group Palestine Action - Democracy Now! - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Ricig joins Nestor and Dan Rodricks for coffee and democracy chatter at Zekes in Lauraville - baltimorepositive.com - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- Editorial: Zelensky just betrayed Ukraine's democracy and everyone fighting for it - The Kyiv Independent - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- How Anti-Affirmative Action Crusaders Are Escalating Their War on Inclusive Democracy - Balls and Strikes - July 24th, 2025 [July 24th, 2025]
- PBS and NPR are generally unbiased, independent of government propaganda and provide key benefits to US democracy - The Conversation - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- The Guardian view on votes at 16: democracy belongs to the young too | Editorial - The Guardian - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Terms of Engagement Democracy: The Worst Form of Government Except All the Rest? - Ash Center - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Democracy Vouchers are serving Chinatown-ID; lets renew them - International Examiner - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- New York Citys Ranked Choice Voting: Democracy Thats Accountable to Voters - The Fulcrum - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Opinion | In Georgia, the EUs commitment to democracy is being tested and it may be failing - OC Media - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Democrats Endorse Omar Fateh to Be Next Mayor of Minneapolis - Democracy Now! - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Former EPA Official on Trump Gutting Science Research Office: People Are Not Going to Be Protected - Democracy Now! - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Democracy is pissed and shes raining - Illinois Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- OPINION Assault on literacy: Banned books and the destruction of our democracy - Windy City Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- How Western democracy died Real change is an illusion - UnHerd - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- The EUs strategic compromises are blinding it to the ongoing fight for democracy in Serbia - ceps.eu - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Democracy in Crisis as Half of Young People Fail to Register to Vote - Byline Times - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Experts Issue Stark New Warning About Nuclear Weapons, 80 Years After Trinity Test - Democracy Now! - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- Two Ultra-Orthodox Parties Leave Netanyahus Government Coalition - Democracy Now! - July 22nd, 2025 [July 22nd, 2025]
- The Next Phase in Destroying Israeli Democracy Begins: Ousting the Attorney General - Haaretz - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- The Pollster Who Sensed Democracy Was Faltering - The Atlantic - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Whatever Evers decides, Wisconsin is heading into a high-stakes battle for democracy - Wisconsin Examiner - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Automatic voter registration: a huge step forward for democracy and a chance to bring missing millions into elections - The Conversation - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Opinion | We Need Human Connection to Heal Democracy and Build Shared Prosperity - Common Dreams - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- All the States Where DOJ is Demanding Voting Data - Democracy Docket - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- News - Updating the Arsenal of Democracy: Allies Embrace Co-Production Model - DVIDS - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- A half year of devastation: Trumps first six months shakes American democracy - New York Daily News - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Emerging right-wing politics a threat to democracy - New Age BD - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- This Week in Democracy Week 26: Soft on Child Abuse, Tough on Public Broadcasting - Zeteo - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Opinion | Defunding Public Media Makes Perfect Sense If Destroying Democracy Is the Goal - Common Dreams - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- From military coups to elections: where is African democracy heading? - africanews.com - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Democracy Is Dying But Hey Nice Fireworks Funny 4th Of July T Shirt - roarmag.org - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Noto Democracy and the slow work of civic change - The Japan Times - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- "Good Trouble Lives On" in Whittier California! Honoring the late US Representative John Lewis, the Community Rallied for Democracy and... - July 20th, 2025 [July 20th, 2025]
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Lowering the voting age: a boost for UK democracy or a shot in the dark? - The Guardian - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- From Voices to Visions: Reflections on Climate Democracy in Practice - International IDEA - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Imagining The Path Forward for The Healthy Democracy Ecosystem - The Fulcrum - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Republicans Advance Trump Judicial Nominee Said to Have Urged Court Defiance - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- An Urgent Warning from Texas: A Conversation on Defending Democracy and Fighting Authoritarianism in the States - Center for American Progress - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- How we Treat [Immigrants] will Shape the Future of Our Democracy and Our Moral Character - The Birmingham Times - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Britain will lower its voting age to 16 in a bid to strengthen democracy - AP News - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Democracy is not theirs to dismantle. More than 120 people turn out for 'Good Trouble' protest - GazetteXtra - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]
- Dems to Fight Texas Illegal, Unconstitutional and Egregious Effort to Rig the Elections - Democracy Docket - July 18th, 2025 [July 18th, 2025]