Global Perspective: Democracies still have edge over autocracies like China – The Mainichi – The Mainichi
Vice President Kamala Harris listens as President Joe Biden speaks about distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, in the East Room of the White House, on Monday, May 17, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Since the Biden administration came to power in the United States, solidarity among democracies has been emphasized more than ever. Although he does not use the term "Cold War," President Joe Biden says that there is a competition between democracy and autocracy with China, which he considers "the only competitor." In this camp of "democracy" propelled by the Biden administration, Japan is naturally the most promising partner as the country has advocated a "quad" summit of Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India, and has been the world's foremost proponent of the concept of a "free and open Indo-Pacific."
On the other hand, democracy is said to be undergoing a crisis on a global scale. The coup d'etat in Myanmar and the ensuing chaos have been a setback for countries seeking democracy. The "one country, two systems" framework in Hong Kong has effectively been dismantled. Even among the European Union member states that make democracy an eligibility requirement for participation, there is a tendency toward autocracy, as in Poland and Hungary. To begin with, the U.S. itself was experiencing a crisis of democracy during the last months of the Trump administration. The Chinese Communist Party is boasting about the superiority of its own system in dealing with COVID-19.
Leading organizations that have been compiling data on democratic trends around the world are also becoming increasingly concerned. The title of the 2021 annual report of the U.S.-based Freedom House organization is "Democracy under Siege," and the title of the annual report of the V-DEM Institute headquartered at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden is "Autocratization Turns Viral."
According to V-DEM data, in 2010 there were 41 countries that were rated as liberal democracies, but by 2020 there were only 32. The number of countries rated as "democracies," which includes countries rated as "electoral democracies" that are not so liberal but still hold relatively fair elections, dropped from 98 in 2010 to 92 in 2020.
Freedom House categorizes countries into three levels: "free," "partly free," and "not free." Its data also shows that the number of free countries fell from 89 in 2010 to 84 in 2020. Both organizations use their own measurements to make these assessments, but I calculated the correlation coefficient between the two organizations' original data before classification to be about 0.95, which is extremely high, so it would not make much difference in the analysis.
The V-DEM report also points out that the population of autocratic countries accounts for 68% of the world's population, while the population of the 32 free democracies is only 14%. The reason the population of autocratic countries has reached 68% is that, under V-DEM's assessment, India has fallen from an electoral democracy to an "electoral autocracy" where elections are held, but people's rights are violated. The crisis facing democracy is evident in the fact that the "world's largest democracy" is now regarded as not democratic enough. (V-DEM classifies despotic countries that do not even hold elections as "closed autocracies," and refers to both "electoral autocracies" and "closed autocracies" together as "autocracies.")
Under these circumstances, can democracies compete with the rise of China? President Biden says, "We have to prove democracy still works," but is that really possible?
The challenges for democracies are great. Excessive optimism, as in the immediate aftermath of the end of the Cold War, was a mistake. But I think it is also a mistake to be overly pessimistic about democracy. First, I am sure that there are many people (perhaps more than a majority) around the world who want democracy. It is obviously the case if you look at the protests staged by people in places such as Hong Kong and Myanmar. People living in autocratic countries, 68% of the global population, do so not because they think autocracy is good. Some of them are actively resisting, while many others are putting up with it out of necessity.
Second, if we look at the long-term trend from the 20th century to the 21st century, it is clear that the number of autocratic countries has been decreasing. It is true that the situation in many countries is worse than it was in 2010, but if we include electoral democracies that hold fair elections, there will still be more democracies in 2020.
Third, if the specific challenge for democracies at this stage is to protect their freedom from the threat of autocratic countries, we must remember that democracies still have plenty of power. In the four categories of political systems defined by V-DEM, the gross domestic product in 2019 as a percentage of the world total was 17% for closed autocracies, 12% for electoral autocracies, 11% for electoral democracies, and 60% for liberal democracies. Most of the share of closed autocracies (13.6% of the total) comes from China. In other words, there are only 32 free democracies, but their economies still dominate the world. There is no reason to underestimate this market size and economic power.
In the end, the only external threat to democracies is China. Even against China, the economies of the liberal democracies as a whole are overwhelmingly large: the GDP of the G7 countries alone accounts for 45% of the world's GDP. Dazed by China's remarkable rapid growth since the beginning of the 21st century, the Chinese people and much of the world have been under the illusion that the future lies under autocracy. It is quite possible for liberal democracies to prove the superiority of democracy as a system of governance if they earnestly work together.
(By Akihiko Tanaka, President, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
- Protests are the last thing keeping Turkeys democracy alive - The Economist - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Ive never seen such clampdowns in Istanbul. Turkeys democracy is fighting for its life | Orhan Pamuk - The Guardian - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Democracy is more than rules and institutions, its a way of life - The Conversation - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Voters Need to Know What Redboxing Is and How It Undermines Democracy - Campaign Legal Center - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Trumps Latest Executive Order is a Shamand a Warning - Democracy Docket - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- How the Fight for American Democracy Can Start with Unions - Progressive.org - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- US swing toward autocracy doesnt have to be permanent but swinging back to democracy requires vigilance, stamina and elections - The Conversation - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Donald Trumps chilling effect on free speech and dissent is threatening US democracy - The Conversation - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes - Paul Krugman and Zachary D. Carter in Conversation - CUNY Graduate Center - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Hip-Hop Star Macklemore on New Film The Encampments & Why He Speaks Out Against Israels War on Gaza - Democracy Now! - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Why Elon Musk, GOP Are Trying to Buy the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election - Democracy Docket - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Free Inquiry & Expression and the Future of Democracy Series Continues March 27 - Stetson University - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Arkansas AG rejects proposed ballot measure to amend states direct democracy process - Arkansas Advocate - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Our Voice: Threats to Democracy, From Oopsie Too late, to Ignoring Classified Communications - The Ark Valley Voice - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- For the sake of US democracy, its time for Chuck Schumer to step down | Leah Greenberg and Ezra Levin - The Guardian - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- To Build a Better Democracy, Start by Rethinking Your Relationship to the Internet - Tech Policy Press - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Duluth Residents Share Concerns at a Town Hall Hosted by Practicing Democracy - FOX 21 Online - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- GOP Slammed Bidens Voting Order as Federal Overreach But Praised Trumps - Democracy Docket - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Democracy in Action group to host Hixson town hall for lawmakers Blackburn, Fleischmann and Hagerty - Chattanooga Times Free Press - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Pro-Beijing Chinese Influencers Kicked Out in Test for Small Democracy - Newsweek - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- Comments - This Week in Democracy Week 10: Trump Brags About Institutions 'Bending' to His Will - Zeteo - March 30th, 2025 [March 30th, 2025]
- The frog of democracy is nearly boiled. We can still jump out of the pot - The Philadelphia Inquirer - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Fear and anger as 'battle for the soul of Romanian democracy' looms - BBC.com - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Erdogans crackdown: Turkey and the fight for democracy - European Council on Foreign Relations - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- ICYMI: Democracy Forward Challenges Trumps Executive Overreach and Attacks on Legal System - Democracy Forward - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Mourning Democracy, Professors Lambast Columbia Administrators for Submitting to Trump - The Chronicle of Higher Education - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- SCOTUS Hears Latest Conservative Assault on the Voting Rights Act - Democracy Docket - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Civics Education Is About More Than Elections Its the Foundation of Democracy - The 74 - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Avoiding your neighbor because of how they voted? Democracy needs you to talk to them instead - The Conversation Indonesia - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Chicago priests warn about growing Trump threats to immigrants and democracy - People's World - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Trump is abandoning democracy and freedom. That creates an opening for Europe and Britain | Jonathan Freedland - The Guardian - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Poll: 63% of public fears for Israeli democracy as government votes to fire Shin Bet head - The Times of Israel - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- In a true democracy Netanyahu has the right to remove the head of the Shin Bet - Ynetnews - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Purple reign: NCs history of split-ticket voting is democracy working - Carolinacoastonline - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- Do You Want to Fight Back Against Elon Musks Attack on our Democracy? - Shepherd Express - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- 'This game is not over ... our democracy is worth fighting for' is Rep. Summer Lee's rallying cry at Hill District town hall - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - March 25th, 2025 [March 25th, 2025]
- When Did We Decide That Democracy and Improving Peoples Lives Contradicted Each Other? - Esquire - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- An Unprecedented, Breathtaking Assault on American Democracy: LWV Responds to Trump Administrations First 60 Days - League of Women Voters - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Opinion | Dont count on the courts to save democracy - The Washington Post - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Video. We need to improve democracy, Lech Wasa says - Euronews - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- DOGEs USAID Takeover Likely Violated the Constitution, Judge Says - Democracy Docket - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Commentary: California sheriffs are becoming MAGA allies and threatening democracy - Stocktonia News - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- The End of US Democracy and the Implications for International Relations - E-International Relations - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Why Indonesias new military law is alarming pro-democracy activists and rights groups - The Associated Press - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Breaking Social Security: Trump & Musk Move Ahead with Plan to Cut Agency Staff & Services - Democracy Now! - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Chris Murphy: 'If We Continue to Engage in Business as Usual, This Democracy Could Be Gone' - Rolling Stone - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- House Of Lords Thrown Into 'Chaos' As Democracy Protesters Bring Debate To A Halt - Yahoo News UK - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Unchaining Venezuela: a struggle for democracy - The London School of Economics and Political Science - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Murkowski says Trump is testing the institutions of democracy - KTOO - March 20th, 2025 [March 20th, 2025]
- Democrats grapple with Trump, democracy and an argument that didnt work - The Hill - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Trumps Cuts to Democracy Promotion Like the NED Already Hit Asian Organizations Hard - Council on Foreign Relations - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- A Slim Majority of Voters Think U.S. Democracy Is Currently Working Well - Data For Progress - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Ken Roth on Israels Starvation Strategy in Gaza & Righting Wrongs of Abusive Governments - Democracy Now! - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- African Democracy Is in Retreat. That's a Problem for America | Opinion - Newsweek - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Political science department hosts discussion on the state of U.S. democracy - The Collegian University of Richmond - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- LETTER TO THE EDITOR: Join Light For Our Democracy - Marblehead Current - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Polish democracy hero Wasa says Trumps treatment of Zelenskyy filled him with horror - The Associated Press - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Trumps War Against Democracy and the Rules-Based World Order - The Globalist - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Authoritarianism expert weighs in on Trump, Musk and the fate of U.S. democracy | Here & Now - WBUR News - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Letter: Do we have any way to save our besieged democracy? - Yakima Herald-Republic - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- The Freak Show: Our Democracy Is Being Dismantled Right Before Our Eyes - Aquarian Weekly - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Mayor Johnson heads to Washington to be grilled on immigration. GOP should focus on democracy instead. - Chicago Sun-Times - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Democracy that works - Anhui News - March 3rd, 2025 [March 3rd, 2025]
- Trumps moves test the limits of presidential power and the resilience of US democracy - The Associated Press - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Passing SAVE Act Would Be Taking a Chainsaw to Democracy - Democracy Docket - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Just 6% of the worlds population live in a full democracy, new report claims - The Independent - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Bezos, Billionaires and Bibi: Democracy and the Free Press Are Shrinking - Haaretz - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- California to launch first-in-the-nation digital democracy effort to improve public engagement - Office of Governor Gavin Newsom - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Defending American arts, culture, and democracy - Brookings Institution - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- European Reactions to the U.S. Retreat From Democracy - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Urge Your Members of Congress to Stand Up for Democracy - League of Women Voters - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- A Protest, a Phone Call, and the Power of Democracy - LGBTQ Victory Institute - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- This Week in Democracy - Week 6: Chaos in the Oval, Attacks on the Press, and What Did you Accomplish Last Week - Zeteo - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Defining Oligarchy: The Fusion of Wealth and Power in American Democracy - Baylor University - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Opinion | The Worst Existential Threat to American Democracy Is Already Here: Voter Suppression - Common Dreams - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Democracy in the crosshairs - IPS Journal - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Separation of powers and democracy under threat in US - MSR News Online - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Extended Interview: Mark Graham on Internet Archives Work Preserving the Web as Govt Sites Go Dark - Democracy Now! - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Wayback Machine Saves Thousands of Federal Webpages Amid Purge of Government Data Under Trump - Democracy Now! - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]
- Human Rights and Democracy in the Quantum Age - Just Security - March 1st, 2025 [March 1st, 2025]