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Kentucky Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes will be watched like a hawk for the next few months, and you can bet she knows it. Grimes, who currently serves as Kentuckys Secretary of State, easily won the Democratic primary on Tuesday and will advance to face long-time senator and incumbent Mitch McConnell in Novembers general election.

Grimes seeks to unseat McConnell as one of Kentuckys senators. That would be a major coup for the Democrats, since McConnell is Senate Minority Leader and a major thorn in the side of Democrats on many issues. To that end, Grimes is using a classic approach when running against an incumbent. She is out to convince people that it is time for a change.

Of course, the last thing Mitch McConnell wants is change, in one sense. But McConnell is also a seasoned veteran of electoral politics. He has held his seat in the Senate since 1985. He has fended off many challenges to his seat; the perennial Ditch Mitch yard signs and bumper stickers have had no effect on him.

McConnell knows that you cant run against a message of change with a message of status quo, not in a time when people are hurting. If folks were doing well and felt they would continue to do well, the old dont change horses midstream approach would work. But now it wont, and McConnell knows it.

McConnells approach, instead, is two-pronged. He knows that Kentucky has been a red state ever since 2000. The Bluegrass State swung for Bill Clinton twice, even while keeping McConnell every time they had the chance to vote. And Kentucky has kept Democrat governors for 50+ years briefly interrupted by a single term for Republican Ernie Fletcher from 2003-2007. But Kentucky was firmly in the red zone against Obama. So prong one of McConnells plan is to paint Alison Lundergan Grimes as Obamas candidate.

Prong two is to co-opt Grimes call for change by calling for some change himself. But in McConnells case, the change he wants is to become Senate Majority Leader. His hope is to lead the charge in a nationwide rout of Democrats, sweeping Republicans into a majority victory in November. His message to Kentuckians is to re-elect him, and take the lead in the nation.

For her part, Grimes is countering by asserting her independence from Obama and the Democrat party in general. She says she is against coal regulations, even though Republicans will say she supports them. She is taking her message of independence directly to the people in Eastern Kentucky, where coal mining jobs are at the top of the list of priorities.

Grimes will have the task of portraying McConnell as an establishment relic, the leader of the gridlock in Washington, and the puppet of the oil industry, who stands to gain personally, but will bring nothing back to Kentucky when he does. It will be a tough sell. Every McConnell opponent so far has tried that approach. So far, all have failed.

But the stars are aligning a bit differently in this election than before. Despite Grimes need to assert her independence, there is little doubt that Democrat money will pour in to Kentucky over the next five months. Big Dem names will show up in the state, maybe even a Clinton.

What Grimes knows is that Democrats outnumber Republicans in Kentucky by a margin of 57% to 37%. But that margin has still kept McConnell for 30 years. To win, she must be seen as her own woman, not Obamas. She must walk the line that so many Democrat governors have walked to win in Kentucky. She must be seen as loyal to her state, not to the party.

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Alison Lundergan Grimes: Obamas Candidate?