Democrats Have Their Own Challenges In Talking About Racial Issues In The Trump Era – FiveThirtyEight
Aug. 15, 2017 at 11:34 AM
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in Berryville, Virginia, on July 24 to unveil the Democrats new agenda.
The events in Charlottesville over the weekend put President Trump on the defensive about why white nationalists see him as an ally, led key figures in his own party to distance themselves from the president and inspired some Democratic Party officials from around the country to either consider or accelerate the process of taking down symbols of the Confederacy in their cities and states. If American politics increasingly revolves around questions of culture, identity and race, as it often seems, the Democratic Party looked unified and confident amid the Charlottesville news, while Republicans were divided and a bit at sea about what exactly to say.
But there is a real, pressing battle in the Democratic Party over identity issues too, with some in the party worried that movements like Black Lives Matter turn off white voters while others say the Democrats should speak bluntly and unequivocally on issues that particularly affect women and nonwhite voters.
We also have to avoid vilifying people whose social views arent as progressive as we think they should be, reads the mission statement of a new group of centrist Democrats called New Democracy. The group, whose advisory board includes Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and Alabama Rep. Terri Sewell, argues that both parties have indulged in a civically corrosive form of identity politics.
But Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a key figure in the partys left wing and a potential 2020 candidate, said in a recent speech, The Democratic Party isnt going back to the days of welfare reform and the crime bill. It is not going to happen. Were not going back to the days of being lukewarm on choice.
Before Charlottesville at least, Democrats appeared to have arrived at a compromise between their two wings: keeping their liberal stands on cultural issues, but highlighting them a bit less. Last month, congressional Democrats unveiled a new slogan, A Better Deal: Better Jobs, Better Wages, Better Future, and a batch of populist-tinged policies like making it harder for big companies in the same industry to merge.
The proposals themselves and the FDR-style rhetoric surrounding them show the Democrats trying to capture the populist appeal that seemed to drive both Trump and Bernie Sanderss presidential runs last year. The Better Deal ideas are almost exclusively about economic issues and largely do not address subjects like immigration, abortion or racial discrimination.
Economic populism could work for Democrats. Trump, as FiveThirtyEight detailed after the election, was particularly strong in areas where residents had lower credit scores, men had stopped working, and where jobs are vulnerable to automation and outsourcing. Areas, in other words, where people have reason to worry about their economic future.
But heres the big potential problem for Democrats: What if Trumps victory carrying more than 200 counties where former President Barack Obama had won in 2008 and 2012 was not primarily driven by his populist economic appeals, but by his rhetoric and policies around race and identity issues instead? Trumps denunciations of Black Lives Matter, his embrace of building a wall to keep Mexicans from coming to the U.S., and his proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the country were just as much a part of his campaign as his promises to bring back coal jobs.
In short, what if the Democrats problems with white working-class voters are more about them being white than working-class?
There is reason to be skeptical that economic populism will win back Trump voters for Democrats; some scholars argue that cultural and racial issues were more important than economics to voters who cast a ballot for Obama in 2012 and then Trump in 2016. An analysis by New Americas Lee Drutman (based on a series of polls conducted by YouGov) concluded that Obama-Trump voters had more liberal views on economic issues (like the importance of Social Security and Medicare) but more conservatives ones on cultural issues, such as immigration and their attitudes toward blacks and Muslims.
The Obama to Trump voter looks very much like [Mitt] Romney to Trump supporters on attitudes toward African-Americans, feelings on immigration, and attitudes toward Muslims. Interestingly, the Obama to Trump voter is not as conservative on moral issues, and looks like a [Hillary] Clinton voter on concerns about inequality, Drutman wrote.
Political scientist John Sides, looking at that same YouGov data set and concentrating on white Obama-Trump and Romney-Clinton voters, found that the factors that were more highly correlated in 2016 than in 2012 in terms of predicting peoples votes were immigration, feelings about blacks and feelings about Muslims, not economic factors.
Similarly, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) found that fears of America becoming too influenced by foreign nations and favoring the deportation of undocumented immigrants were both stronger predictors of support for Trump among white, working-class voters than whether those voters said they were personally suffering from a lack of money.
Were not going to settle whether race and culture or economic anxiety was the primary driver of Trumps victory here both likely played some role but if culture and race are a big part of the problem, what should the Democrats do? The Better Deal is one move, but not the end of the debate about the Democratic Partys future. More populism was the easy part of the new agenda; figuring out race and identity is more challenging as the events in Charlottesville showed.
Generally, the what do Democrats do next conversation features two big questions in terms of race and culture: message and messenger.
Should the Democrats take more conservative stances on race and identity issues, keep the same policies but talk about them less, or keep the same policies and the same strong message regarding them?
I suspect Democrats will largely take the middle course: more populism, less talk about race and identity but without any real shifts in position on those issues. This is essentially a bet that Trumps unpopularity will help lift the Democratic Party to major gains, so they dont need a broader political course correction on race and identity. Such a middle course would also acknowledge reality: Democrats, with a party that is about 45 percent non-white, cant try to ape Trumps racial appeals to woo whites. The days of a Democrat running for president and distancing himself from a black hip-hop artist to appeal to whites (as Bill Clinton did in 1992) are probably over. Not moving right would also reflect the increasing liberalism of the Democratic Party.
But this is a tense divide, and a hard one for Democrats to discuss openly. The voices in the party advocating that it tone down its cultural messages tend to be white and male, while the strongest advocates of strong liberal stands on identity issues are often female and nonwhite.
Should Democrats run candidates who they think appeal specifically to white Trump voters, be mindful but not overly focused on that factor or ignore it completely? For example, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has annoyed some Democratic activists by saying that Democrats should embrace some congressional candidates opposed to abortion rights, particularly in more conservative areas.
We dont totally know exactly what kind of candidate appeals to a white Trump voter, since some of those voters backed Obama in 2008 and 2012. But you could argue that the most logical candidate, in terms of identity politics, to appeal to white, Christian male voters would be a white Christian male. (Trump ran very strong among white men and white evangelicals.)
Looking forward, this makes the 2020 Democratic field interesting. The well-known white Christian men who might otherwise be logical candidates for the Democrats have some obvious potential challenges. Trump, at age 70, was the oldest person ever first elected president. So California Gov. Jerry Brown, who is 79, and Joe Biden, 74, are facing Americas historic preference for younger candidates. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is 59, but liberal activists hate him. Hickenlooper, 65, just has not galvanized party activists so far. Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, 59, has already said he will not run. Ohios Tim Ryan and Massachusetts Seth Moulton are hinting that they might consider presidential runs, and the kind of unspoken assumption here is that those relatively obscure U.S. House members could have a chance in part because Democratic primary voters might be looking for candidates who they think can appeal to Trump voters in a general election.
Many of the people whom party activists are talking about running in 2020 are not the most obvious fit with Trump voters, at least in terms of their identities: Bernie Sanders (who is Jewish), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (black), California Sen. Kamala Harris (a black woman) and Warren (a white woman). This dynamic is playing out at the state level as well, as a lot of the candidates who have been energized to run for office since Trump won are women and people of color.
The easiest response for Democrats is to ignore this candidate factor: Obama won in 2008 and 2012, after all. We simply dont know which candidates will appeal to voters in the future. And its unfair to Trump voters to suggest that they wouldnt consider a black woman, since some of them backed Obama, and unfair to Harris and Warren to suggest that they shouldnt run for president because Americans havent elected a female candidate before.
But Trump highlighted issues of race and identity much more explicitly than John McCain or Mitt Romney did in their campaigns against Obama. I would expect him to do so again if he runs in 2020. The president has abandoned some of his campaign promises, but not the Muslim ban and the border wall. So we can expect these identity issues to be front of mind for voters. Or, as Drutman put it:
As long as ethno-cultural identity issues are salient, it will be hard for Democrats to win back Obama-Trump voters. And as long as Trump is president, ethno-cultural identity issues will be salient, because thats Trumps MO.
Several Democratic officials I spoke to privately took a more enthusiastic view. Essentially, they argued that its impossible to figure out exactly why Clinton lost in 2016 and that trying to figure out how much was race, how much was economics and how much was just Clinton is impossible and not that important: She barely lost in a weird race, and maybe a combination of more voters turned off by Trump, increased populism from Democrats and candidates other than Clinton is enough to win at least some Obama-Trump voters back.
That doesnt sound convincing. But remember: Democrats were sure that they were screwed with Christian and Middle America voters after the 2004 elections, then won the presidency in 2008 while making some small gains among those voters. Republicans were convinced they were screwed after the 2012 elections because of their unpopularity with people of color, but then won in 2016 while barely making any gains among people of color. Populism may not be the path back, but it looks a lot more logical than running a first-time senator (Obama in 2005) or a businessman with no political experience (Trump 2013) were three years before those approaches worked.
- Trump Renews Threat to Cut Democrat Programs as Government Shutdown Enters Third Week - The New York Times - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Trump news at a glance: Administration will produce list of Democrat programs to be closed due to shutdown - The Guardian - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Trump says he will unveil list on Friday of 'Democrat programs' to be shut - Reuters - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Trump says he will unveil list on Friday of 'Democrat programs' to be shut - Yahoo - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Speaker Johnson on Day 14 of the Democrat Shutdown: The Democrats $1.5 Trillion Bill to Reopen the Government is an Unserious Proposal Made by... - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Trump threatens aid to Argentina based on election - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- House Democrat Says Viral Clashes Breaking Through With Voters - Bloomberg Government News - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Commentary: In shutdown fight, this Nevada Democrat stands (almost) alone. And she's fine with that - Los Angeles Times - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Trump To Unveil List Of 'Democrat Programs' That Will Be Cut Amid Shutdown - iHeart - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Fox Reporter Grills Speaker Johnson Over Refusal to Swear In New Democrat And the Epstein Files - Yahoo - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Fort Smith man arrested regarding aggravated assault with firearm - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 15th, 2025 [October 15th, 2025]
- Democrat candidate called out over 'really troubling' response to debate question - Fox News - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- The 1 Senate Democrat facing dire consequences from the shutdown is holding firm - Politico - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Eyeing Andy Harris, a top Democrat waits on redistricting decision - The Baltimore Banner - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Little Rock officials approve bill of rights for firefighters - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Arkies in this Beltway | Week of Oct. 12, 2025 - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Scaffolding removed from Parthenon - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 13th, 2025 [October 13th, 2025]
- Why is the US House speaker refusing to seat an elected Democrat? | Moira Donegan - The Guardian - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Bruce Teachout Named Ohio County Democrat of the Year - theintelligencer.net - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Trump 'only cutting Democrat programs' during government shutdown - NBC News - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Guard troops begin patrols in Memphis - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- La Nia winter is forecasted for California. What does that mean for the North Bay? - The Press Democrat - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Performative patriotism cheapens real sacrifice - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Solar for All Program Cuts Hit G.O.P and Democrat Voters Alike - The New York Times - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Assan carries the load in Greenbriers win - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- The Redwood natural wine bar is a hidden gem in Sebastopol - The Press Democrat - October 11th, 2025 [October 11th, 2025]
- Senators press Mike Johnson to swear in Democrat who could force Epstein vote - The Guardian - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- WATCH: Congressman Issa Discusses Democrat Government Shutdown on Sunday Agenda - Representative Darrell Issa | (.gov) - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Trump-backed Van Epps and Democrat Behn win Tennessee primaries for special House election - Politico - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Speaker Johnson on Day Eight of Democrat Government Shutdown: The House Passed the Clean CR to Pay Troops, TSA Agents, and Air Traffic Controllers.... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- 'We should be in Washington negotiating: Democrat calls on Speaker Johnson to bring House back - NBC News - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- The texts from a Democrat who had served in the Virginia House were explosive. In one exchange, he suggested that the chambers Republican speaker... - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Trump Republican receives blunt fact check as swearing in of new Democrat drags on - Yahoo - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Tennessee Three Democrat announces bid for Congress against longtime representative from Memphis - CNN - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Video Shutdown continues as GOP, Democrat funding plans fail to advance in Senate - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- The lone US House Democrat to vote with Republicans on the funding bill draws a primary challenge - Yahoo - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds cash lead in NJ governors race - New Jersey Monitor - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Tennessee is ready for a new kind of Democrat: Aftyn Behn on nomination in Congress race | PHOTOS - Clarksville Now - October 9th, 2025 [October 9th, 2025]
- Blue city crime drives Trump DOJ battle with major Democrat-led county on concealed carry rights - Fox News - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Democrat accuses Mike Johnson of suspicious delay of swearing-in to avoid Epstein vote - MSNBC News - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Speaker Johnson on Day Six of Democrat Government Shutdown: There are a Handful of People in the Country Who Could Reopen the Government, and Theyre... - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Hakeem Jeffries: No Democrat on Capitol Hill is pushing for health care to undocumented immigrants - NBC News - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- Meet the Texas Democrat who's running against Governor Greg Abbott for a second time in eight years - CBS News - October 7th, 2025 [October 7th, 2025]
- The retiring Senate Democrat who could end the shutdown - Politico - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Mike Johnson hasnt sworn in this new Democrat. Is it because she wants to release the Epstein files? - The Guardian - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Trump wields axe over 'Democrat Agencies' as blame game rages on Capitol Hill - BBC - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- Youngkin says Democrat AG candidate Jay Jones must 'step away in disgrace over texts about former GOP leader - Fox News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- E&E News: Trump says hes weighing cuts to Democrat Agencies - POLITICO Pro - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- AP reader question: Have agencies violated the Hatch Act by using Democrat-blaming language online? - AP News - October 4th, 2025 [October 4th, 2025]
- In Trump country, a Democrat critiques Trump and talks of succeeding him - NPR - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Trump to meet with Project 2025 architect on cutting Democrat agencies amid government shutdown live - The Guardian - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Trump to talk with Vought about which Democrat Agencies should be cut - Politico - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- House Democrat rages against his own party on the government shutdown - Axios - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- What will Congress do after the shutdown? We asked a Republican and a Democrat - NPR - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- I have no idea how long government shutdown will last, House Democrat says - NBC News - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Schumer shut down government for radical Democrat reasons: Brooke Rollins - Fox Business - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- In Trump country, a Democrat critiques Trump -- and talks of succeeding him - VPM - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Mike Johnson Accused of Delaying Democrat's Swearing In to Avoid Epstein Vote - Newsweek - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Transcript: This Democrat Thinks Party Will Thump Trump in Shutdown - The New Republic - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Republicans refuse to swear in newly elected Democrat, delaying success of Epstein petition - The Hill - October 2nd, 2025 [October 2nd, 2025]
- Illegal alien arrested by ICE found registered as active Democrat voter in blue state - Fox News - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Democrat Holladay announces run to fill Arkansas House seat vacated by Wing - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- New Jersey governor debate revealed truth about Democrat Mikie Sherrill. And its not good - Fox News - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- Opinion: Just read the Bill of Rights - Delta Democrat-Times - September 30th, 2025 [September 30th, 2025]
- The House Has a New Democrat and a Shrinking GOP Margin - Bloomberg.com - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Harding takes over, grabs win over OBU - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Dejected fans head to exits early - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Arkansas is supposed to be better than this - Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- SRJC football team outlasts Laney 24-14 in overtime - The Press Democrat - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Worth the wait - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Portland latest city threatened with US troops - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Hogs extend offers to twin big men - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Night in Vegas winner for Ronald McDonald House - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette - September 28th, 2025 [September 28th, 2025]
- Top House Democrat Jeffries blasts Trump, says GOP is afraid of releasing the Epstein files - MSNBC News - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- Caving on Democrat Healthcare Demands Would Be a Costly Giveaway - National Taxpayers Union - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- Sonoma County plastics recycling startup Resynergi says it is moving out of California - The Press Democrat - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- Republicans own U.S. government shutdown if it happens, top Democrat Jeffries warns - CNBC - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- If federal government shuts down, Republicans will own it, Oregon Democrat Janelle Bynum says - Oregon Public Broadcasting - OPB - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, called on Jamie Dimon, JPMorgans chief executive, to provide detailed... - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]
- Van Jones: Comey no Democrat favorite, but investigating him totally insane - The Hill - September 25th, 2025 [September 25th, 2025]