Ezra Klein on Why the Democrats Are Too Afraid of Replacing Biden – The New Yorker
On Thursday night, President Joe Biden gave a widely panned performance in the debate against Donald Trump, causing panic throughout the Democratic Party and raising questions about whether Biden should continue on as the Partys candidate. Biden is already trailing Trump in national and swing-state polls, in which voters have registered significant concerns about the Presidents age. (He will be eighty-two in November.) At the debate, Biden stumbled over his words, at times appeared to blank out entirely, and had trouble giving clear answers, likely entrenching these concerns among voters. (A CNN poll taken immediately after the debate found that fifty-seven per cent of viewers said they had no confidence in Bidens ability to lead the country; for Trump, the number was forty-four per cent.)
More than four months ago, the Times columnist and podcaster Ezra Klein wrote a column titled Democrats Have a Better Option than Biden, in which he called on the Party to convince Biden that he should not run again. He worried that Biden was on a losing path, felt that it was imperative for Democrats not give in to fatalism about the race, and argued that the Party should push for an open convention in which another candidate could be chosen. The column caused a splash, but obviously did not lead to Biden being significantly challenged in the primaries, or to a major push for him to step aside.
On Friday morning, I spoke by phone with Klein about what happened on Thursday, and what Democrats should do now. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.
Why do you think what you suggested should happen in February didnt happen?
I think it is very hard to get around an incumbent President who wants to run for relection. I dont think anything that I argued in February was particularly unusual or not felt by many Democrats, including many top Democrats. I got a lot of feedback on that piece, and the feedback I almost never got was, Youre wrong. Joe Biden is a strong candidate. Hes the best candidate the Democrats could put on the ballot in November.
What people said was, There isnt another option. There isnt another option because he wont stand aside. There isnt another option because, even if he did stand aside, Kamala Harris isnt strong enough. There isnt another option because you dont think Kamala Harris would win in a convention, and if she didnt win in a convention it would tear the Party apart. To me, the blockage in peoples minds was not so much whether Bidens age had become a really substantial risk on the campaign trail or even within the Presidency but in imagining that the Party was strong enough to do something else and take on the risk of doing something else.
There was a collective-action problem. Any individual politician or Joe Biden staffer or adviser or confidant who stepped out of line and said privately or publicly that Joe Biden shouldnt run faced real career risk. Whereas saying nothing did not pose a risk.
Challenging an incumbent President is generally seen as both hard for the challenger and potentially damaging for the incumbent. One thing that does occur to me, though, which I wish Id thought of at the time of your column, is that when the incumbents main issue is his or her age, theres an added benefit to challenging them: something like this debate could have happened during the primaries, which I really think wouldve shaken things up.
I had planned that exact piece out with my editor, and I was going to run it right after the midterms. Then the Democrats did so unexpectedly well in the midterms that you could feel the possibility of a challenge drain out of the Party. My understanding was that people were at least considering entering a primary for this exact reason, and might have been amenable to the argument that Democrats needed a primary simply to see if Joe Biden was still capable as a campaigner. There was no chance of it after the Democratic performance in 2022, which was called uponincorrectly, I thinkas proof that I was wrong not just about Democrats but about Joe Biden.
Something were seeing this year is Biden trailing congressional Democrats. Theyre leading in the key Senate races, in states where he is running behind. So its clear now that people are more willing to vote for your median Democrat than for Joe Biden, and its very plausible in my view that the delta on that is age.
The problem was, again, the Party. I want to keep coming back to this: the Party wouldve needed to make a more strategic decision. The Party wouldve needed to do things that were uncomfortable to manage downside risk. Instead, there was a cohering around the best possible case for Joe Biden. Sometimes people say that I walked my piece back after the State of the Union, but thats not how I think about it. What I said after the State of the Union was, essentially, If this Joe Biden shows up every day until the election, people saying what Ive been saying are going to look a little silly. But he was not going to show up that way every day between now and the election.
I dont really know why his State of Union was so strong. But the hope that you were going to get that guy every day when anybody who watched his speeches and his performances regularly knew you were not getting that guy every day is a problem.
Even if you didnt watch his speeches or performances, hes eighty-one years old, and youre probably not getting that performance every day simply because hes eighty-one.
I think this is something that Democrats have been treating as a superficial issue as opposed to a substantive issue.
Right, one of the most interesting things you talked about in your piece and have talked about since is this idea of whether Biden is too old to run for President versus too old to be President. How do you think about that now?
The point I made in the piece, which is something I heard from a lot of people around Joe Biden, is that he was perfectly up to the job of the Presidency. I would be told, although Im not in these meetings, that if you were in meetings with him, youd see he was sharp, he was making good decisions, that people had no concerns about his ability to perform the role in terms of decision-making. His ability to perform the role in front of cameras was another thing. So I made this point that he did seem up to the job of the President, but that he did not seem up to the job of campaigning for President.
I thought about that line a fair amount after I published the piece because I felt the situation was a little less clear than I made it sound. The way I put it now is that I think its a blurrier distinction. I dont think Joe Biden is senile. I dont think hes making bad decisions. But I do think, first, the ability to communicate is part of the job of the President. In the classic formulation in political science, the power of the Presidency is the power to persuade. Joe Biden has become quite limited in his persuasive capacities. Part of the job of the President is to instill confidence in people that you have the manifold problems of the world under control.
The Democratic Party has become this party of normalcy and of systems and of institutions in a way thats different from when I got into politics, when business was very aligned with the Republicans. You really have this alignment in which every major institution in American life has become much closer to Democrats. So, in a way that I think is a little bit complicated for them, this party that is on the one hand the party of reform is also the party of preserving what we have. Its a party of both conservation and change.
Read more here:
Ezra Klein on Why the Democrats Are Too Afraid of Replacing Biden - The New Yorker
- Is This the End of the White Working-Class Democrat? - The New York Times - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Column: Shes won twice in Trump country. What can this Democrat teach her party? - Los Angeles Times - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Democrat Derek Tran's lead over GOP's Michelle Steel grows to 102 votes in the 45th House District - LAist - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- The Democrat Picking a Fight With His Party Over Transgender Rights - The New York Times - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Opinion | How a progressive Democrat won in a swing state that went for Trump - The Washington Post - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- I Grew Up a Democrat. It Didn't Stop My Family From Being Othered - Newsweek - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Schumer now pleads for bi-partisanship having promised to railroad Democrat agenda through - Fox News - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Rantz: Washington Democrat pushes bill that makes being homeless a civil right - MyNorthwest - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Opinion | A Democrat shows how to deal with Musk beyond reflexive criticism - The Washington Post - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Key Democrat says the ethics report on Matt Gaetz should be made public - NBC News - November 19th, 2024 [November 19th, 2024]
- Democrat Jim Costa projected to win reelection in California's 21st Congressional District - KFSN-TV - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- How a Democrat Turned Back the Trump Tide on Long Island - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Democrat Tim Ryan open to 2026 election run; whos battling for Ohio House speaker - Signal Cleveland - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- The three mountains in the way of any Democrat comeback - Fox News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Even Democrat voters rejected leftist policies and politicians in the most surprising places - Fox News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Democrat 'Excited' and Wary of RFK Jr. Nod as Trump Health Chief - Newsweek - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- For SC voters who split their ticket, its not about Democrat or Republican - South Carolina Daily Gazette - November 12th, 2024 [November 12th, 2024]
- Meet the 20-year-old Democrat running a multimillion-dollar PAC targeting Gen Z - NBC News - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- Harriss Coattails in New Hampshire May Be Helping Democrat in Governors Race - The New York Times - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- Local activist who connected Latino communities to the outdoors remembered for huge heart - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- NY Democrat Mondaire Jones' comeback bid threatened by Israel tensions and GOP "stealth operation" - Salon - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- Column: This Democrat pulled off one of the countrys biggest upsets. Can she win again in Trump country? - Los Angeles Times - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- Will it rain on trick-or-treaters? Heres the Halloween weather forecast for the North Bay - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - October 31st, 2024 [October 31st, 2024]
- Suspect in Arizona Democrat Office Shootings Had Over 120 Guns: Officials - Newsweek - October 24th, 2024 [October 24th, 2024]
- 'Vindictive': Democrat in tight Senate race blasted by GOP rival for swipe at McDonald's after Trump visit - Fox News - October 24th, 2024 [October 24th, 2024]
- Prominent Muslim Democrat Demands Answers After Being Kicked Out of Harris Rally in Michigan - Democracy Now! - October 24th, 2024 [October 24th, 2024]
- Democrat Lucas Kunce injured reporter while shooting. Gun safety experts had these concerns - Kansas City Star - October 24th, 2024 [October 24th, 2024]
- Beyonc, whose Freedom is Harris campaign anthem, is expected at Democrat's Texas rally on Friday - The Associated Press - October 24th, 2024 [October 24th, 2024]
- Democrat Running to Replace Mark Robinson Joked About Bleaching His Office - Newsweek - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Democrat Flips Mayor's Seat in Area Trump Won by Over 10 Points - Newsweek - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Republican Andrews is running for a third term against Democrat Mays-Sims in Iowa House District 43 - Iowa Public Radio - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Can ire over abortion ban finally put a Democrat on the Texas Supreme Court? - The Texas Tribune - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Cardinals primed for a dramatic makeover of their starting pitching rotation - Belleville News-Democrat - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Heres What That Means for the Election. - The Wall Street Journal - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Can Montanas last rural Democrat survive another election? - The Conversation Canada - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Colorado District 5 candidate, Democrat River Gassen, on creating a strong and supportive economy, Space Force and speaking her truth - Colorado... - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Marlene Midget Named Ohio County Democrat of the Year - Wheeling Intelligencer - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Take an inventory of blessings this fall - Cassville Democrat - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- 100-year-old Dallas County Democrat has a plan to vote this year - Bleeding Heartland - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Hochul is fueling police surveillance technology in NY: How $20M became $127M in two years - Democrat & Chronicle - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- More Americans Identify as Republican Than Democrat. Heres What That Means for the Election. - MSN - October 9th, 2024 [October 9th, 2024]
- Democrat group pumps $600,000 into Indiana governor race as analysts revise forecasted result - Indiana Capital Chronicle - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- A Democrat Could Actually Beat Ted Cruz in Texas - Bloomberg - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- 'Willful coverup': Democrat in key House race hit with ethics complaint that could derail campaign - Fox News - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Democrat Kelvin Datcher wins race to replace former Alabama Rep. John Rogers - AL.com - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Democrat Trisha Calvarese hits Lauren Boebert over PACT Act vote in ad featuring veteran's widow - coloradopolitics.com - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Bay Area Democrat draws inspiration from family history to mobilize youth vote - CBS San Francisco - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Is Texas about to put a Democrat in the Senate? - The Week - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Conservative with fringe views, Democrat with union background face off in race for state Legislature - The Spokesman Review - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Saving lives should not be partisan, saving lives should not be Democrat or Republican saving lives is the most American thing we can do together. -... - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Democrat Candidate for Assembly Associated With And Praised Taliban Sympathizers - Nevada Globe - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- In this week's Bloomfield Democrat... - bdemo.com - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Sonoma Countys Measure J is bringing in a tsunami of funding. Heres where the money is coming from - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- This House Democrat is backing Trump's 10% tariff plan and he even has a bill to get it done - Business Insider - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- A Populist Democrat Fights to Survive the Trump-Fueled Populist Wave - The Wall Street Journal - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Ohio governor contradicts Democrat narrative with damning revelation about bomb threat 'hoaxes' in Springfield - Fox News - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Democrat LaMonica McIver wins special election to succeed late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. - New Jersey Monitor - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Amid internal GOP feud in the 5th District, Democrat Gloria Witt sees her chance - Virginia Mercury - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Alert: Democrat LaMonica McIver wins special election to U.S. House in New Jersey's 10th Congressional District - Darien Times - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- A Democrat in a key House race is running on his law career. It could be a liability. - POLITICO - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Kari Lake is underperforming Donald Trump in Arizona, a boon to Democrat Ruben Gallego - Cronkite News - September 19th, 2024 [September 19th, 2024]
- Senator Mike McGuire to be Honored as Humboldts Democrat of the Year for 2024 - Redheaded Blackbelt - September 14th, 2024 [September 14th, 2024]
- New Jersey Democrat George Helmy sworn in as replacement for Menendez in the Senate - The Associated Press - September 14th, 2024 [September 14th, 2024]
- 'Missing' signs at DNC call out Democrat in key Senate race who skipped convention with disputed excuse - Fox News - August 22nd, 2024 [August 22nd, 2024]
- Warner Is Working to Convene Democratic Senators to Talk About Biden's Future - The New York Times - July 6th, 2024 [July 6th, 2024]
- The UK's new prime minister Keir Starmer hoping for a Democrat in the White House, preparing for Trump - The Conversation - July 6th, 2024 [July 6th, 2024]
- Fourth Democratic House member calls on Biden to exit 2024 race after clips of ABC interview released - New York Post - July 6th, 2024 [July 6th, 2024]
- Biden to Democrats calling for him to quit: Im staying in the race - Roll Call - July 6th, 2024 [July 6th, 2024]
- 'I'm terrified': As Biden visits Wisconsin, Democrats worry and wonder if they should replace him - The Washington Post - The Washington Post - July 6th, 2024 [July 6th, 2024]
- The Blue-Collar Democrat Who Wants to Fix the Party's Other Big Problem - The New York Times - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Biden wins crucial support of Democratic governors to continue campaign: Were going to have his back as it happened - The Guardian US - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Democratic congressman says Biden needs to exit the race - NPR - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Jared Golden unsure whether any Democrat can beat Trump in November - The Washington Post - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Democrats begin to consider Harris at the top of their ticket - The Washington Post - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Jeffries seeks to stem House defections, for now, as Democrats panic over Biden - The Washington Post - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Democrats in Congress Weigh Whether to Stick With Biden - The New York Times - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Rep. Doggett calls on Biden to withdraw. He's the first Democrat in Congress to do so - NPR - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Joe Biden withdrawal: Why Democrats should have an open convention. - Slate - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Polis will be on Biden call with fellow Democratic governors - Colorado Public Radio - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]
- Another important reason Biden should drop out of the race. - Slate - July 4th, 2024 [July 4th, 2024]